[HN Gopher] Rotation curves: still flat after a million light-years
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Rotation curves: still flat after a million light-years
        
       Author : xqcgrek2
       Score  : 95 points
       Date   : 2024-06-20 11:04 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (tritonstation.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (tritonstation.com)
        
       | jameskilton wrote:
       | For those who aren't sure what Rotation curves are: it's the
       | observation that the orbits of stars in galaxies around said
       | galaxy's center do not slow down the further away from the center
       | they are. In fact some even rotate faster the further out you
       | get!
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy_rotation_curve
        
         | ricksunny wrote:
         | I would settle for achieving intuition or even credible
         | sources'acknowledgment in popular press on just what point in
         | space is being orbited when the satellite is millions of LY (or
         | 8 light minutes :) ) out from the massive object (which is
         | translating at a measurable fraction of c ) it is orbiting.
        
           | tony69 wrote:
           | If it's translating at constant velocity, the satellite is
           | orbiting the point in space where the object actually is.
           | There is no "lag", gravity points to where the center is now,
           | not where it was 8 minutes ago.
        
           | jerf wrote:
           | I can't search it up now, but I have seen a derivation that
           | if you work all the way through the math, it turns out your
           | intuition is wrong and in the case of something like a planet
           | orbiting a star, if the star is moving at a reasonably
           | constant speed (ignoring all the relativity details around
           | how to define that for now) it turns out that the planet
           | actually will effectively orbit around the "current" position
           | of the star, even though gravity only travels at the speed of
           | light [1]. Our naive expectation that it would orbit only
           | where it sees the star in the sky right now fails to account
           | for some additional correction terms that show up when you
           | take the dynamics of the situation into account, and it
           | happens to come out in what you may think of as a coincidence
           | to "correcting" the point actually being orbited to what is
           | also the current position of the star. (Technically I think
           | it is still off, but galactic orbits are very, very slow, so
           | the errors introduced by them are also very very small.) You
           | may recall in physics class how the difficulty of
           | understanding situations amped up once you move from statics
           | to dynamics, especially if you took a real calculus-based
           | version of it. In much the same way that even if you use
           | Newtonian gravity, simply knowing the formula may still leave
           | you surprised at quite a lot of what can happen in orbital
           | mechanics.
           | 
           | If the star suddenly disappeared or zoomed off in another
           | direction, it would be a light-speed delay before the planet
           | "noticed" anything, but that generally does not happen,
           | obviously.
           | 
           | I expect the derivation I saw would not be valid for orbits
           | involving speeds close to c, but I _would_ expect the general
           | observation that the effective center of the orbit is in fact
           | not the time-delayed location would still hold.
           | 
           | [1]: Expected for a long time, but fairly recently
           | observationally proved:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa_hLtPIE1s
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | The same thing happens in electric fields. The electric
             | field of a uniformly-moving charge points to where it is,
             | not to where it was when the light was emitted from it that
             | is now reaching the observer measuring the electric field.
        
         | DonnyV wrote:
         | Thank you for this! I was confused what they meant by Rotation
         | curve.
        
       | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
       | A really interesting result. On it's own, it doesn't destroy dark
       | matter as a theory, but it's putting quite a large dent in it.
       | 
       | Obviously will need additional work and review, it's only one
       | paper. Maybe there are mistakes or factors not fully considered.
       | 
       | There have been a number of other papers recently on measuring
       | wide binaries. Different papers claimed different results on
       | these.
       | 
       | Still, it's certainly something that merits a lot more attention.
       | We may be looking at needing some new theory of gravity (maybe
       | not MOND, but something other than dark matter).
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | > A really interesting result. On it's own, it doesn't destroy
         | dark matter as a theory
         | 
         | It refutes LCDM though. No DM halos could be responsible for
         | this behaviour this far out. And this isn't the first time LCDM
         | has been refuted by evidence before they tweaked it with yet
         | more parameters/epicycles to make it fit.
         | 
         | It's been clear for awhile now that neither particle dark
         | matter nor MOND are adequate explanations for observations.
         | MOND clearly matches some data better and with fewer parameters
         | (like this), and DM others, like cluster-scale lensing. New
         | thinking is needed, and hopefully this paper will surprise
         | people into taking MOND-like approaches a little more
         | seriously.
        
           | XorNot wrote:
           | Presuming the behavior is real and not an artifact of the
           | model. This is a statistical technique, needing specially
           | selected targets in order to be observed reliably - and also
           | assuming those targets themselves are typical.
           | 
           | There's plenty of observations which can accidentally vanish
           | because of subtle problems with assumptions, so declaring a
           | total refutation is beyond premature.
           | 
           | Like to wit, if MOND is real then you've really got to
           | explain how sometimes it also selectively just bails out on
           | some galaxies apparently[1].
           | 
           | I'm tired of people trotting out "epicycles" to attack
           | theories they don't like: you're gonna be adding a lot of
           | those to get a MOND which can explain all the data as well
           | (which is to say, it's a trite insult and not useful
           | argument).
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NGC_1052-DF2
        
             | throwawaymaths wrote:
             | Iirc, the udg makes sense if the distance to it is off by
             | something like 25% and the orientation of rotation is off
             | by a bit. Those parameters are very hard to measure in
             | UDGs.
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | > I'm tired of people trotting out "epicycles" to attack
             | theories they don't like
             | 
             | That's disingenuous. LCDM has a long history of failing to
             | successfully predict later observations and adding
             | parameters to fit the data, where MOND has made many
             | successful _a priori_ predictions without any added
             | parameters since the 1980s. This is not just a matter of
             | not liking something, successful predictions vs. post-hoc
             | curve fitting strikes at the very core of what it means to
             | be a good scientific theory. See:
             | 
             | From Galactic Bars to the Hubble Tension: Weighing Up the
             | Astrophysical Evidence for Milgromian Gravity,
             | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/14/7/1331
             | 
             | As I said, neither approach is fully satisfactory, and we
             | need new thinking about this problem.
        
         | l33tman wrote:
         | Consider also that the author of the linked blog post seems to
         | be a (pretty strong) advocate for MOND, it did read as somewhat
         | biased
        
           | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
           | He is a bit more nuanced than that, I've been reading the
           | blog for quite some time.
           | 
           | He has pointed out areas where MOND falls short in other
           | posts, but it is true that he thinks that LCDM has some
           | serious flaws, and that MOND like theories have a better
           | predictive record.
        
       | Maro wrote:
       | Quick explanation:
       | 
       | A galaxy (elliptic, or spiral) is made out of billions of stars,
       | like our sun.
       | 
       | These stars rotate around the center of the galaxy (very slowly,
       | think millions of years for 1 rotation).
       | 
       | A rotation curve measures the velocity of stars as a function of
       | distance from the center of the galaxy.
       | 
       | Newtonian physics (or Einstein's GR) says that the rotation curve
       | should decay with distance, ie. with greater distance the stars'
       | velocity should go down --- assuming the matter in the galaxy is
       | the visible matter that we see, ie. the stars (which shine
       | light).
       | 
       | The problem is, there is a rich set of observational data, from
       | many different experiments, telescopes, and methodologies that
       | show that the rotational curve is in fact flat, it does not
       | decay.
       | 
       | There are 2 big competing theories to explain this discrepancy:
       | 
       | 1. Assume that there is a lot of unseen, non-shining, ie. Dark
       | Matter (DM) in the galaxies (also ours). If you put the
       | appropriate amount of dark matter in there, with the right
       | distribution, you can reproduce the observed rotational curve.
       | There are also other places is astrophysics/cosmology where
       | having dark matter (specifically Cold Dark Matter, CDM, where
       | cold just means "slowly moving") is useful. The biggest example
       | is to explain the history of the Universe and the observed
       | Hubble-constant. In fact the standard model of cosmology is
       | called lCDM, CDM for Cold Dark Matter (l for the cosmological
       | constant, currently modeled as Dark Energy, not relevant for this
       | discussion).
       | 
       | 2. Assume that Newton was wrong and gravity is not exactly 1/r^2
       | --- this is called MOND, Modified Newtonian Dynamics. This way
       | you can also reproduce the observed rotation curves. This is much
       | less popular, because: (i) physicsts don't want to give up the
       | beautiful and geometric simplicity of 1/r^2 (ii) Dark Matter is
       | also useful for solving other discrepancies in
       | astrophysics/cosmology.
       | 
       | What this article is saying is that, even in the first Dark
       | Matter model, per the model DM distributions inside galaxies that
       | also work with all the other places where DM is used to explain
       | something (eg. in cosmology), at some distance from the center,
       | the dark matter bubble has an edge and stops --- and then the
       | velocities should finally break down. However, these latest
       | observations are showing that the velocities remain constant even
       | beyond the modeled/assumed DM bubbles. This is an additional e
       | argument in favor of MOND, and science proceeds.
        
         | merek wrote:
         | Fantastic explanation, thank you.
         | 
         | For a more detailed description of the Milky Way's rotation
         | curve, this is a brief segment from David Butler's How Far Away
         | Is It video series (which I highly recommend):
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/uVxrsJ5lZlQ?si=ZwpBDpAvTV8AALke&t=1890
        
         | xeonmc wrote:
         | What falloff function will create an exactly flat curve? G ~
         | 1/r instead of 1/r^2 ?
         | 
         | What if gravity has non-scalar components?
        
           | canjobear wrote:
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensor%E2%80%93vector%E2%80%.
           | ..
           | 
           | The extra components would have energy and function as Dark
           | Matter.
        
         | jprete wrote:
         | I'm not a physicist but 1/r^2 strikes me as conceptually very
         | important, because it's the relative contribution of any fixed
         | area of spherical surface to the total area of that surface. So
         | the total strength of gravitational field emanating from a
         | particular object, at a given distance from that object, is a
         | constant.
         | 
         | It's somewhat weird to think of the total gravitational "force
         | field" _increasing_ in magnitude with distance. Decreasing,
         | sure. Increasing? That makes no sense. Certainly not at a large
         | enough function of distance for the rotational curve to be
         | _flat_. That's got to be some kind of wonky power term over
         | distance which implies potential energy from the field goes up
         | with distance as well.
         | 
         | As above, I'm not a physicist, but a linear rotational curve
         | breaks every intuition I've ever gleaned from physics about the
         | nature of what's really going on with relativity, particle
         | mediation of forces, or even the concept of a field.
         | 
         | Maybe it means spacetime curvature is way higher than we think.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | > spacetime curvature is way higher than we think.
           | 
           | You mean way weirder.
           | 
           | Remember 1/r^2 does not work quite right for, e.g. mercury.
        
           | Avshalom wrote:
           | Well the general solution is to invent a field with force
           | mediating particles that have the exact same properties as
           | dark matter but insist it's not dark matter.
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | The strong force increases with distance, fwiw.
        
           | PuffinBlue wrote:
           | Maybe not so weird if gravity isn't the curvature of
           | spacetime but a symptom of there being either more or less of
           | it, and mass _creates_ spacetime.
           | 
           | Replace the highly curved spacetime region close to a
           | blackhole with the idea that huge amount of spacetime is
           | being created by the mass of the blackhole, so there is more
           | spacetime near the blackhole.
           | 
           | The more spacetime being created and 'flowing outwards' away
           | from the mass, the faster the apparent 'velocity' of an
           | object through that region of spacetime ner the blackhole
           | (and have this work out that the spacial component handles
           | the physical motion and time slows down to compensate - just
           | like it does in highly curved spacetime), and consequently
           | the slower it moves relative to an external observer.
           | 
           | Areas further from mass see much more 'dilute' spacetime
           | (whatever the heck that means) and travel with relative
           | slower spacial velocity but faster in time, so it _appears_
           | to be travelling faster up. This would be doubly obvious at
           | the scale of galaxies.
           | 
           | I think this ridiculousness would rely on the relativity of
           | simultaneity in rather a large way!
           | 
           | The other interesting thing is, if mass does create spacetime
           | then pockets of mass like galaxies should move away from each
           | other faster and faster as they make more of it in between
           | themselves.
           | 
           | (NOTE - this is just a silly thought experiment, don't take
           | it seriously)
        
             | MilStdJunkie wrote:
             | I don't think this sounds silly at all. Virtually
             | everywhere we look in cosmology the last decade or so, you
             | get a sensation of _things unseen_. Like we 're looking at
             | one of those optical illusions that change shape when you
             | cover your left eye, or like the McGurk Effect, when your
             | audio perception shifts completely because you can see
             | someone's lips.
             | 
             | Another element that's being discussed is, like with mass
             | and spacetime, that the spatial dimensions themselves are
             | emergent phenomenon arising from bulk entanglement. Sean
             | Carrol has talked about it a fair amount, and it's been
             | surfing around maybe harder than it would ordinarily,
             | because it provides some edge cases that are, at least
             | conceivably, testable without solar-system-sized
             | accelerators or a DeLorean to the beginning of the cosmos.
             | It's an evocative thought. In one interpretation of this,
             | Double Slit restricts many of the spatial dimensions,
             | resulting in a particle that might seem to be in different
             | places, but which is, in some respects, the same particle.
             | Another interesting notion is that singularities, in some
             | dimensions, might be the same place.
             | 
             | Combined with your notion, it almost re-frames mass as -
             | forgive me for getting poetic here - a _measure of fate_.
             | How much does _this_ resist doing _that_?
        
             | jiggawatts wrote:
             | It's not at all silly. There's some nice visualisations[1]
             | of GR in YouTube that _look_ like space is being swallowed
             | up by matter.
             | 
             | A toy model I like to use in my mind is that matter absorbs
             | spacetime. It is _literally_ sucked in!
             | 
             | A possible extension of this model is that the tension
             | introduced in the vacuum causes it to stretch out. That
             | could potentially explain the non-r^2 terms in galactic
             | rotation curves.
             | 
             | [1] https://youtu.be/DYq774z4dws?si=6vDWZ8jPzgjxSBb1
        
         | ryandrake wrote:
         | > (i) physicsts don't want to give up the beautiful and
         | geometric simplicity of 1/r^2
         | 
         | Not a physicist here, so maybe this is a naive question: but is
         | this really something that they care about? Why does a formula
         | describing some physical principle have to beautiful and
         | simple? Aren't we supposed to observe reality and _then_ come
         | up with the math? Rather than start with a  "known true"
         | equation and add factors and parameters it as more and more
         | observations call the equation into question? Who's in charge
         | of the direction physics proceeds? The observing scientists or
         | the mathematicians?
        
           | xeonmc wrote:
           | 1/r^2 directly comes from how much area an object spans your
           | field of view vs how far away it is. To a paraxial
           | approximation, of course.
        
           | wyager wrote:
           | A general principle of science is that simpler explanations
           | are more likely. Rule-of-thumb described by Occam's razor,
           | formalized by concepts like Solomonoff induction. Rules like
           | 1/r^2, being simple, are assigned a higher prior probability.
           | 
           | This makes sense because otherwise you waste a bunch of time
           | on overfitted theories.
        
           | jlokier wrote:
           | It's not about the formula. The formula comes from the
           | geometry.
           | 
           | 1/r^2 falls out as the formula, starting from the geometry of
           | "flux" and "field lines", along with "conservation of flux",
           | in 3d space.
           | 
           | That's the idea that the force acts like something that's
           | radiated in all directions, that _doesn 't fade_ with
           | distance, instead it just _spreads out_ so it seems weaker at
           | individual points. The amount of spreading out, if it 's
           | uniform in 3d, turns out to be exactly 1/r^2.
           | 
           | You get the same 1/r^2 if you measure the flow of water in a
           | 3d volume with a point source of water in the centre, or
           | electric current in a 3d block of metal with a point source
           | of electric current in the centre. (In both cases, presumably
           | through a thin pipe or cable to the centre).
           | 
           | In 2d space, you get a different formula from the geometry,
           | 1/r. If you see a force, or flow, reducing by 1/r^2 in a
           | system you thought was 2d, you might ask "is there a third
           | dimension involved here which I haven't accounted for?"
           | 
           | In 1d, the force or flow doesn't reduce with distance. For
           | example, current in an electrical wire is the same all along
           | the wire.
           | 
           | And if you see 1/r^3 in 3d, you might speculate about a
           | hidden fourth dimension to explain it.
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | They will 100% replace 1/r^2 in an instant if they find
           | something else that matches results better.
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | I don't think history bears this out. "Science progresses
             | one funeral at a time", as they say.
        
         | dameyawn wrote:
         | Are you aware of any visuals that show what the density
         | distribution of DM looks like to fix the expected the rotation
         | curves for some example galaxies?
        
           | Maro wrote:
           | Google images: dark matter halo
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | DM distribution is different for every single galaxy, and so
           | can only be fit to the galaxy's rotation curve after
           | observing it. In contrast, MOND successfully predicts
           | rotation curves a priori using only the visible matter.
        
         | joshjje wrote:
         | For 1/r^2, wouldn't curved spacetime mess that up? Not sure how
         | you would calculate say a moon or other things in between.
        
           | hwc wrote:
           | it _does_ mess it up, but near the gravitational source, not
           | way out like the problems with the galactic gravity.
        
         | yongjik wrote:
         | > physicsts don't want to give up the beautiful and geometric
         | simplicity of 1/r^2
         | 
         | Eh, just like MOND proponents don't want to give up the
         | beautiful simplicity of "If something is attracting me
         | gravitationally I'd better see it!"
         | 
         | When you think about it, there's no _a priori_ reason why a
         | particle with mass should interact with any other force. We 'd
         | just like to assume it because it seems "simpler" that way.
        
           | Filligree wrote:
           | Nor that there should be just one family of interconnected
           | fields. We've got, what, two dozen or so?
           | 
           | Some affect each other, some don't. You can create a graph
           | from that, and you get one that's dense in places but have
           | some nearly disconnected regions. Why not a graph with actual
           | disjoint subgraphs? We'd only be able to tell through
           | gravity.
        
         | infogulch wrote:
         | It has to drop off at some point otherwise it would affect
         | other galaxies...
        
         | Supermancho wrote:
         | > If you put the appropriate amount of dark matter in there,
         | with the right distribution, you can reproduce the observed
         | rotational curve.
         | 
         | What is the "right distribution"? If it's not roughly uniform,
         | it's unlikely to result in a uniform flatness of rotation
         | curves, across the distances in the galaxy. This seems almost
         | impossible when accounting for clustering within the galaxy. I
         | would believe such a uniform distribution of DM would be
         | possible, if Dark Matter is something that exists/acts
         | differently than matter. For example, if there were space-time
         | bumps that form. Small bubbled/hilled spacetime is created in
         | reaction to masses traversing it? ie the classic ball on a
         | sheet, except it behaves more like a liquid than a sheet.
         | 
         | This feels like a blow to Dark Matter theories, regardless.
        
       | burnte wrote:
       | "MOND predictions keep being corroborated, yet the community
       | persists in ignoring its implications, even in terms of dark
       | matter. It's gotta be telling us something."
       | 
       | No, it doesn't. MOND falls apart in every single theory they put
       | forth. The fact that this happens without fail should lead one to
       | understand the answer probably lies elsewhere than MOND.
        
         | kurthr wrote:
         | It's not like MOND (or even dark matter) are even single
         | theories with a fixed set of predictions. They are groups of
         | competing ever evolving theories. I don't understand the need
         | to believe one over the other as a predictive tool without some
         | conclusive evidence. If you're not the astronomer who makes
         | that measurement (or explains it), it just feels like galactic
         | sports betting.
        
         | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
         | MOND successfully predicts many things we observe that DM fails
         | to, or that requires special tuning for DM to fit observations
         | (which is not prediction). DM actually has quite a poor
         | predictive record, even if it can be made to fit observation.
         | 
         | MOND as a theory is probably not correct. It's not relativistic
         | for a start, although I believe there are other modified
         | gravity theories that are.
        
         | throwawaymaths wrote:
         | MOND explains (discovered before Mond, but the Mond equations
         | unexpectedly fit):
         | 
         | Tully fisher relation
         | 
         | Renzos rule
         | 
         | MOND predicted (these were observed _after_ mond predicted it):
         | 
         | External field effect
         | 
         | Keplerian descent in milky way
         | 
         | Early galaxies after the big bang
         | 
         | Consistently "No dark matter found" in elliptical and
         | lenticular galaxies
        
         | shiandow wrote:
         | I'm getting interested now, the comments have alleged several
         | predictions MOND made. On the other hand I'm pretty sure the
         | evidence for dark matter is pretty strong as well (I believe
         | there are several ways to calculate the amount of dark matter,
         | all of which agree).
         | 
         | Can you give an example of MOND falling apart? One that
         | requires so much fine-tuning that it cannot be adequately
         | explained, or one requiring a violation of one of the more
         | fundamental laws of physics?
        
           | Filligree wrote:
           | The Bullet galaxy.
        
           | XorNot wrote:
           | For one thing MOND doesn't actually appear to eliminate the
           | need for dark matter[1]. It gets rid of ~80% of the missing
           | mass requirement, but not all of it. Whereas pure DM can just
           | eliminate MOND.
           | 
           | Then you've got the "Bullet Cluster"[2] - where two colliding
           | galaxies have had their observable and dark matter masses
           | apparently separated. MOND can't explain this one without a
           | lot of tweaking, but it's pretty trivial for DM:
           | electromagnetically interacting matter is "sticky" where as
           | gravity only matter isn't. The Bullet Cluster shows a galaxy
           | shaped blob of gravitational lensing exactly where you'd
           | expect it to be if a bunch of non-interacting matter had
           | flown through each other, whereas the electromagnetic matter
           | has interacted and re-shaped.
           | 
           | NGC 1052-DF2[3] and NGC 1052-DF4 are both ultra-diffuse
           | galaxies which have no, or _very_ little dark matter. That
           | is, they appear to have normal galactic rotation curves fully
           | explained by their observed visible mass. This works totally
           | fine for DM existing (it 's a problem for lambda-CDM though
           | because it's not clear how they could've formed without dark
           | matter, but I mean - we also don't yet know how black holes
           | actually manage to ever merge either yet we do observe them
           | too). This one always seems like a problem to me: MOND
           | proposes a new universal principle of matter, then suddenly
           | we have some matter where it's not doing that.
           | 
           | The theoretical problems[4] are somewhat beyond me, but they
           | get well into issues with violating relativity and that's a
           | big one: relativity is stupidly, reliably accurate under
           | every single test we put it through, to absurd levels of
           | precision. Build a better instrument, you can just dial in
           | your precision and get the answer out ahead of time before
           | you launch the satellite which is testing it. Also without
           | careful adjustment you get violations of conservation of
           | momentum (conversely, if MOND is real this would be handy
           | because maybe it means we can reactionless spacedrives).
           | 
           | It's worth noting that none of this is implicitly fatal.
           | lambda-CDM could be wrong, a MOND variant could be right. But
           | a list of convenient things MOND explains easily doesn't
           | escape the need to also include the things it _can 't_ - and
           | appeals to the idea that DM is being "tweaked" to match
           | observations unnaturally ignores the fact that MOND has to
           | have the same thing done to it to fix within cosmology.
           | 
           | [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.7525
           | 
           | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullet_Cluster
           | 
           | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NGC_1052-DF2
           | 
           | [4] https://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0104435
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | > Then you've got the "Bullet Cluster"[2] - where two
             | colliding galaxies have had their observable and dark
             | matter masses apparently separated. MOND can't explain this
             | one without a lot of tweaking
             | 
             | The bullet cluster is so over-played as a refutation of
             | MOND. "A lot of tweaking" basically reduces to adding
             | sterile neutrinos, as one possible solution. All galactic
             | clusters have issues in both MOND and LCDM, the bullet
             | cluster was nothing new when it was discovered, it was just
             | visually dramatic because they could image the
             | gravitational lensing.
             | 
             | > but it's pretty trivial for DM: electromagnetically
             | interacting matter is "sticky" where as gravity only matter
             | isn't.
             | 
             | Actually LCDM can't explain the bullet cluster either:
             | 
             | https://tritonstation.com/2024/02/06/clusters-of-galaxies-
             | ru...
             | 
             | As always, MOND and LCDM appear to just trade off one set
             | of issues for other equally problematic set of issues.
             | Neither is favoured very strongly by the sum of evidence.
             | Physicists have just gotten in the habit of ignoring all of
             | the problems with LCDM and consider even trivial problems
             | with MOND to be fatal.
             | 
             | > relativity is stupidly, reliably accurate under every
             | single test we put it through, to absurd levels of
             | precision
             | 
             | Those precise tests do not extend to galactic scales, which
             | is exactly where the problems appear. It would be nice if
             | our existing theory worked across all scales, but that
             | doesn't mean it must.
        
               | isthatafact wrote:
               | > "The bullet cluster is so over-played as a refutation
               | of MOND. "A lot of tweaking" basically reduces to adding
               | sterile neutrinos, as one possible solution."
               | 
               | If MOND requires "dark matter" to explain the bullet
               | cluster, then what is the appeal of MOND?
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | Read the article this thread is about. Particle DM is not
               | sufficient to explain all observations without extreme
               | contortions that make MOND seem more reasonable. Also,
               | MOND predictions made decades ago keep being validated.
               | Why does this keep happening if there's nothing to MOND?
               | 
               | Finally, as I said, particle DM can't fully explain the
               | Bullet Cluster either. The evidence is screaming in our
               | faces that we need better thinking here.
        
               | isthatafact wrote:
               | > Read the article this thread is about.
               | 
               | It is one brand new paper. I am skeptical. Rotation
               | curves are perfectly flat out to whatever arbitrary
               | distance that they happen to be able to measure? I am
               | very skeptical.
               | 
               | > "particle DM can't fully explain the Bullet Cluster
               | either."
               | 
               | According to one scientist, who happens to be the same
               | scientist claiming that particle DM cannot explain
               | rotation curves. I will not check every claim, but the
               | bullet cluster collision speed "problem" is readily
               | explained in the reference in the wikipedia article:
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.7438
               | 
               | The broader point is that every time MOND has claimed to
               | refute dark matter so far, the refutation has been
               | refuted, so I will wait to see the outcome of this new
               | claim.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | > The broader point is that every time MOND has claimed
               | to refute dark matter so far, the refutation has been
               | refuted,
               | 
               | By adding more epicycles to LCDM. I'll leave it to you to
               | decide when to call shenanigans on that, but it's been
               | going on for 30+ years now.
        
               | isthatafact wrote:
               | I am no expert, but I do not follow. Nothing was added to
               | the LCDM model there, so using the epicycle fallacy does
               | not help the discussion.
               | 
               | The research was simply done again with better accuracy.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | I wasn't referring to the bullet cluster specifically,
               | but this obsession with the bullet cluster is typical of
               | the confirmation bias in this field: hyperfocus on what
               | confirms bias and ignore the countervailing evidence. The
               | past 30+ years have seen many "corrections" to get LCDM
               | to fit observations it did not predict [1]. Clusters in
               | general pose challenges to both MOND and LCDM for
               | different reasons [2,3], but LCDM's typically get ignored
               | and MOND's treated as a fatal blow. As I said, neither
               | theory is fully satisfactory, but it's clear that
               | research on these questions is fairly one-sided.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/14/7/1331
               | 
               | [2] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/
               | ace62a
               | 
               | [3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S13
               | 8764732...
        
             | tyn_peddler wrote:
             | Wikipedia's bullet cluster article is written in a very
             | misleading way. The bullet cluster is not a hard problem
             | for MOND since regular baryonic gas easily explains the
             | lensing. Working out the bullet cluster with LambdaCDM
             | actually took quite a bit longer because there were
             | problems in the initial data set that took astronomers 10
             | years to work out. In short, the bullet cluster doesn't
             | "disprove" MOND anymore than it "proves" LambdaCDM.
             | 
             | NGC 1052-DF2 is as big a problem for LambdaCDM as it is for
             | MOND. LambdaCDM requires dark matter for galaxy formation.
             | Which means either LambdaCDM is wrong about how galaxies
             | form, or there was some event (of which we currently lack
             | evidence) that removed it. As for MOND, it's possible that
             | actually doing the math may show that this galaxy is not
             | particularly weird. There's aren't many folks fluent in
             | MOND, so work on these kinds of issues tends to lag their
             | discovery.
             | 
             | As for MOND and cosmology, yeah, MOND sucks at cosmology.
             | The fact that it can so easily explain so many galactic
             | dynamics (far better than LambdaCDM) is really weird
             | though. MOND isn't a great theory, but it's a really
             | interesting model because it really highlights how poorly
             | LambdaCDM predicts (not explains!) the galaxies we see
             | today.
        
           | burnte wrote:
           | > I'm getting interested now, the comments have alleged
           | several predictions MOND made. On the other hand I'm pretty
           | sure the evidence for dark matter is pretty strong as well (I
           | believe there are several ways to calculate the amount of
           | dark matter, all of which agree). > Can you give an example
           | of MOND falling apart? One that requires so much fine-tuning
           | that it cannot be adequately explained, or one requiring a
           | violation of one of the more fundamental laws of physics?
           | 
           | Pick any MOND theory you like, it all fails when it hits
           | relativity, which is a theory with an embarrassment of riches
           | of evidence in its favor, and can't be reconciled with
           | relativity either. So while it explains galactic rotational
           | speeds, it then fails to explain lots of other things, so
           | it's a huge step backwards. It's the equivalent of saying
           | Newtonian physics is wrong because it can't explain Mercury's
           | precession, so let's go back to epicycles. To favor MOND we
           | give up tremendously more than we gain.
           | 
           | MOND CAN explain things, if I have been interpreted to say it
           | never predicts anything, that was never my intent. The
           | problem is that MOND can't explain much else, so rather than
           | making our theories simpler (which usually means we're in the
           | right direction) it complicates things.
           | 
           | To make relativity work for the things MOND looks at, we only
           | add 1 thing, WIMPs, particles we theorize but haven't seen.
           | We've predicted lots of particle and found them, so this
           | isn't a problem. chances we have missed a particle that turns
           | out to be highly non-interactive? High. It took us ages to
           | really solve the missing neutrino problem by discovering
           | them, and we predicted the Higgs boson with high accuracy
           | too. So this is a road we've been down before.
           | 
           | To make MOND work, we throw out a lot of theory, and we have
           | nothing to replace it with under MOND. Chances all those
           | other theories are wrong even though they work great? Low.
           | 
           | Dr Becky is amazing with her MOND analyses. Here's one of the
           | latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlNSvrYygRc
        
         | firebot wrote:
         | The latest is, afaik, is called RelMOND, short for relativistic
         | MOND. It describes the cosmos very similarly to the standard
         | model, but with MOND as well. So slightly better matching
         | observations than lambda CDM, but still imperfect. They plan to
         | incorporate electromagnetism in future models.
        
       | xanzi2048 wrote:
       | Why does MOND keep showing up on HN? Pretty odd considering it's
       | not particularly popular elsewhere and fails to explain a lot of
       | observations of dark matter (bullet cluster, CMB). It's worth
       | noting these rotation curves are not all the same curve, and
       | we've discovered galaxies with varying quantities of implied dark
       | matter (eg
       | https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/07/aa46291-...)
       | - so is MOND different for every galaxy?
        
         | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
         | No. MOND is the same everywhere, with basically no free
         | parameters.
        
           | xanzi2048 wrote:
           | but... how is that compatible with the article I linked here?
           | Some galaxies look like they have very little dark matter, a
           | MOND with no free parameters can't explain why different
           | galaxies have different inconsistencies in their rotation
           | curves.
        
             | throwawaymaths wrote:
             | You actually have to do the math, it's not just a "no dark
             | matter hurr durr" thing.
             | 
             | MOND predicts "no dark matter" if the acceleration regime
             | is high. Most galaxies that havd "very little dark matter"
             | are in the high acceleration regime.
             | 
             | Most of the others seem to be susceptible to observational
             | error (e.g. ultra diffuses). Galaxy rotation curves
             | measurements are highly sensitive to orientation of the
             | rotational axis and distance to us (you're gonna have a
             | hard time measuring it if the galaxy is face on)
        
             | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
             | Correct. MOND cannot explain why some galaxies don't fit
             | it's predicted rotation curve.
             | 
             | However, the vast majority do, and the linked paper says
             | that the ones they are describing are extremely rare.
        
         | ttpphd wrote:
         | Because HN loves Sabine H.
        
           | stoperaticless wrote:
           | I do. Just please don't mention that to my wife.
           | 
           | Worth noting that recently (when couple of months is
           | considered recent), she mentioned that she had falling out
           | with MOND (due to some new study coming to ger attention).
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | And they specifically love her because she is extremely
           | contrarian. HN has a massive problem with contrarian bias.
        
         | ansible wrote:
         | I also don't know why MOND remains so popular.
         | 
         | Angela Collier talks about Dark Matter here:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbmJkMhmrVI
         | 
         | And talks more about how often MOND is brought up in comments
         | on her own video:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS34oV-jv_A
        
           | roywiggins wrote:
           | It's easy to be a MOND enthusiast without a physics PhD, it's
           | a lot harder to be an axion or WIMP enthusiast.
           | 
           | "Just tweak the laws of physics, bozos!" is a really easy
           | idea for laymen to latch on to, which is why you see so much
           | interest in it among science enthusiasts.
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | "The experts are wrong because they are overcomplicating
             | things" is also just a rhetorical trick that has pretty
             | much always worked on some segment of the population.
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | MOND remains popular because it's made so many successful a
           | priori predictions that DM failed to do. At the risk of being
           | too reductive: DM is popular among maths-oriented
           | astrophysicists because as physicists they like particles and
           | deep theories, and MOND by contrast, doesn't have a full
           | theory justifying the adjustments to gravity and they don't
           | like that; MOND tends to be more popular among astronomers
           | than astrophysicists because they like effective theories
           | that make successful predictions using few parameters, and
           | MOND is somehow better at that (as with this paper).
        
           | Sevii wrote:
           | It's because people don't like the idea of matter that you
           | can't interact with especially if it makes up a double digit
           | percentage of all mass in the universe.
        
         | notfed wrote:
         | Maybe we need both?
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | Hacker News is just a part of the larger web. It's the same
         | reason you see so many people arguing over lab leak, ketogenic
         | diets, barefoot running. Anything whatsoever that is vaguely
         | heterodox and hints that you might have some knowledge that
         | either the "establishment" doesn't know or is lying about is a
         | tremendous ego boost. If your default position epistemically is
         | you don't really have the expertise or time to investigate
         | everything out there, which is more or less true for everyone
         | no matter how intelligent you are or how much expertise you
         | have on one specific topic, then if you're going to throw darts
         | anyway, you may as well throw them at the target that, if
         | correct, makes you look and feel just a little bit more special
         | than the unwashed masses being spoonfed that food pyramid.
         | 
         | I can't remember where at this point, but decades ago I heard
         | this kind of thing called "insight porn" and have myself been
         | guilty of it for much of my life. It's endemic to web
         | communities composed of relatively smart people, at least if we
         | take "smart" to mean something like intellectually curious and
         | having right tail levels of raw cognitive ability, rather than
         | meaning anything you believe is more likely to be true.
        
           | roywiggins wrote:
           | MOND is also just a lot easier to feel like you understand
           | than the zoo of proposed dark matter particles, so it sticks
           | in the layman mind.
        
             | TheBlight wrote:
             | Which best satisfies Occam's Razor?
             | 
             | 1) The vast majority of matter in the Universe is
             | invisible. We've tried looking for it in a variety of ways
             | for decades but we can't find it but we're sure it's there.
             | 
             | 2) Our model of the Universe is slightly incorrect. It
             | works in many many cases but not in interesting outlier
             | situations. eg. at very low accelerations.
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | MOND doesn't explain _all_ of the missing mass, it just
               | reduces it to a fifth of what it was. So you need MOND
               | and _something else_ , which is two things, which Occam's
               | Razor disfavors anyway.
        
               | TheBlight wrote:
               | I don't necessarily believe canonical MOND is the answer,
               | just that it seems more reasonable to me to assume we
               | don't have the Universe completely figured out and
               | accurately modeled just yet vs. being emphatically sure
               | most matter never interacts with light but only with
               | gravity despite continued failure in finding direct
               | evidence of it because it would satisfy our current model
               | without the need to adjust it.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | > So you need MOND and something else, which is two
               | things, which Occam's Razor disfavors anyway.
               | 
               | Misapplication of Occam's razor. LCDM also needs multiple
               | things: non-interacting dark matter + a fine-tuned
               | distribution of DM that cannot be a priori predicted from
               | any observations, but only post-hoc fitted after
               | observation. By contrast, MOND has successfully predicted
               | rotation curves (and lots more) from the visible matter
               | alone.
               | 
               | You can't naively apply Occam's razor to two theories
               | that both fail some set of observations. However, as a
               | scientific theory, MOND has a better track record of
               | successful predictions.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | It took us until the 20th century to discover radiation,
               | despite it having extremely direct and powerful
               | interactions. Gravity is a shitty, weak interaction that
               | we largely don't have a full understanding of, so why is
               | it so unlikely we haven't properly discovered matter that
               | only interacts weakly with gravity? How the hell else
               | would we "discover" it?
        
           | ljsprague wrote:
           | Great comment. (It was clearly a lab leak though.)
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | > Why does MOND keep showing up on HN? Pretty odd considering
         | it's not particularly popular elsewhere and fails to explain a
         | lot of observations of dark matter (bullet cluster, CMB).
         | 
         | And DM fails to explain flat rotation curves out to 1000
         | parsecs, or how MOND was able to make so many successful a
         | priori predictions where DM has to be curve fitted after the
         | fact. This paper is just the latest to refute LCDM, but no
         | doubt proponents will add yet more parameters to correct for
         | this failure, as they have done many times in the past when
         | observations refuted DM predictions.
         | 
         | Honestly, you and many others have fallen for the DM
         | propaganda. Both DM and MOND are problematic and fail in
         | various ways. DM is not nearly as successful a scientific
         | theory as most think, and MOND is not nearly as problematic:
         | 
         | From Galactic Bars to the Hubble Tension: Weighing Up the
         | Astrophysical Evidence for Milgromian Gravity,
         | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/14/7/1331
        
           | canjobear wrote:
           | What would cause the large majority of a scientific field to
           | fall for propaganda? If MOND is predictively superior then
           | why is it not accepted?
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | The simple answer is 1) because physicists don't want to
             | muck with general relativity which has had many successes
             | across sub-galactic scales, so they are trying as hard as
             | possible to jam a particle into the hole that's been
             | observed when extending GR/Newton to galactic scales, 2)
             | MOND is just an "effective theory" that seems to fit
             | observations but doesn't really have a fully fleshed out
             | theory explaining why this change to gravity happens; this
             | "inelegance" rubs math-oriented physicsts the wrong way.
             | 
             | I've mentioned elsewhere here that astrophysicsts tend to
             | prefer DM because they like particles and mathematical
             | elegance, and astronomers are more open to MOND because
             | they like theories with few parameters that make successful
             | predictions (a reductive generalization, but broadly true I
             | think). JWST has validated many MOND predictions, so I hope
             | people open their minds a little more now, but as I said,
             | neither theory is fully satisfactory in the end.
             | 
             | Edit: the author of this post is an astronomer that has
             | been working in this field for a long time and he posted
             | another article that reviews MOND and LCDM with some
             | history:
             | 
             | https://tritonstation.com/2023/01/05/question-of-the-year-
             | an...
        
               | TheBlight wrote:
               | There are also tremendous social/professional/monetary
               | incentives to stick to Lambda-CDM (or whatever the
               | consensus happens to be.)
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | There's also outside support due to converging interests.
               | If DM is a particle that gives particle physicists an
               | excuse to fund numerous experiments in an attempt to
               | detect it. There are just more physicists motivated
               | overall to prefer particle DM.
        
               | TheBlight wrote:
               | It's also safe. There is no reputational risk because
               | "everyone" (who matters to you professionally) already
               | agrees with you. There isn't much immediate upside to
               | sticking your neck out. Especially in the era of social
               | media.
        
         | cratermoon wrote:
         | Marketing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS34oV-jv_A
        
       | thriftwy wrote:
       | Are these rotation flats variable in magnitude? Would one galaxy
       | have a different curve height than another one? What does it
       | depend on?
       | 
       | Update: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tully-Fisher_relation But
       | the linear regression looks unconvincing
        
       | mikewarot wrote:
       | Nobody wants to give up 1/r^2, including me.
       | 
       | However, what if it holds, but if _inertia_ is quantized, then
       | you get less gravitational effect at 90 degrees to the path of
       | motion at astronomic distances as it recedes into the quantum
       | noise.
       | 
       | Which fits observations with inventing dark matter, or tweaking
       | gravity.
        
       | _nalply wrote:
       | I just watched Sabine Hossenfelder's video (Gravity without Mass,
       | https://youtu.be/Q0fwRMvNkoA) where she talks about hollow
       | spheres. Inspired by this video I have this hypothesis:
       | 
       | There's quantum fluctuation. Particles appear out of nowhere and
       | disappear again. Hossenfelder talked about negative mass, so
       | allow me to do this as well: What if a pair of two particles, one
       | of negative and one of positive mass can very rarely appear?
       | 
       | They disappear immediately again but for a short moment we have
       | acceleration (more about that in Hossenfelder's video). Could
       | this be enough to explain "dark matter"?
        
       | Razengan wrote:
       | As told in certain science fiction, I like to imagine that dark
       | matter/energy is the "pollution" or other side effects caused by
       | some alien civilizations [over]use of faster-than-light travel.
       | 
       | Which is actually a terrifying existential threat to think about:
       | The more an earlier civilization uses FTL, the more space will
       | expand, and eventually it will become all but impossible for
       | younger civilizations to traverse space without becoming
       | dependent on the elder races.
        
       | hwc wrote:
       | that is very surprising.
        
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