[HN Gopher] French company ramps up production to meet demand fo...
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       French company ramps up production to meet demand for its military
       drone radar
        
       Author : dClauzel
       Score  : 49 points
       Date   : 2024-04-08 20:49 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.politico.eu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.politico.eu)
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | > Since the war in Ukraine started, the French government has
       | urged companies to produce more weapons, faster and cheaper.
       | 
       | > However, the reality is complicated.
       | 
       | > "It's an ongoing process. Up until now, we were producing
       | around 10 radars a year, now the target is over 20 a year,"
       | Descourvieres said.
       | 
       | If there was an actual _war_ on, and a nation was taking both
       | combat and operational losses - then 10 or 20 per year hardly
       | amounts to squat.
       | 
       | It seems hard to imagine that this is the country which
       | constructed the Maginot Line - in a decade, mostly during a grim
       | economic depression, when their entire nation's population was
       | only a bit over 40M.
        
         | stefan_ wrote:
         | It's getting hard to believe anything in this world anymore. A
         | million shells fired by the Germans in Verdun in a mere 8 hours
         | and now the entirety of Europe can't make that number in a
         | year.
        
           | ttoinou wrote:
           | Those aren't the same shells though
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | They would work and be better than the nothing we have.
             | Well some minor adustment for 155mm shells.
        
           | simmerup wrote:
           | Just wait until we see what China can produce for a war
        
             | throwaway9870 wrote:
             | Add about two zeros to what the West collectively can
             | build.
        
           | hibikir wrote:
           | Did you ever read on the early parts of the war, during the
           | race to the sea? Both sides were extremely low on ammunition,
           | as they realized that their ideas of how much ordinance would
           | be used in a real war were completely wrong. It took a really
           | long time to ramp up production capacity to get anywhere near
           | Verdun, and for the biggest horrors of WWI's trench warfare
           | to appear.
           | 
           | Everyone kind of learned their lesson for WWII, as the real
           | signal that war was coming wasn't actual invasion, but the
           | ramping up of industry to actually supply combat. The US
           | intervention in Europe couldn't have happened much earlier,
           | because setting up the logistics to do any intervention
           | whatsoever took years... and this was at a time where, while
           | the US still claimed neutrality, the country was already
           | changing their industrial production to be able to begin
           | intervention.
           | 
           | So even in the good old days, nobody could change their
           | industrial capacity to supply a war on a dime. And if there
           | is no war, the costs of dedicating so much production to
           | unused equipment is prohibitive
        
         | LunaSea wrote:
         | Few reasons, one of them is that the Maginot line was built
         | during a time where France was an industrial powerhouse. This
         | has not been the case in a long time.
         | 
         | The other point, is that you are comparing a public
         | infrastructure project with a private company.
         | 
         | Said private company behaves like one and does not want to take
         | unnecessary risks by recruiting and training too much staff and
         | later not having enough orders to keep them on the payroll.
        
           | swores wrote:
           | Minor pedantic FYI - although your comment was clear (I
           | think, or maybe I did misunderstand it), there's a linguistic
           | difference between "Few reasons" (meaning "there aren't many
           | reasons) and "A few reasons" (meaning "more than one", but
           | implying that you're introducing the reasons, not that you're
           | quantifying them as not many).
        
         | ciscoriordan wrote:
         | A depression cuts both ways -- lower tax revenue, but lower
         | labor costs too.
        
         | Twirrim wrote:
         | Unsurprisingly enough, complicated technology requires
         | complicated manufacturing capabilities and finite time to
         | create, QA etc.
         | 
         | These radar systems are many orders of magnitude more
         | complicated than anything manufactured during WW2. It's not
         | something easily scaled up.
        
         | boricj wrote:
         | If France were to be at war with a nation knocking on our
         | borders, our policy nowadays is to fire a nuclear-tipped ASMPA
         | missile _as a warning shot_. We do not rely on our conventional
         | forces or anyone else to safeguard our sovereignty should it
         | escalate to that.
         | 
         | Our army and arms industry have suffered heavy cuts for thirty
         | years after the end of the Cold War, prioritizing quality over
         | quantity, but we've kept what we call a _modele d 'armee
         | complet_, or an army with a complete set of capabilities,
         | alongside the arms industry to sustain it. Said arms industry
         | after spending decades surviving on frugal orders is now in the
         | process of scaling up production substantially. It takes time,
         | but we've already tripled production of Caesar self-propelled
         | artillery with another doubling in sight for example.
         | 
         | If push comes to shove, we might take some time to wake up from
         | our slumber, but we're French. Picking a fight with the Gallic
         | rooster is usually a bad decision.
        
           | tekla wrote:
           | French military doctrine: We will Nuke you as a warning. If
           | that doesn't get the message across, we will empty our
           | nuclear arsenal until all of your miserable cities are rubble
           | and your farmlands are glass.
        
             | boricj wrote:
             | There's a famous quote by _De Gaulle_ from the early 1960s
             | which basically states that France isn 't worth the price
             | of killing 80 million people over, even if you have the
             | means of killing over 800 million French people.
             | 
             | Also, we don't need American ballistic missiles to do so,
             | unlike our friends on the other side of the English
             | Channel.
        
           | ptero wrote:
           | I suspect the doctrine of nuke as a warning shot is less
           | effective today when a small group can launch, either for own
           | purposes or as a proxy for another state, a large group of
           | drones to strike with speed and precision the targets 1000+
           | km away. With that threat type nuking is not an option and we
           | are back to traditional defense. My 2c.
        
         | hibikir wrote:
         | Not unlike with vaccines, massive production ramp ups are
         | possible once the suppliers know that they aren't carrying any
         | significant risk of losing a lot of money for overbuilding
         | capacity.
         | 
         | As some of us learned in the pandemic, increases in production
         | capacity that are not going to be long term will get your
         | company hobbled, if not downright bankrupted if you
         | overproduce. See what happened to anyone that assumed the
         | demand for exercise equipment for the home was going to be long
         | lived.
         | 
         | When looking at this kind of problems, it's always either
         | regulation or incentives.. and here it isn't regulation, so
         | it's all incentives.
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | The Maginot line in France has become synonymous with a useless
         | measure of defence providing a false sense of security though.
         | 
         | It's a combination of several things.
         | 
         | First military hardware is a lot more expensive. A ww2 tank was
         | a big piece of iron with a diesel engine in it, a modern tank
         | has a ton more tech, all produced in small series (imagine the
         | cost of the iphone if only 1000 were manufactured a year).
         | That's even worst for planes. You can't line up an army on the
         | scale of ww2 armies. And since the EU can't agree on single
         | plane or tank design anyway, the volumes for each device are
         | tiny and design/fixed costs hugely expensive to amortise.
         | 
         | Then you have socialist or quasi-socialist governments all over
         | Europe, in France in particular, but even in the UK, slashing
         | military budgets to launch big redistribution programs, along
         | with building up big bureaucracies since the 80s. Government
         | spending managed to go up as the share of military spending and
         | other basic services (police, justice) went down. The problem
         | with benefits is that people come to rely on them and then it
         | becomes politically impossible to cut them back (same thing in
         | the US), unless you have a Thatcher, but there is none on the
         | horizon. So basically now these countries are stuck and have
         | zero wriggle room even to face imminent danger.
         | 
         | That's the cost of free riding on US military spending for half
         | a century. If an elected Trump walks away from both Ukraine and
         | NATO, Putin will have free reign to bully the other missing
         | pieces of his russian empire (moldavia, baltic states, even
         | poland). And there will be little a country like France will be
         | able to do with its small military samples. Its army was seized
         | to bomb terrorist camps in Africa and nuke an invader. They
         | have nothing in between.
        
           | TMWNN wrote:
           | >The Maginot line in France has become synonymous with a
           | useless measure of defence providing a false sense of
           | security though.
           | 
           | ... which has absolutely nothing to do with bell-cot's point
           | in invoking it as a counterexample to France's current
           | production ability.
        
             | cm2187 wrote:
             | Even re production. It's only a massive piece of concrete.
             | France is still good at pouring massive amonts of concrete,
             | that's what all of its suburbs are made of. The line was
             | not exactly a marvel of engineering even for the time (and
             | neither forward looking).
        
       | Ajay-p wrote:
       | Well, I mean, China has probably already stolen it. Given the
       | nature of espionage it's highly likely the U.S. has the details
       | and can build it on their own.
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | There must be many ways to come at the problem of spotting drones
       | including sound, visual, radio.
       | 
       | Presumably it's just a matter of time once the boffins apply
       | themselves to the task before drones are effectively defended
       | against?
       | 
       | Maybe this is a naive outlook. I can image drones sitting 300
       | feet above a tank dropping a bomb on it - hard to see or stop
       | that. Or maybe drones that switch off all communication and glide
       | in without radio communication once they spot their target.
       | 
       | Regardless, you can be sure there's absolutely massive money
       | being spent on drone defence right now by governments around the
       | world.
        
         | ceejayoz wrote:
         | I suspect we're going to see a big resurgence in anti-aircraft
         | guns, like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard.
        
           | andrewstuart wrote:
           | Of all shapes and sizes. I can imagine a robot M16 attached
           | to a drone spotter might be effective against the sort of
           | small drones that are hitting tanks in Ukraine.
        
             | cm2187 wrote:
             | Plus people will get a lot less worked up about AI picking
             | and aiming at targets in the air vs on the ground.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | Why not a 20 mm cannon?
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS
        
           | jazzyjackson wrote:
           | why fire ammo when you have laser beams?
           | 
           | https://bluehalo.com/c-uas-autonomous-systems/c-uas-
           | directed...
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | Directed energy weapons are still in their early days,
             | they're not powerful enough to just shrug off all sorts of
             | potential countermeasures the way a solid chunk of metal
             | hitting the target does.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | Or on a smaller scale, something homebrew like a bunch of
           | AK-74s attached to something resembling a minigun [1]. Or the
           | other way around, take old AA guns, place them on the back of
           | a pickup and shred Russian infantry without mercy [2].
           | 
           | Certainly the Ukrainians are showing the future when it comes
           | to land-based wars; the question is how many of these we're
           | actually going to see.
           | 
           | [1] https://armourersbench.com/2023/07/09/ukraines-
           | improvised-an...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.thedailybeast.com/ingenious-ukrainians-
           | invent-ho...
        
         | sand500 wrote:
         | Could train birds of prey to actively hunt down and rip apart
         | drones.
         | 
         | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/the-milit...
        
       | CrzyLngPwd wrote:
       | When you are not at war, and your defence alliance is also not at
       | war, and the only perception of war is from the most paranoid
       | nation on the planet, who is also part of your alliance, then
       | ramping up defence spending isn't about defence, it's about
       | profit.
       | 
       | War is a racket. Nothing more. Maybe "Ar est une raquette" makes
       | it sound sexier, I dunno.
       | 
       | https://www.heritage-history.com/site/hclass/secret_societie...
        
         | adaml_623 wrote:
         | Phew so glad we've fixed that war problem. Sadly defence
         | spending is a bit like vaccinations.
        
         | mrighele wrote:
         | Ideally you want to prepare for war _before_ the war actually
         | starts.
         | 
         | The perception doesn't come from a paranoid nation, but the
         | fact that a neighbor is actually at war and the invader keep
         | telling that after that it will be your turn.
        
         | gwervc wrote:
         | Especially with Macron under which the national debt
         | skyrocketed. We are supposed to find a lot of money really
         | quickly but he always spends _billions_ on outside issues
         | without public consultation.
         | 
         | Heck, there's a promise for 3 new billions just this year!
         | That's insane. All that money is going to waste in a war that
         | isn't ours, and that is lost for Ukraine from day 1. Of course
         | in the end of the day it will be citizens like me would have to
         | pay for that through new and higher taxes. As if we weren't
         | already in the top 2 in that matter...
         | https://www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/france-ukraine-jusqua-3-m...
        
         | rat87 wrote:
         | France is an ally of Ukraine and making sure Russia loses it's
         | baseless imperialistic invasion of Ukraine is the EUs #1
         | foreign policy priority, because if it doesn't it might attack
         | NATO/EU members.
        
         | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
         | The pamphlet was written in 1935.
         | 
         | Then came probably America most just war, fighting Japan and
         | Hitler.
         | 
         | War may be a racket 99% of the time, but that 1% really
         | matters.
        
       | fjfaase wrote:
       | From what I heard about the SMART-L [1] radar around 1990, it
       | could spot reflective objects the size of tennis balls at a
       | distance of about 100Km.
       | 
       | I guess with modern electronics and DSP, a much smaller system
       | must be able to detect drones with ease.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMART-L
        
         | AlexanderTheGr8 wrote:
         | What if you cover the drone with non-reflective material? Or
         | does it care about the reflective nature of the core of the
         | object rather than just the surface?
        
       | AlexanderTheGr8 wrote:
       | I read the article but couldn't find any mention of how a radar
       | detects drones? A drone is much smaller than an aircraft, can be
       | confused with birds and can have 0 communication with a command &
       | control station due to AI. So how can anything detect it?
       | 
       | Plus, even if you detect it, it's coming towards you at a speed
       | of 100+ kmph with the intent to crash into you and detonate the
       | payload. Any missile you use is way too expensive relative to the
       | price of the drone. So what to do?
       | 
       | I say this bec the drone footage coming out of Ukraine is
       | shocking. I saw a video of a drone just following a soldier for
       | 30 seconds while the soldier was trying to run away from it. The
       | drone crashed into the soldier and exploded. That is absolutely
       | black-mirror dystopian stuff.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | You're making a lot of wrong assumptions, drones can be any
         | size, nobody's talking about missiles to shoot them down, not
         | all drones are kamikaze, &c.
         | 
         | If they're already being produced they do work for their
         | intended purpose, Thales doesn't fuck around
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | These videos are horrible. On one side I feel for that kid who
         | probably didn't chose to be there and grappling with imminent
         | death. On the other hand if my country was invaded I would
         | probably watch those videos with popcorn. It's a weird war,
         | mixing social media with a ww1 trench war, military hardware
         | with a share button, you get to watch the horror of the
         | trenches from under your duvet.
         | 
         | The other thing is those drones are mostly made of plastic,
         | have no hot exhaust. Every time Ukraine is glad they shot a
         | $50k drone with a $1m patriot missile I wonder where this war
         | can possibly go.
        
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