[HN Gopher] How long does music stardom last? A statistical anal...
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       How long does music stardom last? A statistical analysis
        
       Author : cainxinth
       Score  : 170 points
       Date   : 2024-08-08 13:55 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.statsignificant.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.statsignificant.com)
        
       | wizardforhire wrote:
       | This is worth the read if you happen upon it.
        
         | dpee123 wrote:
         | Oh wow, thanks a bunch! I wrote this :)
         | 
         | Cool to see this show up here.
        
           | entropicdrifter wrote:
           | Did you enjoy the new Weird Al parody biopic? Seems to me
           | that if you enjoy Walk Hard you'd enjoy the Weird Al one as
           | well
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | As an aside it's interesting to note that by some metrics
             | Weird Al is the most successful long-term musician alive.
        
       | jtwoodhouse wrote:
       | This realization is what made me get my life together. I
       | recognized that striving for success as an artist requires you to
       | abandon the rest of your life while counting on being an outlier,
       | and no rational person would bet their life on that.
       | 
       | I still make art and I still swing for the fences sometimes, but
       | I decided not to starve and my life is all the better for it.
        
       | ghaff wrote:
       | Much of the article really focuses on (more or less) "one hit
       | wonders."
       | 
       | However the intro on music biopics really hits home. It's not
       | even just music. I find a lot of biopics suffer from fairly
       | predictable story arcs that are constrained by the subject's
       | actual trajectory while often not being that true to life.
        
         | dpee123 wrote:
         | Yeah, Back to Black (the movie) was really disappointing. Wish
         | they could have done better by Amy Winehouse.
        
       | doytch wrote:
       | > Using this "cross-verified database," we find that music stars
       | have one of the shortest lifespans of any profession, with an
       | expectancy comparable to boxers, military figures, and race car
       | drivers.
       | 
       | Although according to the chart directly below, the life
       | expectancy is more comparable to chess players and poets.
       | Probably isn't as fun a sentence to write though.
        
         | dpee123 wrote:
         | You're not wrong lol
        
         | pvaldes wrote:
         | Disagree. A profession lasts for how much time you receive
         | money for your activity. Music stars receive money for their
         | songs during their entire lives (and part of the lives of their
         | children).
        
           | bryanrasmussen wrote:
           | depends how much you receive. If they receive the same amount
           | of money you might expect someone to get if they are picking
           | up cans they see laying about and recycling them then I don't
           | think it really applies as a profession.
        
             | pvaldes wrote:
             | Waiting for the yearly royalties of your songs is different
             | than picking cans because it don't require any effort. All
             | free money is still money. And in the long term still would
             | be much more that a scientist receives for publishing an
             | article.
             | 
             | Stardom duration is also relative as you are always losing
             | fans and earning new fans. Is more like an echo machine. A
             | good videoclip is paid once but the people will want to
             | watch it for decades.
        
               | bryanrasmussen wrote:
               | >Waiting for the yearly royalties of your songs is
               | different than picking cans because it don't require any
               | effort.
               | 
               | is this one of those xkcd mentos moments here? You are
               | not familiar with any situations where artists have been
               | screwed out of royalties, underpaid, lied to etc. and
               | have to spend time with lawyers to get their loyalties.
               | 
               | Given the well known financial reporting patterns of the
               | various media industries any artist who does not put any
               | effort into getting their royalties is an artist who
               | essentially does not get their royalties.
               | 
               | >Stardom duration is also relative as you are always
               | losing fans and earning new fans.
               | 
               | I mean you are saying these things but they seem to go
               | against the data in this study as well as the data
               | provided by people who also make references to their
               | experience in the relevant industries - do you have any
               | data and or experience to back this up or are these just
               | your opinions of how it must work based on reasoning
               | about the problem using nothing but logic to derive a
               | conclusion?
               | 
               | Because I too would expect it works the way you say, but
               | I would default to expertise of others who say no you are
               | misinformed about how the situation is in our industry -
               | discounting outliers like Taylor Swift.
        
       | jmyeet wrote:
       | Just one note on Elton John's Cold Heart: its reappearance on the
       | chart was due to a remix that featured the (very current) Dua
       | Lipa [1].
       | 
       | I liken this kind of prolonged success as similary to winning the
       | lottery twice. It happens. But it's a lot more common to only win
       | once.
       | 
       | With music you never really know what's going to resonate with
       | audience. It can be a complete accident. It could be a song being
       | featured in a movie or TV show that completely blows up. It could
       | be used in a Tiktok that goes viral.
       | 
       | There are many enduring artists from the 1960s through 1980s. I'm
       | talking the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, Elvis Presley, Michael
       | Jackson, Queen, Elton John, Billy Joel, Fleetwood Mac, Prince and
       | so on. In their times they dominated the airwaves in a way that
       | doesn't really exist anymore.
       | 
       | It's a bit like how TV used to be a shared cultural experience
       | because it was broadcast at the same time before streaming. Non
       | 21st century TV show has hit (or will probably ever hit) the kind
       | of numbers you saw from Seinfeld, MASH, Cheers and the like..
       | 
       | Taylor Swift is obviously massive. But she's the outlier among
       | outliers, almost the exception that proves the rule. And even
       | though Taylor Swift has incredibly popular music, she doesn't
       | produce enduring "hits" in the way the aforementioned artists
       | did. Will current music have the same cultural power in 50 years
       | that Bohemian Rhapsody or Billie Jean?
       | 
       | My thesis is that we don't have the same shared cultural
       | experiences anymore because of the Internet and I suspect this
       | will make the likely duration of a music artist even shorter.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qod03PVTLqk
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | >It's a bit like how TV used to be a shared cultural experience
         | because it was broadcast at the same time before streaming. Non
         | 21st century TV show has hit (or will probably ever hit) the
         | kind of numbers you saw from Seinfeld, MASH, Cheers and the
         | like..
         | 
         | I couldn't even name current scripted network/basic cable shows
         | unless it's something that has been around forever and I assume
         | is still on.
        
           | dredmorbius wrote:
           | I can't name the _networks_ any more.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | I know the major networks--and a number of the basic cable
             | channels--but I couldn't tell you the network news anchors
             | or Sunday morning talk show hosts any longer which I'd
             | probably have considered something of a cultural failing at
             | one point.
        
         | chrisco255 wrote:
         | It's a good theory, but I dunno, I think these things are
         | mostly decided by the younger generation. I don't know if Tyler
         | the Creator, Post Malone, or Dua Lipa or whoever will still be
         | relevant in 50 years. Queen and MJ obviously some of the most
         | talented music artists of all time so quite tough to say who in
         | this decade or whatever will live up to that kind of high
         | reputation.
         | 
         | One thing that's worth noting is we don't really have any new
         | genres to master. It's usually the best songs and artists of a
         | newer genre or subgenre that we elevate to all time greats.
        
           | whatevertrevor wrote:
           | I agree. I've not heard many Taylor Swift songs but hearing
           | about "Eras" is almost inescapable.
        
         | nprateem wrote:
         | Elton John is well known for doing duets and networking with
         | upcoming stars. It's one way he stays relevant, and he said in
         | an interview it's a way for him to give back. He often
         | showcases new stars when he's on tour.
        
         | wiredfool wrote:
         | I think Queen had pretty much faded by the 80's, there were a
         | couple of songs that you'd hear (we will rock you), but they
         | weren't high profile at all compared to others you'd hear on a
         | classic rock station.
         | 
         | Until Wayne's World. That catapulted them back into a new
         | generation outside of just a couple of songs.
         | 
         | Then they got another kick with Adam Lambert, and they've been
         | higher profile since. (Though personally, I think Night at the
         | Hip Hopera probably did something for them too)
        
       | brentm wrote:
       | Having worked closely with a number of artist that achieved
       | notable level of mainstream success (multiple Billboard Top 40
       | hits, years of touring) I have to agree with the authors
       | conclusion. Even for those that have successful careers spanning
       | a number of years it's more or less over as soon as it starts.
       | They then spend years chasing what they had but it's near
       | impossible. By the end most end up financially not well off and
       | with little to no career options. It's amazing while it's
       | happening but the candle burns quickly, that being said I doubt
       | many artists would agree.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | Maybe this is why Kanye West does so many stunts and make
         | controversial remarks, to stay relevant when the odd are so
         | stacked
        
           | throwup238 wrote:
           | I think his antics could be better explained by manic
           | episodes. He'd have stayed far more relevant if he had just
           | stuck to his music.
        
             | paulpauper wrote:
             | I somewhat disagree. Many artists who were hot in the early
             | 2000s still put out music, but hardly any media attention
             | anymore and much lower sales by the 4th or so album. The
             | public only has a finite attention span. Rap has gone
             | through so many changes over the past 20 years since his
             | career began yet afik he is still able to put out new
             | material and get a lot of media attention and sales for
             | such an old act.
        
               | wisemang wrote:
               | I'm not actually a huge fan of his (I think he's a weak
               | rapper but admit he has a golden ear for production, not
               | to mention his highly objectionable public outbursts).
               | But to call him an old act seems a bit ignorant, the
               | material he's continued to put out is a big part of some
               | of the "many changes" seen in hip hop over the years.
        
               | Loughla wrote:
               | I was going to say that he's literally old by American
               | celebrity and performer standards though.
               | 
               | But then I googled it and apparently the average age of
               | top billing star musicians still performing live is 53.
               | So I guess he's not really that old.
        
               | throwup238 wrote:
               | I'ma let you finish but... Kanye has long been a master
               | of publicity stunts and his music has always been popular
               | (and dare I say it - even as a non-fan - consistently
               | _good_ ).
               | 
               | He was doing fine until he (self-admittedly) stopped
               | taking his bipolar medication in 2017, jumped into
               | politics, and supported a group that has almost entirely
               | alienated his fanbase because there's pretty much zero
               | overlap in the demographics. He says he stopped taking
               | them for the sake of his music so maybe he was in a catch
               | 22 situation, but he's gone completely off the rails.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | I dont think it is just politics. His albums later album,
               | in particular after 2017 sound much different.
        
               | spondylosaurus wrote:
               | He also bought and gutted that Ando house.
               | https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/06/17/kanye-west-
               | tad...
        
               | dvngnt_ wrote:
               | kanye would be relevant just off music production making
               | beats and fashion.
               | 
               | his outburst are hurting him more than helping him
               | especially now that his quality has declined
        
               | Swizec wrote:
               | > The public only has a finite attention span. Rap has
               | gone through so many changes over the past 20 years
               | 
               | Eminem is the 5th most listened to artist on Spotify
               | _right now_. His first album came out in 1996 - 28 years
               | ago.
               | 
               | So we know it's possible :)
               | 
               | https://eminem.news/monthly-5.html
        
             | pfannkuchen wrote:
             | I think his antics could be better explained by finding
             | 4chan late in life and spending too much time there.
        
         | mtalantikite wrote:
         | My friends that have been able to translate it to longer term
         | stability are the ones that got into producing and engineering
         | on top of playing. They'll work with younger artists while also
         | doing their own music and getting called to do session work.
         | The ones that really only focused on playing in their one band
         | and didn't, say, get good at producing/engineering or start a
         | label haven't had the best career options after a certain
         | point.
        
           | gscott wrote:
           | Same with actors becoming directors.
        
       | tylerrobinson wrote:
       | I really enjoyed this. I think about this a lot, especially with
       | young famous artists or social media creators.
       | 
       | How long can they sustain the act that got them famous? Will we
       | want to see Olivia Rodrigo at age 30, 40, 50, performing her hits
       | from today?
        
         | BJones12 wrote:
         | > Will we want to see Olivia Rodrigo at age 30, 40, 50,
         | performing her hits from today?
         | 
         | Yes, but in the form of a Vegas residency or multi-act
         | nostalgia tour.
        
         | nemothekid wrote:
         | I think ti mantain longevity for decades requires being a
         | generational artist. It's not also about performing well, but
         | having an certain kind of taste that can hook newer generations
         | (while also competeting with those generations rising stars).
         | 
         | I can't really think of any artists who really enjoy multi-
         | generational, mainstream, success. Maybe Beyonce?
        
           | bananaboy wrote:
           | Stevie Wonder, maybe Herbie Hancock
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | Bee Gees
        
           | biftek wrote:
           | I'd argue Taylor Swift has done it too, and to a less
           | mainstream degree Trent Reznor who has kept his career
           | rolling along forever.
           | 
           | A core audience who will buy what ever you sell is key, and
           | also not being afraid to change your style from album to
           | album
        
             | bitwize wrote:
             | You forgot the intergenerational ur-artist: "Weird Al"
             | Yankovic.
        
             | nemothekid wrote:
             | I think Taylor Swift is on track, but I'm not sure she's
             | old enough yet. She's arguably in her early 30s, while
             | Beyonce is 42. I'm sure Taylor Swift will still have
             | multiple hit records in her 40s, but currently I think it's
             | rare.
             | 
             | You might be right from with Trent Reznor - Pretty Hate
             | Machine dropped when he was was 24 and With Teeth went Gold
             | when he was 40. This is roughly the same as Beyonce current
             | longevity (Cowboy Carter, Beyonces latest album, which she
             | released at age 42, has also only gone Gold)
        
           | sddsdd wrote:
           | Dolly Parton is a massive outlier this way in terms of
           | mainstream longevity.
           | 
           | Also would name Fleetwood Mac.
        
           | Yodel0914 wrote:
           | I suppose it depends what you mean by "success". Metallica,
           | G'n'R, AC/DC etc can still sell out arenas, even if their
           | latest album sales aren't great (comparative to earlier
           | success).
        
             | nemothekid wrote:
             | This assumption might be wrong, but it's my understanding
             | that Metallica, GnR, and other hard rock/metal bands, while
             | successful, are aging with their audience, which is mean by
             | being generational. Beyonce has penetrated both 19 year
             | olds and 45 year olds demographics with great success. I'm
             | not sure I can say the same about Metallica.
        
         | WalterBright wrote:
         | I'd love to see Led Zeppelin perform again.
        
       | the__alchemist wrote:
       | Green Day + Rancid are still filling stadiums to capacity. And
       | that is such an outlier.
        
         | slater- wrote:
         | Yeah but Operation Ivy is done.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | this is why the arts are underrated when people try to show
         | charts of how 'STEM people' earn more. Yes, they earn more
         | initially, but the humanities and the arts have the benefits of
         | residuals, branding, and legacy. A top -40 hit can generate $
         | forever. Same for a book.
        
           | chrisco255 wrote:
           | A SaaS product with low churn can generate revenue for
           | decades.
           | 
           | The songs and books that actually last for decades with a
           | high amount of revenue (enough to live off of) is a tiny
           | fraction of 1 percent.
        
             | paulpauper wrote:
             | but the product has to be updated , no . The song or book
             | does not have to be changed at all.
        
               | NeoTar wrote:
               | It's maybe less so in the digital era, but certainly
               | before 2000-or-so so you needed to republish books and
               | songs.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Most books don't even earn out their advances.
           | 
           | While STEM covers a lot of ground, it's a _lot_ more reliable
           | career path than the arts in general.
        
       | the_cat_kittles wrote:
       | on the flip side, improvised instrumental music (which has
       | relatively no market or fame) is kind of the opposite- the top
       | dogs basically stay there their whole life. but thats in terms of
       | status, not money, which is mosty nonexistent.
        
         | autoexec wrote:
         | If all you have is "status", but no one knows who you are and
         | most people don't care either (no market or fame) that's a very
         | small consolation.
        
           | the_cat_kittles wrote:
           | i think the respect of your peers is one of the best rewards
        
         | thefaux wrote:
         | Yes, I am reading James Kaplan's 3 Shades of Blue which tells
         | the biographical story of the main players on Miles Davis's
         | Kind of Blue. It is almost shocking, even though I knew, how
         | impoverished these musicians were even though they were widely
         | acknowledged to be at the top of the art form. Miles did ok
         | financially but most of his peers did not. And yet people still
         | listen to Kind of Blue 70 years later (and hardly anyone
         | listens to modern jazz).
        
         | __mharrison__ wrote:
         | Top jam bands do quite well, but most are not played on the
         | radio. Phish, Dave Matthews, Dead and Company. Up-and-comers
         | Billy Strings and Goose appear to be following the pattern. But
         | like many things content-wise, the outliers get the majority of
         | the money. These are the outliers.
        
       | looknee wrote:
       | I think this is very interesting about Billboard Top 100 artists,
       | however there are TONS of artists and bands that have never
       | cracked the Billboard Top 100 yet have been making music and
       | doing live shows for years/decades successfully. I would
       | guess/assume that these artists vastly outweigh the # of artists
       | who have had a Top 100 song or album.
       | 
       | While I'm sure most artists would love to have a Top 100 album or
       | song and the associated wealth it brings, I feel many would also
       | love continuing to create music and tour on it while making a
       | decent living for years. Leaving out these artists in the
       | discussion I feel skews the point of the article.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | All you need is a small and loyal fanbase to make a living with
         | touring and merch , plus you keep a greater % of revenue
         | instead of the manager taking it
        
           | joe_the_user wrote:
           | I've heard the claim you have a whole new crop of musicians
           | making reasonable money with tours and Patreon. I'm skeptical
           | - any references for how many.
           | 
           | It's a bit different but I watch a lot of D&D advice youtube
           | channels. The single most popular of them (the entertaining
           | Ginnie D) can make a bare living at it but nearly everyone
           | else has a day job. It's hard to believe the situation for
           | musicians would have a different distribution of results
           | (money made from fame just naturally follows a Pareto
           | distribution).
        
             | shmel wrote:
             | I don't know if it is really comparable. I listen to a lot
             | of music, if any of my top 50 favorite musicians tour in my
             | city, I don't hesitate to pay 50 quid for a ticket. For
             | some I am willing to fly out. If Spotify didn't exist, I'd
             | have bought many albums.
             | 
             | But I can hardly think of a YT channel I like enough to pay
             | money. I guess I bought a couple of online courses made by
             | relatively popular YT creators, but that's about it.
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | I think most musicians "have been making music and doing live
         | shows for years/decades successfully" don't actually make
         | sufficient money to live but rather do it as a hobby (my only
         | reference is living in a tourist town and knowing a few local
         | musicians).
         | 
         | I believe the only working professional musicians out there are
         | basically working for the film, video game or music (as session
         | musicians) industries making music to order (plus some
         | professional teachers).
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | Billboard Top 40 is a poor measure of "stardom lasting." "Money
       | earned" would be a better one.
       | 
       | If they can get a steady residence in Vegas or Branson, or play
       | the state fair circuit, they're still getting decent money.
       | 
       | Other stars managed to move into producing or guesting on other
       | people's records.
       | 
       | Norman Greenbaum lived off "Spirit in the Sky" for many, many
       | years.
       | 
       | > "Rock 'n' roll is a young man's game"
       | 
       | That's why Taylor Swift credits herself as co-writer of songs
       | that other people write for her. That way she gets some the
       | publishing royalties, which last a _long_ time.  "Change a word,
       | get a third."
        
         | m463 wrote:
         | I wonder if "money earned" correlates super well. The amount of
         | money available and the way music was pushed might have favored
         | a few groups represented by big record labels.
         | 
         | Nowadays with streaming and algorithms I wonder where the money
         | goes and if it makes it to artists in the same uneven way.
         | 
         | https://www.visualcapitalist.com/music-industry-revenues-by-...
        
         | khazhoux wrote:
         | Your metric is worse. Playing Vegas, Branson, or the summer
         | winery circuit makes you a working musician, but no longer a
         | "star".
        
           | AlbertCory wrote:
           | You're right, they're not "stars."
           | 
           | They're still better off than the group struggling to gig at
           | the local bar.
        
       | 082349872349872 wrote:
       | Odd, for a site named "statsignificant", that they didn't try to
       | fit a distribution or two?
        
         | dxbydt wrote:
         | > they didn't try to fit a distribution or two?
         | 
         | Since mu is 28, and 13 is the min, you have 28-13=15 = 3*5,
         | which makes sigma 5, so use rnorm(n,28,25) to generate n
         | samples from the gaussian.
         | https://www.desmos.com/calculator/mlwm7mke16
        
       | merciBien wrote:
       | Insightful article, music celebrity is fascinating. I have a
       | musically-gifted friend in her twenties who got a full-time job
       | singing and playing in a band in a live-music nightclub, she's
       | the only musician I've met who plays music for a living, without
       | a non-music side gig. Her own band has never toured and has a
       | tiny instagram presence, she seems happy with that.
        
         | kasey_junk wrote:
         | I have a friend who has been a working musician with no side
         | gig for over 20 years. He makes money in a wide variety of
         | small band types (pipe & drums for funerals and parades, Jimmy
         | Buffet cover bands for festivals, jazz groups for events, etc).
         | 
         | What I take from his experience is that the things that make
         | him successful are the same as many other jobs. He's
         | dependable, competent, on time and has a large professional
         | network.
        
           | merciBien wrote:
           | that's good to hear! I always wonder when I see a band
           | playing a live gig how they're doing. My friend's bandmates
           | are very creative, but struggle with the professionalism
           | part.
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | It's kind of cruelly ironic that a jobber artist needs to be
           | very strong on "business qualities", while the stereotype is
           | that artists are bad at those things.
        
         | dxbydt wrote:
         | I know of atleast three software engineers who quit programming
         | to pursue music fulltime.
         | 
         | This lady[1] got a Computer Science degree from UC Berkeley, as
         | even an intern at one of the faangs I believe. Quit the whole
         | thing and caught a flight to India. She's sung about 100 songs
         | now and is quite famous.
         | 
         | This guy[2] got a Computer Science degree and worked as a
         | Visual Basic programmer. Also wrote some FoxPro and Clipper
         | code. Was working at Leading Edge in those days. Quit software
         | and started singing. Has sung over 7000 songs. Very rich, 9
         | figures.
         | 
         | This guy[3] got a PhD in Computer Science and wrote an
         | algorithm to reduce non-standard matrices to approx Hermite
         | Normal. Wrote a bunch of NLP papers, even published in a pure
         | math journal! Then quit software and started writing songs. Has
         | written over 1000 songs now. Very busy songwriter.
         | 
         | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manisha_Eerabathini
         | [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shankar_Mahadevan
         | [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhan_Karky
        
           | an_aparallel wrote:
           | i grew up around a lot of Indians - I was always jealous of
           | how engrained being good at a musical instrument is within
           | the culture. And the lineage of master to student presented
           | with great importance before every Carnatic performance i've
           | watched.
        
       | khazhoux wrote:
       | This applies to any ultra-bright success and not just music, no?
       | 
       | I was briefly a "star" in silicon valley for a project I did.
       | Random people at conferences knew who I was and would smile when
       | they met me. But the years roll by and despite a nice career, I
       | understand that work is now forgotten and my (real) name will
       | never be in the press again.
        
         | NBJack wrote:
         | It sounds like you still had a day job independent of it. It's
         | probably a great highlight on your resume that is celebrated
         | when brought up and opens doors.
         | 
         | For most artists, this kind of fame sustains the day job. Loss
         | of fame means loss of royalties, tours income, etc. We even
         | have a somewhat derisive name for it: the one-hit wonder.
        
           | khazhoux wrote:
           | I marvel at the one-hit wonders who pivot into behind-the-
           | scenes mega success.
           | 
           | Linda Perry is a top example. Had a minor early-90s hit with
           | 4 Non Blondes What's Going On (title is actually "What's
           | Up?"). Then exited the spotlight and became a songwriter and
           | producer with major hits like Christina Aguilera's
           | "Beautiful."
           | 
           | Or Ashton Kutcher, who parlayed earnings from his Kelso role
           | (plus a few forgotten movies) into an gigantic pile of money
           | courtesy of angel investing in Twitter and more.
        
           | bitwize wrote:
           | Sharona Alperin, a real estate agent in California, uses her
           | fame as the subject of The Knack's song "My Sharona" to
           | promote her real estate business.
           | 
           | https://mysharona.com
        
       | ilamont wrote:
       | Kind of curious about Tommy Tutone's programming career. It would
       | be cool if he had an HN account!
       | 
       | What's interesting to me is the nostalgia boom for artists who
       | either kept going or reunited, and the crowds now are far larger
       | than what they were back in the day. The Pixies filling a 5000
       | person venue? Morrissey with a Vegas residency? I don't think
       | either charted on the Billboard Top 40.
       | 
       | I knew a musician who was a star overseas, and during the 90s
       | could regularly sell out large venues. He packed it in after
       | about 10 years. To him it really was a grind, there were
       | diminishing returns as his core audience grew up and moved on,
       | and he was operating in a relatively small market. He ended up
       | doing real estate and business development in a second country
       | where the economy was booming, and had a moderately successful
       | career doing that. He doesn't seem to be interested in performing
       | anymore.
        
         | nolamark wrote:
         | Not Tommy Tutone's, so less a direct connection to the article,
         | but I love the tech career of James Williamson of the Stooges.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Williamson_(musician)
         | 
         | "In 1997, he was hired as Sony's vice president of technical
         | standards; in this capacity, he liaised with competitors and
         | helped to codify nascent industry standards, most notably the
         | Blu-ray Disc"
         | 
         | I remember shopping at record store in Claremont, CA in early
         | 80s and finding all these rare Iggy and the Stooges albums.
         | Clerk says Williamson comes in the store every now and then and
         | brings in more, and that I should check back from time to time.
         | I shrug and think nothing of it. Turns out he was going to
         | nearby Cal Poly Pomona and graduated in 1982 with an EE degree.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMHStOPPte0
        
           | vermilingua wrote:
           | And of course Rivers Cuomo of Weezer has a github
           | 
           | https://github.com/riverscuomo
        
         | soperj wrote:
         | I've had an HN account for years!
         | 
         | (kidding, but fully expected there to be a reply saying exactly
         | this, and disappointed there wasn't).
        
       | larkinnaire wrote:
       | This feels like a question that would really benefit from talking
       | to some musicians, instead of basing your framing on biopics and
       | data. Some musicians are in it to be rich and famous, and become
       | computer programmers when riches and fame leave the picture, but
       | most of them are musicians because they like writing and playing
       | music more than anything else. I'd bet that Of Monsters and Men
       | is perfectly happy to make an okay living off of their remaining
       | fanbase, because they still get to tour and make new albums. They
       | might be even happier about it if they could get a second hit,
       | but there are so many musicians who have never had a breakthrough
       | hit, who make a happy living opening for other bands, meager
       | royalties, Patreons, etc. Basically, this post assumes a causal
       | link between chart success and life satisfaction that probably
       | doesn't exist.
        
       | vizzah wrote:
       | "If you're reading this and thinking to yourself, "What's Of
       | Monsters And Men?" then you've proven my point."
       | 
       | Not proven, sorry. Actually prefer their other tracks, like
       | 'Empire', from the 2nd album.
        
         | whatevertrevor wrote:
         | Or Organs, or Mountain Sound, or Dirty Paws. That point didn't
         | land with me either, especially since I discovered Of Monsters
         | and Men in 2018.
        
       | niccl wrote:
       | There's the 'long tail' aspect to ephemeral stardom and what
       | people get from it. Most musicians I know (and I know a lot from
       | the local music scene) want foremost to perform. Money and fame
       | would be really great, but getting up in front of an audience is
       | what they most want to do.
       | 
       | A lot of 80's and 90's bands come through the 200-500 cap venues
       | where I mostly work. People like Midge Ure, Nik Kershaw. They're
       | still happily performing and touring despite (as far as I know)
       | not being in Billboard top 100 for some time (tm)
       | 
       | So the fact of having been super-famous once and then not again
       | is probably disappointing but not crushing, and no reason for
       | other people not to try for the 15 minutes of fame
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | > I couldn't help but wonder why anyone would aspire to become a
       | mainstream music star
       | 
       | Perhaps the author should check out the song with the lyrics
       | "money for nothing and chics for free." Quite a number of
       | musicians are open about being in a band makes for easy sex.
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | This isn't exactly music but an adjacent career: acting.
       | 
       | About 20 years ago, I was in the chorus for a community theater
       | production of _La Boheme_. The director was a moderately
       | successful Hollywood actor, Ken Tigar, whom you 've probably
       | seen:
       | 
       | https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0863024/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1
       | 
       | AFAIK he's never the star, but he continues to get acting gigs,
       | because as someone said about a musician: he shows up, he hits
       | his mark, he doesn't cause any problems for the director. He's a
       | professional, in other words.
       | 
       | So I have a lot of respect for the musician who might or might
       | not have had a hit record, but they know their craft and they
       | take it seriously.
        
         | nox101 wrote:
         | I don't know if this is relevant but your post reminded me of
         | Keith David. I don't know if he's ever been the star but he's
         | been in something like 378 movies
         | 
         | https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0202966/?ref_=tt_cl_t_2
        
           | HideousKojima wrote:
           | I'd say he at least co-starred in They Live, which also has
           | the single best street fight in cinematic history:
           | 
           | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dN8Z7y_QcwE
        
           | underlipton wrote:
           | Rarely the intended star, but steals the show regularly,
           | especially with his voice-over work. He's well-known as
           | Goliath's voice in Gargoyles, was pretty much everyone's
           | favorite part of The Princess and the Frog, and recently took
           | a ton of people by (pleasant) surprise with his
           | interpretation of Pluto (Astroboy)'s Dr. Tenma.
        
           | WorkerBee28474 wrote:
           | Now there's a man who knows how to have a stable acting
           | career!
        
           | AlbertCory wrote:
           | Sure, it's relevant.
           | 
           | When we were doing _La Boheme_ the chorus had the  "Ken Tigar
           | film festival!" I rented (this was when there were still
           | video stores) a whole bunch of movies that he'd been in, and
           | just watched his parts.
           | 
           | They really should have an Oscar similar to the "Lifetime
           | Achievement" award, for people like Ken and Keith.
        
       | nonameiguess wrote:
       | I think you're missing an enormous part of being a musical act if
       | you're only looking at Billboard chart placement. My wife and I
       | have made a hobby of going to concerts and festivals for the past
       | few years. Just in the last three years, we've seen KMFDM and NIN
       | multiple times, Tool, Madonna, Judas Priest, Kreator,
       | Queensryche, Slowdive, Echo and the Bunnymen, Metallica, Dead
       | Kennedys, Social Distortion, Bad Religion, Rob Zombie, Alice
       | Cooper, Filter, New Order, Ministry like five times. We've got
       | Slayer, Weezer, and Flaming Lips coming up in the next couple
       | months. I have pretty badly _wanted_ to see Massive Attack, Juno
       | Reactor, and Spiritualized, but their tours never hit the US.
       | 
       | Some of these were multi-generational megastars. Some of them
       | charted once or twice 30+ years ago. Some of them never charted
       | at all. All of them have devoted fanbases and they sell out
       | venues. Some of these are 80,000 seat arenas, some are small
       | clubs with standing room only, but they're all enough to sustain
       | the band for decades.
       | 
       | You don't need to be on the Billboard top 100 to make a living. A
       | whole lot of fans continue to be fans and will love you their
       | entire lives regardless of whether a single one of your songs
       | hits the mainstream ever again or even if you don't release new
       | material at all. KMFDM thankfully does release new stuff damn
       | near all the time (now 40 years of conceptual continuity), but my
       | wife and I met at one of their shows. We've gone to see them
       | every single time they come within 100 miles of us ever since and
       | we always will. They're a far more important part of our
       | identities than Icona Pop is to the casual radio listeners that
       | sung along to their one popular song for a summer and then forgot
       | about them.
        
       | punk-coder wrote:
       | I have a friend that is the drummer in a band that had a couple
       | big hits in the 90's, not going to drop names, but their
       | contemporaries are bands like Collective Soul, Gin Blossoms, that
       | kind of stuff. They have a few gold records. To this day they
       | still tour every year and make enough money off touring and
       | royalties to make a good living. I grew up on punk and thrash
       | metal, so had never heard of his band, so it surprised me how
       | close to 30 years later they still get booked at Disney and on
       | rock cruises, but happy he still gets to keep doing that.
        
         | golergka wrote:
         | Once you get into a heart of a teen, you remain there for the
         | rest of his life. Many bands well past their peak have a
         | revival of private bookings now, as people who were teens back
         | then become rich people who can book a band for a party.
        
           | verisimi wrote:
           | > Once you get into a heart of a teen, you remain there for
           | the rest of his _[or *her*]_ life.
        
             | pvaldes wrote:
             | Both. There are a lot of fascinating women in music also.
             | 
             | But is a valid point
        
             | Gettingolderev wrote:
             | He wrote it from his perspective.
             | 
             | come on...
        
               | verisimi wrote:
               | He says "a teen". It's just incorrect grammar. He could
               | have said 'his or her heart' or 'their heart', but not
               | every teen is a 'he'.
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | Still entirely possible it's from his perspective.
        
               | marcuskane2 wrote:
               | Interestingly, when I was in school, we were taught that
               | "he" could be used both for male or for gender-neutral
               | usages.
               | 
               | The shift to treating he/him/his as exclusively male
               | seems to be a fairly recent phenomenon (last few decades)
               | as American social progressives sought to change language
               | to be explicitly-inclusive instead of implicitly-
               | inclusive and to avoid confusion due to the context-
               | dependent dual meaning of such words.
               | 
               | 1970s - "he" means everyone 1990s - "he/she" means
               | everyone 2020s - "they" means everyone
        
               | kanbara wrote:
               | this is also occurring in a tonne of european languages:
               | german, french, spanish, italian, etc. it's progressives
               | and people who care for others, not just americans.
               | 
               | as is well studies, we know very concretely how language
               | and word usage influences thought (because it is thought,
               | expressed)
        
             | HideousKojima wrote:
             | "His" is entirely grammatically correct, even if he was
             | speaking about teens in a general sense, both male and
             | female.
        
               | kanbara wrote:
               | it may be grammatically correct, but it is still
               | exclusionary.
               | 
               | i don't know why people fight so hard to just simply not
               | include others
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | This is also how the classic car market works.
        
           | cbsks wrote:
           | Case in point: https://www.whenwewereyoungfestival.com/
        
         | bena wrote:
         | Are they Better Than some of these other bands? Any connection
         | to Ezra Miller?
         | 
         | Why do I think they're Better Than Ezra? Or possibly Candlebox?
         | That feels about right. Probably more Better Than Ezra because
         | Candlebox feels a little out of the Mouse's wheelhouse.
         | 
         | They were/are solid.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | Yeah, one of the things I didn't like about this analysis is
         | that it really didn't do a very good job of differentiating
         | between a band that really is a "one hit wonder" and a band
         | that may only be in the top 40 for a short time but still has a
         | dedicated following and is able to make a good, long career of
         | it.
         | 
         | Take his "prototypical example" of Of Monsters and Men. I am
         | glad that he did mention that the band "has enjoyed continued
         | success since their 2012 breakout", but as a big fan of this
         | band, I'd say they have a really dedicated following. I think
         | in their case they were more of the "quirky band shoots has an
         | immensely mainstream popular single, then goes back to being a
         | quirky band, just with a much bigger following".
         | 
         | Rather than just look at placement in the top 40, which is only
         | going to be songs that have wide applicability and are usually
         | heavily promoted, I think it's more applicable to see how long
         | these folks can have a career in music. As another example,
         | think of someone like Andre 3000. Sure, he may never surpass
         | his fame from Outkast's "Hey Ya" in 2003, but he's been working
         | prominently for 30 years.
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | There's an entire industry supporting former short-run chart
           | names touring - and often selling out - small/medium venues
           | and playing smaller festivals, nostalgia cruises, and so on.
           | 
           | There's also an entire industry of cover bands and
           | impersonators.
           | 
           | There's far more to it than the Billboard list.
        
         | glenngillen wrote:
         | So... the Goo Goo Dolls? :P
        
           | vundercind wrote:
           | I'd guess whatever band it is, is at least one full notch
           | less-prominent and -successful than that one.
        
             | Pet_Ant wrote:
             | Something more like Better than Ezra is my guess.
        
               | punk-coder wrote:
               | I may have put them in a rung higher than they are, since
               | I didn't listen to them back when they were big and
               | touring, so I only know them more by who they tour with
               | now, but his band is Sister Hazel.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | I'm glad you said who they were. I think the example of
               | Sister Hazel perfectly fits the example I gave in another
               | comment: it wasn't the case with them that they were a
               | one hit wonder that flamed out quickly, but rather that
               | they were a good band that made a lot of music that a lot
               | of people liked, and one of their songs just happened to
               | be a big radio hit.
               | 
               | AFAIK they really only had one song that "everybody"
               | knows, "All for You", that got a ton of airplay. But they
               | still put out a lot of records, they had a good devoted
               | fan base of high school/college kids in the late 90s, and
               | AFAIK are well respected for their music in the industry.
               | Glad to hear they're still performing.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | It's a variation of the "thousand true fans" -
         | https://kk.org/thetechnium/1000-true-fans/
         | 
         | You do not need to be terribly famous at all to make a
         | comfortable living; locally famous or historically know will
         | get you to that level.
        
         | winternett wrote:
         | As a musician myself, who has also brushed elbows in coming up
         | amongst friends within the industry, one of the most vital
         | skills a musician can learn is that avoiding overexposure is
         | the key to long-term survival, just as much as making great
         | music that endures... I know many artists that were very
         | prominent years ago, but now can barely climb that hill again
         | because of overexposure and huge re-marketing costs, coupled
         | with an ageing fan base.
         | 
         | People who follow trends, and try to sound like others is
         | definitely an indication that their career is short lived, but
         | in this day and age, with the way social media promotion works,
         | too many artists compete to constantly be on trending lists,
         | and that easily burns out audiences on them and their names...
         | It's relatively easy to "look popular" if you dump tons of
         | money into music promotion, and labels love it when an artists
         | dominates online, but that also makes them flood out everyone
         | else, and even more important trending topics than music at
         | times.
         | 
         | There can be a huge backlash for bought popularity, and for
         | promoting yourself as more important than other vital topics
         | people care about in their daily lives, as on social media,
         | there is only one timeline and trending list for everything.
         | 
         | Absence can potentially make the heart grow fonder for
         | listeners towards a music artist when well timed, especially if
         | every time the artist re-emerges they put out consistently
         | great music projects... Modern musicians need to learn how to
         | share the microphone, and social media needs to create a more
         | even playing field for multiple artists to coexist in over
         | time, rather than pushing just 3-7 celebrity artists all of the
         | time... That's the key to longer careers in music in my
         | opinion.
        
       | agentultra wrote:
       | Just do it because you love it.
       | 
       | I know plenty of people who went for it. Had fun. Some went on to
       | become programmers even when it was all over.
       | 
       | Doesn't have to be an all-or-nothing, rise-and-fall type of
       | story. Aiming for hits is a sure fire way to burn out.
       | 
       | Even in programming, maths, making video games, films, books...
       | don't compare yourself to others and don't look at the stats and
       | think, why bother?
       | 
       | As long as you're surviving and not throwing away your life or
       | those lives that depend on you or care about you... just make
       | music. Doesn't have to be top 40. Just make the stuff you like
       | and as much of it as you want.
        
         | bitwize wrote:
         | Again, my mind goes back to that bike shop manager: "Just...
         | fuckin' _ride,_ man. "
        
       | realkiddredd wrote:
       | This is kinda bullshit. He's basing everything in his "analysis"
       | on having a "hit." There are many working musicians who sell
       | seats and make a good living, and many stars who have toured
       | their way to success without ever having a Billboard hit.
        
       | verisimi wrote:
       | I'm surprised to read so many comments that think a 'natural'
       | phenomenon is being described. As with famous actors, it seems to
       | me that certain faces are heavily promoted for some reason, and
       | others are not. Certain people get endless publicity. The
       | attention they get from the public is due to time they are gifted
       | on TV, in newspapers - its not a natural phenomenon.
       | 
       | Eg Elton John and Madonna have got some good songs, but are they
       | _that_ good to merit the limelight they are given for so many
       | years? And if you take anyone really, but give them access to the
       | best producers and musicians etc, surely you will come up with
       | lots of hits that would be associated with that act, even though
       | the talent is in the group?
        
         | bezier-curve wrote:
         | I think they're talented, but they got their rise in a time
         | when social mobility was generally easier. Once entrenched in
         | popular culture, it becomes a matter of maintaining momentum.
         | Digital music production has democratized discoverability,
         | while people's attention spans remain the same.
        
       | rob74 wrote:
       | > _Throughout this analysis, I couldn 't help but wonder why
       | anyone would aspire to become a mainstream music star--to achieve
       | professional success that bears a near-immediate expiration
       | date._
       | 
       | I think this quote demonstrates that the author hasn't really
       | understood what they're writing about. Many musicians (especially
       | those that have only one hit, or even no hits at all) simply make
       | music because it's what they love to do. If enough people are
       | interested in them for them to be able to make a living out of
       | it, that's enough "professional success" for them. That's the
       | reason why many bands stay together (or artists stay active) for
       | decades after they had a top 40 hit. If they were just chasing
       | stardom, they would have probably given up after a few years. For
       | example, this band I went to see a few weeks ago in Cologne:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INiKwU2JPF0 (the concert
       | recording is not mine) - they were pretty big stars in the
       | nineties with two hit albums (and a James Bond title track), then
       | had two less successful ones, had a fallout with their record
       | company, went on hiatus, then reformed in 2012 (with the original
       | lineup!) and since then had three more albums (recorded in their
       | own studio, published by their own record label) which were
       | critically pretty well received, with a fourth one apparently on
       | the way. Most people probably don't even know they're still
       | around (or rather, around again), but as long as their loyal fans
       | keep listening to their music and going to their concerts,
       | they're happy...
        
       | chiefalchemist wrote:
       | Like most everything else, "success" falls under the Pareto
       | Principle (aka 80/20 rule). That is, unicorns are rare and most
       | are (naturally) bunched around the middle of the curve.
       | 
       | People knock one-hit wonders but that's not easy. Any band with
       | longevity was at one time with only one-hit in hand.
       | 
       | Get that "hit" (product). Figure it out from there.
        
       | jollyllama wrote:
       | By the time you play the Super Bowl half time, you're already
       | past the peak.
        
       | underlipton wrote:
       | I came to the realization a bit ago that musical stardom is
       | essentially a finishing school for a personal brand. Most of the
       | extremely successful artists seem to use their career as a
       | springboard to some other venture; your time touring and putting
       | out albums is more about networking and showing that you're
       | dynamic, poised, attractive, etc. Basically, that you're
       | qualified to be the "face" of something else. If you don't seize
       | that once-in-a-lifetime marketing opportunity... Well, it's once-
       | in-a-lifetime. You should essentially have some plan ready to go
       | the moment you realize your name is on everyone's lips. Fashion
       | partnership, acting gig, merchandising deal, something.
        
       | cmpalmer52 wrote:
       | A friend of mine is a wonderful musician who never "made it", but
       | continues to play bars and restaurants and small venues weekly,
       | as he has for 30+ years. He's done some session work as well.
       | 
       | Another friend said he feels bad for him because he never lucked
       | into greater fame, but he's too good to give it up.
       | 
       | As long as he's happy performing, I don't see this as a bad
       | thing. I can go see him perform regularly, he seems happy, he has
       | a dedicated local following.
        
       | PepperdineG wrote:
       | I watched The Beach Boys live at county fair a few years ago,
       | which it was the official band but basically a cover band since
       | most of the originals had moved on or passed on. The main
       | headliner Beach Boy actually talked about why he was still on
       | tour, like he mentioned that he drove a Bentley...he wanted to
       | maintain the style of living that he had become accustomed to.
       | 
       | Certain musicians/bands can be even more successful even if
       | they're not at the top of the charts anymore, like multiple bands
       | make more money now on tour than they did when they charted. I
       | kind of disagree with the premise due to this in that you can be
       | more successful not charting new songs, but touring with past
       | hits to your now more-affluent fan base. The Rolling Stones for
       | instance have a lifetime tour gross of over $2B. I think it's
       | like the ultimate musician longevity plan where if you have one
       | or more iconic songs that are part of culture, you can make a
       | good living touring for as long as you're willing and able to
       | tour, perhaps even making more touring your hits than when you
       | were charting.
        
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