[HN Gopher] Inductive or deductive? Rethinking the fundamental r...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Inductive or deductive? Rethinking the fundamental reasoning
       abilities of LLMs
        
       Author : belter
       Score  : 90 points
       Date   : 2024-09-02 00:49 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | hydrox24 wrote:
       | Is there a good reason to exclude abductive reasoning from an
       | analysis like this? It's even considered by at least one of the
       | referenced papers (Fangzhi 2023a).
       | 
       | Abductive reasoning is common in day-to-day life. It seeks the
       | best explanation for some (often incomplete) observations, and
       | reaches conclusions without certainty. I would have thought it
       | would be important to assess for LLMs.
        
         | soferio wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abductive_reasoning
         | 
         | Is abductive inference synonymous with bayesian inference?
        
           | keiferski wrote:
           | Here's a good page to read on that:
           | 
           | https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/abduction/#AbdVerBayConTh.
           | ..
        
           | randcraw wrote:
           | I like to think of abductive reasoning as the basis for
           | science that explains natural processes that happened in the
           | past -- like astronomy and geology and evolution -- where
           | experiments are too big to conduct or processes too slow to
           | observe in real-time. So we propose mechanistic explanations
           | for nonobvious outcomes like the formations of stars, or
           | motion of large land mass via plate tectonics or glaciation,
           | or long-range organism speciation over millennia. That's the
           | role for abduction, to explain how all that happened.
        
           | User23 wrote:
           | No, but agreement with priors is one way one might choose
           | between possibilities.
           | 
           | For example suppose you go outside and the streets are wet.
           | Perhaps it rained, or perhaps someone drove a fire truck
           | around spraying water all over the streets. You might select
           | the former because of its higher prior probability.
        
         | refulgentis wrote:
         | My instinct is it is a distinction without a difference in this
         | context. i.e. if deductive is "I watched the cue ball hit the 8
         | ball, therefore, the 8 ball is moving" and abductive is "the 8
         | ball is moving towards me, therefore the cue ball must have hit
         | it. I cannot claim to have deduced this because I did not
         | observe it", LLMs cannot observe the situation, so any
         | deduction (in the binary induction/deductive sense) must be
         | done by abduction.
        
       | jcims wrote:
       | LLMs don't feel like a whole brain, they feel like the impulsive
       | side that gets filtered by other processes.
        
         | eightysixfour wrote:
         | While there is sometimes an exaggeration of the differences, I
         | have always found LLMs to behave like (and have many of the
         | weaknesses of) the left hemisphere of the brain as described in
         | books like "The Master and His Emissary." Considering the left
         | is the language center, this shouldn't be surprising.
        
         | AdieuToLogic wrote:
         | > LLMs don't feel like a whole brain ...
         | 
         | Because they are not.
         | 
         | LLM's are a better form of Bayesian inference[0] in that the
         | generated tokens are statistically a better fit within a larger
         | context.
         | 
         | 0 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference
        
           | stavros wrote:
           | This strikes me as saying "Brains aren't brains, they're
           | merely a collection of neurons that output some voltage in
           | response to their input voltage".
        
             | suprjami wrote:
             | You're comparing the physical item with the reasoning
             | capabilities of that item.
             | 
             | A popular LLM joke at the moment is "How many Rs in
             | strawberry?"
             | 
             | You, a human being, understand this question. The purpose
             | of the activity is to count the letter R in that word and
             | give the one correct answer.
             | 
             | LLMs don't understand any of that. They don't know what
             | words are, what letters are, what numbers are, what
             | counting is, that a question can have one definite correct
             | answer or many answers, what a question is, nor what an
             | answer is.
             | 
             | They break your input into tokens and then look at the most
             | likely set of output tokens given your input. That's all.
             | 
             | If you train a model on enough sensible input tokens and
             | sensible responses then the output will mostly seem human
             | and sensible. But it's never reasoning.
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | They very much do understand words, letters, etc. Why do
               | you think otherwise? Because of one trick question?
        
               | suprjami wrote:
               | You are fooled into thinking that producing a set of
               | output tokens which mimic actual human input and output
               | tokens displays understanding. It doesn't.
               | 
               | "How many Rs in strawberry?" is not a trick question.
               | That's about as straight and factual as a question could
               | be.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >"How many Rs in strawberry?" is not a trick question.
               | 
               | To a system that sees letters and words, sure. To a
               | system that doesn't, you're just asking a blind man to
               | count how many apples are on the table and patting
               | yourself on the back for his failure. It just doesn't
               | make any sense to begin with.
               | 
               | And this is before the fact that human intelligence is
               | rife with absurd seeming failure modes and cognitive
               | biases.
               | 
               | It's frankly very telling that these token related
               | questions are the most popular kind of questions for
               | these discussions.
               | 
               | This is no testable definition of reasoning or
               | intelligence that will cleanly separate LLMs and Humans.
               | That is the reality today. And it should make anybody
               | pause.
        
               | kortilla wrote:
               | > you're just asking a blind man to count how many apples
               | are on the table
               | 
               | Which input is it you think an LLM doesn't have to be
               | able to count the number of letters in a word you
               | literally provide it
        
               | isaacfung wrote:
               | The text is converted to embeddings after tokenization.
               | The neural networwk only sees vectors.
               | 
               | Imagine the original question is posed in English but it
               | is translated to Chinese and then the LLM has to answer
               | the original question based on the Chinese translation.
               | 
               | It's a flaw of the tokenization we choose. We can train
               | an LLM using letters instead of tokens as the base units
               | but that would be inefficient.
        
               | daveguy wrote:
               | By that definition the LLM literally does not see
               | anything. LLMs predict tokens. That's it.
        
               | isaacfung wrote:
               | It sees embeddings that is trained to encode semantic
               | meanings.
               | 
               | The way we tokenize is just a design choice. Character
               | level models(e.g. karpathy's nanoGPT) exist and are used
               | for educational purpose. You can train it to count number
               | of 'r' in a word.
               | 
               | https://x.com/karpathy/status/1816637781659254908?lang=en
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | The LLM sees tokens, and predicts next tokens. These
               | tokens encode a vast world, as experienced by humans and
               | communicated through written language. The LLM is seeing
               | the world, but through a peephole. This is pretty neat.
               | 
               | The peephole will expand soon, as multimodal models come
               | into their own, and as the models start getting mixed
               | with robotics, allowing them to go and interact with the
               | world more directly, instead of through the medium of
               | human-written text.
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | Humans have many well-documented cognitive shortcomings
               | and failure modes. Does that mean we don't reason either?
        
               | suprjami wrote:
               | We aren't talking about a human mind which operates in
               | unexpected or ways which don't conform with society.
               | Don't bring an appeal to neurodivergence to an LLM
               | argument.
               | 
               | We are talking about a computer program whose operation
               | we understand, can observe, and can debug. Modern LLMs
               | certainly take a lot of human effort to do this, but it
               | can be done.
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | This isn't about neurodivergence. Every single human
               | suffers from a long list of cognitive shortcomings. We
               | just call them things like "optical illusions" and find
               | them interesting, but don't then go on to make silly
               | claims like "humans can't reason".
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | Intelligence is a vast spectrum of capabilities. There
               | are people who function normally but cant't recognize
               | faces. There are people who can't see or understand
               | anything on their left side. Even savantism is an example
               | where some brains have nearly superhuman capabilities in
               | one area, but are almost mentally retarded in other
               | areas, like common sense, and yes even letter counting.
               | All the letter counting failure shows is that maybe all
               | LLMs lean a bit more towards autistic brains than towards
               | the actual average human brain.
        
               | jcims wrote:
               | Ask it this.
               | 
               | "Please spell the word strawberry with a phonetic
               | representation of each letter then tell me how many 'r's
               | are in the word strawberry?"
               | 
               | It's gotten the answer right every time I've tried.
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | Another one is to just ask it to spell it out with dashes
               | in between each letter. If anyone's wondering, it then
               | gets it right because that changes the tokenization,
               | changing how the model actually "sees" it.
        
               | davnn wrote:
               | ChatGPT answer: There are *two* "R"s in the word
               | "strawberry."
        
               | AdieuToLogic wrote:
               | >> A popular LLM joke at the moment is "How many Rs in
               | strawberry?"
               | 
               | > ChatGPT answer: There are _two_ "R"s in the word
               | "strawberry."
               | 
               | Given enough instances of the "LLM joke" in a training
               | data set, the joke itself having a consistent form
               | (sequence of tokens) and likely followed by the answer
               | having a similarly consistent form (sequence of tokens),
               | the probability of the latter being produced as quoted is
               | high.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | There is a lot of broken English on the internet and yet
               | LLMs are better at English than the average native
               | speaker. This failure mode has nothing to do with the
               | training data.
        
               | viraptor wrote:
               | > They break your input into tokens and then look at the
               | most likely set of output tokens given your input. That's
               | all.
               | 
               | That's humans as well, possibly. This description gets
               | repeated over and over and is factually correct, but we
               | still don't know if brains do anything more. The "it's
               | not reasoning" may be true, but it doesn't follow from
               | just that description.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | > They break your input into tokens and then look at the
               | most likely set of output tokens given your input. That's
               | all.
               | 
               | That isn't right: the pre processor provides a lot of
               | material on strawberries and counting r's, which is then
               | pretending to the question...and then they predict the
               | next sentence as an answer to the question. The model by
               | itself doesn't know anything, it it just a statistical
               | processor of context, just tokenizing the question and
               | using the model to predict the answer would actually give
               | you less than a wrong answer, it would be gibberish. It
               | messes up on the question because the context it
               | retrieves based on the question text isn't useful in
               | producing the correct answer.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | >because the context it retrieves based on the question
               | text isn't useful in producing the correct answer.
               | 
               | "retrieves" is the wrong word. Each token (in GQA a small
               | tuple of tokens is summarized into a single token),
               | becomes an element in the KV cache. The dot product of
               | every token with every other token is taken (matrix
               | multiplication) and then a new intermediate token is
               | produced using softmax() and multiplication by the V
               | matrix. What the attention mechanism is supposed to do is
               | combine two tokens and form a new token. In other words,
               | it is supposed to perform the computation of a function
               | f(a,b) = c. The attention layer is supposed to see "count
               | r" and "strawberry" and determine the answer 3.
               | 
               | Well, at least in theory. Given the combination "count r"
               | and "r", it is practically guaranteed that the attention
               | mechanism succeeds. What this tells us is that the
               | tokenization of the word "strawberry" is causing the
               | model to fail, since it doesn't actually see the letters
               | on the character level. So it is correct to say that the
               | attention mechanism does not have the correct context to
               | produce the correct answer, but it is wrong to say that
               | "retrieval" is necessary here.
               | 
               | The reason why it doesn't make sense to label what is
               | happening as "reasoning" is that the model does not
               | consider its own limitations and plans around them. Most
               | of the work so far has been to brute force more data and
               | more FLOPS, with the hope that it will just work out
               | anyway. This isn't necessarily a bad strategy as it
               | follows the harsh truth learned from the bitter lesson,
               | but the bitter lesson never told us that we can't improve
               | LLMs through human ingenuity, just that human ingenuity
               | must scale with compute and training data. For example,
               | the human ingenuity of "self play" training (as opposed
               | to synthetic data) works just fine, precisely because it
               | scales so well.
               | 
               | Instead of complaining so much about humans trying to
               | "gotcha" the LLMs, what we really ought to build is an
               | adversarial model that learns to "gotcha" LLMs
               | automatically and include it in the training process.
        
       | AdieuToLogic wrote:
       | Large Language Model algorithms do not reason.
       | 
       | They are statistical text generators, whose results are defined
       | by their training data set. This is why the paper cited reads
       | thusly:                 Despite extensive research into the
       | reasoning capabilities       of Large Language Models (LLMs),
       | most studies have failed       to rigorously differentiate
       | between inductive and deductive       reasoning ...
       | 
       | There is no differentiation because what was sought is the
       | existence of what does not.
       | 
       | The authors then postulate:                 This raises an
       | essential question: In LLM reasoning, which       poses a greater
       | challenge - deductive or inductive reasoning?
       | 
       | There is no such thing as "LLM reasoning." Therefore, the
       | greatest challenge is accepting this fact and/or that
       | anthropomorphism is a real thing.
        
         | astrange wrote:
         | They are not statistical text generators. They are black boxes
         | wrapped in an interface part of which is a statistical text
         | generator.
         | 
         | You can write programs into transformer models and run them
         | deterministically; they aren't "statistical".
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | Can you cite the deterministic part? And I don't think fixing
           | your seeds count as making a model not statistical, though
           | yes deterministic.
           | 
           | It's also still statistical if it gives you the same answer
           | 99999/100000 times. You can definitely tune these things to
           | be much more certain about certain problems but it tends to
           | decrease capabilities in others.
           | 
           | I also don't like the term "black box." While they aren't
           | transparent they aren't completely opaque either. A big
           | reason I didn't like the term is that I feel it also
           | encourages people to not research this more. While we don't
           | completely know what's going on I see no reason we can't. Is
           | there some proof they their calculations are an unbreakable
           | encryption or is it just a hard problem. I'm pretty sure it's
           | the latter, and I think it's good to differentiate "we're
           | dumb" from "indeterminate"
        
             | taylorius wrote:
             | The issue with comprehending LLM's internal workings is
             | just that they're so big. The operation of the network
             | itself is deterministic - but it's output is a set of
             | probabilities over the value of the next token in the
             | stream. At that point you have to choose one, based on that
             | probability distribution, and then start the process again.
             | That choice is where the randomness comes in.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | Just to clarify, are you disagreing with me? Correcting
               | me? Adding context for others? I guess I'm missing the
               | intent
        
               | taylorius wrote:
               | Just adding context, elaborating a little on the
               | deterministic / statistical aspects of an LLM. I don't
               | disagree with what you said, I'm afraid - so not much
               | prospect for a back and forth :-)
        
             | astrange wrote:
             | > Can you cite the deterministic part? And I don't think
             | fixing your seeds count as making a model not statistical,
             | though yes deterministic.
             | 
             | I was thinking temperature=0, but what more do you need
             | than that?
             | 
             | (nb there is also some randomness from non-associative FP
             | operations happening in different orders)
             | 
             | > I also don't like the term "black box." While they aren't
             | transparent they aren't completely opaque either.
             | 
             | A white box is a subset of a black box here. The important
             | part is that the sampler/text generation is wrapped around
             | the transformer model and is not actually the same thing as
             | it.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | > I was thinking temperature=0, but what more do you need
               | than that?
               | 
               | Temperature isn't a thing exclusive to LLMs or ML. It's a
               | general technique from statistics where you're modifying
               | the variance of the distribution (also see truncation).
               | And as you're aware, temperature zero isn't actually
               | temperature zero.
               | 
               | So say such a thing makes something non-statistical is
               | the same as saying prime numbers don't exist because any
               | prime p * 0 is 0.                 > A white box is a
               | subset of a black box here
               | 
               | No. A white box and black box sit at opposite ends of a
               | spectrum which is just saying how much we understand
               | something. Complexity isn't what makes something a black
               | box, it's our lack of understanding that does. Of course
               | this tends to coinside, but there's plenty of extremely
               | complex things we have a great understanding of, even if
               | not to infinite precision.
               | 
               | Please take your passion and use it to drive you to learn
               | about these things deeper. It's actually the same advice
               | I give to the LLM fanboys who think it's AGI. But trying
               | to dispel that myth without correct information makes it
               | harder. It muddies the waters. These topics are extremely
               | complex and the issue with the ML field is itself a
               | hypocritical claim that it is easy (scale is all you need
               | while calling these machines black boxes). I mean we can
               | talk about the elephant in the room but certainly Von
               | Neumann has said enough.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | > No. A white box and black box sit at opposite ends of a
               | spectrum which is just saying how much we understand
               | something.
               | 
               | So it's a subset, because "understanding something" is a
               | refinement of the state of "not understanding something"
               | - you can just pretend you don't know what's happening in
               | that part of the system and it is now a black box.
        
               | desumeku wrote:
               | Semantic word games aren't a crowd-winning form of
               | argument.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | It's worse when you play that semantic game to make your
               | point stronger (changing your original meaning) and
               | willfully misinterpreting the other person. Everyone
               | loves being willfully misinterpreted
        
         | stavros wrote:
         | I really dislike these non-sequitur arguments of "LLMs do not
         | reason, because <detail on how they work>", as if a detail on
         | how they work unequivocally proves the impossibility of
         | reasoning.
        
           | quantadev wrote:
           | I've noticed that on HackerNews about 80% of all debates or
           | discussions where people disagree, boils down to a
           | disagreement about the definition of a word.
        
             | fedeb95 wrote:
             | feel free to extend to other contexts. It was basically
             | Socrates' argument.
        
             | throwawaytemp29 wrote:
             | That is certainly true, for some definition of 80%.
        
           | slashdave wrote:
           | I see. Well, I claim my pet rock can think. What do you mean
           | it doesn't have brain cells, what kind of argument is that?
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | My pet silicon rock was processed by TSMC in a design by
             | Nvidia, and does this trick called inference that very much
             | does look like thinking. Who made yours?
        
               | Y_Y wrote:
               | I deem your rock to be disqualified on the basis of its
               | performance clearly having been enhanced by doping.
        
             | Quiark wrote:
             | "This alien super-computer made from entangled iron atoms
             | clearly is not thinking because it doesn't have neurons"
             | 
             | you mean like this?
        
               | desumeku wrote:
               | ChatGPT - Our very own alien super-computer!
        
         | gaganyaan wrote:
         | Define reason before making grandiose claims.
        
           | quantadev wrote:
           | I think "reasoning" is the best word in the English language
           | that I know of to describe what LLMs are doing. Lots of
           | people disagree because for about 2000 years that word always
           | implied consciousness, and LLMs definitely don't have
           | consciousness.
        
             | gaganyaan wrote:
             | Define consciousness before making that claim either.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | I'm fine with the standard dictionary definition in this
               | case. :P
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | There's as many definitions as there are dictionaries,
               | but let's try picking "awareness". LLMs are aware of many
               | things, so they are conscious of those things, meaning
               | they display some level of consciousness.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | Nice one. Now do "qualia"
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | Qualia is a silly god of the gaps style argument. There's
               | no difference between "seeing red" and "having your
               | neurons tickled so that you think you're seeing red".
               | 
               | People really don't understand consciousness, but it's
               | actually quite simple when you realize that the question
               | isn't "is this conscious?", it's "what is this conscious
               | of?". A rock is not conscious of anything, because it has
               | no state that represents anything. A sunflower is
               | conscious of the sun's position, because it has state
               | that represents that. A cat is conscious of much more,
               | such as "this mouse is food". An LLM is conscious of much
               | more, but less than a human.
               | 
               | The LLM is a model that is conscious of many things, as
               | experienced through the medium of human text.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | The fact that we can tell even from an EEG (a grossly
               | inaccurate measurement of brain activity) whether a
               | person is conscious or unconscious, indicates there's a
               | physical reality to it, which might be able to be
               | understood by science some day.
               | 
               | I think Qualia is a wave phenomena, and all wave
               | phenomena simultaneously can be described as "existing"
               | and "not existing" as follows:
               | 
               | Think of a football stadium "wave". It has a beginning,
               | ending, location, velocity, etc., all being
               | scientifically measurable observables. Yet I ask you
               | "Does the wave exist, or is it merely people in various
               | states of arm positions?" There is no right or wrong
               | answer. This is the nature of waves.
               | 
               | So if you want to argue consciousness "does not exist" I
               | say fine, that is a valid "perspective", just like the
               | denial of the existence of any other wave phenomena is a
               | valid perspective. However keep in mind also that the
               | entire universe is also made of waves.
        
             | HeatrayEnjoyer wrote:
             | It's not possible to know if _anyone_ has consciousness,
             | other than them themselves.
             | 
             | We must be *very* careful before making authoritative
             | statements about who and what has qualia.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | The logic goes the other way. The claim that is
               | extraordinary is that a rock with electricity has
               | consciousness. Nothing else we've built has shown
               | evidence of consciousness and there's good explanations
               | for the results we see without needing consciousness.
               | 
               | Sure, it's still debatable for us humans (the term isn't
               | well defined) but that doesn't change the direction of
               | required proof.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | Any assertion has a burden of proof, you are likely
               | referring to cultural/colloquial norms/beliefs on the
               | matter.
               | 
               | There is cultural/normative truth, and then there are
               | various stricter/technical interpretations (using forms
               | of logic other than binary, which causes reality to
               | appear very differently), and making such distinctions is
               | typically culturally "discouraged" (it is rude, pedantic,
               | _not what HN is for_ , etc).
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | Consciousness is not binary.
               | 
               | The burden of proof does have direction. It's in the
               | direction of the more complicated thing. Do you think a
               | rock is conscious? What about lightning? If you're
               | 99.999% of people, then the answer is no. So if you want
               | to claim AI is conscious you need make the claim where
               | inanimate becomes animate. And you know what they say
               | about extraordinary claims... But personally I don't
               | believe in ghosts, even those in machines
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | See my other comment too, but I agree. Rocks and
               | lightning aren't conscious of anything, because they have
               | no state that represents anything. Amoeba are conscious
               | of some things, because they have state that represents a
               | tiny slice of the world. Cats are conscious of much more,
               | then LLMs and humans in turn.
               | 
               | It's not about animate vs inanimate, it's about models
               | that represent something.
               | 
               | There's also some confusion because we have limited
               | language here. A person can be "unconscious", but that
               | doesn't mean they've lost their world model. It's just
               | currently not executing.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | Unconscious brains appear to be functioning normally as
               | far as all of science can tell, except for one big
               | difference: Brain Wave frequencies. Only the lower
               | frequencies exist. Higher frequencies are scientifically
               | proven to be required for consciousness. You can call
               | that a meaningless correlation that happens to be totally
               | inconsequential, but most neuroscientists strongly
               | disagree with that.
               | 
               | EDIT: I mean neuroscientists know brain frequency is more
               | than an accidental correlation with consciousness.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | > because they have no state that represents anything.
               | 
               | Are you sure about that? Both have lots of representation
               | to them. Rocks have their atomic structures and you can
               | easily view this as code. You can also view lightning as
               | a representative of the intersection of cloud and ground
               | states.
               | 
               | The point I'm making is that representation is not
               | enough. Storage (or memory) is not enough even recall is
               | not enough. If it is, then any mechanical process is.
               | Because you can build computation machines out of nearly
               | anything. You can build memory out of almost anything.
               | And the hello world python program I wrote has both!
               | 
               | You can argue scale, but we see animals with much smaller
               | scale than these ML models perform unambiguous reasoning
               | tasks and critical thinking. You can then argue
               | architecture and data, but then that's not just scale.
               | 
               | The problem with all these people making claims is that
               | they don't consider base assumptions and they don't
               | follow the consequences of the model (your mental model
               | of what is consciousness) is and must mean! So many
               | people argue that they are working from "first
               | principles" but I don't see anyone writing down their
               | fucking axioms.
               | 
               | Of course you should try to prove what you want, but not
               | at the cost of not being wrong. Doing so will prevent you
               | from achieving what you want. I'm just so tired of people
               | shooting themselves in the foot and calling it medicine.
               | We need to stop with all the bullshit because I actually
               | want to build AGI
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | It's not the silicon that's conscious of things, it's the
               | model that happens to use that silicon.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | Again, at what point does the program become conscious?
               | ```python       def main():          print("Hello
               | gaganyaan")            if __name__  == '__main__':
               | main()       ```
               | 
               | That program is not conscious.
               | 
               | So... The burden of proof is about what level of
               | complexity is sufficient.
               | 
               | Sure, no one has this answer. But also despite a few
               | billion people believing in ghosts, including some saying
               | a large portion of that saying they've _seen_ ghosts, the
               | burden of proof is to show ghosts exist, not showing
               | ghosts don 't exist. The reason being that one is
               | falsifiable while the other isn't.
               | 
               | Don't confuse "the absence of proof is not proof of
               | absence" with "the absence of evidence is not evidence of
               | absence." If you do you might start a war in the middle
               | east.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | Computer chips don't have any brain waves. Even some
               | theoretical computer chip able to run a "Perfect in Every
               | Way" simulation of a brain including even simulating the
               | physics of the actual brain waves...still has no brain
               | waves. Nothing but 1s and 0s turning on and off, and not
               | even turning on and off in anything resembling a wave
               | pattern at all.
               | 
               | This is why people who believe the "Consciousness is a
               | Computation" view never want to discuss brain waves,
               | despite the overwhelming evidence that brain waves is
               | precisely the thing out of which consciousness is
               | composed.
        
           | Fellshard wrote:
           | The grandiose claim would be that LLMs have reason to begin
           | with. It is quite normal for things to not have reasoning
           | capacity.
        
         | aurareturn wrote:
         | Brains do not reason - they are a neural network whose results
         | are defined by their experiences, memories, and sensory inputs.
         | 
         | I'm tired of reading comments from people who keep repeating
         | that LLMs don't think, don't reason, isn't intelligence because
         | it is not human. If your definition of the above is because
         | it's not human, it's quite useless as a comment. We know LLMs
         | aren't biological human brains. So what?
         | 
         | Define what reasoning is to you. Then tell us why LLMs don't
         | reason and why it matters.
        
           | cscurmudgeon wrote:
           | Not OP. But:
           | 
           | 1. Reasoning is ability to at least carry out proofs in FOL
           | (first-order logic). FOL can simulate Turing Mach
           | 
           | 2. LLMs are formally equivalent to only a subset of FOL.
           | 
           | Why is this important? To model human mathematics, you need
           | at least first-order logic.
           | 
           | These arguments have been around for decades, e.g., Penrose.
           | I am tired of people bringing up strawmen arguments ("Not
           | intelligent because not human!")
        
             | scarmig wrote:
             | Is there a proof that collections of human neurons are
             | capable of carrying out proofs in first order logic, in
             | full generality?
        
               | fmbb wrote:
               | Is anyone trying to prove that all humans can?
        
             | gaganyaan wrote:
             | Can a cat reason? It knows nothing of FOL or math, but can
             | be very smart when figuring out how to catch a mouse.
        
               | Infinity315 wrote:
               | The term 'reason' is being overloaded here.
               | 
               | The type of 'reason' a cat uses is different from the
               | 'reason' used in math
               | 
               | The information a cat uses is incomplete whereas the
               | information used in math and logic is theoretically all
               | accessible.
               | 
               | The reasoning a cat uses allows for inconsistencies with
               | its model because of its use of incomplete information
               | whereas no inconsistencies are permissible in math and
               | logic.
               | 
               | Formally speaking, math uses deductive reasoning whereas
               | the cat uses abductive reasoning.
        
             | logicchains wrote:
             | Transformers with chain of thought can use FOL:
             | https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.07923
        
           | AdieuToLogic wrote:
           | > Brains do not reason ...
           | 
           | They can, at times, and do so best when emotion is not
           | involved.
           | 
           | > I'm tired of reading comments from people who keep
           | repeating that LLMs don't think, don't reason, isn't
           | intelligence because it is not human.
           | 
           | LLM's represent a category of algorithm. Quite elegant and
           | useful in some circumstances, but an algorithm none the less.
           | A quick search produced this[0] example discussing same.
           | 
           | Another reference, which may not be authoritative based on
           | whatever most recent edit the link produces, is[1]:
           | A large language model (LLM) is a computational model
           | capable of language generation or other natural language
           | processing tasks. As language models, LLMs acquire these
           | abilities by learning statistical relationships from vast
           | amounts of text during a self-supervised and semi-supervised
           | training process.
           | 
           | > Define what reasoning is to you.
           | 
           | Reasoning was the process I went through to formulate this
           | response, doing so with intent to convey meaning as best as I
           | can, and understand as best as possible the message to which
           | I am replying.
           | 
           | > Then tell us why LLMs don't reason and why it matters.
           | 
           | LLM's do not possess the ability to perform the process
           | detailed above.
           | 
           | This is why it matters.
           | 
           | 0 - https://github.com/rasbt/LLMs-from-scratch
           | 
           | 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model
        
             | viraptor wrote:
             | > Reasoning was the process I went through to ...
             | 
             | That's not a useful definition for judging whether LLMs
             | reason or not. It's not something we can measure on an
             | objective level and introduces another concept of intent
             | which is just as vague as reasoning.
             | 
             | Specifically, an LLM can produce a similar message to what
             | you posted. Everything else about that process is not
             | defined well enough to differentiate you.
        
               | Vampiero wrote:
               | Ok, that's cool, now ask GPT to solve any programming or
               | logic problem at all and maybe you'll start to understand
               | why you can reason and why it can't.
        
               | viraptor wrote:
               | It can solve some problems and not others. But that would
               | be again a different definition of reasoning, not what
               | the parent wrote. And it would exclude animals/humans as
               | reasoning, because they can't solve all logic problems.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | Artificial intelligence is still intelligence, even if it is
           | just a shallow copy of human intelligence.
           | 
           | What irritates me when I see comments like yours is that
           | precise knowledge of weaknesses of LLMs is necessary to
           | either improve LLMs, so most of the people who claim LLMs
           | reason or are already AGI basically deny the ability to
           | improve them, since they are already perfect. Research into
           | studying the limitations of the current generation of AI is
           | unwanted and by extension so is the next generation of AI.
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | > They are statistical text generators, whose results are
         | defined by their training data set
         | 
         | Honestly I'm pissed at the research community. It's fraud. If
         | you don't know what's in the training data you simply cannot
         | differentiate reasoning from memorization.
         | 
         | Beyond that, the experiments are almost certainly in the
         | training data. Like come on! I feel like I'm going crazy here.
         | How can any coder not think LLMs are training on oct and hex!?
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41422751
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | Of course they've been trained on oct and hex.
           | 
           | The question is would the results be largely valid if this
           | was done on a human who had learnt how to perform base 8, 9,
           | 11 etc arithmetic instead ?
           | 
           | I mean, they're clearly not trying to test the ability to
           | derive base arithmetic from scratch.
        
         | anon373839 wrote:
         | > Large Language Model algorithms do not reason.
         | 
         | My belief is that what LLMs do is best described as
         | approximating the outputs of reasoning. This is different from
         | reasoning itself and also different from simply regurgitating
         | the most similar training examples.
         | 
         | I also think it's extremely challenging for people to
         | understand the significance of LLM output because language is
         | intertwined with meaning. So if you construct a valid and
         | seemingly responsive sequence of words in response to a prompt,
         | there is a strong illusion of purpose behind those words, even
         | if they were assembled in a completely naive fashion.
        
           | levitatorius wrote:
           | This! One simple argument is that language is NOT a magical
           | reasoning substance in itself, but a communication medium. It
           | is medium for passing (a) meaning. So first there is a
           | meaningful thought (worth of sharing), then an agent puts a
           | SIGNIFIER on that meaningful thought, then communicates it to
           | the recipient. Communication medium can be a sentence, it can
           | also be an eyewink or a tail wiggle. Or a whistle. The
           | "language" can be created on the spot, if two subjects get a
           | meaning of signifier by intuition (e.g. I look at the object,
           | you follow my gaze).
           | 
           | So the fallacy of the whole LLM field is the belief that
           | language has some intrinsic meaning. Or if you mix the
           | artifacts of language in some very smart way, the meaning
           | will emerge. But it doesn't work if meaning occurs before the
           | word. The text in books has no reasoning, it was authors. The
           | machine shuffling the text fragments does not have a
           | meaningful thought. The engineer which devised a shuffling
           | machine had some meaningful thought, the users of the machine
           | have same thoughts, but not the machine itself. To put it
           | another way, if there was an artificial system capable of
           | producing meaningful thoughts, it is not a presence of
           | language which produces a proof, it's communication.
           | Communication requires an agent (as in "agency") and an
           | intent. We have neither in LLM. As to the argument that we
           | ourselves are mere stochastic parrots - of course we can
           | produce word salads, or fake mimics of coherent text, it is
           | not a proof that LLM IS the way our minds work. It is just a
           | witness to the fact language is a flexible medium for the
           | meanings behind - it can just as well be used for cheating,
           | pretending, etc.
        
             | mistermann wrote:
             | > So the fallacy of...
             | 
             | The text from this point on seems to have lost contextual
             | awareness of what preceded it (which was excellent imho).
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | > One simple argument is that language is NOT a magical
             | reasoning substance in itself, but a communication medium.
             | 
             | I'm wildly impressed by how many people think language is
             | thinking. My best guess is they're conflating inner speech
             | with thinking. But if you can't figure out that the words
             | you vocalize aren't an isomorphic representation of the
             | things you try to convey, well... It's hard for me to
             | believe you've spent enough time thinking about what it
             | means to think. Miscommunication is quite common and so
             | there's sufficient feedback to learn this without being
             | explicitly taught. Then again, there are people in the
             | world that I fear...
        
         | seanmcdirmid wrote:
         | LLMs are statistical text generators whose results depend on
         | the model and the context given. They have gotten so good
         | because the context they can effectively operate over keeps
         | getting really big. If you take the model and operate on a
         | small context, you will get very uninteresting results.
         | 
         | The only reason it seems like it is reasoning is because it's
         | probably stuffing a lot of reasoning in its context, and
         | regurgitating that out in ways that are statically weighted
         | with other things in the context on what is being reasoned
         | about.
         | 
         | Frankly, even most commenters on HN don't get how LLMs operate,
         | thinking the model itself is what knows about different bases
         | like hex and oct, when really, it searched up a bunch of
         | material on different bases to include in the context before
         | the model was ever activated.
        
       | sfink wrote:
       | Confession: I haven't read the paper.
       | 
       | But any mention of LLM reasoning ability ought to address the
       | obvious confound: the LLM is trained on examples of deductive
       | reasoning, inductive reasoning, abductive reasoning, SAT-solver
       | reasoning, geniuses' musings, etc. If they replicate one of those
       | examples, then should that be called "reasoning" of any sort or
       | not? Regurgitating those examples may even involve some
       | generalization, if the original topics of an example are swapped
       | out (perhaps by a nearby topic in latent space).
       | 
       | Given that it appears they're training and testing on synthetic
       | problems, this objection probably does not apply to their actual
       | results. But given the fuzziness it creates for the definition of
       | "reasoning" of any sort, I would have expected some working
       | definition of reasoning in the paper's abstract.
       | 
       | Training on Moby Dick and thus being able to regurgitate text
       | from Moby Dick does not mean the LLM is capable of writing a new
       | Moby Dick-like book. (Thankfully; one is more than enough!)
        
         | viraptor wrote:
         | The tasks used are artificially created and don't exist in the
         | training sets. For example there's very little practical math
         | in base 11 on the internet, or English with explicitly mixed up
         | but rule based grammar.
        
       | WaitWaitWha wrote:
       | Neither. LLMs are just really, really good pattern matchers with
       | enormous set of patterns.
        
       | randcraw wrote:
       | The conclusions of the authors that LLMs can reason inductively
       | very well runs counter to what I've read elsewhere. A big part of
       | doing induction is the ability to generalize a shared pattern
       | from multiple disparate examples, recognizing the essential
       | elements that are necessary and sufficient to satisfy that
       | pattern's operators' constraints. To date, I've seen consensus
       | that LLMs can match verbs or basic relational operators across
       | examples, thereby associating the mechanisms in similar events
       | that lead to similar outcomes. But extending that facility
       | further, to employing predicate logic operators, or even the
       | simpler propositional ones appears to fall largely outside LLM
       | capabilities. To suggest then that LLMs can then perform higher-
       | order reasoning skills yet, like the modeling of contrapositives,
       | this seems quite a stretch.
        
         | golergka wrote:
         | I've just successfully chatted to ChatGPT about equivalence or
         | at least high similarities between QFT, neural networks and
         | cellular automata (referencing Wofram's work). Does that
         | pattern matching count?
        
           | Vampiero wrote:
           | No but GPT is really good at fooling laymen who are not
           | experts of a field, and it stands to reason that it just fed
           | you a bunch of bs
        
           | xwolfi wrote:
           | And you were able to verify, of course, that anything new or
           | surprising to you (as in, not a simple derivation of your own
           | prompts), was true ?
           | 
           | I noticed that if I ask it to tell me how good
           | cryptocurrencies are, it'll do it, and then if I say I
           | disagree and they're wrong, it'll simply switch and agree
           | with me as well. The thing has no care for truth, no opinion
           | of its own, no ability to insist, and just feeds you whatever
           | is statistically close to your own questions.
        
       | godelski wrote:
       | I'm really tired of these papers and experiments.
       | 
       | You cannot test reasoning when you don't know what's in the
       | training set. You have to be able to differentiate reasoning from
       | memorization, and that's not trivial.
       | 
       | Moreso, the results look to confirm that at least some
       | memorization is going on. Do we really not think GPT has
       | extensively been trained on arithmetic in base 10, 8, and 16?
       | This seems like a terrible prior. Even if not explicitly, how
       | much code has it read that performs these tasks. How many web
       | pages, tutorials, Reddit posts cover oct and hex? They also
       | haven't defined zero shot correctly. Arithmetic in these bases
       | aren't 0-shot. They're explicitly in distribution...
       | 
       | I'm unsure about base 9 and 11. It's pretty interesting to see
       | that GPT 4 is much better at these. Anyone know why? Did they
       | train on these? More bases? Doesn't seem unreasonable but I don't
       | know.
       | 
       | The experimentation is also extremely lacking. The arithmetic
       | questions only have 1000 tests where they add two digits. This is
       | certainly in the training data. I'm also unconvinced by the
       | syntax reasoning tasks since the transformer (attention)
       | architecture seems to be designed for this. I'm also unconvinced
       | these tasks aren't in training. Caesar ciphers are also certainly
       | in the training data.
       | 
       | The prompts are also odd and I guess that's why they're in the
       | appendix. For example, getting GPT to be better at math or many
       | tasks by having it write python code is not novel.
       | 
       | There's some stuff here but this really doesn't seem like a lot
       | of work for 12 people from a top university and a trillion dollar
       | company. It's odd to see that many people when the experiments
       | can be run in a fairly short time.
        
         | Infinity315 wrote:
         | I think the results still tell us something.
         | 
         | Discrepancies in mathematical ability between the various bases
         | would seem to suggest memorization as opposed to
         | generalization.
        
         | om8 wrote:
         | How to you define memorization and reasoning? There is a large
         | grey area in between them. Some say that if you can memorize
         | facts and algorithms and apply them to new data, it is a
         | memorization. Some say that it is reasoning.
         | 
         | More than that -- It's not clear that what humans do is not
         | "just" a memorization. We can always look at human experience
         | mechanisticly and say that we don't think -- we just memorized
         | thinking patterns and apply them when speaking and "thinking"
        
           | akomtu wrote:
           | A lot of reasoning is similar to interpolation within a
           | sparse set of observations. Memorization is rounding up to
           | the nearest known example. Basic guess is linear
           | interpolation. And reasoning is about discovering the
           | simplest rule that explains all the observations and using
           | this rule to extrapolate.
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | >  It's not clear that what humans do is not "just" a
           | memorization.
           | 
           | While I agree that there is a lot of gray in-between I think
           | you are misrepresenting my comment. And I'm absolutely
           | certain humans do more than memorization. Not all humans, but
           | that's not the bar. Some humans are brain damaged and some
           | are in fact babies (and many scientific do agree that
           | sentience doesn't appear at birth).
           | 
           | If you doubt me I very much encourage you to dive deeper into
           | the history of science and get doing deep deep knowledge on
           | any subject. Because you'll find this happen all the time.
           | But if you apply a loose enough definition to memorization
           | (that isn't one that would be generally agreed upon if you
           | used it's logical conclusions) then yeah, everything is
           | memorization. But everything is foo if I define everything to
           | be foo, so let's not.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | > Some say that if you can memorize facts and algorithms and
           | apply them to new data, it is a memorization. Some say that
           | it is reasoning.
           | 
           | Memorizing facts and algorithms is memorization. The rest of
           | what you are talking about is not.
           | 
           | Applying existing knowledge on new data without deriving new
           | information is generalization. An example of this is the case
           | of a semantic segmentation model classifying a car that it
           | has never seen. If the model was not trained on birds, it
           | will never classify a bird as a bird.
           | 
           | Computation of decidable problems is a large, possibly the
           | largest subset of reasoning. Most humans do not struggle with
           | solving decidable problems, the problem is that they are slow
           | and can only solve small problem sizes, but most problems
           | encountered in practice aren't one large decidable problem,
           | but a long chain of many small, dozens to hundreds of
           | heterogeneous problems that are seamlessly mixed with one
           | another. LLMs struggle with decidable problems that are out
           | of distribution, but you can give a human instructions on how
           | to do something they have never done before and they will
           | follow them with no problem.
           | 
           | > More than that -- It's not clear that what humans do is not
           | "just" a memorization.
           | 
           | I hope it is clear that I did not memorize this message I am
           | writing here and that it is the unique result of processes
           | inside my brain that were not captured in the training
           | process of an LLM.
           | 
           | >We can always look at human experience mechanisticly and say
           | that we don't think -- we just memorized thinking patterns
           | and apply them when speaking and "thinking"
           | 
           | Again you are trying to twist this in an absurd direction.
           | Let's come up with a teleoperated humanoid robot on Mars that
           | is controlled by a human on Earth. The robot acts exactly
           | like a human does. Does this mean the robot is now capable of
           | reasoning and thinking like a human, simply because it is
           | replaying a recording of the human's body and speech? This is
           | the argument you are making. You're arguing that the robot's
           | ability to replay a human's actions is equivalent to the
           | processes that brought about that human action.
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | > Let's come up with a teleoperated humanoid robot on Mars
             | 
             | One example I've always liked is from Star Trek. They got
             | holodecks and no one thinks those are sentient people even
             | though they are adaptive.
             | 
             | I don't care what Iilya said, mimicking a human does not
             | make a human. It may look like a duck, swims like a duck,
             | and quack like a duck, then it's _probably_ a duck, but you
             | haven 't ruled out an advanced animatronic. In fact, I'm
             | betting right now people could make an animatronic that
             | would convince most people it is a duck because most people
             | just don't know the nuances of duck behavior.
        
         | hanrelan wrote:
         | You'll probably find this talk [1] interesting. They control
         | all the training data for small LLMs and then perform
         | experiments (including reasoning experiments).
         | 
         | [1] Physics of LLMs:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBL7J0kgldU&t=7s
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | We can tell some of what's in the training set. One of the
         | answers for the inductive reasoning test begins "begin from the
         | rightmost digit". Look that phrase up in Google. It shows up in
         | Chegg, Course Hero, and Brainly content for elementary
         | arithmetic. If you bash on those how-to articles, available for
         | bases 2 and 10, you can probably generate the pattern for base
         | 8.
         | 
         | This looks like an LLM doing the usual LLM thing - finding
         | relevant items and combining them to fit. This doesn't require
         | the level of abstraction and induction the authors impute to
         | the LLM. Ordinary LLM behavior explains this, once you've found
         | the relevant training data.
         | 
         | People often solve problems that way too, of course.
        
           | Terr_ wrote:
           | That reminds me of an old paper about "Benny's Rules", a
           | case-study focused on a kid who seemed to be doing better
           | than average in math tests when it came to final answers...
           | but for all the wrong reasons, using an inferred set of
           | arbitrary text manipulation rules.
           | 
           | The intent was to point out that the educational approach was
           | flawed, but I think there are interesting parallels to token
           | processing in LLMs, which--unlike a human child--are built in
           | such a way that crazy partial-fit rules are likely their only
           | option.
           | 
           | > Benny believed that the fraction 5/10 = 1.5 and 400/400 =
           | 8.00 because he believed the rule was to add the numerator
           | and denominator and then divide by the number represented by
           | the highest place value.
           | 
           | https://blog.mathed.net/2011/07/rysk-erlwangers-bennys-
           | conce...
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | This is a problem with some tests. The students may detect
             | a pattern in the test answers which reflects the work of
             | those generating the answers, not the content.
             | 
             | See this article on SAT test prep.[1] The requirement that
             | only one answer can be right means that wrong answers have
             | easily identifiable properties.
             | 
             | [1] https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-critical-fundamental-
             | strate...
        
       | xiphias2 wrote:
       | Transformers are amazing pattern matchers and terrible use of
       | GPUs for reasoning, which is mostly search + execution of highly
       | non-linear programs (lambda calculus).
       | 
       | I love seeing Victor Taelin experimenting with parallizing these
       | programs (with HVM and other experiments with proof languages),
       | but it's sometimes a bit sad how much time researchers take in
       | making papers about existing things instead of trying to improve
       | the state-of-the art in something that's most probably missing
       | from the current models.
        
       | Datagenerator wrote:
       | The human mind wonders and takes time to dream autonomously.
       | Perhaps the llm.c we need for the next breakthrough addresses
       | rounds of meditation in it's training in order to provoke more
       | reason alike features to the NextGen LLM.
        
       | calf wrote:
       | Why does it have to be an either-or? Maybe LLMs are doing a bit
       | of both, in a weird hybrid way; it is both doing a statistical
       | calculation and yet the network is parameterized to do some very
       | rudimentary (and nonhuman) reasoning computations. That's
       | plausible to me, and explains why the reasoning is so hard to
       | isolate... Just like how looking at a human brain it is hard to
       | isolate the reasoning capacities.
        
       | bob1029 wrote:
       | LLMs are incredible about mapping to a space of already seen
       | things. When this space is unimaginably large, you can be fooled
       | for a long time.
       | 
       | But, they clearly struggle with generalization and rule
       | following. This failure to generalize (extrapolate, deduce,
       | compute) is why we still can't fire all of our DBAs.
       | 
       | Has anyone encountered an LLM-based text-to-SQL engine that
       | actually gets the job done? I think that's your best canary. I
       | stopped caring somewhere around "transpose these 2 letters of the
       | alphabet" not working consistently.
        
       | moktonar wrote:
       | Asking them to make ASCII art is the final test, to me.
        
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