[HN Gopher] Rivian reduced electrical wiring by 1.6 miles and 44...
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       Rivian reduced electrical wiring by 1.6 miles and 44 pounds
        
       Author : addaon
       Score  : 159 points
       Date   : 2024-08-10 00:12 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.popsci.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.popsci.com)
        
       | warkdarrior wrote:
       | Couldn't they just use Wi-Fi? So much wiring..
        
         | Jtsummers wrote:
         | "just use Wi-Fi?", probably not. I don't think you'd want to
         | create so many openings for attackers. Besides, EMI is a real
         | issue and not something you want interfering with your critical
         | systems too much.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | > EMI is a real issue
           | 
           | To the point they are wanting to eliminate AM radio because
           | they've gotten to the point that the uncontrollable EMI makes
           | AM "unlistenable". So move the goal posts, and make AM radio
           | out-of-fashion and get rid of it rather than solving the EMI
           | issues.
        
             | katzinsky wrote:
             | 1) I don't think you'll ever be able to make an electric
             | vehicle electrically quiet enough to make AM work nicely
             | and if you somehow did between the shielding and all the
             | balancing currents there's no way it would be efficient. I
             | like AM radio but these two things are probably never going
             | to be compatible.
             | 
             | 2) WiFi really isn't as reliable as a cable. There are all
             | kinds of things internal and external that could cause an
             | outage. Why bother with that when you can just run maybe a
             | dollar of copper to the ECU?
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | So that anyone could crash your car with a jammer?
        
         | silisili wrote:
         | Ignoring wifi as a poor use case here(you'd likely use
         | something with much less interference and better latency), RF
         | will still usually have more latency than a wire. It's more
         | prone to interference from other random devices and even other
         | cars. Canbus is typically shielded, which you obviously can't
         | do with something relying on radio.
         | 
         | Then you have physical interference...imagine all your warning
         | lights come on, wipers come on, and radio cuts off because your
         | wife put her Stanley in just the wrong spot.
        
         | Gibbon1 wrote:
         | People don't like your comment but I have a side project that
         | requires controlling 36 lamps in groups of 3. I rolled it over
         | and I'm just going to slap a cheap radio on a PCB's and just
         | daisy chain the power.
        
           | kkfx wrote:
           | I've built my "smart home" explicitly without wifi [1] to
           | shield against any kind of "local exterior attack" and mere
           | communication issues due to natural phenomenon. Even for
           | light I decide for ShellyPro 4PM to avoid wireless...
           | 
           | Surely without cables it's far easier, but this easiness have
           | a price.
           | 
           | [1] with the exception of the car charger since I wasn't able
           | to find a damn cabled one (it's 230Vac, not CCS eh!)
        
             | nurettin wrote:
             | > "local exterior attack"
             | 
             | I appreciate the geek, but is this useful in practice? Does
             | it happen to anyone?
        
               | kkfx wrote:
               | I do not know any statistic, but for instance
               | https://www.cnet.com/home/security/can-burglars-jam-your-
               | wir... it's a well known phenomenon, as it's well known
               | enough you can buy a ready-made multi-frequency jammer
               | for very little price from China.
               | 
               | Aside another aspect is how to make the home impossible
               | to live in case someone illegally occupy it (here,
               | France, but essentially all south Europe is a relatively
               | new but spread thing) while you are on vacation to be
               | quicker than local authorities. Another one is avoiding
               | connecting too much black boxes to their OEM homes.
               | 
               | Another final aspect is mere reliability, as a small
               | anecdote: a neighbor due to some unknown issue have had
               | roller shutters locked down because they have ONLY a
               | wireless remote with a kind of ESP32 inside, all
               | proprietary, no emergency manual opening, no access to
               | the motor to power it directly or detach the break
               | manually on the shutters. My home while "a bit smart"
               | have a far little attack surface in that regard. For
               | instance just to have central/remote lights control I've
               | chosen a set of ShellyPro 4PM (the least expensive option
               | of that kind I was able to find) witch operate remotely
               | (LAN only, via HA or directly logging on the device,
               | extended via wireguard) but i can also operate via
               | classic mechanical switches and internally the Shelly are
               | "dumb classic switch" + extras so if their fw crash from
               | the physical buttons (not the one on the devices, but
               | their normally open contacts) they still operate. For the
               | car charger I'm obliged to go wifi (I find exactly no one
               | domestic charging station with wired connections for
               | control) but it's a dedicated WLAN (a small GL.iNet
               | "stamp" size on the back of the charger, wired to a
               | dedicated port of my homeserver on a completely separated
               | LAN without internet access and the charger itself is
               | MQTT/ModBUS-bridged to its local, internet-less
               | controller/server for p.v. integration.
               | 
               | I can't do nothing for my car and well... Sometimes it's
               | "app-service" to remote control A/C etc get connected to
               | someone else car in another country and yes, I can
               | monitor it and act on it when this happen (few times per
               | years so far). No special hacking needed. No response
               | from the vendor (MG/SAIC)... And for cars some demoed
               | serious remote vulnerabilities able to physically make a
               | car crash while running.
               | 
               | All those might be very rare events, but their
               | seriousness it's relevant enough for me to avoid them as
               | much as possible.
        
             | viraptor wrote:
             | There's often the "wifi or wired" discussion around here,
             | so I'll just add that those are not the only choices. Zwave
             | for smart devices for example is a local wireless protocol
             | which is completely separate from WiFi and doesn't have the
             | same addressing / access issues.
        
               | stavros wrote:
               | I built everything in my house with Zigbee and could not
               | be happier. The "everything is just a message queue"
               | approach that Zigbee takes is fantastic for the home, and
               | the fact that I don't have to worry about a whole
               | complicated protocol that can do anything is great.
        
           | gruturo wrote:
           | Maybe you already completed your project, maybe you already
           | knew about Charlieplexing
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlieplexing), maybe it
           | doesn't apply to your case as your controller didn't support
           | tristate output, but, just in case you didn't know about it:
           | 
           | It's a technique for controlling (or reading) large numbers
           | of LEDs, switches, etc, with surprisingly little wiring.
           | Instead of the usual X/Y of multiplexed I/O, the wiring is
           | diagonal. To control 12 outputs (36 in groups of 3) you'd
           | need just 4 pins (if your lamps are not LEDs, though, you
           | probably need to put some diodes in there)
        
         | daghamm wrote:
         | OP is heavily downvoted, but yes some ECU are moving to
         | wireless communication although not WiFi.
         | 
         | It started with places where you simply can't have wires, for
         | example tire pressure monitoring. But is now spreading to other
         | simple ECUs. And yes, it can be jammed so obviously it's not
         | for brakes and steering and things like that.
        
         | janice1999 wrote:
         | It's a good question. Wireless is already replacing wiring
         | inside the battery pack performing some of the most sensitive
         | data transmission. See here for details: https://www.gm-
         | trucks.com/explained-general-motors-wireless-...
        
       | gorgoiler wrote:
       | The before/after ECU layout diagram is very instructional.
       | 
       | I like to imagine some kind of engineering "meet cute" whereby,
       | one random day, the headlights engineer and the parking radar
       | engineer happen to be working on the front of the car together.
       | Their eyes meet:
       | 
       | "hey, I'm John -- I didn't know you had an ECU here!",
       | 
       | "hi, I'm Claire -- wow, you have an ECU right up front too? It's,
       | like, right next to mine and we never knew!"
       | 
       | "I know, crazy right?! Hey this is going to sound really forward
       | and I don't normally do this but I'm only running at 70% compute
       | capacity. I don't suppose you need any real-time budget this
       | evening?"
       | 
       | "So funny you should ask, I was just about to run a whole bunch
       | of heavy new wiring to..."
       | 
       | And in a story as old as time they get ECU married and raise
       | their control loops in the same front-of-vehicle ECU together
       | instead of living their separate, lonely, ECU-right-next-to-each-
       | other-and-they-didn't-know-it lives.
        
         | jdiez17 wrote:
         | I ... am a bit speechless ...
         | 
         | I didn't know this was something I could be into so much, and
         | yet here we are.
        
           | brundolf wrote:
           | That's what they said
        
         | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
         | Ford did this with the cost reduced version of SYNC 3, merging
         | two modules to form SYNC 2.5. The result is an unstable heap of
         | trash.
        
           | dangus wrote:
           | Well, it is Ford. You buy a Ford you should expect it to be
           | trash.
        
         | plg94 wrote:
         | wow, you made hackernews turn into tumblr. Well done, great
         | explanation.
        
       | gregmac wrote:
       | It's interesting to think about the failure modes here.
       | 
       | With domain-based ECUs, a failure means your locks OR windows OR
       | windshield wipers stop working.
       | 
       | With zone-based, it could be the entire "west" zone that stops,
       | which means you can't unlock the driver's door, open the windows,
       | adjust the seat, and maybe even the ventilation fans don't work
       | 
       | I actually thought a lot of that was already on the CAN bus
       | anyway, but my knowledge of cars stops there so maybe someone can
       | fill in the gaps. Seeing only three "zones" is actually
       | surprising to me. As I was reading I started forming the idea of
       | a single bus cable that went around the car, with I/O modules
       | anywhere there were physical buttons/lights/etc. There would just
       | have to be a cost+weight balance of where it makes sense to stick
       | a small I/O module vs run individual wires back to a bigger
       | module. My assumption is as technology advances it becomes
       | cheaper to have more small I/O modules with very short wire runs
       | to buttons, but it doesn't seem like this is what they're doing.
       | 
       | I am also making the assumption this is "dumb I/O", and somewhere
       | there is a "door lock" program that handles all locks/buttons. In
       | the main computer you'd run all the domain programs
       | individually/isolated, but there would still be a single program
       | responsible for each domain, eg: all the locks (eg: considering
       | button presses, fob buttons, door state, moving or not, etc, and
       | act on the locks accordingly).
       | 
       | From a pure software point of view, if the east/west/south ECUs
       | are actually doing the logic for their respective parts of the
       | car, that seems like a nightmare to build: the code would end up
       | being all partial and distributed. In the worst case you end up
       | with bizarre bugs like "if you open the passenger door, then open
       | the tailgate, then close the passenger door and press the lock
       | button, the driver's door will lock but the passenger won't until
       | you first unlock then shut everything" (which gets reported as
       | "the locks are unreliable, some will randomly just not work every
       | few days").
        
         | edmundsauto wrote:
         | Some door locks will trigger the servo every time you hit the
         | heron (older-ish cars) and some have a sensor. Not clear to me
         | if it's a remote sensor or some sort of smarts in the local
         | mechanism.
         | 
         | Given some of the chip shortages of recent year, I'm curious
         | how the teams responsible for those trade offs made the
         | balance.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | > "if you open the passenger door, then open the tailgate, then
         | close the passenger door and press the lock button, the
         | driver's door will lock but the passenger won't until you first
         | unlock then shut everything"
         | 
         | I have a Jeep where the dome light logic has a problem like
         | that. If you open a door, the dome light comes on. When all
         | doors are closed, but the engine is not running, the dome light
         | dims out after a delay. If the engine is running or is started
         | in the all doors closes, dome light on situation, the dome
         | light goes out. If you open the tailgate, the dome light comes
         | on as well. That's all normal.
         | 
         | But if I open a side door, then close it, and the light times
         | out and dims, then, for some period of time thereafter, opening
         | the tailgate will not turn on the light. I can just see some
         | horrid mess of IF statements written in C behind this.
        
           | sdwr wrote:
           | State management is the only difficult problem in computer
           | science
           | 
           | Or something like that
        
           | euroderf wrote:
           | Have they never heard of fuzzing.
        
         | Timshel wrote:
         | They though of the failure mode opening doors should be part of
         | the "vehicle access" which get its own ecu.
        
         | daghamm wrote:
         | There is a short answer to all this:
         | 
         | Distributed systems are hard, more so in a real-time
         | environment. If you can reduce the number of components or the
         | need for them to communicate they will almost always become
         | more robust and also easier to code.
         | 
         | Rivian added some network redundancy and central monitoring to
         | make this design safe, but otherwise the core design principle
         | was basically KISS.
        
           | morning-coffee wrote:
           | From the article:
           | 
           | > The system includes an array of 11 internally developed
           | cameras and five radars performing over 250 trillion
           | operations per second, which Rivian says is an industry-
           | leading statistic
           | 
           | I generally like what they are doing with their overall
           | architectural simplifications, but gee-zus; the feeling of
           | complexity I get from that one statement leaves me with the
           | feeling of "it's just a car man... it takes us from point A
           | to point B... is all that really necessary?"
        
             | mynameisvlad wrote:
             | The point is that it might in the future take you from
             | point A to B autonomously.
        
         | moring wrote:
         | When I read this, my first thought was: Why do these ECUs have
         | any deep logic at all? I would have expected all logic to be
         | centralized at one point (or in a few points, but with each
         | domain localized to one of them), and everything at the edge be
         | dumb(1) port extenders. That's a single point of failure, of
         | course, but as far as I understand the zonal approach has those
         | too -- multiple SPOFs, actually. At least when it's a single
         | SPOF, that problem can be better mitigated.
         | 
         | (1) "dumb" meaning no decision-making logic. It could still
         | mean a lot of decision-less logic, from button debouncing to
         | input signal filtering/processing and outputting compressed
         | audio streams.
        
         | guai888 wrote:
         | Standard approach is following ISO 26262 development to deal
         | with risk resulting from failure mode.
        
         | Lvl999Noob wrote:
         | > With zone-based, it could be the entire "west" zone that
         | stops, which means you can't unlock the driver's door, open the
         | windows, adjust the seat, and maybe even the ventilation fans
         | don't work
         | 
         | From my reading, I thought the important parts were on their
         | own dedicated ECUs (7 ECUs, 3 zones). Battery management,
         | driving related stuff, infotainment, door mechanisms, etc have
         | their own ECUs. The three zones are for smaller things that are
         | probably important but not urgently important.
        
         | Moto7451 wrote:
         | Some cars work this way logically already. If you scan my Audi
         | with a compatible tool it will read various functional modules.
         | If one dies than that modules' systems go down but other nearby
         | functions work. Child locking is a separate unit from door
         | locking and as a result in my car my driver side rear door will
         | lock in such a way that only the inside manual latch will open
         | the door.
         | 
         | The dealer can't figure out the issue four years in.
        
         | techdmn wrote:
         | Some days I'm really happy that I kept at least one analog car.
        
       | indoorcomic wrote:
       | I love this. I hope this more manufactures go this route. I've
       | always felt that having ~100 ECUs in a car is complete overkill.
        
         | Jtsummers wrote:
         | See gregmac's comment, it changes the failure modes and makes
         | what could be isolated subsystem failures larger regional
         | failures. However, components are also becoming much more
         | reliable so this is an engineering tradeoff. Cases can be made
         | in both directions.
         | 
         | EDIT: That's not the only tradeoff, but it is a key one.
        
           | metadat wrote:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41207335
           | 
           | In the future, please include the actual link. It is 10x more
           | useful.
        
         | AlotOfReading wrote:
         | I've been a (somewhat successful) advocate of similar
         | approaches at the automakers I've worked for, but it's not as
         | simple as the article makes it sound. Individual components in
         | each "zone" can have different reliability requirements, for
         | example. They also might be produced by different suppliers, or
         | only be present on certain models / trims.
         | 
         | Rivian is able to do this because they're taking advantage of
         | modern heterogenous processors and they haven't made the
         | mistake of outsourcing almost all of their software
         | capabilities to tier 1,2,3 suppliers. Legacy OEMs find it much
         | more difficult to adopt, especially once the institutional
         | inertia takes over.
        
         | Ekaros wrote:
         | Replacing word ECU with micro-controller makes number seem less
         | insane. Okay, PCs are having less and less components. But one
         | might ask why do so many components have any logic at all? We
         | got extremely insanely powerful central CPUs with loads of
         | memory and storage space. So why not just do absolutely
         | everything there?
         | 
         | Remove any logic and computing from screens, keyboards, mice,
         | SSDs, HDDs, off load everything from network chips and sounds
         | chips. Just move all of it to CPU?
        
           | moring wrote:
           | I think you'd want at least some "dumb" logic moved to the
           | periphery, otherwise everything has to be conected directly
           | to the CPU and you would still end up with tons of wiring.
           | Also, some functions done in the periphery are ideal
           | candidates for parallelization, such as the keyboard scanning
           | the key matrix for pressed keys.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | Seems like modularization is going to be beneficial pretty
             | much anytime you can define an interface you think is going
             | to be somewhat stable.
             | 
             | I wonder to what extent Rivian has removed intermediate
             | controllers here, where they used them in the first place
             | to get things done on a tighter timeline.
        
             | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
             | The value proposition of CAN bus is that peripherals can be
             | scattered around connected by two data lines and a power
             | wire. Dumb peripherals need more wiring.
        
               | moring wrote:
               | They are deviating from that already, aren't they? If
               | they use one ECU per zone, then the peripherals in that
               | zone can't be connected via CAN bus, otherwise they would
               | need their own controller.
        
       | OptionOfT wrote:
       | I think having multiple ECUs over time is a cost savings
       | mechanism. You have a module that you can use in all your models
       | because it works.
       | 
       | If Rivian wants to add a new feature that doesn't 'fit' on the
       | AIO ecu, then what? Replace it and re-certify ALL of its
       | functions?
       | 
       | A good example is the ABS controller which is usually just a
       | Bosch COTS ECU.
       | 
       | You wouldn't even want to implement that for yourself.
        
       | daghamm wrote:
       | "four categories get their own ECUs: infotainment, autonomy,
       | vehicle access, drive units, and its battery management system."
       | 
       | Am I reading this wrong, or are these actually five categories?
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | Given the wording of "drive units, and its battery management
         | system" I'd think the BMS is linked to the drive units and
         | under the same ECU. I'd assume the drive units and BMS are
         | tightly integrated, as that's basically the entire high-voltage
         | system and you have to manage the two-ways energy flow between
         | the two (propulsion and braking / regen).
        
           | trainsarebetter wrote:
           | Not really, the FOC software that runs on the inverters is
           | compute heavy and safety critical. It gets its own dedicated
           | controller (they are actually running to cpus in parallel in
           | case one fails) and same with the bms. They talk over can
           | currently in teslas. bms states it's max charge and discharge
           | current, and everything else listens
        
       | schobi wrote:
       | The diagrams for the new west south and east zones still show a
       | lot of wires going all across the vehicle. This step might be a
       | good first one to reduce the number of ECUs by combining them,
       | but there is still the same cross-car wiring. You still seem to
       | have a single ECU per function, but merged into a few dedicated
       | boxes for example.
       | 
       | Next step: Each wire only goes to the nearest box. I'm curious
       | how the Tesla unboxed architecture will eventually play out. I
       | understand that eventually, the ECUs will be split up, so you
       | have some aspect of each ECU in each corner of the vehicle. Part
       | of the "lights" function is in front-left, part of it in the
       | back. Wires only go to the nearest box.
       | 
       | A powerful vision, with the potential to further reduce wiring.
       | Complex until you get a distributed brake ECU.
        
       | yc-kraln wrote:
       | The electrical wiring in cars is Conway's law manifest in copper.
       | 
       | For those unfamiliar with Conway's law, I am arguing that how the
       | car companies have organized themselves--and their budgets--ends
       | up being directly reflected in the number of ECUs as well as how
       | they're connected with each other. I imagine that by measuring
       | the amount of excess copper, you'd have a pretty good measure for
       | the overhead involved in the project management from the
       | manufacturers' side.
       | 
       | (I previously worked for Daimler)
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | Would be funny to have a 'mm Cu / FTE' scaling law.
        
           | throwaway48476 wrote:
           | Complexity is a function of the number and depth of
           | suppliers.
        
           | westurner wrote:
           | The ohm*meter^3 is the unit of electrical resistance.
           | 
           | Electrical resistivity and conductivity: https://en.wikipedia
           | .org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_con...
           | 
           | Is there a name for Wh/m or W/m (of Cu or C) of loss? Just %
           | signal loss?
           | 
           | "Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification" (2024)
           | https://www.ief.org/focus/ief-reports/copper-mining-and-
           | vehi... .. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40542826
           | 
           | There's already conductive graphene 3d printing filament (and
           | far less conductive graphene). Looks like 0.8ohm*cm may be
           | the least resistive graphene filament available: https://www.
           | google.com/search?q=graphene+3d+printer+filament...
           | 
           | Are there yet CNT or TWCNT Twisted Carbon Nanotube
           | substitutes for copper wiring?
        
       | lofaszvanitt wrote:
       | 3rd generation: no wires from sensors to detectors.
        
         | twoWhlsGud wrote:
         | 4th generation: wires are back so the car doesn't stop working
         | every time it drives by a source of RF noise...
        
       | xbmcuser wrote:
       | I recalled I read something similar before so I searched for it.
       | It was Tesla doing something like this in 2019
       | 
       | https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-ar...
       | 
       | "In order to facilitate the automation of manipulating cables,
       | Tesla has been reducing the length of wiring harnesses in its
       | vehicles.
       | 
       | Musk said that Model S has about 3 kilometers of wiring harnesses
       | and Tesla brought it down to 1.5 kilometers in length for the
       | Model 3.
       | 
       | But that's just the beginning. Tesla is working on a whole new
       | wiring architecture for future vehicle platforms and they aim to
       | bring it down to just 100 meters starting with the Model Y."
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | Tesla have taken it to a whole new level on cyber truck.
         | 
         | It is assumed this will continue in their next gen vehicles
        
           | theluketaylor wrote:
           | The legacy car makers have flirted with 48V components for
           | decades but haven't been willing to do the hard work to
           | realize all the benefits it brings. The germans in particular
           | are stuck in limbo. For their PHEV and BEV cars they are
           | shipping 12V for all traditional functions, 48V for advanced
           | functions like active suspension and anti-roll bars, and high
           | voltage systems for the traction motor. Complete mess.
           | 
           | It's frustrating to be a Tesla owner. For every great
           | engineering choice they make like going all in on 48V they
           | make a user hostile choice like removing stalks and selling
           | "full self driving" that is downright dangerous.
        
             | jvanderbot wrote:
             | The single most frustrating thing Tesla did re: Power was
             | not allowing me to plug an appliance in. We lose power
             | somewhat regularly where I live due to storms, and the
             | tesla has 6-10 days of my household power budget sitting in
             | its banks. Just let me plug in a deep freezer and coffee
             | maker, please.
             | 
             | INB4 the 12V terminals: They are hard to access, have
             | limited amps, and are _a separate crappy battery_.
        
               | trainsarebetter wrote:
               | For sure, but the economics don't work out for the
               | earlier Bev battery chemistry's. The additional cycle
               | where from v2x don't justify it, getting a power wall
               | just makes more sense in the long run.
               | 
               | But I still agree the option should be there for
               | emergencies
        
               | jvanderbot wrote:
               | The thing is, Tesla is the _only_ large battery I can put
               | in my house, according to local regulations (I can get
               | solar+battery, but the solar provider terms in my area
               | are garbage, and I can only sell power to local company
               | and get credits for later use. I can 't actually store
               | it).
               | 
               | This is a disruption opportunity wasted.
        
             | postalrat wrote:
             | Adding one additional voltage doesn't turn something from
             | elegant to a complete mess.
             | 
             | I don't know why you mentioned the traction motor voltage
             | as part of the mess. Do you want hundreds of volts DC
             | running all over the car?
        
             | throwaway48476 wrote:
             | The problem is for the whole industry to go 48V costs money
             | and whoever pays will also benefit the competition because
             | everyone has the same suppliers. There needs to be some
             | kind of industry regulation that says by so and so date
             | everything had to be 48V.
        
             | katzinsky wrote:
             | In my homebrew BEV I've started just using AC for most
             | smaller things. It's easier than finding 48v components,
             | the connectors are nicer than 12v (I've really come to hate
             | cigarette lighter plugs) the high voltage means the
             | conductors can be small and the zero crossing means the
             | switches can be much cheaper too.
             | 
             | And being able to find replacement parts at the dollar
             | store no matter where you are is really great.
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | > _selling "full self driving" that is downright
             | dangerous._
             | 
             | Is there evidence of this, at this point?
             | 
             | I haven't looked into it in several years, but back then,
             | Teslas were getting in fewer accidents per driver mile than
             | average. I would think given that there's a faction of the
             | public, and especially of the activist public, who are
             | hostile to Tesla/Musk, that if FSD is in fact more
             | dangerous (which would mean more accidents per driver
             | mile), there would be a good URL you could provide us which
             | makes that case using the available statistics on the
             | subject.
             | 
             | Because it's an entirely empirical question. Anyone can
             | argue from first principles in either direction, but one of
             | two things are the reality: either FSD driver miles are
             | less prone to accident than average, or they're more so. I
             | suppose it could be precisely at 50%, as well.
        
               | mrgoldenbrown wrote:
               | It may be an empirical question, but as long as Tesla
               | insists on keeping the raw data secret, it's reasonable
               | to suspect their conclusions/claims
               | 
               | https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-autopilot-crash-
               | inv...
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | To do proper statistical analysis, you'd need to compare
               | miles driven with FSD to miles driven by humans in
               | _similar_ conditions. That 's not the easiest thing to
               | do. Tesla had occasionaly released statistics with their
               | earlier driver assistance technology, but without enough
               | detail to form informative comparisons. Based on past
               | experience, I don't expect Tesla to provide meaningful
               | statistical data or to allow outside access to their raw
               | data (which fwiw, seems like a huge privacy risk to
               | collect), so I don't think we'll have an empirical result
               | unless there's discovery for a lawsuit.
        
               | theluketaylor wrote:
               | Extensive analysis of Tesla and NHTSA crash reporting
               | (some by NHTSA themselves) shows that autopilot and fsd
               | do not have significantly better safety outcomes than
               | manual drivers or drivers aided by other non-tesla
               | assistance systems.
               | 
               | This NHTSA report is pretty damning about Tesla's
               | cavalier attitude towards the design of safe systems.
               | 
               | https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-
               | EA22002-14496.pdf
               | 
               | https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/04/26/tes
               | la-...
               | 
               | https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new
               | -te...
               | 
               | https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-autopilot-risky-deaths-
               | cra...
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | > _shows that autopilot and fsd do not have significantly
               | better safety outcomes_
               | 
               | Ok. So in the middle then. Not, in other words,
               | "downright dangerous".
               | 
               | That would be, worse safety outcomes. Rather than
               | insignificantly better.
        
               | gamblor956 wrote:
               | _either FSD driver miles are less prone to accident than
               | average, or they 're more so. I suppose it could be
               | precisely at 50%, as well._
               | 
               | This has been proven false by Tesla's own data released
               | to the NHTSA. Teslas have more accidents per vehicle than
               | any other cars with advanced cruise control from _every
               | other automaker in the world combined._ And that doesn 't
               | even include the far worse accident statistics for 2023
               | and 2024.
               | 
               | There were three Tesla-related fatalities in the past
               | week in the U.S. alone, including one in which the design
               | of the Cybertruck is thought to have contributed directly
               | to the death of its driver. Teslas get into so many
               | accidents that news media don't even bother to report on
               | Tesla-related accidents anymore unless someone dies.
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | > > _either FSD driver miles are less prone to accident
               | than average, or they 're more so. I suppose it could be
               | precisely at 50%, as well._
               | 
               | > _This has been proven false by Tesla 's own data
               | released to the NHTSA._
               | 
               | What I said is very close to a tautological statement,
               | and cannot be proven false by data.
               | 
               | What data can do is determine which of these three
               | categories that data falls into.
               | 
               | Your anecdotes don't appear to align with the actual data
               | as summarized by someone kind enough to provide some.
               | 
               | > _Teslas get into so many accidents that news media don
               | 't even bother to report on Tesla-related accidents
               | anymore unless someone dies._
               | 
               | Why would they?
        
               | Sysreq2 wrote:
               | You are confusing a claim - specifically that "Teslas are
               | dangerous" or "FSD is dangerous" with a much broader
               | reality; that _all_ Cars are dangerous.
               | 
               | You assert that 3 people died this week due to Tesla
               | related fatalities in the US alone. That adds up to more
               | than 150 per year! But considering that Tesla's comprise
               | 5% of the car market, that 150 is a drop in the bucket
               | compared to the 43000 that die in car accidents in the US
               | every single year.
               | 
               | Tesla's fully autonomous self driving is about as safe as
               | a regular person. Many of it's "accidents" as shown by
               | the various investigations have shown that "drivers" in
               | the plurality of cases had several(>5) seconds to react
               | but failed to do so.
               | 
               | The curious case of Tesla's safety record will one day be
               | a case study in every undergraduate business class. The
               | naysayers want to see the company fail, the CEO fail, or
               | the technology fail. But the problem is not the
               | technology, but rather the people using it. It's been
               | long known that increasing protective equipment in sport
               | decreases minor injury but paradoxically increase the
               | likelihood of severe ones.
               | 
               | Why? Because people are lulled into a false sense of
               | security. Individuals take risks they would not otherwise
               | due to the inhibition of the natural feedback mechanism
               | that would otherwise deter them from continuing to push
               | the bounds. Since they keep getting away with it, they
               | continue to push, only to discover that the failure mode
               | has gone from mild to extreme.
               | 
               | Those small injuries are the warnings that keep you safe
               | and prevent you from taking greater and greater risks.
               | 
               | Technology is like that. Cars are safer now than ever.
               | Seat belts, crumple zones, air bags - and yet looking at
               | the statistics you would never know it. This has led to
               | urban legend like cars in the 1940s being "safer" due to
               | their all steel construction. But this is not true.
               | 
               | What is true is that people drove slower in the 1940s.
               | Most highway traversal occurred at a mere 40 miles per
               | hour. A far cry from the 80 everyone does on the way to
               | work today. As safety increases so too does our tolerance
               | for risk.
               | 
               | Ultimately, that is the problem with self driving cars.
               | They work too well. They unintentionally encourage
               | drivers to take greater and greater risks. And they get
               | away with it. Until suddenly. They don't.
        
             | hulitu wrote:
             | > The legacy car makers have flirted with 48V components
             | for decades but haven't been willing to do the hard work to
             | realize all the benefits it brings
             | 
             | Can you name some benefits ? ICs working at 48 V are
             | expensive and hard to find.
        
               | brianwawok wrote:
               | Massively smaller wires and higher powered accessories
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | That's why DC/DC converters exist. Only the things that
               | can take 48v (and associated voltage spikes) get exposed
               | to it.
        
       | quanto wrote:
       | quick math check
       | 
       | > 1.6 miles and 44 pounds
       | 
       | pure copper density at 9000 kg/m3, wire diameter assumed at 1mm,
       | length at 3000 m (1.8 mi, approx) gives 21 kg, approximately 46
       | lb. math checks out.
       | 
       | > the company claims a 20 percent savings in material costs and
       | 15 percent reduction in its carbon footprint between Gen 1 and
       | Gen 2.
       | 
       | surely this is not just due to the reduction of copper. copper is
       | around 10 USD/kg at bulk.
       | 
       | now let's see if we can address the copper length number. can 1.6
       | mi (< 3000 m) of copper be saved from wiring alone?
       | 
       | The car dimensions are 2m x 5m. That means, in the worst case,
       | two ECUs placed at opposite ends will need 5m of wire (half of
       | perimeter). There were 17 ECUs originally. Call it n = 20, and if
       | we wire dense (in the graph sense), we get n^2 = 400. So, in the
       | absolute worst case, the densest possible graph would have had 5m
       | x 400 = 2000 m of wire. The claimed wire saving is significantly
       | (but not by an order of magnitude) larger than this. I would say
       | this passes the smell test (albeit barely), but original wiring
       | must have been truly inefficient.
        
         | spydum wrote:
         | maybe i missed in your estimate, but most circuits need more
         | than one wire?
        
           | hn72774 wrote:
           | In a vehicle, the chassis is the negative wire in the
           | circuit.
        
             | AlotOfReading wrote:
             | The vast majority of automotive buses use differential
             | signaling over multiple conductors for EMI reasons. The
             | only common exception is LIN and maybe SWCAN if we're
             | exceedingly generous with our definition of "common".
        
           | caleblloyd wrote:
           | I didn't completely follow either but I think the n^2 = 400
           | worked out to 20 ECUs each with 20 wires
        
       | thelastgallon wrote:
       | Rivian can switch to 48V for more gains.
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38576612: The move to 48V
       | means much less power is lost (power loss = (IxI)xR ), cables can
       | be much smaller, cables and terminals can be much lighter and
       | much less copper can be used used.
       | 
       | Discussion: Tesla shares 48V architecture with other automakers:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38557203
        
         | jondwillis wrote:
         | Those are rookie numbers. Let's bump it up to 96V while we are
         | at it.
        
           | throwaway48476 wrote:
           | 50V is the generally accepted safe cutoff. There are separate
           | electrical certifications for 'low voltage' <50V.
        
             | addaon wrote:
             | SELV is often capped at 60 V, not 50 V, although this is
             | often treated as "48 V with crappy bounds". An example that
             | takes advantage of this would be PoE, which allows 44 V -
             | 57 V at the PSE; but most PSEs are, in my experience, in
             | the 54 - 57 V range.
        
           | maxerickson wrote:
           | 60 volts DC is treated as a safety threshold. Human bodies
           | start to conduct better about there.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | There are massively diminishing returns. 1kW at 12V is 83A,
           | which needs a rather beefy wire that is expensive to buy,
           | annoying to route, difficult to route, and needs careful
           | termination with large tools. 1kW at 48V is ~20A, which can
           | be done with 12 gauge wire, which is not bad at all to work
           | with.
        
         | hulitu wrote:
         | Your microcontrollers need 5V, 3.3V and 1.8V. Your RAM needs
         | 1.2 V.
         | 
         | There are power losses when translating from 48V to 3.3V, you
         | know. /s
        
           | Vecr wrote:
           | Not really, if the converter's switching it should be fine
           | either way. Generally you would want to tune it for the input
           | voltage but in many cases the input range is large.
        
       | _heimdall wrote:
       | I was expecting to see a mention of whether there were any safety
       | concerns related to running fewer ECUs. I'd assume not since they
       | chose to go this route, but the idea of the infotainment system
       | going down and taking other systems offline with it seems like a
       | risk they would have had to consider.
        
       | therealdkz wrote:
       | There is nothing like perf improvement that removes sleep() put
       | in earlier...
        
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