[HN Gopher] Steve Ballmer's incorrect binary search interview qu...
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       Steve Ballmer's incorrect binary search interview question
        
       Author : jgrahamc
       Score  : 216 points
       Date   : 2024-09-03 13:12 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (blog.jgc.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (blog.jgc.org)
        
       | Eumenes wrote:
       | Didn't Steve Ballmer start off at MSFT essentially in a biz ops
       | role, supporting execs when the company was super small?
       | Interesting how he became technical as the company grew. Pretty
       | rare.
        
         | re-thc wrote:
         | > Didn't Steve Ballmer start off at MSFT essentially in a biz
         | ops role
         | 
         | Yes, business manager.
         | 
         | > Interesting how he became technical as the company grew.
         | 
         | That's not clear from this. This shows he knew some concepts as
         | part of managing different teams in the company.
        
           | hi-v-rocknroll wrote:
           | Ballmer was good at riding coat-tails of others as a
           | supporting figure but eventually started running MSFT into
           | the ground. He demanded to personally evaluate every M&A
           | activity >$10M. No bueno.
        
         | sudo_bang_bang wrote:
         | He graduated with a mathematics degree from Harvard so the
         | concept of binary search would have likely been familiar to
         | him. But you're right, as far as I can tell, he never did any
         | technical work like programming in his career.
        
           | ezero wrote:
           | Not only that, he was also better than Gates at math. From
           | the acquired podcast episode on Microsoft:
           | 
           | > Ben: He's gregarious. Anyone who's ever met Steve or seen a
           | video of Steve, you are well aware that this man has a
           | presence. But the thing that people don't know about him is
           | he is so unbelievably analytical. Steve is the guy that
           | outscored Bill Gates on the Putnam exam.
           | 
           | source: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/microsoft
        
         | __coaxialcabal wrote:
         | It's surprising the extent to which the tech community overfits
         | towards classifying intelligent individuals as either
         | exclusively technical or nontechnical. Recruiters are
         | especially weak in this regard, e.g., if you've ever been
         | effective at sales or people leadership, you are likely
         | ineffective at swe or data science or vice versa. The most
         | intelligent folks I've worked with are very diverse in their
         | interests and abilities. You can see this in an elementary
         | school GT classroom. Why does the tech community believe this
         | is always an either/or proposition?
        
           | re-thc wrote:
           | > The most intelligent folks I've worked with are very
           | diverse in their interests and abilities.
           | 
           | > as either exclusively technical or nontechnical
           | 
           | This applies outside of tech or generally in any role e.g. if
           | you're a backend engineer they assume you don't know frontend
           | or if you're a marketing specialist you're not good at sales.
           | 
           | I never get it either. We're people not machines but most
           | people have this assumption like we're a game character - you
           | get a job / trait and that's it.
        
           | Eumenes wrote:
           | Because we live in an era of specialization. Look at a
           | companies job page - even startups have silos. I don't think
           | this is strange or unusual. Its hard to be good at
           | everything. If I'm spending 8+ hours per day doing sales,
           | where am I going to find the time to be good at other things?
           | Most people are working for the weekend or to spend time with
           | their families. Diving into far off subjects related to work
           | isn't always exciting.
        
           | aeonik wrote:
           | Technical is just a code word for "having a detailed
           | understanding of something".
           | 
           | Almost everything is technical if you focus on it long
           | enough, because almost everything is complicated.
           | 
           | This is because almost everything interacts with the real
           | world, which is hellishly complicated and detailed.
        
             | andrewflnr wrote:
             | That's a (potentially) good perspective, but not how people
             | use "technical" in the wild.
        
           | hi-v-rocknroll wrote:
           | Yep. Pigeonholing by narrow thinking individuals who aren't
           | accustomed to ambiguity or lateral thinking, especially when
           | exhibit talents in more than just technical areas, a person
           | becomes "nontechnical" to a nonzero proportion of technical
           | people while remaining "too technical" for a large fraction
           | of business people.
           | 
           | PS: Recruiters generally come from the same cloth as car
           | sales and sports, so they're not usually going to be the
           | sharpest pencils in the drawer.
        
           | thaumasiotes wrote:
           | > You can see this in an elementary school GT classroom.
           | 
           | GT?
        
             | shepherdjerred wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gifted_education
        
       | toolz wrote:
       | Title is wrong in implying Balmer is incorrect and the article
       | shows that the title is wrong. If clickbait is misleading, then
       | this is worse than clickbait, no?
       | 
       | > Ballmer states that the answer is "No" for two reasons:
       | firstly, because he can pick numbers that'll be the most
       | difficult for you...
       | 
       | The article goes on to show that there are numbers where a binary
       | search always has the guesser paying $1
        
         | kevincox wrote:
         | But if you know the number picker is going to choose these
         | numbers you can optimize your algorithm.
        
           | paxys wrote:
           | How do you know that?
        
           | toolz wrote:
           | but you don't know. Only he knows that he's going to pick
           | numbers the binary search will fail on and he states as much
           | as his reason that you shouldn't play the game.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | Also the number only exists in Ballmer's mind, so if he wanted
         | to, he could change it to be unfavourable should you make a
         | lucky guess.
         | 
         | Here, you can play the game with me. Higher. Lower. Higher.
         | Higher. Lower. Correct. Six guesses, you owe me $1.
        
           | dannyw wrote:
           | Yes, and a SWE should consider external inputs untrusted
           | until proven otherwise.
        
           | pxx wrote:
           | your point is valid but you cannot have a static answer list.
           | 
           | if I started off by guessing 50 twice you're cooked. or 50
           | and 52.
        
           | FabHK wrote:
           | 0$, as posed.
        
         | Closi wrote:
         | Although Ballmer could still be incorrect, because a
         | 'sufficiently logical' player would also presumably know that
         | he could pick numbers that'll be the most difficult to find via
         | binary-search, so by the same logic you could also meta-game
         | it, and assume any number that can be found in 5 steps with a
         | binary search is immediately out. This would narrow the search
         | space to only 37 numbers, which can then easily be found within
         | 5 guesses.
         | 
         | But he also knows that you know that he could pick numbers that
         | will be the most difficult... So could then pick one of the
         | numbers that actually are guessable within 5 guesses to trick
         | you.
         | 
         | But then you also know that he knows that you know that he
         | could pick difficult numbers too.
         | 
         | I'm not entirely sure if this invalidates Ballmer's advantage,
         | but I would be interested to know what the 'perfect' strategy
         | would be for this game considering the meta-game.
        
           | Karliss wrote:
           | There isn't much of metagame if number is only in Ballmers
           | mind. No matter what guesses you choose he can force you to
           | make at least log_2(100) guesses. Doing anything except
           | splitting in half will only increase amount of guesses. There
           | are two things that can change the game, requiring Baller to
           | write the number on a piece of paper before the start. Other
           | thing you could do is writing a number on piece of paper
           | yourself halfway during the game. If opponent is changing the
           | number adversarially with goal of maximizing guesses you can
           | force them to "pick" a specific number. Afterwards you can
           | open the piece of paper and claim that you actually guessed
           | the number with the first attempt.
        
             | Closi wrote:
             | This assumes Ballmer is cheating, rather than just behaving
             | adversarially but within the rules.
             | 
             | If we accept cheating is allowed, we can also potentially
             | accept other 'cheating' scenarios where the player
             | repeatedly punches Ballmer in the face until he discloses
             | the number, thus winning. Or where the player just refuses
             | to pay at the end.
             | 
             | IMO the problem is only interesting if we assume any form
             | of cheating isn't allowed.
        
               | uncanneyvalley wrote:
               | Do you want to catch a chair to the side of the head?
               | Because this is how you catch a chair to the side of the
               | head.
        
         | cwmma wrote:
         | the article focuses on the next part of that sentence
         | 
         | > secondly because the expected value of the game (assuming
         | Ballmer chooses randomly) is negative: you end up paying
         | Ballmer
        
           | toolz wrote:
           | and given that the first rule still holds where he chooses
           | hard numbers, then the expected value of the game is negative
           | (aside from meta-gaming this, which is out of scope for a
           | technical problem)
        
       | routerl wrote:
       | This write-up makes the erroneous assumption that he's choosing
       | randomly. He himself says, in this same write-up, that he's
       | choosing adversarially.
       | 
       | Nice write-up anyway, and yes, Ballmer is wrong.
        
       | coldpie wrote:
       | I'm so glad I've managed my career such that I've never had to
       | answer bullshit interview questions like this. The only purpose
       | of these is to stroke the asker's ego, they tell you nothing at
       | all about the candidate. What a waste of time.
        
         | white_beach wrote:
         | correct answer
        
         | dakiol wrote:
         | Same. I don't know if I have been lucky. I have worked with 6
         | companies in the past (startups, multinationals, consultancy
         | companies, etc.) and I have never had to answer brain teasers.
        
       | dvt wrote:
       | The (TV) interview is kind of funny because the journalist asks
       | him, after he goes through the idiotic song and dance of this
       | brain teaser: "so what did you learn about me?" This is actually
       | a very insightful question. What _did_ you learn, Mr Ballmer?
       | 
       | To which he literally has no answer: "I learned you need to step
       | back and really ask if you're going to make money on this
       | thing".. uh, okay Steve. Cool. Thanks for your contribution to
       | possibly the worst technical hiring practices in just about any
       | professional field. The technicals are less interesting than
       | seeing even he himself has no real justification for this kind of
       | intellectual hazing.
        
         | LudwigNagasena wrote:
         | He was being polite and understanding. They aren't in a job
         | interview setting, it's not a correct frame to judge. But if it
         | were, she would totally fail with that attitude of not thinking
         | through the problem. That's what his comment about stepping
         | back meant.
        
       | kibwen wrote:
       | The article implies that the interviewee _assumes_ that the
       | number is being chosen randomly, when Ballmer could actually be
       | choosing adversarially.
       | 
       | However, if the interviewee assumes that Ballmer is being
       | adversarial, then you can pick a different value as your initial
       | guess, which causes the probabilities to shift. Even the OP
       | assumes that the interviewee will start guessing with 50, but,
       | because of the way binary search works, you can select an initial
       | guess that is offset from 50 (with a randomized offset each time)
       | to defeat trivial adversarial attacks that attempt to game the
       | heuristic, while still mostly reaping the benefits of binary
       | search.
       | 
       | I'd be interested to see someone do the analysis of what the
       | optimal random-offset-selection algorithm would be to counter
       | trivial adversarial choices.
        
         | jgrahamc wrote:
         | And then if Ballmer assumes the other party assumes he's being
         | adversarial we get into game theory.
        
           | kibwen wrote:
           | The ultimate conclusion of which is likely that both parties
           | will decay to picking the secret value/first guess randomly
           | (although I'm not sure if the optimal distribution is
           | perfectly flat?), which is also something that we can model.
        
             | gcanyon wrote:
             | Seems like the distribution definitely won't be flat since
             | the guesser can randomly choose any of the numbers from 37
             | to 64 as a first guess without losing anything on the large
             | side, so Ballmer starting with any of those increases his
             | chance of having to pay out the $5. Likewise for other
             | numbers there are nuances to what can be guessed.
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | The way forward is to make Ballmer pay with time for screwing
           | with you, which gets us into geopolitics, and then using the
           | resulting MAD dynamics to make the game fair again. That's
           | how adults with keys to the nukes do it :).
        
             | InDubioProRubio wrote:
             | And then everyone gets nukes, or at least anti-matter mined
             | in some vacuum chamber copperstatue configuration.
        
           | 1123581321 wrote:
           | I'd pay $5 to watch a short film of Ballmer asking this
           | question to Wallace Shawn's Vizzini.
        
           | massung wrote:
           | Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!
        
           | cjfd wrote:
           | I have not really studied this but maybe choosing the guess
           | randomly when the number of possibilities is even is already
           | enough to counter an adversarial opponent. Note that 50 is
           | not the only 'optimal' guess in the beginning. 51 is just as
           | good.
        
             | Bognar wrote:
             | Any number between 36 and 64 should be as good!
        
           | aldanor wrote:
           | So the _actual_ problem here is to find Nash equilibrium.
        
           | leni536 wrote:
           | Yes, this is a Nash equilibrium question.
        
         | thedavibob wrote:
         | > you can select an initial guess that is offset from 50
         | 
         | Given that 7 guesses covers 128 numbers, you can offset by +/-
         | 14 without actually affecting the "worst case" of the algorithm
         | (i.e. provided you have at most 64 either side of your guess).
         | As you say, randomly selecting this offset would neuter most
         | adversarial examples (purposefully chosen to fall into the gaps
         | of binary search) and would possibly completely remove the
         | benefits from adversarial choice (though a tailored
         | distribution on offset might be required there).
         | 
         | I'd be interested in such an analysis too.
        
           | hulium wrote:
           | > Given that 7 guesses covers 128 numbers
           | 
           | I might be confused, but don't 7 guesses actually cover 255
           | numbers? I think you have to count all nodes in the search
           | tree, not only the leafs, because you can get the correct
           | number before reaching a leaf node.
           | 
           | Or more generally k guesses cover 2^(k+1)-1 numbers, e.g.
           | with one guess you get the answers correct/high/low, which
           | can cover 3 numbers)
           | 
           | Maybe there is a mistake in my thinking, because this would
           | mean you can cover 127 numbers with 6 guesses so you could
           | not lose the original game.
           | 
           | Edit: My mistake is that you still have to explicitly guess
           | even if you know the precise answer already, so you cannot
           | cover 3 numbers with 1 guess. This means 7 guesses cover 127
           | numbers.
        
             | sltkr wrote:
             | Your logic is correct but you are off-by-one. 1 guess gets
             | you 1 number, so the formula is 2^k - 1, and 7 guesses thus
             | covers 127 numbers.
             | 
             | You can also view it as a recurrence:                 f(1)
             | = 1       f(n) = 2*f(n - 1) + 1 = 2^n - 1
             | 
             | But your binary search tree example is more intuitive.
        
               | hulium wrote:
               | Yes, you are right. In this game, you can know the answer
               | after 6 guesses, but then you also have to tell him,
               | which counts as the 7th guess.
        
             | hamburglar wrote:
             | You are correct that you can know the answer in 6, but
             | actually winning requires you to "guess" that one last time
             | once you know it.
        
           | wrvn wrote:
           | That approach would still leave you weak to always picking 1
           | or 100. Without proof, I believe the optimal guessing
           | strategy would perform equal (on average) for every number,
           | to not give the opponent any standout choice (common for
           | optimal strategies, but not always the case). If my math
           | serves me right, that would be an average of log2(100) = 6.64
           | guesses for any number, which would make you lose 0.64$ on
           | average.
        
             | wrvn wrote:
             | Although upon further thinking, you could then sprinkle in
             | some binomial searches to abuse the uniformity. So the
             | -0.64$ is merely a lower bound.
        
           | furyofantares wrote:
           | I don't think you have to put your random offset all in the
           | first guess either. Maybe you could random offset +/- 7 on
           | the first guess, +/- 3 or 4 on the next, something like that.
        
         | mrgoldenbrown wrote:
         | It would not be shocking to find out a cocky interviewer posed
         | a brainteaser while leaving out a fundamental assumption, then
         | judged an answer as incorrect because it violated that unspoken
         | assumption - I can imagine Ballmer saying "no actually, you
         | have to start with a guess of 50, everyone knows that."
        
           | enneff wrote:
           | Unless the interviewer has totally lost sight of the purpose
           | of the interview, they'd recognise a candidate starting at an
           | offset from 50 as an instant pass.
        
             | ozim wrote:
             | What was the last time you were on the interview?
             | 
             | I think like 70% of interviews I ever had were like they
             | were there to prove how smart they are and how stupid I am.
             | I suppose most likely to make me feel stupid and accept
             | lowball offer.
        
               | HarryHirsch wrote:
               | Like this one:
               | https://rachelbythebay.com/w/2011/07/27/ohreally/
               | 
               | Yes, that happens, and elsewhere she goes on about
               | culture in tech.
        
               | wisemang wrote:
               | I don't doubt this happens but seems like a poor example.
               | She effectively rooted out a bullshitter. No worries if
               | you don't know how a tool works, but just say I don't
               | know. That answer was nonsensical.
        
               | HarryHirsch wrote:
               | The purpose of an interview is not to root out a
               | bullshitter but to find someone you can work with. If
               | that guy doesn't know about TCP/IP, move on to the next
               | topic. If the guy has poor attitude, be polite. Just
               | don't waste time with making fun of the candidate, it
               | does not reflect well on interviewer and company.
               | 
               | For what we know, the guy may well have been employing
               | "test-taking strategies", and he may have been led down
               | the garden path by the interviewer.
               | 
               | There's far too many posts in Rachel's blog where she
               | goes on about "the one", who knows much better already,
               | and here she channels the asshat that she complains about
               | when she encounters him at work.
        
               | treatmesubj wrote:
               | Is the guy's response really that far off?
               | 
               | Each router checks its table for the destination, and if
               | it doesn't know it, queries the next upstream router, its
               | default route, the next hop. Each router likely
               | ultimately informs you of the hand-off via a packet of
               | some sort, and your then traceroute sends a ping/ICMP to
               | each hop to learn how far away they are.
               | 
               | He maybe could've been pushed to expand on what he did
               | know in more detail, but it seems like she just threw out
               | SNMP as misleading bait, and he maybe mixed up ICMP and
               | SNMP. She is right to call herself a troll, but wow,
               | that's crazy to say she caught the guy in a lie of
               | insanity.
        
               | HarryHirsch wrote:
               | _Is the guy 's response really that far off?_
               | 
               | When you think about it, the candidate isn't even that
               | wrong. Back then, at university, a certain professor
               | would explain the oral exam to the candidate at the
               | beginning. He would explain that he would incrementally
               | increase the difficulty and skip from area to area. The
               | goal would be to find the limits of the student's
               | knowledge, the student would walk away feeling terrible,
               | and he, the professor, didn't enjoy the experience.
               | 
               | That's how it ought to be, but here? OK, candidate
               | doesn't know ICMP well, next topic, no need to waste time
               | and dig in.
               | 
               | Here's another unfavourable thought: some people with
               | abusive childhoods react very badly to dominance
               | displays, and here is Rachel engaging in just that. One
               | wonders what had happened before.
        
               | SonOfLilit wrote:
               | Downvoted for jumping from legitimate criticism of her
               | interview methodology to very personal and completely
               | baseless accusations. This is not the internet I want to
               | live in.
        
               | HarryHirsch wrote:
               | _This is not the internet I want to live in_
               | 
               | Storytime! In a previous workplace a disagreement over
               | fire safety with escalated into uncalled-for and
               | unwelcome dominance behaviour from my supervisor. All
               | attempts to deescalate were rebuffed, and now there is
               | litigation from multiple plaintiffs, this person took out
               | her sociopathic tendencies on many people. With a minimum
               | of professional detachment or a HR department with a clue
               | the peace would have been kept. (Yes, a few months later
               | the fire marshal issued a code violation, as predicted.)
               | You may not wish to live in that internet, but we live in
               | a world where sociopaths are overrepresented in
               | leadership positions.
               | 
               | Something rubs me here just the wrong way. Rachel
               | complains about ageism and contempt for women in tech,
               | and with good reason, and then she takes it out on an
               | overenthusiastic candidate who can't read the room.
        
               | stickfigure wrote:
               | The stepwise increasing TTL is the fundamental mechanism
               | that makes traceroute work. Any answer that omits this is
               | so vacuously incomplete that it might as well be
               | considered wrong.
        
               | treatmesubj wrote:
               | fair enough, I guess the TTL exceeded response is how you
               | learn about each hop
        
               | rpdillon wrote:
               | I strongly agree with the sibling comment that this is a
               | perfectly valid interview question.
               | 
               | One of the biggest red flags in an interview is if I ask
               | a question and the person doesn't know how to say 'I
               | don't know', because it suggests there's a big risk that
               | if I assign them a task in their day-to-day work, they
               | won't tell me if they feel unprepared to tackle it.
               | That's a far bigger issue than not knowing that
               | traceroute uses variable TTLs to figure out the timing
               | along the route.
        
               | hamburglar wrote:
               | And in particular, this was rampant at Microsoft in the
               | Ballmer days.
        
               | NickC25 wrote:
               | One of the worst interviews I ever had was just like
               | that.
               | 
               | Often times, the "gotcha" part is just dumb and
               | nonsensical, yet gives the interviewer(s) a sense of
               | misguided (false) superiority, and wastes everyone's
               | time. I would venture to say that 99% of the time it's
               | complete un-indicative of how effective the candidate
               | would be in the role.
               | 
               | Referring to my aforementioned bad interview - the
               | question, after all the technical stuff had been cleared
               | (this was for a junior frontend dev role) - they asked
               | "imagine a car is broken and not running. how would you
               | go about figuring out how to fix it?". Being someone
               | whose brother and father enjoyed fixing cars, I asked
               | every question about the problem with the car - how it
               | was used, what sort of car it was, what the issue with
               | the car was, what prior problems the car had, etc. I got
               | a bunch of useless answers. After I exhausted all my
               | questions, the interviewers told me I had failed. Why?
               | One interview brought out a tiny hotwheels car with a
               | missing wheel out of his pocket, and proclaimed to say
               | "you didn't ask if it was a real car, it's a toy car, of
               | fucking course it's not supposed to run like a real car!"
               | while laughing hysterically. How on earth does that
               | indicate if a junior frontend dev can do their job or
               | not? Stupid.
        
               | moritonal wrote:
               | Great interview from a certain perspective. You knew for
               | sure (if you had a choice) that you didn't want to work
               | for this specific person.
        
               | dllthomas wrote:
               | > How on earth does that indicate if a junior frontend
               | dev can do their job or not?
               | 
               | Playing devil's advocate, maybe a junior frontend dev
               | that doesn't trust that they understand what someone is
               | asking for and pushes back on bits that should be obvious
               | will perform better (in some contexts?) than one that
               | doesn't.
               | 
               | For a junior role in particular, though, it really
               | doesn't seem like that should be the threshold and it
               | sounds like it was delivered poorly on top of that.
        
               | JackFr wrote:
               | Might be good as an exercise in a workshop on
               | requirements gathering, as part of an interview
               | absolutely stupid.
        
               | more_corn wrote:
               | I hear what you're saying, but really, this is a stupid
               | question and a waste of everyone's time. Instead you
               | could give a real big report that has insufficient
               | information or that contains a red herring to an improper
               | assumption. The interviewer could then measure if the
               | candidate properly pushed back, exposed an improper
               | assumption and asked relevant clarifying questions. Like
               | one would do at the actual job exhibiting the
               | characteristics the question purports to measure.
               | 
               | The car example is just stupid. Could you image how
               | idiotic you'd sound beginning by asking is it a real car?
               | You're basically accusing your interlocutor of operating
               | in bad faith (which they were).
        
               | amarcheschi wrote:
               | That just feels like playing chess with a pigeon
        
               | crazygringo wrote:
               | I had an interview at a major tech company with a similar
               | thing, for a more managerial role.
               | 
               | The question was to estimate how many vacuum cleaners
               | there were in the city we were in.
               | 
               | Fine, I did some estimation of how many vacuum cleaners
               | per household and per office, across how many households
               | and offices. Standard stuff.
               | 
               | Then the guy starts laughing and saying I'd failed
               | because I didn't include discarded vacuum cleaners in
               | landfills. Or the vacuum suction devices they put in your
               | mouth at the dentist's office. And so forth. And then had
               | to spend the next five minutes listening to him "teach
               | me" how not to make assumptions. So I acted all polite
               | and tried to fake "oh gosh thank you so much for
               | enlightening me!"
               | 
               | Shockingly, I got the job, which required unanimous
               | approval from all interviewers. Never met him again, and
               | to this day I still have no idea whether this was
               | supposed to be a test of estimation (which was easy to
               | pass), a test of not making assumptions (which is dumb,
               | but OK fine I failed), or a test of being appropriately
               | professional and smiling in the face of complete bullshit
               | (which I'd say I passed with flying colors).
               | 
               | I mean, in my professional life I've certainly had my
               | fair share of customers and managers and coworkers who
               | spout bullshit and you really do just have to lie with a
               | smile and say "oh my gosh you're so right thank you for
               | explaining that, I appreciate you so much!" Where you
               | need to make them feel smart.
               | 
               | On the other hand, I just don't think he was thinking
               | that far ahead.
        
               | mgkimsal wrote:
               | Is the landfill actually 'in' the city, or in a rural
               | area outside the city limits?
               | 
               | I had a similar interview years ago - something like "how
               | many windows are there on houses in our town?". Wasn't
               | quite that, but I asked up front if "houses" meant just
               | physical standalone houses, or if they meant living
               | spaces, including apartments/dorms, etc. I got
               | clarification, gave some estimate with some reasoning,
               | and was then told I was the only person of the 8 they'd
               | interviewed that had asked any clarifying question at
               | all, which apparently impressed them enough to make an
               | offer.
        
               | extr wrote:
               | Yes, I have used questions like this before for junior
               | roles and the notes for the interview were something
               | like:
               | 
               | - Asked/did not ask clarifying questions
               | 
               | - Did/did not (or could not, on prompting) verbally walk
               | through their reasoning
               | 
               | - Could/could not articulate which assumptions they felt
               | were most important/why
               | 
               | Nothing about the actual content of the question itself,
               | or if your answer was approximately correct (I usually
               | did not know even the ballpark of the correct answer
               | myself). I will say I did sometimes write down if
               | candidates make comically bad assumptions. Like assuming
               | the population of the USA was 1 Billion people. It's a
               | fine line on what is "comically bad" but like, if you are
               | interviewing for a startup of 20 people and you use
               | $20B/year as the revenue assumption with no wink. That's
               | a red flag. Lmao.
        
               | crazygringo wrote:
               | Yeah, I think there's a possible pitfall with using this
               | as an interview technique though.
               | 
               | When you're in a real situation with a customer or user,
               | you ask tons of questions. You use a lot of common sense
               | to figure out what they _really_ want, what 's actually
               | important, etc.
               | 
               | But often times these interview questions -- like how
               | many vacuum cleaners in a city -- don't need any further
               | questions asked. The idea that you'd count vacuum
               | cleaners in landfills, or dental suction devices, is just
               | silly. In real life, if someone wanted to know about the
               | vacuum cleaners in landfills too, _they 'd tell you in
               | the first place_.
               | 
               | If an interviewer wants to see if someone can ask
               | clarifying questions, they'd better come up with a
               | scenario where it would make sense to ask them in a
               | normal conversation. Scenarios that are genuinely
               | ambiguous to anyone with common sense.
               | 
               | Otherwise interviews become this weird cargo-cult thing
               | where you have to learn that interviewers present common-
               | sense clear questions, but you have to ask silly
               | clarification questions that you wouldn't in real life,
               | just so somebody can check a box that you asked
               | questions.
        
               | extr wrote:
               | Yeah I mean the vacuum landfill thing is stupid. The
               | point was never to try to trip people up, there's no
               | wrong answer (or question), just find out if they could
               | recognize ambuiguity. "Let's try to estimate the amount
               | of pet food sold each year in the USA." -> "Dogs and cats
               | too?", "In terms of dollars or pounds of food?" type of
               | stuff. This was for analyst roles - basically your whole
               | job would be something similar to this where you're asked
               | ambiguous questions and you need to translate that into a
               | semi-rigorous analysis, infer intent, etc. I hate to say
               | it but if you didn't realize that going into the
               | interview, you were probably not a good fit as an analyst
               | in the first place!
        
               | EricE wrote:
               | It goes both ways - one interview turned into an acronym
               | gotcha session. I quickly figured out that was not a
               | place I would want to work; another friend that ended up
               | working their later confirmed my suspicions.
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | This is why successful organizations shadow interviews.
        
               | jliptzin wrote:
               | Yea, they're pointless. The amount of time someone spends
               | on a truly difficult and important problem is maybe 0.1%
               | of their job. And usually it's better to just call in a
               | domain expert anyway if it's something that important.
               | The other 99.9% - do they show up on time and work hard,
               | do they care about the company, do they fit in with the
               | rest of the team, etc, mostly can't be determined in a
               | short interview anyway.
        
               | enneff wrote:
               | It's been a long long time since I was interviewed for a
               | job, but I have conducted a lot of interviews since then
               | and any signal that the candidate has engaged with the
               | question and has interesting thoughts about it is a huge
               | plus.
               | 
               | FWIW I would never ask these kinds of gotcha questions. I
               | just give simple programming problems and talk through
               | solutions with the candidates, and then throw in
               | complications to the questions to make them more
               | interesting and test more areas of the candidates
               | knowledge and problem solving abilities. Yknow, like what
               | happens on the job every day.
        
               | ozim wrote:
               | Good for you, as you look for someone to work with, not
               | someone to cut down their offer.
               | 
               | I am basically doing the same as I also interview people
               | - but I also check the market from time to time as I am
               | not company owner.
               | 
               | But I basically don't care about the offer if company
               | pays guy much or not it is not my money and I only win if
               | I get a smart, nice person who knows his job to work
               | with.
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | > I see you passed this guy after a single guess. Why was
             | that?
             | 
             | > Well, he guessed 69, sir, so I assumed he was doing some
             | serious game theoretic calculations
        
               | enneff wrote:
               | I didn't mean he passes the entire interview, just that
               | he saw through the question and it's probably best to
               | move on to something else.
        
             | krisoft wrote:
             | Not really. The question was "Should you accept to play
             | this game?" That is not a question where a number is an
             | expected answer.
        
               | enneff wrote:
               | I'm assuming the context of making the guess is
               | explaining the thought process. Otherwise how would that
               | even come up?
        
           | tasty_freeze wrote:
           | I worked with a guy like this. He told me this story to
           | impress me with how incisive he is. Instead it told me he is
           | an egomaniac. His story went something like this, I don't
           | recall the exact details:
           | 
           | "I was interviewing a candidate who said he had experience
           | programming on an IBM/370. So I asked him if you perform a
           | character edit format instruction in EBCDIC mode with the
           | leading zero specifier and the numeric value is too great to
           | fit into the allocated field, after the instruction
           | completes, what is the state of the program status word
           | overflow field?" Then trounced the guy for not knowing. The
           | thing is the guy asking the question happened to have worked
           | on that instruction when he worked at Amdahl.
           | 
           | One thing to know is the IBM 360 and descendant family had a
           | commercial instruction set option that, in a single
           | instruction, could take a format value and generate a string
           | output that followed some format specification, kind of like
           | sprintf but with even more options.
        
             | jareklupinski wrote:
             | > if you perform a character edit format instruction in
             | EBCDIC mode with the leading zero specifier and the numeric
             | value is too great to fit into the allocated field, after
             | the instruction completes, what is the state of the program
             | status word overflow field?
             | 
             | "Is the computer operating on American electricity, or
             | European?"
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | _African_ or European. Everyone knows that.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | African and European electricity could be operating it
               | together...
        
               | Quekid5 wrote:
               | How do you know so much about electricity?
        
           | jb3689 wrote:
           | Ah, the B type developer. Knows enough to find exciting and
           | interesting problems but doesn't know how to distinctly
           | separate a type C (who can't solve the problem at all) from a
           | type A ( who knows the problem in and out and knows "it
           | depends"). Not all that different to me from midlevel dev who
           | learns about concurrency/metaprogramming/etc and starts using
           | it as a tool for everything. Just enough to be dangerous.
        
             | itronitron wrote:
             | They like to pretend their asking high level system design
             | questions while actually quizzing candidates on esoteric
             | low-level details.
        
         | corecirculator wrote:
         | Other commenters are wrong in saying that the payout is
         | different for an adversarial choice. The crux of the payout
         | derivation is: we can only cover 1 number in step 1, 2 in step
         | 2, 4 in step 3, 8 in step 4, and so on. You can choose your
         | initial number in binary search randomly, and as long as you
         | meet the above condition is met (# of possible numbers covered
         | in each step), payout should be same as 0.2
        
           | alexey-salmin wrote:
           | Your calculation assumes that probability of each number is
           | the same which is not true for adversarial choice.
        
           | dagw wrote:
           | If I 'know' that my opponent is adversarial, then I might
           | assume that he's not picking from the set of 100 possible
           | numbers, but actually from a smaller set of 'adversarial'
           | numbers, like the set that will always take 6 or 7 guesses
           | using the naive binary search approach, and I can adjust my
           | strategy accordingly.
        
             | LudwigNagasena wrote:
             | You should assume that your opponent is adversarial to your
             | specific strategy.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | If Ballmer is being adversarial, he won't pick the number at
         | the start, and always win.
         | 
         | Of course you can set up the game such that Ballmer has to
         | commit on a number at the start of the game (by sealing it in
         | an envelope or whatever), but that wasn't specified.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | they're being adversarial within the framed rules of the
           | game, not breaking the rules of the game?
        
           | jefftk wrote:
           | Ballmer opens with "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and
           | 100". If he uses your strategy instead that's a different
           | scenario.
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | That's only if you're willing to trust Ballmer to do what
             | he claims, which I wouldn't.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | Do you trust Ballmer to give you $1 in the cases where
               | he's said he's going to give you $1? If not the EV
               | calculation looks pretty bad...
        
         | Someone wrote:
         | > I'd be interested to see someone do the analysis of what the
         | optimal random-offset-selection algorithm would be to counter
         | trivial adversarial choice
         | 
         | If you know your opponent picks a number uniformly from all
         | numbers that lead to a maximum of guesses, the optimum strategy
         | is a binary search between those numbers, making sure to pick
         | one of those numbers at each turn.
         | 
         | The problem stays completely symmetric under this condition, so
         | there would be two (maybe four due to edge conditions) optimal
         | first guesses summing to 101.
         | 
         | In general, I think the trick still is a binary search where
         | each guess splits the range of options in halves of equal
         | expected/min/max cost (depending on whether you want to
         | optimize for expected/min/max cost).
        
         | auselen wrote:
         | Genuinely asking - not directly to OP of course, wasn't this
         | how people were playing the game when you were kids? Not as
         | rigorous, but you intuitively try offsets to get lucky and find
         | the number in fewer tries?
        
         | gweinberg wrote:
         | No it doesn't, it's quite clear that Ballmer can be choosing
         | adversarially. The point is that even if Ballmer chooses
         | randomly and the interviewee plays optimally given this, the
         | game still has a negative expectation value, and that is enough
         | to be sure the game is a loser for the interviewee.
         | 
         | The post never answers the question "so what is the real
         | expectation value", which is a more difficult question. But I
         | think if the interviewee chooses a number randomly from 40-60
         | as the first guess and does a binary search from there, Ballmer
         | can't really improve on choosing his initial number randomly.
        
           | baking wrote:
           | I think you did the math wrong. The expected value for the
           | guesser is $0.20 if Ballmer chooses randomly. I think Balmer
           | is saying that he can beat you if he chooses adversarially
           | and you choose the expected initial guesses.
           | 
           | I agree that if you choose your first guess somewhat randomly
           | in the 40-60 range (maybe not a uniform distribution though)
           | Balmer would be forced to choose randomly and you would be
           | back at a positive $0.20 EV. For example, you could flip 6
           | coins and add the number of heads, then flip another coin to
           | decide whether you add or subtract the number of heads from
           | 50 for your starting guess. But I think you would need to
           | randomize your later guesses a bit also.
        
         | potsandpans wrote:
         | I'm not really married to this idea, but my first reaction is
         | that to assume a random number would be an invalid assumption.
         | 
         | The scenario is framed as a zero sum game: one of us wins. The
         | question is, "should you play?"
         | 
         | In order to answer, you need to be able to determine whether or
         | not there is an optimal strategy that is generally
         | successful.That should include both the assumption that Ballmer
         | has chosen a number adversarial weighed against the random
         | choice.
        
         | baking wrote:
         | You have 31 positive payout guesses (1 $5, 2 $4, 4 $3, 8 $2 and
         | 16 $1) leaving 69 other numbers with zero or negative payouts.
         | You don't want to have gaps larger than three between your
         | positive guesses, but there are 32 gaps for a total of 96
         | possibilities, or an excess of 27 over the numbers you need to
         | cover.
         | 
         | It seems like a lot of possibilities and I think you can get
         | away with a minimum gap size of one, but let's assume you do 5
         | 3-gaps at 1, 25, 50, 75, and 100 and 2-gaps everywhere else. So
         | start with 51, then 26 and 76. Then go up or down 12, then 6,
         | then 3. If you have a gap of two you flip a coin, if a gap of
         | three you pick the middle one.
         | 
         | Or if you have them write down the number and you think it has
         | double-digits you could put your 4-gaps below 20. Start with 53
         | and go up or down 24, 12, 6, and 3 (unless it is below 20, then
         | it is multiples of four.) 59 would pay you a dollar.
         | 
         | Your starting guess could be anywhere from 37 to 64 without
         | paying out more than a dollar, but if you start with an
         | extreme, then low odd numbers and high even numbers will have a
         | negative payout. However, I think you can still randomize
         | sufficiently starting with 38 and 63, e.g. 63-31-15-7-3-1.
        
           | vladimirralev wrote:
           | One can make the case for a perfectly rational adversary who
           | always avoids picking paying numbers in anticipation of the
           | opponent to exclude paying numbers successively in their
           | guesses. When the game is played with perfectly rational
           | characters the picker is doomed to select one specific number
           | and thus you always make the maximum amount. There are some
           | variations of the binary search but that can also be worked
           | around. If they are not cheating, that is.
        
         | more_corn wrote:
         | Speaking of adversarial choices, the interviewee may wish to
         | clarify that this number is an int and not a float :-p
        
         | OneLessThing wrote:
         | Okay I did the simulation. I don't think this strategy actually
         | works, but I initially thought it might like you did. One such
         | nash equillibrium my sim found was having the Ballmer player
         | mix between picking either end of the range (not always 1 or
         | 100 but around those numbers). I have the Ballmer player
         | winning with around $.85-$1.00 EV per round. The resulting
         | player strategy was to also try to start their binary search at
         | the extreme ends of the range and hope they guessed the right
         | side. It's kind of like the soccer penalty kick dynamic between
         | the shooter and goalie. Goalie wants to pick the same side,
         | shooter wants opposite sides. But with 100 choices, the goal is
         | too wide I think.
         | 
         | I now think that not constraining the players remaining choices
         | to follow binary search pattern would completely change the
         | resulting equilibrium and improve the results for the player.
         | But that would be more computationally demanding to calculate
         | because there's a strategy choice for every range of choices.
         | And also I've avoided work for 2 hours by working on this so
         | that's not great haha. I _am_ curious what not constraining the
         | player to binary search would do though...
        
       | cushpush wrote:
       | Nice, you played the game and you earned $0.20 [twenty cents].
       | Definitely a bad choice. But then you got viral on HN, and made
       | good on your investment.
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | As an interviewee my first question would be - are you going to
       | play fair, and how can I verify it?
        
         | dannyw wrote:
         | "As a SWE, I seek to understand important context first, before
         | jumping to build or code. First, I'd like to ask if you'll
         | guess randomly and fairly, or adversarially?"
         | 
         | "Secondly, when significant money is involved, I make sure to
         | verify any inputs. I'm considering the situation, not you
         | personally, untrusted. How can I verify it, or do you want me
         | to proceed assuming that's verified?"
         | 
         | Those are great questions, but it's also about how you ask it.
         | SWE is not pure engineering. Communications is vitally
         | important.
        
           | ibbih wrote:
           | wat
        
           | mupuff1234 wrote:
           | "as you, my interviewer, are a capable SWE I assume you gave
           | me all the context needed to solve the problem".
           | 
           | The interviewing game of asking clarification questions is
           | silly and should stop. In the system design portion I can
           | understand it, but not when asked a direct technical
           | question.
           | 
           | It's perfectly fine to ask followup questions with added
           | constraints or just directly say that the specification is
           | fuzzy and needs to be clarified first, but having that dance
           | around the basic specs in nonsense (as if you wouldn't know
           | if you're dealing with a 10PB array or 1kb at work).
        
             | krisoft wrote:
             | > but not when asked a direct technical question.
             | 
             | This is anything but a direct technical question though.
             | 
             | > It's perfectly fine to ask followup questions with added
             | constraints, but having the guessing game to figure out
             | those constraints is nonsense.
             | 
             | You say that. I say people being able to ask the right
             | question is one of the most important skills to be a
             | productive developer. So of course as an interviewer I want
             | to know if they can do it.
             | 
             | I don't know how it works where you are, but we don't have
             | a big book of perfectly defined specifications for our
             | work. I guess if we could get one of those that would
             | improve our productivity. But until we obtain one we will
             | keep testing candidates on their ability to ask questions.
        
               | mupuff1234 wrote:
               | Sure, and there's a way to test the ability to ask
               | questions that isn't some "gotcha" type question. As in
               | interviewer you can just say "the specifications aren't
               | clear, what questions would you might want to ask to
               | clarify them?".
               | 
               | It's not like in the day to day work you go around
               | defining specifications for every tiny function - the
               | default specification are clear from the work
               | environment.
               | 
               | Let's say you had to implement a "find dups in this
               | array" at work, you probably won't go around collecting
               | requirements for that, so asking that in an interview and
               | having the silly dance of "Oh, the interviewee didn't ask
               | if the array fits in memory or not" is silly imo - and
               | doesn't show anything other than whether the candidate
               | memorized the need to ask that or not.
               | 
               | and like I said before, fuzzy specification are more
               | suitable for the system/product design part, and can also
               | be part of the coding part, but they shouldn't appear as
               | some "gotcha".
        
               | dakiol wrote:
               | > I say people being able to ask the right question is
               | one of the most important skills to be a productive
               | developer.
               | 
               | But you never know if by asking the "right" question
               | you'll jeopardize the entire interview problem. Some
               | interviewers may have only prepared 75% of the problem
               | and haven't went through all the posibilities. If you ask
               | a question that may pose itself as a "treat" (e.g.,
               | making half the problem non-sense and therefore there's
               | no need to implement it) your interviewer may simply
               | consider you a no-go.
               | 
               | And it's not about malice, but simply that you may be
               | better prepared than the interviewer and some times that
               | leads to a no offer. I wouldn't mind working in a place
               | like that, so I don't usually ask "too clever" questions.
        
         | csmpltn wrote:
         | I guess you could just ask him to write the number down on a
         | piece of paper, and reveal you the number at the end of the
         | interview :)
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | The candidate who can ask that is already better than the
           | candidate that jumps straight into a solution. If I'm the
           | interviewer, I'd be impressed with such a candidate.
           | 
           | And frankly this is a needed skill. Candidates who
           | automatically think about adversarial scenarios tend to write
           | more defensive code, not to mention fewer vulnerabilities.
        
       | seaprune wrote:
       | I have opened the article in question. I have NOT worked through
       | the technical problem, the complications and interpretation
       | surrounding Ballmer, nor have I digested the contention being
       | presented. I am capable of these things but I am on the clock and
       | I do not value performing the work required for this particular
       | article.
       | 
       | With that said, I wanted to share the following. Perhaps it will
       | spur discussion.
       | 
       | Our leadership -- whether in our professional circumstances, in
       | our sovereign and communal circumstances, or in our choice to
       | lead ourselves; perhaps it is in these leaders that a view, or a
       | decision, or a proclamation -- perhaps it is in these impulses
       | that the world is changed.
       | 
       | Can you assign truth to an impulse? Is it a communication for
       | consideration? Is it a demand for compliance?
       | 
       | I assert that you can do so. The words were spoken. Thus, the
       | impulse was true.
       | 
       | If you desire to do so, please consider.
        
       | pbiggar wrote:
       | "Should you accept to play this game?"
       | 
       | Absolutely yes. I like games. The purpose of games is to have
       | fun. This seems like a fun game for like the first $20, a sum I
       | can afford to play a fun game for 10 minutes.
       | 
       | Then at the end, I get to say "I once lost $20 to Steve Balmer
       | playing binary search", which is a fun sentence I can dine out
       | on, and is worth more than $20 to me.
       | 
       | I feel like perhaps this is why MS under Balmer lost relevance.
       | Too busy looking at the technical and not the human.
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | I don't know why you'd make this comment... I find it hard to
         | believe you're actually stupid enough to not understand the
         | implicit "(i.e. is your expected profit greater than 0)".
         | 
         | If you answered like this in an interview I would definitely
         | not give you the job. I did actually interview someone once who
         | was like this - "How would you do this?" "Well you shouldn't do
         | it. I think you should do this other thing.". He did not get
         | the job.
        
           | LudwigNagasena wrote:
           | I would be concerned if senior stuff wouldn't speak up and
           | bring up possible technical issues. That's like half of their
           | value.
        
             | IshKebab wrote:
             | Yes... But not in a technical interview when that's
             | _clearly_ not being asked of you.
        
           | abbadadda wrote:
           | This is greyed out, but I tend to agree with the sentiment
           | that there's a right way and a wrong way to approach these
           | "EV" questions. OP was a bit harsh with the stupid comment,
           | and for SWEs EV understanding is not usually a critical
           | thing, but ultimately you're being asked about the
           | probability and the ability to make good decisions. Trading
           | firms make use of this when hiring traders (most famously
           | Jane Street and also SIG); The thinking is that if someone
           | makes bad decisions with toy games, and their thought process
           | is not analytical, they're going to make for a bad trader,
           | not making good decisions with millions of dollars on the
           | line. A good example of something that would rule out a
           | trader is: You can flip a coin, if you win you get $1m, if
           | you lose you lose $1m. Would you play? The EV is zero, but
           | the question is about bankroll management and disaster
           | avoidance. As an individual the downside risk of a $1m loss
           | (usually) significantly outweighs the upside of a $1m gain.
        
         | 23B1 wrote:
         | Underrated comment. His point was to see how they approached
         | the problem regardless of the answer, which is a much different
         | criteria than having the right answer.
        
       | dannyw wrote:
       | As with most interview questions, I'd expect this to be about how
       | you think through it and show your work. If an interviewer asked
       | this question and you found a mistake, that probably helps you
       | get the job.
        
       | zeroonetwothree wrote:
       | I believe you'd have to do a game theory analysis to actually get
       | the answer (compute the mixed strategy that produces a Nash
       | equilibrium). My intuition is that this yields <0 EV (because
       | it's already so small against a uniformly random strategy, which
       | can't be optimal) but I didn't do the calculation.
        
       | krisoft wrote:
       | It is also unclear if one has to keep playing. The expected value
       | is very different if after the fifth guess one can thank Balmer
       | for the opportunity and walk away.
        
         | tantalor wrote:
         | Good one!
         | 
         | Reminds me of the viral video, goes something like "I'll pay
         | you $20 if I can pour 2 cups of water on your head" and then
         | only pour 1 cup and walk away.
        
           | netmare wrote:
           | IANAL, but they either have to honor the verbal contract
           | (pour an additional cup AND pay $20) OR the contract is void
           | and therefore they can be sued for assault. Of course, the
           | "can" in "if I can" may be construed as "being able to", but
           | that's up to the jury I guess.
        
       | justusthane wrote:
       | Is there a name for the fallacy where you attribute your success
       | in life to your own intelligence, and thus assume that you are
       | smarter than everyone else, and that you therefor must be right
       | about everything?
       | 
       | Sort of an opposite impostor syndrome?
        
         | tcgv wrote:
         | > an opposite impostor syndrome?
         | 
         | Dunning-Kruger effect
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
        
           | dustincoates wrote:
           | Just because it's one of my pet peeves, this is not what
           | Dunning Kruger says. What it says is that people who are
           | poorly skilled in a task will overestimate their skill and
           | those highly skilled will underestimate, but not that the
           | poorly skilled estimate themselves to be better than the
           | highly skilled.
           | 
           | From the wikipedia article you link:
           | 
           | > Among laypeople, the Dunning-Kruger effect is often
           | misunderstood as the claim that people with low intelligence
           | are more confident in their knowledge and skills than people
           | with high intelligence.
        
             | tcgv wrote:
             | My response was directed specifically at the OP's second
             | question, about the "opposite" of impostor syndrome, and
             | not the first one.
             | 
             | The dunning krugger effect is widely regarded as the polar
             | opposite of it:
             | 
             | - "If the Dunning-Kruger effect is being overconfident in
             | one's knowledge or performance, its polar opposite is
             | imposter syndrome or the feeling that one is undeserving of
             | success. People who have imposter syndrome are plagued by
             | self-doubts and constantly feel like frauds who will be
             | unmasked any second." [1]
             | 
             | - "This is the opposite to the Dunning-Kruger effect. The
             | Imposter Syndrome is a cognitive bias where someone is
             | unable to acknowledge their own competence. Even when they
             | may have multiple successes they struggle to attribute
             | their success to internal factors." [2]
             | 
             | - "The opposite of the Peter Principle and Dunning-Kruger
             | effect is the imposter syndrome. This is when smart,
             | capable people underestimate their (...)" [3]
             | 
             | [1] https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/basics/dunning-
             | kruger-e....
             | 
             | [2] https://www.leedsforlearning.co.uk/Pages/Download/28541
             | a2c-3....
             | 
             | [3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/07/12/what-
             | the-p...
        
         | jarito wrote:
         | Narrative Bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrative_bias is
         | pretty close.
        
         | caster_cp wrote:
         | Fundamental attribution error
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error
        
           | a_wild_dandan wrote:
           | Let's start calling these stories FAErytales.
        
         | cranium wrote:
         | The "fundamental attribution error" is a bias where people
         | attribute their own success to their inner abilities and other
         | people success to external circumstances. (It's the reverse
         | when thinking about failure)
         | 
         | For the second part of "I'm superior and know-it-all", I'd say
         | it's good ol' jerk-ery?
        
         | greenavocado wrote:
         | Main character syndrome
         | 
         | Narcissistic Personality Disorder
         | 
         | Sociopathy
        
         | authorfly wrote:
         | A more unusual answer to this would be Luciferianism
         | Temptations..
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Luciferianism&old...
         | 
         | The temptation that when you are smart you should become the
         | guardian of the world, a world based on your learnings, your
         | ultimate truths, truths you find easier and more quickly found
         | than by the lay-person. Or so the temptation goes. It allows
         | you to license your morality; the ends justify the means. What
         | you are doing evilly now will be paid off twice-fold by the
         | good it will lead to later. Right?
         | 
         | There's the Fundamental Attribution Error and Dunning-Kruger
         | effects too. And on behavior... Illusory Superiority combines
         | with Moral Licensing (allowing yourself to be equally good and
         | evil because you "match the two") and the dis-inhibition effect
         | which people with greater success take more risks (including
         | affecting other people negatively).
         | 
         | I think these effects all sort of combine. It's not necessary
         | intelligence but power, at least as perceived by the individual
         | that seems to be a bit of an issue (e.g. the individual who
         | thinks they are smarter at doing X innately feels more powerful
         | and then has less inhibition about expressing their superiority
         | and trying to dominate over others).
         | 
         | We've all seen the person who ought to have moved on who hangs
         | on to their former glory fail to understand they are not in
         | prime condition and who tries to exert power they nolonger hold
         | too.. to me that is the real opposite of imposter syndrome.
         | it's when peoples perception of themself and social dynamics
         | don't move with the times.
        
       | alexey-salmin wrote:
       | Disappointing to see the Nash equilibrium missing from the
       | analysis.
        
         | sobellian wrote:
         | For reasons given in the comments, both players probably choose
         | a mixed strategy at equilibrium. If someone actually managed to
         | find / prove a mixed strategy equilibrium for this game right
         | there in the interview you probably couldn't go wrong hiring
         | them on the spot.
        
       | jkaptur wrote:
       | Some other interesting points here: Ballmer works hard to de-
       | emphasize and diplomatically move away from discussing this exact
       | question once it becomes clear that Chang's not approaching it by
       | thinking explicitly about binary search and expected value.
       | 
       | Which is not surprising, because she's a professional journalist!
       | It's amazing that Ballmer (like so many technical interviewers)
       | is so pleased with this question that he couldn't _help_ bringing
       | it up, even though it 's not really that relevant to Chang's
       | question.
        
       | eterevsky wrote:
       | This is a game with imperfect information, and the optimal
       | strategy for each player is probably different from "pick any
       | number at random" and "run off-the shelf binary search".
        
         | notfed wrote:
         | How is it imperfect information? Isn't each guess made openly?
        
       | hennell wrote:
       | > The question is "Should you accept to play this game?"
       | 
       | Absolutely. Best case I can tell everyone I beat Steve Ballmer in
       | a bet. Worst case I tell him to take his winning dollars out my
       | first paycheck...
        
       | mekoka wrote:
       | How you end up hiring a mathematician while looking for a
       | programmer.
        
         | jll29 wrote:
         | This can be a big problem in teams that are homogeneous: All
         | were hired using the same process, so all are maths/physics
         | majors with good analytical skills but insufficient software
         | engineering skills.
         | 
         | What often happens maths/physics majors excel at programming
         | the small, but cannot architect things in the large. As a
         | friend once put it about one such person: "He can only do it as
         | long as he can fit the whole problem in his head at once."
         | 
         | It's great to have mathematicians and physicists in the team.
         | But you for sure want a sufficient number of trained and
         | experienced software engineers as well.
        
         | slashdave wrote:
         | How you end up hiring a programmer while looking for a
         | mathematician.
         | 
         | The math in this problem is rather simple, actually.
        
       | throwaway_1more wrote:
       | I recently interviewed for a senior level role for a complex
       | domain (payments), this is an area I have more than a decade of
       | experience. The interviews went flawlessly because I know
       | payments inside out, not just in US but in UK and most EU
       | jurisdictions. The funny bit is that the role being senior,
       | influencing, soft communication skills and managing conflict are
       | even more important than the subject matter expertise and I
       | nailed those areas as well (they threw an obnoxious senior
       | manager that kept interrupting me as I calmly answered the
       | questions, the follow up was that my performance was a
       | masterclass in handling conflict). The final round was with a
       | business person who fancied himself the defacto subject matter
       | expert and kept throwing trivia questions about payments. His
       | plan was to go through as much trivia as he could until he could
       | find something to justify a no. His last question (he literally
       | stopped as soon as he got his way after this question), the
       | question was, have you got personal experience working on real-
       | time payments? I do, in more than one countries (US introduced
       | this very recently as part of fednow), he pushed me about the
       | fednow and obviously this is so new that I only have read the
       | specifications and evaluated a few vendors to decide whether to
       | build or buy. He used this as justification to make a negative
       | reommendation, claiming I don't have real-time payments
       | experience.
       | 
       | Honestly, I don't want to work in an environment like that, it
       | was a large US bank and where their biggest problems are not
       | product innovation or focusing on customer but production
       | failures! An area I have rescued several large companies in,
       | apart from payments expertise and made sure I communicated this.
       | But sometimes you get lucky and don't have to find out the hard
       | way that this place is not pleasant.
        
         | AmericanChopper wrote:
         | That SME guy sounds like an asshole, but I used to have an
         | interview technique where I'd ask increasingly specific and low
         | level questions about the candidates area of expertise until it
         | got to the point where I'd be pretty confident they wouldn't
         | know the answer off the top of their head. I wasn't adversarial
         | or rude about it, I just wanted to find out if they were
         | comfortable saying "I don't know", because not knowing
         | something is an everyday part of technical work, but not being
         | comfortable saying it can be big source of issues.
         | 
         | The candidates who were otherwise the most competent tended to
         | be the most comfortable with the I don't know answer. Getting
         | defensive about it I always considered to be a red flag.
        
           | rocketbop wrote:
           | I always say I don't know in interviews when I really don't,
           | rather than try to bluff. Some interviewers don't like this
           | though. As with the parent, perhaps that's actually a good
           | thing as you avoid having to work in a bad environment. Other
           | times though, you may be being interviewed with a bad egg who
           | you'll never actually need to work with in the actual job.
        
             | AmericanChopper wrote:
             | Yeah this is basically how I see it, there's a natural
             | selection to it. If you practice deceit and politicking in
             | interviews (and in the office), you'll select yourself
             | into, and only be able to succeed in organisations that
             | value those things. If you practice honesty and candor in
             | interviews, then you'll expect the same (over time at
             | least). In interviews I think you should just be guided by
             | your genuine values and be yourself (well, whatever version
             | of yourself you feel most comfortable bringing to the
             | office every day). It probably doesn't maximise job offer
             | conversions, but in my experience it maximises being in
             | working environments that I'm most likely to enjoy and fit
             | into well.
             | 
             | Edit: By honesty in interviews, I mean to a point. There's
             | some things you absolutely should lie about in interviews
             | (if you're confident you can get away with it). For
             | instance "what's your current salary" is a great question
             | to lie about, that they really have no business asking
             | anyway.
        
             | jimt1234 wrote:
             | I love it when interviewees say _" I don't know"_, so long
             | as they follow up with some sort of mental process
             | explaining how they'd find out the answer/solution. So, _"
             | You know, I'm not exactly sure how the new payments API
             | handles excessive requests, I've only glanced at the
             | documentation. I can look at the docs more closely and get
             | back to you."_, or even _" I don't know how the new
             | payments API handles excessive requests, but honestly, if
             | we've reached that point, I might wanna investigate that
             | specific issue first, and try to figure out why we're
             | sending so many requests."_ - either of those responses are
             | great, IMHO. The response I'm NOT looking for is basically,
             | _" I don't know [shoulder shrug]."_
        
             | eps wrote:
             | Good answer format is "I don't know, but my best guess
             | would be ..."
        
           | kgla wrote:
           | They don't know what the interviewer wants to hear. There are
           | places where every admission of not knowing something is held
           | against you.
        
             | recursive wrote:
             | If the employer would hold that against you, it's not a
             | place I'd want to work. Not sure about you.
        
               | kstrauser wrote:
               | Hard agree there. I'm quick to say "I don't know (yet)"
               | because I don't want to waste everyone's time while I
               | stumble through a bunch of made-up answers trying to
               | sound smart. If I were punished for admitting I didn't
               | know the details of something, I'd leave in a heartbeat.
        
           | citizenpaul wrote:
           | I have the same idea in interviews. they need to be able to
           | admit when they don't know or need help depending on the
           | level. However I thought about it and I think the continuous
           | "why" comes off as sort of childish or low effort. I didn't
           | want to drive off people that reasonably didn't want to work
           | in a place with a toxic culture. My solution was to ask a
           | question that was specific to the workplace but technical so
           | that it would require more information to solve. I looked for
           | answers along the lines of:
           | 
           | - I don't know - I don't have enough information based on the
           | question - I would do it this way generally but this question
           | requires employer specific information.
           | 
           | Not someone that just barreled forward and came up with a
           | defacto answer as the solution. They had to give some sort of
           | admission that they could not really solve the problem as is.
        
           | kstrauser wrote:
           | I've been on the other side of that table. The interviewer
           | stated in advance that the questions would get harder until I
           | couldn't answer anymore, and that's OK because he wanted to
           | see _where_ my knowledge stopped. That clarity made it much
           | more fun than stressful. I felt alright saying  "I _think_
           | the answer is X, but it could possibly be Y, and here 's what
           | the different implications would be".
           | 
           | But for the luvagod, please state that up front. It wouldn't
           | have been nearly so fun, or informational for the
           | interviewer, if I'd felt like I was failing a quiz.
        
             | actsasbuffoon wrote:
             | I like that idea, and I may need to steal it. I have this
             | tendency of asking candidates questions, and if I feel like
             | they're demonstrating very strong knowledge then I may toss
             | them a few extremely obscure questions for bonus points,
             | but I never expect candidates to get them right.
             | 
             | But this up-front approach of setting expectations seems
             | like a better way to go.
        
               | kstrauser wrote:
               | Please do. I think you'll get more signal, too. If I were
               | worried that I've forgotten something very basic I'm
               | expected to know, you're not going to learn much about me
               | other than that I don't do my best work during
               | interrogations. Tell my I'm not expected to know a thing,
               | and then there's lots of room to talk about it, and I can
               | show you that maybe I'm at least familiar with the ideas
               | even if I've forgotten the particulars.
        
             | lokar wrote:
             | I do this, but with the goal to find a specific thing they
             | don't know in an area they do know. Then I want to see them
             | work out what a reasonably possible answer would be
        
               | kstrauser wrote:
               | I'm 100% fine with that. I had one interview where we
               | ended up talking about the best data structures for a
               | visual editor to store text files in-memory. It wasn't
               | related to my day job at all, but I walked away feeling
               | like I'd learned something, and the interviewer got to
               | watch me reason my way through unknown territory to see
               | how I handle such things. That was fun. I have no idea if
               | I got the "right" answer or not, but it was at least
               | defensible, and I stumbled across some ideas that he
               | seemed to find unexpected and interesting. I ended up
               | getting the job.
               | 
               | What made it enjoyable was me knowing that I wasn't
               | expected to know the gory details of how text editor
               | internals work.
        
           | zerr wrote:
           | Remember that you are talking to humans, they are flexible.
           | You were being adversarial. If you could explain them in
           | advance what you were trying to "read between lines", I'm
           | pretty sure most/all of them would have changed their
           | answers. So what you were supposing that was
           | unfixable/permanent, apparently is fixable within 1 minute
           | (of explanation).
        
             | AmericanChopper wrote:
             | Interviewing is by no means the perfect way to assess a
             | candidate, but ultimately that's what the purpose is. If I
             | just tell candidates what I want them to say upfront, then
             | why even bother with it at all? I want to assess what
             | qualities they have that I want/don't want, and what
             | qualities they don't have, as best I can. They don't need
             | to be perfect. Skills can be trained, personality
             | characteristic much less so. People are flexible enough
             | that some of them could spend one hour flexibly pretending
             | to be the candidate I'm looking for, but that's not the
             | purpose of the exercise for me.
        
               | zerr wrote:
               | What you should care is a behavior. You should be open
               | about what is expected. People change behavior all the
               | time depending on the situation/group/company/context.
        
               | AmericanChopper wrote:
               | People can change the behaviour for brief periods. But
               | who they are day in day out is going to be pretty
               | consistent. Telling people how I would want a good
               | candidate to behave during an interview doesn't help at
               | all with candidate selection. An inclination towards
               | saying things they think people want to hear is a
               | characteristic I'd like to select out of my candidates as
               | well, so perhaps I've been killing two birds with one
               | stone here...
        
               | zerr wrote:
               | > People can change the behaviour for brief periods.
               | 
               | This is a false assumption. Especially generalizing the
               | behavior in such an adversarial setup as a job interview
               | to a regular day to day work/life.
               | 
               | > Telling people how I would want a good candidate to
               | behave during an interview
               | 
               | You should tell them the rules of the game. The thing is,
               | with interviews, there are already predefined
               | assumptions, such as not knowing something takes a point
               | from you, so people avoid this. In your case, you are
               | altering these assumptions without disclosing it. So
               | people might already had changed their behavior for the
               | interview specifically - avoiding admitting not knowing
               | something.
        
           | giancarlostoro wrote:
           | > because not knowing something is an everyday part of
           | technical work, but not being comfortable saying it can be
           | big source of issues.
           | 
           | I'm honestly never afraid to say those words, if someone
           | doesn't want to hire me because I said it, I dodged a bullet.
           | I'll go where the devs and leads are sensible people.
        
           | more_corn wrote:
           | My first interview at a FAANG company was so awesome. The
           | interviewer said "I'm going to keep asking you questions till
           | you can't answer anymore. That way I learn the limit of your
           | knowledge. If I can't it's because your knowledge in that
           | area exceeds mine."
           | 
           | This framing has helped me ever since. It helped me
           | emotionally to recognize that finding the limits of one's
           | knowledge is not a bad thing, it helped me get the job, it
           | helped me interview people, it helped me hire people who knew
           | more than me.
        
           | asveikau wrote:
           | I remember some experiences where an interviewer thinks they
           | are doing a deep reach for something they think should be an
           | "I don't know", but it happens to be something you do know.
           | Sometimes they think you're bullshitting or arrogant for
           | this.
           | 
           | Judging people and getting an accurate read on people is
           | hard. Often people are overconfident in their ability to do
           | it.
        
         | potamic wrote:
         | > they threw an obnoxious senior manager that kept interrupting
         | me as I calmly answered the questions
         | 
         | This is a red flag. To me this signals that a company not only
         | has a toxic culture, but embraces it. Such places attract
         | personalities who love conflict and once there are enough
         | people, they set the culture.
         | 
         | What doesn't get said often is that conflict is a failure of
         | leadership. Often all it takes to resolve conflict is for one
         | very senior leader to snap their fingers and say, "Guys, I want
         | you two to make this happen". But what happens is that
         | leadership is either far too disconnected from the ground to
         | align their teams, or they constitutionally advocate conflict
         | within their teams in the name of competitiveness. Either way,
         | such places can be hell to work in.
        
           | cjblomqvist wrote:
           | Personally, I don't like this kind of thinking that it's a
           | failure of leadership first and foremost. Yes, of course
           | leadership can both work proactively to prevent conflict, as
           | well as try to minimize/react to situations. But, what about
           | the conflicting people? Shouldn't they (in most situations),
           | bear the most responsibility to not end up/turn a situation
           | into a conflict? Sometimes I get afraid of comments that (in
           | my interpretation) imply that basically everything bad that
           | happens is the fault of leadership (management). To me that
           | breeds a culture where ICs are taught to not own their
           | situation, which I believe is very very dangerous (to
           | everyone involved).
           | 
           | Maybe I'm just interpreting your comment wrong :)
        
             | mulmen wrote:
             | As an IC leadership picks my coworkers and my projects for
             | me. Why should I be made responsible for the consequences
             | of _their_ decisions? What do you think leadership _does_
             | do if not build successful teams? If I am expected to get
             | along with everyone on my team then I expect to be allowed
             | to make hiring, firing, and prioritization decisions. At
             | which point I'm now leadership and we don't need dedicated
             | leaders.
        
           | talldrinkofwhat wrote:
           | The way I read it:they inserted the manager as a litmus test
           | AGAINST aggression / toxic culture. Kind of like when a
           | psychology test is given, the __thing__ they're trying to
           | measure is always one level removed / abstracted to avoid
           | subjects gaming the system. I suppose deceptive practices in
           | interviews don't bode well, but I could see the argument
           | given the interviewee could be deceptive (something that this
           | site complains about a lot with upper management /
           | ChiefBullshittingOperatives etc.)
        
             | 93po wrote:
             | I think the point is that deliberately trying to piss
             | someone off and annoy them is a super childish and
             | ridiculous thing to do and is indicative of a place I
             | wouldn't want to work. Interviewing is already stressful
             | and terrible enough without deliberately being antagonized.
             | Most people are not going to go off on someone doing this,
             | they're just going to be turned off by the entire process
             | and decline to go forward to the interview or hiring
             | process.
             | 
             | I think a good comparison would be your romantic partner
             | "testing" you by asking their friend to try to sleep with
             | you and see if you try to go through with it. This is
             | toxic, manipulative, sociopath level behavior.
        
         | rexreed wrote:
         | In an environment like that you'll be respected a lot more as a
         | consultant and paid advisor, even if you provide generic and
         | mediocre advice, than as an employee providing high quality
         | expertise. Toxic management loves overpaid external consultants
         | and advisors more than their own, much lesser paid internal
         | staff.
        
       | elromulous wrote:
       | Given that the number is not being picked randomly, this is more
       | a game theory problem than a software problem.
        
       | wolfi1 wrote:
       | about the probabilities: say Steve's number is 59. I say 50,
       | Steve says higher, so there are just 50 numbers left and the new
       | probability is 1/50, I say 75, Steve says lower, so the
       | probability is 1/24 (otherwise it would be 1/25), and so on
        
       | spullara wrote:
       | I wrote similar code to show that as long as you choose your
       | starting number randomly you will have positive EV. Not sure how
       | they kept using this interview question without realizing this.
       | 
       | https://x.com/sampullara/status/1810088483425558630
        
         | LudwigNagasena wrote:
         | I think they were using it just fine because they don't say or
         | in any way imply that the choice is random.
        
       | ckemere wrote:
       | I really am curious about the Nash equilibrium solution. I assume
       | that as a commenter has mentioned, for the guesser it involves
       | returning random numbers near the binary search. But I'm curious
       | if for the picker it involves a uniform or non uniform initial
       | distribution?? I'm sure someone on HN knows/can explain?
        
       | readyplayernull wrote:
       | Slowly and for the span of many years I've come to realize that
       | binary search is an amazing problem solving tool, specially on
       | systems that are too big and complex to debug.
       | 
       | For example, recently a colleague had a problem with a rendering
       | tool for Figma, of which we don't have the source code. The tool
       | would take too long exporting a specific design. The team mate
       | tried changing things randomly for days to no avail. Each try
       | would take hours and sometimes crashed the browser.
       | 
       | The solution I gave him was to remove half of the elements and
       | check how that affects the exporting time. Then keep repeating
       | for the groups that still failed. In a matter of hours he found
       | the element that caused a seemingly infinite loop.
        
         | authorfly wrote:
         | It shocks me that people don't think to do this more quickly
         | generally (even intuitively).
        
         | indrora wrote:
         | In the networking classes I took, we used binary search to
         | determine where a problem was occurring, but with a slight
         | twist: Each step away from the end device (e.g. workstation,
         | etc.) take _two_ steps upwards in the network. This broadened
         | your scope easily but allowed for very fast refinement of
         | "These are fine, but this is broken".
        
         | a57721 wrote:
         | I recall a story about a private mailing list with ~1000
         | participants, where someone was leaking all the messages to the
         | public. To quickly catch the responsible subscriber, the admin
         | used binary search and selectively altered the messages by
         | inserting an extra blank character somewhere.
        
         | roninorder wrote:
         | In the old days of DHTML when I was in my early teens this was
         | the way I debugged very messy JS scripts (like multi-level
         | menus). Remove some code - see if it still breaks, remove more,
         | and so on.
        
         | Salgat wrote:
         | In electricity we do the same. Measure continuity at the
         | halfway point to see if the wire is broken on that half. Rinse
         | and repeat.
        
       | rawgabbit wrote:
       | I believe what Ballmer wanted to hear are clarifying questions.
       | 
       | Eg. Can I stop at any time? If yes, I will stop before I go into
       | the negative. If I cannot stop but must continue the game until I
       | guessed the right number, I will most likely lose money. Then go
       | into a simple computation of XY terms where X is the probability
       | and Y is the payout or loss for maybe a dozen terms.
        
       | chihuahua wrote:
       | Another stupid gotcha:
       | 
       | Ballmer states the question as "I'm thinking of a number between
       | 1 and 100." He does not state that the number is an integer. If
       | he's thinking of anything other than an integer, you're unlikely
       | to be successful in finding it via binary search.
        
         | tyilo wrote:
         | He also didn't state that the number is always in the set {59},
         | so you will always win 5 dollars.
        
       | more_corn wrote:
       | Is it really wrong though? In this case maybe you could game the
       | system.
       | 
       | What if you combine binary search and game theory?(knowing that
       | he's trying to beat me and that binary search is my best strategy
       | I have information reducing the randomness of the selection. I
       | know Ballmer is going to choose worst case numbers like 58)
       | 
       | begin with binary search to narrow down the range, then within
       | the range guess the binary search worst case answers. It's still
       | not guaranteed to win, but might be fun for the chance of taking
       | his money.
       | 
       | Although leading by telling him that the worst case for the
       | optimal algorithm of binary search on n=100 also gets you the job
       | at Microsoft which is worth more than the two bucks you might
       | earn playing the game.
        
       | surfingdino wrote:
       | How come their software is so shit if they are so good at coming
       | up with clever interview questions?
        
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