[HN Gopher] Gilead shot prevents all HIV cases in trial
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       Gilead shot prevents all HIV cases in trial
        
       Author : toomuchtodo
       Score  : 242 points
       Date   : 2024-06-20 19:12 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | toomuchtodo wrote:
       | https://archive.today/7cGmG
       | 
       | Press release: https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-
       | room/press-relea...
        
       | nevi-me wrote:
       | How do tests for drugs like this get conducted?
       | 
       | "Here's a shot, go have sex with people with HIV"? I hope the
       | young women conducting the trials were compensated sufficiently
       | for the risk taken, especially those who contracted HIV during
       | the period.
        
         | mmh0000 wrote:
         | You give the shot to a group and you give no shot to another
         | group. Then you compare rates of HIV contractions between the
         | two groups.
        
           | tupshin wrote:
           | The summary text explicitly called out why that would be
           | unethical in this case.
        
             | asveikau wrote:
             | They don't ask people to live their lives any differently
             | than they would, nor do they expose anyone to HIV on
             | purpose; they just track them assuming that x% of people
             | get HIV in any given year. So they compare what X is for
             | people who got the shot, vs those who did not.
             | 
             | As I skim TFA, they say nobody who got the shot ended up
             | getting HIV, which would be statistical anomaly for the
             | population they tested.
        
               | smeej wrote:
               | It's not "no shot," though. It's other existing, widely
               | available forms of pre-exposure prophylaxis.
               | 
               | They're not comparing the new treatment to _nothing._
               | They 're comparing it to existing treatments.
        
               | asveikau wrote:
               | Oh, ok, I skimmed past this:
               | 
               | > The shot was also superior to once-daily Truvada,
               | another Gilead drug that is used for HIV prevention.
               | 
               | That's good news. As I understand it the existing
               | treatments were already very good. And these injections
               | are only once per year.
        
               | duskwuff wrote:
               | Twice a year, but yes. That's a huge benefit -- not only
               | is it easier for patients to stay on the treatment, but
               | it's likely to be a lot cheaper as well.
        
         | jghn wrote:
         | They're comparing against typical rates of infection over time.
        
         | Svoka wrote:
         | How does your mind even go there? Did you consider they just
         | give shots and see how many of treated got infected in
         | treatment vs control group?
        
           | nevi-me wrote:
           | People are sexually active at different rates over different
           | times, I also assume that a 100 people having sex with each
           | other, where none of them have HIV, would not contract it.
           | 
           | It's like giving police officers new buller-proof vests, and
           | then none of them getting in the firing line. You can't say
           | that your vests are more efficient than other vests if they
           | technically didn't get tested.
           | 
           | So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are
           | sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to
           | be effective.
        
             | opprobium wrote:
             | South Africa (study was in SA and Uganda) has an adult HIV
             | prevalence of 18.3% and 210k new infections per year. It is
             | easy to select a high risk group in which you would expect
             | to see new HIV infections during the course of the study
             | without intervention.
        
             | imzadi wrote:
             | They don't need to ensure that all test groups are exposed
             | to people with HIV. There is already a known risk factor
             | for the specific population. All they need to do is see if
             | the people who received the medication had
             | more/fewer/similar infection rates as those who didn't.
             | 
             | Think about it like studies on which cars perform better in
             | crashes. They don't need to have people drive more
             | wrecklessly to determine if the car is safer. They just
             | need to look at the expected risk compared to the outcomes
             | of the people who drive that car. They are already doing
             | the risky thing.
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | > So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups
             | are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the
             | trial to be effective.
             | 
             | They don't. Some people will organically have sex with
             | people with HIV, and some will not. Your study just needs
             | to recruit enough participants that it is likely some will.
             | Your study absolutely does not tell people to deliberately
             | have sex with HIV+ partners.
        
             | langcss wrote:
             | I think it is like coin flips, do enough of them and the
             | total heads or tails gets very predictable even though
             | individual flips are not.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | Here's the study page. https://www.purposestudies.com/purpose1/
         | and extensive details on clinicaltrials.gov
         | https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04994509 It's double-blind
         | so the patients do not know if they received the drug or an
         | alternative. The investigators inform the patients of the risk
         | and tell them to do what they would usually do. The
         | participants must meet certain criteria including already being
         | sexually active. The investigators would not tell the
         | participants to be more sexually active, or active with more
         | risky people than they normally would. The prevalence of HIV
         | infection in the area is already fairly high so people are
         | actively at risk already. I believe there was only very limited
         | compensation.
        
         | withinrafael wrote:
         | I didn't think the question was unreasonable as some suggest
         | and couldn't find an answer in any of the replies to you.
         | 
         | Poking around, it's my understanding that double blind
         | procedure only covers treatment _allocation_ --that is, who
         | gets the placebo or not--and does not exclude general
         | experiment communication to patients. I imagine trial
         | communication is something generic along the lines of "We're
         | running a novel drug trial, help us gather more data for
         | $50/shot."
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | I don't think the question is inherently unreasonable, but
           | they asked it in a really flip and disrespectful way, and
           | weirdly went with a very negative assumption. There's also a
           | whole field of medical research ethics and, I guess, it is
           | hard to believe that somebody could be not aware of that
           | (then again, I guess everyone has to learn it at some point).
        
             | nevi-me wrote:
             | Yeah, I asked it in a negative way, probably because I hold
             | the view that Africa is the dumping ground for unethical
             | behaviour/products. Just 2 months ago we were outraged at
             | Nestle putting sugar in baby foods [0] in Africa. We have 2
             | kids, the eldest of which is addicted to sugar.
             | 
             | As a South African, I appreciate that we're also the most
             | unequal country in the world (by Gini coef). So, some of
             | what was going on in my mind as I read the Bloomberg piece,
             | was:
             | 
             | * did they choose people at random, because the high HIV
             | rate is obviously skewed towards vulnerable groups (think a
             | young woman who's financially dependent on her boyfriend,
             | who has multiple partners)
             | 
             | * just because the HIV rate is prevalent, doesn't mean that
             | young sexually active people would have multiple partners,
             | so how do they account for situations where we were
             | sexually active, but with 1 or safe partners
             | 
             | * condoms are freely available in clinics and often public
             | toilets, and we've generally gone past the fear of asking
             | for them. So how does safe sex affect their study
             | 
             | [0] https://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-
             | news/opinion/2024/2024-04....
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | > So, some of what was going on in my mind as I read the
               | Bloomberg piece, was: did they choose people at random
               | 
               | They chose around 5000 people; they randomized them to
               | either try the new shot, or one of two existing PREP
               | drugs.
               | 
               | Of the 2000 people in the lenacapavir group, 0 got HIV,
               | while dozens got HIV in the existing PREP groups.
               | 
               | When you have that many people and shuffle them, the
               | groups end up pretty similar. You'd have to be really
               | unlucky to get all the promiscuous people in the PREP
               | groups.
               | 
               | PREP is already pretty effective; to have such a crushing
               | result over PREP is a breakthrough.
        
           | x0x0 wrote:
           | It was literally answered directly in the article
           | 
           | > _The trial involved about 5,300 women and female
           | adolescents ages 16 to 25 in South Africa and Uganda, some of
           | whom who received Gilead lenacapavir, and others who received
           | older once-daily drugs from Gilead, including Truvada or
           | Descovy._
           | 
           | Not to mention a superficial understanding of how drug trials
           | are conducted would exclude that method.
        
         | 3523582908 wrote:
         | A while ago I watched this highly disturbing documentary
         | produced by Vice about the prevalence of rape in the DRC as a
         | weapon of war and terror against women. [1]. I have to imagine
         | that this is involved, somehow.
         | 
         | 1:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IffpoUQpDc&pp=ygUUdGhlIHZpY...
        
           | folli wrote:
           | How so?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _the prevalence of rape in the DRC_
           | 
           | This was in South Africa. You might as conclude on life in
           | America based on observations in Caracas.
        
         | asveikau wrote:
         | As I understand it would go like this:
         | 
         | Normally, some percentage of the population will get HIV in any
         | given year. So what you do is give a bunch of people the shot
         | and track them long term. You count how many got HIV after N
         | years, compared to what would be expected in a normal
         | population.
         | 
         | Nobody is exposed to HIV as part of the study, that exposure
         | would come through the participants living their ordinary
         | lives.
        
       | worldvoyageur wrote:
       | From Gilead's press release:
       | 
       | " PURPOSE 1, a Phase 3, double-blind, randomized study, is
       | evaluating the safety and efficacy of twice-yearly, subcutaneous
       | lenacapavir for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and once-daily
       | oral Descovy(r) (emtricitabine 200mg and tenofovir alafenamide
       | 25mg; F/TAF) in more than 5,300 cisgender women and adolescent
       | girls aged 16-25 across 25 sites in South Africa and three sites
       | in Uganda. The drugs are being tested in parallel, with one group
       | receiving twice-yearly lenacapavir and one group taking once-
       | daily oral Descovy. Additionally, a third group was assigned
       | once-daily oral Truvada. Study participants were randomized in a
       | 2:2:1 ratio to lenacapavir, Descovy and Truvada, respectively.
       | Because effective PrEP options already exist, there is broad
       | consensus in the PrEP field that a placebo group would be
       | unethical; thus, the trial used bHIV as the primary comparator
       | and Truvada as a secondary comparator.
       | 
       | There were 0 incident cases of HIV infection among 2,134 women in
       | the lenacapavir group (incidence 0.00 per 100 person-years).
       | There were 16 incident cases among 1,068 women in the Truvada
       | group (incidence 1.69 per 100 person-years). The results
       | demonstrated superiority of twice-yearly lenacapavir over bHIV
       | (primary endpoint, incidence 2.41 per 100 person-years) and
       | superiority of twice-yearly lenacapavir over once-daily Truvada
       | (secondary endpoint), with p<0.0001 for both endpoints. In the
       | trial, lenacapavir was generally well-tolerated and no
       | significant or new safety concerns were identified.
       | 
       | [...]
       | 
       | Gilead expects results in late 2024/early 2025 from the program's
       | other pivotal trial, PURPOSE 2, which is assessing twice-yearly
       | lenacapavir for PrEP among cisgender men who have sex with men,
       | transgender men, transgender women and gender non-binary
       | individuals who have sex with partners assigned male at birth in
       | Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and the
       | United States. "
        
         | levocardia wrote:
         | This is a legitimately amazing result and a huge win against
         | HIV. I hope it replicates in PURPOSE 2. Zero incident cases in
         | an at-risk population is, frankly, fantastic, in a country
         | where prevalence of HIV ranges from 12-27% depending on the
         | province.
        
         | hawk_ wrote:
         | VaaS (Vaccine as a Service) suits Gilead as a business model,
        
         | vfclists wrote:
         | How come they use the phrase "cisgender women and adolescent
         | girls aged 16-25"? Aren't 16 year old females "women"? Do they
         | think the terms "cisgender" is that meaningful to Africans or
         | that the term matters to Africans?
        
           | devman0 wrote:
           | I read that as cisgendered && (women || adolescent girls) &&
           | (16 <= age <= 25). Basically 'cisgendered' and the age range
           | are describing all study participants which which are all
           | either women or adolescent girls which makes sense to me
           | based on how I believe these trials are generally
           | constructed.
        
           | aetherspawn wrote:
           | Well HIV is most common amongst homosexual populations, so it
           | is just clarifying that they gave the drug to straight girls
           | in the first trial.
        
             | viraptor wrote:
             | Cisgender doesn't mean straight. They may be homosexual,
             | just not trans.
        
             | frankvdwaal wrote:
             | It says cisgendered, not straight, though.
        
             | mandevil wrote:
             | This prevalence is true in the US (and most Western
             | countries I think, though not as certain), is definitely
             | not true in Sub-Saharan Africa (where 75% of the world's
             | HIV+ population lives). Women and girls are more likely to
             | have it in Sub-Saharan Africa. See
             | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10126805/
             | estimates that over 60% of all new infections in SSA are in
             | women. Parts of that region the HIV+ prevalence rate is
             | above 5%. That is why they are focused on testing that
             | population in that region, they are the most at risk.
        
       | senordevnyc wrote:
       | Just going by the name, the "Gilead Shot" sounds like the last
       | thing I'd want if I were a woman.
        
         | Rediscover wrote:
         | My thoughts too, biased by a Margaret Atwood novel:
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Handmaid%27s_Tale
        
           | eindiran wrote:
           | The Republic of Gilead is named for the biblical name
           | "Gilead" for a region in Jordan[0]; the shot is presumably
           | named for the Balm of Gilead[1], also named for biblical
           | Gilead.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilead
           | 
           | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balm_of_Gilead
        
             | duskwuff wrote:
             | Gilead is the name of the pharmaceutical company, not the
             | drug.
             | 
             | The trade name of the drug is Sunlenca; the generic name is
             | lenacapavir.
        
               | mikeyouse wrote:
               | And fwiw, the company Gilead is indeed named for the Balm
               | of Gilead.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | Manufacturer names are frequently associated with their
               | products.
               | 
               | e.g. nobody says "did you get Comirnaty or Spikevax?
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | Descovy and Truvada are already more commonly referred to
               | by their marketing names than with Gilead's. Hard to see
               | how this new shot would be different.
        
         | janice1999 wrote:
         | It might be a PR decision to encourage the name to hide the
         | fact Gilead "Profited by Slow-Walking a Promising HIV Therapy".
         | Profit before health.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/22/business/gilead-hiv-drug-...
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | "For most people, experts say, the two tenofovir-based drugs
           | -- the first known as T.D.F., the second called T.A.F. --
           | offer roughly equal risks and benefits."
           | 
           | Do we have an update on the case?
        
       | MrLeap wrote:
       | A childhood friend of mine died of AIDs related complications a
       | few years ago. I hope this saves a lot of people.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | HIV/AIDS dominated my high school years; it was just starting
         | to become known; the first reported US case was in 1981, and in
         | 1983, the disease (AIDS) was traced to the virus (HIV). My
         | biology class had a poster of all the things AIDS could present
         | as (kaposi's sarcoma, etc). At the time HIV was effectively a
         | death sentence and it really affected places like SF heavily.
         | 
         | One of my main motivations in college and grad school was to
         | work in drug discovery, specifically for HIV. At the time
         | (~1995-2000) we were just starting to see positive results from
         | protease inhibitors and reverse transcriptase inhibtors came
         | somewhat later leading to the current "managment of HIV through
         | HART" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management_of_HIV/AIDS
         | 
         | All of this came slowly - decades between significant new
         | technologies/improvements in treatment. many sources of
         | infection such as blood transfusions are now much less risky
         | (people in the 70s and 80s were getting hep C and HIV from
         | blood taken from HIV-positive donors). And the disease presents
         | very differently in the US vs. other areas such as Sub-Saharan
         | africa. But with extensive effort, prevention has gotten better
         | and treatments have gotten much better. If there are truly
         | usable preventatives for at-risk populations, and those
         | medications are affordable, it will be a huge boon to the
         | recipients.
         | 
         | Some interesting things to note:
         | 
         | - there was a lot of controversy about the source of infection
         | and a lot of people used this to criticize gay people and
         | injected drug users.
         | 
         | - one of the world's most famous virologists,
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duesberg actively denied
         | that HIV caused AIDS and instead thought it was transmitted by
         | drug use. Note "Duesberg entered a long dispute with John
         | Maddox, then-editor of the scientific journal Nature, demanding
         | the right to rebut articles that HIV caused AIDS." which I
         | think presages the current arguments about what scientists can
         | say regarding the origins of COVID. The impact of his
         | statements in South Africa was significant. From what I can
         | tell he was completely off base and never made any truly
         | convincing arguments for his position.
         | 
         | - Fauci, of COVID fame, played a big role in getting NIH and
         | the various AIDS community organzations working together and
         | making large improvements to HIV/AIDS treatment. Before that,
         | Fauci was heavily criticized by various LBGTQ orgs (see
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/opinion/anthony-fauci-
         | hiv...) "Larry Kramer, one of the group's founders, wrote an
         | open letter to Dr. Fauci in The Village Voice calling him a
         | murderer and comparing him to the Holocaust organizer Adolf
         | Eichmann." Again, all this presages the later treatment of
         | Fauci by various political groups during COVID. I often think
         | back to Fauci during HIV/AIDS while reflecting on the current
         | situation around COVID and I think we got lucky to find
         | somebody like him, even if he said a few dumb things, and we'll
         | be lucky if any public servants are willing to take up his role
         | in the future.
         | 
         | - modern gene therapy often uses variants on HIV as the vector.
         | That's right: it's so good at getting into cells and modifying
         | the genome, that we use it as the preferred method. it took
         | quite some time before the vectors were made safe enough
         | (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5152689/)
        
           | mrmetanoia wrote:
           | One of my in-laws is a full on Fox news nut, but has a rare
           | condition that he received treatments for as part of an NIH
           | study that did him a world of good and Fauci was one of the
           | doctors that worked on it, as a result the bits of nuttery he
           | didn't buy into were attempts to discredit Fauci or anti-vax
           | stuff. Oddly it didn't pull into question any other beliefs
           | he picked up from that station.
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | >> one of the world's most famous virologists,
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duesberg actively denied
           | that HIV caused AIDS and instead thought it was transmitted
           | by drug use.
           | 
           | I'm curious about his claim that retroviruses (retrovirii?)
           | must be harmless to survive and multiply. What is the
           | mainstream consensus on this?
           | 
           | To be clear: I know next to nothing about viruses (virii? I
           | mean I don't even know how to call them) and I have no idea
           | whether it really supports Peter Duesberg's claims about AIDS
           | in general. I'm just wondering whether he's pointed out an
           | interesting peculiarity of HIV that is not further
           | investigated by others for fear of being accused of
           | denialism.
           | 
           | Scientists can get very like that.
           | 
           | >> (...) the current arguments about what scientists can say
           | regarding the origins of COVID.
           | 
           | It reminded me most about John Ioannidi's polemic against the
           | way COVID was dealt with, rather than its origin. Ioannidis
           | is a leading epidemiologist so he had to be taken seriously,
           | although of course his opinion was rejected by most everyone
           | else.
        
       | musha68k wrote:
       | Amazing. I guess SARS-CoV-2 is much less stable in comparison to
       | HIV?
       | 
       | Higher mutation rate and other shifts vs broadly neutralizing
       | antibodies? Anyways, it would be nice to fully "solve" COVID-19
       | as it's still wreaking havoc somewhat silently (?)
       | 
       | I also wonder when or if we'll see therapeutic vaccines against
       | either of these and more sooner than later?
       | 
       | Each time I only briefly start staring into the abyss that is
       | "wetware" I'm gladly returning to our comparatively trivial
       | (self-inflicted) complexity in the world of software / computing.
        
         | frankus wrote:
         | I'm not sure if taking e.g. Paxlovid as pre-exposure
         | prophylaxis has been studied, but my guess is that the side
         | effects from the drug are worse in the long run than the
         | disease itself (especially if the seriousness can be blunted
         | via vaccination).
         | 
         | Since people don't spontaneously recover from HIV infection,
         | and the PrEP drugs have relatively few side-effects, the
         | tradeoff is more favorable.
        
           | ds_opseeker wrote:
           | In the long run, the side effect of HIV is death due to total
           | collapse of the immune system.
        
           | worstspotgain wrote:
           | Turns out you can do Covid PrEP with just Neosporin in your
           | nose. It works for other pathogens too:
           | 
           | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2319566121
           | 
           | In case you're wondering, this paper is 100% legit, see e.g.
           | the bio for the big-shot author:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akiko_Iwasaki
           | 
           | No clue if this _easy trick_ would induce immune escape if a
           | large number of people started using it. I guess it 's a good
           | time to get in on the ground floor.
        
         | Fomite wrote:
         | HIV is notoriously unstable - RNA viruses don't contain any
         | error checking during replication. Which is one reason HIV
         | drugs, including those one, are almost always used in
         | combination.
        
           | uiberto wrote:
           | coronaviruses are also RNA viruses, fwiw
        
         | worstspotgain wrote:
         | There are several variant-resistant pan-Covid/pan-
         | Sarbecovirus/etc. vaccines under development [1], including one
         | by the US Army [2].
         | 
         | Vaccines are notoriously slow to develop, perfect, and test for
         | safety and efficacy. The original Covid mRNA vaccines were
         | developed at breakneck speeds as far as vaccines go.
         | Unfortunately, much of the funding has since dried up.
         | 
         | In fact, it's HIV that's much harder to develop a vaccine for.
         | HIV vaccine research has been going on for 40 years and hasn't
         | really had any candidates that went beyond "plausible" until
         | recently.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-023-01116-8
         | 
         | [2]
         | https://mrdc.health.mil/index.cfm/media/news_releases/2021/p...
        
         | opprobium wrote:
         | This injection isn't a vaccine, it's an anti-viral drug being
         | used as pre-exposure prophylaxis. The first approval of this
         | approach was in 2012, but using an oral pill with a short half-
         | life taken daily.
         | 
         | That drug is still in use and also highly effective, the new
         | improvement is to provide the same approach with a longer
         | acting injected drug. One reason there has been great interest
         | in this, despite the already effective oral PREP, is that there
         | are thought to be socio-behavior advantages for cases like
         | women in Africa as in this study. For example: the woman does
         | not have to keep a supply of daily pills that a partner can
         | find. Also possibly improved adherence with no missed doses.
         | 
         | The drug itself is not thought to be more biologically
         | effective than the oral drugs, which are basically already at
         | close to 100% effective assuming the patient actually takes
         | them as scheduled.
        
       | Lammy wrote:
       | Relevant Bill Hicks (1989) :)
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxjyg5dTx6k
        
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