[HN Gopher] Disrupting a covert Iranian influence operation
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       Disrupting a covert Iranian influence operation
        
       Author : saikatsg
       Score  : 80 points
       Date   : 2024-08-16 18:39 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (openai.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (openai.com)
        
       | ImHereToVote wrote:
       | I wonder if it would be possible to get a list of countries that
       | can have influence operations using ChatGPT and countries that
       | can't.
        
         | janice1999 wrote:
         | > Russia, China, Iran, and Israel
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/g-s1-1670/openai-influence-op...
        
           | ein0p wrote:
           | This doesn't pass the sniff test. Each of these countries has
           | domestically developed, strong LLMs. And even if they did
           | not, they'd have absolutely no issue running the larger FOSS
           | ones. You don't need GPT4 to generate political drivel.
        
             | axus wrote:
             | Sounds like OpenAI marketing is stronger than patriotism
             | for home-grown LLMs.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | More likely someone is trying to pass a few basement
               | dwellers as major nation state influence operations.
        
             | kgeist wrote:
             | Indeed, Russia has YandexGPT and Gigachat which are more
             | than enough for generating articles (although they're far
             | worse at reasoning).
        
             | dtquad wrote:
             | It takes a lot of GPU to run the larger FOSS LLMs. The
             | OpenAI API is still the cheapest way to get high-quality
             | LLM generations.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | Tell that to someone else. I run LLaMA70B in my garage.
               | Works fine, cost is negligible.
        
           | wslh wrote:
           | Those four results only show the metapropaganda limitations.
           | There are more countries in the world that are less "fancy"
           | and included in the list. Weird that you don't include
           | America though. BTW, your comment reminds me this very basic
           | espionage issue [1].
           | 
           | [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/bdjh8o/ti
           | l_t...
        
         | lancesells wrote:
         | I don't think that would matter. I live in the US and I would
         | guess there are plenty of people in this country that work for
         | countries that aren't allowed to use it. Same goes for other
         | countries having people who work for the US.
         | 
         | I really don't think it would take that many people to run
         | propoganda campaigns with modern tools.
        
         | hobo_in_library wrote:
         | Only countries with dedicated PsyOps divisions are allowed to
         | use ChatGPT for influence operations, obviously
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_operations_(Unit...
        
         | colordrops wrote:
         | I hope they put the same restrictions on Israel but I doubt it.
         | Multiple core OpenAI team members have expressed pro-Israel
         | comments, some very murderous and ugly, so I doubt their
         | ability to be unbiased here.
        
           | jjmarr wrote:
           | https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/meta-openai-say-
           | disrup...
           | 
           | https://openai.com/index/disrupting-deceptive-uses-of-AI-
           | by-...
           | 
           | OpenAI has also banned Israeli influence operations. Do you
           | think the above isn't going far enough?
           | 
           | It's also strange that you call out all pro-Israel comments
           | as a cause for concern.
        
       | akira2501 wrote:
       | Wow. What a high value target. [0]
       | 
       | I mean. I get that low rent actors will use low rent services to
       | try to generate political garbage. Is there any evidence that
       | this is actually having a measurable or meaningful impact?
       | 
       | Who exactly is fooled by these sites? And is it the sites that
       | are the problem or the relative lack of sophistication in
       | American education when it comes to political corruption?
       | 
       | [0]: https://niothinker.com/
        
       | katzinsky wrote:
       | Yeah. Knowing my tools are judging my political positions and
       | could self destruct if the authors disagree just makes me love
       | using my computer.
       | 
       | This is why I only use local models these days.
       | 
       | EDIT: Out of posts for today but I've been pretty happy with
       | Gemma2. The context is short but the performance is very good and
       | it's easy to disable refusal.
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | Just curious, which local models?
        
           | tonetegeatinst wrote:
           | I know the Facebook model was good. Checkout r/locallamma for
           | guidance, or check the ranking website.
        
       | lambdaba wrote:
       | The only thing noteworthy about this is how small-scale this is,
       | and that the perpetrators don't even bother/have the means to set
       | up their own infrastructure.
        
         | chatmasta wrote:
         | The noteworthy thing is that OpenAI is reporting it. They're
         | signaling that they are proactively monitoring and
         | investigating this activity, and that they're willing to work
         | with federal agencies while self-policing their negative
         | externalities.
         | 
         | This is all part of an ongoing conversation with lobbyists
         | about "safe AI," and it's ultimately done to show that OpenAI
         | is making an effort to mitigate the risks that regulators claim
         | it creates.
         | 
         | But there's also another signal, which is what they're _not_
         | broadcasting: "ChatGPT can be used for propaganda, it works in
         | Persian too, and we're happy to sell to the DoD."
        
           | lancesells wrote:
           | It's a good thing for them to report this, but for a company
           | that decided against watermarking their output they are kind
           | of complicit.
           | 
           | I know they might lose their teens and college demographic if
           | they do it, but if it's truly this world-changing tool that
           | they claim than not watermarking is scraping the serial
           | number off the guns they're selling.*
           | 
           | * Maybe a shitty analogy
        
       | programmarchy wrote:
       | The linked PDF (Storm-2035 [1]) from Microsoft is more detailed
       | and interesting than the blog post. However, what's missing from
       | the reports is _how_ they detected those operations and how they
       | tied them to different groups. There 's a lot of claims being
       | made without showing all of the supporting evidence.
       | 
       | To give them the benefit of the doubt, they likely want to keep
       | their detection methods secret to make circumvention more
       | difficult. And it all sounds totally plausible of course. But at
       | the same time, a degree of skepticism is warranted because
       | Microsoft has a huge incentive to fearmonger about AI so they can
       | lock it down and capture the market. And what better way is there
       | than to use the usual bogeymen to do so.
       | 
       | [1] https://cdn-
       | dynmedia-1.microsoft.com/is/content/microsoftcor...
        
         | com2kid wrote:
         | Having worked at Microsoft for almost a decade, I remember
         | chatting with their security people plenty after meetings. One
         | interesting thing I learned is that Microsoft (and all the
         | other top tech companies presumably) are under constant
         | Advanced Persistent Threat from state actors. From literal
         | secret agents getting jobs and working undercover for a decade+
         | to obtain seniority, to physical penetration attempts (some
         | buildings on MS campus used to have armed security, before
         | Cloud server farms were a thing!).
         | 
         | Microsoft is one of the few companies that goes toe to toe with
         | world governments every day of the year.
         | 
         | And I imagine balancing that next to all the engineers who
         | demand admin access everywhere is a royal pain!
         | 
         | Although the best Government VS Business story I heard was
         | during intern orientation at Boeing about French agents
         | breaking into Boeing employee's hotel rooms during a conference
         | in France while the employees were out to dinner, and going
         | through laptops. One of the employees returned earlier than
         | expected, and the men in suits shut the laptop, turned around
         | and walked out of the room w/o saying anything!
        
           | BoingBoomTschak wrote:
           | > Microsoft is one of the few companies that goes toe to toe
           | with world governments every day of the year.
           | 
           | It's also the company which was the first and longest member
           | of PRISM, meaning very deep ties to the less savory parts of
           | the US gov and {five,nine,fourteen} eyes. I know it's a
           | boring advice, but I'd take this kind of declaration with a
           | truckload of salt.
        
       | greatgib wrote:
       | What they don't say on their post but that we can guess and is
       | from interest is that they probably had to spy their user
       | messages to determinate that they used the account for generate
       | content for the influence operation.
       | 
       | For sure the purpose is noble, but it is good to remind everyone
       | that everything you type, submit or generate there is not private
       | but could be randomly snooped by strangers!
        
         | szundi wrote:
         | Naah, probably they used OpenAI apis to read, summarize and
         | categorize everything
        
         | TOMDM wrote:
         | That or they could store hashes of chunks of output to compare
         | to propaganda in the wild.
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | From a Google search it looks like this is one of the articles in
       | question: https://teorator.com/index.php/2024/08/12/x-censors-
       | trumps-t...
       | 
       | I requested the Internet Archive grab this copy:
       | https://web.archive.org/web/20240816210620/https://teorator....
        
         | throw310822 wrote:
         | Looks exceedingly good to be Ai-generated. Also, it appears to
         | be slightly pro-Trump, which doesn't sound like in Iran's
         | interest.
        
           | stickfigure wrote:
           | It is clear to me that Russia, Iran, North Korea are playing
           | a zero-sum game. Anything that creates chaos in US politics
           | (or European politics) is in their interest. Donald Trump
           | represents chaos.
        
             | ignoramous wrote:
             | > _Russia, Iran, North Korea_
             | 
             | You're missing China & Israel: https://www.theguardian.com/
             | technology/article/2024/may/30/o... /
             | https://archive.is/y0V3A
             | 
             | And, according to OpenAI, they're interfering not just in
             | the US: https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-
             | sabha/openai-says-sta... / https://archive.is/RWn8X
        
             | cedws wrote:
             | They want to sow discord. Manipulating US politics in any
             | meaningful way is difficult to do. It's easier to divide
             | and conquer and turn your enemy against itself.
             | 
             | In my opinion the West is already doing a good enough job
             | at polarising itself, doesn't need much help from the
             | enemy.
        
               | zmgsabst wrote:
               | Of course we are:
               | 
               | Domestic enemies came to the same conclusion.
        
             | gwervc wrote:
             | > Donald Trump represents chaos.
             | 
             | Very strange perspective when talking about the _only_ US
             | president of our times that didn 't start a war, made
             | historical diplomatic advances with North Korea, made a
             | deal with talibans to end war in Afghanistan. I'm probably
             | forgetting a few but his track record is impressive.
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | From the article:
           | 
           | > Some of the X accounts posed as progressives, and others as
           | conservatives.
           | 
           | My impression is that these influence campaigns know that
           | they need to produce a LOT of content that appears to reflect
           | different opinions and perspectives if they're going to
           | appear to be "real" - that way they can build trust with an
           | audience before attempting to influence them in one direction
           | or another.
        
             | Bluestein wrote:
             | (it's funny ...
             | 
             | ... until then, they might end up being - even if
             | inadvertently - more objective than most outlets.-
        
           | lukev wrote:
           | Really? Trump has always been much weaker in diplomacy with
           | nations that are historically antagonistic to the US. He'll
           | have a meeting with their leader, let them flatter him, and
           | come away convinced that they're "very nice" and make a lot
           | of concessions.
           | 
           | He's basically an admirer of Putin at this point.
        
             | chrisco255 wrote:
             | The Abraham accords were and are a good development he
             | implemented. The Obama administration in 2015 attempted to
             | bribe Iran into not enriching uranium by effectively paying
             | them $100 billion.
        
               | blackguardx wrote:
               | Can you cite a source on that? That doesn't match my
               | understanding of the events.
        
           | dtquad wrote:
           | >Iran's interests
           | 
           | Nobody has cared about "Iran's interests" since 1979. The
           | rulers of Iran follow their own pan-Shia Islamist ideology
           | that puts "Iran's interests" dead last.
           | 
           | They wouldn't mind baiting another warmongering US president
           | into another unwinnable 20+ year trillion dollar war.
        
             | littlestymaar wrote:
             | Their reaction since Hamas' attempted to drag them into the
             | war shows the opposite: they showed they'd rather take
             | humiliating blows rather than go to war.
        
       | joe_the_user wrote:
       | I don't think people should jump to any "this is the level Iran
       | is at?" conclusions.
       | 
       | Many nations employ "patriotic citizens" in an informal and semi-
       | formal fashion along with trained propaganda and "infowar"
       | experts. I know of China and Israel doing this but I'd assume
       | it's everywhere.
        
         | det2x wrote:
         | Iran is definately putting out mass propaganda especially on
         | social media.
         | 
         | Israel has one of if not the largest propaganda/bot campaigns
         | on the entire planet, followed by either Russia or China. It's
         | definately working for them so they won't be stopping anytime
         | soon.
        
       | djaouen wrote:
       | This is as much an indictment of ChatGPT as it is of the
       | Iranians. According to OpenAI, their product produces output that
       | no one in their right mind would want to read for any purpose.
        
         | echoangle wrote:
         | How is that a bad thing for OpenAI though? It depends on the
         | prompting, I wouldn't count the ability to generate
         | useless/stupid/misleading content when prompted to do this as a
         | negative.
        
       | hobo_in_library wrote:
       | It's hard to take an article like this at face value when they
       | provide zero evidence for any of their claims.
       | 
       | This is coming soon after Trump decided to accuse Iran of being
       | behind his assassination attempt (done by a white 20 year old)
       | and Israel literally assassinated Hamas's chief negotiator while
       | he was visiting Iran.
       | 
       | It seems like the powers that be are desperate for a war with
       | Iran and will continue beating the drum to build consent.
       | 
       | Reminds me of the build up to the 2003 Iraq invasion (you know,
       | because "they have WMDs")
        
       | usefulcat wrote:
       | I'd be more interested in an analysis of the likely intention of
       | the campaign. Is it just an attempt to reduce voter turnout? If
       | so, that doesn't seem all that useful by itself.
        
         | dfhvneoieno wrote:
         | Iran wants Democrats, Russia wants Republicans.
         | 
         | It's easy to see which one is more successful. Every time you
         | blame something on Russia, people come out of the woods
         | "explaining" why Russia is actually the victim (Russia is
         | ALWAYS the victim, is what I've learned from this people).
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | Russia definitely has a non zero amount of people supporting
           | or apologizing it's actions all around the world.
           | 
           | It's dangerous to assume all of the content you see is simply
           | some shady operation or fake, having controversial opinions
           | on any topic is nothing new, millions of Americans don't
           | believe in the moon landings.
           | 
           | In general I don't think it's a good idea to discuss politics
           | online, and I feel like many talk too much geopolitics but
           | can't even tell the policies or programs of their own city
           | mayor candidates which are way more important for their own
           | lives and directly impacting.
        
             | aguaviva wrote:
             | In regard to local issues being way more impactful in one's
             | life:
             | 
             | If one is from, or has close contacts in or from the
             | regions affected by geopolitics -- then this is
             | unfortunately very much not the case.
             | 
             | As disappointed as I am with local politicians -- they
             | aren't bombing my friends into the ground, or forcing them
             | to move halfway across the planet indefinitely. Or causing
             | these to deal with significant emotional anguish, even if
             | they aren't forced to move, or directly under threat.
             | 
             | While a solid contingent on HN regularly either apologies
             | for / minimizes their actions, or just seems to shoot from
             | its hip based on their hunch as to what is happening,
             | without any indication of having done much research or
             | questioning their sources. Or even just thinking logically
             | about the various narratives they're reading. For most of
             | them it seems to be more about ideological abstractions
             | than anything real and concrete, in any case.
             | 
             | So that, plus the simple fact that this is a global
             | community is why geopolitics floats to the top, as it were.
             | 
             | Whether talking about it online is productive or helpful in
             | any way is another matter altogether. Turns out it's
             | generally not easy to talk about these things in person,
             | even with people one knows rather well (as most of the time
             | they'd prefer to talk about pretty much anything but "the
             | situation").
             | 
             | Being as the "shit" in question is all too real for them.
        
       | PerilousD wrote:
       | These jokers seem like the AI version of "script kiddie" hackers,
       | and OpenAI may be engaging in a bit of humble bragging. It
       | doesn't take considerable investments in time or money to run
       | local LLMs, INCLUDING ChatGPT, where your questions, prompts, and
       | results are not sent home to the mothership, so it's a BS article
       | as to (the real) actors who may or may not be doing this. NOW, if
       | OpenAI or Gemini or LLama, etc, showed how they analyzed social
       | media posts and flagged the ones that were AI generated and the
       | analysis as to WHY the article is flagged, then that would be
       | much more useful, actionable by at least some of the readers and
       | would put the accounts spreading the content (particularly the
       | rebroadcast fluffers) in the spotlight.
        
         | Arainach wrote:
         | It wouldn't be useful at all, and would only serve to educate
         | malicious actors how to better evade detection.
         | 
         | It's like claiming a search engine open sourcing its ranking
         | algorithm would help people be informed instead of making
         | spammers able to perfectly hijack all the results.
        
       | commandpaul wrote:
       | Given that any self hosted open source model would have worked
       | just as well. I can't see this good faith post as anything more
       | than forwarding open ais long campaign for regulatory capture.
        
         | dtquad wrote:
         | Self-hosting LLMs is expensive at scale. It's cheaper to use VC
         | subsidized model inference like the OpenAI APIs.
        
           | CyberDildonics wrote:
           | At "scale"? At what scale?
        
           | littlestymaar wrote:
           | There are plenty of VC-subsidized inference provider which
           | uses open source LLM for much cheaper than OpenAI (which
           | isn't really VC-subsidized at this point but Microsoft-
           | subsidized).
        
           | refulgentis wrote:
           | My anecdata is most teams I've talked to say its below OpenAI
           | at scale, and vLLM is a beast. It's interesting to hear the
           | opposite, there's lots of cheaper providers, but the "VC
           | dollars" argument can go "turtles all the way down", I
           | suppose. Still, reality seems to differ.
        
       | ComplexSystems wrote:
       | Why wouldn't Iran just use Llama or something?
        
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