[HN Gopher] Superhuman built an engine to find product market fi...
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       Superhuman built an engine to find product market fit (2018)
        
       Author : tekkk
       Score  : 46 points
       Date   : 2024-08-29 09:06 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (review.firstround.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (review.firstround.com)
        
       | cklemming wrote:
       | Does anyone know how Superhuman is doing these days?
       | 
       | It's been a bit quiet since their insane hype-cycle during the
       | time this article was published.
        
         | Brajeshwar wrote:
         | I hope, they are not getting ready to do a Rapportive.
        
         | ricokatayama wrote:
         | Even though I don't have real information, I feel that they
         | focused so much on the power user that they must have a high
         | level of stickiness. I don't even believe they expected to
         | scale beyond the ICP.
        
         | dreadlordbone wrote:
         | They've been shipping features somewhat regularly. One I really
         | like (but was unfortunately gated behind a $10 price bump) was
         | being able to ask AI to find an email "where's that email about
         | blah" or to have it summarize a long email chain "hey what am I
         | supposed to be doing here"
        
           | avree wrote:
           | Have you checked out Shortwave? One of the Firebase founders
           | started the company, and they have a really powerful AI
           | e-mail client.
        
             | jamest wrote:
             | +1 to Shortwave being great
        
         | carbine wrote:
         | I wonder as well -- I have witnessed extremely low churn in the
         | people I know that use it, but that's obv anecdotal.
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | I felt that Superhuman was super good at making investors and VCs
       | enthused, but that's not product market fit.
       | 
       | I guess it's VC product fit. Or VC salesman fit or something.
       | 
       | As the other comment in this thread asks "the proof is in the
       | pudding, does Superhuman have product market fit today?"
        
       | Satam wrote:
       | My experience with Superhuman has been terrible. Back in the day,
       | I tried to sign up. Couldn't. Then they started allowing sign-
       | ups, but there was a _mandatory_ onboarding /sales call to get
       | started...
       | 
       | Finally, some time ago managed to sign up in hopes it could help
       | to manage multiple inboxes with a unified inbox for all of my
       | accounts. Nope doesn't have that. Canceled my subscription
       | immediately yet I kept receiving their spam for a while.
       | 
       | Overall, a very scammy vibe.
        
         | conception wrote:
         | I had the opposite vibe. Had the same process went through the
         | call and they asked what I needed and wanted from an email
         | client and after telling them they said that it probably wasn't
         | for me yet. And I didn't sign up.
         | 
         | They emailed me when features I mentioned were added and then a
         | couple of years ago tried again. Been using it everyday since
         | then as my primary email driver at work.
         | 
         | They know they have a niche product - a paid email client; an
         | expensive one at that! So they filter so word of mouth and
         | reviews and all match expectations and make sure their product
         | is a good fit. It has been the opposite of scammy.
        
           | voiceblue wrote:
           | TFA says finding product market fit is when 40%+ of users
           | would be "very disappointed" if your product disappeared.
           | 
           | Wait! That means, if the only person using your product is
           | your mom, you have PMF.
           | 
           | Based on what you said and the TFA, this is Superhuman's PMF
           | approach (i.e., perversely satisfy this metric by filtering
           | users).
           | 
           | I don't understand where this "engine" is, but perhaps that's
           | it.
        
             | khafra wrote:
             | > TFA says finding product market fit is when 40%+ of users
             | would be "very disappointed" if your product disappeared.
             | 
             | > Wait! That means, if the only person using your product
             | is your mom, you have PMF.
             | 
             | This just seems straightforwardly correct. If you want to
             | find the size of your total addressable market, use a
             | different tool; this one is for product market fit.
        
             | ibash wrote:
             | The engine part is looking for users that are somewhat, but
             | not totally satisfied and building for them.
             | 
             | That is - you don't want to build for people that already
             | love your product (it's already great for them!) and you
             | don't want to build for people that absolutely don't like
             | your product (would need a very different product), but
             | instead build for people that you can convert from
             | "somewhat like" to "love".
        
             | azinman2 wrote:
             | They literally said you can do this at around 40 users.
        
         | chasebank wrote:
         | I had the same exact experience. I was looking for a Sparrow
         | replacement for years after google bought them and shut it
         | down. I think that's all superhuman needed to do, recreate
         | sparrow.
        
         | azinman2 wrote:
         | If you're on an Apple device, Mail.app provides a unified
         | inbox.
        
         | solidasparagus wrote:
         | I have to disagree with the scammy part. They were pretty
         | serious/intense about teaching you how to use superhuman, so
         | the daily emails for the first week could be considered spammy,
         | but personally I found them useful when trying to learn to be a
         | power user.
         | 
         | It was not worth it for me at that price point, but they
         | clearly put so much craftsmanship into the app, I feel obliged
         | to defend it from be called scammy. It remains on the short
         | list of best "new technology" experiences for me, right up
         | there with some of my first Apple devices.
        
         | carbine wrote:
         | I had the opposite experience as well. Big fan, can't live
         | without it. It really helps me manage multiple inboxes
         | effectively. As someone with a similar email challenge it
         | strikes me as less than ideal to view all inboxes in one view?
         | The inbox in question is a pretty important piece of context
         | for the email.
         | 
         | I also tend to get annoyed with forced 1:1 onboarding, but they
         | seem to have found that the tool is only sticky if they help
         | retrain your habits. It worked for me, and others I know.
        
       | codegladiator wrote:
       | obviously no real content in TFA, upvoters can elaborate why this
       | is interesting
        
         | meeech wrote:
         | because there were some interesting nuggets. Maybe nothing new
         | to you - but not everyone has read everything on the topic.
         | though this was more about their process rather than an
         | 'engine'. but you know, headlines /shrug
        
         | smrtinsert wrote:
         | Would love a suggestion on books to start conceptualizing of a
         | business in terms like these, instead of how I currently think
         | of it (tech stacks and cost)
        
           | apsurd wrote:
           | From one engineer to another, I've been getting great mileage
           | out of Product leadership podcasts.
           | 
           | https://www.reforge.com/podcast/unsolicited-feedback
           | 
           | Think of it like you're making a career change and immersing
           | yourself in a new circle. Not strictly studying, rather just
           | hanging out and taking it all in.
           | 
           | It helps my brain more fully switch into the "product leader
           | identity". It's been very helpful and fun.
        
       | bko wrote:
       | The article discusses a way to test product market fit prior to
       | launching. After launch its obvious. But then the way it tests
       | product market fit is asking its users if they would be
       | disappointed if the product didn't exist.
       | 
       | But if you have users you can simply test product market fit to
       | see engagement. If people are engaged, that's a good sign. If you
       | have people that are signed up and aren't engaged, that's a bad
       | sign.
       | 
       | The author uses Slack as an example of a company that has product
       | market fit and over 50% of users surveyed would say they'd be
       | "very disappointed" without Slack (the magic number to beat is
       | 40%). I wonder how that poll would fare for Microsoft Teams, that
       | has 320 million MAU compared to around 40 million for Slack
       | (roughly, few years old but order of magnitude is ~10x). Does
       | Slack have more of a product market fit than Teams because very
       | few people would be disappointed if Teams stopped existing? Or is
       | usage a better metric?
        
         | ensemblehq wrote:
         | Enterprise software is a different beast as the buying cycle
         | and structure is a lot different. Selling into the enterprise
         | requires a different go-to-market strategy. It's why you never
         | see things like 'Superhuman' reach mainstream tech.
        
         | digging wrote:
         | > Does Slack have more of a product market fit than Teams
         | because very few people would be disappointed if Teams stopped
         | existing? Or is usage a better metric?
         | 
         | I'm coming from a lay perspective but they just seem like
         | totally different markets. I don't know a single person who has
         | ever used Teams voluntarily. I don't know a single person who
         | likes Teams. But I know tons of people who use it every day,
         | because it was bundled and cheap or convenient for their
         | employer to install it on their machine. Meanwhile I don't
         | currently have any Slack communities that drive me to use it,
         | but if given a choice between Slack and Teams I'll always pick
         | the former.
         | 
         | (Actually Discord is where most of my communities are now, and
         | I'm not happy about that either; it's great for social gaming
         | and pretty bad for text chat - although for different reasons
         | than Teams. I am heavily engaged in Discord, and _I would be
         | happier if it ceased to exist_ , because it would force
         | alternative modes to be chosen)
        
           | Suppafly wrote:
           | >I am heavily engaged in Discord, and I would be happier if
           | it ceased to exist, because it would force alternative modes
           | to be chosen
           | 
           | I'm almost on this bandwagon, I was super annoyed when all my
           | groups from from google chats and such to discord. Now that I
           | have to keep it around for at least one of those groups, I
           | don't really mind, but having to initially install it and get
           | used to it was annoying.
        
             | digging wrote:
             | It's fine for friend (small, private) communities. My
             | problem is that Discord is virtually _never_ a good option
             | for public communities, but it 's almost always the go-to
             | choice (because "everyone already has it").
        
       | dwallin wrote:
       | Is it just me, or is this bad statistics?
       | 
       | With a small sample size and large numbers of personas /
       | categories you would expect to see a positive bump, even if there
       | was no statistical relationship between the persona and the
       | preference. Since you are only eliminating categories that don't
       | happen to be represented in the subset you are testing, you can
       | only ever actually go up.
       | 
       | For demonstration I rolled 20 dice randomly for 6 personas and 3
       | categories of preference:
       | 
       | 1, 5, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 4, 2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 3, 2, 1, 3
       | 
       | A, A, A, A, B, C, B, A, C, A, C, A, B, C, A, A, B, A, B, B
       | 
       | A = 10, B = 6, C = 4; Which gives me 20% for C
       | 
       | I restrict myself to just the numbers that voted for C (2, 4, 1,
       | 6) removing all 3 and 5s
       | 
       | I now am left with:
       | 
       | 1, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 4, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1
       | 
       | A, A, A, B, C, B, A, C, A, C, A, C, A, A, B
       | 
       | This now gives me A = 8, B = 3, C = 4
       | 
       | And now I get 27%, a nice 35% boost! Even better than
       | Superhuman's 10% boost. But this is all an illusion, there was
       | absolutely no dependency between the persona and preference here,
       | which you would only see with a large enough sample size.
        
       | nextworddev wrote:
       | Never used Superhuman - has to be one of the most hyped startups
       | with the least amount of IRL users that I know of
        
       | flappyeagle wrote:
       | You should ignore this article. They ultimately did not get PMF
        
         | mguerville wrote:
         | They found PMF in a niche (productivity-obsessed email-
         | superusers), which is decent market in size, but raised money
         | and got press coverage like a mainstream so in the end it feels
         | like they kinda failed.
         | 
         | It reminds me of Peloton (though they did go mainstream-ish),
         | or the Snoo (smart baby bassinet)... just because a ton of
         | people email/exercise/have babies doesn't mean the bulk of them
         | are in the market for the hyper-optimized and high-price
         | solution.
        
       | lowkey wrote:
       | Notably, Rahul copied the well known Sean Ellis metric then
       | failed to credit the originator - and got famous. Kind of sketchy
       | in my opinion.
        
       | sarora27 wrote:
       | You gotta love good survivorship bias stories like this.
       | Especially those written by VC armchair quarterbacks. It's always
       | the same examples reiterated over and over again.
        
         | avree wrote:
         | It's way too early to call Superhuman a 'survivor'. But, most
         | mail app companies do get acquihired before their products are
         | killed.
        
       | ed wrote:
       | Having followed this exact playbook to validate several products
       | I can confidently say this will give you false positives and the
       | only reliable way to determine when you have PMF is: accidentally
       | get PMF on something so that you know what it feels like (it's
       | unmistakeable).
       | 
       | Peter Reinhardt from Segment has a must-watch talk for anyone
       | interested in this topic
       | https://youtu.be/_6pl5GG8RQ4?si=pogHC45L58U7K6mW
        
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       (page generated 2024-08-29 23:02 UTC)