[HN Gopher] Rent Control Reduces New Development: Bug or Feature?
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       Rent Control Reduces New Development: Bug or Feature?
        
       Author : paulpauper
       Score  : 9 points
       Date   : 2024-07-28 19:15 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (marginalrevolution.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (marginalrevolution.com)
        
       | pjkundert wrote:
       | The Canadian province of British Columbia just recently enacted
       | "rent control" on a massive scale, by making most AirBnB rentals
       | illegal (thereby ostensibly "forcing" the owners of these units
       | to rent these units to local long term renters).
       | 
       | Of course, this immediately has these first-order effects:
       | 
       | - Putting thousands of home owners into financial dire straights,
       | by reducing their income at the same time that their refinanced
       | mortgages are increasing by as much as 100%.
       | 
       | - Eliminating thousands more rental units of coming onto the
       | market, by eliminating the AirBnB income stream necessary to
       | rationalize building or renovating those units into existence.
       | 
       | These first-order effects are so obvious, that it cannot be an
       | accident -- the assumption would assume such a low intelligence
       | on the part of the politicians enacting this legislation as to be
       | deeply insulting.
       | 
       | But the alternative explanation; that this was an intentional
       | result, also brings into question:
       | 
       | Why would a politician want to simultaneously destroy both
       | tourism (making short-term rental accommodations both less
       | plentiful and more expensive), while also destroying thousands of
       | rental units from being constructed, making long-term rentals
       | both less plentiful and more expensive?
       | 
       | The obvious alternative -- goosing the production of _all_ types
       | of short- and long-term rental units by _encouraging_ the
       | production of AirBnB units (increasing their supply, thereby
       | decreasing their cost and profitability, encouraging the
       | migration of existing AirBnB stock to long-term rentals) --
       | appears to have bypassed the BC political elite.
       | 
       | How (and why) would they not want that?
        
         | franga2000 wrote:
         | > Putting thousands of home owners into financial dire
         | 
         | Not homeowners, short-term rental investors. Many probably are
         | homeowners, but that's not relevant - many more homeowners saw
         | absolutely no change, since they didn't invest into this
         | particular industry.
         | 
         | > Eliminating thousands more rental units of coming onto the
         | market
         | 
         | Thousands more short-term rental units, not real rental units.
         | People who renovate/build for AirBnB will keep their units on
         | AirBnB, not suddenly decide to put them up for real/long-term
         | rental. The units that theoreticallt won't be built now
         | wouldn't have helped the housing crisis even a little bit.
         | 
         | Without regulatory intervention, tourism is so much more
         | profitable, that anyone who wants to invest in realestate and
         | optimise for profit would be foolish to deal in long-term
         | rentals. By making the AirBnB business model less profitable,
         | some investors might actually go "back" to investing in long-
         | term rentals, increasing supply.
        
           | pjkundert wrote:
           | Is your hypothesis that supplying more rental units (even if
           | they were mostly short-term) would _not_ reduce the both the
           | price and profitability of that stock?
           | 
           | And, that an increased supply and reduced profitability would
           | _not_ drive some of that short-term rental stock into the
           | long-term rental market?
           | 
           | It appears to be the consensus opinion of HN that reducing
           | supply increases availability and/or affordability.
           | 
           | Howso??
        
       | BenFranklin100 wrote:
       | It's a feature in two ways.
       | 
       | The first way, as the author point out, it directly
       | disincentivizes developers from building new homes. The second
       | way is more insidious: it gives politicians, typically
       | progressive politicians, the needed cover to claim they are
       | addressing high rents, while they continue to support the real
       | driver of housing costs: restrictive zoning that bans new
       | construction and leads to supply shortages.
       | 
       | Inclusionary zoning operates in a similar manner.
        
         | pydry wrote:
         | The fastest level of homebuilding in NYC was in the 1950s.
         | Strictest rent control? Also 1950s.
         | 
         | Rent control also reduces property prices which reduces
         | NIMBYism. People are less inclined to fight new development
         | when they arent up to their eyeballs in debt and 60% of their
         | net worth isnt on the line.
         | 
         | It's not property supply that suffers most from rent control.
         | It's the ever increasing streams of unearned income going
         | towards largely the same people fighting new development.
        
           | brigadier132 wrote:
           | https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/07/re.
           | ..
           | 
           | The evidence is in the article. So please don't come in here
           | with your cherry picked data to try to claim something that
           | is already widely known to be false.
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | The "evidence" is a link to one paper stuck behind a
             | paywall which is probably trash. Im not in the mood to
             | thrown down money to read trash.
             | 
             | He also references the theory that raising the minimum wage
             | increases unemployment, which is very popular among
             | neoliberal economists but has been comprehensively debunked
             | (c.f. dube, lester, reich for the economically _literate_
             | ).
             | 
             | In both cases it's an economist from a neoliberal camp
             | doing PR against a profit hostile policy. Thats just what
             | they do.
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | > The fastest level of homebuilding in NYC was in the 1950s.
           | Strictest rent control? Also 1950s
           | 
           | NYC's (as well as those in other American cities like Boston,
           | Detroit, and San Francisco) massive development push in the
           | 1950s was also infamous for using eminent domain to do this
           | mass construction at the expense of African American
           | neighborhoods - and displaced African American residents were
           | not resettled in these projects [0][1][2][3]
           | 
           | It's easy to build fast if you're taking land away from
           | disenfranchised communities who have no ability to push back.
           | 
           | [0] - https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/brent-cebul-
           | tearing-do...
           | 
           | [1] -
           | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-09/robert-
           | mo...
           | 
           | [2] - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MVcjHygDTLw
           | 
           | [3] - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8Abhj17kYU
        
       | pydry wrote:
       | >The minimum wage will tend to increase unemployment among low-
       | skill workers, often minorities.
       | 
       | Orthodox and neoliberal economists spent a good part of about 50
       | years preaching that raising the minimum wage increased
       | unemployment until Dube, Lester and Reich.
       | 
       | After the study was replicated they still preached it.
       | 
       | This happened in the 90s. Preaching this in 2024 basically puts
       | you in the same camp as climate change skeptics.
       | 
       | And now, theyre still preaching it, not because it's true but
       | because it reduces profits.
       | 
       | Exactly like rent control.
       | 
       | Economics is a weird profession. It _pays_ a lot more than all
       | other social sciences. Supply and demand certainly applies there.
       | The reason is that there are a lot of plum think tank jobs paid
       | for by some of the country 's largest corporations.
       | 
       | Some university economics departments similarly also receive
       | large donations with large strings attached.
       | 
       | The question is, what was _really_ being demanded when David Koch
       | piled a dumptruck of money on FSU econ department? And what is
       | being supplied? The truth? Or neoliberal orthodoxy?
        
         | diob wrote:
         | Yep, people also still like to say minimum wage increases will
         | cause inflation despite things inflating just fine without it.
         | 
         | Sigh.
         | 
         | Higher local wages means more money in the local economy versus
         | money getting pulled out to somewhere else.
        
       | snjsisi wrote:
       | Not if the state funds housebuilding, for the common good, rather
       | than relying on private developers who only have profit motive.
       | 
       | Rent controls need to be combined with long-term social housing
       | policy to be effective.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Rent control reduces development, state funded housebuilding
         | increases development. So state funded housebuilding
         | ameliorates the effect of rent control, it doesn't eliminate
         | it.
         | 
         | State funded housebuilding without rent control would maximize
         | new development, and the additional housing would put downward
         | pressure on rents providing much of the benefit of rent control
         | without the drawbacks.
        
           | pydry wrote:
           | The effect is very very muted though, which is why the
           | fastest rate of NYC homebuilding in the 1950s coincided with
           | the strictest rent controls.
           | 
           | Like raising the minimum wage it is a very profit hostile
           | policy though. Thats probably why marginal revolution
           | despises both policies so much.
           | 
           | Tyler Cowen takes koch money and the laws of supply and
           | demand work the same way for the market for faux academic
           | legitimacy in economics as they do for housing: if you have
           | the cash, it can be bought.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | > Not if the state funds housebuilding
         | 
         | Chicago, Detroit, and NYC all tried that and abandoned it due
         | to cost overruns, corruption, high liabilities, and the
         | limiting of eminent domain powers following the civil rights
         | movement - most urban housing projects were built by
         | demolishing historically African American neighborhoods, and
         | the resulting structures were segregated (as James Baldwin
         | eloquently pointed out in 1963 during the height of the civil
         | rights movement)
         | 
         | The same thing happened in Western Europe as well with France
         | and the UK abandoning similar urban housing projects.
         | 
         | Singapore and HK are unique in that the governments are
         | authoritarian and can kick people out with minimal notice or
         | recourse if they really want to.
         | 
         | The biggest blocker is always going to be land acquisition -
         | either we reject the entire notion that you have property
         | rights and the right to recourse, or you accept that these
         | basic civil liberties are a requirement for a democracy and
         | thus building will have to be done by the private sector
         | because unlocking public funds would take 3-5 years on top of
         | 2-3 years of construction.
         | 
         | For a more recent example, look at China's urban renewal
         | projects in the 2000s and 2010s, and how local governments
         | would use forced evictions as well as minimal compensation and
         | occasionally shooting protesters [0][1][2] or the mass
         | evictions in Beijing in 2017-18 [3] - this was how Housing
         | Projects were built across America from the 1930s-1960s.
         | 
         | Opposition to that policy was also a major reason why Xi
         | Jinping was initially quite popular, because he was opposed to
         | these kinds of projects at scale, and Fujian never saw the kind
         | of mass demolitions that you'd see in other Chinese provinces.
         | 
         | [0] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
         | dyn/articles/A6968-2004Oct...
         | 
         | [1] - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4507130.stm
         | 
         | [2] - https://www.reuters.com/article/olympics-evictions-
         | idUSPEK57...
         | 
         | [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/china-
         | beijing-...
        
           | Agentus wrote:
           | " The biggest blocker is always going to be land acquisition
           | - either we reject the entire notion that you have property
           | rights and the right to recourse, or you accept that these
           | basic civil liberties are a requirement and thus building
           | will have to be done by the private sector because unlocking
           | public funds would take 3-5 years on top of 2-3 years of
           | construction."
           | 
           | Reflecting on the conflict of Israel and also in the show
           | "yellowstone" basically originates from land ownership
           | issues, i really think this human constructed abstraction and
           | entitlement is fundamentally flawed. I really think it needs
           | reworking and needs to be held as less sacred in America.
           | Besides do people really own land when the government demands
           | rent in the form of property taxes?
           | 
           | So long as housing is so fundamentally stressful in current
           | systems with resulting pervasive homelessness and rent
           | seeking capitalism applied to shelter thats long paid for its
           | investment yet still inflates in costs applying pressure on
           | low income residents: i dont think mostly inalienable rights
           | to property ownership in many cases is a public good.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | If my family has owned this house for multiple generations,
             | why should I give it up to at best be resettled in a 2
             | bedroom apartment in the boonies?
             | 
             | There is no good answer to that.
             | 
             | Either you accept civil liberties of which property
             | ownership is a critical part or you accept that civil
             | liberties like ownership do not matter.
             | 
             | Owning property is a right every human agrees with (it's
             | literally article 17 of the UN Declaration of Human
             | Rights). This is why you either need to compensate
             | exhorbitantly or threaten to break a few legs and skulls in
             | order to gain property.
             | 
             | The mass urban housing projects of the 30s to 60s were
             | literally built by mass demolishing black neighborhoods -
             | look at Central Boston's redevelopment for example, as well
             | as Cincinnati's.
             | 
             | And that's why these projects ended once the Civil Rights
             | movement succeeded - why should black residents lose their
             | property and intergenerational wealth to urban projects
             | built by governments that didn't care for them.
             | 
             | Look at how the 1968 DC Riots and 1967 Detroit Riots were
             | exacerbated by HUD plans to revitalize "slums" (black
             | majority neighborhoods) like Capitol Hill and Lafayette
             | Park
             | 
             | > Besides do people really own land when the government
             | demands rent in the form of property taxes
             | 
             | In return for those taxes they get piped water, roads,
             | police, local schools, sewers, garbage collection, and
             | other basic services.
             | 
             | > resulting pervasive homelessness and rent seeking
             | capitalism applied to shelter
             | 
             | Mass Eminent domain of land only leads to crony capitalism
             | anyhow. Either way it's the same contractors and builders
             | who are doing development - the difference is now instead
             | of wooing voters you just woo the political class instead.
             | 
             | Nor is there actually a need for mass development to
             | alleviate homelessness - housing subsidies can and do help,
             | as SLC and Houston have both shown as well as Section 8.
             | 
             | That said, you will have to follow the law - meaning no
             | substance abuse or criminal activity.
        
               | Agentus wrote:
               | According to traditional american propaganda yes civil
               | liberties of property ownership is critical. According to
               | a deep reflection on the indirect impact these civil
               | liberties have in different scenarios, suddenly these
               | civil liberties start imposing a staggering cost on
               | others that becomes intolerable to pay. In less abstract
               | wording it's like the one hold out property preventing
               | the building of a dam.
               | 
               | Civil liberties are just a human abstract construct which
               | go at odds with reality and as such cause inevitable
               | downstream problems no matter how the civil liberties or
               | laws are constructed or fabricated. Like you said theres
               | no good answer but as such (while fully cognizant of
               | issues with all sides) im beginning to dislike the
               | current state of the status quo thats really only a
               | modern phenomenon (nation states and most pieces of land
               | being claimed for ownership by individuals or worse:
               | large stakes of land claimed by small groups).
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > According to traditional american propaganda
               | 
               | Literally every society holds ownership of land and
               | property as a fundamental core value.
               | 
               | > im beginning to dislike the current state of the status
               | quo thats really only a modern phenomenon (nation states
               | and most pieces of land being claimed for ownership by
               | individuals or worse: large stakes of land claimed by
               | small groups)
               | 
               | People will not willingly give up their property without
               | adequate compensation (and even then might not due to
               | emotional attachment).
               | 
               | If you want to back your words with threats of physical
               | force, feel free to go ahead. There's a major reason most
               | civil and criminal cases in both China and India revolve
               | around land disputes and conflicting ownership.
               | 
               | This has been the status quo of society for millenias -
               | this is why you have folk stories like Hattefield McCoy,
               | the biblical story of Zelophehad, the dishonest plowman
               | of European folktales, the qissa of Dulla Bhatti's revolt
               | against the Mughals, and the conflict between Der Shin
               | and Der Yi in Chinese folklore.
               | 
               | Private Land Ownership has literally been codified in the
               | Hammurabi Code, the Arthashastra, the Bible, and the Book
               | of Rites from the Zhou Dynasty.
        
               | alisonatwork wrote:
               | This comes across as bamboozlement, based on conflating
               | the actually broadly-accepted right to own property with
               | an imagined right to own land. There is nothing in the
               | UNHDR that says people ought to be able to own land. As
               | you already pointed out, any property that a person might
               | own is at best just a temporary structure on land that in
               | most countries also includes other structures provided by
               | other entities. Land itself is widely understood to be a
               | shared resource. If it wasn't, there wouldn't be any
               | controversy over who gets to use it, and the right to
               | freedom of movement wouldn't exist either.
               | 
               | Of course it violates human rights to force people out of
               | their homes, but that's because it's wrong to interfere
               | with how people choose to live, not because people have
               | some kind of intrinsic and exclusive right to the land
               | they are currently occupying.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > There is nothing in the UNHDR that says people ought to
               | be able to own land
               | 
               | Article 17 [0]:
               | 
               | 1. Everyone has the right to own property alone as well
               | as in association with others.
               | 
               | 2. No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his property
               | 
               | ---------
               | 
               | Land is a form of property in every single definition
               | used in literally every form of jurisprudence.
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-
               | declaration-of-huma....
        
         | BenFranklin100 wrote:
         | In the United States, social housing is the least popular form
         | of housing and faces the fiercest opposition from NIMBYs. It
         | would also require trillions of tax dollars to do at scale. For
         | this and other reasons, it is a political nonstarter.
         | 
         | Yes, developers are profit driven and this a good thing. So are
         | grocery store owners for that matter and that is also a good
         | thing. Since developers (usually) turn a profit, they attract
         | investment dollars, and in turn convert those dollars into new
         | homes. These new homes, especially if built in desirable areas,
         | give wealthier people options to buy, who are now less likely
         | to bid up the price of older homes as they do now.
        
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