[HN Gopher] Artificial intelligence gives weather forecasters a ...
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       Artificial intelligence gives weather forecasters a new edge
        
       Author : petethomas
       Score  : 49 points
       Date   : 2024-07-29 23:49 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/n6h9r
        
       | lainga wrote:
       | Sigh... don't make me bind a hotkey to paste my spiel about how
       | these non-primitive-equation-based models are bad at long tails
       | and freak weather...
       | 
       | Ed.: too late! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40577332
        
         | kardos wrote:
         | The limitations of the non-physics-based models is under rapid
         | exploration and the bounds of their utility will be a lot more
         | clear in a year or two. For now, they seem to outperform
         | physics-based models in larger scales. The future may be a
         | hybrid: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.06100v2
        
           | uoaei wrote:
           | Hybrid models are almost certainly the future, i.e.,
           | developing structural equations and filling in data or
           | modeling gaps with relatively small NNs for approximation.
        
           | lainga wrote:
           | Interesting, thanks!
           | 
           | Well, as I said, I would expect them to outperform at large
           | scales, specifically because they're learning and memoising
           | large, stable patterns (ed. in the sense of teleconnections)
           | at low wavenumbers.
           | 
           | I hope they have a switch to turn it off if we ever mess up
           | and go back to a single-cell Hadley configuration :)
        
         | praccu wrote:
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07744-y
         | https://research.google/blog/fast-accurate-climate-modeling-...
        
       | gorgoiler wrote:
       | Nothing suits a generative AI better, in terms of quotidian
       | prognostication, than telling you whether it will be vaguely
       | sunny-ish in the next 24 to 48 hours.
       | 
       | Whatever next? Perhaps that most egregious example of just about
       | vaguely getting it right enough of the time to seem plausible: AI
       | horoscopes?
        
       | thesis wrote:
       | Ah yes. The old 0% chance of rain today when it's currently
       | raining.
        
       | mystified5016 wrote:
       | Honestly I'd be surprised if we weren't already using ML in
       | weather models. Seems obvious enough that it should have popped
       | up years ago, before "AI".
        
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       (page generated 2024-08-01 23:00 UTC)