[HN Gopher] The Arc Product-Market Fit Framework
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       The Arc Product-Market Fit Framework
        
       Author : msolujic
       Score  : 100 points
       Date   : 2024-04-13 04:55 UTC (18 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.sequoiacap.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.sequoiacap.com)
        
       | altdataseller wrote:
       | I wish they discussed startups that didn't require a lot of
       | capital or even bootstrapped startups. But of course they're a VC
       | firm so of course they can't
        
         | Terretta wrote:
         | This sounds a little nutty but if you want to be a bootstrapped
         | Rippling, it's possible.
         | 
         | A trick I've found repeatable is to find an enterprise that
         | doesn't shy away from big budgets (where six and preferably
         | seven figure budgets are fine even for unproven vendors,
         | because what's big/existential for you is
         | negligible/experimental for them), and is willing to buy a
         | product from you that requires "integration" (they love to
         | spend money on integration, plus that means it doesn't work on
         | day one!), where the "integration" cost is enough to bootstrap
         | the product AND integration (and your ramen!) at your internal
         | rates.
         | 
         | To avoid the bootstrap money going to overhead, to keep the
         | money for product build (engineering instead of paperwork), you
         | need to avoid getting "risk managed" like a mature vendor. Its
         | best for you to be a pilot, or proof of concept, or pet project
         | for a sponsor to show a concept they want the enterprise to do.
         | 
         | Pick your customers and product integrations carefully where
         | the work will pay for the enterprise capabilities most likely
         | to win your next sale. Use these big contracts like lilypads to
         | cross the pond to the other side of Geoffry Moore's "chasm"
         | between early adopters and early majoriy.
        
           | omneity wrote:
           | > find an enterprise that doesn't shy away from big budgets
           | 
           | How do you identify such enterprises?
        
             | lelanthran wrote:
             | > How do you identify such enterprises?
             | 
             | Impossible, unless you already have an in with someone high
             | up in the management chain to approve your $1m/3months
             | proposal.
             | 
             | Enterprises that don't shy away from big budgets have a
             | constant stream of multiple suitors all thinking the way
             | you are, many of them more experienced with doing this as
             | well.
        
               | extr wrote:
               | In case anyone was wondering how to make such
               | connections: attend a top 5 MBA program or have a long
               | history in management consulting, preferably both.
        
       | vinay_ys wrote:
       | A nice framework that's constructed retrospectively. Will it hold
       | true in the future, maybe, maybe not. The thing that makes the
       | most difference are not these broad ontological things, but short
       | time horizon tradeoff equations around talent/skills available in
       | the market, access to early customers and who/what they want,
       | your personal network, your innate temperament/mindset in making
       | day to day decisions.
        
       | _pdp_ wrote:
       | There is also luck.
        
         | max_ wrote:
         | The word luck has no meaning. Otherwise everything is luck.
        
         | safeimp wrote:
         | I think where luck should be considered is possibly around
         | timing but otherwise luck will only get you so far.
        
           | klabb3 wrote:
           | This rings true, but understates just how important timing
           | can be. A difference of just a couple of years can be
           | enormous.
        
       | SCUSKU wrote:
       | Obviously coming from Sequoia there won't be an bootstrapped
       | approach, but I'd love to see one for that.
       | 
       | For bootstrappers, the approach I've heard of is simply just
       | nicheing down to find a segment of the market that is big enough
       | to support you, but small enough to not be worth it to bigger
       | players.
        
         | geoffreypoirier wrote:
         | Well put! Nice framing.
        
         | user_7832 wrote:
         | > For bootstrappers, the approach I've heard of is simply just
         | nicheing down to find a segment of the market that is big
         | enough to support you, but small enough to not be worth it to
         | bigger players.
         | 
         | Thank you, as someone hoping to bootstrap myself this is makes
         | sense. Any idea how to make the niche smaller? The broader
         | market I'm thinking of is huge (likely billions of customers),
         | I suppose I could charge more to narrow it down but that has
         | other risks.
        
           | DelaneyM wrote:
           | Pick one single customer and fanatically meet their
           | individual needs. Then add a second. Repeat until you're no
           | longer needing to tweak your system to delight a new
           | customer. At that point you need sales and you have a
           | business! :)
        
             | DenisM wrote:
             | You will quite likely end up with a non-scalable "services"
             | business instead of a scalable "product" business. I did.
        
             | user_7832 wrote:
             | In the idealized solution that I would build/provide, I'd
             | already be meeting the needs of many individuals with
             | "just" one top-of-the-line product. The only issue, and the
             | need for quotes, is because this no-compromise product that
             | would likely be competitive with the best in the industry,
             | would also be quite expensive.
             | 
             | This, fortunately or not, kind of circles back to the "make
             | more expensive products" aspect.
        
           | esafak wrote:
           | Take the intersection of two categories.
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | This has little to do with whether you are VC backed or
         | bootstrapped.
         | 
         | The amount of effort to sustain yourself is going to be almost
         | the same regardless of which category you are in. Either you
         | have a category that is popular but will attract dozens of
         | competitors no matter how small your niche is or you have a
         | product that requires effort to market.
         | 
         | These days with so many no/low-code tools getting a product
         | into market has never been easier. And that's both a positive
         | and negative for bootstrappers.
        
       | jamesblonde wrote:
       | For our company we are in 2 phases. In the cloud, it's 'hair on
       | fire'. MLOps is a hot space. For on-premises, MLOps is basically
       | download MLFlow and Kubeflow and you think you're sorted. So it's
       | the 'hard fact' segment.
        
         | richardw wrote:
         | Not on premises who are regulated and might have enterprise
         | requirements. If you need eg role based access control you
         | can't use on prem MLFlow etc. So you could niche down to
         | customers who don't know this yet. Smaller banks, insurers etc.
         | 
         | Edit: we went through this. Started putzing around with open
         | source things on prem on Openshift. Ended up on Databricks for
         | a variety of reasons. The impact on the business to be wiring
         | up lots of new widgets, maintaining them, training, ability to
         | switch to new components when required. Lean team, so turn
         | Databricks on and secure it properly, exclude PI where
         | possible, sort out ETL and CICD etc, profit. Delegate MLOps
         | stack innovation to the vendor and focus on our own job.
        
       | curo wrote:
       | I'm curious how education or entertainment companies fit into
       | this framework, or how they think about PMF in general.
       | 
       | Was Duolingo targeting customers who accepted the "hard fact"
       | that passive audio was the only way to learn a language? Was
       | MasterClass a "future vision" because people didn't believe
       | celebrities would spend their time teaching? Or is it that we
       | NEED education and entertainment, so these two providers just
       | differentiated from a crowded market.
        
         | lukeahn wrote:
         | Yeah, to me, Duolingo seems to be Hard Fact. But MasterClass
         | might be also Hard Fact. MasterClass is not a totally different
         | education service compared to the existing incumbents. Online
         | university could be MasterClass.
        
         | klabb3 wrote:
         | Alternatively Duolingo sells a casual memory game that
         | differentiate by giving the illusion of productivity. And
         | Masterclass sells attention and status to a class of people who
         | are already attention-oriented by stroking their egos. I'm not
         | saying this hot take is necessarily true, but the market isn't
         | always categorized by what we intuitively think. And realizing
         | that can sometimes give you a massive benefit, simply by
         | applying existing and effective techniques (in these cases
         | gamification and people-oriented success storytelling,
         | respectively) from a domain your competitors don't understand
         | or care about.
        
       | spxneo wrote:
       | My perspective changed from thinking PMF was a lottery when in
       | reality its just sales/marketing grinding until something works.
       | 
       | The reason I used to think this is like other technically
       | orientated founders. If I build for a market that doesn't exist
       | then you are playing lotto. It's not even good odds, you are
       | better off playing 0dte spx coin flip.
       | 
       | What you fear you build for and if all you have are unknowns then
       | you are going to simply end up building everything lose
       | differentiation and your potential customers even if they find
       | you will walk
       | 
       | Despite classics like the SBF article that was taken down, this
       | framework is quite good but the best thing to do as bootstrappers
       | is to focus on generating net positive cashflow as soon as
       | possible not running a PMF search engine which requires lot of
       | minds and capital injection.
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | It is a lottery though.
         | 
         | My partner started a business and literally from her first ad
         | she was inundated with customers. Now it's a $10m/year
         | bootstrapped business. I've done exactly the same thing and had
         | 0 customers.
         | 
         | If you are falling into the Hard Fact / Future Vision
         | categories it can very hard to get customers because no one is
         | ever looking for your product.
        
           | spxneo wrote:
           | that just means she had the PMF to begin with
           | 
           | if you done the same and have 0 customers that means you did
           | something incorrectly.
           | 
           | it is IMPOSSIBLE to do the same thing that works and net 0
           | customers.
        
       | ekianjo wrote:
       | I think it is missing one category. VR for example may be on the
       | future vision side but may end up only be a market niche.
        
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       (page generated 2024-04-13 23:00 UTC)