[HN Gopher] An air quality model that is evolving with the times
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       An air quality model that is evolving with the times
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 99 points
       Date   : 2024-05-28 14:22 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (eos.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (eos.org)
        
       | culi wrote:
       | > Since its creation, STEM has evolved to cover a broader set of
       | key air pollutants, such as ozone and particulate matter,
       | 
       | I've always found air quality metrics focusing on particle size
       | confusing. E.g. PM2.5 (which describes fine inhalable particles,
       | with diameters that are generally 2.5 micrometers and smaller)
       | 
       | But surely there must be a massive qualitative difference between
       | particulate matter of, e.g., lead vs particulate matter of, e.g.,
       | pollen or fungal spores, right? How useful is it really to lump
       | all of these together?
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | Indeed - clearly it matters what the particles are made from.
         | Some stuff won't even be toxic, like particles of water (fog).
        
         | jvanderbot wrote:
         | Yes - there are other poisons as well hidden behind those
         | particles, but it's _very_ hard to measure the composition of
         | those particles in real time. Particulate matter _can_ be
         | measured with a $20 sensor from Sparkfun, so it 's an often-
         | used proxy.
         | 
         | As for why the particles sizes are differentiated, I think it's
         | because some sizes can cross barriers into the blood - and are
         | therefore concerning regardless of the contents. pm 2.5 can
         | reach the deepest parts of the lungs and just muck up that
         | whole area regardless and cause all kinds of systemic
         | inflammation. pm 10.0 generally doesn't reach that deep but
         | still causes eye/ nose/ throat problems IIRC.
         | 
         | If there is near-zero or undetectable particulate matter, then
         | that would preclude lead particles as well, obviously.
        
           | culi wrote:
           | This seems like a reasonable explanation, thanks
        
         | taeric wrote:
         | I mean, yes, toxins in the air are worse than non-toxins in the
         | air. I don't think anyone will really debate that.
         | 
         | The banal answer to your question is you measure what is easy
         | to measure. And it is easier to build a device that can measure
         | size of particles than one that can enumerate all of the types.
         | Especially since you will take the same actions regardless? Put
         | up a filter and run it.
        
           | hollerith wrote:
           | >Put up a filter and run it.
           | 
           | It's not that simple because any filtration media that will
           | filter out, e.g., diesel exhaust or pollen will lyse the
           | bacteria that are always floating in the air, thereby adding
           | to the air that leaves the filtration device the
           | lipopolysaccharide (LPS) toxin that without the action of the
           | filtration device would remain relatively-safely inside the
           | bacterium. Yes, even without any air purifiers, you will
           | absorb some LPS toxin from the bacteria in the air you
           | breath, but running an air purifier approximately doubles the
           | dose. I claim to be able to tell the difference in that when
           | I'm in a small room with an air purifier running at high fan
           | speed, I am much more likely to feel a certain kind of non-
           | severe, but not-good headache-like feeling.
           | 
           | I.e., you don't want to run an air purifier that removes very
           | small particles from the air when you don't need to -- at
           | least if you are as sensitive to LPS as I am. And you don't
           | want the fan speed of the purifier's being higher than
           | necessary.
        
             | InitialLastName wrote:
             | I'm gonna need a source on that, as the only relevant thing
             | that comes up on a search for "lipopolysaccharide toxin air
             | filter" is a single study [0] that tested a single air
             | purifier (whose filter had not been changed in a year) in a
             | single room. It includes the telling phrase: "The
             | conclusions here, however, should be interpreted cautiously
             | due to the small sample size here."
             | 
             | [0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160
             | 41202...
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | >I'm gonna need a source on that
               | 
               | Sadly, I was unable to find a link to the study I got my
               | info from after searching my notes for about 7 minutes.
        
             | taeric wrote:
             | It can be more complicated, yes. I assert that it usually
             | isn't. You don't spend time worrying as much about what the
             | contaminants are, you just drive them to zero.
             | 
             | I grant the point that you don't want to just stir up the
             | air. Which is why you don't just run a fan, necessarily.
        
         | nonamousnoose wrote:
         | They are separated by size because that determines which
         | airways they migrate to, and which can enter the bloodstream.
         | Yes, what they're made of matters - the latter is also measured
         | in specific studies, but the former is a lot easier/cheaper to
         | systematically measure.
        
         | wnevets wrote:
         | Focusing on PM 2.5 makes sense because anything that size and
         | smaller tend to cause the most harm. [1]
         | 
         | [1] https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-
         | basic...
         | 
         | > Particulate matter contains microscopic solids or liquid
         | droplets that are so small that they can be inhaled and cause
         | serious health problems. Some particles less than 10
         | micrometers in diameter can get deep into your lungs and some
         | may even get into your bloodstream. Of these, particles less
         | than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, also known as fine particles
         | or PM2.5, pose the greatest risk to health.
        
           | BobaFloutist wrote:
           | Presumably smaller particles are also more difficult to
           | filter (and therefore more likely to make their way indoors
           | without dedicated filtration), and also expected to remain
           | airborne for a greater distance and duration (because of
           | square cube things).
        
             | hedgehog wrote:
             | PM2.5 is around the hardest size to filter, I don't
             | understand the physics but both larger and smaller are
             | actually easier to remove from the air. Given that 2.5 is a
             | useful estimate of worst case performance for a given
             | setup.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | Basically a HEPA/electrostatic filter works in two ways.
               | 
               | As a "physical" filter (think fishing net), works well on
               | big particles.
               | 
               | As an electrostatic filter, works best with really small,
               | works by electrically attracting particles and having
               | them stick.
               | 
               | 2.5 micron is in the middle crossover range where total
               | net effectiveness is worst. Respirators are rated at the
               | same size for the same reason.
        
             | LordDragonfang wrote:
             | >Presumably smaller particles are also more difficult to
             | filter
             | 
             | So, that may or may not be true for just passive filtering
             | (like door and window frames), but it's actually not true
             | for actual hepa-style filters, because the physics of
             | particulate filtering is totally unintuitive from the macro
             | level -- past a certain point, finer particulates actually
             | become easier to filter, because the physics is dominated
             | by two different effects at different sizes.
             | 
             | https://dynomight.net/ikea-purifier/#on-physics
        
           | 4death4 wrote:
           | Yes, but isn't lead getting into your bloodstream worse than
           | pollen? I mean oxygen gets into your bloodstream via
           | inhalation...
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Worse in what way? Lead is a long term neurotoxin, but
             | pollen triggers the immune system and makes you miserable.
             | Both are bad but in different ways.
        
               | 4death4 wrote:
               | It's really unclear to you why a long term neurotoxin
               | that leads to lifelong disability is worse than allergy
               | producing pollen?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | It isn't clear until you are suffering from allergies,
               | and notice that old people who used to chew on lead
               | fishing weights are not all that bad off. Most people
               | with high lead in their bodies don't realize the issue
               | nor to the people they know.
        
               | alright2565 wrote:
               | > used to chew on lead fishing weights
               | 
               | Chunks of lead just aren't that bad.
               | https://doi.org/10.2146/ajhp060175 lists common sources
               | of lead poisoning, and none of them are lead weights.
               | 
               | Common sources involve things like airborne lead powder
               | (from grinding or smelting), lead compounds dissolved in
               | food & water, paint, and lead in soil.
        
             | wnevets wrote:
             | Which plant produces pollen at PM2.5 tho? Pollen usually
             | isn't entering your bloodstream through your lungs, its too
             | large.
        
               | semi-extrinsic wrote:
               | Pollen particles are quite fragile and tend to break up
               | into PM2.5 and smaller, especially during rain events.
               | See for instance the reference below.
               | 
               | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2022.100177
        
               | culi wrote:
               | In addition to pollen, there are spores from both
               | mushrooms and ferns. Both of which are common cloud-
               | seeding particles and can often be PM2.5
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Most pollen is captured at pm10 or higher level. PM2.5
             | tends to be created by humans
             | 
             | Crossing the blood brain barrier exacerbates not only
             | asthma but other vascular/heart and related diseases,
             | including diabetes, as well as lung diseases.
        
         | BunsanSpace wrote:
         | Canada is updating their model to be the worst of PM2.5 and
         | their traditional models of common pollutants.
         | 
         | Part of the issue is the existing model does an average over 3
         | hours, where PM2.5 can change rapidly (fire, traffic surge,
         | &c). So they have a second metric that is averaged over an
         | hour.
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | Getting the data on the chemical composition of the PM2.5
         | fraction of air pollution requires fairly advanced
         | instrumentation and lab capabilities. It is the important data
         | in estimating toxicity, for example:
         | 
         | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/EGU24-881.html
         | 
         | > "It was found that PM chemical composition was major
         | determinant in toxicity assessment rather than its mass
         | concentration."
        
         | luma wrote:
         | PM2.5 is of interest because it's a size that your body has a
         | harder time getting rid of. Larger size particles have an
         | easier time being captured by the upper respiratory system.
         | Smaller things might make it into the blood stream and
         | hopefully be filtered by the kidneys. 2.5 microns is right at
         | the point between where either thing is less likely to happen
         | and instead the stuff might get stuck in your lungs.
        
       | geniium wrote:
       | We don't need a model, we need to take care of our planet.
        
         | culi wrote:
         | We don't need passwords, everyone just needs to be nice to each
         | other
        
         | BobaFloutist wrote:
         | California wildfires are an important, natural part of the
         | ecosystem, but I still like to know when it's worth wearing an
         | N95 mask and turning on my air filter to prevent that
         | important, natural part of the ecosystem from permanently
         | damaging my lungs.
        
         | anonporridge wrote:
         | We don't need lightning rods, we just need to pray to Zeus.
        
           | Spivak wrote:
           | Steelmanning the parent's argument. Having a better model of
           | how fucked we are when there there's no appetite to actually
           | do anything about is high-effort doing nothing.
        
             | thfuran wrote:
             | But if you don't have a good model, you can't reliably
             | identify the good ways of unfucking.
        
         | waveBidder wrote:
         | The first step in getting people to care is proving there's a
         | problem, and accurate models help with that. Not as much as
         | actual data mind you.
        
       | hendler wrote:
       | Air quality is not thought enough of in terms of localized data.
       | Some modeling works at larger scales, but if you want to know the
       | forecast for other pollutants (especially ones that disperse or
       | transition) or the source of methane leaks, you need very
       | localized data from many modalities (wind direction, temperature,
       | topographic, seasonal, traffic, etc).
       | 
       | I worked at https://aclima.io on air quality for 6.5 years. My
       | role was managing backend data pipelines, but I worked with
       | scientists and data scientists who were pushing the boundaries of
       | models' capabilities. Models are complex and expensive - any
       | advancement here, like Graphcast, is very important. [1] One job
       | our team was responsible for is to reduce the cost of high
       | quality data, so we drove vehicles around to collect very
       | localized data, which ended up being temporally sparse. Modeling
       | can fill gaps to some measurable level of certainty.
       | 
       | It should also be said that policy is far behind the science, but
       | the burden will remain on science and data to continue make
       | conclusions irrefutable.
       | 
       | [1] - https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-
       | for...
        
         | selimthegrim wrote:
         | Is there a good email address/way to reach you? I have a couple
         | questions about your past job as well as the product at your
         | current gig.
        
       | banish-m4 wrote:
       | The costs of changing from say a model like the US EPA AQI to
       | something else is it creates fragmentation and breaks
       | comparability and infrastructure that came before. An agreed-upon
       | international "AQ" metric should reflect real risk to sensitive
       | groups and long-term health outcomes.
        
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