[HN Gopher] Star botanist likely made up data about nutritional ...
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       Star botanist likely made up data about nutritional supplements,
       new probe finds
        
       Author : jyunwai
       Score  : 119 points
       Date   : 2024-06-12 14:59 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | ctoth wrote:
       | Disclaimer: I don't know anything about this.
       | 
       | My narrative detector is going off.
       | 
       | The guy found that most supplements didn't actually have real
       | ingredients, which is incredibly believable. The guy is now being
       | discredited. Does this mean Supplements were fine all along?
       | Somehow I doubt this! Sketchy people on both sides--why are so
       | many industries like this? Supplements are an obvious one but
       | have you tried buying a mattress/adjustable bed recently?
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | The article mentions that he has conflicts of interest.
         | 
         | Possibly his intent was to discredit _some_ supplements in
         | order to boost others?
        
         | baxtr wrote:
         | _> Thompson, now a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University,
         | sparked the initial inquiry. As an undergraduate, he and
         | Newmaster co-authored a 2014 paper on forest plant diversity,
         | published in Biodiversity and Conservation. Years later, while
         | completing his Ph.D. at the University of British Columbia
         | (UBC), Thompson began to suspect that Newmaster had repurposed
         | data from a different study by another student._
         | 
         | Sounds legit to me. I think this is more likely explanation due
         | to Occams razor.
        
       | blackeyeblitzar wrote:
       | I don't really understand what the evidence was that led to
       | others suspecting falsification here. But in general, the review
       | process for studies has a lot that it simply cannot verify. This
       | is why we need a higher degree of skepticism even around peer
       | reviewed studies and also why we need to create incentives for
       | people who try to reproduce findings, rather than only trying to
       | reward new findings.
        
         | nextos wrote:
         | We also need reproducible results and well-annotated data. In
         | life sciences, there are few to no incentives for making things
         | reproducible. Reproducibility has the potential to expose lots
         | of scams, perhaps even during review stage.
         | 
         | The typical scenario right now is that you get access to raw
         | data, often through an application, that can take months and
         | requires having an ethics committee to oversee your work. So,
         | unless you are at an academic institution, you can't get access
         | to any raw data that contains personal information. Raw data
         | will be often poorly annotated and you will need to spend weeks
         | to figure things out, and sometimes significant computing
         | resources to preprocess it. Then, good luck running some badly
         | coded scripts to get the results reported in the article.
         | 
         | Studies should provide preprocessed data that has been
         | anonymized and can be freely shared, _one-click_ reproducible
         | results from preprocessed data, well-annotated raw data, and
         | simpler procedures to get access to raw data. For example, a
         | tarball with code, preprocessed data, and a makefile to turn
         | preprocessed data into results reported in the article. Bonus
         | points if dependencies are reproducible, with e.g. a Nix flake.
        
           | Brybry wrote:
           | > Then, good luck running some badly coded scripts to get the
           | results reported in the article.
           | 
           | I think even this part is unlikely? My dad was a statistician
           | involved in research and he didn't provide copies of his SAS
           | programs/scripts to authors.
           | 
           | I believe the papers would list what tests he performed but
           | there'd be no easy to way to reproduce the exact script for
           | tests (and certainly no easy way to reproduce exact
           | charts/graphs/maps).
        
             | nextos wrote:
             | These days, most top journals require you to provide code
             | in order to publish.
             | 
             | But there are zero checks made, code is very often
             | incomplete, full of local paths specific to the HPC where
             | things were run in, etc.
        
               | stonogo wrote:
               | Supercomputing 24 has a reproducibility program involving
               | Chameleon Cloud as infrastructure, and authors are
               | expected to get their code running there for the purpose.
               | It's a massive undertaking but it's looking promising.
        
       | killjoywashere wrote:
       | I'd like to think that Hanlon's Razor applies, but it appears
       | even the original investigators found faults. I sort of wonder if
       | they were operating under a more restrictive mandate?
       | 
       | Also, it doesn't seem that his errors are any validation of the
       | supplements industry
       | 
       | "Their influential paper in BMC Medicine, and subsequent work
       | based on Newmaster's approach, found that many supplements lacked
       | ingredients listed on their labels and that toxic contaminants
       | tainted others. Some stores pulled products from their shelves,
       | and several major supplement companies embraced Newmaster's work,
       | paying large sums for quality testing by companies Newmaster
       | established just prior to the publication of the paper. "
       | 
       | So, he basically generated demand for testing through his own
       | companies. I mean, if this guy was selling cleaning products,
       | tires, or perfume, all's fair in love and war. I think the trick
       | is his academic appointment. If a PhD material scientist or
       | chemist at a university said what the average tire or perfume
       | commercial says, she'd probably find an academic investigation
       | coming down on her head too.
        
       | johnsillings wrote:
       | these exposes where famous scientists doctor their data are so
       | depressing
        
       | quercusa wrote:
       | This could trigger some skepticism:
       | 
       | Some stores pulled products from their shelves, and several major
       | supplement companies embraced Newmaster's work, paying large sums
       | for quality testing by _companies Newmaster established just
       | prior to the publication of the paper._
        
         | giarc wrote:
         | I don't think that alone is an issue. It could be seen as just
         | commercializing the research he had done in the university
         | setting. He would have to disclose this in publications (and
         | perhaps he didn't). The university would have to approve (and
         | take their cut). The issue is he seems to have fabricated
         | results that prompted large companies to look for testing and
         | certification and he was there with open arms (and pockets). If
         | some other lab had come out and said "these products don't
         | contain what they say they do" and the vitamin companies
         | contracted his lab, then he wouldn't be in this situation.
        
       | mekoka wrote:
       | _> A 2022 Science investigation found evidence of a broader
       | pattern of fabrication and data manipulation in Newmaster's
       | speeches, teaching, biographical statements, and scholarly
       | writings over 2 decades. Evidence also suggested Newmaster
       | embellished or simply invented findings or accomplishments, as
       | well as claimed credit for work by others._
       | 
       | What I find puzzling about this kind of stories is that the
       | pattern of behavior is usually obvious to all who know the
       | person. Yet, it'll take years before they're found out. We all
       | know people like Newmaster. They may not be scientists, but we
       | recognize the more than usual tendency to exaggerate their
       | accomplishments, the padding of the truth, the selective amnesia
       | about giving credits where it's due. Even if you're just getting
       | to know them, hang around just for a bit and you'll see it, even
       | about meaningless stuff. It's what they do. And if you see it
       | even just once with someone, it should be enough to raise your bs
       | alarms about anything they say.
        
         | ryandrake wrote:
         | My pet theory: Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic
         | phony in what will almost certainly turn into a battle of wits
         | instead of a battle of facts.
         | 
         | Our entire society deifies charismatic phonies. They are the
         | ones that get elevated to the highest positions in politics and
         | the C-level business suite. They're always the heroic Main
         | Character. They build up cult followings. They often look so
         | good, speak so smoothly and have those irresistible Ivy League
         | mannerisms. You're _supposed_ to like them and help elevate
         | them even higher.
         | 
         | Do you want to expose this person? The Main Character? You
         | better be right, and you better be ready to have the full force
         | of his charm, persuasion, and cult following at your throat
         | forever.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic phony in
           | what will almost certainly turn into a battle of wits instead
           | of a battle of facts_
           | 
           | I've met some incredibly unlikeable fraudsters. The bottom
           | line is pursuing them would mean giving up months of my life
           | in a tedious process. In many cases, the fraud seems stupid
           | enough that it's not okay, but just not worth sacrificing
           | life time over.
        
             | brnt wrote:
             | This. It takes tons of energy especially if your surrounded
             | with admirers (I suppose these types tend to gather
             | undiscerning yes men).
             | 
             | I have fled a renowned institute for this reason. You are
             | probably going to sacrifice your career over it either way,
             | because if you're not hopping on their gravy train...
        
               | SlightlyLeftPad wrote:
               | This is a perfect example of "I'm sure it will work
               | itself out naturally." It's going to continue happening
               | and it really just makes me more confident in the process
               | around reviews and science in general. It shouldn't fall
               | on individuals to weed this out but it should absolutely
               | fall on the process to.
        
             | resource_waste wrote:
             | >just not worth sacrificing life time over.
             | 
             | Yep, ready to alienate 30-50% of your friends, even though
             | you were 'right'.
             | 
             | Do this enough times and you only have a few percentage
             | left. "These are your true friends". There is no
             | correlation. I watched someone rage over chapstick usage,
             | they were right, but it looked like a silly debate.
             | 
             | I like the Stoics and those of virtue that sacrifice
             | themselves for everyone else. Its genuinely appreciated if
             | I can take a 30,000 ft high view. Best of luck doing it
             | when humans live on the ground.
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | Psst. Anonymous leaks with hard evidence (that doesn't lead
             | to you) is best
        
           | kubb wrote:
           | Exactly, if you call them out, they'll paint you as a mean
           | jerk, and discredit you.
        
             | swader999 wrote:
             | I blame the society that elevates hurt feelings above
             | truth.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | >Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic phony in
           | what will almost certainly turn into a battle of wits instead
           | of a battle of facts.
           | 
           | There's a difference between somebody bullshitting at a party
           | and doing so in a professional setting.
           | 
           | I've seen several baffling instances of universities taking
           | years to investigate obvious things and then in the end
           | effectively doing nothing. Like really clear falsification
           | situations that should just get several people fired and
           | other people sanctioned for not noticing.
           | 
           | https://www.science.org/content/article/researchers-plan-
           | ret...
           | 
           | Like here, there's people there who should just be booted
           | from the university. It took two years for anybody to even
           | retract the paper. The professor in question had several
           | black marks for what I'd call fraud, and yet still hold a
           | position at the University of Minnesota. Which at this point
           | isn't the researcher's fault but the university's.
        
             | lukan wrote:
             | "There's a difference between somebody bullshitting at a
             | party and doing so in a professional setting."
             | 
             | It is, but I would say the people in the former basket, are
             | also likely to be found in the second basket.
        
         | crooked-v wrote:
         | Sounds like a classic missing stair situation
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_stair).
        
         | Aurornis wrote:
         | I was in a situation with some similarities once. There were
         | several factors that protected the person:
         | 
         | 1. They were charismatic, charming, and likable. Fun to be
         | around. But they also had an angry/mean side that started to
         | come out when things weren't going their way. People around
         | them were trained to do things that brought out the fun side
         | and avoid things that brought out the mean side.
         | 
         | 2. They built their circle out of people who were
         | impressionable and had a lot to gain by being part of the
         | circle: Early career people, people desperate to climb the
         | ladder, and people who wanted a lot of praise. There was an
         | implicit understanding that as long as you didn't rock the
         | boat, you just had to put up with everything for a couple years
         | before pivoting to your dream position. If you exposed the
         | person, your own resume might look questionable, so you had to
         | go along with it.
         | 
         | 3. Anyone who actually questioned them was marked for
         | destruction. They would do everything in their power to
         | discredit you, undermine your work, interfere with things you
         | were doing, argue against promotions, and otherwise bring your
         | career to a halt. It was all done out in the open, as a warning
         | shot to anyone else who questioned it. People notice.
         | 
         | For a famous example, look into the Lance Armstrong story. He
         | didn't just cheat, he tried to destroy the lives of anyone who
         | might get in his way. He's a charismatic celebrity, so to this
         | day he continues to whitewash his history by being nice and
         | likable. Even after everything that has been revealed and
         | admitted, people will _still_ jump to his defense by
         | substituting a lesser narrative and defending that. The common
         | defense is  "Yeah, well, everyone in cycling does doping!" even
         | though doping is one of the least concerning things Lance
         | Armstrong did.
         | 
         | Another upsetting factor is that people develop parasocial
         | relationships with these grifters and will go to great lengths
         | to dismiss or downplay their problems. Look at the recent
         | issues with Andrew Huberman for a good example. Not only has
         | his grasp of science been called into question on many topics,
         | but his personal life has been exposed as being quite different
         | than the ultra-righteous fatherly figure that he plays on his
         | podcast. Yet despite this, people who love his podcast will
         | rush to his defense and try to downplay the problems. Like the
         | above story, people try to downplay the revelations about his
         | personal life as if he made a mistake and "cheated on his
         | girlfriend", when the actual allegations are more far-reaching
         | and establish a chronic pattern of dishonesty.
        
         | fidotron wrote:
         | I have worked with a few people many on here would lionize, and
         | the tendency to exaggerate their accomplishments and selective
         | amnesia wrt crediting anyone else were common to all of them,
         | which is how they maintain their status. It is so pervasive at
         | the top of some tech spheres I honestly wonder if it is
         | necessary to get there.
         | 
         | Ironically some of the best to directly work with have been
         | famous assholes or completely obscure.
        
       | iLoveOncall wrote:
       | A guaranteed, long, prison sentence is the only long term
       | solution to avoid the problem
       | 
       | They cost society billions if not trillions of dollars in follow
       | up research, industry investments and consumers spendings. Some
       | of them cost lives. Some thousands if not much more.
        
       | JoeAltmaier wrote:
       | So, do it again. Was anybody surprised that imported
       | 'supplements' had no ingredients listed?
        
       | A_D_E_P_T wrote:
       | The notion that DNA barcoding could have been used to identify
       | supplement ingredients at scale was always very unlikely.
       | 
       | To make 1kg of a common type of gingko extract, you take 20kg of
       | dry plant matter, grind it all to a very fine powder, extract it
       | in a boiling solvent (often hexane or methanol), filter it under
       | pressure, boil off as much of the solvent as you can, and then
       | you spray-dry or freeze-dry it.
       | 
       | This process would leave essentially _no intact DNA._
       | 
       | I think that the "DNA barcoding" notion was formulated by
       | somebody who didn't understand how extracts are made, and the
       | media just ran with it.
       | 
       | What's funny is that rice flour is used as a common filler
       | ingredient in supplements. Imagine barcoding a gingko product and
       | getting "100% Rice" in your DNA report. And yet that would have
       | been possible with even the most scrupulously honest products.
        
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