[HN Gopher] Over 90% of US Population Growth Since 2020 Came fro...
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       Over 90% of US Population Growth Since 2020 Came from Hispanics
        
       Author : paulpauper
       Score  : 60 points
       Date   : 2024-08-08 20:11 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | JohnMakin wrote:
       | You do not even need a racial explanation for cities like LA
       | losing population - The average rent cost of rent is less than
       | the average pre-tax salary. This gnarly rent to income ratio is a
       | trend across most major US cities. You simply cannot afford to
       | live in them without a high paying salary. In LA, many of those
       | people are fleeing inland, causing prices to increase there as
       | well. It's a problem I'm not sure the solution for.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | I blame a tech bubble. The salaries in these cities are
         | massively inflated and it's messing up local economies in
         | strange ways.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | Tech is not present in every city in the US.
           | 
           | Really the big issue is lack of housing production, which was
           | significantly lower in the 2010s and we still have not made
           | up for all that lost time:
           | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
        
           | blackhawkC17 wrote:
           | I wonder why tech employees (labour) earning high salaries
           | should represent a problem. That's a very good thing.
        
             | Arnt wrote:
             | The somewhat informed argument is that a few per cent of
             | well-paying renters drive up the marginal price, and
             | landlords try to stay close to the marginal rate.
        
             | llamaimperative wrote:
             | You'd intuitively think this is true, but empirically it
             | has _not_ been true anywhere ever.
             | 
             | Rising productivity yields rising inequality. The issue is
             | that land rents rise to swallow all productivity gains (we
             | end up calling this "cost of living," as if it emerges out
             | of the ether).
             | 
             | That's why in ultra-high productivity locales like Palo
             | Alto, $200k/yr is a welfare wage. The land is ludicrously
             | expensive because those prices rise in lockstep with
             | productivity -- which they don't have to. Land costs
             | nothing to exist. It is there ready to be used no matter
             | what the price is.
             | 
             | But everything _on_ the land, which is _everything_ , must
             | then pay rent to the landowners, giving rise to "cost of
             | living."
        
         | nullc wrote:
         | How does that cause a population decrease?
         | 
         | "It's too expensive, no one lives there anymore"?
        
           | JohnMakin wrote:
           | People leaving the city for less expensive areas
        
             | moneil971 wrote:
             | This is about the U.S. as a whole tho. I don't think people
             | are leaving the U.S. entirely
        
               | JohnMakin wrote:
               | There is a table that shows the cities with biggest
               | population loss, which is what I am referencing.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | That explains migration within a country which doesn't
               | change population counts. Unless you're claiming that
               | white people are moving out of America because it's too
               | expensive and simultaneously Hispanics are moving into a
               | higher COL area (even if not high COL cities, America as
               | a whole is going to be higher COL than Latin America).
               | 
               | Based on the news I've been following, a more likely
               | explanation is that Biden's immigration policy has been
               | more welcoming on the southern border at the same time as
               | Latin America destabilizing quite a bit politically and
               | generating a lot of refugee migration.
               | 
               | I just don't see how high COL or lack of housing being
               | built explains the population growth being dominated by
               | Hispanics.
        
               | JohnMakin wrote:
               | that is sort of my entire point, pointing to California's
               | massive population loss is completely irrelevant data for
               | the topic of this article. I don't have the data in front
               | of me, but I would be willing to bet a large percentage
               | of that is not due to birth rates and is due to
               | emigration.
        
           | everybodyknows wrote:
           | Kids need bedrooms of their own. Young couples take this into
           | account when managing contraception.
        
             | j0hnyl wrote:
             | Not really. That's a luxury.
        
               | ericd wrote:
               | Why is this being downvoted? Do you all not know people
               | whose kids are in the same room? Ours are. Someone we
               | know has 4 kids in a 2 BR apartment, those kids are
               | great.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | The number of people per household has been declining for
           | fifty years, so if you don't build homes then you lose people
           | instead.
        
             | vlovich123 wrote:
             | Where are those people going and why are Hispanics moving
             | in?
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | I don't think housing costs explain the short-term
               | changes described in this article. I am only answering
               | the question of how housing costs lead to population
               | decreases.
        
         | georgeplusplus wrote:
         | Has limiting the amount of asylum seekers or people coming over
         | the border to claim asylum crossed your mind?
        
           | llamaimperative wrote:
           | Considering that we already don't have enough workers, no.
           | 
           | Has building more housing crossed your mind?
        
             | lp0_on_fire wrote:
             | Come on. We've got plenty of workers in this country.
             | They're just not willing to work for pennies (and why
             | should they?)
             | 
             | Importing masses of unskilled labor puts downward pressure
             | on wages. This is basic supply and demand.
        
               | llamaimperative wrote:
               | > We've got plenty of workers in this country.
               | 
               | Citation needed
               | 
               | > They're just not willing to work for pennies
               | 
               | What jobs pay pennies?
               | 
               | > This is basic supply and demand
               | 
               | In a universe where more people in the country doesn't
               | _also_ increase demand, sure. That 's not the universe we
               | live in though.
        
           | stormbeard wrote:
           | Wouldn't it be easier and less controversial to just build
           | more housing?
        
             | llamaimperative wrote:
             | And more legal under the US Constitution and international
             | law!
        
             | JohnMakin wrote:
             | Landowners get extremely hostile to the type of housing
             | required to alleviate this problem and usually dies on the
             | vine in any city council
        
           | feedforward wrote:
           | That would mean lifting the Venezuela sanctions, Cuban
           | embargo, and so on. I'm for it.
           | 
           | The US has a dry foot policy specifically for Cuba,
           | encouraging people to seek asylum in the US.
           | 
           | The US involvement in Central America - from Honduras in 2009
           | and before that encouraged migration and asylum servers, but
           | that bell is hard to unring.
        
           | xenadu02 wrote:
           | > Has limiting the amount of asylum seekers or people coming
           | over the border to claim asylum crossed your mind
           | 
           | The number of asylum seekers is a tiny proportion of overall
           | immigration of all types so we can basically ignore it.
           | 
           | Population vs housing imbalance in California is not driven
           | by immigrants anyway. The bulk of those people are citizens
           | born to citizens or green card holders. Even if you could
           | stop illegal immigration and simultaneously remove all non-
           | citizens and non-visa holders right now today... that only
           | punts the problem down the road by less than a decade.
        
         | llamaimperative wrote:
         | Land Value Tax
        
         | JohnMakin wrote:
         | > The average rent cost of rent is less than the average pre-
         | tax salary
         | 
         | too late to edit now but other than the butchered sentence I
         | meant the cost of rent is _higher_ than the pre tax salary.
        
       | darth_avocado wrote:
       | https://archive.md/flX95
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | It's not that surprising. Fertility rates are falling hardest in
       | Asian and European populations
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | No, fertility rates are falling hardest in the Hispanic
         | population. It almost halved in the last 30 years.
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/260383/hispanic-fertilit...
         | 
         | Yes, it's still substantially higher than other ethnic groups,
         | but not by as much as it used to be.
        
       | darth_avocado wrote:
       | Linked in the article, but it looks like Black, Asian and other
       | races will stay relatively stable in terms of % of population all
       | the way to 2050. And the main changes will be that the % of
       | Hispanic population will go up (immigration + higher fertile age
       | population) and % of White population will go down (mostly
       | aging). It's not as much as % of "people of color" going up as it
       | is framed.
       | 
       | https://www.brookings.edu/articles/census-shows-americas-pos...
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | Both liberals and conservatives have determined that the two
         | races are "white" and "whatever." More Hispanics means that the
         | "whatever" group is rising.
         | 
         | What I wonder is if they've accounted for the lobbying of
         | various subgroups to _leave_ the  "white" category, such as
         | Hispanics themselves did in the late 60s - early 70s (speaking
         | Spanish is neither a race nor a single culture.)
         | 
         | Every time a former white person declares themselves Latino (or
         | MENA for that matter), the ratio changes.
        
           | katzinsky wrote:
           | Because the US was overwelmingly White (as in non-hispanic,
           | just Irish/British/German which are practically the same two
           | ethnic groups) and as more very different people have
           | immigrated everything we like gets pushed away and trampled
           | on.
           | 
           | In the same paragraphs people here will say "no shut up
           | racist, immigration is good" and "Not everyone likes pub
           | food, Christianity, and 'classical liberalism.'"
           | 
           | We actually liked things the way we were and worse since our
           | own homeland has been overrun by the same people and we have
           | no freedom of association in either place we can't just
           | leave.
           | 
           | So yeah, the categories are "us" and "people who aren't us
           | and don't like us."
        
             | segasaturn wrote:
             | > just Irish/British/German which are practically the same
             | two ethnic groups
             | 
             | Despite wanting to go "back to the way things were", you
             | are viewing that past through a distorted modern lens.
             | Prior to the 20th century someone who was English would see
             | themselves as being from a completely different
             | civilization as a German. Eastern immigrants such as from
             | Poland or Ukraine were treated as non-white invaders. Even
             | the way you just lump the English and Irish together is a
             | very big no-no to this day.
        
               | searealist wrote:
               | Maybe this will help you understand better. The following
               | groups are cultural and genetic clusters.
               | Europeans contain (         Northwest Europeans contain (
               | Germans,           Irish,           English,
               | ...,         ),         Eastern Europeans contain (
               | Russian,           Polish,           Ukrainian,
               | ...,         ),         Southern Europeans contain (
               | Italians,           Spanish,           ...,         )
               | )
               | 
               | Now, imagine you are walking a graph. English to German
               | is a short trip, English to Ukrainian is farther, and
               | English to Latino is even farther (as it's not European).
        
               | YawningAngel wrote:
               | These are constructed categories that a given person
               | might agree or disagree with. You are free to identify
               | cultural similarities between an Andalusian and a
               | Neapolitan, but that does not make the change the fact
               | that those two people may view themselves as coming from
               | entirely disparate cultural and linguistic backgrounds.
               | 
               | For example, your decision to categorise "Latino" as non-
               | European is very arbitrary. There are lots of Latinos who
               | speak European languages and participate in European
               | cultural traditions.
        
               | searealist wrote:
               | Do you think the average Andalusian and Neopolitan would
               | disagree that all Southern Europeans share more culture
               | and genetics than themselves and a German or Russian?
        
             | hnpolicestate wrote:
             | What aggravates me in particular is everything being made
             | spicy as default. I like mild pub food too lol.
        
             | anthk wrote:
             | >practically the same
             | 
             | Wait until you find mid-Northern Spaniards from the
             | Cantabric mountain ranges where pretty much Celtic/Germanic
             | descendants similar to Irishmen and Mid-North Frenchmen.
             | 
             | When you hit Asturias, Leon, Cantabria, Burgos...
             | everything you pretended to know about Spaniards/Hispanics
             | goes out of the window.
        
             | WheatMillington wrote:
             | Tell me more about how America is a "homeland" to white
             | people.
        
               | katzinsky wrote:
               | No. Britain was our homeland but the same thing has been
               | done there, so as I said we can't just leave.
        
               | hnpolicestate wrote:
               | The United States was 80%+ White from 1776-1980.
               | 
               | It was a White "homeland" mathematically speaking until a
               | political/economic decision was made to make it
               | otherwise. Why is that controversial to point out?
               | Motives abound?
        
             | RajT88 wrote:
             | I've tried to understand what the heck you're talking about
             | here in relation to the US, but it doesn't scan.
             | 
             | Perhaps you could explain more in detail. I mean, Hispanics
             | aren't pushing out Christianity and pub food... And they
             | like Americans plenty.
             | 
             | Side note: If your economy would otherwise be shrinking
             | because of a shrinking population/labor pool, immigration
             | _is_ good.
        
               | katzinsky wrote:
               | 1) They're not _us_ and it 's not wrong to not want to be
               | replaced in your own country otherwise there's nothing
               | wrong with colonization and wars of aggression.
               | 
               | 2) The economy and birth rates are shrinking because of a
               | break down in social cohesion not a lack of labor.
               | Depending on which statistic you look at 30-40% of young
               | men in the US are unemployed. There's no shortage of
               | labor, there's a shortage of communication. Not only does
               | immigration not help this it _exacerbates_ it.
               | 
               | 3) Yes Hispanics absolutely have their own culture, their
               | own religion, and their own politics. All of which we
               | might be ok with sometimes but when we're not allowed to
               | have our own thing that _really_ sucks and it 's
               | reasonable to be upset about it.
        
           | slibhb wrote:
           | I'm "white" but neither side of my family was considered
           | white when they came to the US.
           | 
           | Hispanics will become "white," as will Asians (East Asians
           | and Desis). The story of America will continue to be blacks
           | getting left behind, and we'll continue to argue about what
           | to do about it.
        
             | dyauspitr wrote:
             | East Asians and Indians won't become "white". They'll just
             | continue to grow more prosperous. By white do you mean
             | "doing well"?
        
               | orwin wrote:
               | By that he means that Irish were considered by racists
               | from 100 years ago a subrace of white, as were eastern
               | European until the late 90s (that sentiment still exist
               | in some places), and Italian were considered 'colored'
               | until the 70s.
               | 
               | Racism do not have any internal consistency, that's why I
               | heavily judge the intelligence of those subscribing to
               | it. Indians were 'black' until weren't in my country.
        
             | mise_en_place wrote:
             | I think you're on to something here. There is definitely a
             | much looser standard for whiteness in the United States.
             | The one drop rule was used only w.r.t. former slaves. But
             | the definition of whiteness in the United States seems to
             | be much broader these days.
             | 
             | Contrast that with Europe, where whiteness is a very strict
             | category. This could partially explain the unrest that's
             | going on in the UK. I saw a group of X users arguing with a
             | British citizen with an Italian surname. They claimed that
             | he was not really English (really what they were implying
             | was, he wasn't white), even though his passport said so. I
             | found it strange, because in the States we often consider
             | Italian Americans to be white.
        
           | pram wrote:
           | JFYI hispanic is actually listed as an "ethnicity" so you
           | still have to pick white or whatever.
        
         | Izkata wrote:
         | > And the main changes will be that the % of Hispanic
         | population will go up (immigration + higher fertile age
         | population) and % of White population will go down (mostly
         | aging).
         | 
         | This is misleading, because it's not tracked like this on the
         | US census. Hispanic is a separate question from race - people
         | are "White Hispanic" or "Black Hispanic" or "(something)
         | Hispanic", not just "Hispanic".
        
         | red012 wrote:
         | My understanding is domestic births are practically irrelevant
         | compared to border crossings, the growth isn't people being
         | born here.
        
       | blackeyeblitzar wrote:
       | I hit the paywall. Is this due to illegal immigration (including
       | the spikes in asylum applicants / refugees) or cultural
       | differences leading to higher birth rates or something else (like
       | location)?
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | New immigrant/less wealthy women lose less money by deciding to
         | have children than wealthier women (historically white due to
         | distance from equator effects).
         | 
         | The wealthier you are, the more financial sense it makes to
         | have zero children. Until the government decides that
         | subsidizing families is worth doing until the population
         | pyramid is stabilized, every wealthy subgroup will experience
         | decline (except the practicing religious subgroups of those).
        
       | 29athrowaway wrote:
       | Go to Tinder and you will find out why very quickly why that
       | happens.
       | 
       | Most women regardless of age are "still figuring it out". Not
       | interested in kids, commitment of any kind, only traveling.
       | 
       | And now everyone is obsessed with pets, which is their
       | replacement for a family.
        
         | okdood64 wrote:
         | The problem here is that you're on Tinder to determine this.
         | That doesn't prove that most women aren't interested in kids in
         | America.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-
           | exp...
           | 
           | https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/03/millennia.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/among-
           | you...
           | 
           | https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/women-children-
           | study-1.711984...
           | 
           | https://www.visionmonday.com/business/research-and-
           | stats/art...
           | 
           | https://theharrispoll.com/briefs/birth-rates/
           | 
           | TLDR Freedom > kids. Educated, empowered women delay having
           | kids and have less kids overall.
        
             | 29athrowaway wrote:
             | Freedom to learn the language and customs of those who have
             | more kids, who will then have more political representation
             | and ultimately rule over you.
             | 
             | But well, no need to care about your kids' future if you
             | have no kids.
        
               | llamaimperative wrote:
               | I'm really surprised that you're having a bad time on
               | Tinder and women don't seem to want to settle down with
               | you. It's probably because they're awful people or
               | whatever.
        
               | nick_ wrote:
               | Are you implying that educated white women should be
               | having more kids so that they'll stop or slow the end of
               | a white majority America?
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | I suggest therapy if the future scares you, change is
               | inevitable. All races converge to US fertility rate
               | eventually, immigrants after a single generation. We're
               | all racing to 0. Try to not stress about things you can't
               | control.
               | 
               | Framing this as some sort of breeding competition
               | is...unproductive.
               | 
               | https://ifstudies.org/blog/baby-bust-fertility-is-
               | declining-...
        
         | BaculumMeumEst wrote:
         | If you want kids, there are places to find people who are very
         | interested. It's not Tinder.
        
           | 29athrowaway wrote:
           | One that is not owned by Match group?
        
       | Mountain_Skies wrote:
       | If 91% of population growth comes from one group, how is that
       | "increasing diversity" like the article claims?
        
         | javawizard wrote:
         | Because the group in question isn't the majority group, and
         | still isn't after this increase.
         | 
         | It's definitely eliding a lot of the nuance of the article, but
         | technically it's not wrong.
        
       | naveen99 wrote:
       | English proficiency is probably improving even faster, especially
       | with help of ai translation.
        
       | swfadyi wrote:
       | The Hispanics are a hard working, honest and family oriented
       | people, so this is not a bad outcome
        
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