[HN Gopher] Construction of the 4th Chinese aircraft carrier has...
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       Construction of the 4th Chinese aircraft carrier has reportedly
       started
        
       Author : belter
       Score  : 17 points
       Date   : 2024-07-07 21:16 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (meta-defense.fr)
 (TXT) w3m dump (meta-defense.fr)
        
       | borisk wrote:
       | Very interesting. Wonder what does building an aircraft carrier
       | fleet say about China's military priorities. Are they more
       | focused on occupying Taiwan, or on keeping the Malacca Straight
       | open for commerce, or on power projection across the Pacific and
       | Indian Oceans.
        
         | simonblack wrote:
         | Probably more about keeping distant sea lanes like the Malacca
         | Strait open in the short term, until the overland routes are
         | more developed. After which, carriers are a waste of resources.
         | 
         | Otherwise I'd say it's just as silly for China to build
         | obsolete carriers as it is for the US to keep building them.
         | 
         | Missiles outrange carriers which in turn outrange battleships.
         | The battleships became obsolete in 1941. The carriers became
         | obsolete in the early 2000s.
        
           | skhunted wrote:
           | Why do you think aircraft carriers are obsolete?
        
           | actionfromafar wrote:
           | Even if we accept the premise, carriers are still formidable
           | force projection against _non_ -peer adversaries. Imagine for
           | instance a chinese carrier vs the Philippines, not vs the US.
        
           | daniel-thompson wrote:
           | carriers can be used to project power in scenarios short of
           | all-out war, which is the common case, at the moment
        
           | jowea wrote:
           | Will overland routes ever be as cheap and used as sea routes?
           | 
           | And I feel the better comparison is does "missile on aircraft
           | on carrier outrange hostile missile?"
        
           | unyttigfjelltol wrote:
           | Carriers outswarm long-range missiles and out-loiter long-
           | range air patrols.
           | 
           | But more to the point if you can't defend a mobile ocean-
           | going fortress, what _can_ you defend?
        
             | lmm wrote:
             | > if you can't defend a mobile ocean-going fortress, what
             | can you defend?
             | 
             | Underground bunkers (I believe Sweden has a decent history
             | of converting caves into aircraft hangers). Just as we
             | don't really have conventional fortresses on land any more,
             | only trenches and bunkers, as munitions get better we're
             | reaching a point where the only way to keep anything safe
             | is to bury it.
        
           | YZF wrote:
           | Missiles out-range carriers but the cost of hitting a target
           | in Yemen with a Tomahawk missile launched from afar (2
           | million dollars, range 2500km) is much higher than the cost
           | of dropping a bomb (~ 16k dollars) from a jet on said target.
           | Even after amortizing all the other costs. The firepower an
           | aircraft carrier brings with it to any location it gets to is
           | really hard to match with missiles. More than the "bandwidth"
           | and cost of that, there's also latency. Drones are another
           | thing to compare to.
        
             | bbor wrote:
             | Yeah I am _far_ from an expert in actual academic military
             | studies (?), but I think there's a lot of theory still
             | riding on "big boat capable of deploying a variety of
             | aircraft", even if they're not used exactly how they were
             | in past wars, cold and hot. Just, like, from a million
             | miles up: planes and drones are a lot more useful than
             | missiles alone, and the economic angle you highlight is
             | just one of the basic differences in tactical affordances.
             | 
             | ..."weaponry studies"? Now I'm curious to what extent there
             | exists an academic commentary on stuff like this, separate
             | from internal researchers/stakeholders...
        
       | lkdfjlkdfjlg wrote:
       | I'm not an expert or anything, but don't modern day drone
       | capabilities mean that aricraft carriers are easy to destroy or
       | incapacitate?
        
         | actionfromafar wrote:
         | I think it's too early to tell. Carriers can carry drones, too.
        
         | dmurray wrote:
         | People keep saying this, but the trend in warfare these days is
         | for limited wars, not superpower against superpower.
         | 
         | A modern carrier group has plenty of air defences and anti-
         | drone capabilities to hold off a small- or medium-sized enemy,
         | and it would still provide a very useful mobile platform to
         | bomb them from.
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | What kind of drones? People keep saying this but they don't
         | specify the kind of drones. The small drones that are being
         | used to drop grenades in Ukraine are useless in naval warfare,
         | they fall into the ocean after few miles.
         | 
         | The Houthis are using medium range Iranian drones to attack
         | ships, but they have mostly been failures since they are easier
         | to shoot down. Also, being controlled from land limits the
         | numbers and makes vulnerable to jamming. They also don't have
         | range to catch carriers out at sea.
         | 
         | The longer range "drones" that Iranians have developed could
         | change things. They are basically slow cruise missiles, not
         | drones. But they could be used in large numbers because they
         | are cheap. There is no indication they have developed anti-ship
         | guidance which would bump up the price. However, they haven't
         | had much effect in Ukraine, Israel, or Red Sea.
         | 
         | Also, we haven't seen what counters to drones look like. The
         | same guidance for autonomous drone could lead to accurate
         | cannons taking them down. Cheap missiles could mean cheap
         | defensive missiles to shoot down all the drones.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | Wouldn't aircraft carriers be able to shoot down slow cruise
           | missiles extremely easily?
        
         | ineedaj0b wrote:
         | No, you can shoot them down or have a destroyer's smaller guns
         | run defense
        
         | Daneel_ wrote:
         | I'm not sure why you're being downvoted for an honest question.
        
       | 486sx33 wrote:
       | Let us not forget how China deceived the world for their first
       | air craft carrier.
       | 
       | "In 1998, the rusting hulk was sold at auction for $20 million to
       | Agencia Turistica E Diversoes Chong Lot Limitada, a company from
       | Macau. Chong Lot proposed to tow Varyag to Macau under pretenses
       | of conversion into a $200 million floating hotel and casino"
       | 
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Lia...
       | 
       | The same way they do with carbon emissions and far worse
       | emissions like continuing to pollute the ozone layer with
       | refrigerants banned by the Montreal Protocol
       | 
       | China is completely EVIL
       | 
       | Global warming = China !
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Construction of the first new Type 004 Chinese aircraft carrier
       | has been rumored to be under way for years now.
       | 
       | Is this supposed to be a new Type 004, or another Type 003 like
       | the _Fujian?_
       | 
       | With the _Fujian_ completed and in sea trials, it would make
       | sense to keep the production line going and crank out a few more.
       | The US suffers from on and off warship production. Some years
       | ago, after winning a carrier order, the head of Newport News
       | Shipbuilding and Drydock announced, in a letter to Congress, that
       | if the Navy would order two at once, Newport News would throw in
       | a third one for free. The Navy declined.
        
       | ineedaj0b wrote:
       | There's credible rumors China is planning to make moves on Taiwan
       | 2028ish.
       | 
       | I feel bad for the Taiwanese, similar to how I felt about Hong
       | Kong. I was hoping we'd offer Hong Kong citizens aslyum (you'd
       | make great US citizens!) but I realize we'd probably also get a
       | few... dissidents caught in our net with that program. I even
       | debated marrying a Hong Kong girl for citizenship but couldn't
       | find any online, also what a weird offer to make, no one took me
       | up on it (couldn't find where Hong Kong people posted to
       | advertise even).
       | 
       | Anyhow, I do support strengthening our military. I was younger
       | and thought our military budget was silly but after more reading
       | and more nuance in my worldview, I realize our military is source
       | of consistency - a necessary evil that's helped to avoid larger
       | wars. Still wish we had better healthcare though.
        
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       (page generated 2024-07-07 23:01 UTC)