[HN Gopher] Electricity prices in France turn negative as renewa...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Electricity prices in France turn negative as renewable energy
       floods the grid
        
       Author : Capstanlqc
       Score  : 109 points
       Date   : 2024-06-18 17:31 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (fortune.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (fortune.com)
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | > French day-ahead power fell to -EUR5.76 a megawatt-hour, the
       | lowest in four years, in an auction on Epex Spot. Germany's
       | equivalent contract dropped to EUR7.64.
       | 
       | If true - how fast could a new transmission line from France to
       | Germany pay for itself?
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d7469...
         | 
         | https://montelnews.com/news/1525872/france-to-miss-2030-inte...
         | 
         | https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0KW3WE/
        
         | ganeshkrishnan wrote:
         | Germany already buys electricity from France. The cost
         | mentioned above are the subsidized charges by the EDF to the
         | french government.
         | 
         | Germans would get the full cost which is much higher than the
         | quoted price here. Besides nuclear power is not flexible enough
         | to amp it up and down according to demand (unlike coal or
         | petrocarbon industries).
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | French reactors are built to load follow [1]. It is harder on
           | the valves, but they do it ("maneuvering capabilities").
           | Regardless, it would be better if they could run flat out to
           | push out fossil generation in adjacent grids (Germany, the
           | UK, and Northern Italy) with sufficient interconnector
           | capacity. France also still has a bit of coal and fossil gas
           | generation to retire [2] [3].
           | 
           | TLDR More interconnector capacity, battery storage, and
           | renewables needed (my analysis).
           | 
           | [1] https://www.oecd-
           | nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12...
           | 
           | [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR?wind=false&solar=
           | fal...
           | 
           | [3] https://www.euractiv.com/section/coal/news/france-
           | extends-li...
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | Which theyve actually used very very rarely.
             | 
             | Nuclear reactors are already very cost ineffective when
             | used as baseload. Theyre _ridiculously_ cost ineffective
             | when used for load following since it 's basically
             | curtailment.
             | 
             | This is why most countries tend to use gas or hydro/pumped
             | storage for load following (or, increasingly, batteries as
             | theyve been plummeting in price).
        
               | orwin wrote:
               | It's untrue, it is used everyday on all our Gen3/Gen3+
               | reactors (our Gen2 are able to do it too, but it does
               | cost a lot as core monitoring is more costly for them)
               | 
               | I've found this https://www.oecd-nea.org/nea-
               | news/2011/29-2/aen-infos-suivi-... even if it isn't
               | really clear, you have a graph that show you a typical
               | year on a french reactor, and load followinf the german
               | reactors used to do over a day.
        
               | throw0101c wrote:
               | > _Nuclear reactors are already very cost ineffective
               | when used as baseload._
               | 
               | Ontario, Canada would disagree with you: nuclear is
               | 10.1C//kWh, hydro is 6.2C/, (methane/natural) gas is
               | 11.4C/; see Table 2:
               | 
               | * https://www.oeb.ca/sites/default/files/rpp-price-
               | report-2023...
               | 
               | Of course hydro-electric dams typically flood many
               | hectares of land for the reservoir. The current ones are
               | getting refurbished:
               | 
               | * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/niagara-ontario-
               | power...
               | 
               | Ontario's nuclear fleet are also in the middle of a bunch
               | of refurbs:
               | 
               | * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-nuclear-
               | power...
               | 
               | Some of which are finished:
               | 
               | * https://www.opg.com/releases/opg-celebrates-the-early-
               | comple...
               | 
               | Live data on Ontario's grid:
               | 
               | * https://ieso.ca/power-data SS "Supply" tab
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Ontario's ultra-low-overnight time of use rates are 2.8c
               | / kWh. Keeping the nuclear plants running overnight means
               | they're losing 7 cents/kWh overnight. Better to shut
               | those plants down overnight, but of course approximately
               | all the nuclear costs are incurred whether the plants are
               | running overnight or not, so shutting down overnight
               | would just double the daytime costs.
        
             | stkdump wrote:
             | It is likely that the times where French renewables flood
             | the market roughly coincide with the times where German
             | renewables flood the market, which where 60% of the supply
             | even in the winter. The few remaining times where that
             | isn't the case are probably not relevant. I mean every bit
             | helps of equalizing over a larger area can help, but we
             | likely need interconnects with places that are a bit
             | farther away than France like Spain and Norway so the gaps
             | are more likely to fall into different times. Besides, coal
             | plants are almost as bad in spinning up and down quickly as
             | nuclear plants. In both cases they can probably do somewhat
             | it to escape the penalty of negative prices, but likely
             | they don't safe much if anything in terms of operational
             | costs and fuel.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Spain is awash in clean energy from renewables [1] and
               | has large interconnect capabilities with Portugal (~5GW).
               | Between both countries [2] [3], they operate very close
               | to ~90% low carbon most of the time. Spain's last coal
               | fired generator retires in August 2024 [4]. We must push
               | east with low carbon power, as that is where the dirty
               | grids are (see live ElectricityMaps app map scoped to
               | Europe for context).
               | 
               | [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czkkgnp1d2xo
               | 
               | [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/ES?wind=false&so
               | lar=fal...
               | 
               | [3] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/PT?wind=false&so
               | lar=fal...
               | 
               | [4] https://www.gem.wiki/As_Pontes_power_station
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | Spain is adjacent to France, just like Germany; not sure
               | it's farther away :P
               | 
               | But the way these networks work, you can often build up
               | the interconnects where there's a pricing/availability
               | disparity, and pretty soon you have a vast interconnect.
               | Because if Germany's grid pricing benefits from
               | relatively unconstrained interconnection with France,
               | there's going to be a pricing disparity at Germany's
               | other borders. Of course, grid borders don't necessarily
               | reflect national borders, and national interconnection
               | projects have to happen too.
               | 
               | That said, the top 5 countries by peak load in wikipedia
               | are France, Germany, UK, Italy, and Spain, which are all
               | either France or neighbors of France.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Con
               | tinenta...
        
         | dmurray wrote:
         | Let's see:
         | 
         | The line can't just go a few metres across the border. Let's
         | say it connects Dortmund, in the German industrial heartland on
         | the French side of the country, with Chooz, the site of a
         | nuclear plant near the German border. French nuclear plants are
         | evenly distributed around the country [0], so that should be a
         | reasonable choice. That's 250 km.
         | 
         | High voltage transmission costs around EUR2m/km to build [1]
         | and carries around 2 GW of power [2].
         | 
         | So your line costs EUR500m to build and makes EUR13 x 2000 =
         | EUR26,000 an hour and pays for itself after 20,000 hours or
         | three years.
         | 
         | You might reasonably say you wouldn't expect to capture all of
         | the EUR13 per MWh in arbitrage profits, and perhaps this
         | disparity was a short-lived aberration. But actually it's not:
         | electricity _futures_ in France are priced EUR25 cheaper than
         | their equivalent contracts in Germany [3], so you could
         | reasonably expect to capture a good portion of that - if you
         | split the surplus between you, the consumer and the producer
         | you can still get EUR9.
         | 
         | Of course, one problem with this free money is that your
         | competitors are already doing it. The gap is expected to narrow
         | over time thanks to interconnectors like this, increased
         | generation in Germany, and French nuclear plants going out of
         | service [3]. Still, with increasing electrification of the
         | energy market, this kind of power transmission seems like a
         | good business to be in and a good investment for national
         | governments and grid operators.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-French-nuclear-
         | po...
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358793859_Cost_of_e...
         | 
         | [2]
         | https://web.ecs.baylor.edu/faculty/grady/_13_EE392J_2_Spring...
         | 
         | [3]
         | https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d7469...
        
           | jandrese wrote:
           | In general if the incentives are already aligned to solve a
           | problem I don't worry about the problem. It is likely to
           | solve itself without any intervention.
        
             | dmurray wrote:
             | Yes, I don't worry about hundred-dollar bills on the
             | sidewalk either.
        
       | kseistrup wrote:
       | They ought to flood something towards Denmark. Right now, in this
       | moment, I pay roughly 0.49EUR (3.66 DKK) per kWh.
        
         | Y_Y wrote:
         | Depends on where you are! Jutland and Fyn can share via the
         | Central European grid whereas Sjaelland is on the Nordic grid
         | with Sweden.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continenta...
         | 
         | (There are several HVDC links between those grids, but as I
         | understand it that adds capacitance for the purpose of
         | pricing.)
        
         | leobg wrote:
         | Let's run a crowdfunding campaign for the cable. I'm midway and
         | will want a piece of that as well.
        
       | ganeshkrishnan wrote:
       | This was very surprising and positive. I had expected pain for
       | the electricity market in France since EDF "lost" the uranium
       | mines in Niger and replaced it by shipping uranium from
       | canada/australia.
       | 
       | So it looks like solar and wind have more than compensated for
       | the nuclear power shortages.
       | 
       | The olympic games will put this news to test and I guess we will
       | find out soon if this news is indeed true.
        
         | realusername wrote:
         | There's two years of uranium ready to use in reserve plus five
         | years more in reserve to enrich plus all the other producers.
         | There's never been any issue with uranium, not even remotely.
         | I'm not even sure the Niger coup will last that long.
        
         | cyberax wrote:
         | This is NOT positive. Not at all. This means that the grid is
         | filled with useless generating capacity.
         | 
         | As a result, nuclear power becomes less competitive. However,
         | renewables work poorly during the winter time. In Europe, they
         | can go down for multiple _weeks_ at a time, far beyond any
         | storage capabilities. And the only power plants that can fill
         | the gap are fossil fuels.
         | 
         | End result: more fossil generation.
        
         | yodelshady wrote:
         | "..the grid operator to request that Electricite de France SA
         | take several nuclear plants offline."
         | 
         | Could you _read_ the article please?
         | 
         | The lumbering beasts, which actually do hate changing output at
         | all, turned off _before_ the renewables.
         | 
         | Secondly, another below comment already explains that no,
         | there's not a shortage.
         | 
         | Thirdly, please for f*ks sake, engage your brain and think what
         | the impact of 700 euros a month (high in 2022) to negative
         | prices now has on industry. What the everloving ** do I _charge
         | my customers_?
         | 
         | Maybe this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40679507
        
       | topper-123 wrote:
       | Isolated this is a zero sum game in favor of buyers (someone has
       | ti take the electricity), but longer term, this shows there needs
       | to be better greater electricity storage solutions available, i.e
       | batteries or similar.
        
         | paulsutter wrote:
         | Negative prices make storage very practical
        
           | andrewxdiamond wrote:
           | And de-incentivizes supply. A real solution need to be
           | available to balance the supply and demand of power such that
           | the rates on both ends are predictable.
           | 
           | A market where a good fluctuates between profitable and not
           | is not one very attractive to investment.
           | 
           | Playing the video game Victoria 3 has taught me a lot about
           | healthy markets. You have to play both sides of supply and
           | demand to get to the prices you need
        
             | topper-123 wrote:
             | Negative prices do incentivize storage, because storage
             | will alliw sellers to sell at a time with higher prices
             | (i.e. when demand is greater relative to supply).
        
               | thecosas wrote:
               | I could see this then pushing more consumers to have
               | their own batteries to store energy when it's
               | inexpensive. Interesting market playing out with energy
               | storage :-)
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Why? If you make a sufficient amount of money in the 5-8pm
             | peak period it can make you strongly profitable despite
             | losing money at noon.
        
               | Gare wrote:
               | And solar plants, unlike most other plants can be easily
               | and quickly shut off so you don't even need to sell at
               | negative prices.
        
               | nawitus wrote:
               | Empirically this doesn't seem to happen.
        
             | bastawhiz wrote:
             | > A market where a good fluctuates between profitable and
             | not is not one very attractive to investment.
             | 
             | This is the most wild thing I've ever read on this website.
             | Pick just about any security and you'll see that buying and
             | selling it over time fluctuates between profitable and not
             | profitable. If something was always profitable everyone
             | would do it and get infinitely rich. Arbitrage wouldn't
             | exist. Economies would shut down.
        
           | jerf wrote:
           | Unfortunately you've got a massive term mismatch. You have
           | negative prices today, but a lot of reason to believe that by
           | the time you could bring your storage online the problem will
           | already have resolved itself.
           | 
           | Oil briefly went negative a few years ago. If you decided to
           | build a storage business dependent on negative oil prices for
           | profit, you might just be coming online around now, and very
           | much poorer than you were before. (Of course you would in
           | fact have stopped a long time ago.)
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | OP is correct. Negative prices stokes battery storage
             | deployment. See California and their ~52GW storage target
             | (currently @ ~10GW), because of negative prices and the
             | duck curve. California utility scale storage soaks up solar
             | during the day (when spot prices approach zero or go
             | negative), and discharges most profitably right after
             | sunset for ~4 hr (but occasionally, right before sunrise
             | when demand is ramping before the sun is up). If spot
             | prices rise during daylight hours, you add more solar
             | generation to push them back down.
             | 
             | https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/04/25/california-achieves-
             | major-...
             | 
             | https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-
             | almanac/califo...
             | 
             | https://cleantechnica.com/2024/06/02/solar-passes-100-of-
             | pow...
             | 
             | https://futurism.com/the-byte/california-solar-
             | electricity-p...
             | 
             | https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-
             | CISO?wind=false&...
        
             | AaronFriel wrote:
             | Oil prices went negative due to an exogenous, rare event
             | shocking demand. No one expected that would recur. (And
             | indeed, many people did try to figure out how to store oil
             | in one-off vessels, short term leases for storage, etc.,
             | though I don't know if anyone succeeded.)
             | 
             | Solar panel production on the other hand is exponential and
             | growing much faster than overall power consumption. It can
             | be very, very favorable to build batteries and that's why
             | grid scale battery production is taking off. There is in
             | fact a storage business dependent on energy arbitrage over
             | time, it's lucrative, and all indications suggest it will
             | continue to be lucrative for many years to come.
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | The oil situation is not analogous. It's not like solar
             | prices going negative are something that is difficult to
             | predict, or the result of things like "black swan"
             | geopolitical events. Once we build out enough solar we
             | should be having negative prices literally every sunny day
             | - of course, the hope is that enough storage comes online
             | then to mop up that excess generation so prices _don 't_ go
             | negative.
        
             | hamandcheese wrote:
             | You don't need negative prices for storage to be
             | profitable, you just need to be able to sell your stored
             | electricity for more than you paid for it.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | The reason why the prices are negative is that renewables
             | have become cheap to install, but don't come with an off
             | switch.
             | 
             | There is good news though. With electric car sales slowing
             | down (at least in the west) there is a surplus of batteries
             | on the market, which makes grid storage projects more
             | affordable. The incentives are currently pushing us towards
             | decarbonizing our electric infrastructure faster and that
             | is wonderful. As long as the politicians don't do anything
             | dumb like slap huge tariffs on solar cells or something we
             | should be making some real progress towards a green future.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > but don't come with an off switch
               | 
               | But they do. Often literally.
               | 
               | Negative prices usually happen because of laws requiring
               | minimum utilization, or subsides, or because they are so
               | small and rare that it is not worth having someone on
               | place to turn the switch.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | If you want to be pedantic yes. But its not like grid
               | operators back in the control rooms are disconnecting
               | solar farms because the grid is oversaturated. They
               | instead tell the fossil fuel plants to reduce their burn
               | rate. They have to work around the instability from the
               | renewables. That's why grid scale storage is such a key
               | component of the future energy economy.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > its not like grid operators back in the control rooms
               | are disconnecting solar farms because the grid is
               | oversaturated
               | 
               | You are correct that they are not.
               | 
               | But this is due to policy, not physics. It's obvious to
               | shut-down the fossil fuel plants first, but after then,
               | there's no physical reason why they can't keep shutting
               | power plants down.
               | 
               | Anyway, agreed, adding storage is a much better solution
               | than focusing on the management of renewables.
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | > But its not like grid operators back in the control
               | rooms are disconnecting solar farms because the grid is
               | oversaturated. They instead tell the fossil fuel plants
               | to reduce their burn rate.
               | 
               | Since we're being pedantic, as I understand it, the grid
               | operators don't usually tell plants what to do (outside
               | of system stress response, curtailment, etc), the grid
               | operator shares the forecast, and when the price forecast
               | is low, fossil fuel plants are likely tell the grid
               | operator they'd rather shutdown than produce power at
               | low/negative prices. For solar plants, there's no fuel
               | cost, and there might be subsidies, so producing at a
               | negative market price might still be positive for the
               | generator and there's no reason to turn it off. For
               | nuclear, fueling schedules don't really change based on
               | use, so there's no reason to not provide optimum power
               | outage other than for grid stability.
               | 
               | Grid scale storage should reduce price swings, since
               | storage plants will tend to show up on the demand side
               | when prices are low and the supply side when prices are
               | high; although perhaps price swings will become bigger
               | when prediction fails --- if storage fills up by noon
               | you'll have a lot of excess supply until sunset; if
               | storage empties by midnight, you may have a lot of excess
               | demand until sunrise.
        
               | jonatron wrote:
               | In the UK there are grid operators in the control rooms
               | disconnecting wind farms. It's called curtailment and
               | it's expensive:
               | https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/04/08/grid-
               | constraints-l...
        
         | bastawhiz wrote:
         | The prices being negative is literally the incentive to build
         | storage.
        
           | netrus wrote:
           | Just to add to that: Any fluctuation in prices works to
           | incentivise storage, negative prices are not so special in
           | that regard.
           | 
           | Negative prices allow for some weird actions to become
           | profitable - like starting an empty washing machine, turning
           | in the light in an empty room or needlessly heating some
           | water tank. Basically everything we are used to think of as
           | waste. It sounds absurd, but it's not really a big deal.
        
           | rurban wrote:
           | And even better, the incentive to expand the grid. The market
           | is easy to control, because the money flows via the internet.
           | But how to transport the energy?
           | 
           | Without a proper grid not possible. The various countries
           | block the expansion for political reasons. They would loose
           | their power.
        
         | gpm wrote:
         | Alternatively this is an economic opportunity for any industry
         | that can usefully make use of intermittent free* energy.
         | 
         | * Long term I have to imagine this is just "cheap" because
         | there's got to be tons of industries that can use intermittent
         | free energy.
        
           | olejorgenb wrote:
           | Such industries need to be have low enough capital cost as
           | well
        
           | stoperaticless wrote:
           | I argue that the number of such industries is and will be
           | low.
           | 
           | Usually clients want consistency in the output. (they depend
           | on the product/service)
           | 
           | Business owner usually wants consistency in
           | employee/machinery output. (They cost money)
           | 
           | To me it seems that only low priority computation (incl. con-
           | coins) is such industry. (Investment kind of reused, and
           | relatively few employees)
           | 
           | There will be some shift to adjust to intermitency (e.g.
           | Worker hours might be shifted to the time when solar
           | generates the most energy to take advantage of the price)
        
       | hackerlight wrote:
       | "French electricity prices turned negative as a drop in demand
       | and surging renewables output prompted some nuclear reactors to
       | power down."
       | 
       | This is an issue with nuclear in a net zero scenario. Nuclear
       | starts out at 90%+ capacity factor, like in California today. But
       | as fossil fuels become a low percentage of the grid, you
       | inevitably get a low capacity factor which increases LCOE. Even
       | if you don't want any renewables and you only build nuclear, the
       | problem is demand isn't static so you have to overbuild nuclear
       | by a lot and run at a low capacity factor, or you build storage,
       | either of these increases LCOE.
       | 
       | The sensible thing will be to use renewables on top of nuclear
       | rather than overbuild nuclear, like what France is doing. But
       | that will also eat into capacity factor when it's more windy and
       | sunny like what France experiences.
       | 
       | Just something to keep in mind when you hear people talk about
       | nuclear costs. Multiply it by at least 1/0.7 if they haven't
       | taken this into account.
        
         | mjevans wrote:
         | High level planning is important for efficiency. It'd be great
         | to have some resources which either store power in bulk cheaply
         | (even if not efficiently) and/or inexpensive to idle operations
         | that can achieve public benefit for spare power.
        
       | cft wrote:
       | In related news: Macron calls for new elections
        
         | D-Coder wrote:
         | New _electrons_? Oh wait.
        
       | Aeolun wrote:
       | If the price is -5$ in France, but still $7 in Germany, why not
       | dump all that excess energy to Germany?
        
         | jasoncartwright wrote:
         | Not enough interconnect capacity
         | https://montelnews.com/news/1525872/france-to-miss-2030-inte...
        
         | philipkglass wrote:
         | There isn't enough transmission line capacity to transfer all
         | of it.
        
         | 486sx33 wrote:
         | Not enough interconnect High loses in transmission No one needs
         | the energy in the times it goes negative, unless you're a 1/4
         | planet away Unfortunately electric cars only make the peaks and
         | valleys more pronounced. What we need is electric cars to be
         | required to charge the grid during high demand and only charge
         | during very low demand. The chargers need to be smart and
         | integrated with the grid operator
        
           | nawitus wrote:
           | The explanation is lack of interconnect, not losses in
           | transmission. If you have enough capacity to transfer
           | electricity the prices will be equal in two neighboring
           | electricity markets.
        
       | EcommerceFlow wrote:
       | What I never understood was how France gets 70-75% of their
       | electricity from Nuclear, yet their energy prices aren't "too
       | cheap to meter", and while cheaper than their neighbors, don't
       | really raise any eyebrows. Wouldn't this be a major example of
       | why Nuclear is NOT the future?
        
         | robertlagrant wrote:
         | I'm confused. The way you've phrased this certainly doesn't
         | sound like it couldn't be the future.
        
           | EcommerceFlow wrote:
           | I've heard for years that if we just had "tons" of Nuclear
           | plants, our energy costs would essentially be too cheap to
           | meter. Yet France is not experiencing this even at 75%
           | Nuclear.
        
             | WheatMillington wrote:
             | Where did you hear that? I've only ever heard about how
             | nuclear is both capital and opex intensive and very
             | expensive.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | It was a common BS claim in the Reagan years, as to why
               | we didn't need to invest in renewables back then. "Why
               | bother, soon all this nuclear energy will basically be
               | free".
               | 
               | This has nothing to do with what anyone actually said.
               | Just ask any 60-something, mild conservative. The meme
               | exists, even though the actual quote was slightly more
               | mealy mouthed.
               | 
               | It was always nonsense anyway. Electricity generation is
               | mostly a deregulated market in most places, so nobody
               | would spend billions on a Nuclear plant that wasn't
               | guaranteed to make back it's money. It was always a
               | thought terminating cliche.
        
             | robertlagrant wrote:
             | You're remembering a (mis-)quote of a speech given in
             | 1954[0].
             | 
             | And even if it weren't a misquote, "Living up to a quote
             | from 1954" is not how we judge whether a power source is
             | still worth investing in for the future.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.thisdayinquotes.com/2015/09/too-cheap-to-
             | meter-t...
        
             | serial_dev wrote:
             | As far as I know and even learned as a (since failed)
             | physicist, a country needs a good mixture of energy
             | sources. Mind you I went to a university that's nuclear
             | energy focused and even they didn't advocate for full on
             | only nuclear.
             | 
             | In my opinion, if someone says we should just have all
             | nuclear, it means they are dealing in absolutes, maybe God
             | in politics and debate, but they ignore that reality is
             | much more complicated, as technology meets economics and
             | politics (and much more).
             | 
             | (Again, AFAIK) nuclear energy is great when it comes to
             | meeting the "baseline" requirements, roughly the level
             | below which energy consumption of a region never drops. It
             | is because nuclear energy cannot be scaled up and down
             | quickly, so it's not adequate for peaks.
             | 
             | To balance the peaks and keep the network stable, you need
             | energy sources that can increase their output in seconds
             | (or less?).
             | 
             | That's also one of the issues with wind and solar, you
             | can't choose when it is available and when it isn't, so
             | coal etc is still needed to make sure that energy
             | production and consumption is practically equal at all
             | times.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Nuclear is very poor for baseline requirements. Baseline
               | requirements should be met by the cheapest source and
               | more expensive sources should only be added as required
               | to follow demand.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | If anyone told you that they were lying to you.
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Presumably once it gets cheap enough it becomes profitable
             | to sell it internationally which caps the price?
             | 
             | Besides, you still have to pay back for the construction
             | and the fuel, it's never gonna be free.
        
             | Herz wrote:
             | The words of a human shouldn't necessarily represent
             | reality, especially when the human in question is a
             | politician and not a scientist. Your argument doesn't make
             | much sense.
             | 
             | Furthermore, no one could have predicted the mass protests,
             | scandals, and fears that nuclear energy has sparked over
             | the decades. These factors have significantly reduced the
             | hype and investment in the sector.
        
         | henearkr wrote:
         | The determinant factor in this article is the renewable
         | electricity sudden flow.
         | 
         | Nuclear fission reactors have problems in other domains like
         | being a huge liability during a military conflict, and
         | dependance on uranium supply from the Sahel.
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | Indeed. The op ex of nuclear is surprisingly high (esp when
         | compared to wind solar), then on top of that is the cost of
         | financing the very long build.
         | 
         | Also, nuclear plants in France are starting to suffer from
         | water shortages; since an overheating plant is a problem it
         | means that they take water at the expense of other uses, which
         | is an externality they currently don't pay for because the
         | economics of these plants is so terrible already.
         | 
         | I really want to like niclear but I have never been able to see
         | the math work (and I've been paying intermittent attention for
         | 40 years).
        
         | givemeethekeys wrote:
         | There's a cost associated with construction and maintenance -
         | labor and materials aren't free.
         | 
         | Then, there's everything else - you'd have to look at their
         | budget to see if the proceeds from electricity are funding
         | other programs.
        
         | johnzim wrote:
         | I mean.. They literally just became too cheap to meter by
         | application of 33% more generation?
         | 
         | Functionally they could get there by just building a few more
         | reactors.
        
           | more_corn wrote:
           | The "just" word is doing a lot of work here and masking
           | multiple billion euro investments, decades long planning and
           | build projects, risk and opportunity cost. How about instead
           | we "just" invest in grid scale and distributed battery
           | storage and double down on wind and solar?
        
         | digdugdirk wrote:
         | Their grid was still constructed on a capitalistic model.
         | Investment in electricity generation stations in return for
         | payments from electricity consuming users over time. Build too
         | much nuclear (or any other power generation) and you lower the
         | returns of the previous investors.
         | 
         | The easy answer is that financiers don't want it, so it won't
         | happen.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | > Wouldn't this be a major example of why Nuclear is NOT the
         | future?
         | 
         | Not at all. Nobody has really put forth "too cheap to meter" as
         | a rationale for nuclear for 50 years or more.
         | 
         | The issue is that nuclear is currently the only reliable base
         | load generation technology that doesn't produce carbon (except
         | perhaps hydro for reasonable definitions of "reliable"). The
         | other top technologies either produce carbon (natural gas and
         | coal) or are unreliable (solar and wind).
         | 
         | I actually _don 't_ believe nuclear is "the future" because I
         | think renewables + battery storage will be more economical
         | going forward and less politically dicey. But France is
         | currently the envy of the world for their energy generation
         | save for some countries with unique environments that allow for
         | a lot of carbon-free generation (e.g. Norway with hydro and
         | Iceland with geothermal).
        
           | briandear wrote:
           | Why isn't wind and solar politically dicey? Nuclear is only
           | politically dicey due to ignorance. I'd rather one nuclear
           | plant than having the landscape covered with huge windmills
           | -- windmills made out of materials that aren't recyclable.
           | Solar is even worse. Nuclear doesn't affect wildlife like
           | wind and solar.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Spending $20B for $1B worth of generating capacity is and
             | always should be politically dicey.
        
             | dmoo wrote:
             | Until it does...
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Nuclear elicits outrage from customers forced to pay for it
             | because it's so expensive. How do you propose muting them
             | politics?
        
             | kelnos wrote:
             | I agree that the safety fears and waste disposal issues
             | around nuclear are overwrought, but still: I would much
             | prefer solar and wind farms (even with the downsides you
             | mention) over the possibility of a nuclear catastrophe.
             | Even if the probability of something like that is
             | 0.0000000001% or whatever, the consequences are so severe
             | that it just doesn't seem worth it when there's a good-
             | enough alternative. Also consider that nuclear is expensive
             | (both in capex and opex)! The whole "too cheap to meter"
             | nonsense from the 1950s never came to fruition.
             | 
             | I get that opinions differ on this (clearly you have a
             | different take), but that's fine; reasonable people can
             | disagree.
             | 
             | (To be clear, I don't believe solar/wind is the be-all,
             | end-all. Base load generation is still a problem there, and
             | neither source is reliable or consistent in the way that
             | something like nuclear is.)
        
           | Herz wrote:
           | Isn't it a bit whishful thinking to think that storage will
           | come down in price and nuclear won't?
           | 
           | Beyond that, leaving out storage costs, what are the
           | technologies that can cover the world's storage? And in what
           | quantities?
           | 
           | Because if I think of lithium, wouldn't it be an
           | environmental disaster to extract and recycle all the
           | materials involved?
           | 
           | In general, I don't understand why basically nuclear is to be
           | replaced.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | > Isn't it a bit wishful thinking to think that storage
             | will come down in price and nuclear won't?
             | 
             | It's been true for 50 years, assuming it will be true for
             | another decade or two is not wishful thinking.
             | 
             | > Beyond that, leaving out storage costs, what are the
             | technologies that can cover the world's storage? And in
             | what quantities?
             | 
             | Batteries for short term storage and pumped hydro for long
             | term storage.
             | 
             | > Because if I think of lithium, wouldn't it be an
             | environmental disaster to extract and recycle all the
             | materials involved?
             | 
             | No.
             | 
             | > In general, I don't understand why basically nuclear is
             | to be replaced.
             | 
             | It's inevitable that the cheapest solution will win. Not
             | the best, but the cheapest.
        
               | Herz wrote:
               | > It's been true for 50 years, assuming it will be true
               | for another decade or two is not wishful thinking.
               | 
               | Well it's one thing though to use the storage for a cell
               | phones and some cars, another to keep all the industries
               | and homes going on.
               | 
               | Do you have any data about what you claim?
               | 
               | For example in italy of hydro, nothing has been built for
               | decades, everything that could be used has been used. If
               | we want to go further, it's necessary to destroy valleys.
               | 
               | Your arguments do not go beyond whishful thinking... At
               | least you need some data.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | > Well it's one thing though to use the storage for a
               | cell phones and some cars, another to keep all the
               | industries and homes going on.
               | 
               | Not really. If all vehicles on the road where 100% PEV's
               | your looking at ~250 TWh in batteries. 1/5 of that would
               | be ~50TWh.
               | 
               | Global electricity demand is about 70 TWh per day. You
               | don't need 70 TWh worth of storage if daily production is
               | > daily demand. It all comes down to which is cheaper,
               | extra storage or extra generating capacity. However ~25
               | TWh of storage is likely sufficient for a grid equally
               | stable as what we have today. (100% EV's would increase
               | that 70TWh/day but that's offset by charging them when
               | power is cheap.)
        
               | Herz wrote:
               | I quite believe in it with the fact that it is feasible
               | in the coming decades a way to redistirbute peak energy
               | through daily storage. The problems in my opinion is
               | assuming too much that everything will go as planned
               | according to current trends (cheaper renewable, cheaper
               | battery, enough production, 100+% penetration, etc).
               | Because we're talking about several independent
               | variables, and there's a chance (in my opinion quite
               | large) that not everything will go as predicted.
               | 
               | If we find out in a few decades that the price of solar,
               | batteries or renewables is no longer going down (and the
               | reasons could be many, like a war, or a plateau in
               | penetration), it could be enough to ruin those
               | expectations. And discover that putting all our hopes in
               | a single event could be our downfall.
               | 
               | Besides, even if daily storage is feasible, with current
               | trends, we're still a long way from seasonal storage...
               | 
               | That's my opinion, which is why I think it's necessary to
               | invest and believe in all technologies, without looking
               | for the one we like the most or looks the most promising,
               | since it leads to big bias and overestimation.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | There are enough innovations in the pipeline that it's
               | very safe to predict continuing battery price drops for
               | the next decade, another 80% reduction or so. It's
               | possible it stops after a decade. At that point nuclear
               | would need a 100x price reduction to compete.
        
               | Herz wrote:
               | https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery
               | .pn...
               | 
               | Sorry but where do you see this 80% drop? When the price
               | of storage seems close to reaching a plateau (which by
               | the way is also what I assumed in previous comments).
               | 
               | I understand being optimistic, but you claim to know the
               | future while also denying the present... It's ironic.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | Storage prices have been dropping precipitously for the
             | past decade. Even more exciting is that the excitement over
             | electric vehicles that has constrained battery supply for
             | the past 2-3 years has started to slacken allowing battery
             | prices to start falling again as EV manufacturers cut back
             | on production. I'm excited to see what the next couple of
             | years brings in the realm of grid and home storage.
        
             | Damogran6 wrote:
             | There are other storage technologies being fielded...they
             | haven't been popular because their energy densities are
             | low...but if you have a 2000 lb hunk of Iron Aire battery
             | next to your house, who cares? (https://www.popularmechanic
             | s.com/science/energy/a42532492/ir...)
        
               | Herz wrote:
               | Do you have any idea how long it takes for a technology
               | at a research stage to enter scale production and be
               | commercially viable?
        
               | Damogran6 wrote:
               | I don't have my eye on these technologies (there were at
               | least two that I've run across that were REALLY HEAVY),
               | so I can't tell you how close they are to production. But
               | every bit helps and the amazing pouch batteries in your
               | laptop weren't developed overnight... 18650 batteries are
               | astounding compared to the Eveready Alkalines of my
               | youth, and available for $3 a piece in quantity.
        
             | kelnos wrote:
             | > _Isn 't it a bit whishful thinking to think that storage
             | will come down in price and nuclear won't?_
             | 
             | My understanding is that the costs around nuclear aren't
             | due to the technology being expensive (something that yes,
             | we would expect to get cheaper over time), but because of
             | the -- IMO necessary -- regulatory and safety regime
             | surrounding nuclear power. Costs that I wouldn't expect to
             | change all that much (and maybe even _increase_ with time).
             | 
             | With storage, the cost is mainly the technology. As the
             | tech improves, the cost decreases.
        
               | Herz wrote:
               | I believe you are mostly right.
               | 
               | However, I don't think the decline in battery prices is
               | primarily due to the technologies used. Instead, it's
               | more about economies of scale and demand, which help
               | optimize prices.
               | 
               | From my perspective, nuclear energy is on a similar path
               | but with significantly less investment. A major portion
               | of nuclear costs stems from the lack of economies of
               | scale.
               | 
               | In my opinion, the arguments against nuclear energy
               | contribute to the perception of its economic
               | inefficiency. If people don't believe in it or don't want
               | it, there will never be an opportunity to achieve
               | economies of scale.
               | 
               | Here its quite well documented: https://www.construction-
               | physics.com/p/why-are-nuclear-power...
        
           | guerby wrote:
           | Note: nuclear near rivers is prone to the same "reliability"
           | issues as hydro.
        
           | throw0101c wrote:
           | > _Not at all. Nobody has really put forth "too cheap to
           | meter" as a rationale for nuclear for 50 years or more._
           | 
           | A history of the phrase, which was originally said in 1954
           | (seventy years ago):
           | 
           | > _Only a few days later, Strauss was a guest on Meet the
           | Press. When the reporters asked him about the quotation and
           | the viability of "commercial power from atomic piles,"
           | Strauss replied that he expected his children and
           | grandchildren would have power "too cheap to be metered, just
           | as we have water today that's too cheap to be metered."[4]_
           | 
           | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter
           | 
           | It was never meant to be taken as $0:
           | 
           | For a long time water was paid for in a flat rate, and one
           | could certainly envisage where electricity was the same: the
           | power company would pick some kind of median/average to
           | charge folks.. Of course most folks have metered water/sewage
           | nowadays, and so metered electricity is less strange.
        
           | Georgelemental wrote:
           | > (except perhaps hydro for reasonable definitions of
           | "reliable").
           | 
           | And geothermal, as you mention below. But, like hydro, it
           | only works in certain geographic areas
        
         | yongjik wrote:
         | The nice thing about nuclear is that you can plan how much
         | electricity you're going to generate. (Well, not counting
         | project delays and stuff...)
         | 
         | Ergo, if you're using nuclear and energy became "too cheap to
         | meter" then someone was not doing their job properly. If Tesla
         | overestimated market demand and has to give away cars for free,
         | would you say it means Tesla is the car of the future?
        
         | helsinkiandrew wrote:
         | > yet their energy prices aren't "too cheap to meter"
         | 
         | French nuclear power is run by EDF, which although 85% owned by
         | the French government has "a mandate to make a profit for its
         | shareholders"
        
           | guerby wrote:
           | EDF is 100% owned by the french government since 20230608:
           | 
           | https://presse.economie.gouv.fr/08062023-letat-redevient-
           | lac...
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | France is its own unique thing because of how the government
         | paid for so many things out of pocket they ended up losing
         | money selling at wholesale rates. Safe Nuclear ended up being a
         | lot more expensive than earlier predictions.
         | 
         | It's not some design issue that you can fix with small modular
         | reactors or whatever. Every time anything significant goes
         | wrong people kept adding systems to prevent it happening again.
         | Sometimes that's something physical like a wall or redundant
         | system, and other times it's longer procedures and more
         | paperwork. This has been great for avoiding another SL-1, 3
         | mile island etc, but mitigating every possible risks isn't
         | cheap. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SL-1
         | 
         | For example there was once an expensive issue where foreign
         | material fell into the spent fuel pool where fixing it
         | significantly extended an outage at a single reactor so now
         | everyone working on anything at any reactor takes significant
         | steps to mitigate that risk. Great things working as intended
         | except now something that might have cost 100k now costs
         | significantly more because of that mitigation effort.
         | 
         | Extend that to any significant issue across hundreds of
         | reactors and 50+ years and suddenly triple checking to avoid
         | every fuck up means doing anything is really expensive. Worse
         | very little of it is wasted effort, there's just far more ways
         | to fuck up in practice than in theory.
         | 
         | PS: I do believe it's possible to have safe and cheap nuclear
         | power, it's just going to look very different than what we're
         | doing today.
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | Operating costs for a coal-fired power plant, a nuclear reactor
         | power plant, and a solar-battery power plant (requirement:
         | steady power output 24-7) are all pretty comparable these days.
         | Upfront constuction costs on nuclear are higher than others, so
         | nuclear comes out near the top of the cost envelope. A lot also
         | depends on variable costs of uranium ore and the fuel rod
         | production process.
         | 
         | While a 1 GW coal plant might burn as much as 4 million tons of
         | coal a year, a comparable nuclear power plant only consumes
         | some 30 tons of fuels rods per year - but depending on ore
         | quality and U-235 enrichment level, that might translate to
         | 300,000 tons of uranium ore that needs to be mined and
         | converted into fuel rods through an expensive multi-step
         | process. Coal is much dirtier in terms of average daily
         | emissions (though there's always the catastrophic failure risk
         | with nuclear).
         | 
         | Solar / wind / storage operating costs are limited to
         | maintenance and battery replacement, which can still be
         | considerable.
        
         | gwervc wrote:
         | Because the price of electricity is (unfairly) based on gas
         | price by EU regulations, imposed by Germany. One of the
         | propositions of one party running for the next election is to
         | renegotiate this so we can use our cheap electricity as the
         | competitive advantage it is.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | That's because it's a state run system and it really isn't that
         | cheap. The nuclear operators are shielded from market rates by
         | the government. The way that works is that they get a
         | guaranteed price per kwh in long multi year deals, regardless
         | of what the market does. That's actually true in most countries
         | that operate nuclear plants. Without those guarantees, it's to
         | risky of a thing to do financially for investors.
         | 
         | What they charge customers in France is also controlled by the
         | government (and not the same thing). The difference is simply
         | made up by tax payer money. Of course being connected to the
         | rest of the European market and also having a lot of their own
         | renewables, this just means that bill is getting larger and
         | larger for the French government whenever there is a surplus of
         | wind and solar. Which is probably happening quite often now.
         | 
         | Here are some details on a deal the French government struck
         | with nuclear operator EDF recently:
         | https://www.clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication...
         | 
         | It's indeed a great example why commercial nuclear plants
         | without extensive state support is not really a thing. Most
         | places that have nuclear plants, also feature heavy government
         | involvement and state funding. That plant that Bill Gates is
         | involved with that recently started construction work, only
         | still exists because of extensive state involvement.
        
         | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
         | Why would any commercial energy producer, of any variety
         | (nuclear, coal, solar, wind, etc), put money into building
         | excess capacity to the point that the marginal profit of extra
         | production is zero?
        
       | gwbas1c wrote:
       | http://web.archive.org/web/20240617071413/https://fortune.co...
        
       | jnsie wrote:
       | Potentially ignorant question. How does this impact the consumer?
       | Do they actually get paid/credited for electricity used?
        
         | NullPrefix wrote:
         | transmission charges still apply
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | Consumers don't pay the market rate, because that'd expose them
         | to price shocks (see: the griddy fiasco in texas a few years
         | ago). They get a fixed rate from their utility.
        
           | guerby wrote:
           | In France consumers with below 36kVA grid connection can
           | choose to pay state fixed prices, or they can choose various
           | market offers, here is the official list of electricity
           | providers:
           | 
           | https://www.enedis.fr/liste-des-fournisseurs-delectricite
        
             | pyrale wrote:
             | State-fixed prices are rarely interesting though, as the
             | price is calculated to be above-market.
        
           | nawitus wrote:
           | That depends on the consumer (and market I guess). In many
           | countries in Europe that is an option. (Although there should
           | be some extra fees on top).
        
       | Neil44 wrote:
       | This happens frequently in the UK too, if you have a compatible
       | supplier you can set it up to charge your EV or some batteries
       | during negative spikes. Ultimately if enough people were set up
       | that way then prices would not get negative I suppose.
       | 
       | * https://octopus.energy/smart/agile/
        
         | risyachka wrote:
         | I wonder how many people need to do that in order for it to
         | become not negative.
        
           | Neil44 wrote:
           | Interesting question! Maybe someone cleverer than me can work
           | it out :)
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | That's pretty much the whole dilemma now with
           | decarbonization. We know how to generate electricity very
           | cheaply with solar and wind. We just don't know how to do it
           | at the right time.
           | 
           | It will take a lot of investment in storage tech (beyond lots
           | of people using their EV car batteries as time-shifting
           | storage, though that's certainly a good use!) in order to get
           | prices smoothed out so that electricity generated at 1PM can
           | be used at 11PM.
        
             | jayflux wrote:
             | > We know how to generate electricity very cheaply with
             | solar and wind. We just don't know how to do it at the
             | right time
             | 
             | I'm not sure this needs to be a goal to be honest.
             | 
             | It's more practical for us to become accustomed to agile
             | tariffs and have our own batteries + charging the car when
             | prices drop than to hope for large scale storage solutions.
             | In the UK the average solar install now includes batteries
             | as prices come down on them.
             | 
             | We can already do this today fairly easily, and with open
             | tariff APIs plus more integrated devices it will become
             | easier.
        
         | manquer wrote:
         | It is complex, wholesale prices generally do not reflect in
         | retail directly. even when suppliers have flexible pricing and
         | support V2G /buying from users solar etc, there is only only
         | some correlation not 100% pass through of rates.
         | 
         | There are also technical and economic reasons this may not work
         | beyond just inelastic vendor pricing, there is cost to
         | transmission(loss) and all the step down that has to happen
         | before electricity is at your door, that cost will be always
         | positive so it may not actually be net positive.
         | 
         | At steep enough negative pricing this could be profitable,
         | however at that point power plants with the highest costs and
         | easiest scale down/ shut down procedures will start acting.
         | 
         | Projects like the one at Dinorwig (pumped hydro-storage) are
         | more viable solution for excess capacity.
        
           | remus wrote:
           | > Projects like the one at Dinorwig (pumped hydro-storage)
           | are more viable solution for excess capacity.
           | 
           | I think this is a little simplistic. Pumped hydro is very
           | reliant on finding suitable geography which ultimately limits
           | the potential capacity. I think it's more likely that grids
           | of the future will rely on a variety of storage solutions
           | (pumped hydro, consumer EVs, grid scale batteries etc.) and
           | smarter load-shedding rather than any single solution being
           | dominant.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | This is a bit misleading. Pumped hydro needs vertical
             | relieve, but in places where vertical relief exists the
             | potential is very large. It does _not_ need to be on or
             | even near any existing watercourse (although it can be
             | piggybacked onto a reservoir that is, by adding another
             | reservoir at higher elevation.)
        
             | pyrale wrote:
             | Load scheduling driven by price incentives (namely hot
             | water) is already the largest flexibility source in France
             | iirc. I'm not sure that there is much difference between
             | price-driven flexibility and smart grids though (in that
             | most of the benefit is captured by communicating prices
             | ahead of time rather than dynamic load modulation)
        
             | manquer wrote:
             | I meant to imply grid scale solutions not just pumped hydro
             | only. The point was end customers based storage is not cost
             | effective option for negative pricing, which will be be
             | almost always marginally negative just shy of the cost of
             | plants to scale down their generation.
             | 
             | Pumped hydro has been the cheapest by far and proven at
             | scale far beyond any other solution including grid scale
             | batteries, but only works in specific geographies and up to
             | a fixed scale.
             | 
             | Grid scale batteries, pumped hydro, molten salts or other
             | grid scale storage are all viable options provided TCO is
             | cheaper than arbitrage that comes from price fluctuations.
             | 
             | This is no different than arbitrage in say commodity
             | markets by taking delivery of the goods like say how U.S.
             | government is using its strategic oil reserves these days.
        
         | kieranmaine wrote:
         | Octopus and OVO also offer EV tariffs where you get a cheaper
         | kWh price if you let them control when your EV is charged. You
         | can always override the smart charging but you pay the standard
         | rate.
         | 
         | * https://octopus.energy/smart/intelligent-octopus-go/ - 7.5p
         | per kWh
         | 
         | * https://www.ovoenergy.com/electric-cars/charge-anytime - 7p
         | per kWh
        
         | guerby wrote:
         | All the analysis I can find talk only about the spot price
         | being negative.
         | 
         | But what matters for economics is the volume exchanged at this
         | negative price, that is if you are a buyer with infinite
         | capacity to absorb kWh how much money you'll make yearly?
         | 
         | Anyone with a good URL?
        
           | ragebol wrote:
           | No URL, but if demand were there to take all that in, the
           | demand would obviously go up. But there is not enough demand,
           | so the capacity is far from infinite. The best fix for
           | negative prices is negative prices, the demand will come.
           | 
           | I'm still curious about the actual MWh's traded for negative
           | prices as well
        
             | baq wrote:
             | > the demand will come
             | 
             | Or... the supply will go away _shudders_
        
             | pyrale wrote:
             | Demand is not that flexible, especially intraday. Negative
             | prices tend to be served by production program adjustments.
        
           | pyrale wrote:
           | Afaik most of the energy is traded otc, spot markets are a
           | tiny fraction of what gets delivered.
           | 
           | But that fraction is still interesting: since p=c must be
           | respected, and there is always some small delta that is hard
           | to predict and has to be covered. The spot price is not
           | relevant to consumer prices, but it is relevant to the cost
           | for energy providers to fine-tune their supply.
        
       | riffraff wrote:
       | AFAIK this happens fairly regularly in some northern european
       | countries (NL and DE come to mind) due to wind over-production.
       | The sooner we get cheap grid storage, the better.
        
         | ragebol wrote:
         | Fairly regularly indeed. The bare EPEX spot price, before taxes
         | etc, is on track to be at least 500 hours this year in NL.
         | (About 300h in 2923 iirc)
         | 
         | MartienVisser on twitter has some great graphs about the energy
         | market, but I'm on my phone and banned twitter from that.
        
         | jtwaleson wrote:
         | I'm in NL and often use this website to check for day-ahead
         | pricing: https://energie.anwb.nl/actuele-tarieven
         | 
         | It's very frequent indeed. I noticed that it's mostly during
         | sunny days in late spring / summer / early fall (solar). Much
         | more rare is randomly at night (stormy days).
         | 
         | Solar is still pretty small in national grid charts, but I
         | suspect that residential solar just reduces demand from the
         | grid and doesn't show up as production.
        
       | littlestymaar wrote:
       | Econ 101: with a marginal cost equal to zero, a competitive
       | electricity market (with a price driven to marginal cost because
       | of competition) cannot be sustainable because electricity price
       | it cannot pay for the fixed costs.
       | 
       | Solution: we must stop electricity pricing based on _energy_
       | produced (which made sense when using fossil fuel) and switch to
       | a pricing mechanism where you pay for available _power_ because
       | that 's where the marginal cost is increasing.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Many markets already do this: for example California pays
         | generators a mixed rate per kWh and kW.
         | 
         | But just pricing per kWh can work. If the limit is available
         | capacity at 6PM, then those kWh are the most profitable and
         | capacity will be built to meet demand at 6PM.
        
         | digdugdirk wrote:
         | I'm intrigued. But with an electrical grid that requires a
         | constant match between electricity generation and consumption,
         | how would you ensure the stability of a thing when its
         | controlling mechanism (pricing) is its own derivative?
        
         | pyrale wrote:
         | That's the goal of the capacity market.
         | 
         | https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/markets-and-consumers/cap...
        
       | helsinkiandrew wrote:
       | It's only been negative for a few hours in the past year though.
       | 
       | https://data.nordpoolgroup.com/auction/day-ahead/prices?deli...
        
       | rig666 wrote:
       | I had a friend recently tell me about how his excess power is put
       | back into the grid and how he hopes our area sees negative rates
       | eventually like this.
       | 
       | My cynical side was quick to point out that I would fire up my
       | crypto miners if electricity was free for a few hours a day.
       | After talking to him more I realized we both had different take
       | aways from the story of "the tragedy of the commons" I lightened
       | the conversation up by informing him he could do folding from
       | home for a few hours to make sure his excess power went to a
       | noble cause & thwart my zero sum approach.
        
         | Damogran6 wrote:
         | My aging mind can't remember the actual facts but it was
         | determined that when someone has significantly more power than
         | they had a need for (say, full batteries and a whole lot of
         | solar) that it opened up interesting behaviors. We try hard to
         | be as efficient as possible, but when you don't have to, it
         | leads to interesting stuff. (like leave the lights on, leave
         | the windows open with a space heater next to you, etc.)
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | Yes, mine is when I'm at a hotel I set the AC much cooler
           | than I would at home, and I take really long showers.
        
           | stoperaticless wrote:
           | Name for it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
        
           | kypro wrote:
           | I was told that in Russia nat gas is so cheap that they keep
           | the heating on 24/7 and will often just open windows to
           | regulate temperature. No idea how true this is and whether it
           | just applies to offices / apartment complexes but this is
           | what I was told.
        
             | selimthegrim wrote:
             | District heating maybe
        
             | heavenlyblue wrote:
             | My uncle in Moscow used to have his gas cooker on all the
             | time in the kitchen.
        
             | mopsi wrote:
             | That's true. Proper ventilation with heat exchangers and
             | all that is a very recent thing and not very widespread.
             | Almost the entire housing stock, offices and other
             | buildings were built without modern ventilation. Instead,
             | buildings got windows with small separately openable
             | sections (1/6 of the opening) known as _fortochkas_ [1] for
             | ventilation. They were a standard element of mass-built
             | commieblocks [2] and it was common to overheat buildings so
             | much that ventilation windows were left open all the time
             | even in the winter. In modern times, when energy has a
             | cost, they are often replaced with the latest well-
             | insulated windows and kept shut to save money, which leads
             | to molding issues due to insufficient ventilation.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortochka
             | 
             | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchevka
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | It's true! Old apartment buildings and offices were
             | designed with district heating in mind.
             | 
             | The heating is provided via hot water radiators that are
             | not at all adjustable, there are no thermostats in
             | individual apartments! So if the weather is not very cold,
             | your apartment can become too hot. While it's still sub-
             | freezing outside.
             | 
             | Newer apartment buildings have adjustable radiators with
             | thermostatic valves, but it's far from common.
        
         | djmips wrote:
         | Is Folding a good use of computing resources and power? Do they
         | have any wins?
        
         | kelnos wrote:
         | > _I would fire up my crypto miners if electricity was free for
         | a few hours a day_
         | 
         | I dunno, if electricity was free only for a few hours, I would
         | use it to charge batteries, and then use that stored
         | electricity later in the day when it's _not_ free.
         | 
         | If electricity was free most or all of the time, and/or if I
         | could store more than I could use, then sure, I'd probably use
         | it for unnecessary things that some might consider wasteful
         | (not crypto mining; I'm allergic).
        
           | jimbobthrowawy wrote:
           | If the price swings were frequent and steep enough, you could
           | probably have your batteries send power back to the grid when
           | the price gets high.
           | 
           | I doubt the economics work, but I'd love to live in a world
           | where a lot of the grid's battery storage is based on backup
           | batteries people have at their houses with the added bonus of
           | reducing their billing costs.
        
         | countvonbalzac wrote:
         | Is folding at home still relevant after alpha fold?
        
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