[HN Gopher] Show HN: I built a website to create financial model...
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Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock
online
Author : trevzercap
Score : 123 points
Date : 2024-05-17 17:59 UTC (5 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.useequityval.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.useequityval.com)
| beeboobaa3 wrote:
| If this worked you wouldn't be selling access, especially not for
| a one-time fee of $10. You'd be making millions.
|
| You could probably get away with charging a subscription fee.
| trevzercap wrote:
| I am not advertising this as a stock price predictor. This is
| for people to make valuation models on stocks but the valuation
| depends on user input.
| jvanderbot wrote:
| Great way to test a lot of models, then use subscription fees
| to fund a bot based on the best performing ones.
|
| A few "trading api" shops did this last time I looked into
| it.
| bonestamp2 wrote:
| I'm interesting in learning more about individual stock
| investing. I mean, I've been doing it for years, but more
| just on hype. I've been very successful, but I do very little
| research on fundamentals and I want to do more of that.
|
| So, your tool sounds interesting, but I don't know enough to
| use it. Do you have a tutorial video or anything that might
| walk me through a user story on how somebody would use your
| tool? Or, do you know of a good fundamentals course that
| would give me the knowledge to be a customer of your tool?
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hey, thank you for the compliment. Aswath Damodaran is a
| professor at NYU and puts out a lot of good content on
| valuation. You should check him out.
| jstanley wrote:
| Two economists were walking down the street. The first
| economist spotted a PS20 note on the ground and stopped to pick
| it up. The second economist asked "why are you stopping?". The
| first economist said "to pick up this PS20 note". The second
| economist replied "don't be stupid, if there was a PS20 note on
| the ground somebody would already have taken it". The first
| economist considered this for a moment, then nodded, and they
| both walked on.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Sorry everyone! And thank you! Due to high volume I am hitting my
| API limits. If you are getting a server error that is why. The
| limit resets ever minute so please wait and try again.
| codegeek wrote:
| Always be mindful of this when submitting to HN. The real test
| of traffic surge. Right now, it is of not much use as it just
| gives server error.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Haha yeah, I will have to upgrade my api limit. Thank you!
| jb1991 wrote:
| No need to rain on their parade. As if they are not already
| now aware of this.
| nescioquid wrote:
| This caught out the current Show HN poster, so I imagine
| the comment could be useful to future Show HN posters.
|
| Besides, the comment wasn't unkind to the present poster
| and is actually kind to future posters, so the admonishment
| and down-votes seem unwarranted.
| adsdfdfsa wrote:
| Noice! Where do you get your data?
| xyzzy4747 wrote:
| The landing page doesn't work well on mobile.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Yup, tbh this was my first time building a UI lol. I plan to
| improve the mobile experience if it gets decent traction.
| xyzzy4747 wrote:
| Use tailwind.css, it's the best way. Then do breakpoints such
| as md: and lg: in the class names. And lots of flex box.
| camhart wrote:
| > best way
|
| It's simply a way. There are "plenty of ways to skin a
| cat". Best is highly debatable. I'd argue best is relative
| given the dev's experience and interest. Might be best if
| the dev was you.
| garyfirestorm wrote:
| your model is bonkers NVDA - Current Price: $921.93 | Projected
| Price: $30,082.68 | Difference: 3,163.01%
| usernamed7 wrote:
| If the AI says it it must be true. For the sake of my
| portfolio, fingers crossed.
| dvfjsdhgfv wrote:
| Just wanted to chime in that I hope this ridiculous prophecy
| holds up!
| trevzercap wrote:
| lol I hope so to! there is no AI on the model though. Pro
| users can have an AI fill in the model for them. But the base
| model you see when you load up a stock is just projecting the
| previous years metrics out 5 years!
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hey, the model starts with the previous years growth numbers
| projected out 5 years. You are meant to give your assumptions
| to get to a valuation.
|
| NVDA revenue grew 125% last year so projecting that out for 5
| straight years results in a very high value but is most likely
| inaccurate!
| bonestamp2 wrote:
| It sounds like a couple people in this thread have
| misunderstood how to use your tool. Perhaps you want to hide
| the projected numbers at least until they start to put in
| their own assumptions.
| trevzercap wrote:
| This is a good suggestion. Thank you!
| garyfirestorm wrote:
| ah that makes sense. thank you for clarifying. i was
| expecting a fair valuation based on YOUR assumptions and the
| value I misconstrued was that YOUR assumptions are better
| than mine so I must pay you.
| khaki54 wrote:
| Taking the defaults Boeing is going to -424 a share. Will check
| this out again later when I can actually try some sane numbers
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hi, DCF models are not very effective when a company is
| cashflow negative. That can result in weird looking values. On
| the last tab of the model you can switch the exit multiple to
| look at EV-Sales which will work better on a cashflow negative
| business like Boeing. Doing this with the model defaults
| results in a value of $149. Thanks for checking it out!
| mschuster91 wrote:
| That's where this company should end up in any fair world,
| given all the evidence pointing to _intentional_ misconduct and
| structural governance issues as a cause for multiple fatal
| crashes and other serious incidents. Snark aside, this may just
| be a case of Boeing 's numbers being distorted by its business
| model and airlines paying only on delivery of airplanes (which
| has been seriously cut back due to regulators imposing
| production stops and caps as a result of all its issues for
| years now), but Boeing having to pay their vendors upon receipt
| of parts.
|
| Besides, anything aviation is a financial accounting
| shenanigans party. Many airlines, for example, are "loss
| leaders" - the money actually comes from their "reward
| programs" and credit cards [1], a practice that's been going on
| for decades now [2].
|
| [1]
| https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/airlines-b...
|
| [2] https://airlinegeeks.com/2021/12/17/here-s-why-airline-
| loyal...
| TradingPlaces wrote:
| Everyone: This is a nice simple interface for making a discounted
| cash flow (DCF) model, and the pro version lets you export that
| to Excel. There's still a lot of work to fill in those fields.
| More on DCF:
| https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/dc...
|
| OP: What are "AI Models"
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hi, the pro version allows you to tell an AI what you think
| aboout the company and it will fill in the DCF model for you.
|
| So you can say, "I think AAPL will have strong growth over the
| next 5 years, they will also see costs go down as xyz will
| happen" and the AI will use your assumptions to fill in the DCF
| ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
| Im skeptical whether these types of models can help you make
| better investment decisions. The fate of a company usually hinges
| on some fundamental question.
|
| For Apple it is whether they can stay a prominent platform that
| can capture a significant portion of the value created on it.
|
| For Tesla it is how fast their self driving tech will evolve.
|
| For Google it is whether AI will make search obsolete or more
| valuable.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Yeah its an art not a science for sure. Those questions and how
| you think the answers will play out should inform the inputs
| you use for your model. DCF modeling is not a silver bullet to
| predict a stock price thats for sure.
| jb1991 wrote:
| Counterpoint: Jim Simons
| rahimnathwani wrote:
| HFT isn't primarily about fundamental valuation.
| doctorpangloss wrote:
| I'm not sure why anyone would invoke Renaissance as an
| example of anything, giving how little people know about
| what they concretely do. Seems ironically unscientific of
| people who admire Jim Simons.
| czbond wrote:
| Neither is an equity's price much of the calendar year.
| avarun wrote:
| ...yes. Which is why OP made the argument that this tool,
| which helps with fundamental performance, isn't very
| useful for calculating an equity's price target.
| rahimnathwani wrote:
| We should distinguish between:
|
| - _price_ (absolute level)
|
| - price _movements_ (relative change)
|
| Your claim is that an equity's _price_ isn 't usually a
| reflection of fundamental value.
|
| On how many days this year (or this decade) was Google's
| market cap lower than that of Cheesecake Factory? Why?
| smabie wrote:
| Rentec also doesn't do HFT
| neeeeees wrote:
| Quite the opposite actually. Simons and similar practitioners
| eschewed fundamental valuation techniques. Buffett is
| possibly a better example.
| anonu wrote:
| > these types of models
|
| This is THE way fundamental analysis is done. There are many
| ways to model - but this is the most robust as you have the
| most inputs.
| plessas wrote:
| I subbed. Messing around with model parameters definitely has
| entertainment value.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Thank you! I appreciate the support.
| jstanley wrote:
| Very nice, coincidentally I have been thinking about making a
| similar tool lately, but I'd make it quite a bit more
| conservative.
|
| I'd want to be able to define a model like "I think the fair
| value of a company is its net current assets plus its last 5
| years of earnings", and have the tool email me whenever I can buy
| shares in any company substantially below that price, or sell
| them substantially above.
|
| It wouldn't be very hard to do, it just needs the data.
|
| Where are you getting your data from?
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hi the data is from
| https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
| jstanley wrote:
| Thanks
| vg_head wrote:
| This is exactly the kind of tool I would want as well. I was
| surprised nothing like this exists already.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Sounds like maybe i should build a notification system so if
| a stock drops a certain percentage below your models
| estimated value you get alerted?
| vg_head wrote:
| Yes, at least that would be a great start for me.
| nonameiguess wrote:
| I don't know if this is the reason but it is _somewhat_
| trivial to roll your own. This is actually close to the story
| of how I became a programmer in the first place. 17 years ago
| or so, I made something like this in Excel and figured out
| how to populate the data from the Yahoo! Finance API, then
| learned about FRED, BLS, other sources of possibly relevant
| economic data, but still doing everything in Excel,
| eventually deciding to learn C++ since I 'd heard it was the
| industry standard for finance. I caught the bug, ended up
| being more into software than finance specifically, and the
| rest is history. My motivation at the time was this was the
| middle of the big global financial crisis, everything had
| tanked, and it seemed like a great time to get in low. Buying
| my first house in 2009 was probably the most advantageous
| thing I did, though I was at least able to do that by tax-
| free early liquidation of an IRA that was full of self-picked
| stocks.
| repeekad wrote:
| You should checkout fintool.com, you can ask in natural
| language for this kind of data and soon set up alerts on it
| czbond wrote:
| Thanks for pointing that out - fintool seems really
| impressive as well
| devoutsalsa wrote:
| What are you using for a data source? Just web scraping?
| shegerking2020 wrote:
| the sign up page is clunky. My inputs aren't visible
| https://pasteboard.co/PL6myO1PGkIG.png
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hi, this is odd. What browser are you using?
| Kickedsoda wrote:
| Looks like it could the autocomplete of the browser they are
| using.
|
| Try something like this in your global.css
| https://pasteboard.co/VAf6hbqgxOoU.png
| atlgator wrote:
| Your model projects the price of Nvidia will rise to $30,173. How
| does it arrive at that?
| trevzercap wrote:
| Hi this is from a comment below on this
|
| "Hey, the model starts with the previous years growth numbers
| projected out 5 years. You are meant to give your assumptions
| to get to a valuation. NVDA revenue grew 125% last year so
| projecting that out for 5 straight years results in a very high
| value but is most likely inaccurate!"
|
| I should probably take nvda off the home page lol
| cmgriffing wrote:
| I would love to see some tooltips or something to explain the
| relevance of some of the stock metrics and what a good vs bad
| number would look like. Something as simple as "Higher number =
| better" would be useful.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Thank you, this is a good suggestion.
| tndibona wrote:
| I like the site. You reacted the HN front page. Congrats mate, I
| hope you don't burn a hole in your wallet to support this surge
| in traffic.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Haha, just upgraded my email provider so i wouldn't run out 30
| seconds ago. Thank you!
| m3kw9 wrote:
| If there is any alpha with these data, it would have been used up
| uh2010 wrote:
| https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CRSP
|
| Current Price: $56.22
|
| Projected Price: $20,806,772,549,824,028.00
|
| Difference: 37,009,556,296,378,460%
|
| Glad I'm long.
| trevzercap wrote:
| Haha the initial model is not a good representation of value as
| it projects the lasts years metrics out 5 years. 80K% growth
| for 5 years would do that. Thanks for pointing it out. I need
| to incorporate some boundaries for the initial values lol.
| icedchai wrote:
| I put in quite a few stocks and the results were often strange.
| Negative values, under a dollar, etc. These were all stable
| companies, not penny stocks.
| Beijinger wrote:
| 37,009,556,296,378,460%
|
| That is a decent return. I bought a call option for RILY. Went
| to zero. Well...
| airstrike wrote:
| The hard thing about modeling is not the math to get to present
| value of the stock. It's figuring out which assumptions make
| sense.
|
| Assuming that a revenue growth rate of 84,762.39% is (a) a
| valid number and (b) expected to remain the same over the next
| X years does not quote-unquote "make sense"
| giantg2 wrote:
| Yeah, there should be multiple massive disclaimers on this
| site. I'd be worried about regulatory issues as well.
| tessbi wrote:
| This is excellent! Good work!
| trevzercap wrote:
| Thank you!
| rishab_kokate wrote:
| Hi, loved the idea behind your product. Just a quick question
| about your tech stack?
|
| What stack did you use? Im trying to learn more about web
| development and was in the process of learning how to make my
| idea. Im leaning towards the MERN stack rn but not exactly sure
| if its a good idea, so im just asking you also what were the
| criterias/questions you asked yourself for choosing your tech
| stack?
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(page generated 2024-05-17 23:00 UTC)