[HN Gopher] Singapore doubles down on lab-grown meat as Silicon ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Singapore doubles down on lab-grown meat as Silicon Valley backs
       off
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 115 points
       Date   : 2024-06-23 18:20 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (restofworld.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (restofworld.org)
        
       | ImHereToVote wrote:
       | Can someone explain how lab grown meat releases less greenhouse
       | gasses? Seems like much more energy inefficient than the old
       | fashion way. Are there any figures available that go into the
       | thermodynamics of it all?
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | Nobody talks about the thermodynamics because right now it's
         | terrible (also why the economics is terrible - nobody can get
         | anywhere the $3/kg of chicken breast).
         | 
         | However, _theoretically_ lab grown meat could be a big win on
         | the thermodynamics front, and whoever solves that will have a
         | far easier time getting the economics working too.
        
         | architango wrote:
         | The idea is that cows, and all the infrastructure around
         | raising them, are a huge source of greenhouse gasses, while
         | just cultivating cow meat eliminates everything not directly
         | related to producing a hamburger. More recent studies [1] cast
         | doubt on that and even suggest as you do that cell-cultured
         | meat may be more environmentally damaging, not less.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.21.537778v1....
        
           | energy123 wrote:
           | Can you condense the argument for us? Why can't the supply
           | chain be decarbonised?
        
         | kibwen wrote:
         | When talking about beef specifically, the problem is that cows
         | produce a disproportionate amount of methane, which is a
         | disproportionately powerful greenhouse gas. If you don't want
         | to give up meat but do want to make a dent in your emissions,
         | even just eating pork or chicken instead is an improvement.
         | There might be ways to reduce the emissions of cows in the
         | future (different feeds, gut biome interventions,
         | bioengineering), but right now these are science fiction.
         | 
         | As for the energy inputs themselves, the notion of grass-fed
         | beef often gets trotted out as a way to make beef more eco-
         | friendly, but in practice this mostly amounts to greenwashing.
         | Most beef is not grass-fed, and most places in the world that
         | raise cows are not suited to pure grass feeding.
         | 
         | And then there's the land use aspect. When we're clearcutting
         | the Amazon in order to satisfy the world's demand for beef,
         | we've fucked up.
        
           | klipt wrote:
           | > There might be ways to reduce the emissions of cows in the
           | future (different feeds, gut biome interventions,
           | bioengineering), but right now these are science fiction.
           | 
           | I thought there's already research showing that seaweed in
           | the cow's diet drastically reduces methane emissions.
        
             | coryrc wrote:
             | Yes, just 2% of diet as seaweed essentially eliminates
             | methane emissions. But there's no price on methane
             | emissions for the farmer so no incentive to do so.
        
           | raverbashing wrote:
           | I wonder if anyone tried to capture methane produced in this
           | way
        
           | ryanjshaw wrote:
           | > cows produce a disproportionate amount of methane, which is
           | a disproportionately powerful greenhouse gas.
           | 
           | Can somebody explain run through these quickly, I'm not sure
           | which parts are wrong and how much they're wrong:
           | 
           | 1. the constituents in the methane came from the food the
           | cows eat?
           | 
           | 2. the food got it from the atmosphere?
           | 
           | 3. cows don't increase methane constantly, rather it's the
           | marginal volume of feed required to sustain every new cow on
           | the planet less the ones slaughtered? I.e. the growth in new
           | supply?
           | 
           | 4. Eliminating cows raised for meat would stop the increase
           | in methane due to increase in supply and it would result in a
           | one-off net reduction in atmospheric methane in time
           | proportional to what cows were releasing, assuming the food
           | continues to grow?
           | 
           | 5. What happens when the food the cows are no longer eating
           | dies, does anything get released then?
        
             | xboxnolifes wrote:
             | Not my field, so assumptions and simplifications follow.
             | Animal feed mostly grows from absorbing carbon dioxide, not
             | methane. Cows (and other grazing animals) produce net
             | positive methane because their gut microbiota ferment the
             | animal feed, producing methane. So, to keep methane in
             | balance, something in the local grazing biome needs to
             | absorb methane. Otherwise, cows can increase proportional
             | atmospheric methane.
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | Well yes, but the same grass that these cows eat....would
               | rot and release methane eventually anyway? Is that not
               | correct?
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | It is correct.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | 1/2: Grass turns CO2 and water into sugar and oxygen, cow
             | eats grass and turns sugar and oxygen in to methane and CO2
             | and more cow.
             | 
             | (Via intermediary step of some of their stomachs being
             | bioreactors filled with bacteria, oh the irony).
             | 
             | 3: Sure, but demand is still going up: https://en.wikipedia
             | .org/wiki/File:Beef_production_1961_2021...
             | 
             | 4: I'm not sure I follow the question, but methane has an
             | atmospheric lifetime of about 12 years, so it would
             | probably fall, but I'm not sure how much by
             | 
             | 5: Some mixture of CO2, methane, and carbon sequestration;
             | at this scale it's worth considering which crops are grown
             | and how they are used precisely to minimise that kind of
             | impact
        
             | lazide wrote:
             | Assuming no fossil fuels provide the carbon, the whole
             | thing is indeed carbon neutral.
             | 
             | However, from a green house gas perspective, plants consume
             | Co2 (moderate green house potential), and either due to
             | rotting or as part of digestion, methane does get produced.
             | Which has a high green house potential. Not in identical
             | proportions to the co2 consumed of course, cows and rotting
             | plants also produce co2.
             | 
             | So think of part of the problem being some co2 being
             | converted into a more problematic green house gas (methane)
             | with a lot of steps in the middle.
             | 
             | Also people being jealous of that tasty steak that is a
             | byproduct of the process.
        
         | dvh wrote:
         | I think the end goal is control of food production:
         | 
         | 1. Introduce artificial meat that only large corporations can
         | make
         | 
         | 2. Ban natural meat as artificial alternative exists
         | 
         | 3. Jack up the prices and profit
        
           | llamaimperative wrote:
           | That's actually super hilarious given the conglomeration that
           | has occurred already anyway.
           | 
           | Turns out you can just skip both the incredible engineering
           | problem of lab grown meat _and_ the incredible political
           | problem of "banning meat" and even people who are apparently
           | paranoid about corporate /government control will just go
           | right along with it.
        
           | spamizbad wrote:
           | Most of the meat consumed in the US already comes from a
           | large corporation. 99% of it is factory farmed.
           | 
           | Source: https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-animals-are-
           | factory-farm...
        
           | energy123 wrote:
           | Reality is the opposite with the agriculture and beef lobbies
           | influencing government and cultured meat facing outright bans
        
             | 123yawaworht456 wrote:
             | however, agriculture and beef lobbies don't demand a ban on
             | small farms and individual cattle raising.
        
           | ohmyiv wrote:
           | Yeah, that already happens in the current world with current
           | corporations. You just don't notice because you're too busy
           | consuming.
           | 
           | And I dont mean this in an angry environmentalist way. There
           | are a lot of people who dont pay attention to their current
           | food chain and don't know just how tightly most of the brands
           | are controlled by a select group of companies.
           | 
           | So before jumping to future conspiracies, look at what you're
           | in now:
           | 
           | https://capitaloneshopping.com/blog/11-companies-that-own-
           | ev...
           | 
           | https://xtalks.com/food-industry-by-the-numbers-leading-
           | food...
           | 
           | I eat some of the above foods, so I'm not some anticorporate
           | person.
        
           | standardUser wrote:
           | A perpetual goal of _all_ civilization has been control of
           | food production, without which we reliably starve to death.
        
         | MattGaiser wrote:
         | One of the larger issues is the methane byproduct, i.e. they
         | fart. It isn't just about energy.
        
           | coryrc wrote:
           | Burps, actually. Even harder to capture if you were going to
           | try.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | I think it's more an issue of resources rather than raw energy.
         | If this can be produced using much less space, locally to
         | consumers, and using clean energy then it's a net gain.
         | 
         | What I'm interested in is where do the raw materials come from?
         | I suppose this needs a number of "ingredients", including
         | proteins, that must be sourced from somewhere.
        
       | architango wrote:
       | Cell-cultured meat industry veteran (and dropout) here. If
       | Singaporean companies are able to make a viable business out of
       | cell-cultured meat, that would be fantastic, and a boon to the
       | world. Some skepticism is warranted, though. It's very difficult
       | to do this at scale, and that's regardless of unit price.
       | Cultivating the meat that sells at a mass-market price is the
       | real challenge and one I wouldn't bet on anytime soon, not even
       | by 2030. The technical challenges are too many to list here, some
       | of which are not public knowledge. Besides, the once-touted
       | environmental advantages have turned out to be marginal at best.
       | 
       | One way this business might make sense would be to sell boutique
       | cell-cultured "specialty" meats, like scallops, veal, and wooly
       | mammoth (yes, it's been seriously considered). They're not nearly
       | as price-sensitive, and the scale is smaller. Here's hoping we
       | can ease the burden on endangered populations and mitigate the
       | inherent cruelty of some of those industries with cell-cultured
       | alternatives.
        
         | contingencies wrote:
         | Singapore is a follower. Whatever they're in to happened
         | elsewhere 2 years before.
         | 
         | More broadly, it's not really about cell-cultured meat. It's
         | about producing _any kind of protein whatsoever_ which can be
         | ingratiated in to the food supply chain _anywhere_. The huge
         | success in culturally normalizing the consumption of  'beef
         | balls' and similar '<highly processed, derivative, nominal
         | protein identity> balls' in markets like Thailand to my
         | critical eye largely stem from the beef ball factories of
         | Shantou in Guangdong. Make no mistake: those people are making
         | bank selling total bunk for real bucks.
         | 
         | Poverty will be the driver.
         | 
         | Economically, it's hard to pass up plants. They've literally
         | evolved over millions of years to produce the goods using
         | almost nothing in resource terms. Somehow the world just needs
         | to learn to love Indian food and stop expecting protein and
         | lipid dense meals.
        
           | jsemrau wrote:
           | Singapore also has great universities. Research into this
           | area fits Singapore well.
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | The entire culture of the country is much more oriented to
             | being a fast follower though. They do not innovate.
        
               | acheong08 wrote:
               | By your standards, most of the world outside the US does
               | not innovate, which makes sense since if they did, the
               | tech would be bought up by a US company anyways
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | You're not wrong about the economics. Access to large amounts
           | of high-quality protein (regardless of whether it's plant or
           | animal derived) is increasingly going to divide the rich and
           | poor. We can easily grow enough crops to provide everyone
           | with enough calories (distribution problems aside), but
           | people can't maximize performance and healthspan eating
           | mostly grains and starches.
           | 
           | https://peterattiamd.com/lucvanloon/
        
             | contingencies wrote:
             | Sure but most people aren't in to resistance training.
             | They're in to high fructose corn syrup, processed foods,
             | and sedentary lifestyles. I wondered which product
             | generates higher returns: protein powders or statins?
             | Actually according to Google the former is USD$28B and the
             | latter is only USD$20B at the moment. I'd expect the latter
             | to grow and the former to shrink.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | Not just statins but diet drugs like wegovy. I suspect
               | that people's addiction to corn syrup will be solved
               | medically, not with willpower or lifestyle changes.
               | 
               | Side note: "in to" should be one word - "into".
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | I fear that people will eat less corn syrup but only
               | because they're eating less overall. I'd love to see
               | people put the money they save into higher quality food,
               | but history suggests otherwise.
               | 
               | The corn syrup based foods are cheap, tasty, and really
               | easy to eat. It's too bad they have no nutrients besides
               | calories.
        
               | bboygravity wrote:
               | The corn syrup thing is a US-only thing, isn't it?
               | 
               | The rest of the world seems to use sugar from beets/sugar
               | cane/coconuts?
               | 
               | Correct me if I'm wrong, I base the above statements on a
               | rant by an American coworker about how the corn lobby
               | managed to somehow force American food producers to
               | exclusively use relatively high calory corn syrup as a
               | sweetener as opposed to much lower calory sweeteners.
        
               | ToucanLoucan wrote:
               | The short version is it's because of steep subsidies on
               | corn as a crop. We have tons of the shit, and
               | artificially cheap at that. It goes into foods as itself,
               | foods as corn syrup, corn flour, and a substantial amount
               | is converted to ethanol for fuel.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Corn syrup is kind of a bogeyman in some circles because
               | it contains a slightly higher fraction of fructose than
               | sugar produced from beets or sugar cane. There might be a
               | little something to that as fructose is metabolized
               | through a different pathway than glucose and there is
               | some correlation at the country level between consumption
               | and diabetes rates. But with sugar it's really more the
               | quantity that matters rather than the composition.
               | 
               | https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2012.736257
        
               | Avshalom wrote:
               | It actually contains less fructose than cane sugar, it
               | just has more fructose than normal corn
        
               | fbdab103 wrote:
               | Were you attempting to post a different link? That study
               | points a pretty strong negative correlation with corn
               | syrup.                 ...Diabetes prevalence was 20%
               | higher in countries with higher availability of HFCS
               | compared to countries with low availability, and these
               | differences were retained or strengthened after adjusting
               | for country-level estimates of body mass index (BMI),
               | population and gross domestic product (adjusted diabetes
               | prevalence=8.0 vs. 6.7%, p=0.03; fasting plasma
               | glucose=5.34 vs. 5.22 mmol/L, p=0.03) despite
               | similarities in obesity and total sugar and calorie
               | availability. These results suggest that countries with
               | higher availability of HFCS have a higher prevalence of
               | type 2 diabetes independent of obesity.
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | >The corn syrup thing is a US-only thing, isn't it?
               | 
               | No, corn syrup is used in food and drinks all over the
               | world.
               | 
               | Personally, I have nothing against corn syrup so long as
               | the sweetness actually tastes nice and appropriate for
               | what I'm consuming.
               | 
               | Corn syrup is also a _lot_ better than artificial
               | sweeteners which all taste like hot garbage and make me
               | literally ill.
        
               | bsder wrote:
               | > They're in to high fructose corn syrup, processed
               | foods, and sedentary lifestyles.
               | 
               | The problem is that US government subsidies for corn and
               | soy have created an entire class of products that are
               | cheaper than any alternatives.
               | 
               | If we removed those subsidies, there would be far less
               | incentive for companies to use them.
        
           | olejorgenb wrote:
           | > It's about producing any kind of protein whatsoever which
           | can be ingratiated in to the food supply chain anywhere
           | 
           | We have at least some options for this already. Mycoprotein
           | is one https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoprotein |
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quorn#Production (apart from
           | the plant isolates)
        
           | Scarblac wrote:
           | > Singapore is a follower. Whatever they're in to happened
           | elsewhere 2 years before.
           | 
           | > [...]
           | 
           | > It's about producing any kind of protein whatsoever
           | 
           | Personally I follow fermentation based (bacteria based)
           | proteins with interest, potentially they can have an even
           | smaller footprint than plant based protein.
           | 
           | Like Solein ( https://solarfoods.com/solein/ ), which has now
           | been accepted as safe for human consumption in one country:
           | Singapore.
           | 
           | So they're not always behind the curve.
        
             | contingencies wrote:
             | _potentially they can have an even smaller footprint than
             | plant based protein._
             | 
             | Maybe one day - the potential of fungi is amazing. It's a
             | whole world that is fundamental to ecology and
             | comparatively poorly understood or mapped. However, I
             | remain skeptical at present once you factor in one or both
             | of the lab costs (steel vats, process control, power
             | consumption, thermal systems, and lab employees) and the
             | raw inputs (fermentation doesn't happen on thin air).
             | 
             | By the time you've grown the raw input, why not just grow a
             | food crop?
             | 
             | I feel virtue-signalling regulatory moves are meaningless.
             | Case in point: many markets are totally unregulated, by
             | your logic they're ahead of the curve. I don't disagree.
        
               | padjo wrote:
               | It does seem like hubris to think we're anywhere near
               | being able to design a protein synthesis process that's
               | more efficient than a soy plant.
        
               | bitmasher9 wrote:
               | I don't think so. A soy plant has tons of evolutionary
               | baggage tied to its protein synthesis. It has to
               | reproduce, out compete other life for resources, be hardy
               | enough to survive both pests and pesticides, and it
               | evolved in a resource constrained environment.
               | 
               | For life generating protein is a byproduct of other
               | goals. It seems possible that we can do better.
        
         | 1992spacemovie wrote:
         | > wooly mammoth (yes, it's been seriously considered)
         | 
         | Hell yeah. I'm not really a fan of the lab grown meat aspect
         | but I'd try a wooly mammoth burger.
        
           | perihelions wrote:
           | To think no one in history has ever tasted mammoth burger--
           | milled flour bread buns wouldn't have coexisted with
           | Neolithic mammoth hunters, that was an expensive
           | specialization of the agriculture era.
           | 
           | (Or perhaps Neolithic people would pity us and our culinary
           | traditions--the bland, meaningless ennui of takeout fast-
           | food. The true enjoyment of mammoth steak, we shall never
           | know, is what it tastes when you've chased it down yourself
           | for three days on foot).
        
           | delichon wrote:
           | Lab grown human flesh would remove the health risks around
           | cannibalism but I assume the taboo would remain. Otherwise
           | I'm imagining tasting menus of an extreme variety of
           | creatures extinct, endangered or just previously hard to fit
           | into the supply chain.
        
             | fbdab103 wrote:
             | Depending on where tastes go, you could even have celebrity
             | meats.
             | 
             | Swiftie Burgers. Kardashian hot dogs. Nixon ribs.
        
               | leni536 wrote:
               | Eat the rich?
        
             | rsynnott wrote:
             | Arthur C Clarke got there some 60 years before you:
             | https://bestreadables.com/short-stories/arthur-c-clarke-
             | the-...
        
             | photonthug wrote:
             | Weird to think about, but maybe a sideline in medical
             | applications can offset r+d. useful as grafts?
        
           | nkrisc wrote:
           | Maybe this is more of a philosophical question, but to me
           | "lab-grown mammoth muscular tissue" is not "mammoth meat" if
           | it hasn't lived a mammoth's life. I doubt it would taste the
           | same as the real deal. Of course it's as close is we're going
           | to get, most likely.
        
           | krisoft wrote:
           | Idk. I would love to taste real mammoth. But with the lab
           | grown "mammoth" i feel there is just too many knobs they can
           | tweak, and without a reference who knows how authentic it
           | would be. Basically the company making it would be strongly
           | incentivised to squeeze some strange yet acceptable flavour
           | profile. You don't want everyone to think it tastes too much
           | like a cow, because how do you justify the price point then.
           | But you also don't want it to taste so gamey or weird that
           | people refuse it. Both would be financial ruin for the
           | company. So instead of getting how a real mammoth tasted you
           | would get some taste balanced to feel exotic yet acceptable.
           | 
           | I bet the taste would depend more on the tastes of the team
           | making it than the actual flavour profile of a mamoth.
        
         | 23B1 wrote:
         | > the once-touted environmental advantages have turned out to
         | be marginal at best.
         | 
         | Would love to see an article about this if you have one. Just
         | curious is all.
        
         | foota wrote:
         | Singapore is a rich nation with tiny amounts of land, so it
         | might make sense there even if not other places.
         | 
         | Huh... I figured that china would account for most of their
         | food imports, but that's not actually the case.
         | 
         | https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/SGP/Yea...
         | 
         | Surprisingly France and the UK are high up there, despite being
         | geographically distant industrialized countries (e.g., not
         | primarily based on agriculture). I wonder if this is because
         | this is showing dollar value imports and these places export
         | high cost food products? ... is it just champagne from France?
         | 
         | Edit: oh my god it is champagne (or more generally spirits:
         | https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/imports/france)
        
           | metadat wrote:
           | At what point does the high-effort labmeat become more
           | economical for Singapore than importing meat? I suspect this
           | is the nontrivial bit of the equation, massive quantities of
           | imports are already inbound every single day.
        
             | foota wrote:
             | There may be some aspect of geopolitical independence here
             | as well, if they're dependent on imports for luxury foods
             | (like meat) then they're more exposed to higher prices and
             | external supply issues (which might be health related,
             | scarcity, or some kind of politically caused scarcity).
        
               | metadat wrote:
               | I must respectfully disagree. Geopolitical independence
               | is fundamentally less of a concern for luxury goods. You
               | not being able to get a fancy steak is not a national
               | security threat.
        
               | photonthug wrote:
               | Isn't part of the point that they are importing their
               | staples and luxury, rice as well as steak?
        
               | metadat wrote:
               | Not in times of scarcity (with a recent example being the
               | pandemic).
        
               | foota wrote:
               | Sure, but it's not going to make people happy. (tongue in
               | cheek) Unhappy people can be a national security threat.
        
             | justsomehnguy wrote:
             | > high-effort labmeat become more economical for Singapore
             | than importing meat?
             | 
             | When you would be able to import the labmeat ingredients
             | for at least 8x times the result weight of the imported
             | meat.
             | 
             | Where S. would get these ingredients _domestically_?
        
           | wordofx wrote:
           | Most people in Singapore try to food from China if possible.
        
           | arugulum wrote:
           | Two points to consider, one against and one for.
           | 
           | 1) It's a small island, but it's also a major trading port.
           | Which means its whole economy is already geared towards
           | importing food from neighboring countries.
           | 
           | 2) On the other hand: no domestic industry to disrupt! No
           | domestic farming groups lobbying against meat substitutes,
           | which may push research/distribution furhter along.
        
           | tapotatonumber9 wrote:
           | I wonder how much of the French/UK imports are resold as duty
           | free good's especially champagne, spirits and LVHM luxury
           | items.
        
           | Staple_Diet wrote:
           | Given we are talking about meat I thought your linked plot
           | looked weird (Australia was way too small). Then I realised
           | that you have to select 'Animal' rather than 'Food Products'
           | to see just meat imports, with the expected suspects being
           | there (Aus, NZ, Brazil, Malaysia and Indonesia).
        
         | rodgerd wrote:
         | > Cultivating the meat that sells at a mass-market price is the
         | real challenge and one I wouldn't bet on anytime soon, not even
         | by 2030.
         | 
         | Given the money going into lobbying states to make it illegal
         | in the US, I can only assume that it must have some chance of
         | success.
        
       | 39896880 wrote:
       | > The formulation of its new product uses just 3% cultivated
       | chicken in order to sell at a lower price point so more people
       | can try it, he said
       | 
       | So it's 97% normal chicken, but 3% cultured? That doesn't seem
       | too interesting.
        
       | benzible wrote:
       | See https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-
       | sca... for a thorough exploration of why lab grown meat will
       | never happen...
       | 
       | > Humbird likened the process of researching the report to
       | encountering an impenetrable "Wall of No"--his term for the
       | barriers in thermodynamics, cell metabolism, bioreactor design,
       | ingredient costs, facility construction, and other factors that
       | will need to be overcome before cultivated protein can be
       | produced cheaply enough to displace traditional meat.
       | 
       | > "And it's a fractal no," he told me. "You see the big no, but
       | every big no is made up of a hundred little nos."
       | 
       | I've posted this comment before, but the linked article is
       | relevant to every story about lab-grown meat as the entire
       | concept is a fantasy, or less charitably, a scam.
        
         | dekken_ wrote:
         | all we need to do is break the second law of thermodynamics,
         | what's the big deal?
        
         | eikenberry wrote:
         | > and other factors that will need to be overcome before
         | cultivated protein can be produced cheaply enough to displace
         | traditional meat.
         | 
         | This elides over the cost differential and where that "cheaply
         | enough" wall is. Animal grown meat is currently rising in costs
         | and will continue to rise in costs as both demand is rising and
         | the habitat for those animals is constricting due to climate
         | change. How much cheaper does lab grown meat and how much more
         | more expensive does animal grown meat need to be before it
         | becomes viable. From what I've read they are closer than this
         | argument assumes.
        
           | exe34 wrote:
           | another classic case of differential accounting - if the
           | climate adaptation cost attached to farming was charged in
           | the price of meat, maybe the no would be on the other foot.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | I can easily believe it's a fractal of _hard_ , but I cannot
         | believe it's a fractal of _no_ , and absolutely not as a
         | question of thermodynamics.
         | 
         | It's clearly _possible_ to make muscle cells (and other
         | components of meat) reproduce rapidly: cattle exist.
         | 
         | It's clearly _hard_ , or we'd have already have all this plus
         | vat-grown organs and (affordable) vat-grown leather.
         | 
         | And some (non-meat) cells are already convenient to grow in
         | vats (you just don't want to get all your protein from
         | nutritional yeast and/or spirulina).
         | 
         | "1000 ways to not make a lightbulb", or whatever the real
         | original Edison quote was -- what's the number, 90% of start-
         | ups fail?
        
           | benzible wrote:
           | The "no" in this context is addressing whether cultured meat
           | will ever be economically viable at scale, not just
           | scientifically possible. The article suggests a compelling
           | argument against this viability, in that the breakthroughs
           | needed for commercially viable cultured meat would also
           | revolutionize the far more lucrative pharmaceutical industry.
           | The fact that these advances haven't been achieved in pharma,
           | despite massive financial incentives and decades of research,
           | is strong evidence of their fundamental difficulty or
           | impracticality.
           | 
           | For instance, even the most efficient cell lines used in
           | pharmaceuticals aren't efficient enough for low-cost
           | production of bulk cell mass. This implies cultured meat
           | companies are attempting to solve problems that have long
           | eluded a much larger, better-funded industry. The absence of
           | these breakthroughs in pharma, where the financial rewards
           | would be enormous, suggests they may be fundamentally
           | unattainable with foreseeable technology.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | > unattainable with foreseeable technology
             | 
             | This I agree with; it's just... well, I'm 40 now[0], and a
             | lot of biology that can be done today involved technology
             | that was not foreseeable when I was born.
             | 
             | So, yes, pharmaceuticals getting the hard problems solved
             | first, sure -- I'd say that I'd know not to invest in vat-
             | meat startups until pharmaceuticals companies have solved
             | problems I'm oblivious to except for the logical
             | impossibility with such a test.
             | 
             | [0] aaaaaaa
        
             | fabian2k wrote:
             | The limits in pharma aren't production, they're figuring
             | out which 10% of drugs will get through all the clinical
             | trials.
        
               | benzible wrote:
               | While drug discovery may be the most lucrative
               | opportunity overall, production costs remain significant
               | in pharma, especially for biologics and cell therapies,
               | and breakthroughs in these areas are well worth pursuing.
               | CAR-T treatments, which use similar technologies to
               | cultured meat, have manufacturing costs of
               | $95,000-$156,000 per dose [0].
               | 
               | For generics and biosimilars, more efficient production
               | could be a major competitive advantage. The fact that we
               | haven't seen breakthroughs in this area, despite clear
               | financial motivation, suggests these are not easily
               | solvable problems.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/car-t-
               | manufacturi...
        
               | dado3212 wrote:
               | CAR-T treatments are expensive because they're
               | individualized. The process has to be repeated per-
               | individual. That's completely different from lab-meat.
        
           | dekken_ wrote:
           | > absolutely not as a question of thermodynamics.
           | 
           | it "absolutely" is, anything that exists, is fundamentally a
           | question of thermodynamics, it's unavoidable.
        
         | jimbob45 wrote:
         | I wish I could get back the five minutes it took to read that
         | stupid article. The argument for the second half is "his report
         | seemed really technical to us and nobody has ever cited it in
         | the four years since it was published so it's a massive
         | conspiracy by every scientist ever because everything he said
         | was so right."
         | 
         | Either _every single_ company is wholesale lying about key
         | parts of their processes and outputs...or this is just another
         | hitpiece by Big Ag with exaggerated claims.
        
         | ortsa wrote:
         | It seems like all the arguments there are predicated on the
         | "meat" being actual muscle cells in a vat, though. Wouldn't it
         | be just as likely that the successfully engineered food ends up
         | being just, like, kelp with GM'd amino acid byproducts or
         | something? Or chicken-of-the-woods with more random proteins
         | thrown in? (I mean as long as they don't kill the culture, it
         | doesn't matter if it benefits the host organism.)
         | 
         | I'm sure that's all harder than it sounds. But I doubt it's the
         | same "wall of no" as muscles in a vat.
        
         | miles wrote:
         | > See https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-
         | sca... for a thorough exploration of why lab grown meat will
         | never happen...
         | 
         | The NYT carried another opinion piece by the same author this
         | year[1] along with a number of reader rebuttals[2], including
         | this one from Mindy Kursban:
         | 
         | > It is surprising that in his obituary for cultivated meat,
         | Joe Fassler spends so few words on the viability of the science
         | and cites more chief executives than scientists.
         | 
         | > Just recently, the chair of Tufts University's biomedical
         | engineering department, David Kaplan, who has published more
         | than 1,000 peer-reviewed papers, told[3] a room full of
         | cultivated meat scientists that progress over the past five
         | years gives him "complete confidence that we're going to get to
         | where we need to go."
         | 
         | > There are many eminent scientists all over the world who
         | share Dr. Kaplan's view, but readers would not know that from
         | reading Mr. Fassler's essay, which argues that cultivated meat
         | is a project of Silicon Valley "dreamers with a fancy
         | prototype, a pitch deck and a good amount of natural charm."
         | 
         | > This groundbreaking science may be taking longer than
         | initially thought, but it's making strides, so it's a shame
         | that Mr. Fassler spends so little time exploring it.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/opinion/eat-just-
         | upside-f...
         | 
         | [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/opinion/lab-grown-
         | meat.ht...
         | 
         | [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGzXAuiYKGU
        
         | nerdjon wrote:
         | As someone who has zero stakes in this (well beyond the planet)
         | and limited knowledge in the biological sides of this.
         | 
         | This feels incredibly dismissive? Sure I will concede that most
         | likely the 9 year timeline mentioned in that article is
         | incredibly optimistic and very likely will not come to
         | fruition.
         | 
         | But I think it is also naive to think, regardless of how much
         | you know on a particular subject, that there are not solutions
         | to problems that have not been developed yet or that there are
         | already examples to those problems that are not public
         | knowledge (it even mentions that the paper was written with NDA
         | knowledge).
         | 
         | Then it is even more naive to try to paint a "wall of no"
         | seemingly in a way to shut down research on this subject.
         | 
         | Just look at the silicone chips allowing us to have what once
         | would have been considered a super computer in our pockets
         | compared to when computers were tubes. Of course at that time
         | anyone suggesting that a personal computing device would even
         | be possible would likely be laughed out the room, the core
         | technology didn't even exist to think that maybe some day it
         | would be possible.
         | 
         | Are these companies and that paper making lofty promises that
         | may be borderline lying to investors, maybe. But I don't think
         | we should be saying it is impossible at this point in time.
        
       | pedalpete wrote:
       | Many of the cultured meat companies are going about this the
       | wrong way from an economic standpoint. They often try to make the
       | new chicken nugget, a low cost mass produced food that may seem
       | easy to replicate, because it is already so processed.
       | 
       | This is were Vow, and a few others are going the high-end, foods
       | that haven't really existed before, with their Japanese Quail
       | Parfait. Similar to how Tesla started with the roadster, and then
       | went to the S, 3, Y, etc etc.
       | 
       | Imagine creating a cultured cavier or foie gras. Sold in small
       | quantities to those who want the experience, social signaling,
       | and opportunity to make a small difference. The companies won't
       | make money on these items, but they can cover a higher percentage
       | of their cost, and learn how to scale. Then move into less rare,
       | but still coveted foods, etc etc
        
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