[HN Gopher] Show HN: Safe Routes. real time turbulence data, ML ...
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Show HN: Safe Routes. real time turbulence data, ML predictions
with an iPad
Author : oron
Score : 110 points
Date : 2024-06-29 05:56 UTC (17 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (skypath.io)
(TXT) w3m dump (skypath.io)
| oron wrote:
| At SkyPath we have a simple solution that doesn't involve
| installing any HW on the aircraft and uses the airline issued
| iPad the pilot already uses for other important tasks to help
| fight Clear Air Turbulence. We use the iPad's accelerometers to
| measure and report turbulence in real time and collect this data
| via the internet where it's processed in AWS by our machine
| learning model to produce customized alerts for each flight that
| uses our service on incoming CATs in their route.
| tobr wrote:
| What goes into developing, testing, calibrating something like
| this?
| oron wrote:
| Apart from usual SW tests, Lots of testing with airlines and
| experienced pilots. Processing feedback and improving the
| model step by step over the course of several years.
| nerdponx wrote:
| I'm very curious how you "bootstrap" a model like that. Do
| you start with a physics simulation? Make an educated guess
| and then get pilots to label when it's wrong in order to
| incrementally improve? Recruit pilots to manually track CAT
| events?
|
| I've had to build a few of these kinds of models over the
| years, and it's consistently the hardest task I've faced in
| my DS career.
| oron wrote:
| The second is closer to reality , initially let pilots
| (lots of them) label flight events and after landing take
| all data and build the algorithm around their initial
| labels. The when there are more pilots let them label
| agree / disagree and relabel etc.
|
| Another aspect is you have usually two iPads in the
| cockpit for captain and first officer so you can
| correlate and match what both accelerometers read.
| nerdponx wrote:
| Thanks! It's nice validation to know that my approach to
| this kind of problem similar to that of a successful AI
| startup.
| mayasp wrote:
| Ipad accelerometers and GPS
| ammmir wrote:
| amazing! it seems like much of the innovation on the flight
| deck is happening in iPad apps.
|
| i'm curious, in the beginning, before you had so many users of
| the app, how did you convince pilots/airlines to install
| SkyPath before it had enough user-generated turbulence data for
| its ML model? it almost feels like a chicken-and-the-egg
| problem: you need enough reports before it's useful around the
| world at all imaginable air routes, or maybe there's enough
| air/wind data. interesting stuff!
| mayasp wrote:
| The effect on the route is immediate. There is no
| installation or integration so the moment you deploy (with a
| reasonable fleet size) you have data. Those that where quick
| to understand the concept embraced technology very fast even
| without initial data set in the route
| oron wrote:
| We had to give incentives for the first airline partners and
| give the product for free for a long trial period at the
| early years to be able to have initial installs. It was a
| long ride including Covid which came in the middle and didn't
| help. In the last years since we have several big airline
| partners this is less of a problem.
| vivzkestrel wrote:
| how exactly are you using an accelerometer to determine
| turbulence
| sigmoid10 wrote:
| How else would you detect it? Accelerometers seem perfect for
| this use case.
| oron wrote:
| By analyzing the acceleration patterns that the iPad the
| pilot has in the cockpit which is securely attached to the
| aircraft is measuring. Cleaning out noise such as engine and
| other non CAT noise and training our model to identify these
| and also predict future events in the next 3 hours by looking
| at the current data. It takes millions of events and lots of
| pilots which help train the initial model and fine tune it.
| tedd4u wrote:
| Does your app have to run in the foreground on the iPad during
| the flight? Or can the crew user other apps in flight?
| oron wrote:
| Can run in the background, pilot can use any other app
| meanwhile. Or just leave the iPad with screen off. Our app
| keeps recording and alerting as long as you are in flight.
| hollerith wrote:
| I'm assuming that the most valuable data for predicting
| turbulence during a flight is timely data from the
| accelerometers of the iPads on nearby airliners, which gets
| me curious as to whether these iPads usually have
| connectivity (to your AWS servers) during a flight, and how
| that connectivity is provided. (I'm guessing satellite.)
| oron wrote:
| Yes, satellite internet is now standard on many Western
| airlines. In addition to this, we utilize weather data
| and real-time turbulence reports to predict Clear Air
| Turbulence (CAT) events across the entire sky, even where
| iPads are currently not on flights.
| btgeekboy wrote:
| Didn't ForeFlight just come out with something similar
| recently? https://blog.foreflight.com/2024/05/07/smooth-skies/
| They don't mention ML specifically, but I imagine their install
| base is a tad larger and can therefore gather more real data.
| Is your solution different?
| buildsjets wrote:
| Note that Foreflight is a Boeing product. Therefore they
| could potentially have access to actual real-time aircraft
| data that this product would not.
| oron wrote:
| Our solution is compatible with Airbus, Boeing, or any
| other aircraft. It's important to note that connecting to
| the aircraft systems can be more expensive and add
| maintenance and complexity costs for the airline.
| oron wrote:
| We have a partnership with Jeppesen, a Boeing company, for
| their Flight Deck Pro product. With this collaboration, users
| can access our data layer and predictions, and also report
| real-time turbulence within their app. While I'm not
| extensively familiar with the inner workings of ForeFlight,
| based on what I've heard, it relies on an external hardware
| solution, and its coverage and quality are not comparable
| smithcoin wrote:
| Do you offer turbulence predictions for consumers? I'm scared of
| flying and would love to know if my ride will be smooth.
| oron wrote:
| Right now flight predictions and route quality are offered only
| to pilots who are operating the flight and to dispatchers.
| There are discussions with the airlines to integrate our
| technology into their apps but at the moment there is no such
| solution available.
| Ylpertnodi wrote:
| Don't be scared of flying, be scared of crashing. Crashing
| doesn't happen that often.
|
| Try watching/downloading flightradar24 - the sheer number of
| flights is staggering. Then multiply them by the number of days
| since you can (without assistance) _actually_ remember hearing
| about a plane crash.
| havaloc wrote:
| My site focuses on the consumer side and does just that:
| https://turbulenceforecast.com
| oron wrote:
| nice work! where is the data coming from?
| havaloc wrote:
| We're processing noaa data and making it easy to
| understand. I'd love to license your data to display in our
| app behind our paywall.
| scottmcdot wrote:
| Out of curiosity, was this product a result of a company 'pivot'
| after the Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 turbulence incident?
| oron wrote:
| Nope, company was started by commercial / ex-military pilots
| who scratched their own itch and still today is run by pilots
| :-)
| VBprogrammer wrote:
| From the testimonials it seems this is used for tactical rather
| than strategic planning. Honestly, that would keep me up at
| night.
|
| It's similar to problems which have been previously caused by a
| reliance on in cockpit weather data delivered by satellites. At
| worst it can be 15 minutes out of date and more than one eager
| light aircraft pilot has flown into the center of a storm cell
| which wasn't there 15 minutes ago - taking his family with him.
|
| Its only turbulence but worst case scenario with turbulence is
| still pretty bad - injuries and even deaths are completely
| possible outcomes.
| oron wrote:
| Good comment! our algorithms take into account time of report
| as recorded by the aircraft so latency or offline aircraft is
| not an issue. Surprisingly most CAT phenomena is pretty stable
| and can stay in the same area for hours at time.
| VBprogrammer wrote:
| Thanks for responding. That is interesting. I guess you also
| have the advantage that current "state of care" is sharing a
| few radio messages with other aircraft with lots of
| subjective judgements.
| lawrenceduk wrote:
| Mostly mountain wave presumably?
| julienreszka wrote:
| Why not say who this is for?
| oron wrote:
| This solution is for commercial airlines, pilots and
| dispatchers and for general and business aviation.
| ed_db wrote:
| How do you eliminate false positives from pilot usage of the
| device or knocking into it? I wonder how long it will be before
| flight insurers start using this data for hedging following the
| Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 turbulence incident.
| oron wrote:
| Valid observation: turbulence patterns differ from pilot
| tapping and can be recognized and disregarded. While complete
| elimination of false positives isn't always feasible, employing
| various techniques allows us to significantly minimize such
| occurrences, thereby mitigating their impact.
| sandworm101 wrote:
| Forget any app. Just _put on your seatbelt_. If you are wearing a
| seatbelt, the worst that will happen is spilled coffee.
|
| I cannot stand the sound of a hundred belts unclicking all at
| once the moment the seatbelt sign turns off. Idiots. The presence
| of a seatbelt across one's lap is the least of the various
| tortures associated with modern air travel.
| oron wrote:
| Some of the most severe injuries occur among crew members
| because they must rush to secure passengers in their seats,
| often being the last to fasten their own seat belts.
| Additionally, when turbulence reaches a certain intensity, the
| aircraft must undergo costly structural testing on the ground,
| which disrupts the airline's schedule significantly.
| pavel_lishin wrote:
| To be absolutely pedantic, the worst that will happen is the
| unbuckled dingdong sitting next to you becoming a loose item
| and banging into you.
| qwertyuiop_ wrote:
| How does the app connect to the aircraft's internet during flight
| ?
| oron wrote:
| Cockpit WiFi that's open only for the crew.
| culopatin wrote:
| Does the crew also lose internet when flying over the arctic
| circle?
| oron wrote:
| It depends on the provider that the airline has partnered
| with, I suppose. We don't manage the satellite
| connectivity, so I can't provide specifics on that.
| However, in areas with fewer ground stations, disruptions
| are more likely. Our app and servers are designed to
| function effectively on unreliable internet connections. it
| downloads prediction data for several hours ahead and is
| capable of uploading turbulence data once the internet
| connection stabilizes.
| culopatin wrote:
| In my last flight the disconnection over the arctic
| circle lasted about 5hs. Is the data still relevant then?
| Does turbulence happen in cycles and is predictable that
| way?
| oron wrote:
| Five hours is a bit long; you can choose in the app how
| far ahead you would like to see. We typically recommend
| looking two hours ahead. This way, for the initial two
| hours, you'll have some data that may be partially
| outdated but still better than having no information at
| all.
| turrican wrote:
| You guys have a great product, I fly for a major airline and
| really like it. Hurry up and get Delta onboard so we can get
| their data too: I've used their in-house app at my old job and
| Sky Vector is much better.
|
| Any plans to change the Jepp integration? Most of my colleagues
| don't use it, too much data displayed at once. I'm not sure of a
| solution but would love to hear if you guys have any ideas.
| oron wrote:
| Thank you. We are actively working to onboard as many airlines
| as possible, and partnering with Delta would be highly
| beneficial. The more data we have, the safer and more efficient
| flights become.
|
| Regarding the integration with Jeppesen, we would greatly
| appreciate hearing more about any issues you encounter and
| receiving your feedback
| TheJoeMan wrote:
| Anecdote: I recently flew from Texas to Florida, and the pilot
| requested a reroute south around Louisiana to avoid a storm cell.
| ATC denied reroute due to "staffing shortage" and forced us into
| an extremely uncomfortable ride.
|
| I've been hearing about statistics for turbulence incidences
| increasing, and wonder if this type of thing is a contributing
| factor. With this app you'd get a warning but I wonder if you
| could do anything about it.
| oron wrote:
| Good question, turning on the seatbelt sign in this case is a
| good start.
| e12e wrote:
| Cool product. If it helps most flights avoid turbulence - how
| will you continue to record areas with turbulence? :)
|
| Or is the steady state simply clear flight paths with continuous
| adjustments as the clear paths drift?
| oron wrote:
| Typically, flights do not deviate from their planned routes for
| non-severe turbulence levels. It's safer and simpler to have
| passengers remain seated with the seatbelt sign on. Our model
| considers weather inputs alongside real-time data,
| acknowledging that weather is continuously changing and
| somewhat unpredictable. Therefore, we don't perceive this issue
| as significant
| therobots927 wrote:
| This is so cool and all I could think when reading the
| description is how much I want to work with this data lol.
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