[HN Gopher] Why has Japan been hit with rice shortages despite n...
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       Why has Japan been hit with rice shortages despite normal crops?
        
       Author : rntn
       Score  : 123 points
       Date   : 2024-08-27 11:19 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (mainichi.jp)
 (TXT) w3m dump (mainichi.jp)
        
       | Loughla wrote:
       | So he says it's not because of tourism, but because of subsidies.
       | 
       | But then in the next section says it's because demand outstrips
       | supply because of things like tourism.
       | 
       | What?
       | 
       | This is a piece of political writing targeted at the Japanese
       | land use and subsidy policy. Nothing more.
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | They have explained clearly enough.
         | 
         | Their system of subsidies limits the production of rice, so
         | they do not have any rice surplus.
         | 
         | Because of that, even a very small increase in rice demand,
         | like from having more tourists than expected in 2024 (I have
         | also visited Japan this year, benefiting from the small prices
         | after yen conversion) has been enough so that the demand could
         | not be satisfied, resulting in increased prices.
         | 
         | After tasting the Japanese rice in Japan, I agree with the
         | article that their rice is by far the best and that the
         | government policy of limiting the rice production is wrong and
         | it would be much better for them to produce a rice surplus and
         | attempt to export it.
         | 
         | As they are aware, they could not compete directly with the
         | cheaper rice from Thailand or other major exporters, but they
         | could compete successfully in the "more expensive but better"
         | rice category.
        
       | mkesper wrote:
       | Q: It's said that the decline in rice consumption is serious, but
       | if the amount produced increased and the price went down, people
       | would eat more, wouldn't they?
       | 
       | A: Exactly. Rice acreage reduction is an absolutely terrible
       | policy. The government spends over 300 billion yen (about $2.06
       | billion) in subsidies annually to decrease the amount of rice
       | produced, thus going out of its way to raise the price and
       | increasing the burden on consumers.
        
         | begueradj wrote:
         | To be fair, that's a common practice even when it comes to non
         | edible products (for example, coming from a petrol producing
         | country, I grew up hearing every now and then about OPEC having
         | decided to reduce petrol production to raise prices)
        
           | inanutshellus wrote:
           | Yes but per the article, this policy has been active for 60
           | years. They're not temporarily buoying after a seasonal
           | surplus, they're just paying farmers not to farm ..... for
           | generations.
        
             | downrightmike wrote:
             | The USA has been doing that since the 1970's as land
             | preservation.
        
               | jacobr1 wrote:
               | Which is dumb. Land should just be purchased for
               | conservation (or other arrangements like easements with
               | transfer on sale) to the government or private land
               | conservatory groups. Endless subsidy is corrupt.
        
               | ambyra wrote:
               | Japan is an island, which can be blockaded, so they've
               | always tried to help their farmers. Usually they pay the
               | farmers to grow less, not pay them to grow nothing. Also
               | this policy was phased out in 2018; now they're just
               | subsidizing farmers and encouraging crop diversity. I
               | think they're doing a good job. Being a farmer is always
               | hard. In Japan at least they're making it easier.
               | Encouraging crop diversity and organic farming is nice
               | (especially compared to the us corn/soy situation).
        
               | downrightmike wrote:
               | Depleting the land in that manner is what caused the Dust
               | Bowl. May sound dumb, but it is certainly not.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | It also props up the price of various goods to keep them
               | profitable to produce so farms don't go under by limiting
               | the amount produced to avoid big gluts of produce.
        
               | Modified3019 wrote:
               | That's a great point. Reminds me of how currently in the
               | Willamette valley of Oregon, grass seed prices are
               | terrible because there's oversupply such that growers
               | can't even sell last years crop at a profit, resulting in
               | more oversupply.
               | 
               | Some ground isn't suitable for much else than annual
               | ryegrass, which does well on the clay mud in the hills
               | and seasonal bogs. There's not much to switch to that can
               | even handle the conditions.
               | 
               | Other grass crops like different types of fescue are a
               | multi year investments since the first year you don't get
               | much from the field and it takes time to clean up the
               | weed seeds. So flipping to another crop puts you in a big
               | hole.
               | 
               | Finally there's the generally six figure equipment to
               | harvest any particular crop. A given harvester can only
               | deal with a very limited selection of crops, and even
               | then is often going to require configuration and tuning
               | when switching to a compatible crop.
               | 
               | I think the grape and hop guys might also be seeing
               | something similar, but I'm not entirely sure.
               | 
               | I can imagine that growers with fields configured for
               | growing rice face similar issues. If price tanks, they
               | don't have the flexibility to "just" pivot to something
               | else as needed.
        
               | downrightmike wrote:
               | That's why we have subsidies.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | One of many. Another is to just directly bribe farmers
               | for political support in areas of the country given extra
               | power by the structure of the US government where not
               | every vote gets equal weight.
        
           | logicchains wrote:
           | The difference is that OPEC countries colluding to raise
           | prices hurt other countries, not their own people (they
           | generally subsidise petrol for their own citizens), whereas
           | Japan's policy of artificially raising the price of Japanese
           | rice hurts Japanese consumers, and Japanese consumers vastly
           | outnumber Japanese farmers.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | > Japanese consumers vastly outnumber Japanese farmers
             | 
             | Japan is also a parliamentary system, and a significant
             | portion of Single Member Seats in the House of
             | Representatives are small towns or rural [0]
             | 
             | Pissed off farmers caused the LDP to lose power in the 2009
             | election [1], which is historic in a country that is a de
             | facto one-party state.
             | 
             | The LDP in 2024 is looking similarly weak like the LDP in
             | 2009 so they cannot afford to anger the farming bloc.
             | 
             | [0] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_of_
             | the_Hou...
             | 
             | [1] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Japanese_general
             | _electi...
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | OPEC do that to raise _export_ prices. Quite often they have
           | subsidized or really lightly taxed petrol for domestic use.
        
         | EasyMark wrote:
         | Are people moving to other crops that aren't as water intensive
         | with all the global warming and erratic weather patterns that
         | are developing around the world? Looks like from the article
         | there isn't a significant decrease in rice production and
         | "tourism" could only affect 0.5% so could it be artificial
         | inflation like in the USA from limited competition that's been
         | going on the past few years?
        
           | mytailorisrich wrote:
           | Actually, global warming is making Japan get more rain.
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | Global warming, climate _change_ is shifting weather
           | patterns. While west coasts (California, the UK, Spain) are
           | generally getting less rain, East coasts (Japan,
           | Newfoundland, Florida) are generally getting hit with more
           | rain and more storms.
        
             | mytailorisrich wrote:
             | The UK is actually getting more and more rain because
             | evaporation over the Atlantic increases with warming (I
             | suppose same phenomenon as for Japan)... at least as long
             | as the Gulf Stream keeps flowing.
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | There is no water shortage on a small island like Japan, it
           | gets a LOT of rain, and really, when grown in the mountain
           | areas (cmmon in Japan) the rice terraces probably slow the
           | water flow down rather than speed it up (going via the river
           | straight into the sea) somewhat watering the rice crops and
           | all other life nearby.
           | 
           | Rice doesn't actually need a lot of water to grow, they use
           | the water as a type of weed control, rice is unique in that
           | it can grow practically submersed in water. Most other
           | species cannot.
           | 
           | Bali has been experimenting growing rice without such large
           | amounts of water, it went well. Google it!
        
       | Dalewyn wrote:
       | Why? Politics. Fin.
       | 
       | The Japanese government has long managed the production of rice
       | to keep market prices high for the farmers' sake and given
       | subsidies to farmers to not fully utilize their production
       | potential.
       | 
       | Covid hit and tanked the demand moreso than usual, so government
       | policies shifted to further production (read: supply) reductions.
       | Less supply in response to reduced demand equals maintained
       | market prices.
       | 
       | Politics has not caught up in the post-covid era where demand
       | from both domestic and international (including tourism) has
       | recovered and surged. The supply is still mid-covid limited.
       | 
       | Why? Politics. Fin.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | Even great farmers can go out of business with just one really
         | bad year.
         | 
         | That's not really in your interest, either.
         | 
         | The free market people will say - oh, someone else will just
         | come in and take over the farm.
         | 
         | Easier said than done.
         | 
         | I'm not saying Japan has the best system, but it's probably
         | nowhere near as bad as you think.
        
           | Dalewyn wrote:
           | >I'm not saying Japan has the best system, but it's probably
           | nowhere near as bad as you think.
           | 
           | I merely answered the _Why?_ in the clickbaity article title.
           | 
           | As far as my thoughts on the policy, I think it's quite more
           | reasonable than the far more popular western policy of
           | letting the free market kill itself in a race to the bottom
           | only to then be bought out by China.
           | 
           | The current rice shortage isn't a problem to do with the
           | policy, it's how it's being handled.
        
             | Ekaros wrote:
             | And all western countries all doing same type of or similar
             | enough subsidy. EU is built on it. Free market on food is
             | only something pushed on lesser nations...
        
               | willcipriano wrote:
               | With the current high food prices, US taxpayers will be
               | pleased to know that they will spend about 4 billion this
               | year on ensuring the farmers don't grow too much food
               | (this total is up from last year due to the inflation
               | reduction act)
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | So be it. Votes talk, and neither party has margins to
               | risk.
        
               | willcipriano wrote:
               | They don't care about votes outside of the swing states.
               | 
               | They care about the people who have been getting those
               | billions for decades spending a small portion of it
               | against them. Also they are concerned for their family
               | members who happen to be upstanding people who landed in
               | great jobs at charities owned by the people who get the
               | billions to not feed people.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | _> With the current high food prices_
               | 
               | High prices? 2022 is but a distant memory now. As a
               | farmer, I haven't seen food prices this low, nominally,
               | since the bottom of the mid-2010s crash, and if you
               | account for inflation it doesn't look like food has
               | _ever_ been as cheap as it is right now!
               | 
               | Perhaps you mean the current high price of convenience?
               | It does seem the grocery stores keep pushing prices
               | higher even as the price of food keeps going down, down,
               | down.
        
               | ForOldHack wrote:
               | Partially true. Rising grocery prices and falling food
               | commodity food prices. Where is all that money going?
               | Look no further than corporate land ownership.
        
           | WillAdams wrote:
           | As my grandfather (who along w/ his father-in-law, and my
           | great-great-grandfather) was a farmer:
           | 
           | >Never complain about how farming is managed and paid for
           | when your belly is full.
        
         | inanutshellus wrote:
         | With the policy being active, non-stop, for 60 years (as
         | opposed to temporary incentives to buoy farmers during a bad
         | year) it's clearly politicking. Especially given the sleight-
         | of-hand from the Abe administration (as mentioned in the
         | article) where they claimed to kill the subsidy but actually
         | only killed its limitations. In short - not sure why you've
         | been downvoted.
        
       | wodenokoto wrote:
       | > The crop situation index for rice grown in 2023, indicating the
       | amount of the rice harvest, was 101
       | 
       | Does that mean that each acre is producing about 100% of the
       | average production, or that the total production is about 100% of
       | the average production?
       | 
       | The article makes it sound like the change in production is
       | neglectable and that the change in demand is tiny, implying that
       | a high estimate would be about 0.5% increase in demand.
        
         | freeone3000 wrote:
         | Crop situation index is percentage yield of the area
         | cultivated. 2023 had 101% of the expected yield per area, so
         | it's not a bad harvest (2022 had a 96 due to the typhoon, for
         | instance). Which means the high price of rice results from some
         | combination of increased consumption or reduced cultivation
         | area.
        
       | pm90 wrote:
       | Im somewhat baffled by this policy... just produce as much rice
       | as you can, buy surplus from farmers and give it out cheap/free
       | as food assistance to developing countries. Surely a small cost
       | to the Government to get a steady, controlled production numbers.
        
         | rglullis wrote:
         | And then get accused of dumping by the WTO?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _then get accused of dumping by the WTO?_
           | 
           | Plenty of countries have subsidised or even free food
           | programmes. (EDIT: Nvm, missed "to developing countries.")
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | Dumping is not related to subsidized or free food programs.
             | Dumping is about offloading a ton of cheap product in
             | another country.
        
         | jncfhnb wrote:
         | Providing free food to poor countries runs the food producers
         | out of business in those countries and counter intuitively
         | harms their food security
        
           | erremerre wrote:
           | Then give it to your enemies, send it to North Korea!
        
             | rasz wrote:
             | More money for Nuke development aimed at Japan?
        
           | inanutshellus wrote:
           | then... you could dump it in the ocean and feed fish to help
           | the fishing industry (which arguably would be a wise thing
           | anyway given Japan's love of seafood). IIRC the USA did
           | (does?) that with corn.
        
             | HumblyTossed wrote:
             | Isn't that also how we ended up having corn in so much food
             | we produce.
        
               | ambicapter wrote:
               | Dumping it into the ocean? Probably not.
        
             | BlueTemplar wrote:
             | That would be particularly stupid : agriculture is not
             | something sustainable (at scales of thousands of years),
             | and especially not agriculture using fertilizer based on
             | fossil fuels (only sustainable at scales of hundreds of
             | years ?), which I presume Japanese farmers use ?
             | 
             | And you suggest that they deplete this non-renewable
             | resource faster ?
        
               | inanutshellus wrote:
               | The intent was to strategically react to crises, as
               | opposed to the existing perpetual (60 years and counting)
               | bribe program.
               | 
               | Strategically/rarely buying and dumping excessively cheap
               | grain would bolster farmers' livelihoods, prevent price
               | collapse, and... some fish get fed one time.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | Then the farmers are incentivized to overproduce every
               | year because the government will buy the crops
        
               | inanutshellus wrote:
               | Crisis inherently implies rarity. If every day for sixty
               | years is a crisis, it's time to reevaluate bigger life
               | choices. Feels like we're just having fun poking invented
               | holes rather than arguing in good faith here.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | You react to crises by storing grain. Not by dumping it
               | or by underproducing.
        
               | inanutshellus wrote:
               | No the problem is overproduction. Storing grain would
               | give you even more grain, further increasing the crisis
               | (which is price, not availability).
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | You solve temporary overproduction with storage.
               | 
               | You solve permanent overproduction with mobbing people
               | together and demanding that the government stops
               | mandating it. Because it only exists when the government
               | mandates it.
               | 
               | If you want to soften the blow into people that have to
               | learn how to grow some completely different crop. You go
               | and do that, you don't create an entire class entitled to
               | permanent societal support for not working.
        
           | nothackerfox wrote:
           | This is true. In the spirit of charity, what if we kill more
           | businesses? Seems like doing good in the world can also have
           | negative impacts we may not be aware of.
        
             | BurningFrog wrote:
             | Selling it on the open world market should benefit the
             | world the most.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | It still boils down to dumping. This is a hard problem.
               | 
               | You don't want the global markets determining that you
               | have a competitive disadvantage relative to peers and
               | thus want to import all of your food and abandon your
               | domestic production.
               | 
               | You also don't want farmers hitting the prisoners dilemma
               | issue of producing as much crop as possible because then
               | farms die from competition. And again letting them die is
               | not good for a critical industry like food.
               | 
               | Paying farmers to underutilize their land is a less
               | insane idea than it sounds.
        
           | wolpoli wrote:
           | Then they could give free food to countries that are
           | experiencing short-term famine through natural or man-made
           | disasters. In such a situation, consumers are helped and
           | producers aren't really able to increase production in
           | response to the high price - hence a famine.
        
         | ReptileMan wrote:
         | I would say that aid to developing countries is the one thing
         | that has failed over and over again to improve them. Even China
         | raw exploitation of those countries probably brings more
         | development to a country than aid.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | > buy surplus from farmers
         | 
         | With what money?
         | 
         | Japan already has some of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the
         | world, the Yen is increasingly unstable, and much of the budget
         | is spent on the Japanese Welfare system that cannot be messed
         | with or you are committing political suicide along with rising
         | defense expenditures that are now required due to North Korea's
         | military buildup.
         | 
         | The existing status quo is good enough to keep farmers happy
         | (and not switching their vote) while leaving money on the table
         | to be used for social spending, defense, and debt payments.
        
           | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
           | Japan's government debt is owed to... Japan, mostly the Bank
           | of Japan (ie, the government). Ironically the yen is weak
           | because Japanese interest rates are low, _because Japanese
           | prices have barely nudged since 1990_ , averaging
           | approximately no inflation until roughly last year. If
           | anything, Japan isn't printing nearly enough yen. They can
           | afford to spend more and tax less.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | > If anything, Japan isn't printing nearly enough money
             | 
             | Japan has very low wages compared to other OECD countries
             | (the average wage in Japan is only around $25,000), so
             | inflation - especially the kind you are proposing - is
             | catastrophic, especially given how a significant proportion
             | of the population is on a fixed income due to retirement or
             | social subsidizes due to un- or underemployment.
             | 
             | This is why the Japanese government tries to limit
             | inflation to 2%.
             | 
             | > because Japanese prices have barely nudged since 1990
             | 
             | Because of significant government intervention.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | > Because of significant government intervention.
               | 
               | Interest rates have been negative for nearly 2 decades.
               | What significant government intervention has there been
               | to keep inflation low?
               | 
               | Personally I don't know why they didn't just raise the
               | minimum wage.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > Interest rates have been negative for nearly 2 decades
               | 
               | Nope.
               | 
               | Only since 2015 when the Japanese economy entered a
               | recession and CPI rose to 4%.
               | 
               | > What significant government intervention has there been
               | to keep inflation low
               | 
               | Negative inflation rates, impacting the ability to borrow
               | further.
               | 
               | The expansive welfare system that allows 2% of the
               | poorest Japanese to get direct benefits transfers (it's a
               | great program, but very expensive, so other priorities
               | are lower).
               | 
               | Price controls on utilities and some crops like Wheat.
               | 
               | > I don't know why they didn't just raise the minimum
               | wage
               | 
               | Because Japan has a very extensive set of FTAs, and
               | before 2015 a very high youth unemployment rate (8-12%).
               | 
               | If Japan raised the minimum wage, employers would leave
               | for South Korea, Taiwan, China, ASEAN, and India.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | > Nope.
               | 
               | https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/business/japan-boj-
               | negative-i...
               | 
               | First rate hike in 17 years this year.
               | 
               | > Negative inflation rates, impacting the ability to
               | borrow further.
               | 
               | Government doesn't set the inflation rate.
               | 
               | > The expansive welfare system that allows 2% of the
               | poorest Japanese to get direct benefits transfers (it's a
               | great program, but very expensive, so other priorities
               | are lower). Price controls on utilities and some crops
               | like Wheat.
               | 
               | Those would lead to higher inflation, not lower.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > First rate hike in 17 years this year
               | 
               | That does NOT mean interest rates were negative.
               | 
               | Negative interest rates were only applied in 2015 [0]
               | 
               | > Government doesn't set the inflation rate.
               | 
               | Typo. I meant interest rates.
               | 
               | [0] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRSTCI01JPM156N
        
               | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
               | > Japan has very low wages... so inflation is
               | catastrophic
               | 
               | Wages increase with government spending (and inflation),
               | unless productivity falls a lot or there's a huge wealth
               | transfer from labor to capital. When the government
               | prints a bunch of money and uses it to purchase a bunch
               | of rice from Japanese farmers, that money ends up as
               | higher wages for farmers and their supply chain, and this
               | in turn circulates throughout the economy, as one
               | farmer's spending is another retail worker's wages.
               | 
               | This doesn't help retirees of course, who aren't earning
               | any more, but the government can choose to hand them more
               | money too if necessary; inflation-indexed pensions are a
               | policy choice. (Although I would say that they should be
               | handing more money to young children, in the custody of
               | their parents).
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | I don't feel like arguing with a tech bro so just read
               | the Bank of Japan's monetary policy doc [0]
               | 
               | Price stability is the PRIMARY and ONLY goal due to
               | political considerations.
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/index.htm
        
           | CharlieDigital wrote:
           | With what money?
           | 
           | Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it sounds like they are
           | already paying them to under-produce. So why not just pay
           | them to produce the excess and then...do something with it?
           | Sell it to other countries, donate it as humanitarian aid to
           | areas like Gaza, Ukraine, etc.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | > but it sounds like they are already paying them to under-
             | produce
             | 
             | Not as much as if they were subsidizing the cost directly.
             | 
             | In this case the loss is on the consumer's end.
        
           | ForOldHack wrote:
           | "People also ask Why is Japanese yen so weak today? Why is
           | the yen losing value? There are several factors, but it is
           | mainly a "product of divergent monetary policy between the
           | Bank of Japan and its developed-market peers -- particularly
           | the Federal Reserve," said Barron's."
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Ironically, the issue is the Yen's appreciation.
             | 
             | The Japanese Budget for FY24 and FY25 was made before the
             | sudden appreciation of the Yen suddenly made a number of
             | calculations moot.
        
         | InDubioProRubio wrote:
         | Then do a hasty non-thought through turn towards green fuels
         | and watch as the poor developing countries whose poor you fed
         | for years, tear there governments a new one, shredding your
         | regional diplomacy policy.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
         | 
         | Welcome to policy dependency hell.. its getting heated.. but
         | gradually..
        
         | downrightmike wrote:
         | Farm land conservation in the face of climate change is a good
         | thing the USA has been doing it for generations. Depleting the
         | land just because you can is a bad idea.
        
           | downrightmike wrote:
           | Depleting the land in that manner is what caused the Dust
           | Bowl
        
       | miragecraft wrote:
       | A lot of countries have a national food reserve that is used to
       | calm prices when demand fluctuates, it allows time to adjust
       | production while you're putting food in or out of the reserve to
       | control prices.
       | 
       | Does Japan not have that?
        
         | phonon wrote:
         | https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/4076639-japans-r...
         | 
         | "Japan's rice stockpile has dropped to its lowest level in this
         | century due to a prolonged heatwave in 2023 and rising domestic
         | demand, causing concerns among residents about high prices."
        
           | lvspiff wrote:
           | Probably for the same reason strategically placed tea
           | reserves all around china just incase someone wants to steal
           | it "all"...the idea of Japan having a massive underground
           | cave complex for rice is amusing to me for some reason. I
           | know its not how it works but the next big earthquake could
           | open up a lava flow and produce a giant rice krispy field and
           | then we'd just have to lure the stay-puff marshmallow man
           | into that field...
        
             | mey wrote:
             | Is there a list of food reserves that each country
             | maintains? I feel like that would be an interesting/funny
             | cultural insight. Like the US Cheese Stockpile or the
             | Canada Maple Syrup Reserve.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | Gotta include the at-home stocks which is going to be
               | harder/more variable to measure.
               | 
               | Though if you have diversity in your crop production,
               | _usually_ when one thing does badly, something else does
               | better, especially if your country is big.
               | 
               | When COVID first hit, I did an estimate of how much food
               | I had on hand (without even intentionally trying to
               | stockpile) and I figure I could live 6-8 months without
               | leaving.
        
           | bell-cot wrote:
           | So Japan has a stockpile...but is not competent to manage it.
           | I'd guess that's the usual story of too-numerous and long-
           | calcified bureaucrats, overseen by oblivious and uncaring
           | politicians.
           | 
           | (From a few quick searches, it looks like rice will last 5+
           | years with proper storage.)
        
           | ForOldHack wrote:
           | " Why has Japan been hit with rice shortages, soaring prices
           | despite normal crops? (Answer: acreage reduction!)"
           | 
           | They claim to have enough.
        
       | empath75 wrote:
       | I wonder how much of this is actually just inflation. The first
       | sign of inflation is shortages, usually, and then people raise
       | prices to keep the goods on the shelf.
        
       | rawgabbit wrote:
       | TLDR. The expert Kazuhito Yamashita argues:
       | Japan is only producing about half of the rice it could
       | potentially produce.         This is due to government policy
       | that pays farmers not to grow to prevent falling prices.
       | Argues in the current geopolitical climate with the potential of
       | a food blockade, this policy should be abandoned.         If
       | abandoned, Japan will become one of the largest rice exporters
       | which he argues is better for Japanese food security.
        
         | philipov wrote:
         | It sounds like an XY problem. They don't want the price to fall
         | because then farming wouldn't be profitable, but they're paying
         | farmers to not profit off sales anyway. Instead of subsidizing
         | half the farmers to do nothing, they should subsidize all the
         | farmers, half as much, and allow the price to drop by half.
        
           | k8wk1 wrote:
           | The amount of annual subsidies is around $2 billion. It's a
           | tiny number for a country as large as Japan. Their GDB is $4
           | trillion per year.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | Anything is small if you choose a big enough denominator
             | (eg. GDP). What's the total value rice production in japan?
             | This source[1] values all agricultural output at $29B,
             | which means rice subsidy alone is 6.9% of agricultural
             | production.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Agricultural_output_
             | Japan...
        
             | mistrial9 wrote:
             | it is not a simple number.. people who operate business on
             | the commodity scale, often have very low profits and
             | therefore, have lower spending power economically.. in
             | other words, lots of farmers tend to live close to a kind
             | of poverty. Meanwhile, in the center of some kind of fast
             | and loose economics, like entertainment for example.. lots
             | of economic spending power is traded very quickly.. plenty
             | of people in the entertainment industries do not live close
             | to poverty at all..
             | 
             | Large economic systems in real life have economic niches.
             | Government policy levers change the basic flow patterns..
             | it is often a matter of life and death
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | > The amount of annual subsidies is around $2 billion. It's
             | a tiny number for a country as large as Japan. Their GDB is
             | $4 trillion per year.
             | 
             | Their Debt-to-GDP ratio is 263% (so around $9 trillion in
             | debt), and the government's budget is only $1.2 trillion
             | per year, so it becomes very difficult to maneuver,
             | especially due to the increased Yen volatility.
             | 
             | The current status quo keeps farmers happy and voting for
             | the LDP, while continuing to fund Japan's very generous and
             | very expensive welfare system that everyone loves.
             | 
             | Mainichi is also the opposition newspaper and election
             | season is approaching in Japan due to Kishida's scandals
             | leading to his resignation.
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | Sounds like dairy in Canada. We basically have a taxi medallion
         | system for milk.
         | 
         | Result: high prices (basically a regressive tax), personal
         | import limits that haven't increased in 3+ decades, artificial
         | barriers to entry (good luck becoming a dairy farmer unless you
         | inherited a farm or take out a massive loan before even
         | starting) & low per capita production for a country that could
         | be a dairy exporting juggernaut.
         | 
         | New Zealand is currently the biggest dairy exporter. Canada,
         | despite being a massive agri-exporter for other products, not
         | even in the top 15.
        
           | codersfocus wrote:
           | This reminds me of restaurants a bit.
           | 
           | You can price your menu high, such that it's mostly empty but
           | sustainable.
           | 
           | The other option is pricing things low, and having the tables
           | always be full. But of course, the employees need to work
           | more.
        
         | ForOldHack wrote:
         | It is not. It is producing a two tier market. "As of January
         | 2024, India was the world's largest rice exporter, shipping
         | 16.5 million metric tons of rice. India's rice is known for its
         | quality and aroma, and is shipped to many countries, including
         | varieties like Basmati and non-Basmati. India's rice exports
         | support millions of farmers and help the country's economy. "
         | And India and Tialand are benefitting.
        
       | binary132 wrote:
       | I'm sure they would never do that here. Our price increases are
       | completely organic, natural, and market-driven, as always. Pay no
       | attention to the man behind the curtain.
        
       | garibaldy wrote:
       | yet another success of planned economy
        
         | InDubioProRubio wrote:
         | yes, why cant we just all have the great depression 100 time..
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
        
           | dade_ wrote:
           | There is strong evidence that attempts to fix the depression
           | actually made it worse and prolonged it. One take of many:
           | https://www.econlib.org/policy-failure-during-the-great-
           | depr...
        
           | gradientsrneat wrote:
           | Article claims USA/Europe no longer have crop reduction
           | policies in place because "they know that producing more and
           | exporting it brings greater benefits than reducing the amount
           | produced." Japan's approach does indeed seem more
           | controlling. Whether that's good or bad, I don't know.
           | 
           | Edit: Article also says "western" countries subsidize farmers
           | to protect them from price drops of oversupply.
        
       | DoneWithAllThat wrote:
       | They're claiming...... tourism is the reason for increased
       | demand? Seriously?
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | sounds like an emotional appeal to a political situation, not
         | at all factual. Politics in practice are full of this
         | (challenge - rearrange those four letters)
        
       | sandworm101 wrote:
       | Many are missing the cultural aspect. This isn't all about the
       | government protecting the price. There is a second order issue.
       | If the price dropped, Japanese farmers would react by reducing
       | costs, by bringing in new tech and consolidating small farms into
       | larger agri-businesses. Japan wants avoid the cultural changes
       | that would bring to rural areas, areas that many believe to be
       | the heart of Japanese culture.
        
       | DataDaemon wrote:
       | Soon in Europe, only the protests stopped for a moment.
        
       | abeppu wrote:
       | > A: People across the world say, "It's the best-tasting rice in
       | the world, so why isn't more of it being exported?" Japanese
       | agricultural officials often comment, "We can't compete with
       | cheap rice produced in Thailand and elsewhere," but that's not
       | the case. Just like you have luxury and standard cars, there are
       | different kinds of rice. Luxury cars won't lose out to ordinary
       | ones even if the price is higher.
       | 
       | Totally not the point of this, but is Japanese rice really "the
       | best-tasting"? Don't get me wrong, I enjoy California-produced
       | Japanese-style short-grained varieties (I'm not sure whether I've
       | bought actual Japanese-grown rice) -- in some applications. But
       | sometimes you want a jasmine or a basmati or something else, and
       | it seems like that's a matter of preference and what you're used
       | to and what other food you're eating it with, more than "better"
       | or "luxury".
        
         | solarmist wrote:
         | "It's the best-tasting rice in the world" is typical Japanese
         | hyperbole in the same way they brag about having four seasons.
         | 
         | I'm sure it's excellent, but in the end, it's just rice. A
         | blind taste test would be random noise. I sure can't remember
         | there being a material different in the rice I ate in Japan vs
         | good Japanese food in Cali.
         | 
         | Hell, even if you included jasmine or basmati, I'll bet most
         | western people wouldn't even be able to tell those apart from
         | Japanese short-grained rice.
         | 
         | Edit: western people
        
           | abeppu wrote:
           | I mean, different kinds of rice do have clearly different
           | textures, and basmati and jasmine are both aromatic in a way
           | that koshikihari is not. I think people should be able to
           | tell them apart easily (including just from "how easy is this
           | to eat with chopsticks? could I imagine clumping this into
           | the base of nigiri sushi? could I imagine this in a
           | biryani?") but I think that's very different from deciding
           | that one is better. To me your statement is like saying
           | people cannot tell the difference a French baguette, focaccia
           | and Japanese milk bread because "it's just bread". I think
           | you wouldn't confuse them unless you were really distracted.
        
             | solarmist wrote:
             | I agree with you and can tell, but I doubt most people
             | around me could. They could understand each type of rice is
             | different but wouldn't have a clue which is which.
             | 
             | It was a bit of hyperbole, but I think you'd be surprised
             | how undifferentiated people's pallets can be if they aren't
             | eating something constantly.
        
           | djtango wrote:
           | Please don't project your own opinions of a staple that
           | people eat sometimes 3 meals a day onto others.
           | 
           | I'll beat your blind taste test everyday of the week just by
           | rolling the rice around in my mouth
           | 
           | EDIT fwiw you can vaguely bucket 1.4 billion people into "eat
           | basmati" 673M+1.4B people into "eat jasmine" and 150M+50M
           | into "eat short grain" rice which is well over a third of the
           | planet
        
             | solarmist wrote:
             | I agree with you. I can tell them apart (Not Japanese vs.
             | California rice, though).
             | 
             | I should have qualified that to randomly selected
             | Americans/Europeans. And that they could understand each
             | type of rice is different but wouldn't have a clue which is
             | which.
        
               | djtango wrote:
               | I would enjoy a California be Japanese blind taste test.
               | My mother in law has started buying Vietnamese-grown
               | Japanese short grain - I think I can taste the difference
               | but it could also be the cooking method
               | 
               | As a cash strapped student I would buy Korean short grain
               | as it was cheaper
        
               | solarmist wrote:
               | Yeah, the cooking method (and the water it's cooked in)
               | has a much larger effect than the origin of the rice.
        
         | duffyjp wrote:
         | My wife is Japanese and we buy Japanese style rice grown in
         | California (Nishiki Premium). She still complains it isn't as
         | good, but my theory is it's actually the water used in prep.
         | Our Wisconsin water is incredibly hard, and water in Tokyo
         | won't scale a kettle EVER. It's very, very good.
        
           | cynicalkane wrote:
           | Try The Rice Factory, a rice importer in New York state. They
           | import prize rice from Japan, in refrigerated containers.
           | It's a clear step up in quality from anything grown in
           | California.
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | Well yeah, but you're comparing steak from the blue ribbon
             | cow to Tyson, I sure hope they win. You might still be
             | right about regional quality but you should at least
             | compare the best both have to offer.
             | 
             | I would be amazed if rice grown by Japanese immigrants like
             | Koda or Tamkai couldn't reach the level and it really was
             | the land that made the difference.
        
           | j7ake wrote:
           | Test your theory by using distilled or soft water to make
           | your rice.
        
           | sabareesh wrote:
           | Nailed it, More often it is the water than the other
           | ingredient even with the coffee
        
             | dageshi wrote:
             | Especially with coffee, the difference between hard and
             | soft water when making coffee is very noticeable.
        
           | gopher_space wrote:
           | My family buys bags of flour every time we're in Canada
           | because the old recipes apparently don't taste quite right
           | with anything else. We'll probably keep doing it because it's
           | kind of fun.
        
             | comeonbro wrote:
             | Canadian "all-purpose" flour has a higher gluten content
             | than American "all-purpose" flour. It's closer to American
             | "bread flour".
             | 
             | That's aside from whatever harder-to-measure taste
             | differences it might have, but it makes a big difference by
             | itself.
        
           | genocidicbunny wrote:
           | You could run an experiment pretty trivially to determine if
           | the hardness of the water is the issue. Get one of those
           | charcoal filters, get some coffee filters, and cook some rice
           | with various combinations of the filtering.
           | 
           | The previous place I lived in had very hard water, and I
           | found that running the water through both a coffee filter and
           | then a Brita charcoal filter worked rather well to soften the
           | water and improve the quality of the rice I was cooking.
        
         | mandevil wrote:
         | If a "Japanese agricultural official" is not claiming that
         | Japan produces the best-tasting rice in the world, he is
         | failing at his job! His job is to promote Japanese agriculture,
         | at home and abroad.
         | 
         | As you say, there are different kinds of rice that taste and
         | feel differently, and you should use the right one for your
         | recipe, but debating with a marketing person about their
         | superlative is a futile exercise.
        
           | Spivak wrote:
           | Yep, I'm sure Ohio has the best corn in the world if you ask
           | the ODA and New York has the best pizza if you ask their
           | tourism division.
        
           | darby_nine wrote:
           | > If a "Japanese agricultural official" is not claiming that
           | Japan produces the best-tasting rice in the world, he is
           | failing at his job!
           | 
           | Surely this would be better served with a believable
           | statement rather than blatantly subjective hyperbole.
        
         | rasz wrote:
         | >Luxury cars won't lose out to ordinary ones even if the price
         | is higher.
         | 
         | meet Lexus LFA vs Corvette.
        
           | georgeecollins wrote:
           | That's a really interesting comparison because the LFA is
           | such a good car. But the Corvette has much more brand equity
           | because its been what it is longer than most of its buyers
           | have been alive. The LFA just wasn't around long enough to
           | build broad awareness. A closer comparison is 911 vs
           | Corvette. You can always charge more for a 911, both cars
           | have a ton of brand loyalty. The 911 is the Japanese rice,
           | the Corvette is the California rice :)
        
         | AlbertCory wrote:
         | This calls out for a Triangle Test! There are a lot of Japanese
         | where I live, and grocery stores that cater to them. It would
         | be easy to test whether people really _can_ tell the
         | difference.
        
         | dmoy wrote:
         | The best rice I've had is in far northeastern China
         | (Heilongjiang or Jilin province). Which seems weird to me given
         | the geography, but I guess I don't know shit about rice
         | farming.
        
           | pragmomm wrote:
           | Many studies have shown that the heavy metal content in
           | (Chinese) rice exceeds food safety standards, especially
           | levels of cadium (Cd) and lead (Pb)
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9754602/
        
             | dmoy wrote:
             | Yea I mean I would not be surprised about this either. See
             | also: sketchy cooking oil (sometimes literally transported
             | in fuel tankers?), sketchy milk, etc etc. Food safety in
             | China is still getting up to speed.
             | 
             | Though if we're talking specifically about heavy metals,
             | iirc northeastern China has better (lower) heavy metal
             | levels compared to a lot of other parts of China
        
         | maxglute wrote:
         | I think Japanese rice in a decent Japanese rice cooker with
         | millions of engineering hours poured into competently cooking
         | Japanese rice consistently produces pretty great rice. Flavour
         | / texture wise, I'd pick Thai rice cooked from stove top over
         | it any day.
        
         | zoogeny wrote:
         | Just one man's anecdote: I worked a short walk from a specialty
         | Japanese food store when I lived in New York city. It was the
         | kind of place that had fresh produce and fish/meat flown in
         | from Japan a few days per week. They had a very large section
         | of Japanese rice that had been produced in Japan (e.g. all of
         | the packaging including ingredients etc. were in Japanese and
         | the store manually overlaid printed labeled stickers in
         | English). I pretty much exclusively ate rice I bought there for
         | 2 or 3 years cooked in a mid-range Zojirushi rice cooker (as an
         | aside - this is my favorite and most used kitchen appliance to
         | this day and I would replace it in a heart beat if it ever
         | stops working)
         | 
         | The premium brands of Japanese rice that I would buy were
         | slightly better than the current Kokuho Rose brand I get now
         | (this is the best I can find in semi-rural Canada). The biggest
         | difference in quality were brown rice variants (e.g. genmai)
         | that I have been unable to find anywhere else. But the short-
         | grain white rice weren't so much better that I really miss
         | them. The quality is maybe 5% better but the cost to have it
         | imported here is more than double, so very much not worth it.
        
       | herdrick wrote:
       | There is no rice shortage in Japan currently, at least not in the
       | sense of the word 'shortage' in economics. Prices are not held
       | artificially low (they are influenced by the state in a market-
       | friendly way through restrictions in supply), and so we see that
       | rice is as available as ever, just at a higher price than last
       | year.
        
         | eriri wrote:
         | Available as ever? Here at Tokyo, rice aisles are literally
         | empty right now in stores everywhere.
        
           | herdrick wrote:
           | Oh wow! Sorry about that. Empty aisles, i.e. a true shortage,
           | only happens due to an artificially low price -- do you know
           | what is holding the price down in this case? Perhaps price
           | gouging laws? Or (misguided) big chain stores' policies
           | against big price increases?
           | 
           | I recommend little mom-and-pop stores. Typically they feel
           | free to quietly charge a market-clearing price.
        
             | bsder wrote:
             | > Empty aisles, i.e. a true shortage, only happens due to
             | an artificially low price
             | 
             | That's not true due to Always Late Inventory(tm). See:
             | Covid and toilet paper in the US.
             | 
             | Because inventory is optimized to almost nothing, a demand
             | shock can strip the shelves (the last remaining point of
             | inventory) before pricing can adjust. Super-optimization
             | means that supply has very little ability to increase and
             | it would take many months to backfill the drained edge
             | inventory. Prices shoot up, but don't actually make a dent
             | as there is enough inelastic demand to always drain the
             | incremental inventory resupply.
             | 
             | Add in the fact that a harvest is a specific point in time
             | while consumption is continuous and it's really easy to
             | wind up in a shortage situation that takes a remarkably
             | long time to correct.
        
       | knowitnone wrote:
       | this article is completely bogus. there is no shortage. this was
       | done on purpose via government policy
        
       | tjpnz wrote:
       | Wife bought a big bag of white rice yesterday. You can still find
       | it although not necessarily at big supermarkets.
        
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