[HN Gopher] China's quiet energy revolution: the switch from nuc...
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       China's quiet energy revolution: the switch from nuclear to
       renewable energy
        
       Author : flgb
       Score  : 20 points
       Date   : 2024-05-03 22:12 UTC (48 minutes ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (johnmenadue.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (johnmenadue.com)
        
       | aurareturn wrote:
       | On HN, there are a lot of nuclear proponents. Any comments from
       | them on this article? Just curiosity from me because I don't know
       | much about this topic.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | Nuclear is slower and more expensive to deploy than solar or
         | wind. Nobody should dispute that. We should deploy the latter
         | as quickly as possible. _In addition_ , we should build nuclear
         | plants, certainly until we've phased out coal and oil for
         | primary generation.
         | 
         | The article describes China scaling back new plants at a slower
         | pace--about 5 a year instead of ten-but that's still a multiple
         | of anything we're doing.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | The analysis I've seen doesn't support the position we should
           | also be deploying nuclear. We come out ahead rolling out
           | renewables and storage as fast as possible, driving these
           | technologies down their experience curves. Any new nuclear
           | added will likely close early when it can't even make an
           | operating profit.
        
         | causality0 wrote:
         | The article makes it pretty clear the shift was prompted by
         | their ongoing failure to meet their nuclear goals as well as a
         | dropping cost of renewables, not by a philosophical choice to
         | embrace only renewables.
        
         | MostlyStable wrote:
         | its short and mostly just a description of whats happening. Not
         | much to comment on. Except for the last sentence that says that
         | nuclear "can't" compete with renewables.
         | 
         | Firstly, it's actually competing with coal, which is what is
         | going in instead, and secondly, any regulatory regime that
         | slows nuclear deployment so much that you instead install coal
         | is deeply, _deeply_ flawed. Nuclear is orders of magnitude more
         | safer than coal, and has been for 50+ years. They need to
         | figure out which roadblocks are slowing it down and remove
         | them.
         | 
         | Regulation is a choice. Sometimes it's a very good choice. But
         | if your options are "highly regulated nuclear" and "coal", then
         | you have made some poor regulatory choices.
        
       | TeeMassive wrote:
       | I've always found these articles about China adopting green
       | policies and shifting its industries towards green energy sources
       | to be suspicious. If they were true then why are China's emission
       | ever increasing year after year:
       | https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china
       | 
       | If their share of renewables / nuclear energy were increasing
       | then there would be a decrease in C02 emissions per capita, but
       | that has never been the case even with the increase in
       | announcements in "green" mega projects over the years.
        
         | janice1999 wrote:
         | is this so hard to explain?
         | 
         | - CO2 comes from sources other than energy (electricity)
         | production.
         | 
         | - Overall energy usage is increasing, outpacing % growth of
         | renewables.
        
         | MegaDeKay wrote:
         | From the article: "Previously China expected that its energy
         | emissions would peak in 2030, but revised forecasts are now
         | indicating that this could happen as early as 2024, 5-6 years
         | ahead of target."
        
         | robertlagrant wrote:
         | > If their share of renewables / nuclear energy were increasing
         | then there would be a decrease in C02 emissions per capita
         | 
         | This seems a bit obvious to say, but that wouldn't be the case
         | if the standard of living were also being raised. Also, there's
         | a huge amount of CO2 generated by non-energy means; e.g.
         | building with concrete.
        
         | socks wrote:
         | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-dominates-rene...
         | 
         | "There is also a caveat to China's rapid build-out of renewable
         | capacity because at the same time it is still adding
         | substantial coal-fired generation."
         | 
         | "China already accounts for 53% of the world's 2,095 GW of
         | operating coal-fired generating capacity, a share likely to
         | increase in coming years as more coal plants are retired in the
         | developed world."
        
       | tomohawk wrote:
       | China is building a lot of coal power plants.
       | 
       | https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-new-coal-po...
       | 
       | And industrializaing vast swaths of land by covering it with
       | solar panels.
       | 
       | https://www.facebook.com/XinhuaSciTech/videos/solar-panels-o...
        
         | spacebanana7 wrote:
         | Coal has excellent politics, especially in India & China.
         | 
         | It's mineable almost everywhere people live, is burdened by
         | little international regulation (at least compared to nuclear),
         | and is labour intensive enough to create powerful local
         | advocates.
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | The undeniable fact is that humans are very electricity hungry.
         | Cheap electricity opens up tons of downstream benefits.
         | 
         | I am envisioning something like an international market for
         | clean electricity. Something like an internet for power. This
         | would enable developing countries to leapfrog dirty methods
         | like coal, similar to how many countries leapfrogged over
         | credit cards and cheques we still have in the US. Of course the
         | UHVDC technology may not be ready for it yet.
        
       | janalsncm wrote:
       | It is telling that a country with basically none of the American
       | barriers to nuclear (NiMBYism, slow construction) is also
       | shifting focus to solar and wind. It's just simpler. You can put
       | up a solar panel tomorrow and start generating power.
       | 
       | A solar panel is a self-contained prefab power generating unit.
       | Even with all of the advancements in nuclear, we still don't have
       | anything like that.
        
       | spacebanana7 wrote:
       | It's very difficult to estimate the true cost of nuclear power
       | because so many resources are spent on safety features rather
       | than the basic stuff essential to power generation.
       | 
       | New construction cost per energy out can vary by 5x, even against
       | the grain of expected purchasing power parity advantages:
       | 
       | https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-britain-is-building-...
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | Safety features aren't essential to power generation?
        
           | spacebanana7 wrote:
           | Yes, but after a certain point it becomes a matter of risk
           | tolerance.
           | 
           | Apparently some radiation standards in nuclear power plants
           | work out at millions/billions of dollars per year per life
           | saved
           | 
           | https://jackdevanney.substack.com/p/nuclear-power-is-too-
           | saf...
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | In the Pacific Northwest, I see rooftop solar panels half-covered
       | with mildew. I wonder how that affects the power generation, and
       | how often one would have to climb up on the roof to scrape them
       | clean.
        
         | ajross wrote:
         | The article is about industrial generation, not home solar
         | which is largely a vanity thing still. Go look for mildew on a
         | big solar farm on the other side of the Cascades.
         | 
         | You'll need to dig through all the wind turbines and dams to
         | find them though. The PNW has better choices than solar anyway.
        
       | henry2023 wrote:
       | To this day I think that nuclear is the best way to produce clean
       | and abundant energy. There only one problem. Only governments
       | build nuclear reactors and if you want to innovate in this space
       | you need to deal with these institutions which adds a lot of
       | complexity is dealing with these institutions.
       | 
       | Solar on the other hand appeals to the public and can be deployed
       | in large scale facilities. Large scale economics apply directly
       | and we can see that by looking at the historic price per kW[1].
       | 
       | Finally, me as a nuclear advocate own 14x550w panels + a 20 kWh
       | battery. I'm off grid > 95% of the year. Solar is unstoppable
       | now.
        
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       (page generated 2024-05-03 23:00 UTC)