[HN Gopher] Against the burden of knowledge
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Against the burden of knowledge
        
       Author : mooreds
       Score  : 111 points
       Date   : 2024-07-06 18:52 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theseedsofscience.pub)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theseedsofscience.pub)
        
       | quonn wrote:
       | Regarding the number of researchers, of all of my friends who got
       | a PhD only a single one did it because he liked research. For
       | most it was a stepping stone for a totally unrelated career in
       | industry and for some just the easiest option due to lack of an
       | alternative.
       | 
       | Given that, is is surprising that progress does not scale
       | proportionally? Maybe, maybe not. For sure my comment is not
       | backed by anything but anecdotes.
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | > Regarding the number of researchers, of all of my friends who
         | got a PhD only a single one did it because he liked research.
         | 
         | This is sad; luckily for me the percentage is higher among my
         | friends. I suspect your experience is closer to the statistical
         | mean (perhaps because there's a good chance your friends are a
         | few decades younger than me and many of my friends).
         | 
         | Also: I bailed out _because_ I didn 't like research, or rather
         | because I very like the _practice_ of research but only ever
         | worked on super obscure things, and I wanted to make a
         | difference I could see. Also I didn 't want to have to deal
         | with the culture of research funding and related bureaucracy.
         | Not that there's anything wrong with those who do like that
         | stuff! It just seemed not worth getting a doctorate; it
         | definitely would have made some things easier but in retrospect
         | I made the right call (for me!).
         | 
         | There is a lot of basic research done that does make a
         | difference but where that difference is unknown to the original
         | researcher -- perhaps separated too far in time. I have found
         | value in decades-old PhD theses in the life sciences, mainly
         | physiology.
        
           | CrazyStat wrote:
           | > There is a lot of basic research done that does make a
           | difference but where that difference is unknown to the
           | original researcher -- perhaps separated too far in time. I
           | have found value in decades-old PhD theses in the life
           | sciences, mainly physiology.
           | 
           | Have you ever tried tracking down the author to express your
           | appreciation? It might make their day (or month!).
        
         | Calavar wrote:
         | That's actually the system working as intended. There's not
         | nearly enough faculty positions or even non-faculty research
         | staff positions to accommodate all the PhDs who graduate. The
         | presumption is that most people who graduate will go into
         | something other than academia. If you want to see the system
         | failing, look to humanities, where most people who get a PhD
         | are legitimately interested in academics and yet they will, in
         | the best case, be stuck as terminal adjuncts
        
       | advael wrote:
       | It's crazy how much institutional decay there is basically
       | everywhere in this era. Like I grew up hearing stories about
       | institutions being crazy effective compared to the ones I
       | actually encountered. Sure, humans have always had folly, but the
       | society we currently occupy is obsessed with often nonsensical
       | metrics, rewards con artists disproportionately for gaming those
       | metrics, and creates significant barriers for anyone trying to
       | navigate the world through other means. There is no faculty in
       | any academic institution untouched by the Reagan-era push to make
       | colleges into degree factories, the administrative bloat caused
       | by incursions of the demands of an increasingly muscular and
       | obtuse finance sector (that also affects most other
       | institutions), or the pervasive instinct to automate decisions
       | based on dubious metrics, and most adults understand this at an
       | intuitive level
       | 
       | We are in a period of widespread outright institutional collapse.
       | Institutional decay should be the null hypothesis when
       | considering the causal factors behind any widespread problem
        
         | devwastaken wrote:
         | This is a natural outcome when governments create rules that in
         | effect solidify a market practice. It becomes irrelevant over
         | time and fails to change because the rules will not allow for
         | it, and even if they did, committees are not known for being
         | industry leaders.
         | 
         | In education the solution is simple and effective - cut all
         | federal student aid. The educational institutions that have
         | strong industry ties and therefore the best outcomes will
         | persist. Those that were warming chairs to hand out fake
         | degrees will go under. Let it fail for the admins, because it's
         | already failing the students.
        
           | glompers wrote:
           | Your posted suggestion, of defining the best outcomes as
           | immediate job success, would solidify a market practice of
           | lowering fences between town and gown (viable during only the
           | past 3 or 4 generations) as the only viable way forward for
           | educational bodies that intend to survive.
           | 
           | Because I agree with your general statement that market
           | situations lose relevance once legislated, I think the
           | principle more naturally extends to mean:
           | 
           | It is better to consider how to keep universities, whether
           | research institutes or liberal arts universities, as a
           | distinctive part of "the whole spectrum of techniques by
           | which one generation transmits its insights and abilities to
           | the next," Prof. Edsger Dijkstra's words. Not enshrine a set
           | of commercial principles by which every piece of a spectrum
           | must play.
           | 
           | Immediate job success is a fickle master; it would be a shame
           | to LinkedInify any society. In 1996, Dijkstra said, [0]
           | 
           | > The University with its intellectual life on campus is
           | undoubtedly a creation of the restless mind, but it is more
           | than its creation: it is also its refuge. The University is
           | unique in that on campus, being brilliant is socially
           | acceptable. Furthermore the fabric of the academic world is
           | so sturdy that it can absorb the most revolutionary ideas.
           | 
           | > But it is not only a refuge for the restless minds, it is
           | also a reservation for them. It does not only protect the
           | restless minds, it also protects the rest of the world, where
           | they would create havoc if they were let loose. To put in
           | another way, the fence around campus is essential because it
           | separates two worlds that otherwise would harm each other.
           | The fence ensures that we have relatively little direct
           | influence on the world "out there", but we would be foolish
           | to complain, for our freedom to be as radical as we like is
           | based on the fact that, for at least the first 25 years,
           | industry and the world-at-large ignore our work anyhow.
           | Currently, there seems to be a world-wide tendency to try to
           | lower the fence; the effort strikes me as ill-directed.
           | 
           | He had also been writing similar things in 1986 [1] and 1994
           | [2].
           | 
           | [0] https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~vl/notes/dijkstra.html
           | 
           | [1] https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/transcriptions/EWD09xx/EWD
           | 988...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/transcriptions/EWD11xx/EWD
           | 117...
        
             | devwastaken wrote:
             | No one can live in a capital market without capital.
             | Education has always been about capital markets -
             | uneducated people are highly limited in their use. There
             | has never been a school that was built for "free", it's
             | always come from capital one way or another.
             | 
             | It used to be primarily private capital, people who
             | believed in it's purpose. Outside of the top 1% Now nothing
             | is built without students and taxes footing the bill.
             | 
             | If it cannot survive on its own merits then its existence
             | is an abuse to the people it claims to support. Turn it
             | into something else and let real solutions arise naturally.
        
               | SgtBastard wrote:
               | > uneducated people are highly limited in their use.
               | 
               | >taxes footing the bill.
               | 
               | It sounds like it is surviving only its own merits,
               | merely shifted in time.
               | 
               | (Admittedly, from the perspective of an Australian whose
               | strongest institutions are all public and the private
               | universities are a bit of a joke)
        
               | advael wrote:
               | No it hasn't? That's some insane revisionist history, and
               | this is what I blame Reagan for. The attitude that
               | universities and even education broadly primarily or
               | solely exist for producing vocational training
               | 
               | The original and, to this day, primary unique purpose
               | universities serve is facilitating research. Capitalists
               | try to claim credit for all the progress in science and
               | innovation that's happened since the industrial
               | revolution, but the institutions that evolved into what
               | we now consider academia predate it significantly, and
               | it's important to note that they were not always viewed
               | even by their benefactors as having immediate value in a
               | direct economic sense. Most of their educational
               | capability is a side effect of developing competency in
               | training new researchers. People who fell off this track
               | still often got a quality education and became better-
               | rounded, and also people who could get to a university
               | tended to be high-status, so for a while it was a decent-
               | fidelity signal for the competence-status mix that hiring
               | decisionmakers cared about. Trying to get everyone in on
               | this not only devalued that signal, but has caused a lot
               | of this institutional rot. I think we agree on the end of
               | that story but not the beginning of it
               | 
               | Vocational training and especially apprenticeship should
               | be encouraged and enabled more, and shoehorning
               | universities into this role was misguided from the start
        
               | devwastaken wrote:
               | _ideas_ of how it should be and the actual circumstances
               | today are completely different. That ideal is abusive
               | because it is not reflected in reality, taking advantage
               | of young naive adults.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | What are you on about, mate? Universities significantly
               | predate even the concept of capital. Not universities as
               | a concept, but specific universities that you can go to
               | today - notably Oxford and Cambridge, but many others in
               | Europe. And their purpose has almost always been
               | scholarship, _not_ employment. Most modern universities
               | stem from institutions meant to find better ways to
               | understand God 's work, and perhaps to better worship it.
               | The Catholic Church was the primary "investor" for a long
               | stretch of time, at a time when it was a more powerful
               | "state" than almost any other in Europe.
        
               | devwastaken wrote:
               | If you can find me a university free of a capital market
               | I am more than willing to be wrong. The _idea_ of
               | universities generations ago are not at all how they are
               | today.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | You have claimed "education has always been about capital
               | markets". I have exained that it hasn't. That we today
               | live in a capitalist society and every single aspect of
               | our lives is touched by capital to a higher or lower
               | extent is a completely different claim.
               | 
               | Furthermore, you suggested that this (obviously false)
               | history of education being driven by capital markets
               | should be taken as a guide to letting capital control our
               | education _even more_ , as if the problem with
               | universities today is that they are not capitalistic
               | enough. The actual history suggests exactly the opposite.
        
           | rexpop wrote:
           | Education has to be broader than industry, or we'll all end
           | up slaves.
        
             | devwastaken wrote:
             | You cannot live in a capital society without capital. There
             | is not nor has there ever been an education system
             | disconnected from industry until government subsidy and
             | "support" did it. This is because once there is free money
             | there is no longer a natural market effect and
             | organizational failure is acceptable and funded.
        
               | advael wrote:
               | It's crazy how people just make shit up and say it so
               | confidently. Most education prior to the industrial
               | revolution was considered a luxury for the wealthy, and
               | its value was not considered in terms of producing
               | economic value directly
        
               | lordnacho wrote:
               | > Most education prior to the industrial revolution was
               | considered a luxury for the wealthy,
               | 
               | In fact this is still the case in many ways. There are
               | loads of kids studying things that are not directly
               | economically useful, mainly for their own enjoyment and
               | as a luxury status symbol.
        
               | rexpop wrote:
               | > loads of kids
               | 
               | I'm not saying you're wrong, but...
               | 
               | This narrative is very heavily purported by right-wing
               | propaganda outlets. I wonder what you mean by "things...
               | as a luxury." Do you mean MBAs, or history majors? And,
               | what do you mean by "loads?" Do you have any data to back
               | this up?
        
               | gary_0 wrote:
               | I think they mean the general study and refinement of
               | culture and knowledge for its own sake--the kids who go
               | to college/university for language arts, fine art, music,
               | theatre, history, philosophy... these classes are widely
               | attended, but have a reputation for not being useful for
               | gainful employment. (Plenty of famous writers, poets,
               | artists, actors, musicians, and journalists have such an
               | education, but the rest of their classmates probably did
               | not end up employed in the same sector.)
               | 
               | Side note: it's not just the far-right that disparages
               | higher academia as effete elitism. The far-left has done
               | so as well, notably during China's Cultural Revolution,
               | and within Soviet Russia, Pol Pot's Cambodia, etc. Being
               | an academic at the wrong time in history means you have a
               | good chance of ending up in a gulag or concentration
               | camp.
        
               | devwastaken wrote:
               | It's a fact, money doesn't come from nowhere and for
               | nothing. You can see it for yourself if you do the work.
               | It doesn't matter how things were eons ago - it matters
               | how it is _now_.
        
         | detourdog wrote:
         | I agree with everything you said but I really doubt Reagan is
         | to blame for the degree factories. That was more of a Clinton
         | push.
         | 
         | We have many social ills delivered by Reagan and some you
         | mentioned.
        
         | Barrin92 wrote:
         | >We are in a period of widespread outright institutional
         | collapse
         | 
         | who is "we"? This thesis is easily tested by zooming away from
         | the US for a second (I know, very hard exercise). The burden of
         | knowledge is visible everywhere even in countries that have
         | drastically improved their governance. Lee Kuan Yew used to
         | lament the increased levels of education at the expense of
         | family formation, experts are getting older everywhere from
         | India to China, to Indonesia and South Korea, making the same
         | gains in computing performance is harder and harder regardless
         | if you're in Taiwan or Arizona. Capital required for economic
         | growth, or drug discovery cost or any other reasonable proxy
         | for the cost of new ideas also increases everywhere.
         | 
         | Institutional collapse is completely coincidental to the basic
         | mechanism that is perfectly well laid out in the article. To
         | build better knowledge you need to account for the old
         | knowledge and then some, so pretty much by definition it's an
         | information theoretical necessity that better ideas get more
         | expensive.
         | 
         | Try to imagine a world where the theory is actually true that
         | there is no burden of knowledge and the reason is institutional
         | collapse. Then you'd have countries where the life expectancy
         | grew faster than when we invented soap and antibiotics. You'd
         | have places that make advances in computing as we did in the
         | 80s and 90s. You'd have places where VC's invest less money
         | every year but get more returns every year. It'd be a
         | completely bizarre world compared to the one we're in.
        
         | gary_0 wrote:
         | Institutional knowledge is even actively destroyed. There is
         | only so much you can maintain with written procedure; rather,
         | for all of human history, institutions have mainly relied on
         | the _people_ and _culture_ that make them up. But the  "modern
         | wisdom" is that you avoid such reliance on people--the
         | _employees_ , the rank-and-file--at all costs. Executives must
         | maintain absolute leverage against workers, so institutional
         | knowledge has to be ignored as a factor. Every employee must be
         | maximally expendable and easily replaced. You know that one
         | senior team who knows how to reliably carry out some important
         | function? Too bad, we're firing them (or denying them raises,
         | or replacing their manager with a toxic sycophant, same diff)
         | and then we'll just have to manage.
         | 
         | Even non-commercial organizations where a healthy culture might
         | still form are affected due to carry-over from the much larger
         | corporate sector. I mean, nobody working _anywhere_ can expect
         | to stay with the same firm until retirement; that 's just not
         | the done thing anymore.
         | 
         | So the decay has spread everywhere.
        
       | frogeyedpeas wrote:
       | Sometimes low barriers result in better results.
       | 
       | If the rent in a city is too high you are not going to get the
       | MOST interesting restaurants, bars, and clubs. You are going to
       | get only the businesses that will DEFINITELY convince an investor
       | to write a check to dump on such high rents; regardless of
       | whether that is a good idea or not.
       | 
       | The PhD cohorts for R1 Universities hasn't really gotten any
       | bigger than 50 years ago. The number of academic jobs hasn't
       | really gotten any bigger either. The only people having success
       | in the system are the types of people that seem low-risk to the
       | system.
       | 
       | So of course we should expect a decline in innovative ideas as
       | time rolls on. The only way to reverse this is to literally
       | create more tenured jobs (or perhaps temporary tenure ex: 10
       | years you're guaranteed employment) and increase the size of PhD
       | student cohorts so that they are large enough that iconoclasts
       | can fit in again.
        
         | advael wrote:
         | You make a really good point. Defining risk in terms of
         | financial ROI and trying to assess it algorithmically and
         | default-gating more and more endeavors behind such risk
         | assessment is a surprisingly coherent model for a lot of
         | widespread modern rot
        
           | vinnyvichy wrote:
           | Thanks for being one of the few commenters questioning the
           | microconomic angle itself. In my view, the problem is that no
           | rational economic agent will ever embrace the idea that
           | research _should_ be expensive. Well some very few of us do,
           | we realize that we are competing against Nature and the
           | Universe ( _not_ other economic entities), so one of the
           | sensible avenues left to us is to try and recuperate all the
           | losses that have _already_ gone into past research. (maybe
           | Kepler was trying desperately to salvage Hellenic
           | heliocentrism? He also had a thing for platonic solids, after
           | all)
        
         | salomonk_mur wrote:
         | There is another way.
         | 
         | Reinvent the way academic careers work. No need to even have
         | the concept of tenure. No need to get a PhD degree to be
         | recognized as someone researching something.
         | 
         | Anyone should be able to publish research without being on such
         | restrictive terms. The article's main takeaway is that the
         | institution of academia has perverse incentives that hold back
         | innovation. I believe the way jobs and degrees are structured
         | are part of that.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | How do you decide which researchers to invest in? Ultimately
           | you need some kind of institution to organize this, and I
           | promise you it will end up very similar to a university.
           | 
           | Also, tenure is generally seen as a very important part of
           | research. Without tenure your livelihood is dependent on your
           | output and your relationships, which creates numerous
           | perverse incentives. You can't research things which might
           | lead nowhere, or you'll lose your job. You can't prove some
           | other senior researcher wrong, or they might work to have you
           | fired.
           | 
           | With tenure, this all goes away: you are free to choose your
           | own path in research, and empowered to know you don't have
           | any superiors who can lose you your livelihood if you step on
           | their toes, or their friends' toes. Of course, this is the
           | ideal. In practice, lots of tenured professors actually want
           | to become ever more wealthy and powerful and are not content
           | with the guarantees of their tenuership.
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | I mean, anybody _can_ do research and publish their papers in
           | whatever journal. There's no rule stating you need a PhD to
           | do that
        
             | beryilma wrote:
             | > I mean, anybody can do research and publish their papers
             | in whatever journal.
             | 
             | Not really true. Publishing research in a reputable journal
             | without an academic affiliation is many times more
             | difficult. Sure you don't need a PhD to publish, but you
             | pretty much need an academic affiliation.
             | 
             | Good or bad, researchers without an affiliation are often
             | taken as crackpots.
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | _But then, Copernicus came along with the heliocentric model
       | which, in its simplest initial form, made worse prediction than
       | the tuned-up Ptolemaic model. But the burden of knowledge was
       | dissolved in an instant. Improving the Copernican model meant
       | shifting orbital paths from perfect circles to ellipses. It had
       | nothing to do with the epicycles and perihelions of the Ptolemaic
       | model and none of that burdensome knowledge was necessary to
       | expand the frontier anew._
       | 
       | disagree here. it does not make it easier. to show why a new
       | model is right or superior means having to understand the old
       | models well enough to show it's wrong or suboptimal. hence
       | knowledge.
        
       | bawolff wrote:
       | I think people have recognized that the current research grant
       | system tends to reward safe, status quo ideas, and discourage
       | potentially revolutionary risky long shot ideas. Its been talked
       | about for a long time now. Maybe even decades at this point.
       | 
       | The hard part is what to do about it.
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | Sabine Hossenfelder had video on this exact subject.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKiBlGDfRU8
        
           | immibis wrote:
           | Note that Sabine Hossenfelder is a rather unreliable source
           | for anything outside her field of expertise.
        
         | salomonk_mur wrote:
         | Hence, more savvy researchers would rather get private funding
         | instead of jumping through grant hoops.
        
         | knowaveragejoe wrote:
         | There isn't an infinite amount of grant money to go around, and
         | of course handing it out to any crackpot that comes along is
         | going to be a nonstarter. It seems to me that the solution is
         | somewhere in between the two extremes.
        
       | Ygg2 wrote:
       | My observation is that both of those could be linked. We might be
       | reaching the limits of technology.
       | 
       | It means that to push boundaries we need more money to
       | buy/construct new tests. In other words, you need exponentially
       | more money. Which leads to the kind of blockbusterization of
       | science. You don't get hundred blockbusters each year, instead
       | you get two, by team with track record. Which sounds a lot like
       | institutional decay.
        
         | dartos wrote:
         | I think you're putting the cart before the horse.
         | 
         | Needing exponentially more money is the decay. The
         | blockbusterization of science is a symptom.
        
           | Ygg2 wrote:
           | Exponentially more money isn't just sign of institutional
           | decay. Resources/energy required to discover X ray is a grain
           | of sand on a beach compared to energies required to discover
           | Higg's boson.
           | 
           | That's just energy. Compare cost to make an X ray tube vs
           | LHC.
           | 
           | Science used to be able to snatch low hanging fruit. Now
           | those are picked, but people still expect same rate of
           | innovation.
        
             | dartos wrote:
             | > but people still expect same rate of innovation
             | 
             | This sounds like the decay, not the rising cost. I'm sure
             | every researcher understands this, but not every executive
             | or shareholder. The lack of trust in your workers / focus
             | on hyper growth is the issue.
             | 
             | Like you say, discoveries become more expensive over time,
             | but we're seeing similar institutional decay in non
             | research institutions as well, so that can't be the only
             | factor.
             | 
             | Like how much more expensive is it to teach a single
             | college student now than it was 20 years ago. In all
             | honesty, probably much cheaper. Especially when you start
             | looking at online classes.
             | 
             | So why is college in the states so much more expensive?
             | It's largely because of administrative bloat, which, among
             | many other weird incentives, are symptoms of decay.
             | 
             | And why would you need administrators? IMO, it's because
             | you're unwilling to trust small departments or individuals
             | to tech effectively.
        
       | mncharity wrote:
       | I've repeatedly encountered research I'd have liked to use, but
       | which was inaccessibly buried by the pipeline from academic
       | research to patents, to optional failed startup, to bigco
       | portfolio entombment. And wished for an industrial policy dialed
       | more towards a progression from research, to open source and
       | community exploration, to cottage commercial, to small-scale
       | industrial. Or consider a slider from non-competes, to California
       | I'm-working-at-a-competitor-tomorrow, to China and-I've-brought-
       | stuff - I'd like to see more California and China than not. Our
       | optimization for pharma and VC, often seems terminally ill fitted
       | for progress along many vectors.
        
       | Archelaos wrote:
       | I think the example from the history of astronomy the author
       | provides can by turned against him. It was the accumulation of
       | astronomical observations and the refinement of ever and ever
       | exacter measurements that provided the basis for the transition
       | in ther scientific community from the heliocentric to the
       | geocentric system, that took between one and two hundred years,
       | depending when on lets it start (Copernicus or a predecessor) and
       | end (Galileo, Kepler or Newton).
       | 
       | If we look for example at the career of Kepler, we see that he
       | had to accumulate expert knowledge of both systems and that he
       | arrived at his later so-called laws not by a sudden insight, but
       | through tireless work, trying again and again over several years
       | to make sense out of series of measurements that did not really
       | make sense in either the Ptolemaic or Copernican system.
       | 
       | It was not the epicycles that worried the late medieval
       | astronomers, but the fact that according to their geocentric
       | theory the earth was not really exactly in the center of the
       | deferent. Correspondingly, however, the sun was not really at the
       | center of the Copernican system either. Both systems lacked
       | elegance, and both systems were more or less equaly in accordance
       | with the observational data. To solve this debate and to make
       | progress, the strategy of the most famous astronomer of his time,
       | Tycho Brahe, was to collect better measurements. And it were
       | these accumulated measurements that enabled his pupil Kepler to
       | develop a solution. In a sort, he was lucky. Only the data for
       | the planet Mars, which he considered first, was exact enough to
       | match an ellipsis. His data for Jupiter or Saturn would not have
       | allowed him to come up with one.
       | 
       | Accumulated knowledge was not an obstacle, but the basis for
       | Keplers insights. That we might get a different impression is a
       | result of simplifications that happen after a scientific
       | community reaches a conclusion. At that stage such a theory
       | becomes textbook knowledge: a student needs no longer acquire the
       | accumulate knowledge of the previous period, but only the
       | successful doctrine. These doctrines appear and are all too often
       | presented as ingenious insights from geniuses, instead of
       | cumulation points of a collective work of generations of
       | scientists and scholars.
        
         | passion__desire wrote:
         | Parallax Nick is a thoroughly researched channel on these
         | topics.
         | 
         | https://youtube.com/@parallaxnick637
        
       | vinnyvichy wrote:
       | Another article of not really independent interest: "Investing in
       | the Unknown and Unknowable"
       | https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/investing-unknown-a...
       | 
       | PS: Since these are articles penned by academic economists rather
       | than pro scientists, it'd be nice to hear criticism from an
       | economic (or finance) angle..
        
       | biophysboy wrote:
       | Knowledge is not always cumulative, but you have to be aware of
       | its prevent contradictions to refute them. This is a point in
       | Kuhn's "Structure of scientific revolutions" that I think is
       | neglected
        
       | tsimionescu wrote:
       | The comparison the author makes with astronomy doesn't support
       | their point at all.
       | 
       | First, it agrees with the notion of a burden of knowledge, by
       | agreeing that improving the Ptolemaic model took huge amounts of
       | time to learn its intricacies.
       | 
       | Secondly, the Copernican alternative worked not because it was
       | simpler, but because the Ptolemaic model was _wrong_. There is
       | never a guarantee that a model we currently is is wrong and can
       | be replaced by a substantially simpler model. Maybe someone
       | brilliant will come along and find a simpler model than quantum
       | electrodynamics, but maybe they won 't: it's absolutely possible
       | that, say, QED is the right model, and we can at best make it
       | _even more_ complex to explain more details of phenomena.
       | 
       | Finally, tools only get you so far. Tools don't necessarily
       | encode some of the scientific knowledge you need to advance
       | fields. They are a separate track from it.
        
       | animal_spirits wrote:
       | We compile knowledge into institutions to reduce the burden of
       | knowledge, distilling vast information into simple phrases.
       | However, the rapid technological and cultural changes over the
       | past 80 years have hindered the formation of new institutions. As
       | technological improvements slow down, we will likely see more
       | established institutions emerge, reducing the burden of knowledge
       | and allowing us to break through the current knowledge ceiling.
        
       | benreesman wrote:
       | No, ideas are not getting hard to find. Ideas are getting harder
       | to discuss.
       | 
       | There has never been such a ripe time to find such ample reason
       | to propose and discuss new and radical ideas. And there has never
       | been such a hostile time to looking into it.
       | 
       | In physics we've lost 50-70 years to string theory and related
       | nonsense and the people still working on effective quantum field
       | theories have had to re-brand as working on "quantum information
       | / quantum computing" to stay in rent and lab desks. There aren't
       | many serious QFT people who doubt Everettian epistemology but
       | it's still nothing undergraduates hear about. Most serious non-
       | string gravity work comes out of Perimeter and Marletto/Deutsch.
       | 
       | In economics and finance we still put our hand into the sink
       | shredder of the Chicago-style strong-form EMH, as resoundingly
       | and empirically disproved by Simons (may he rest). And we
       | continue to embrace Friedman-style supply side economic policy,
       | without peer the nastiest wealth transfer from those with surplus
       | away from those facing scarcity at the barrel of a gun in
       | absolute terms ever. It never trickles down.
       | 
       | In the fundamental epistemology of our day we are surrendering
       | the reigns of influence to people who market chat bots trained to
       | lie convincingly at scale.
       | 
       | Knowledge, and the new ideas that approximate at the limit the
       | derivative of knowledge are under attack. They're under attack by
       | some rich guy's choice for the job he did well and decided to
       | keep in the family.
        
       | gampleman wrote:
       | If we had a rather good way of attracting, selecting and
       | retaining top scientists then by power laws inherent in any
       | creative/competitive endeavour we'd expect that by increasing
       | funding drastically to get more people employed we'd only see
       | very marginal improvements, as the wider base of the talent won't
       | contribute all that much.
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | Yes.
         | 
         | Heretical opinion: we should have much stronger merit-based
         | gating on access to university. You can get in if you can
         | demonstrate facility with real analysis, matrix algebra, and
         | Bayesian reasoning.
         | 
         | Imagine how much the general level of educational noise would
         | be reduced in universities, and how much more space there would
         | be to do meaningful research.
        
       | contingencies wrote:
       | The cost of complexity is inherently wicked. We could discuss its
       | impacts on HR, on R&D, on supply chain, on education, on
       | manufacturing or project management. However, let's stick to the
       | core: the vast majority of investment-related decision making
       | systems are still stuck in a finite-dimensional reality barely
       | evolved from a spartan economic rationalism analytical milieu
       | derivative of double entry book-keeping functionally based upon
       | entrenched inefficiency and a lack of timeliness. Regulators,
       | insurance, and other aspects of society with ill-deserved
       | critical veto capability do not just support or require but
       | effectively celebrate this uncompromising backwardness, whereas
       | it should actually be banished. We desperately need holistic
       | decision-making taking in to account factors lying outside of
       | this purview. Academics, entrepreneurs, frustrated youth,
       | competent industrial craftspeople and environmentalists are
       | unlikely allies at the coal face.
        
       | lumb63 wrote:
       | Put another way, I think one of the author's arguments is "what
       | if we're pouring more and more effort into research in an area,
       | because our primary abstraction is _wrong_?" That would make it
       | harder and harder to continue to roll the ball up an increasingly
       | steep hill. And I think in some fields, they may be right. It's
       | akin to how in math some problems are very difficult in Cartesian
       | coordinates but trivial in polar coordinates. For instance, it
       | seems to me that the existence of the "wave-particle duality" in
       | physics and our inability to explain quantum-scale phenomena in a
       | way that makes intuitive or logical sense to people is the canary
       | in the coal mine that we took a wrong turn a while back. That's
       | not to say it's true in every field, but that's one that has
       | stood out to me for a while.
       | 
       | I think another cause could be bureaucratic. From what I
       | understand, several hundred years ago, research was funded by
       | rich patrons who wanted some credit in relation to discoveries.
       | Nowadays there is a giant, lurking, centrally planned grant
       | machine that distributes money to researchers. And as we know
       | from economics, central planning becomes increasingly untenable
       | as the system becomes larger. Results get worse as the complexity
       | skyrockets.
       | 
       | Additionally, if we are going to blame the "burden of knowledge"
       | in any capacity, we have to acknowledge the abysmal education
       | system (in the US). An anecdote which I will never forget is, in
       | 6th grade we had a student who had recently immigrated from
       | India. By his own telling, he was an average student there. But
       | compared to native students, he was light years ahead in math. We
       | learned multiplication in third grade, division in fourth grade,
       | long division and fractions in fifth grade, or something like
       | that. He had learned multiplication in first grade, and all of
       | division in second grade. While our smartest students in sixth
       | grade were grappling with pre algebra, he was bored in classes
       | with the eighth grade algebra students. Our education system has,
       | since experiencing that, seemed to me deeply flawed; there really
       | is no reason an efficient and effective public education system
       | should take 12+ years to be able to have a child ready for
       | college and then another 4+ in college to have them ready to
       | contribute to an isolated field.
        
         | aeim wrote:
         | > "what if we're pouring more and more effort into research in
         | an area, because our primary abstraction is wrong?
         | 
         | Absolutely; perhaps "thinking of knowledge in terms of physical
         | environments" also helps to illustrate why - sometimes the only
         | way to get to where we want to be, is to redefine where-and-how
         | we begin
         | 
         | Concretely, looking up a unconquered mountain: it may seem as
         | though many approaches are viable, but when attempt proves
         | otherwise, the only option might be to return to base, and
         | consider a new origin for approach
         | 
         | I think this also helps illustrate why "progress by accrual
         | alone" is so inherently flawed. Sometimes you must begin again,
         | in whole, but also in part - because "you can't get to anywhere
         | from anywhere"
         | 
         | In fact, for almost all domains other than science, beginning
         | again is such an optimal remedy to progress dead-ends, it's
         | operational
         | 
         | Writers know what's up - kill your darlings. Software engineers
         | too, famously - measuring software progress by lines of code
         | added is counter productive - we learn to be unsentimental,
         | delete and reconsolidate often. This is the continual
         | redefinition of the "origin" of where we continue-on-from
         | 
         | Though it does require a change in perspective: written words,
         | and lines of code - not as asset, but liability. Redundant
         | words, code or literature, is contrived complexity.
         | Unnecessary, and after a while, prohibitive to progress. I
         | think science hasn't done this yet? - _we_ know that naming
         | things is hard, but perhaps for science, calling every artifact
         | 'literature' doesn't help...
         | 
         | I also think that science catastrophically misunderstands
         | "beginning again". Finding new origins is easiest for those who
         | haven't been conditioned to only see one. It doesn't take
         | magical genius, just (selective) ignorance. This is why (non-
         | trivial) revolutionary paradigms often come from outsiders (or
         | historical scientists who did not complete the endurance test
         | of the modern day burden)
         | 
         | I can't help but think that scientific genius is based on "eh,
         | fuck that, i'm sure there's a better way"
         | 
         | It's as if, when Kuhn wrote "Structute", a million normies
         | cried out in pain, and because they'd already been conditioned
         | to one origin, and couldn't stand the idea of "newbs" getting
         | credit, vowed to prove that "progress by iterative accrual
         | alone" was all that was necessary. And here we are
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | > This is why (non-trivial) revolutionary paradigms often
           | come from outsiders (or historical scientists who did not
           | complete the endurance test of the modern day burden)
           | 
           | Can you give me an example of this in the last century? Or
           | even historically?
        
             | aeim wrote:
             | Why artificially limit the (historical) set-of-all non-
             | trivial revolutionary paradigms to the last century?
             | 
             | Current academia seem to treat the phd (implicit modern) as
             | a minimal barrier to credibility (which is curious for
             | several reasons). But given the modern phd is a relatively
             | recent invention, this heuristic ought to exclude every
             | paper written by those who predate this new form/
             | qualification. Of course, historic progress seems to be
             | revered most of all
             | 
             | The point isn't to suggest that the modern form was beyond
             | historical figures (though I suspect given the nature of
             | earlier scientific progress many might _choose_ to not
             | endure the modern form), but more frame the question  "had
             | they (historical figures) been conditioned to think
             | narrowly, within the contrived 'lanes' of modern isolated
             | disciplines, would they still have thought as they did?"
             | 
             | All of Hofstadters "analogies which shook the world"
             | (surfaces and essences) necessarily depend upon thinking
             | across arbitrarily plural scopes of phenomena, and deeply
             | -- with commitment to the premise that the deepest
             | understanding of our universe which that they might
             | contribute to the endeavour, frames an implicit "universal
             | general domain" of characteristic forms which apply
             | universally. This is the opposite of isolated special-
             | domain thinking/ stay in your lane/ etc
             | 
             | Education includes learning and conditioning. I wonder if
             | the degree to which we stress test conditioning impacts
             | ongoing learning, specifically open learning, learning
             | across (artificial) boundaries of special-domains
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | > in 6th grade we had a student who had recently immigrated
         | from India. By his own telling, he was an average student
         | there. But compared to native students, he was light years
         | ahead in math. We learned multiplication in third grade,
         | division in fourth grade, long division and fractions in fifth
         | grade, or something like that. He had learned multiplication in
         | first grade, and all of division in second grade.
         | 
         | Whether he knew it or not, he was lying to you in claiming he
         | was average. India's education system is notoriously poor.
        
       | thntk wrote:
       | Besides the burden of knowledge and the flaws of academic
       | funding, another factor to explain the slowdown in scientific
       | progress is: _the world has more things to be entertained with_ ,
       | including books, comics, games, movies, music, p@rn, social
       | media. These things have dramatically increased over the past
       | decades, meanwhile the number of hours in a day did not increase
       | at all.
        
       | highfrequency wrote:
       | Great example:
       | 
       | " Ptolemy and his astronomical ancestors explained these
       | "retrograde" motions with the extra loops you see in the map
       | above called "epicycles." By the 15th century astronomers had
       | accumulated centuries of meticulous measurements and incorporated
       | them into complex orbital paths, matching their observations.
       | Learning these models and taking enough measurements to improve
       | one of them took an entire lifetime of monastic devotion to
       | studying the stars. The burden of knowledge was immense.
       | 
       | But then, Copernicus came along with the heliocentric model
       | which, in its simplest initial form, made worse prediction than
       | the tuned-up Ptolemaic model. But the burden of knowledge was
       | dissolved in an instant. Improving the Copernican model meant
       | shifting orbital paths from perfect circles to ellipses. It had
       | nothing to do with the epicycles and perihelions of the Ptolemaic
       | model and none of that burdensome knowledge was necessary to
       | expand the frontier anew."
        
         | its_ethan wrote:
         | Yea a cool example, and sure there are others around this time
         | where "we" figured out previous thinking was just fully wrong.
         | But the author then also says:
         | 
         | > There are thousands of other examples.
         | 
         | Really? Thousands? Are they all similarly examples of pre-
         | scientific method/ pre-industrial revolution knowledge? How
         | many of these "thousand" examples have happened since 1850? Why
         | didn't he list any that have happened in the last 50 years?
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-07-07 23:02 UTC)