[HN Gopher] FBI Stats Show Crime Still Declining, Despite the As...
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FBI Stats Show Crime Still Declining, Despite the Assertions of
Alarmists and
Author : WarOnPrivacy
Score : 36 points
Date : 2024-06-20 17:40 UTC (5 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.techdirt.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.techdirt.com)
| mtnGoat wrote:
| Or people just aren't reporting crime because at this point, in
| many places, it's fruitless.
|
| I know I don't report crime anymore, got robbed in Seattle
| recently, didn't bother calling it in.
| alan-hn wrote:
| Murder is almost always reported and has been on a decline,
| along with general violent crime, since the 90s
| saint_fiasco wrote:
| Make sure to also add up attempted murders, assaults with
| deadly weapon and things like that.
|
| If you don't, every time medicine improves, it will look like
| people are less murderous. In reality the victims might just
| have access to better hospitals.
| alan-hn wrote:
| That is why I mentioned "general violent crime"
| saint_fiasco wrote:
| But the reason you mentioned murder in the first place is
| that, unlike general violent crime, it always gets
| reported.
|
| So it turns out that both measures are kind of hard to
| use, for different reasons.
|
| Personally, that's no reason to be solipsistic about it.
| I can still form coherent ideas about whether or not
| there is more crime than usual. But it does leave enough
| wiggle room for people to lie about the issue for
| political reasons, in whichever direction you least
| prefer.
| thematt wrote:
| Not true, even for murder stats. It's perfectly reasonable to
| challenge the accuracy of the numbers. The FBI and NYC use
| the same definitions for murder and starting in 2023 and 2024
| their numbers haven't matched. The FBI is reporting -13%
| fewer murders in 2023 than the NYPD recorded and -47% fewer
| murders so far in 2024.
|
| If you look at absolute numbers, the NYPD is recording year
| over year increases in major violent felonies whereas the FBI
| is saying there are year over year decreases.
| alan-hn wrote:
| As I stated elsewhere, this is very recent and does not
| negate the overall downward trend happening since the 90s
| ljsprague wrote:
| What about the trend since BLM gained prominence i.e.
| circa May 25, 2020?
| alan-hn wrote:
| You mean since COVID when people lost their jobs? Kind of
| a self report to associate it with BLM instead of the
| obvious and most studied answer: poverty
| squigz wrote:
| What does BLM have to do with it?
| LUmBULtERA wrote:
| I suggest you report it. Obviously it's not fruitless, because
| it will be useful for crime stats.
| stcroixx wrote:
| There's no requirement to report stats to the FBI and several
| municipalities and local sheriff's have stopped. The stats
| the FBI have are not a very accurate picture of reality.
| alan-hn wrote:
| That's only the last two years and does not negate over two
| decades of data showing a downward trend
| Kye wrote:
| When was it ever fruitful? They always just showed up for the
| report for insurance, if that.
| Dig1t wrote:
| When there was a chance that police would actually
| investigate and try to do something. Right now the cops won't
| even show up unless property crime is > $1000 in most cities.
|
| Even if they are caught they are usually released without
| bail and have no need to ever show up for court after that.
|
| It wasn't always this way, this is a recent change.
| alan-hn wrote:
| My entire life police haven't done shit. I'm in my mid 30s
| from the midwest
| Kye wrote:
| Same. Called them a few times when I was younger. Never
| showed up, stopped bothering. The fire department, on the
| other hand, was 100% reliable despite having a fraction
| of the funding.
| alan-hn wrote:
| This isn't surprising, fox news and other news networks barrage
| their viewers with crime reports constantly telling them crime is
| on the rise, then when this report came out they said "but
| doesn't it _feel_ like crime is on the rise? "
|
| Like yea cause you barrage your viewers with a torrent of fear
| mongering nonsense
| Dig1t wrote:
| It's not only Fox News, one of my favorite YouTubers who just
| drives around the country filming things, no political content
| whatsoever, recently took a trip to Oakland and couldn't help
| but comment on how disgusting the city has become and how crime
| has skyrocketed. He even took a trip to the infamous In N Out
| Burger and Taco Bell which have closed their indoor dining due
| to crime.
| alan-hn wrote:
| I guess something else to note is that a lot of people will
| perceive people on the street with mental health issues or
| experiencing homelessness as "crime"
|
| During the pandemic less working people were out on the
| streets making the proportion of homeless people higher, so
| as people start going back to work there is a change in the
| proportion and some people (incorrectly) equate that to an
| increase in crime
| lazide wrote:
| Also, some places tend to not take reports anymore for the
| most common crimes - or people just stop trying to report
| them.
|
| That tends to happen with the problem is overwhelming,
| like... Oakland.
| banish-m4 wrote:
| Dumb people are looking for scapegoat minorities and factors
| to rationalize their discontent when they should be blaming
| the very rich for lobbying against their interests.
| salemh wrote:
| 4 Reasons We Should Worry About Missing Crime Data
| https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rate...
|
| _Then it all changed in 2021. In an effort to fully modernize
| the system, the FBI stopped taking data from the old summary
| system and only accepted data through the new system. Thousands
| of police agencies fell through the cracks because they didn't
| catch up with the changes on time._
|
| _More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the
| FBI's national crime data last year, representing nearly one-
| third of the nation's 18,000 police agencies. This means a
| quarter of the U.S. population wasn 't represented in the federal
| crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project's
| analysis._
|
| _Of the 19 biggest law enforcement agencies -- each of which
| police more than 1 million people -- seven were missing from the
| FBI's 2022 crime data. The missing agencies include the LAPD, the
| NYPD, and police departments in Phoenix, San Jose and New York 's
| Suffolk County._
| datahack wrote:
| Kinda worth noting that crime _reporting_ to the FBI is a bit
| messed up.
|
| https://stateline.org/2023/10/27/politicians-love-to-cite-cr...
|
| So, all the discussion of stats tends to get washed if the
| national crime statistics don't include the data from the areas
| they are reporting on.
| alan-hn wrote:
| That doesn't negate the trend of the past two decades of
| decreasing crime rates, that report is from 2022 and 71% is not
| big enough for me to think that is has a massive impact on
| recent numbers. You can also go on violent crime and murder
| which is almost always reported
| hackernewds wrote:
| When crime is not enforced, the burden of reporting crime is
| not borne. It is a faux pas that SF has slyly adopted
| exabrial wrote:
| Sadly, my vehicle has been broken into more times in the last two
| years than all previous years combined.
| banish-m4 wrote:
| Where you murdered lately? Press 1 if yes.
| oicu812 wrote:
| As noted in the article: crime is down with 72% of the law
| enforcement agencies reporting. No mention of which agencies have
| not reported yet (Chicago, Baltimore, other inner city high-crime
| areas?)
|
| From the FBI, the actual numbers will not be released: "The
| number of incidents will be publicly released when 80 percent
| participation levels are met."
|
| This feels like a heavily biased article in an election year.
| hughesjj wrote:
| ....what?
|
| I mean, as you noted, the article says that 72% of reporting
| agencies saw a decrease. That's going to be true independent of
| any bias of the outstanding/non-reporting population. I don't
| see how your point is meaningful.
|
| I also disagree that the article was 'heavily biased', given it
| spent roughly half its length talking about the issues with the
| FBI datasets, and that it's written in response to an espoused
| narrative that isn't even congruent with the data we _do_ have.
| zafka wrote:
| While it is usually great politics to scream that "our side" will
| reduce crime by being tougher (both side of the aisle take part
| in this) Overwhelming evidence shows the rise and fall of violent
| ( and other) crime based on lead in the environment.
| https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/01/03/how-lead-c...
| Unfortunately, unscrupulous types realized how much money could
| be made from imprisoning people and billing both them and the
| government - there is now a large lobby that works to push the
| status quo and even to increase the number of prisoners. ( See
| immigration policy)
| alan-hn wrote:
| Not just lead but a well studied mechanism of crime is simply
| poverty.
|
| The more poverty, the more crime. Crime rates are very highly
| associated with material conditions
| ein0p wrote:
| How to lie with statistics, election year edition.
| ChrisArchitect wrote:
| Actual report/article: https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-
| releases/fbi-releases-2024-qu...
| ChrisArchitect wrote:
| Related from a few months ago:
|
| _The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows_
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40229307
| JohnMakin wrote:
| A little anecdotal but I have lived in the heart of a downtown
| area (not a major city but decent population) for 25 years now,
| and we recently cut some funding for the local PD, which was very
| politically heated due to the Police Chief's city hall
| connections.
|
| What happened afterward was immediately noticeable - the police
| force seems to have very little interest in doing their jobs ever
| since then. The response time for a call has gone way up, and
| sometimes they do not even show up at all. On my particular
| street, which is nestled in a high-ish crime area, we formed a
| neighborhood watch and have a police liason we speak to but most
| residents are completely unwilling to call the police anymore
| because it is super pointless and exasperating. My breaking point
| was when I caught a mail thief red handed, my mail still sticking
| out of his bag, and flagged down a cop that happened to be
| nearby. They refused to even listen to me and the guy just walked
| away. So, part of me wonders if the city's crime stats have
| "dropped" due to people just giving up on reporting crimes.
|
| Of course this is super difficult to prove and I don't think it's
| a national trend but definitely something I and my neighbors have
| observed in my city.
| klyrs wrote:
| I grew up in a rough neighborhood in the 80s, about a mile away
| from the nearest precinct. We had regular shootings, and my
| parents complain that the police would wait approximately 30
| minutes before driving the 2 minutes from the precinct to the
| scene of the shooting. So the indifference you're describing is
| nothing new to me. But neither is the notion of police
| departments juicing their stats.
| pm90 wrote:
| Serious crimes like Murder can't be ignored. They might take
| their time but they have to report it.
| godzillafarts wrote:
| If you find your interest piqued by this article and want to dive
| a little bit deeper into specific examples, I highly recommend
| reading Factfulness by Hans Rosling.
|
| Yes, there are problems with crime reporting. Yes, violent crimes
| have been on a downward trend since the 1990s. Things can be both
| bad and getting better at the same time.
| elzbardico wrote:
| Senile leaders? Check.
|
| Irrational spending on military? Check.
|
| Rampant Censorship? Check.
|
| Imprisoning political opponents? Check.
|
| Media is basically State Propaganda? Check.
|
| Widespread Corruption and Incompetence? Check.
|
| --Completely bogus statistics that gaslight people seeing the
| reality? CHECK!!!!
|
| It's offical Americans! You are living on the Soviet Union.
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(page generated 2024-06-20 23:01 UTC)