[HN Gopher] Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]
        
       Author : neel8986
       Score  : 86 points
       Date   : 2024-04-25 20:07 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (abc.xyz)
 (TXT) w3m dump (abc.xyz)
        
       | pb7 wrote:
       | Stock is +13% after hours so far.
        
       | samspenc wrote:
       | Wow they announced their first-ever dividend (following Meta
       | which announced theirs last quarter).
        
         | lupire wrote:
         | Leading from behind.
        
           | guyzero wrote:
           | yes, thank goodness Meta finally invented dividends.
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | Fascinating that they're issuing a dividend. Can't find anything
       | better to do to drive growth?
        
         | neel8986 wrote:
         | It is $300B/year company growing at 15%. I don't think growth
         | is an issue here
        
           | endisneigh wrote:
           | _Better_
        
         | duringmath wrote:
         | It's not like they can make any major acquisitions in this
         | political environment.
        
         | IncreasePosts wrote:
         | Google has $100B+ of cash and is giving out $10B/yr as a
         | dividend. I think they will be able to scrape something
         | together if they have a good idea.
        
           | endisneigh wrote:
           | Yes - and what they've decided is a dividend. It's the first
           | in their history. I'm not saying it's good or bad, but it's
           | something.
        
             | lupire wrote:
             | The interesting part is why they chose to issue a dividend
             | instead of sticking only with a theoretically equivalent
             | buyback.
        
         | tryptophan wrote:
         | Yeah, they should spend it making 5 new chat apps.
        
           | adonovan wrote:
           | Or halting the layoffs.
        
             | lupire wrote:
             | This has nothing to do with layoffs. They have plenty of
             | money for salary even after these payouts. The layoffs are
             | intended to reduce costs / increase profit. Google has no
             | desire for employees; they only have employees insofar they
             | are a _necessary_ expense.
        
         | VirusNewbie wrote:
         | They are growing as fast as they can in terms of data center
         | and GPU output. They're supply constrained.
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | Where would you spend that cash?
         | 
         | They already have >150k employees they can redeploy at will to
         | enter any new market.
        
         | ZephyrBlu wrote:
         | Funnily enough, Peter Thiel called this years ago.
        
         | dlachausse wrote:
         | Dividends were originally the main point of owning corporate
         | stocks in the first place.
        
         | formercoder wrote:
         | I'm a Googler who doesn't do anything remotely close to setting
         | capital return policy. Just remember Alphabet has been buying
         | back 10s of billions for a while. Dividends are just a
         | different capital return mechanism.
        
       | darth_avocado wrote:
       | > Alphabet's Board of Directors today authorized the company to
       | repurchase up to an additional $70.0 billion of its Class A and
       | Class C shares in a manner deemed in the best interest of the
       | company and its stockholders
       | 
       | The most important item on the report
        
         | office_drone wrote:
         | At today's closing price this is 3.6% of outstanding shares
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Also...10,000 fired... Employees previous equivalent
         | quarter:190,711 and now:180,895
         | 
         | Edit: 190,711 employees on March 31, 2023
        
           | acchow wrote:
           | Closest comparison is the last quarter were they ended with
           | 182,502
        
             | belter wrote:
             | Correct. Edited my comment to clarify number of 190,711 was
             | as of March 2023.
        
           | omoikane wrote:
           | Layoff is not the same as "fired". Please use the correct
           | terminology in consideration for those who lost their jobs.
           | 
           | Also, the termination dates for those who were laid off in
           | January 2023 would be around April 2023 (the layoff news came
           | earlier due to WARN act), so the employee count as of
           | 2023-03-31 might not include those people. This means a
           | difference of ~10000 can be accounted for by the 2023-01-20
           | round of layoffs.
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | Exact same level of authorization in April '22 and '23
        
         | fdsakljalkj wrote:
         | What an odd statement. Care to explain why you think a routine
         | buyback announcement is important?
        
       | dmckinno wrote:
       | I thought that this earnings announcement would be the first one
       | where we'd see some impact from competitive knowledge engines,
       | e.g. Perplexity, You.com, ChatGPT + Bing, etc., but Google still
       | grew search $6B/15%.
       | 
       | This is impressive both because it's hard to keep such a big
       | business growing at that rate and because essentially everyone in
       | my social circle has moved on from going to Google first for
       | information. I guess our demographic is not predictive of the
       | larger market.
        
         | foogazi wrote:
         | > everyone in my social circle has moved on from going to
         | Google first for information
         | 
         | Or have they ?
        
           | Workaccount2 wrote:
           | I'll admit that despite having a GPT4 sub which I use often,
           | I still fallback on google for quick questions and
           | verification of what GPT4 says if I need to be certain.
           | 
           | Not even because I am particularly going to google, it's just
           | so heavily integrated.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | I find GPT4 requires long queries to get much out. And I
             | can't be bothered typing out a long query if Google can
             | give me the same in 3 words and scanning down the result
             | page.
        
             | asadm wrote:
             | you will like perplexity pro then?
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | Or Kagi, which is essentially LLM + citation links (with
               | the '?' suffix)
        
           | laweijfmvo wrote:
           | I have moved to Kagi as my search engine, although 99.99..%
           | of people will probably never pay for search. Anecdotally,
           | whenever I'm not finding what I need on Kagi and fallback to
           | Google (less than once per week), it's shocking what a
           | disaster the UX of Google's products have become (Maps is an
           | even bigger offender than Search, where seemingly arbitrarily
           | labeled places get more visibility than the search results).
        
             | EL_Loco wrote:
             | What do you use instead of Google Maps? I don't know enough
             | about alternatives to choose one.
        
         | duringmath wrote:
         | You still have to verify plausible sounding LLM output
         | somewhere.
        
           | utensil4778 wrote:
           | And Google is doing a worse and worse job of performing that
           | role or any other.
           | 
           | There are other search engines and almost all of them are
           | orders of magnitude better than google is now.
        
             | duringmath wrote:
             | Citations needed there buddy
        
               | utensil4778 wrote:
               | No, not really.
               | 
               | The decline of Google's search performance is on the
               | front page of HN at least once a week. It's common
               | knowledge at this point.
               | 
               | Try Kagi if you want to be reminded of what good search
               | is like.
        
               | NtochkaNzvanova wrote:
               | On what metrics of search quality is Kagi "orders of
               | magnitude" better than Google?
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | It is probably massively better for niche technical
               | searches which many technical people here do for their
               | job, that is the Kagis userbase after all.
               | 
               | But such searches doesn't generate much ad revenue, so it
               | doesn't do much to Google to lose them, all the people
               | searching for articles about makeup or clothes or games
               | or other things that has strong advertisement potential
               | Google is awesome as a search engine, I haven't seen
               | anyone say Kagi is better there. Kagi is only better for
               | the searches that Google doesn't care about since they
               | generate so little ad revue, Google uses so much compute
               | per search that I'm not even sure such technical searches
               | would be profitable for them to run, likely that would
               | increase profits to lose them to Kagi.
        
               | carlosjobim wrote:
               | That is something that you can only decide for yourself.
        
         | tech_buddha wrote:
         | The layoffs and dividend are related -- the company's death
         | rattle has been shaking a while now. Management is desperate to
         | retain the confidence of the investor class.
        
           | alphabetting wrote:
           | > death rattle
           | 
           | Stock up 16% after hours.
        
           | StressedDev wrote:
           | I think most companies would love to being "dying" like
           | Google "is". Seriously, Google is not dying and making
           | obviously false claims is not helpful.
        
           | NtochkaNzvanova wrote:
           | Top 5 most valuable company on earth
           | 
           | Massive YoY growth
           | 
           | Massive cash horde, buybacks, dividends
           | 
           | Target of endless legal actions due to market dominance
           | 
           | "death rattle"
        
         | abadpoli wrote:
         | Seems like a situation where it's worth it to be cognizant of
         | your bubble.
         | 
         | I don't know exactly what you meant by "our demographic", but
         | I'm a frequent reader of HN, work in tech, and generally stay
         | up to date with all things tech, and yet... I don't know if a
         | single person that doesn't still use Google as their go-to
         | place for information. Before this comment I had never even
         | heard of Perplexity or You.com. /shrug
        
         | darkwizard42 wrote:
         | I think this is the same thing I feel when I read Meta's
         | earnings. I continue to see growth in usage of their core
         | properties but I don't think my entire circle touches Facebook
         | or even Instagram nearly as much.
         | 
         | Whatsapp certainly isn't driving those ad dollars so it truly
         | is remarkable how disconnected my demographic (loosely using my
         | here) is from the overall world usage.
        
           | carlossouza wrote:
           | The world is much larger than the bubble we live in.
        
             | spydum wrote:
             | Or they are counting bots and other ai agents and ignoring
             | the truth?
        
               | sahila wrote:
               | Ultimately advertisers want a return on their spend and
               | it's a closely watched metric for marketers. Them
               | continuing to spend is indicative that there's growing
               | value in ads, ie bots/ai agents cannot be the reason for
               | their growth.
               | 
               | You could argue fb and particularly twitter are
               | incentivized to include it in their DAU counts but market
               | cares more for revenue for large companies.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | "There is no alternative"
               | 
               | I wouldn't put it past Google/Meta coopting corporate
               | advertisers. Everyone makes everyone look good, by
               | stating the best possible numbers.
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | Google and Meta literally represent alternative
               | advertising products.
        
           | sharadov wrote:
           | You have no idea of Whatsapp's marketshare in India - all
           | small businesses use Whatsapp for all communication and even
           | take payments. That's a 1.4B population.
        
         | endisneigh wrote:
         | This site has always been a bubble.
        
           | okdood64 wrote:
           | Agreed. Reddit is a bubble too if you take note of the
           | viewpoints there, but that reaches a wider variety of folks.
           | Imagine how much of a bubble HN is.
        
             | Jensson wrote:
             | HN is a bubble where people listen to what you say even if
             | you argue against them, I haven't found any such place
             | anywhere else before. I've found some people who listen
             | even to people they disagree with on some niche forums, but
             | never a community as big as this with density this high.
             | 
             | Other than listening and arguing in relatively good faith I
             | don't think HN is a bubble, although such people probably
             | have pretty different opinions than the typical person
             | simply because they listen and change themselves more so it
             | gets more refined.
        
         | baron816 wrote:
         | I think that most of the traffic being stolen away is going to
         | be for low value searches. I (and probably almost everyone
         | else) use Google when I already know what I want, ie I'm trying
         | to get to a company's website to buy a particular thing, but
         | don't know their url name.
         | 
         | I'm not going to use an LLM to shop for car insurance or look
         | for hotels.
        
           | falcor84 wrote:
           | >I'm not going to use an LLM to shop for car insurance or
           | look for hotels.
           | 
           | As I understand it, this is a great use-case for AI agents
           | (a-la Custom GPT) and I wouldn't be surprised if the tech for
           | that matures over the next year.
        
             | linkjuice4all wrote:
             | I guess I could imagine how they might be helpful in
             | initial research - but no way I'm letting some LLM book a
             | hotel that might not exist or get me car insurance from
             | StratesFrarm Unsurance.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | > but no way I'm letting some LLM book a hotel that might
               | not exist or get me car insurance from StratesFrarm
               | Unsurance.
               | 
               | Ah, scammers targeting your LLM assistant will certainly
               | be a thing, this really sounds like the old "I bought the
               | Eiffel tower" scams.
        
           | amf12 wrote:
           | LLM responses have also started embedding ads [1], or LLM
           | responses are themselves ads [2]
           | 
           | - [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/17ky9sg/first
           | _time... - [2]
           | https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/04/reddit-sneaky-ai-
           | spa...
        
         | chatmasta wrote:
         | Google Search is a product embedded in the lives of everyone on
         | the planet. I wonder to what extent its growth is a reflection
         | of increasing population and Internet penetration. Even if
         | "competitive knowledge engines" impacted Google Search, the
         | effect would likely be minuscule compared to existing growth
         | trajectories.
         | 
         | Speaking personally, there are some queries where I prefer an
         | LLM. But usually I start with Google, and it's only after 5-10
         | searches that I get frustrated enough to remember I could just
         | ask ChatGPT instead. So ironically, I actually send _more_
         | searches to Google than I would have if they gave me the answer
         | on the first one.
         | 
         | I wonder what their search metrics would look like if they
         | removed quick bursts of searches. Presumably, someone searching
         | five times in a row is actually having a _bad_ experience,
         | rather than loving the product so much they came back to it
         | five times in one minute.
        
         | NtochkaNzvanova wrote:
         | > _essentially everyone in my social circle has moved on from
         | going to Google first for information. I guess our demographic
         | is not predictive of the larger market._
         | 
         | "Google is dead, no one goes there anymore" is one of the most
         | tired takes I see frequently on HN. It's nice to hear someone
         | express the self-awareness to realize that what they see in
         | their immediate circle is not representative of reality.
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | If you have a social circle where 100% of your contacts turn to
         | an LLM first, not only have you buried yourself deep in a niche
         | filter bubble, but you have also surrounded yourself with some
         | of the planet's most misinformed people. If I were you, I'd be
         | worried.
        
         | harmmonica wrote:
         | When you say moved on can you share what you're using when you
         | want/need to buy something online? Understand you moving on for
         | information, but just curious what you're using these days for
         | a specific product.
        
           | eitland wrote:
           | I went to Kagi.
           | 
           | Only better quality alternative I found that has the same
           | coverage and is available here.
           | 
           | FWIW for my purposes Marginalia is also a lot better quality
           | (less annoying, more likely to give me the results I want -
           | if it has them) than Google now but I cannot use it as my
           | only search engine since the index is still small.
           | 
           | The other big ones (Bing, DDG) managed to still be worse than
           | Google last time I tried despite Google goong out of their
           | way to make it easy for others to walk past them.
           | 
           | There was another interesting one but they discriminated
           | against non Americans and didn't even allow is to try so I
           | don't know. It looked promising though, but as long as kagi
           | don't betray us I get I stay with it.
        
           | ethbr1 wrote:
           | > _when you want /need to buy something online_
           | 
           | Not OP, but Kagi/reddit/trustedReviewSites/anywhereButAmazon.
        
         | cloudking wrote:
         | I think I am opted into an experiment, but when I use Google
         | search the first results are answers from their own LLM.
         | 
         | https://search.google/
        
         | sharadov wrote:
         | I was asking GPT some question reg a Postgres feature , it gave
         | me the answer with the caveat that it's knowledgebase hadn't
         | been updated in a year.
         | 
         | I went right back to google.
        
         | csxv68 wrote:
         | Or there is large scale number fudging and fraud.
         | 
         | Just remember no one is auditing what views, likes and clicks
         | count Google and Facebook tell you, you are getting.
         | Advertisers just milk corporations. They dont care if the
         | numbers are fake. They are now trained to tell everyone to
         | spend more or you dont get attention someone else will.
         | 
         | As Goldharber once famously said , about the Attention Economy
         | - people have limited attention to give anything but infinite
         | capacity to receive attention.
         | 
         | No one likes to hear or believe they dont really have any
         | influence when the system is signalling they do. So the ponzi
         | scheme grows larger and larger.
         | 
         | There is a great book about it (from an ex-googler) called the
         | Subprime Attention Crisis.
         | 
         | No one knows what to do about it so everyones head is buried
         | deep in the sand.
         | 
         | We need new attention allocation systems that are not market
         | driven.
        
       | addaon wrote:
       | Interesting that they think they're out of internal projects and
       | acquisitions to (profitably) spend money on. Even more
       | interesting that the stock seems to agree -- I guess investors
       | already believed that growth is over, and are seeing this
       | recognition of that as an alignment between reality and internal
       | strategy.
        
         | summerlight wrote:
         | The only major investment left would be computing
         | infrastructures, but it's severely limited by supply. Even if
         | Google wants to spend more money, simply there's no chips to
         | buy. I don't see any significant future investment
         | opportunities other than Waymo in the foreseeable future, but
         | it seems still far from scaling out.
        
           | addaon wrote:
           | > Even if Google wants to spend more money, simply there's no
           | chips to buy.
           | 
           | This strongly suggests that there's an opportunity to spend
           | money relaxing this shortage. If your business growth is
           | being throttled by suppliers, then investment either allows
           | you to grow those suppliers, or vertically integrate them out
           | of the picture.
        
             | utensil4778 wrote:
             | You can't just create new supply. Chip fabs take multiple
             | years to spool up. You also have to get the machines to
             | make the chips and guess what, those are supply constrained
             | too.
             | 
             | It's not a problem you can simply spend money at, it's a
             | global supply chain problem with many disparate companies
             | each with their own constrained supply chains.
        
             | summerlight wrote:
             | Yeah, I think Google should be actively working on
             | addressing shortage. But I don't think this can be solved
             | in the short term even with infinite capitals since ASML is
             | the fundamental bottleneck and everyone is competing for
             | the same limited capacity.
        
           | Workaccount2 wrote:
           | Google is in the fortunate position of having their own in
           | house AI compute modules (TPU's) that are more or less on par
           | with Nvidia chips.
           | 
           | They might have to compete for foundry time, but it's better
           | than having to compete for AI chips.
        
           | jankeymeulen wrote:
           | There is a $6B increase in purchase of properties and
           | equipment vs. 23Q1.
        
         | lupire wrote:
         | This is current position in the US economic cycle imposed by
         | the Fed. High interest rate, low investment. Return to safety.
        
       | nikhizzle wrote:
       | A possible endgame of this quest for growth is just mixing
       | unlabeled ads directly in with search content. Effectively pay
       | for ranking with some quality filter. I'm pretty sure it won't
       | come to that, but worse things have happened.
        
         | dabeeeenster wrote:
         | Like this doesnt happen already and hasnt been the case for the
         | last 10 years?
        
         | akomtu wrote:
         | Injecting ads into the actual search results looks egregious
         | today, but will be the norm later.
        
         | amf12 wrote:
         | Like this? https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/04/reddit-
         | sneaky-ai-spa...
        
       | ls612 wrote:
       | Up 15% after hours on news that they will begin a large cash
       | dividend and share repurchase program.
        
         | aeyes wrote:
         | They have have been buying back stock for a very long time
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | In fact they announced the same-sized buyback authorization
           | exactly 1 year ago.
        
             | lupire wrote:
             | How much of authorization was realized in actual purchase
             | last year?
             | 
             | Is this announcement a continuation of buybacks at the same
             | rate, or just a renewal of the headroom?
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Beats me. Their buybacks have accelerated over the last
               | decade and were about $60B each of 22 and 23.
        
       | brcmthrowaway wrote:
       | Congrats to Googlers
        
       | killjoywashere wrote:
       | Of all the people in this thread swearing they don't use Google,
       | I wonder how many are writing their comments using Chrome (or
       | Chromium, or Edge, or Brave, or Opera, or any other browser that
       | uses the guts of the Chromium project)
        
         | Liquix wrote:
         | Eh, Firefox is blazing fast and readily available. Avoiding
         | ReCaptcha on the other hand...
        
         | psunavy03 wrote:
         | "I don't use Facebook!" (goes off to check Instagram account)
        
         | einpoklum wrote:
         | I'd guess only a minority.
         | 
         | However, we should also remember that Mozilla's main funder
         | is... Google/Alphabet, via a royalty deal for having Google be
         | the default search engine. See, e.g., here:
         | 
         | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-05-05/why-go...
         | 
         | And while the royalties arrangement is not that old, Google was
         | a main funder before that happened as well. FYI.
        
         | christophilus wrote:
         | I use DuckDuckGo for search, Apple Maps when on my iPhone, and
         | Gnome Maps when on my computers. My main browser is Firefox,
         | but I use Brave (Safari-based) on iOS due to better ad blocking
         | there. I use local markdown files for all of my note taking,
         | and Fastmail for email.
         | 
         | But I am aware that I'm not typical.
        
           | fooker wrote:
           | Firefox is funded by Google.
           | 
           | Apple gets billions from Google, funding quite a bit of their
           | R&D.
           | 
           | Most of the open source software you use including the Linux
           | kernel has a bunch of contributors from Google.
           | 
           | Going one step further, Google has a large hand in open
           | standards for everything, from wifi to programming languages.
           | 
           | I'm not saying you should avoid these, it's just interesting
           | that you can take so many non-typical steps to avoid google
           | and still mandatorily have them involved in all of your
           | technology.
        
       | shegerking2020 wrote:
       | so much for all the google doomers. Just goes to show how
       | unintuitive all of this things are
        
       | advisedwang wrote:
       | Google has been doing stock buybacks for years. Why are they
       | pivoting to also doing a dividend too? Does a dividend give a
       | bigger short term stock bump?
        
         | didip wrote:
         | Signaling that growth will be slower.
        
       | einpoklum wrote:
       | Extrapolated annually, that's about 320 Billion. Even if you want
       | to normalize it by number of employees, it's it's over 1.7
       | Million USD/capita .
       | 
       | Capitalism is nuts.
        
       | browningstreet wrote:
       | What's impressive about growing the ads business (Meta too) is
       | how difficult it is buy ads and make campaigns.
        
       | pm2222 wrote:
       | meta.ai and groq, even bing copilot work for me. Google usage for
       | me has reduced a lot. As such I'm not optimistic about google's
       | search business.
        
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