[HN Gopher] Fusion tech finds geothermal energy application
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Fusion tech finds geothermal energy application
        
       Author : Lisdexamfeta
       Score  : 109 points
       Date   : 2024-06-03 18:46 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (spectrum.ieee.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (spectrum.ieee.org)
        
       | eluketronic wrote:
       | This is pretty interesting but it seems like there's a massive
       | component of this system that is yet to be proven viable--from
       | the article: "Drilling a hole is challenging enough," says
       | Tester. "But actually running the reservoir and getting the
       | energy out of the ground safely may be something very, very far
       | off in the future."
       | 
       | Is there any existing +3km deep geothermal well energy system in
       | use?
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | And what do you make the pipes out of that do not get destroyed
         | from living at those depths?
        
           | TheDudeMan wrote:
           | Steel
        
         | Lisdexamfeta wrote:
         | Utah FORGE is the deepest I'm aware of:
         | https://utahforge.com/project-research. Well 58-32 goes to
         | 2.2km. 78B-32 goes to 2.9km. 16B(78)-32 appears to break 3km.
         | 
         | But FORGE is mostly based around research, from what I
         | understand, rather than rolling out broad-based commercial
         | geothermal.
        
         | auspiv wrote:
         | Fervo Energy is making great progress in this area. They've
         | drilled a injector/producer pair, frac'd between them (exactly
         | like oil/gas), and pump water at ~60 L/s. Whatever goes into
         | the injector comes out the producer a few hours later much
         | hotter. Their proof of concept produces 3 MW, and uses ~1MW to
         | power the injection pumps. They are doing a full scale plant in
         | Utah now, and expect ~8 MW net for each injector/producer pair.
         | 
         | https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/5704/
         | 
         | https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-breaks-ground-on-the-wo...
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | 3km would be far below average for new oil and gas wells in
         | America. Climate change sucks but the technology for punching
         | holes in the ground with extreme aspect ratios is really cool.
         | A reason I am more interested in geothermal than nuclear for
         | "base load" generation is because geothermal can reuse our
         | existing drilling technology and workforce.
        
           | audunw wrote:
           | Yeah, and think about the amount of political support you
           | could get for geothermal projects if workers from the oil and
           | gas sector could see a clear and easy path to adapt their
           | skills.
           | 
           | Globally viable geothermal power generation would be an
           | absolute game changer for fighting climate change. It doesn't
           | have to be better than nuclear. If it's even close to being
           | as good, the benefits of getting ex oil/gas people/companies
           | on board would more than outweigh the difference. The growth
           | rate could potentially hit levels that make a substantial
           | impact on climate change within a decade of the initial ramp.
        
             | zer00eyz wrote:
             | Geo would make a good transition project for the drilling
             | side of the business.
             | 
             | It's counter intuitive but if we did move that way we need
             | a LOT more petro infrastructure going forward. And without
             | irony it would be better for us.
             | 
             | Capturing all the wasted natural gas (that gets flared off)
             | as a reorient to maintain existing wells lowers carbon foot
             | print and makes the use of gas less attractive due to cost.
             | 
             | Petrochemical products aren't going away any time soon.
             | Unless we want to go back to hunting whales for things like
             | lubricants. Having useful plastics (because there are tons
             | of medical uses). And we're not getting rid of fertilizer
             | (cause feeding 8 billion people is hard).
             | 
             | There are reasons to keep the drilling side and the current
             | matinence side around doing what they do today while
             | lowering carbon foot print.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | > Petrochemical products aren't going away any time soon.
               | Unless we want to go back to hunting whales for things
               | like lubricants.
               | 
               | Synthetic lubricants (like Mobil-1) are a thing.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Lots of options if someone is willing to pay 5x as much.
               | Most options are better as well, but not 5x the price
               | better.
        
               | auspiv wrote:
               | "Synthetic oil is a lubricant consisting of chemical
               | compounds that are artificially modified or synthesised.
               | Synthetic lubricants can be manufactured using chemically
               | modified petroleum components rather than whole crude
               | oil, but can also be synthesized from other raw
               | materials. The base material, however, is still
               | overwhelmingly crude oil that is distilled and then
               | modified physically and chemically. The actual synthesis
               | process and composition of additives is generally a
               | commercial trade secret and will vary among producers."
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_oil
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Polyalphaolefins (PAOs), the most common synthetic oil,
               | are produced from ethylene. In the US, this
               | overwhelmingly means being produced from natural gas, as
               | US fracked gas is rich in ethane, the feedstock for
               | ethylene production.
               | 
               | https://www.cpchem.com/what-we-
               | do/solutions/polyalphaolefins...
        
               | zer00eyz wrote:
               | Penzoil is at least upfront that they make their
               | synthetics from natural gas.
               | 
               | Mobile-1 is happy to tell you that they dont use natural
               | gas.
               | 
               | But that doesn't mean that they dont use hydrocarbons
               | pumped from the ground to make it. Synthetic is just a
               | marketing term: http://xtremerevolution.net/a-defining-
               | moment-for-synthetics...
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | > Unless we want to go back to hunting whales for things
               | like lubricants. Having useful plastics
               | 
               | We know how to make both from many other process. PLA
               | plastic (commonly used for 3d printing) is commercially
               | made from plant sources as well (I wasn't able to find a
               | source for if it all is or just some). There are plant
               | based oils that are biodegradable that you could put into
               | any transmission today (meet OEM requirements) - they
               | cost about 6x what regular oil costs though. If that
               | isn't good enough the process to make synthetic oil just
               | need carbon (ideally in the form of CO, but we could use
               | CO2), water, and energy and from there we can engineer
               | any hydrocarbon you want - again at much high cost.
               | 
               | Pumping oil from the ground is cheap though, so it is
               | hard to compete with something else. We know how to do it
               | though. If you are a chemical engineer there is a lot of
               | money in reducing costs (though I'm not making any claim
               | this is possible, only if you can there is money)
        
               | zer00eyz wrote:
               | PLA does come from corn! And you're right that we do have
               | plant based sources that are 6x the cost for a lot of
               | things.
               | 
               | We dump fertilizer made from petrochemical on the plants
               | to grow them.
               | 
               | And that's the rub. I have to wonder how much oil we use,
               | to grow corn, to make ethanol, to save oil...
               | 
               | EDIT: I Had to do the math I needed to know!
               | 
               | 173.3 Bushels of corn per acre: https://www.nass.usda.gov
               | /Statistics_by_State/Iowa/Publicati...
               | 
               | 140 gallons of fossil fuel per acre of corn: https://www.
               | nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/Publicati...
               | 
               | A bushel of field corn can produce 2.77 gallons of
               | ethanol:
               | 
               | Assuming these numbers are right, it isnt so bad...
        
           | TheDudeMan wrote:
           | Technology and workforce are not the limitation of nuclear.
        
       | auspiv wrote:
       | "The deepest man-made hole, which extends 12,262 meters below the
       | surface of Siberia, took nearly 20 years to drill. As the shaft
       | went deeper, progress declined to less than a meter per hour--a
       | rate that finally decreased to zero as the work was abandoned in
       | 1992. That attempt and similar projects have made it clear that
       | conventional drills are no match for the high temperatures and
       | pressures deep in the Earth's crust."
       | 
       | This is true. Neither the article nor the CEO of the microwave
       | drill company say why.
       | 
       | At that depth, rock isn't a solid. It behaves plastically. The
       | traditional tri-cone bit used could make progress, but it kind of
       | just started "massaging" the rock. The bit (as all bits do) wore
       | out. They pulled the drill string out of the hole to put a new
       | bit on. The borehole would close back in during the multiple days
       | it took to pull 40kft of drill string out, change the bit, and
       | put it back in. Progress was not possible.
       | 
       | Unless the microwave drill includes some enormous cooling system
       | (that works 40kft down hole even when the drillstring is
       | removed!), they will face the same issues.
       | 
       | Also, separately, I saw pictures of the resulting lab-drilled
       | hole on LinkedIn the other day. The hole shows a high rugosity
       | (qualitative description of the roughness of a borehole wall).
       | Similar photo here - https://spectrum.ieee.org/media-
       | library/image-of-a-rock-surf.... That's a ugly hole, and would be
       | very difficult to run casing into it.
       | 
       | Further - traditional well drillers' #1 focus is controlling
       | pressure downhole (typically done by varying the density of the
       | drilling mud). If the pressure becomes too great, a blowout can
       | happen, which is bad news for everyone involved (see the BP
       | Deepwater Horizon incident). For geothermal wells, they
       | presumably will try to avoid hydrocarbons. However, rock far
       | above water boiling point can cause a BLEVE (boiling liquid
       | expanding vapor explosion), which is also undesirable. Super
       | curious to see how they intend to control bottomhole pressure
       | with statements like this - "Instead of pumping fluid and turning
       | a drill, we'll be burning and vaporizing rock and extracting gas,
       | which is much easier to pump than mud."
        
         | Terr_ wrote:
         | > At that depth, rock isn't a solid. It behaves plastically.
         | 
         | Sometimes this false-intuition comes out in sci-fi settings,
         | when some terrible force scars a planet or moon with a big
         | gash/puncture/fragmentation which appears semi-permanent,
         | rather than being (relatively) quickly erased as the thing--a
         | liquid on that scale--reflows back into a spheroid.
        
         | audunw wrote:
         | From what I understand the whole point of the solution is that
         | you don't have to remove their equivalent of a drill string
         | while drilling the whole. It can all be done in one continuous
         | operation. That's why it's so much faster.
         | 
         | I'm not sure they would need cooling down there? They're
         | continuously blasting gas down inside the waveguide, and the
         | gas can only escape on the outside around the waveguide.
         | 
         | Maybe it'll be like blowing air down a straw into honey.
         | 
         | I don't know the temperature of the gas they're pumping down,
         | but maybe it's colder than the rock at deeper depths which will
         | help keep the rock around the waveguide cool expect for at the
         | tip where the rock is being blasted.
         | 
         | Do they need a casing? I seem to remember reading somewhere
         | that the process of blasting the rock will harden the walls of
         | the hole. Though I'm curious how that would work at extreme
         | depths.
        
         | greenthrow wrote:
         | In the article they state the idea is the beam source would
         | stay on the surface.
        
         | gridspy wrote:
         | Fascinating! What would you consider the water source for a
         | BLEVE? There is no drilling liquid, so are you concerned about
         | drilling near a water source and the well becomes suddenly
         | contaminated with water, then steam?
        
       | krunck wrote:
       | If this microwave drill is vaporizing rock, how do they keep the
       | vapor from re-condensing on the drill, wave guide, and shaft
       | walls and eventually closing up the spaces between them causing
       | things to get stuck?>
        
         | Terr_ wrote:
         | Did some (metaphorical) digging, and it _sounds_ like they
         | expect most of the rock to condense as small particles inside a
         | purge-gas, before it has a chance to adhere somewhere else.
         | 
         | I imagine walls are an easier problem--just advance fast-enough
         | compared to the deposition rate, and the thickening is
         | controlled. Not sure about gradual buildup on the wave-guide,
         | but some periodic cleaning mechanism (further back, away from
         | rock-condensation) might be possible.
         | 
         | ____________
         | 
         | > Even though the rocks are being vaporized, it does not mean
         | that there is no material to be taken care of. "The gas will
         | quickly recondense back to a very fine ash, which will then be
         | taken up to surface by a purge gas. In our case, we will use
         | nitrogen", Matt [Houde] explains.
         | 
         | https://geoexpro.com/an-order-of-magnitude-more-energy-for-d...
         | 
         | > MIT's Paul Woskov, whose research is the bedrock of Quaise's
         | approach, spent a decade proving out the physics involved. The
         | system will use a beam of millimeter-wave energy--an
         | electromagnetic frequency in the territory of microwaves--
         | generated by a gyrotron on the surface. The microwave beam
         | shoots down the drill hole alongside a gas--nitrogen, air, or
         | argon--and evaporates layers of rock deep in the Earth. Then
         | the gas binds and carries the vaporized rock back up to the
         | surface like a plume of volcanic ash.
         | 
         | https://singularityhub.com/2022/02/14/startup-aims-to-drill-...
        
         | TheDudeMan wrote:
         | Likely condenses into dust in midair and gets blown out.
        
       | api wrote:
       | I've thought for quite some time that deep well geothermal could
       | be a sleeping giant in energy.
       | 
       | The Earth itself is a giant fission reactor and molten metal
       | thermal battery, but for some reason nobody thinks about it.
       | 
       | This would be far easier than fusion or even next generation full
       | cycle fission but it's barely funded.
        
         | kaliszad wrote:
         | There are so many energy projects that need probably orders of
         | magnitude less investment than even the geothermal You propose,
         | e.g. like the sodium fuel cell I have been writing about from
         | time to time.
         | 
         | For instance sodium can be used in its metal form directly to
         | produce electricity in a fuel cell e.g. as described in
         | US3730776A (https://patents.google.com/patent/US3730776A/en).
         | The fuel cell does not require any special materials, however
         | it still is a challenge to construct from the engineering point
         | of view. Also, the proposed design can be greatly improved with
         | additional knowledge about the reactions occurring. The
         | resulting sodium hydroxide solution can be recycled using the
         | well known Castner process, the "waste" hydrogen resulting from
         | both reactions can be used as fuel or for other industrial
         | processes.
         | 
         | Btw. the energy density of sodium metal is 3694 Wh/kg and 3555
         | Wh/litre - so an order of magnitude more than a typical Li-Ion
         | battery. Also, the advantage of decoupling capacity from power
         | is dramatic. Of course, you can also split the process of
         | storing and releasing of energy which can be an advantage. Last
         | but not least, sodium in its metal form is not hard to store or
         | to transport. At ~100degC it becomes liquid and therefore even
         | easier to transfer using regular steel pipes.
        
           | api wrote:
           | I think you meant more investment but yes.
           | 
           | That sodium battery sounds great for grid scale storage and
           | maybe aviation. The major problem with lithium there is
           | weight per kWh. Wouldn't use it in anything consumer because
           | liquid sodium loves to party.
        
       | sfink wrote:
       | Dumb question: is there any use for this for horizontal drilling?
       | I'm imagining scaling up the size of the drill head to the size
       | of a car-carrying bore hole, vaporizing the rock (or whatever
       | gets in your way) and using some of it to recondense into tunnel
       | liner, and blowing out the rest of the ash either back out the
       | whole tunnel or via vertical(ish) vent tubes drilled periodically
       | from the tunnel roof up.
       | 
       | Though maybe the tunnel liner part is too much of a stretch. It
       | sounds like the vaporized rock wants to turn to ash. I don't know
       | if there's a way of concentrating the once-solid parts and
       | keeping it hot enough while routing it to the tunnel wall. It
       | just seems like a cool set of problems to solve, resulting in a
       | self-contained (minus the energy source) burrowing drill that can
       | create arbitrarily long stone tunnels underneath (non-volcanic)
       | land.
       | 
       | DIY lava tubes!
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | The oil&gas industry makes heavy use of horizontal drilling
         | already. Say you own land with a nice pocket of $$$ buried
         | beneath, but you refuse them to put a well on your property.
         | That's when they turn to horizontal drilling.
         | 
         | Infamously stated as "if you have a milkshake and I have a
         | milkshake, but I have a straw that reaches your milkshake, then
         | I have all the milkshake".
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Modern laws are generally onto this, and if caught (a big if)
           | bad things happen. This is also why oil and gas companies buy
           | mineral rights anywhere they might be interested in - it lets
           | them take your oil without worrying about it.
           | 
           | Of course not everyone lives where law is caught up to this,
           | but it is a big deal and so most places where it matters the
           | courts know what is up.
        
             | njarboe wrote:
             | More like if they buy your mineral rights they now own your
             | oil and have the right to extract it.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | But it does allow you to consolidate the equipment and
             | access roads on a large piece of land because you could,
             | for instance, run a road across the narrow dimension of the
             | property and run the wells horizontally along the wider
             | dimension.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | I originally started to include about mineral rights, but
             | took it out. If you own the mineral rights and this happens
             | to you, then yes it becomes a case of stealing/theft
             | (whichever is more accurate in legalese). If you don't own
             | the rights and the rights owner allows for that $$$ to be
             | extracted, horizontal drilling is exactly how they'll get
             | to it.
             | 
             | Yes, the quote chosen did lead the meaning to stealing as
             | that's how it was used in the movie. I have just always
             | liked that quote. It didn't occur to me until your post how
             | it changes the intent of the entire comment.
        
           | GordonS wrote:
           | They can drill horizontally subsea too!
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | I think OP was asking whether this specific technology could
           | be used for horizontal drilling.
        
         | TheDudeMan wrote:
         | I don't think TBMs (tunnel boring machines) have the same
         | problems as mechanical deep-well drills. For instance, you can
         | replace worn components of a TBM without extracting the entire
         | mechanism from 100s of meters of earth. Whereas vaporizing a
         | 10-meter wide tunnel would require an insane amount of energy.
         | Plus you'd have to deal with the slag trying to flow back
         | toward your equipment.
        
       | greenthrow wrote:
       | Inaccurate title. "Finds" implies it is being or has been used.
       | More accurate would be "Fusion tech proposed to be used in
       | geothermal energy drilling."
        
       | gzu wrote:
       | It's like if only we put more resources towards potential
       | societal altering technologies like these instead of [insert
       | random SAAS app]. Maybe tech investors aren't very comfortable
       | with projects outside their domain knowledge and expect an quick
       | return. Quaise last financing round was something like $20M...
        
         | baq wrote:
         | one (1) good thing that may come out of OpenAI is thirst for
         | electricity only satiable by fusion, just as demand for heat in
         | UK could only be met by digging deeper for coal which
         | ultimately spurred the industrial revolution.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | and coal mining (kind of) saved the forests and and drilling
           | for oil (kind of) saved the whales.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | what a sad statement on the human condition that all of the
           | other needs for limitless clean power did not meet the needs
           | to justify developing fusion, yet you think that AI will?
           | Jesus wept.
        
             | tivert wrote:
             | > what a sad statement on the human condition that all of
             | the other needs for limitless clean power did not meet the
             | needs to justify developing fusion, yet you think that AI
             | will? Jesus wept.
             | 
             | Well, AI has the promise to provide a supply of loyal
             | slaves to anyone who can afford to pay for the electricity
             | and compute. It's a capitalist's dream: with AI, they may
             | never be forced by necessity to share a single thing with
             | us poors again.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | I hope that in your scenario that everyone that can
               | afford this notion of yours receives a robot that at the
               | minimum is as annoying as C3-P0 if not closer to a Jar
               | Jar.
        
           | zeristor wrote:
           | Don't forget about heat death.
           | 
           | More energy being used heats up the as atmosphere, it doesn't
           | simply just disappear.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _More energy being used heats up the as atmosphere_
             | 
             | We're nowhere close to this being a problem. (Our total
             | energy production is dwarfed by the natural flux.)
        
               | 0x0203 wrote:
               | Since it seems like you've seen data pertaining to this,
               | do you have any good/reputable sources? I've tried asking
               | in various places about what percentage of planetary
               | warming is due to direct heating from energy consumption,
               | vs. greenhouse gas effects vs. natural causes, but
               | usually just get accused of being a climate change denier
               | and told to go educate myself. I'm really just curious
               | about methodology, want to build a better mental model of
               | how it works and how it's studied, and have never seen
               | any discussions/papers talking about direct heating
               | effects, so don't know where to start.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _what percentage of planetary warming is due to direct
               | heating from energy consumption, vs. greenhouse gas
               | effects vs. natural causes_
               | 
               | Humans produce 20 TW of power [1]. (15 if we remove
               | solar, wind and hydro.) The Sun delivers, to the Earth,
               | 44,000 TW [2].
               | 
               | So raising the amount of the Sun's energy the earth
               | retains by 454 parts in a million (329 if we remove
               | solar, wind and hydro) adds to the Earth the energy of
               | our entire civilisation. _That_ is why emissions are the
               | problem. Not our direct heat production.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and
               | _consum...
               | 
               | [2] https://www.nasa.gov/wp-
               | content/uploads/2015/03/135642main_b...
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | More significantly, indirect heating from increased
               | greenhouse gases is about 400 TW.
        
               | kolinko wrote:
               | It's quite easy - we have numbers for humanity's
               | electricity and heat production. We also know how much
               | atmosphere and oceans weigh, which we can multiply by
               | specific heat of air and water. From this you can
               | calculate how much we've heaten up the atmosphere/oceans
               | - even ignoring the loss of heat to space/ground our
               | impact is neglible.
               | 
               | Here is chatgpt doing the math - https://chatgpt.com/shar
               | e/e/5d28257f-f51b-40e7-8742-75d75e2d... - it's roughly
               | correct.
        
             | Beijinger wrote:
             | Well, yes, kind of. But the Stefan-Boltzmann law has the
             | temperature^4 means the earth should radiate it back into
             | space. No?
        
             | hollerith wrote:
             | That is not what "heat death" means.
        
             | alxmng wrote:
             | You might enjoy Sabine Hossenfelder's video exploring this
             | "I recently learned that waste heat will boil the oceans in
             | about 400 years":
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRtA7STvH4
             | 
             | It turns out we can probably solve this by building
             | planetary chimneys 5km tall that move heat to the outer
             | atmosphere.
        
             | kolinko wrote:
             | All the energy we ever produced and are likely to produce
             | in the forseeable future has neglible impact on the
             | atmosphere's temperatures.
             | 
             | (Unlike co2 ofc)
             | 
             | Here is gpt doing estimates - the numbers are similar to
             | the ones I calculated by hand some time ago: https://chatgp
             | t.com/share/e/5d28257f-f51b-40e7-8742-75d75e2d...
        
           | palata wrote:
           | That's based on the (flawed, IMO) idea that fusion just needs
           | more resources to go faster [1]. We won't have serious fusion
           | before decades, it's just too late to save our energy (and
           | climate) problem.
           | 
           | Better go with fission at this point (preferably 4th gen
           | because uranium 235 is limited).
           | 
           | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
        
         | mateus1 wrote:
         | I mean, we'd probably be living like the Jetsons if the US
         | routed 20% of the defense spend to STEM.
        
           | okdood64 wrote:
           | We'd probably be living like the Jetsons if the Middle East
           | was stable, China wasn't so aggressive in the South China
           | Sea, and Russia didn't have some illusion of being able to
           | restore the Soviet Union.
        
             | DrNosferatu wrote:
             | We'd probably be living like the Jetsons if we would make a
             | serious attempt to curb (effective) tax evasion and profit
             | offshoring to reduce inequality.
             | 
             | (ie: make returns on labor converge to - or at least track
             | - returns on capital)
        
               | airstrike wrote:
               | _> curb (effective) tax evasion and profit offshoring to
               | reduce inequality._
               | 
               | that assumes cooperation on a global scale between
               | competing tax jurisdictions, which in my book is
               | infinitely harder to achieve than net power via fusion
        
               | DrNosferatu wrote:
               | Either the US or the EU could do it: which global company
               | can afford to not do business in any of these economic
               | blocks?
               | 
               | But the way the EU handled the COVID vaccine procurement,
               | I think we're still a long way.
        
               | DrNosferatu wrote:
               | Nevertheless, this was a good first step:
               | 
               | https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/03/global
               | -mi...
               | 
               | Maybe next time they actually make it work?
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | This premise means that the extra dollars would be spent in a
           | way that would justify your comment. Schools in Texas,
           | Florida, et al would probably just replace those liberal
           | texts with much more censored versions. They'd probably find
           | a way to build bigger football stadiums or those other
           | sportsball programs. New uniforms and things too. Then it'd
           | probably pay for perks for principles and sporting directors,
           | but sadly, there wouldn't be enough to increase the base pay
           | of actual teachers. I'm sure there's other ways to spend that
           | money and not a bit of it improves our advance towards the
           | Jetsons' world.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | A significant portion of the defense spend is STEM. It takes
           | a lot of engineering to build a bomb. It takes a lot of math
           | to create/break encryption....
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | That just makes things worse. Imagine if most people
             | working on nuclear reactors in the navy instead spent the
             | time building and maintaining civilian equipment. The kind
             | of people designing and building the F-22 etc where capable
             | of more long term useful activities etc.
             | 
             | The US could be safe spending 1% of its GDP on defense and
             | largely importing foreign weapon system designs for local
             | manufacturing. There's clearly a lower limit, but half of
             | current spending is perfectly reasonable starting point
             | before decisions get tricky.
        
               | kolinko wrote:
               | Which foreign systems? If US would've withdrew from cold
               | war, half of Europe would be learning cyrylic now, and
               | there would be few countries to import tech from. Not to
               | mention engineers from the eastern block working for the
               | opposite side.
        
               | kortex wrote:
               | > largely importing foreign weapon system designs for
               | local manufacturing.
               | 
               | I'm pretty sure they legally can't "largely import
               | foreign weapon designs". The Berry and Kissel amendments,
               | not to mention ITAR and a few other regulations, put a
               | strong incentive on in-sourcing when at all possible. The
               | only exceptions are for things that are really hard to
               | get domestically.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Laws are binding to most organizations, but the people
               | setting budgets are the same people creating laws.
               | 
               | So, it's not actually an issue.
        
             | mateus1 wrote:
             | That's precisely the point. We're using the science budget
             | for bombs instead of helping people.
        
               | kolinko wrote:
               | Bombs help protect people from countries like Russia
        
           | zeristor wrote:
           | Probably not, this assumes that that 20% is efficiently
           | spent.
        
           | colonCapitalDee wrote:
           | We spend about 3.5% of GDP on defense [1], and coincidentally
           | about 3.5% on R&D [2]. People tend to wildly overestimate how
           | large the modern US defense budget is. It's only around 13%
           | of federal spending [3]!
           | 
           | [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?lo
           | cat... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.G
           | D.ZS?locat... [3] https://federalbudgetinpictures.com/where-
           | does-all-the-money...
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | I live in penthouse in LA Abe shuttle to other rooftops, one
           | glance down at the sidewalk level and it kind of feels like
           | the jetsons
           | 
           | at least the retcon sketches where they showed what the
           | ground level was like
        
         | m463 wrote:
         | what if the amazing mathematicians / physicists / statisticians
         | that are sucked into wall street worked on fusion...
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Is that like trying to make a baby in 9 months by using more
           | women?
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Sounds like a winning plan, except what are the extra women
             | for?
        
             | rqtwteye wrote:
             | That's not an apt analogy. Right now we are trying to make
             | a baby with less than one woman
        
             | navane wrote:
             | How about trying to deliver any baby, using more women, and
             | you don't know which one are infertile
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | Not really. The mythical man month fallacy of 9 women
             | making a baby in 1 month is about rushing a specific
             | project, and having the coordination between the
             | individuals make it take longer. For something way bigger,
             | like the whole field of nuclear fusion, as opposed to
             | shipping an app next quarter, more people means more work
             | can happen. Having more smart people work on fusion instead
             | of HFT (eg Jim Simons), would lead to progress and
             | advancement in the field, compared to not.
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | 9 women can produces babies 9x faster than one woman can
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | Maybe it is like trying to make _more_ babies using more
             | women, which absolutely works.
        
         | snarf21 wrote:
         | I don't think domain knowledge is issue. The issue is that SAAS
         | apps or Twitter or w/e scale infinitely in an extremely short
         | time. What is the time horizon for drilling geothermal all over
         | the world? There are environmental factors to consider, etc. It
         | is fairly trivial for 4B people to be on FB but getting 4B
         | people to get their energy from geothermal doesn't scale the
         | same way.
        
           | aredox wrote:
           | Drilling and tunnelling is a huge industry with tons of
           | markets.
           | 
           | If Elon was the one to do this, tech bros and investors would
           | be all over it with ad-hoc rationalisations ("this is the
           | tech we need to build a mars colony!"). Instead he used his
           | "boring company" to kill public transportation, and you are
           | here dismissing Quaise Energy - people who actually have put
           | up the work to try something groundbreaking (literally) and
           | whose future is not assured yet.
        
             | Tagbert wrote:
             | But they are capital intensive with long timelines and a
             | high risk of failure. It's hard to get investment in
             | projects like that.
        
               | kolinko wrote:
               | The issue is with the lack of good quality startups than
               | with financing really. Long-term is not a big issue,
               | because funds can exit before the startup's exit through
               | secondaries. Also some of the funds in this field are ok
               | with long term investments.
               | 
               | (src: I tried setting up a climate tech venture builder /
               | seedfund 2 years ago.)
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | This is, in my view, the biggest bummer about (what I see
               | as) Musk's descent into madness in the last few years.
               | 
               | It's _absolutely_ true that this stuff is capital
               | intensive, slow, and risky, and thus hard to get
               | investment for. But Musk had solved that problem using
               | showmanship and a series of successful (whether through
               | genius or luck, it doesn 't matter!) risky bets to back
               | it up. So I think it just really is the case that because
               | of Tesla / SpaceX / Starlink, that he could easily get
               | however much funding he wants in private or public
               | markets to take a giant risky bet on something like
               | geothermal energy.
               | 
               | But instead he got bored of doing useful things and lost
               | himself in petty social media drama. Tragic.
        
       | pfdietz wrote:
       | Getting deep to hot rocks is important, but reducing the thermal
       | resistance around the borehole is also important.
       | 
       | Some schemes fracture the rock between two boreholes, but this
       | requires fiddly positioning of the wells as well as the
       | fractures. Another interesting approach is to increase the
       | thermal conductivity of the rock around a single well. Much of
       | the thermal resistance is in the rock close to the well (as can
       | be seen by examining the relevant integral), so this doesn't have
       | to affect too far out to have a significant effect.
       | 
       | A company XGS Energy recently raised $20 M in series "A" funding
       | for this. Their fluid (which is forced into fractures around the
       | borehole) is proprietary, but is thought to contain graphite
       | dust. Graphite can be three orders of magnitude more thermally
       | conductive than rock, so incorporating it into even narrow
       | fractures can have a major effect.
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40434975
       | 
       | https://jpt.spe.org/hot-rock-slurry-developer-of-emerging-ge...
       | 
       | (the field tests mentioned there must have been successful, as
       | they raised that $20 M subsequently.)
       | 
       | Because this technology involves a single well that remains
       | sealed from the surrounding formation, it could be used in
       | existing played-out oil or gas wells, some of which go quite deep
       | (although that's in basins with low geothermal gradients or else
       | the fossil fuels would have been destroyed.)
        
       | drtgh wrote:
       | Has anyone calculated how much energy could be extracted before
       | the cooling of the earth's crust, due such geothermal extraction,
       | would turn irreversible the reservoir and unleash worse
       | consequences than those "greenhouse gasses" mentioned?
       | 
       | From how such progressive temperature change (extraction) would
       | affect the dynamics of the Earth's core, among other things, to
       | how it would affect such temperature to the nature chemical
       | processes on the surface, how it would affect vegetal life
       | (cultives), and so on.
       | 
       | The planet is big, but we are talking about, lets say, a century
       | of use or more. Has anyone calculated were would be the limit of
       | holes (on geothermal a new hole each XX years due area cold down)
       | before the "we never guessed that X could happen"?
        
         | JoeAltmaier wrote:
         | Pretty sure the numbers are not comparable, not by many zeroes.
         | Like, trillions of times more energy in the Earth's heat than
         | humans could extract in a billion years.
         | 
         | Add to that, Earth is heated by deep radioactive elements. A
         | fission furnace. Not gonna burn out for a billion years, maybe
         | not ever.
        
         | lukan wrote:
         | - new heat is generated constantly in the earth by radioactive
         | decay
         | 
         | - how much is debated, but this alone probably dwarfs humans
         | energy needs (the core of the earth is really, really BIG)
         | 
         | The real danger is in creating local earth quakes, because that
         | already happened.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | Actually, it's estimated radioactive decay in the Earth is
           | about 20 TW, which is also about equal to the current global
           | rate of primary energy consumption.
           | 
           | Geothermal can be better described as heat mining than it
           | would be exploiting a steady state heat flow.
        
         | theideaofcoffee wrote:
         | More than we could ever hope to extract at even heightened
         | future consumption levels, which you could take to mean pretty
         | much impossible, see a past comment of mine along these lines:
         | [0]
         | 
         | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38850786
        
         | justinpombrio wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_energy#Resources
        
         | piva00 wrote:
         | On the phone so won't try to even get to a ballpark but just
         | thinking on the scale we are talking: a massive volume of a
         | molten ball of rock with a thin crust I believe it'd take a
         | fucking lot of energy to have any cooling. Even more where it'd
         | be radiating out to space and "lost".
        
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