[HN Gopher] Satellite data show electromagnetic anomalies 19 day...
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       Satellite data show electromagnetic anomalies 19 days before Turkey
       earthquake
        
       Author : anigbrowl
       Score  : 62 points
       Date   : 2024-06-13 00:05 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (phys.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (phys.org)
        
       | lolc wrote:
       | I find the idea pretty wild that we should be able to predict
       | earthquakes within days. My understanding is that earthquakes can
       | be predicted like bridge collapses can be predicted. You can
       | collect signs of a developing fault, but the uncertainty of when
       | it rips is measured in years. And if your model is lacking for
       | the specific instance, you'll misjudge the chances by orders of
       | magnitude.
       | 
       | So I read papers like this one as hopeless fishing expeditions.
       | But if the fishing expedition turns up with a good catch anyway,
       | people will look into it more. Unfortunately I'm not versed
       | enough to asses their catch. Will wait for a geologist friend for
       | context.
        
         | JPLeRouzic wrote:
         | I am a layperson, but it seems to me that scientists are
         | discussing these topics for at least a decade (for example
         | since L'Aquila in 2009): See section 2.2:
         | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.03652
         | 
         | or
         | 
         | https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2782
         | 
         | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2205.06592
         | 
         | https://arxiv.org/abs/0910.0797
        
           | T-A wrote:
           | Longer than that. This guy,
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Sornette
           | 
           | made a name for himself a couple of decades ago with an
           | approach to predicting earthquakes, financial crashes and
           | other catastrophes:
           | 
           | https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.022581999
        
       | lxgr wrote:
       | Between this and other potential electromagnetic phenomena like
       | earthquake lights (which might or might not be power lines
       | swinging and shorting out, creating sparks, or transformers
       | blowing up), there's a lot we don't understand about earthquakes
       | yet.
       | 
       | Piezoelectricity is one of the proposed mechanisms that might
       | explain both earthquake lights and animal behavior changes
       | minutes or hours before the actual shocks start.
        
       | proee wrote:
       | Rolling this technology out in practice is quite challenging.
       | 
       | How do you trigger "The Alarm" for a given area? How much of a
       | guard band do you put around the event and what happens when you
       | have false positives? Do you call everyone back to the region and
       | say sorry it was a false alarm, only for it to trigger a week
       | later! Would not want to be the one calling the shots on this.
       | 
       | It also seems like a good technology to throw into a movie plot -
       | Super Mega Quake... starring Dwyane Johnson.
        
       | cjensen wrote:
       | This is junk. They claim "anomalies" and fail to state the
       | statistical odds of this anomaly occurring globally and the odds
       | for this particular location. They also examine precisely one
       | large earthquake rather than even considering looking at
       | earthquakes in general.
       | 
       | "My cat walked across the keyboard right before the large
       | earthquake" is not statistically significant.
        
         | yinser wrote:
         | As Taleb would say, "Fooled by randomness"
        
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       (page generated 2024-06-14 23:01 UTC)