[HN Gopher] Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
        
       Author : traviswingo
       Score  : 157 points
       Date   : 2024-04-06 14:52 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | walterbell wrote:
       | https://archive.is/SSXdN
        
       | consultutah wrote:
       | Vexcel doesn't use drones. They use manned aircraft. Drones are
       | almost never used for insurance. There are a couple of companies
       | that do, but the costs are still too high for it to make sense.
        
         | VHRanger wrote:
         | I don't think the problem people have with this is the type of
         | air vehicle used to take the picture
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | Surprisingly, it seems to me that you are wrong. People will
           | absolutely lose their minds whenever they hear about an
           | unmanned aircraft, but never talk about manned aircraft.
           | There have been tons of news articles about "police drones"
           | an other kinds of scaremongering, that never seem to note
           | that the cops using an airplane to follow you in the dark has
           | been a thing for decades. The _only_ new thing is the pilot
           | does not necessarily need to sit in the aircraft.
        
             | nneonneo wrote:
             | _I_ would definitely mind if the police were following me
             | personally in an airplane...
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Did you recently rob a bank or carjack an old lady? If
               | not, I sincerely doubt that anyone would go to the
               | trouble of following you around.
        
               | nneonneo wrote:
               | Yes, but clearly an insurance company _will_ go to the
               | trouble of flying a plane around my house. Whether it's
               | manned or unmanned is immaterial - I wouldn't want them
               | to do it.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | You want to have insurance but you're not willing to let
               | your insurer inspect the covered assets?
        
               | s1gsegv wrote:
               | Due to the cost of doing so, right. If the aircraft were
               | suddenly unmanned and significantly cheaper to fly in
               | potentially great quantities, it's easier to justify
               | doing so "just in case."
               | 
               | It's concerning to think that because police have
               | traditionally had tools that were quite powerful in
               | single use to balance out technology limitations of the
               | time, this balance should not be rethought when the usage
               | becomes significantly more efficient.
               | 
               | If you have to get a black van and big dish microphone to
               | surveil someone's single conversation in the park, it's
               | going to be employed when there's already a strong
               | suspicion, seems fair. Now if you're able to hide a
               | wireless microphone in every tree, computer-transcribe
               | everything that's said 24/7, and match it with cameras
               | that can capture facial recognition data, you can build a
               | file of everything everyone says in public, just in case
               | you have to find something against them. What's more, you
               | can have an AI scrutinize every single conversation and
               | sentiment on a scale that is not otherwise possible.
               | 
               | All of this uses the same fundamental rights, but clearly
               | the outcome poses a huge problem.
        
             | SilasX wrote:
             | Haha exactly. Same thing for military drone strikes. I've
             | noticed way too much of the debate focused on the "drone"
             | part and not the "hey do you have an adequate process for
             | target selection, civilian review, and consequences for
             | targeting the wrong people?" The specifics of the hardware
             | should be irrelevant to that question.
        
         | _tom_ wrote:
         | I suspect the only reason they don't use drones is range. Once
         | they have a match, it'll be drones all the way.
        
       | malfist wrote:
       | If insurance is individually priced to this degree, what's the
       | point of insurance?
        
         | mb7733 wrote:
         | Why would insurance being individually priced negate its value?
         | The benefit of insurance is the pooling of the risk. The more
         | individually it is priced, the more efficiently it works. (Not
         | that I'm a fan of insurers spying on their customers from the
         | sky...)
        
           | gmd63 wrote:
           | Insurance incentives would drive them to want to predict as
           | accurately as possible who is going to cost them money, and
           | then deny them coverage. They make money from selling to
           | people who are afraid of a calamity but likely won't
           | experience one.
        
             | kjkjadksj wrote:
             | Why are they in the business of denying coverage? They are
             | insurance. They estimate their payouts from the entire pool
             | and price your premiums accordingly. Paying out should
             | therefore not really affect their bottom line if they price
             | the premiums appropriately.
        
               | gmd63 wrote:
               | Home insurance companies are leaving Florida because it's
               | not profitable to operate in an area with so much
               | vulnerability to hurricane damage.
               | 
               | Also, the only thing stopping medical insurers from
               | denying coverage or increasing prices for people with
               | pre-existing conditions is the Affordable Care Act.
        
               | t0mas88 wrote:
               | There is an important additional factor, regulators are
               | setting limits on rates / rate increases. Florida is not
               | profitable with those limits. If the insurance companies
               | are free to set any rate, they would happily cover a high
               | hurricane risk area.
               | 
               | You can get insurance on very risky things. The way it's
               | done is high rates and "reinsurance" which means the
               | insurance company shares the risk (and premium) with a
               | pool of other insurance companies. For policies with a
               | large possible payout (e.g. a big ship or aircraft) this
               | is always done, to avoid issues for the insurance company
               | that gets unlucky enough to have to pay out.
        
               | gmd63 wrote:
               | Well apparently it's not hurricanes or regulation against
               | accurate pricing, it's rampant fraud fueled by a state
               | supreme court decision to incentivize winning cases for
               | policyholders
               | 
               | https://www.iii.org/press-release/triple-i-extreme-fraud-
               | and...
               | 
               | "Florida, however, is the site of 79 percent of all
               | homeowners insurance lawsuits over claims filed
               | nationwide while Florida's insurers receive only 9
               | percent of all U.S. homeowners insurance claims,
               | according to the Florida governor's Office."
        
               | imgabe wrote:
               | The whole point of insurance is that there is a
               | relatively low probability of a relatively high expense
               | event happening. In all likelihood, the thing won't
               | happen to you, but if we all pool our money together and
               | you are the unlucky person then you're covered.
               | 
               | A pre-existing condition is not a low probability event.
               | It is a 100% certainty that you have to pay for it. In
               | that case the insurance is just a middleman who is
               | increasing the cost of the thing you definitely have to
               | pay for. You pay the insurance company, they take a cut,
               | and they pay the healthcare provider. Why not just pay
               | the healthcare provider directly?
        
               | theptip wrote:
               | Tail risk / volatility.
        
             | imgabe wrote:
             | At some point the cost of insurance would approach the cost
             | of simply self insuring. Why should I pay the insurance
             | company to maybe replace the roof if I can just keep $20k
             | in a savings account in case I need to replace the roof?
        
           | jcims wrote:
           | Because at the limit, the size of the pool is one...you.
        
             | mb7733 wrote:
             | Accurately pricing insurance doesn't reduce the size of the
             | pool.
             | 
             | When you buy insurance, you aren't just pooling risk with
             | other customers with the exact same risk profile as
             | yourself. You're pooling with all customers of the company.
             | (Plus all customers of any reinsurance company, etc.)
        
               | rrix2 wrote:
               | It's not being individually priced, people at higher
               | risks are being forced out of their insurance options
               | leaving only low-risk individuals priced in! Non-renewal
               | isn't just some rate adjustment
        
               | pishpash wrote:
               | It is just a very high rate if they could charge it, but
               | that's the point: when the uncertainty is nil, the
               | premium will always be the replacement cost when the
               | replacement is about to happen, so that there's no
               | insurance.
               | 
               | Put another way, if the insurance company isn't taking on
               | any risk then you are.
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | Are there a lot of downsides to that for home/liability
               | insurance?
               | 
               | Obviously with something like medical insurance, where
               | people often carry risks that are no fault of their own,
               | there are downsides.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | It seems perfectly reasonable to treat someone taking
             | singular risks differently than someone taking average
             | risks.
        
             | twoodfin wrote:
             | Exactly. And insurance is still a good deal even if the
             | expected value for that one member pool is negative. In
             | fact, insurance as a market doesn't work unless the average
             | customer loses out. This is not a bad thing!
        
           | pishpash wrote:
           | The insurance paradox. If you can price every risk precisely,
           | meaning the variance on your prediction is zero, there's no
           | point to insurance because it would be the same as a savings
           | account.
           | 
           | There's no pooling of risk at all.
        
             | edflsafoiewq wrote:
             | Even if you know the probability of an event precisely, you
             | still don't know if it will actually occur. And even if you
             | know it will actually occur, you still don't know when, so
             | insurance still provides diffusion over time.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > Why would insurance being individually priced negate its
           | value?
           | 
           | Perfectly accurate insurance pricing would be for each policy
           | to cost exactly the amount of covered losses in the period
           | covered plus the overhead of managing the insurance, which
           | obviously would be pointless.
        
             | shepherdjerred wrote:
             | That wouldn't be pointless, because you would have a
             | predictable expense instead of an unpredictable expense.
             | What you're describing is actually the ideal scenario for
             | both individuals and companies.
        
               | lamontcg wrote:
               | Yes, so the insurance company should underwrite your roof
               | for a fixed cost (adjusted for inflation) on your home.
               | After 20 years of paying into that pool they shouldn't be
               | able to just drop you now that your roof is old and
               | pocket all the money and walk away and leave you with a
               | roof that needs replacement.
               | 
               | What I'd expect is that you pay into the pool and then
               | after 20 years you've more than paid for the new roof and
               | so you get a new roof.
               | 
               | It should be slightly stochastic financing of your new
               | roof and since a roof has a finite lifetime there should
               | be a new roof at the end of it. It shouldn't be "hey,
               | looks like your roof is about to have issues now, and we
               | only insure new roofs, thanks for the profits,
               | byeeeeee...."
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > That wouldn't be pointless, because you would have a
               | predictable expense instead of an unpredictable expense.
               | What you're describing is actually the ideal scenario for
               | both individuals and companies
               | 
               | No, if the expense were that predictable, the best case
               | would be dispense with insurance entirely, since it
               | effects the cost not at all and imposes overhead,
               | especially insurance where the rates are accurately
               | computed over short periods.
               | 
               | Without uncertainty, there is no point in insurance.
        
         | pclmulqdq wrote:
         | If you can afford to rebuild your house after a fire, there
         | will be no point (and there never was a point).
         | 
         | Insurance has always been a negative-EV trade for the average
         | person, but there have been mispricings that make it positive-
         | EV when you have more information than the insurance company.
         | However, the inefficiency meant that you also had to pay for
         | the uncertainty on their estimate of your risk.
         | 
         | With less uncertainty, the spread in the market should go down,
         | and your premium should converge to something close to your
         | actual risk plus the cost to assess your risk.
        
           | lukevp wrote:
           | Plus the salaries of the sales teams and the marketing budget
           | and the executive bonuses and fancy offices... or were you
           | rolling all that up into "cost to assess"?
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | Insurance is (theoretically) a competitive market, so no,
             | those salaries are actually not included - aside from the
             | compensation of the people building and conducting risk
             | assessments. I'm not convinced most insurance companies
             | make a ton off of home insurance specifically - I have
             | heard that healthcare coverage (which is barely an
             | insurance product) is the big profit maker, along with car
             | insurance.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Most home insurers aren't really in the medical insurance
               | business. And, as you indicate, most medical "insurance"
               | companies no longer actually bear much risk. They make
               | their profits by administering health plans for self-
               | insured employers. The profit margin for that is low but
               | the volumes are huge.
        
           | orangecat wrote:
           | _Insurance has always been a negative-EV trade for the
           | average person_
           | 
           | Negative EV in terms of dollars, but not necessarily utility.
           | For most people, a 1% chance of losing their $500k home is
           | worse than paying a $5100 premium.
        
         | bottom999mottob wrote:
         | Higher liability means they need to extract more money from
         | you. That's the point of insurance. See: wildfires in
         | California and flooding in Florida causing insurers to pull
         | out. Once the insurance companies lose money, the risk is too
         | high...
        
         | op00to wrote:
         | To make you whole after a loss that you would be unable to pay
         | for out of pocket. Fire, major water damage ... that's about
         | it.
        
         | skybrian wrote:
         | If you could predict which house will burn down, there would be
         | no point:
         | 
         | "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go
         | there." - Charles Munger
         | 
         | But we don't actually know the future that well, so even if we
         | know that some houses are riskier than others, it's still worth
         | buying.
        
       | antisthenes wrote:
       | Undeclared trampolines? What kind of insurance is this?
       | 
       | I don't remember my house insurance (or medical, or any other
       | kind really) being this detailed. I just picked rough estimates
       | for the value of my structure and the items inside, and that was
       | about it? There might have also been a waiver about not doing any
       | hazardous activities like open fires or storing chemicals on the
       | property.
       | 
       | It definitely wasn't this detailed.
        
         | 1123581321 wrote:
         | I was asked about a trampoline with two major carriers. I
         | believe they would have been satisfied to know it was netted,
         | similarly to how they want pools fenced.
        
         | egeozcan wrote:
         | After reading that, my mind is generating weird scenarios in
         | which undeclared trampolines are causing tragedies.
         | 
         | Trampolines can indeed cause accidents but is that big of a
         | risk to have one? That feels so out of place it's beyond
         | comical.
        
           | mikepurvis wrote:
           | Probably a case of trying to get something out of the
           | information that happens to be available. Maybe they'll also
           | adjust your rates based when you get your roof redone or
           | whether you park in your driveway?
        
           | flutas wrote:
           | It's probably about risk more than anything.
           | 
           | Trampoline installed well (i.e. staked down) with proper
           | netting = who cares
           | 
           | Trampoline unsecured, no net = wind risk, personal injury
           | risk, death risk
        
             | kjkjadksj wrote:
             | Honestly from growing up the riskiest bit was when the
             | springs gave out from holding the material. Net or no kids
             | are going to drag it over to the garage one day and jump
             | from the roof onto it. Better hope the webbing the springs
             | mount into is in good shape.
        
           | secabeen wrote:
           | Generally yes, because the liability for injury would be on
           | you, as the trampoline owner. Compare the probability of a
           | guest breaking their leg when visiting your home vs if you
           | have an unsafe trampoline. Insurers are prepared for the
           | small risk in the former, but have not priced in the latter
           | risk to a standard policy.
        
             | devbent wrote:
             | Trampolines are obscenely high risk and injuries are very
             | common. On top of that, if a neighborhood kid comes in to
             | your yard and breaks their leg on your trampoline, your
             | home owners insurance is going to be involved.
        
               | doubled112 wrote:
               | Is this something we just don't worry about in Canada?
               | Because we only pay to park at the hospital?
        
               | devbent wrote:
               | Possibly. Health insurance companies may want to sue the
               | home owner insurance company to try and recoup costs.
        
               | 1123581321 wrote:
               | You still have to cover the extended medical care in
               | Canada and they are often bigger than the initial
               | hospital stay in the most expensive cases in either
               | country (years-long therapy, chronic injuries, etc.)
               | 
               | The tortable aspect (compensation for causing personal
               | injury) must also be covered.
        
               | t0mas88 wrote:
               | Probably the liability is also different? You're much
               | more likely to be liable for some things in the US
               | compared to other places.
               | 
               | In my part of Europe, if someone breaks something while
               | making normal use of your trampoline that would be
               | considered an accident. You would only be liable if you
               | had grossly neglected maintenance on the thing, knew that
               | (or would reasonably be expected to know that), and they
               | can prove that this has caused the injury.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | This is the main thing. Insurers know that the home owners
             | are not going to file claims for their own family members.
             | It is the ambulance chasing lawyers that target the
             | insurance when guests are injured on your property. There
             | have been claims against poorly maintained walkways when
             | the ice is not removed when someone slips on your property.
             | Much like how retail stores all now have Wet Floor signs
             | from all the people getting "injured".
        
               | nick7376182 wrote:
               | Family members are often excluded from the coverages. I
               | know they are excluded from medpay, for example.
        
           | op00to wrote:
           | Yes. Growing up I saw my friend's foot pointed the wrong
           | direction after a "double bounce" caught his foot in the gap
           | between the trampoline surface and the supports. We were
           | careful kids.
        
             | syndicatedjelly wrote:
             | Idk how any of us survived the 90s with trampolines in
             | constant use! We would jump off them into pools, jump onto
             | them from the roof, double bounce each other half a dozen
             | feet in the air. I even mastered the "art" of jumping off
             | of it and landing on the ground (from 6 feet up), rolling
             | and popping back up.
        
               | op00to wrote:
               | A few of us didn't, I guess. I don't think they're
               | dangerous to ban, but I would never own one for my kids.
               | Sorry, kids!
        
               | t0mas88 wrote:
               | We also sat in the luggage area of a station wagon with 5
               | kids on the way to the swimming pool... That would
               | probably get the driver arrested if you did it today.
        
               | giantrobot wrote:
               | Neat. Survivorship bias.
        
           | roywiggins wrote:
           | Trampolines break a lot of bones.
           | 
           | https://www.mayoclinic.org/medical-
           | professionals/pediatrics/...
        
           | gosub100 wrote:
           | N=1 but there was a news story from a few years ago where a
           | teen severed his spinal cord on one from landing on his head
           | after a flip. I'm sure most of the claims are from simple
           | orthopedic injuries with $5-$25k amounts but it only takes
           | one paralysis claim to wipe out your risk model.
        
         | newprint wrote:
         | Hello ! I writes software that deals with Home insurances. 1.
         | Staggering number of people are getting seriously hurt on
         | trampolines each year, so other people can sue you (=>
         | insurance company) for injuries. It is on your property (((. 2.
         | Same thing with pets and "vicious" dogs breeds on your
         | property.
        
         | bastawhiz wrote:
         | In my life, I've gotten three home insurance quotes, and every
         | single one has asked about trampolines. And I do know at least
         | two people who have been seriously injured on trampolines, so I
         | can't blame them: they'd be liable for accidents.
        
         | sys_64738 wrote:
         | Homeowner insurance isn't just about the liability of the
         | damage to your home from weather elements. A major part of it
         | is liability you have to others who may have medical or other
         | damage associated with your property. E.g. tripping over a
         | paving stone, tree on your land falling on a neighbor's
         | structures, dog attacks by your dog, etc.
        
         | sgerenser wrote:
         | Last insurance quote I got asked about trampolines, playground
         | structures, dog breed, known risks like aluminum wiring or
         | polybutylene piping, whether all doors had deadbolts, distance
         | from nearest fire hydrant, and probably a dozen other things
         | like this.
        
       | sircastor wrote:
       | I'm going to assume that nobody's insurance premiums or
       | deductibles are going down from this data. No analysis is making
       | the insurer say "Oh, that roof is in much better condition
       | despite its age."
       | 
       | Insurance feels like the biggest scam in the history of the
       | world. You are legally obligated to pay us for nothing, most of
       | the time.
        
         | mb7733 wrote:
         | This doesn't make sense. If an insurance company wanted to
         | charge higher premiums, they would just do so. They wouldn't
         | need to spy on customers.
         | 
         | The point of them trying to quantify risk as accurately as
         | possible is to be able to extract profit while also offering
         | competitive rates.
         | 
         | It's the same as with any other company. They try and operate
         | as efficiently as possible (ie. reduce costs) to try and make
         | more profit, while competing on price.
        
           | currymj wrote:
           | from reading this article, it seems like there may be some
           | odd short-term pressures, or incentives internal to the
           | companies, that mean policies are getting cancelled based on
           | clearly inaccurate information.
        
           | VHRanger wrote:
           | Ah, classic mistake here.
           | 
           | If bargaining power is asymmetric between the insurer and the
           | buyer, then the extra information is used for additional
           | price discrimination (eg. Its better for you if the picture
           | is never taken regardless who you are).
           | 
           | So the question is: does the insurer or the insured have the
           | bargaining power here? Competition helps, but is only one
           | part of it.
           | 
           | Seeing that insurers seem very profitable in the US, a decent
           | proxy for bargaining power, I'd argue this is a bad thing for
           | the consumer.
        
             | bvan wrote:
             | If insurance was very profitable 'in the US', top-tier
             | insurers would not be leaving states like Florida and
             | California. There is a reason why they decide to no longer
             | cover wildfire losses or hurricane losses. In the case of
             | Florida, rampant fraud has turned the market into a basket-
             | case.
        
           | tfehring wrote:
           | > * If an insurance company wanted to charge higher premiums,
           | they would just do so.*
           | 
           | That's not an option in many cases. The first homeowner
           | featured in the article is in rural Northern California. CA's
           | insurance regulator has been extremely restrictive about
           | letting insurers raise rates, especially in that area, so her
           | insurance premium was probably a fraction of the expected
           | cost of insurance claims.
        
           | lokar wrote:
           | My insurance company sent an inspector to check the house. As
           | a result he adjusted some details of the policy that reduced
           | the rate slightly.
        
         | ozr wrote:
         | Insurance carriers have an incentive to compete on price like
         | any other business. There are plenty of options. The margins
         | are generally pretty small, and there is a lot of regulation
         | around what portion of payments _must_ be used for claims.
         | 
         | There's a few obvious exceptions, but plenty of insurance isn't
         | required.
        
           | sneed_chucker wrote:
           | They might have an incentive to compete, but I think they
           | also have an incentive to collude. Last time I shopped around
           | for insurance it seemed like the latter was taking place.
           | 
           | You're required to get homeowner's insurance if you have a
           | mortgage, and you're required to have car insurance if you
           | want to drive a car on public roads.
           | 
           | So the majority of Americans are forced to purchase at least
           | one of these in order to live their normal lives, which makes
           | demand inelastic.
        
             | lokar wrote:
             | For the car, you only need liability, and you can generally
             | post a bond instead.
        
             | overstay8930 wrote:
             | Collusion is nearly impossible in commodity insurance (i.e.
             | policies you can buy on a website), it's just way too easy
             | to detect and whistleblowers know they can make a fortune
             | by reporting it.
             | 
             | It's mostly your own governments fault if you can't find a
             | cheap policy, there are millions of people who will
             | probably never have to file an insurance claim in their
             | life making up for government decisions to insure people
             | who wouldn't normally be able to be insured because of poor
             | decision making skills.
        
             | ozr wrote:
             | You aren't required to purchase a home or drive a car. If
             | you chose to, as most Americans do, then yes: the demand is
             | inelastic.
             | 
             | But that doesn't imply what you're saying unless the
             | supplier has monopoly power, which they, by law, do not.
        
         | overstay8930 wrote:
         | > No analysis is making the insurer say "Oh, that roof is in
         | much better condition despite its age."
         | 
         | That's exactly what they do. There are people getting paid
         | millions of dollars to create software that does this.
         | 
         | Do you know how much money an insurance company can print if
         | they can undercut the competition by selling a bunch of
         | policies to people who won't file a claim?
         | 
         | People pick insurance based on price, and if someone is selling
         | you a cheaper policy because they know your roof is better,
         | you're going to buy it from them.
         | 
         | They win because you'll pay a premium without filing a claim,
         | and you win because you can have a cheaper policy. That's how
         | it works in the real world.
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | You're not legally obligated to pay for homeowners insurance.
        
           | hilux wrote:
           | It is probably required if you have a mortgage.
           | 
           | And of course it's a practical requirement for anyone whose
           | net worth is primarily in their home.
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | That's not a legal requirement, that's people with money
             | being unwilling to give it to you if you're reckless enough
             | not to insure your collateral.
        
         | ska wrote:
         | > I'm going to assume that nobody's insurance premiums or
         | deductibles are going down
         | 
         | That's exactly backwards. If you have better information than a
         | competitor, you have an effective strategy to steal their
         | lower-risk customers and still make a ton of money.
         | 
         | This absolutely will happen. And the rates for the higher-risk
         | customers they are left with will absolutely go up.
        
         | woopsn wrote:
         | The insurance scam is, classically, someone getting a policy on
         | an asset they know is worthless, going to catch fire, suddenly
         | die, etc. -- and you do pay higher rates as a result.
        
       | landedgentry wrote:
       | I'm less concerned about the spying and more concerned about
       | insurance companies arbitrarily non-renewing policies with no
       | recourse for the consumer. Insurance is heavily regulated for
       | good reason, and insurance should be a source of stability
       | instead of anxiety.
        
         | dmoy wrote:
         | Do you live in CA? In recent years that's the majority of
         | arbitrary cancellations I've heard about - companies pulling
         | entirely out of CA.
        
           | bluejekyll wrote:
           | Similar reports are coming out of Florida. Generally, it
           | seems the industry is pulling away from higher risk to
           | climate change issues from larger storms or fire risk.
        
             | dmoy wrote:
             | Yea I think that is exactly correct
        
             | tfehring wrote:
             | There's a saying in the insurance industry, there's no such
             | thing as a bad risk, only insufficient premium. Natural
             | catastrophe risk is definitely increasing, but the
             | insurance industry can handle that. The fundamental issue
             | is that regulators in many states (including CA and FL)
             | won't let insurers charge enough to compensate for that
             | risk.
        
             | rufus_foreman wrote:
             | That's not the issue in Florida. The issue in Florida is
             | that "although Florida only accounts for 9 percent of the
             | country's home insurance claims, it is home to 79 percent
             | of the country's home insurance lawsuits".
             | 
             | That's from https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-
             | insurance/flor..., which explains how the roofing scams
             | work in that state. The legislature is working on it.
        
               | howard941 wrote:
               | The legislature already worked on it. It had its way with
               | it, totally. Despite the "work" that was done rates have
               | skyrocketed. We're so deregulated there's no room for any
               | additional work that doesn't break down the front door
               | and walk out with stuff
               | 
               | What's actually happening in Florida is the insurance
               | companies are Janus entities. One part is an insurance
               | company that's subject to rate regulation and the other
               | part is a consulting firm that gets paid large sums of
               | money from the regulated company and that's where all the
               | profits live.
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | I 100% agree with landedgentry. I don't really have any
           | problem with insurers using drone photos - anyone can take
           | drone photos of anyone else's property - and I'm not really a
           | fan of the article calling it "spying" to imply some special
           | kind of nefarious behavior.
           | 
           | But I _do_ think the total bullshit is that companies are
           | just using it to come up with essentially fake reasons to
           | drop customers:
           | 
           | > Cindy Picos was dropped by her home insurer last month. The
           | reason: aerial photos of her roof, which her insurer refused
           | to let her see. ... Her insurer said its images showed her
           | roof had "lived its life expectancy." Picos paid for an
           | independent inspection that found the roof had another 10
           | years of life. Her insurer declined to reconsider its
           | decision.
           | 
           | I also don't have a problem if an insurer decides to leave a
           | state entirely - that decision is essentially saying the
           | state has made it impossible for them to adequately price
           | risk, and that's something the state should fix if so
           | desired.
           | 
           | But these BS cancellation reasons seem like a case of
           | insurers wanting to have their cake and eat it too. I'm not
           | very familiar with state-by-state insurance law, but I'm
           | assuming they have to come up with _some_ reason to drop a
           | homeowner that already has a policy, so this looks like they
           | 're trying to find BS reasons to just drop potentially less
           | profitable parts of their portfolio.
        
             | halfcat wrote:
             | Why aren't insurance companies required to operate like
             | market makers in the equities markets, where they're free
             | to choose the price they're offering, but must offer a
             | price in the market they're in?
             | 
             | If the roof needs replacing (in the insurance company's
             | view) then charge whatever the rate is that covers that and
             | still makes them a profit. Don't just deny coverage.
        
               | overstay8930 wrote:
               | They will just charge the customer the price of a new
               | roof, there's no point in what you're asking for.
        
               | rybosworld wrote:
               | If you ever look at the options chain on a thinly traded
               | equity, you'll notice small volume and very large bid/ask
               | spreads. Sometimes the bid/ask spread is so large that it
               | looks like a computer glitch.
               | 
               | The primary insurance market is even _more_ illiquid than
               | thinly traded options.
        
             | overstay8930 wrote:
             | Independent inspectors almost always say what whoever is
             | paying them wants to hear (see: Florida). 10 years left on
             | a roof usually means the next large wind storm will take it
             | out, they're not paid to look for that.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | But independent inspectors usually generate a report that
               | explains at least some of their rationale. Even if it is
               | biased, it can at least be scrutinized.
               | 
               | That is in sharp contrast to the insurance company that
               | is supposedly making their determination based on drone
               | photos _that they won 't even let their clients see_.
        
               | overstay8930 wrote:
               | If multiple insurance companies say you need a new roof,
               | you need a new roof. Full stop. There's no justification
               | necessary.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | Quite literally, what are you talking about? There were
               | no "multiple insurance companies", there was a single
               | insurance company that dropped the policy holder quoted
               | in the article.
               | 
               | Besides, the article quotes from insurance company
               | _agents_ that directly refutes what you are saying:
               | "Brink, who worked for Farmers in Michigan, said some
               | customers were dropped based on aerial images that were
               | two or three years old. One person wasn't renewed because
               | of a roof, despite its being brand new."
               | 
               | Full stop. (I just like how people think that adding
               | "full stop" to their comments somehow makes their
               | position unassailable or something...)
        
         | otteromkram wrote:
         | But, profits.
         | 
         | How else are execs going to pay for that third vacation home?
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Does that third vacation home get spied on from the sky as
           | well?
        
             | reactordev wrote:
             | I'm sure it does but he knows Bob and Bob can just flip a
             | bit in a database to make it "compliant".
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | In some states it's the heavy regulation which is causing
         | policy non-renewals. When governments fix prices below the
         | market rate that inevitably leads to shortages.
         | 
         | It's a stressful situation for many property owners. They may
         | not realize the impact that recent high inflation has had on
         | repair costs, especially when prices tend to spike up higher
         | after major disasters.
        
         | upofadown wrote:
         | This sort of opportunity to find a rationale for cancelling an
         | individual insurance policy will inevitably by used for evil.
         | See: Insurance Redlining.
        
           | reactordev wrote:
           | Or you thought cancelling cable was hard now...
        
         | danielmarkbruce wrote:
         | No one, including companies, should not be forced into
         | contracts they don't want to enter into.
         | 
         | In practice, you are going to find they are never arbitrarily
         | doing it. They are doing it because the price no longer covers
         | the cost of providing the insurance. Just like when I decide
         | the price of X isn't worth it anymore, I stop doing the
         | transaction. The reasonable response would be to increase the
         | price, but in some situations it's not possible due to
         | regulation.
        
           | j45 wrote:
           | Except when those companies have lobbied to create laws to
           | make the use of their industry mandatory.
        
             | Analemma_ wrote:
             | I could be wrong, but I don't think there are any states
             | where you are required by law to have home insurance. The
             | issue is that banks won't underwrite a mortgage for an
             | uninsured house, because without insurance it's a
             | completely unsecured asset whose value would go to zero at
             | any time. (And if a bank won't write a new mortgage for it,
             | the value drops dramatically even if it's already paid off,
             | because now the potential market is limited to cash-only
             | buyers for a risky asset)
             | 
             | You're free to go without insurance on a house that you
             | own, but so long as the bank owns it, they're going to make
             | insurance mandatory, and that has nothing to do with
             | lobbying.
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | You are not wrong at all.
               | 
               | Home insurance isn't mandatory, but refinancing your
               | mortgage is impossibile without one.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > whose value would go to zero at any time
               | 
               | No, it wouldn't. It would go down to the value of the
               | land (where a construction is permitted).
               | 
               | Nowadays, that's often more than 90% of the price.
        
               | robocat wrote:
               | > value of the land
               | 
               | Only very approximately - it depends on contextual
               | situation.
               | 
               | We had a ton of uninsurable "as-is" houses after the
               | Christchurch Earthquake. Prices for those houses dropped
               | massively because without a mortgage you only get cash
               | bidders so demand was relatively low compared with
               | supply. The price someone is willing to pay for an as-is
               | property depends on many factors, and it can easily be
               | below land valuation.
               | 
               | Firstly desperate or naive sellers would accept well
               | below the land value. You assume that that there are
               | enough buyers to compete. There were not enough buyers
               | shortly after the quake because not enough had cash so
               | there were very cheap properties. Plus you were buying
               | risk too - you simply couldn't price correctly because
               | there were too many unknowns - when _whole_ suburbs are
               | uninhabitable a new construction is irrelevant. The city
               | population dropped significantly.
               | 
               | You could offer below land value on some properties
               | because you are also purchasing a liability e.g. the
               | council required some houses to be demolished & removed
               | (demolition costs were tens of thousands - and demo
               | companies were busy as fuck).
               | 
               | You might pay a lot more than land value:
               | 
               | * Some places could still be rented (uninsurable is not
               | uninhabitable) so potential income mattered.
               | 
               | * Many places just needed work done - sometimes not much
               | - but often a new foundation e.g. lift house and put in
               | new foundation. New foundations had to be compliant with
               | earthquake strengthening rules so usually very very
               | expensive. The as-is homes were often sold by the
               | insurance companies because they were uneconomic to fix.
               | 
               | I advise everyone to be very careful buying property in
               | suburbs or cities where all houses have common/correlated
               | risks of an event - floods - fire - etcetera. Insurance
               | premiums will rise until it is unaffordable - then all
               | houses will not maintain value. Disclosure: I do live in
               | a flood prone suburb but I can afford to self-insure and
               | most people cannot do that.
               | 
               | Even worse: insurance did not cover the financial losses
               | for many people in the Christchurch Earthquake.
               | Especially small businesses. Then again - many other
               | people ended up with huge payouts and were financially
               | much better off. However even then money is usually a
               | poor substitute for emotional costs.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | Car insurance isn't mandatory; proof of financial
             | responsibility is. In California, you can get a compliant
             | insurance policy, deposit $35k with the DMV, setup a
             | compliant $35k bond, or a self-insurance certificate which
             | requires a larger deposit and is really for commercial
             | motor vehicle carriers. I don't think it's unreasonable to
             | require means to pay for damages when operating a motor
             | vehicle; it doesn't take much to cause damages well in
             | excess of California's deposit amount; washington state
             | requires $60k.
             | 
             | For home insurance, usually it's a mortgage requirement,
             | which is not by law. In condominiums, the community may
             | require it of individual owners, and then it's not really
             | law either.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Side note here on how ludicrous it is that you can
               | substitute a $35,000 bond for a real insurance policy,
               | given the likelihood that any driver is going to cause
               | losses far in excess of $35,000.
        
               | creato wrote:
               | The 35k bond doesn't preclude getting sued for an
               | unbounded amount. Presumably the idea is that a 35k bond
               | demonstrates you have more available in case of a
               | judgment.
               | 
               | That said, that seems like a risky idea in a world full
               | of LLCs, trusts, etc.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | No. it demonstrates exactly the same minimum ability to
               | pay as the alternative minimum deposit or insurance
               | coverage, which are also $35k.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Not having any insurance coverage at all doesn't preclude
               | you from getting sued for an unbounded amount.
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | Minimum insurance in California only covers the same
               | $35,000. $15,000 for injuries to one person, $30,000 for
               | injuries to multiple people, and $5,000 for property
               | damage.
               | 
               | It's completely insufficient, but it's not nothing. A
               | reasonable person would carry much more insurance.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | $35,000 is also the minimum liability coverage ($30,000
               | for death or injury to multiple people plus $5,000 for
               | property damage.)
               | 
               | In either the bond, deposit, or liability insurance
               | scenario, the responsible party remains on the hook for
               | whatever is not covered in advance.
        
               | j45 wrote:
               | Fair, but there are lots of places, like Canada which
               | require some types of insurance by law.
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | I'm unfamiliar with Canadian law, can you provide an
               | example jurisdiction and required coverage?
        
               | cldellow wrote:
               | In Ontario, the Compulsory Automobile Insurance Act [1]
               | requires that all owners/lessees of vehicles take out
               | insurance policies. The Insurance Act [2] sets out that
               | the minimum amount should be $200,000.
               | 
               | $200,000 is a much better floor than, for example, Ohio's
               | $25,000. An Ohioan friend was injured by a motorist who
               | had the minimum coverage. Her care cost more than that.
               | The motorist who caused the injuries didn't have a lot of
               | assets and she was unable to recover the excess from the
               | motorist.
               | 
               | Still, there are some perhaps unintended downsides.
               | Canadian rental car companies, as the owners of the
               | vehicles, are obliged to provide $200,000 insurance as
               | part of every contract. As a result, it seems there's not
               | much market for them to sell excess liability insurance,
               | and none do that I'm aware of. I, as someone who has
               | plenty of assets to lose if I injured someone, would
               | happily buy a higher liability insurance. Doubly so when
               | I rent a car to travel to the US, since the terms of the
               | contract are often "the rental car company will provide
               | the minimum insurance required in the jurisdiction where
               | the claim is incurred".
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/90c25 [2]:
               | https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/90i08
        
               | halostatue wrote:
               | https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ontario+minimum+automobile+insu
               | ran...
               | 
               | https://www.ontario.ca/document/official-mto-drivers-
               | handboo...
               | 
               | https://www.ibc.ca/insurance-basics/auto/types-of-auto-
               | cover...
               | 
               | For the US:
               | 
               | https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/minimum-
               | require...
        
               | j45 wrote:
               | The links below beat me to it.
               | 
               | Auto insurance is mandatory, and it can be government
               | run, or private.
               | 
               | Other areas of insurance can be indirectly required, say
               | one side of renting, etc. Effectively lenders can set the
               | conditions they desire.
        
         | VHRanger wrote:
         | Thats exactly the problem with insurance.
         | 
         | If I have any sort of risk mitigation (file backup, fire
         | alarms, spare tire, a generator, whatever) I can test that it
         | works periodically. So I know I'm actually safe for the event.
         | 
         | For insurance, you can't know what bullshit they'll come up
         | with to deny a claim when the time comes for it.
         | 
         | You're left with having paid for the insurance all that time
         | for nothing! Much better to have put that money in a piggy bank
         | instead.
        
           | ametrau wrote:
           | Well technically you were paying for their obligation to pay
           | for you. Which is a real thing of value.
        
           | bvan wrote:
           | You assume it's bullshit. Difference.
        
           | treflop wrote:
           | I've known plenty of people who had legitimate accidents not
           | of their own fault where insurance made them more than whole,
           | and they would have not been able to afford the replacement
           | if they had simply been saving for the same amount of time.
           | 
           | If you actually feel like you could recoup of the cost of
           | paying for insurance by instead keeping the money in a piggy
           | bank, you are buying too much insurance. There's a sweet spot
           | for insurance and overpaying for too little insurance is a
           | you-problem.
        
         | brogrammernot wrote:
         | Alright, I spent years working and building 0-1 insurance
         | products. Let me peel back some stuff that's been happening
         | behind the scenes.
         | 
         | Some officials are elected and some are appointed which all
         | depends on the state. Appointed officials are usually more
         | reasonable and elected are not because higher rates = mad
         | voters = re-election chances lower.
         | 
         | For a long time, insurers have struggled to get sufficient rate
         | changes approved. A literal quote for you during Covid was,
         | "Son, I'm looking out my window at downtown {city} and I don't
         | see many cars on the road. We won't approve the rate
         | increases."
         | 
         | This was with actual data of losses increasing due to supply
         | chain disruption of auto parts, labor increases and many more
         | things.
         | 
         | We basically had to write policies and hope for the best
         | despite knowing the data / trend lines forecasting major
         | losses.
         | 
         | Fast-forward and what do you have - major losses by all of
         | these companies - and so these companies have two choices: -
         | Try to get rate approvals - Exit the market or line of
         | insurance
         | 
         | For California, the latter is the better option because at
         | least for auto you cannot use credit, telematics or other very
         | predictive attributes to price the risk. This results in
         | essentially pooled risk which in aggregate drives up rates for
         | all. Simply put, California officials did this to themselves.
         | 
         | For other states, the first option works but the rate increases
         | are now significantly higher because it was near impossible to
         | get any adequate rate increases last few years.
         | 
         | So, the bill has come due and it sucks for everyone as it's
         | either a) higher prices or b) can't get insurance (Florida
         | folks for certain types) or c) limited suppliers not being able
         | to get reinsurance to share the risk results in higher rates
         | that customers can't afford so they go without.
        
           | jjtheblunt wrote:
           | I'm not seeing you motivate or justify the rate increases.
        
             | lokar wrote:
             | The insurance companies are loosing money. Rates have to go
             | up.
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | And not just a bit. Insurances have lost money for most
               | of the last 5/6 years.
        
               | bagels wrote:
               | They are not all losing money.
        
               | stalfosknight wrote:
               | And yet there's seems to always been enough money for
               | stock buybacks and disgustingly excessive executive
               | compensation.
        
               | jjtheblunt wrote:
               | In insurance companies?
        
               | stalfosknight wrote:
               | In most publicly traded for-profit organizations.
        
               | jjtheblunt wrote:
               | i think "most" isn't necessarily right since selection
               | bias applies : ones not making money get delisted from
               | public trading, so don't pull down an average, skewing
               | it.
               | 
               | another couple quirks: stock buybacks generally inflate
               | the value of remaining shares (not bought back) for the
               | public traded company shareholders...what they hoped for
               | when acquiring shares. some companies increase dividends
               | to return value, rather than fiddle with share prices.
               | 
               | but, yeah, agreed to your general observation.
        
             | twoodfin wrote:
             | Why should any seller have to justify their prices? Just
             | don't buy their policy, buy someone else's.
        
               | cool_dude85 wrote:
               | Insurance in general is more heavily regulated than this.
               | There are a few reasons: because society doesn't want
               | these companies racing to the bottom on price and leaving
               | their customers high and dry when the catastrophe does
               | hit, because society finds insurance pricing based on
               | certain personal aspects, such as race, odious, and
               | because the government mandates some types of coverage
               | and they don't want to let insurers rinse customers that
               | are forced to buy their product.
               | 
               | For all these reasons, insurers typically must justify
               | rate increases.
        
               | twoodfin wrote:
               | While it's certainly accurate insurance is a regulated
               | industry, nothing you listed explains why it's a _good
               | idea_ to allow government to set or approve rates vs.
               | ameliorating those social concerns through other means.
        
               | 20after4 wrote:
               | Because insurance isn't optional. If the law demands
               | insurance then the law must assure equal access to the
               | legally mandated insurance.
        
             | margalabargala wrote:
             | What I saw was "supply chain got more expensive so $/claim
             | went up and is outpacing premiums".
        
               | HeatrayEnjoyer wrote:
               | Many industries are regulated and have to provide good
               | faith justifications for price increases. The burden of
               | proof is on them, not the service recipient.
        
               | brogrammernot wrote:
               | I'm not sure you read my post then as it explains I've
               | seen first-hand actual loss data because of supply chain
               | & other costs leading to an unprofitable offering being
               | denied by the state without any valid rationale other
               | than "he didn't see any cars outside his window".
               | 
               | The point is that regulators have not been allowing rate
               | increases with good faith justifications for years and
               | now that they see their actions have caused companies to
               | pull out they're pointing the finger at the companies
               | when it's their poor judgment for years coming to
               | fruition.
        
             | rufus_foreman wrote:
             | I'm seeing it: "This was with actual data of losses
             | increasing due to supply chain disruption of auto parts,
             | labor increases and many more things."
        
             | Ekaros wrote:
             | Value of claims going up while number might be slightly
             | down... Means that outgoing money that is returned to
             | buyers has increased. They are "winning". But house cannot
             | keep losing or they go bankrupt.
        
           | myself248 wrote:
           | I thought risk pooling was the point?
        
             | brogrammernot wrote:
             | It is through reinsurance mechanisms and the way you build
             | the portfolio.
             | 
             | If you can't use predictive attributes, many not allowed in
             | California, you're not going to get reinsurance interest
             | because you can't really balance the risk across different
             | risk types for drivers.
             | 
             | So the end result is the customer pays more, despite their
             | driving record being clean, because that's the only way to
             | manage through the risk.
        
             | ska wrote:
             | Risk pooling is fundamental to insurance, but not all pools
             | are the same.
             | 
             | The observation is that if you aren't able to discriminate
             | at all or subdivide the pools, the only response is to up
             | the average rate to cover the aggregate risk as best you
             | can estimate it. This gets tricky if your ability to change
             | rates is constrained, also.
             | 
             | These things are always in fundamental tension, and also in
             | tension with privacy. It's not an easy problem.
        
               | brogrammernot wrote:
               | Yup, exactly.
               | 
               | Even worse for the consumer is that insurance rules say
               | you have to "offer" insurance in the state to get your
               | license.
               | 
               | Well, you don't want to drop your license but really
               | don't want to have a bunch of policies. What do you do?
               | 
               | You make it impossibly difficult to get insurance. I'm
               | not going to name names but a lot of insurance companies
               | in California are doing this.
               | 
               | No online applications, have to call in, have to fax in
               | or mail paperwork required and so on...
        
               | hilux wrote:
               | Yup - I have experienced this trying to buy health
               | insurance (pre-Obamacare) in California.
               | 
               | I was very confused until I realized they were doing
               | exactly what you said.
        
               | michael1999 wrote:
               | That sounds like informal underwriting. If you are
               | forbidden by law from better underwriting, then selecting
               | by conscientiousness is a sensible proxy.
        
               | ls612 wrote:
               | In extreme cases forcing too much pooling can cause
               | market failure. The intuition is that the least risky
               | customers decline to purchase (much) insurance, making
               | the average risk higher, increasing prices, making more
               | people decline insurance, in a vicious cycle. It's
               | fundamentally similar to Akerlof's market for lemons.
        
               | brogrammernot wrote:
               | This is always a fun topic for me.
               | 
               | If everybody is sharing all the risk that's the same
               | thing (obviously I'm being simplistic) as them
               | underwriting the risk themselves.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | They're opposites though?
               | 
               | Someone underwriting their own risk might as well not
               | have actual insurance, as they're just on the hook for
               | actual damages correct?
               | 
               | So if they get sued for $1M, then they are on the hook
               | for $1M (as an individual).
               | 
               | If everyone is sharing the risk, then everyone is on the
               | hook for $1M/number of people.
               | 
               | So the individual that gets sued for $1M in a large
               | state, might only be on the hook for a couple cents for
               | their own lawsuit. Though they'd also be in the hook to
               | the same degree for some other asshole getting sued.
               | 
               | Which is why insurance creates moral hazard (for things
               | someone can control), and reduces catastrophic damage to
               | individuals (for things someone cannot control).
        
             | baronswindle wrote:
             | It is...kind of. But we're talking about severely limiting
             | the ability of insurers to distinguish high risk parties
             | from low risk parties and price accordingly. When the
             | insured parties have limited agency over the risk they
             | present -- as with, e.g., health insurance for congenital
             | diseases -- this kind of regulation can make sense. But
             | when insured parties can control the risk, such regulation
             | usually makes insurance markets much less efficient.
             | Essentially, it takes away the incentive for insured
             | parties to avoid risky behaviors, creating moral hazard.
             | This is a well-understood mechanism for market failures.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | We already have this problem with car insurance in
               | California. In the 1980s, at the tail end of a long
               | series of stupid initiative ballot measures, Californians
               | wrote down that there are only 2 strata of risk: good
               | drivers, and everyone else. "Good Driver" is defined as a
               | person who has had a license for 3 years without killing
               | or injuring anyone. Because of this, California is the
               | only American state where the law requires that a middle-
               | aged person who drives a base model Honda Fit, and a
               | 19-year-old with a Dodge Hellcat who miraculously hasn't
               | killed anyone, yet, that we know of, both get the same
               | "discount". And consequently it is unlawful here to offer
               | those telematics systems that charge less to good drivers
               | and more to bad ones.
        
               | brogrammernot wrote:
               | Yup, I hated reviewing California based book of business.
               | 
               | Everyone is upset their rate is going up but the issue is
               | lack of ability to use predictive underwriting because of
               | what you said and more.
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | You want to risk pool a specific cohort of people. You want
             | the pool to be as large as possible without masking clear
             | adverse indicators. For instance, from an example
             | downthread: you probably don't want to pool people with
             | trampolines in with everybody else. Most people don't have
             | trampolines. To an insurer, the sole function of a
             | trampoline is to generate lawsuits. If you pool
             | trampoliners together with everybody else, you necessarily
             | raise everybody's rates to subsidize trampoline lawsuits.
             | Better to factor the trampolines out and price them
             | directly.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | > I thought risk pooling was the point?
             | 
             | The point is pooling _unpredictable_ risk. You don 't know
             | ahead of time if your house is going to flood. You do know
             | ahead of time if your house is on a flood plane. Therefore,
             | people with houses on a flood plane pay more for flood
             | insurance.
             | 
             | The alternative is that low risk customers can't get
             | insurance because they'd have to pay the same as high risk
             | customers and that isn't worth it. Additionally, then
             | people build tons of houses in extremely high risk areas
             | because they can buy insurance for the same price as
             | someone not doing something stupid, which is a moral
             | hazard. Existing regulations have already caused this to
             | happen in many cases.
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | > The point is pooling unpredictable risk.
               | 
               | This is important point about knowledge which I feel
               | leads towards _another_ kind of hazard: _Which party_ is
               | capable of predicting risk and how that information
               | asymmetry may be exploited.
               | 
               | We already spend a lot of time thinking about one
               | direction, where the insured hides a pre-existing
               | condition or their nefarious plan to commit arson, or
               | whatever.
               | 
               | But what about the other direction? What about when the
               | insurer has tools and relationships to determine
               | something but doesn't tell the insured?
               | 
               | That might either be because there's not enough
               | competitive pressure to make them lower the premium, or
               | perhaps they raised the premium to cover the higher risk
               | but refuse to disclose exactly what the risk is or how
               | they determined it.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | That is the problem solved by competition. If insurers
               | know that your risk is below average then they'll want
               | your business and therefore want to underbid other
               | insurers in order to get it. But so will the other
               | insurers, until your premium comes down to reflect your
               | risk. This works even if you don't know your own risk
               | because all you have to do is pick the most attractive
               | price.
               | 
               | Of course, if you don't have enough competition that
               | doesn't work, but then your problem is that you don't
               | have enough competition. Which, especially in insurance
               | markets, is generally caused by regulatory barriers.
        
               | zamfi wrote:
               | > is on a flood plane.
               | 
               | You mean like this one?
               | https://www.yahoo.com/news/united-airlines-flight-
               | diverted-t...
               | 
               | ...I'll see myself out.
        
           | trogdor wrote:
           | Why are insurance rates regulated by the government?
           | 
           | I understand that the state has a strong interest in ensuring
           | that insurance companies are adequately capitalized, but I
           | don't understand the state interest in directly regulating
           | premium prices. (Or is that not what you are referring to?)
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | For the same reason credit card interest rates are
             | regulated: there's an asymmetry in bargaining power.
             | 
             | Car prices are not regulated because there are plenty of
             | options for the consumer.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | If there is such an asymmetry in bargaining power then
               | why do most people pay less than the statutory maximum?
               | If there are multiple insurance companies, how is it not
               | the consumer who has the bargaining power, since they can
               | just take the lowest price?
               | 
               | The actual reason is that some consumers are extremely
               | high risk, the market rate for those consumers is
               | correspondingly extreme, and then they whine to
               | legislators that they're getting ripped off when in fact
               | the rate reflects the risk. And then the company either
               | refuses their business if they're allowed to or raises
               | rates on everybody else to compensate if they're not.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Eh, or without regulation when people switch risk
               | categories due to a loss they get completely screwed
               | because no company will insure them anymore. At which
               | point, there is strong incentive to only claim the most
               | outrageously bad losses, and for people to only actually
               | get insurance if they have real reason to suspect a loss
               | that is non obvious to others.
               | 
               | It's a market type that is fundamentally messy and prone
               | to abusive behavior by both sides.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | > Eh, or without regulation when people switch risk
               | categories due to a loss they get completely screwed
               | because no company will insure them anymore.
               | 
               | This only happens when regulations cap premiums, because
               | otherwise there is always a rate at which selling
               | insurance is profitable. Even if you have a 50% risk of a
               | claim (extremely high), you'd still be able to buy
               | $100,000 in insurance for a little over $50,000. Of
               | course, you may not be able to afford this, but then
               | maybe if your risk is that high you should just refrain
               | from engaging in that activity eh?
               | 
               | > At which point, there is strong incentive to only claim
               | the most outrageously bad losses
               | 
               | That's what insurance is _for_. If you have a 20% chance
               | of losing $100 every year, you don 't need to pay
               | $21/year for an insurance policy, you just lose $100 once
               | every five years.
               | 
               | > and for people to only actually get insurance if they
               | have real reason to suspect a loss that is non obvious to
               | others.
               | 
               | The reason to get insurance is if there is a low
               | probability high cost risk, like a house fire. You don't
               | expect it to happen, but it could, and you'd rather pay
               | $1000/year, have it and not need it, than lose the value
               | of your house in the event of a random accident.
        
               | dan-robertson wrote:
               | I thought there were also requirements that insurance
               | rates are profitable (in expected value) to prevent some
               | loss-making customer acquisition strategies and to reduce
               | some long-term risks from insurers going bust. I'm not
               | very confident in this claim.
        
               | brogrammernot wrote:
               | Yes but less so on the rates themselves & rather do you
               | have enough cash to stay alive without going under.
               | 
               | They're obviously related but less regulatory focus on
               | rates, more on cost of business and that.
               | 
               | Edit: Basically you can run at a loss (most do) for a
               | limited period of time but have to show that you will be
               | liquid on the other side of the losses.
        
               | brewdad wrote:
               | More than that, you can choose to go without a credit
               | card. Insurance is mandatory for most people. Either the
               | law requires it or a lender requires it in order to
               | approve the loan.
               | 
               | Insurance rates are regulated for the same reason most
               | states regulate utility rates. You can't really opt out
               | and the markets where price regulations have been removed
               | have left most consumers worse off.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | That's not really true anymore. Try booking a hotel or a
               | flight without a cc.
        
             | neilv wrote:
             | Why is basic insurance for ordinary people a for-profit
             | business at all, rather than something the collective
             | (administered by the state) does to soften any misfortune
             | that hits any of its members?
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | Because state insurance programs have perverse
               | incentives. Insurance itself is a moral hazard. You buy
               | insurance and then do something risky you wouldn't
               | otherwise have done because if it goes wrong you're
               | insured. It's also an opportunity for outright fraud. If
               | the book value of your property is higher than its true
               | value, you carry insurance and then set a fire.
               | 
               | Private insurers have the incentive to price this in. If
               | they can predict you're going to be high risk, or uncover
               | evidence of arson, they can charge you higher rates or
               | refuse coverage. For state insurers the cost goes on the
               | taxpayer and if claims are refused for legitimate
               | reasons, the perpetrators go to the media and accuse the
               | state of bankrupting their family. This puts pressure on
               | elected officials to shift the burden of this fraud onto
               | the taxpayer, whereas private insurers would push back
               | because they have a direct financial incentive not to eat
               | the cost of fraud and mispriced risk.
        
               | Hendrikto wrote:
               | Because Americans hate that idea and call it socialism.
        
               | mopenstein wrote:
               | Very few people hate having insurance in case of
               | accidents but a lot of people hate having guns stuck in
               | their back and told to pay up for other people.
               | 
               | I pay a rate based on my risk factors which I actively
               | work to maintain as low as possible. I don't want to be
               | forced to pay for every reckless idiot in my country (of
               | which there are too many to count).
               | 
               | But I also hate non-voluntary anything, so I'm weird.
        
               | forgetfreeman wrote:
               | And without exception the folks fixated on the notion
               | they're paying the way for someone else fail to grasp, on
               | the most fundamental level, the notion of a public good.
               | There are days where I think it'd be amusing to suspend
               | federal and state law in the Dakotas just to see how long
               | it took before regional warlords took over.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | Those reckless idiots destroy your property so you're
               | paying for them anyway.
        
               | jdhzzz wrote:
               | Right on both counts
        
               | NeoTar wrote:
               | In some places and markets it is - I believe if you live
               | in British Columbia basic vehicle insurance is done
               | through the province.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurance_Corporation_of_Br
               | iti...
        
               | username332211 wrote:
               | If you do that, you must also regulate the sort of
               | vehicles ordinary people can buy and the sort of homes
               | they can own.
               | 
               | After all, we can't have the community suffer an
               | unsustainable loss because some guy earned too much money
               | and selfishly bought a Camaro.
               | 
               | So, obviously the collective should create a list of
               | cheap and economical cars ordinary people are allowed to
               | buy.
               | 
               | If that doesn't feel right to you, remember, the so
               | called "freedom of choice" is a bourgeois value.
               | Transcend it.
        
               | zen928 wrote:
               | > you must also regulate the sort of vehicles ordinary
               | people can buy and the sort of homes they can own.
               | 
               | Yep, we already do that. Vehicles and houses have to
               | conform to a set of standards that provide security and
               | safety measures for others, e.g. "Street legal" car
               | restrictions, fire hazard safety requirements and
               | building permit regulations and state codes that adhere
               | to city guidelines, etc. Might need to include a few more
               | talking points from the political pundit you're
               | regurgitating views from for a better argument.
        
               | cortesoft wrote:
               | Even if the government ran the insurance program, you
               | wouldn't be forced to charge everyone the same amount for
               | their insurance. The Camaro driver could pay more for
               | their coverage.
        
               | Kon-Peki wrote:
               | > Why is basic insurance for ordinary people a for-profit
               | business at all, rather than something the collective...
               | 
               | There are mutual insurance companies [1], including the
               | largest insurance company in the US (State Farm). At the
               | end of every year, if the amount of money left over
               | exceeds the formula they have set, every policyholder
               | gets a refund.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_insurance
        
               | tomp wrote:
               | Mathematically, if you sell insurance at break even,
               | you're guaranteed to go bankrupt - on an infinite time
               | scale, the "spike" of a random walk martingale (this last
               | word means, it doesn't make a profit) will exceed every
               | level, i.e. it will wipe out any amount of collateral /
               | capital / equity the company might have.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_the_iterated_logarit
               | hm
        
               | cortesoft wrote:
               | This is why you have re-insurance
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinsurance
               | 
               | If the final insurer is the government, you don't have
               | the risk of ruin because you have control of the money
               | printer.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | If money printer goes brr... you're losing, not winning.
        
               | nichohel wrote:
               | Also, fraud.
        
             | username332211 wrote:
             | There are votes in it.
             | 
             | Or, to be precise, the benefits are concrete go to precise
             | groups of people, the costs are abstract and diffuse. Same
             | thing as protective tariffs.
        
               | _tom_ wrote:
               | Votes are the sort term answer. People are losing their
               | houses in Florida. Mortgages require insurance, and if
               | you insurance goes up thousand a year, and hundreds a
               | month, some people can't afford it, and lose their
               | houses.
               | 
               | Longer term, this is bad for a society in general, and
               | politicians do know this.
               | 
               | There are all sorts of potential societal consequences to
               | people losing homes that cost the society (us!) money
               | (homelessness, vandalism, entire neighborhoods going the
               | way of Detroit suburbs, and much, much more). Society
               | doesn't want this to happen.
        
             | vundercind wrote:
             | Ten-to-one you can go back to when the regulation started
             | and find there was rampant, blatant abuse going on. That's
             | the usual story behind these kinds of things.
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | There is a saying that regulations are written in blood.
               | 
               | They may not have been well designed, or they may not
               | wear well. But most of the time they are put in place
               | because somebody got badly hurt, one way or another.
               | 
               | Industry could usually design itself better regulation.
               | But unless it finds a way to mutually enforce compliance,
               | the task will fall to government.
        
             | DSMan195276 wrote:
             | Every state requires you to hold some minimum level of car
             | insurance, mortgages require a level of homeowners
             | insurance, etc. The underlying problem is that it's a
             | significant barrier for people if they get priced out of
             | the market (even if it's for good reason). If you can't
             | afford car insurance or no insurers will offer it to you
             | then you legally cannot drive a car, and in the US that
             | becomes a problem that spirals into bigger problems.
             | 
             | I would say overall there's no good answer to this problem
             | that everybody would be happy with, just maybe one you
             | consider "less bad" than the other ones.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | While there's a lot I dislike about the Mass auto
               | insurance rules, the rules for "no insurance company will
               | voluntarily insure you" are pretty friendly to drivers
               | who are otherwise uninsurable.
               | 
               | https://www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-auto-
               | insuran...
        
               | wbl wrote:
               | If you are such a risk when driving no insurer will touch
               | you, I would like you off the road.
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | In practice what actually happens is that these people
               | will drive anyways and cause damage before being pulled
               | over, except now they have no insurance and it's a whole
               | mess.
               | 
               | It is also the theory behind universal healthcare
               | coverage, because people will have medical issues that
               | eventually end them in the ER regardless of coverage
               | status and someone has to get paid for services rendered.
               | And also insurers will literally take any excuse to deny
               | coverage if they can.
        
               | earthling8118 wrote:
               | I'd prefer that nearly all of us were off the road, but
               | in practice we've not built a world that allows such a
               | lifestyle.
        
             | brogrammernot wrote:
             | Premiums is what I'm referencing, yeah.
             | 
             | So, it's a complex thing but the state has a vested
             | interest in drivers being insured because of state /
             | federal funding for roads, infrastructure and all of that.
             | 
             | The original intent was to stop humans from being greedy
             | assholes and to provide a stick for when they messed up.
             | Without the states involvement, insurance would likely go
             | the way of used auto with "buy here pay here" lots which is
             | a net negative for the state & society as a whole.
             | 
             | They want to make sure that "fair" prices are set so that
             | there isn't an overly disproportionate amount of people who
             | need the insurance not having insurance. In reality, the
             | less risky drivers do for all intents and purposes help
             | off-set the cost of the more risky people but all of that
             | is hidden in the premium logic.
             | 
             | At the end of the day, what has happened though is the
             | state's regulatory group overstepping their bounds (in my
             | opinion) and ignoring good faith proposals with data
             | showing why rate increases are needed which leads to
             | situations we're in now.
             | 
             | Having been in that world (I left it) I can honestly say
             | there has to be some regulations or regulatory body because
             | a lot of these folks spend so much time looking at numbers
             | (actuarial science in general) they forget the fact there
             | are humans behind those numbers.
        
           | Vic-Bhatia wrote:
           | Hi, This is a very informative post. I am trying to learn
           | more about how the insurance industry works. Would you be
           | open to sharing any resources (websites, books etc) that
           | teach the 0 to 1 of insurance? Or can I DM you with a couple
           | of questions? Thanks!
        
             | brogrammernot wrote:
             | Yeah, sure shoot me a DM and when I'm back later at my
             | computer I have some.
             | 
             | I didn't deal much on commercial insurance btw, I have
             | _some_ awareness of that.
        
           | lm411 wrote:
           | Here in British Columbia, our provincially owned insurer
           | (ICBC) saved significant money because of fewer claims during
           | Covid. They even issued a rebate to most drivers. Though they
           | also noted losing some revenue due to fewer or lower premiums
           | being paid. The amount saved was far greater.
           | 
           | https://assets.ctfassets.net/nnc41duedoho/BNR4qtOTGPJuyQADtK.
           | ..
           | 
           | I wonder if the difference was largely because of Canada's
           | more strict lock downs. The roads were nearly dead here for
           | quite awhile.
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | And Canadian auto-parts prices are through the roof anyway.
             | If there's a factory-gate price increase/supply issue,
             | there's room for margin compression instead of raising
             | prices. Maybe?
        
           | stalfosknight wrote:
           | And yet there's seems to always been enough money for stock
           | buybacks and disgustingly excessive executive compensation.
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | I'm not usually a "actually this is the fault of regulation"
         | sort of person, but in this case it really is the fault of
         | regulation. A bunch of states have laws saying premiums can't
         | rise more than X% in a year, or can't rise at all without the
         | approval of the state insurance commissioner. If circumstances
         | have changed (e.g. wildfire or hurricane risk is now worse than
         | we thought, and also labor market tightness and inflation means
         | repairing/rebuilding is much more expensive) such that the
         | insurance company can't insure you profitably without a rate
         | hike they're forbidden to do, then of course they're going to
         | drop your policy.
        
         | epolanski wrote:
         | Nobody can be forced to insure you if they don't want to. I
         | learned that on CNBC the other day, here's the segment talking
         | about the state of home insurance in US.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xw8fpEpwMzA
        
         | Waterluvian wrote:
         | Can't really force people to do business like that...
         | 
         | What you can do, which the U.S. already does, is government-run
         | insurance, socializing the losses among a population. Flood
         | insurance, for example.
        
       | throwaway74432 wrote:
       | Related, my vehicle insurer keeps jacking up the rates. I've
       | never been in an accident or had a ticket, and I drive 2000 miles
       | per year. But every year up up up. Then they offer I install a
       | tracking device on my car to get my rates back down to a
       | reasonable amount. There seems to be a pattern of insurers
       | wanting to know everything about everyone, and using irrationally
       | higher rates to coerce consent. And I have to pay it or consent
       | to tracking because insurance is mandated by law.
        
         | p1esk wrote:
         | My insurer jacks up the rate even with the tracking device. The
         | rate more than doubled in the last 3 years.
        
         | gjsman-1000 wrote:
         | One of us needs to win a lottery; and force (er, strongly
         | incentivize) Congress to pass a law banning the lowering of
         | insurance prices based on tracking devices.
        
         | aesh2Xa1 wrote:
         | Car manufacturers are building telemetry into the vehicle,
         | which they can sell directly to insurance companies. If you buy
         | such a car, your insurer doesn't need you to install anything.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/technology/carmakers-driv...
         | 
         | My opinion is that the opt-in hardware might have afforded you
         | some discount, maybe. I doubt the same is true for the
         | manufacturer-insurer relationship. I think that pattern is
         | probably more likely to establish a higher baseline for all
         | drivers, and the presence of data can only ever (1) maintain
         | the baseline or (2) harm you.
        
         | syndicatedjelly wrote:
         | Maybe the rise in the prices of new cars, used parts, and labor
         | has an impact.
        
         | xyst wrote:
         | that's because the insurance model is not based on individual
         | performance but based on a collection of data points.
         | 
         | Insurance will jack up the renewal rates for everyone because
         | there are increased number of accidents in your zip code or
         | area. Cars are more expensive now. Often adjusters just declare
         | vehicles no longer worth the repair. Some vehicles if they get
         | dented will result in a shit ton of work to get it repaired
         | (ie, Rivian truck).
         | 
         | You are paying for the insurance companies increased risk
         | because the people around you can't drive worth shit.
         | 
         | Got to love car centric transportation ...
        
           | giantrobot wrote:
           | > You are paying for the insurance companies increased risk
           | because the people around you can't drive worth shit.
           | 
           | Insurance companies are supposed to be creating risk pools.
           | If everyone in my zip code drives like shit the insurance
           | company should be splitting them up into pools with better
           | drivers from other areas. There's no reason at all to pool
           | everyone geographically. If the insurance company can't
           | manage risk pools they're fucking up.
        
             | supertrope wrote:
             | You can lobby your politicians to mandate coarser rating
             | territories. This will ironically increase premiums more
             | than they otherwise would be. Just like banning credit,
             | gender, homeownership, occupation, etc.
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | You're free to change insurance companies, aren't you?
        
           | burntwater wrote:
           | They're ALL raising rates. You might be able to change to a
           | cheaper one this year, but next year your cheaper company
           | will have implemented a 20%+ increase.
        
           | nmeagent wrote:
           | You're also free to find companies whose contracts don't have
           | binding arbitration clauses. Good luck.
        
         | ska wrote:
         | repair cost goes up, up, up on average -> insurance goes up,
         | up, up.
         | 
         | That may only be part of it, but it's definitely part of it.
        
         | rchaud wrote:
         | > There seems to be a pattern of insurers wanting to know
         | everything about everyone
         | 
         | I see an exciting new revenue stream in their future.
        
       | Bostonian wrote:
       | Insurers telling you how to reduce the risk of accidents and
       | property damage is a good thing.
        
         | bastawhiz wrote:
         | The article literally opens with a story of an insurer dropping
         | a homeowner for having a roof that's too old with no recourse,
         | even when a third party expert said the roof is good for
         | another decade.
         | 
         | > The red-flagged images are providing insurers with ammunition
         | for nonrenewal notices nationwide.
         | 
         | I don't think your comment is wrong, but it's not
         | representative of the problem the article is bringing up.
        
       | time0ut wrote:
       | Insurance is a borderline scam. You have to have it by law or in
       | case the worst happens. When the worst does happen get ready for
       | a fight as they will do everything they can legally do to wriggle
       | out.
        
         | dmoy wrote:
         | You don't have to have home insurance by law, at least not in
         | the US
         | 
         | If you don't own your house outright, the bank that owns part
         | of it may require insurance as a prerequisite for loaning you
         | money.
        
           | mindslight wrote:
           | You're right about the ultimate legal situation, but there's
           | two problems I see with dropping insurance on a paid off
           | home. The first is that the companies, seemingly operating in
           | lock step, will heavily penalize you if you change your mind
           | and want to go back to insuring. The second is the liability
           | component, whereby simply owning a piece of real estate means
           | you're a juicy target to be found jointly liable for a whole
           | host of things that most people would consider unreasonable -
           | eg someone trespasses, injures themselves, and then sues you.
           | 
           | I've long said that one major threat that "regular people"
           | would suffer from the consumer surveillance industry was
           | going to be insurance (another being fine-grained price
           | discrimination). It looks like both are really starting to
           | come into swing. The best time for US privacy legislation
           | (including something analogous to the GDPR) was 20 years ago,
           | the second best time is now.
        
             | dmoy wrote:
             | > The first... The second
             | 
             | Sure, but neither of those are due to it being required by
             | law.
             | 
             | In the first case there I don't know what's happening, I
             | guess maybe insurance companies have figured out that
             | people dropping insurance and then picking it back up
             | correlates with increased claims due to stuff that happened
             | during the interim.
             | 
             | In the second case there, you can definitely get liability
             | insurance separately from homeowners. And it's wayyyy
             | cheaper. Or, live in a country that isn't as crazy
             | litigious as e.g. USA.
             | 
             | But again, neither is a legal requirement, which is all I
             | was getting at initially given the top comment in this
             | chain.
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | I have never valued insurance more than the moment at which
             | I owned my house outright. If you're so financially secure
             | that the loss of an asset that large is manageable, I sort
             | of don't much care about what you think about insurance
             | rates?
        
               | mindslight wrote:
               | Apparently in your book anybody that isn't _effectively
               | negative_ on assets (everyone needs a place to live) is
               | so rich they 're not entitled to an opinion on insurance
               | rates? This kind of weird aggro-dismissal seems like an
               | inevitable result of "privilege" politics based around
               | dragging everyone down to the lowest level. Having a
               | place to live where one isn't burning heaps of money on
               | rent should be our _expected societal baseline_ , not
               | some exceptional thing to be attacked.
               | 
               | But back to the topic - a total catastrophic structure
               | loss would indeed be a problem. But from what I've seen,
               | most insurance claims are not for total losses but rather
               | things like water leaks and roof damage that have much
               | higher sticker prices than what it actually costs to
               | maintain/triage/mitigate/calmly repair. I've known people
               | that have submitted claims for ice dams, oil burner
               | blowbacks, new roofs ("wind damage"), finished basement
               | water damage, etc. I will never submit an insurance claim
               | for those type of things, and so it makes sense to at
               | least _consider_ self insuring, especially when rates are
               | doubling every few years.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | You can have whatever opinion you'd like about insurance
               | rates, but if insurers are sustainably incurring losses,
               | rates have to go up, one way or the other: either
               | insurers raise their rates, or they exit the market,
               | decreasing competition and raising rates.
               | 
               | There's no way to moralize out of this!
               | 
               | Regarding minor claims: I think what I've learned about
               | homeowners insurance is: don't make minor claims. That's
               | not what the product is for. Homeowners insurance (1)
               | protects you from total loss of your primary asset (ie,
               | from fire) and (2) protects you from being bankrupted by
               | lawsuits. If you use it to repair leaks, you're going to
               | take a bath.
               | 
               | Have you applied for a homeowners policy recently?
               | Literally one of the first questions insurers ask is:
               | "have you made homeowners insurance claims?".
        
               | mindslight wrote:
               | I didn't try to "moralize out of this", apart from the
               | condemnation of many types of personal liability people
               | will find themselves on the receiving end of based on
               | simply owning real estate? That could certainly stand to
               | be reformed, but the criticism is aimed at the prevailing
               | laws rather than the insurance companies for working with
               | them.
               | 
               | Personally my gripe is that I wish insurance companies
               | would update what are seemingly quite obtuse pricing
               | models, rather than pushing customers into invasive
               | surveillance tech. For example I'd appreciate if it were
               | possible to raise my deductibles by an order of magnitude
               | and see a meaningful drop in premiums. But instead it
               | seems like the only coverage knob that has an effect is
               | the max coverage limit (which when you think about it,
               | actually shouldn't even be a thing. the whole point of
               | insurance is to cover the long tail risk). My gripe is a
               | little more pronounced for auto, where I quoted out
               | dropping the miles driven on one vehicle to nearly zero
               | and it reduced premium by a mere 10%.
               | 
               | Re minor claims, maybe I'm underestimating how much
               | future premiums went up after those somewhat frivolous
               | homeowners claims I mentioned, and they effectively just
               | ended up forming loans rather than affecting the overall
               | expected value of losses.
        
           | wincy wrote:
           | My uncle didn't have insurance for a house he'd paid off. An
           | arsonist burned it down six months later and then he
           | proceeded to get letters from the city telling him to mow his
           | lawn for the next ten years.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | Just because you don't have a livable structure on the
             | property means the property is exempt from any of the
             | property regulations. What a weird rant.
        
         | bvan wrote:
         | Without insurance, we'd be living in much different
         | circumstances. Just consider parts of the world where insurance
         | is just not available to much of the population.
        
         | overstay8930 wrote:
         | If it's a scam then don't buy it. Pay cash for everything and
         | put up a bond with your state, you don't even need car
         | insurance at that point.
        
         | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
         | You don't have to have home insurance if you own the home.
        
       | gjsman-1000 wrote:
       | 5 years ago, a family friend got an angry letter from the city
       | because he had cleared slightly too much lakefront weeds (and by
       | slightly - I mean very lightly, enough to anger the algorithm
       | lightly). How did they know? Drone. And this was suburban
       | Minnesota.
       | 
       | Not even insurance - this was the city of Newport on a power
       | rampage. Turns out there's also no shortage of general corruption
       | in the police department...
       | 
       | https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/footage-shows-newp...
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | rules are rules. you complaining about this is like football
         | fans complaining about the tight offside calls.
        
           | gjsman-1000 wrote:
           | Imagine if I put cameras all over a city that charged you $10
           | every time you exceeded the speed limit by 1 MPH. With an
           | additional $10 fee for each additional MPH measure over the
           | limit. Also, this is per camera, so if you pass 6 cameras on
           | your commute going 70 in a 65, you're getting a $300 penalty.
           | 
           | Rules are rules.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | ahhh, see, there's a fatal flaw in your premise. I don't
             | own a car, so this would never affect me. So, yes, rules
             | are rules.
        
             | CubsFan1060 wrote:
             | I'm not sure how exactly you're drawing that parallel, but,
             | IMHO, that would be just fine. I suspect people would speed
             | a lot less.
        
             | Ekaros wrote:
             | Hmm, works like this in many places. That is 6 different
             | infractions. Probably also means suspended license.
        
             | t0mas88 wrote:
             | You're quite accurately describing traffic enforcement in
             | Switzerland and recently larger Belgian cities.
        
         | hilux wrote:
         | What does drones detecting weeds have to do with "general
         | corruption"?
         | 
         | If anything, overzealous adherence to the letter of the law,
         | while annoying, seems the exact opposite of "corruption."
        
       | denton-scratch wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/SSXdN
        
       | gmd63 wrote:
       | Insurance bothers me for a few reasons:
       | 
       | 1. What pisses me off more than anything else, it enables fraud
       | that otherwise wouldn't exist. People manufacturing calamities
       | and then claiming insurance allows dishonest people to get ahead
       | in life over people who are honest and concerned enough about the
       | future to buy insurance. Additionally, insurance fraud is net bad
       | relative to other types of fraud because it encourages criminals
       | to manufacture damage that wouldn't otherwise happen.
       | 
       | 2. There is an obvious incentive for them to chase an endgame of
       | knowing exactly whether you will cost them money or make them
       | money. When they attain this, insurance simply becomes a fortune
       | teller and an instruction manual for Living Without Calamity. If
       | you're denied coverage, you're going to experience something
       | calamitous. If you're accepted, you have the ability to be fine
       | and don't need insurance, unless you aren't sure how to Live
       | Without Calamity. When you are accepted, you're only covered if
       | you surrender your agency and follow their instructions for
       | Living Without Calamity. Basic things like travelers insurance
       | have clauses that void your policy if you scuba dive past 30 feet
       | on your trip.
       | 
       | 3. Insurance policies can create toxic incentives for people that
       | hurt society. I filed a claim with Generali travel insurance
       | because my host tested positive for COVID with a take home test,
       | and I canceled my trip. Their web portal indicated that my claim
       | had been received and was awaiting processing. I called
       | incessantly to confirm my claim was good, and was not able to get
       | an answer after several calls that routed through incompetent-by-
       | design help desk employees and into a voicemailbox of a claims
       | processor. Weeks go by and I receive a voicemail from the person
       | I had been trying to contact telling me that I needed a doctor's
       | note confirming that the person had COVID, and a take home test
       | would not suffice. So, a company allegedly tasked with helping
       | the public live safely wanted me to, at the time, ask my COVID
       | infected host to waltz in to the doctor's office and spread
       | around a pathogen that could kill patients. Nice. I guess they
       | weren't medical insurance so they didn't care. And of course no
       | doctor would retroactively go back in time and confirm that a
       | person was positive for a sickness after they had already
       | recovered.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | What did policy actually state around medical reasons for trip
         | cancellation? I'm not aware of any insurers that would accept a
         | home COVID-19 test to justify a claim since it isn't reliably
         | tied to any particular patient.
        
           | gmd63 wrote:
           | They don't allow at home tests. That's my point. If I had
           | wanted my claim to go through, I would have needed to tell my
           | host, who at the time was infectious, to go have a doctor
           | confirm it.
           | 
           | So the price to defend against fraud--which, related to my
           | point #1, is prevalent enough such that Generali has this
           | policy--is to ask infected people to spread their sickness in
           | doctors offices just so they can use doctors as tools to
           | verify claims are legitimate.
           | 
           | So yes, I should have read the policy, but I would not have
           | asked my host to go into the doctor's office and spread COVID
           | around just so I could get my legitimate claim processed. I
           | just wouldn't have bought the policy in the first place.
        
             | xcv123 wrote:
             | The host can book a virtual appointment and get a doctors
             | certificate online. It is easy and done in a few minutes.
             | The insurer should have told you that.
        
         | mk_stjames wrote:
         | Regarding your situation in point #3, if your claim was of
         | significant monetary value (I'm guessing $>2k) I think at that
         | point I would have cited them some numbers from journal studies
         | on take home tests showing sensitivity of such home tests as at
         | least (78.9)[1] percent of a professionally administered PCR
         | test and that by their actuary logic you should then at least
         | receive at least 78.9% in return compensation of your total
         | claim based on this data and if they otherwise refused a payout
         | your follow up would be with a claims lawyer.
         | 
         | I have no idea how that would play out but it seems like an
         | interesting strategy to take.
         | 
         | [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34448871/
        
         | xcv123 wrote:
         | > So, a company allegedly tasked with helping the public live
         | safely wanted me to, at the time, ask my COVID infected host to
         | waltz in to the doctor's office and spread around a pathogen
         | that could kill patients. Nice.
         | 
         | No. That is done over the phone or video chat. Not required to
         | physically attend a doctors appointment in order to obtain a
         | doctors note for COVID infection. It's called telemedicine or
         | virtual consultation.
        
           | gmd63 wrote:
           | Yes. Here's the actual covered event from the policy:
           | 
           | "The Sickness, Injury or death of you, your Family Member,
           | your Traveling Companion or your Service Animal. The Sickness
           | or Injury must first commence while your coverage is in
           | effect under the Policy, must require the in-person treatment
           | by a Physician, and must be so disabling in the written
           | opinion of a Physician as to prevent you from taking your
           | Trip (either because your condition prevents your travel, or
           | because your Family Member, Traveling Companion or your
           | Service Animal requires your care);"
        
             | xcv123 wrote:
             | So if a doctor provides a written note they would reject
             | that note because it was done through a virtual
             | consultation? The doctors note should be sufficient and the
             | fact that it was done virtually should be irrelevant and
             | confidential. How is that legal?
        
       | sys_64738 wrote:
       | Even if you can't get insurance covering the roof, then ask for
       | that to be an exclusion so you can get other insurance covering
       | your home. Personal liability from lack of insurance can bankrupt
       | you.
        
       | steelframe wrote:
       | I'm not sure the degree to which insurance companies are legally
       | allowed to share information such as aerial photographs with each
       | other.
       | 
       | When I worked at Google I knew a developer who was building a
       | prototype service similar to Google Flights, except for auto and
       | home insurance. I don't think that product ever shipped.
       | 
       | The dev on that team told me that a key thing they learned while
       | doing the analysis is that the optimal strategy with auto and
       | home insurance is to automatically switch providers whenever it's
       | time to renew.
       | 
       | It could be because your current company has collected things
       | about you that they aren't allowed to share with other insurance
       | companies.
        
         | t0mas88 wrote:
         | I think the most common reason is that insurance companies try
         | to attract new customers with lower rates / discounts and
         | welcome gifts. Switching every year means a new insurance
         | company spends their acquisition money on you every year.
        
           | CapmCrackaWaka wrote:
           | Yeah, people like to think there's all kinds of grand
           | conspiracies out there when it comes to insurance companies.
           | But they're all actually very, very boring. All of these
           | pricing algorithms are filed with the DOI, and are public.
           | There is nothing crazy in them. The reason prices to go up at
           | renewal is because that's just the optimal economics of
           | insurance companies. Get you in at a competitive new business
           | rate and then increase rates at renewal to offset the losses
           | that new business policies incur.
           | 
           | The product the OP is talking about made quite a buzz in the
           | business when it was first released (I do think it came out
           | for a while). It was a price comparison tool, and the reason
           | it failed was because it was hard to get the big brand names
           | on board. The big brand names didn't want to compete on price
           | alone, because they spent so much money on their brand. They
           | already had a ton of customers coming straight to their
           | website.
           | 
           | Sorry for any formatting or spelling issues here, I'm using
           | voice to text.
        
             | steelframe wrote:
             | > But they're all actually very, very boring.
             | 
             | In fact they're actuarially very, very boring!
        
         | Symbiote wrote:
         | https://www.comparethemarket.com/ is the best known comparison
         | site for insurance in the UK.
         | 
         | Is there not an equivalent in the USA?
        
           | NewJazz wrote:
           | Each state has its own market.
        
       | bvan wrote:
       | Insurance works on the basis of (a) quantifying risk and (b)
       | charging fairly for the protection. In the long-term, getting
       | better at (a) and consequently, (b), is in everybody's interest.
       | For far too long, certain risk covers have been under-charged. At
       | the end of the day, difficulty in finding affordable insurance,
       | or any insurance at all, tells you something about the level of
       | risk and the ability of insurers to charge appropriately for it.
       | Regulators are often way behind the curve, to the detriment of
       | insurers and consumers.
        
         | rchaud wrote:
         | If this were true, health insurers would have taken a cudgel to
         | the US hospital system decades ago and come up with a more
         | efficient system. They haven't because an opaque system allows
         | them to maintain their own opaque practices.
        
           | selectodude wrote:
           | Health insurance companies don't care about what your doctor
           | earns in the same way home insurance companies don't care
           | about the cost of the roofer. They're going to price in
           | whatever that cost may be and call it a day.
           | 
           | Health insurance has it easier too because there's not really
           | a concept of correlated risk in human populations. Most
           | people do a decent job avoiding hurting themselves but when a
           | flood comes, there's not a whole lot anybody can do.
        
             | jenny91 wrote:
             | COVID?
        
             | chug wrote:
             | Health insurance companies do actually care, unfortunately.
             | They're incentivized to embrace higher prices since they
             | have to spend at least 80% of premiums on payouts. If you
             | have a fixed margin, well, you have to increase premiums to
             | increase profit, so higher prices means more profit.
        
         | knallfrosch wrote:
         | Related:
         | 
         | Climate change is coming for America's property market
         | Insurance is supposed to signal risk. Policymakers should let
         | it https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/09/21/climate-
         | change-...
         | 
         | Parts of America are becoming uninsurable Blame growth in
         | hazardous areas, climate change and bad policy
         | https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/09/21/parts-of-...
        
         | _tom_ wrote:
         | And (c) in the long term influence the risk. Insurance
         | companies have long worked to improve auto safety. This
         | benefits everyone. This needs to be applied to more significant
         | risks, like fire flood and storm.
         | 
         | I think we have to get much more serious about prevention.
         | People are doing this:
         | 
         | Fire safety:
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/2023/08/24/1195331310/red-roof-house-fir...
         | 
         | Storm safety:
         | 
         | https://abcnews.go.com/US/mexico-beach-home-survives-hurrica...
         | 
         | We need to mandate this kind of building in new construction
         | and modified construction.
         | 
         | It may be worthwhile to subsidize this, to help with turning
         | existing high risks into low risks.
         | 
         | We need to be more severe on forbidding building in danger
         | zones, and more accepting of insurers pricing these based on
         | risk, so they don't have to leave the state, and others can be
         | priced to more common levels of risk.
         | 
         | We also need to not allow rebuilding in areas that will have
         | these problems again, without some way of mitigating. We should
         | not have to pay for someone's third house in a flood zone. But
         | if you can make it flood proof after the first one, great.
        
           | imgabe wrote:
           | > This needs to be applied to more significant risks, like
           | fire flood and storm.
           | 
           | It is. The NFPA (National Fire Protection Agency) writes the
           | National Electric Code and other safety codes that get
           | adopted into law as building codes. It was started by a
           | coalition of insurance agencies.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Fire_Protection_Assoc.
           | ..
        
       | hilux wrote:
       | On a similar theme [near-future consequences of data-driven
       | technocracy], read the hilarious _Qualityland_, by Marc-Uwe
       | Kling.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | Auburn, California, is a mistake and should be uninsurable, and I
       | don't want either my tax dollars or my insurance premiums being
       | used to subsidize the treehouse lifestyle of exurban home owners.
       | Whether this specific person's roof is rotted or not isn't really
       | the point. Right now, the real estate sprawl industry is running
       | their printing press at 110% design speed, trying to convince
       | everyone that people who live on the fringes of civilization are
       | getting a bad deal. But from where I sit, in a fireproof building
       | downtown, I see it differently. We need a massive correction in
       | California, under which we stop subsidizing the firefighting,
       | insurance, and roads that serve the sprawl.
       | 
       | The subject property, by the way:
       | https://www.google.com/maps/place/2350+Buttes+View+Ln,+Aubur...
        
         | s1gsegv wrote:
         | I can understand feeling like both taxes and insurance premiums
         | are too high, but the ability to make choices other than the
         | specifically least risky one is one that fundamentally allows
         | us to exercise our free will.
         | 
         | Those in Auburn are, by the same idea, subsidizing windows that
         | get smashed when parking downtown, or even if you walk, the
         | extra risk that you are hurt by someone while walking in a
         | place with more crime per square mile.
         | 
         | You can live far away from a downtown and have to get your car
         | smogged, because we wanted cars in the cities to provide for
         | clean air.
         | 
         | I don't mean we need to accept all risk in society, but for me
         | there's a very worrying trend against ANY risk/cost that
         | doesn't directly benefit the person advocating against it.
         | 
         | Ultimately I know it comes back to the current economic
         | situation, because if everyone feels like they're struggling
         | there's less thought to care for others.
        
         | dilyevsky wrote:
         | The problem is not the sprawl, it's the out of control
         | construction costs due to regulation and insurance premium caps
         | due to... you guessed it - regulations
        
       | perihelions wrote:
       | Related idea:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36268907 ( _" French tax
       | officials use AI to spot 20k undeclared pools (2022)"_, 166
       | comments)
        
       | djha-skin wrote:
       | I used to work for Verisk, an insurance tech holding company, who
       | owned a company that took pictures of people's roofs using
       | airplanes and special cameras. They got sued over a patent
       | violation with EagleView[1], who claimed the tech idea as their
       | own, and settled.
       | 
       | > The strategic alliance allows customers seamless and integrated
       | access to EagleView technology within Verisk's Xactware platform
       | 
       | Xactware is a product that customers (read: insurance companies)
       | use to figure out how much money to pay on a claim.
       | 
       | The whole idea is to speed up the claims process. Insurance
       | agents don't need to go out to people's houses to examine roof
       | damage. But we also had a department doing some pretty
       | sophisticated stuff around preventing claims fraud, so I'm not
       | surprised.
       | 
       | 1: https://www.verisk.com/company/newsroom/verisk-and-
       | eagleview...
        
         | 2four2 wrote:
         | I recently started going through many big data collectors and
         | expressing my rights to know, delete, and stop selling my
         | information.
         | 
         | Verisk makes the process notoriously difficult compared to
         | other companies, you have to start an "ethics" report in their
         | ticketing system
         | 
         | https://secure.ethicspoint.com/domain/media/en/gui/69464/ind...
        
           | passwordoops wrote:
           | Is there a list of companies out there you can share, or are
           | you going about it on your own?
        
           | kristjansson wrote:
           | Real question: is something like aerial photography of your
           | roof really subject to privacy laws?
        
             | Terr_ wrote:
             | IANAL, but in the US, it depends on whether could have
             | reasonably expected that their stuff was hidden. If your
             | roof is sloped so that a person on the street could get the
             | same information by walking around the block, then aerial
             | surveillance is just a faster way to get that public
             | observation.
             | 
             | In contrast, if you set up a high fence around your pool in
             | order to sunbathe naked, aerial photography would probably
             | be an invasion of your privacy? If your roof was designed
             | in a similar way, one might be able to argue it was wrong
             | for the company to observe aspects of it without
             | permission. (Although they might have gotten permission via
             | the insurance contract...)
             | 
             | I think this legal standard becomes tricky (or at least
             | _ought_ to receive more scrutiny) when we start talking
             | about pervasiveness and permanence. Just because I know
             | that an arbitrary person might take a picture of me in
             | public doesn 't mean I _expect_ every single thing I do
             | outside to be recorded forever by a technological invisible
             | stalker hovering over my shoulder at every outdoor moment.
        
               | zdragnar wrote:
               | Privacy in the US is defined as property rights, and your
               | private property does not extend infinitely upwards into
               | space. Anything over a certain high is public and
               | regulated, and so if it is visible from above, it is not
               | protected.
               | 
               | Otherwise, it would be illegal to fly a plane or even a
               | hot air balloon pretty much anywhere, and even things
               | like google maps satellite view couldn't exist.
        
             | organsnyder wrote:
             | I work in privacy (as a dev, so the breadth of my knowledge
             | isn't necessarily comprehensive), and to my knowledge
             | there's no privacy regulations that would prevent this.
             | Effectively, they're saying that the roof at a certain
             | address is in a certain condition. I don't see how that
             | could be considered personal data.
        
             | NovemberWhiskey wrote:
             | No.
        
           | kbos87 wrote:
           | I've thought about doing this myself and I wish there was a
           | service that made it easier.
           | 
           | The one thing in the back of my mind is also that there's a
           | risk of this backfiring over time. When you are unknown to
           | potential creditors, employers, etc in whatever platforms
           | they choose to use to look you up, that's the ultimate sign
           | of risk.
        
             | brewdad wrote:
             | Yes. Similar to being a young person trying to establish a
             | credit history, if there is little to no info to go on
             | companies will tend to assume the worst about your
             | riskiness and charge accordingly.
        
           | thelastgallon wrote:
           | > I recently started going through many big data collectors
           | and expressing my rights to know, delete, and stop selling my
           | information.
           | 
           | Can you share how to go about it? Do you have a blog post?
        
         | westurner wrote:
         | Did either of the parties move to invalidate the patent claims
         | as obvious as, say, a camera on a stick or a toy airplane with
         | a camera?
        
       | contingencies wrote:
       | So wattle-it-be... switch insurers, live underground, or plant
       | trees? Wattles are fast-growing and there's plenty of choice.
       | http://worldwidewattle.com/
        
       | comprev wrote:
       | Interesting to see this pop up on HN. I once did some work with a
       | large international data broker who had recently acquired a
       | company which specialised on aerial photography and ML for
       | identifying potential insurance risks.
       | 
       | I'm an infra guy by trade and really enjoyed learning about the
       | tech while on their team. Mind blowing stuff to me!!
        
       | jdhzzz wrote:
       | Related (2010) on finding untaxed swimming pools on Long Island
       | using Google Earth: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/heads-
       | up-google-earth-...
        
       | lamontcg wrote:
       | > "If your roof is 20 years old and one hailstorm is going to
       | take it off, you should pay more than somebody with a brand new
       | roof,"
       | 
       | If you've been paying for insurance for 20 years with one
       | company, then I'd say that is certainly a dick move to drop you
       | right before it might pay out. What even is the point then?
        
         | Netcob wrote:
         | The (lesser) dick move is also pitting customers against each
         | other.
        
           | rrr_oh_man wrote:
           | Divide et impera. Works with insurance, social security, and
           | third world countries.
        
         | almostnormal wrote:
         | Do car insurances pay the full price for crashed old cars? If
         | roofs are designed with a similarly limited expected useful
         | life lower payout would make sense like for cars?
        
       | medion wrote:
       | This aerial stuff now enhanced by AI is a privacy rights
       | nightmare - in Australia, local councils are utilizing high res
       | images shot by plane, which are AI analysed for infractions - ie.
       | Illegal outbuildings, cut trees, earth works greater than a metre
       | in depth, solar panels placed without auth etc. This kind of tech
       | is going to be abused by both the private and public sector to no
       | end. The images have a resolution to the point where veins on a
       | tree leaf are perceptible.
       | 
       | We are literally going to be monitored from the sky by AI for a
       | lot of things, and from a legal standpoint at this stage there is
       | nothing to stop anyone from doing it.
        
         | killingtime74 wrote:
         | (Am Australian lawyer) there's no privacy recognised in any of
         | those things you're talking about. Simple solution is don't lie
         | to insurers or the government.
         | 
         | Of course we can elect politicians that change the law. Might
         | be a hard sell if the motivation is to stop detection of
         | illegal things.
         | 
         | Sources: (no general right to privacy)
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Park_Racing_%26_Rec...
         | 
         | The Privacy Act (https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/privacy-
         | legislation/the-priv...)
        
           | medion wrote:
           | Haha, by your reckoning why not monitor all comms for any
           | lies? This is why we can't have nice things. We are walking
           | into a new Robodebt scenario run by AI - it's all too much
           | living in a constant state of surveillance and it's not a
           | world I want to live in.
        
             | killingtime74 wrote:
             | I don't represent any view point on the law just telling
             | you how it is. There's always multiple competing
             | priorities. Ultimately not a politician so it doesn't
             | really matter what I think.
             | 
             | If we're talking morality I don't see how it's moral to ask
             | the law to protect you from being found out doing the wrong
             | thing. If these people don't pay their fair share the rest
             | of us have to pay more.
             | 
             | What if a law change prevents the government from enforcing
             | environmental legislation from illegal land clearing or
             | dumping? What if a farmer illegally diverts more water than
             | they are allowed to from a river or with a well? It's not
             | just about you and me but the whole country.
             | 
             | On robodebt: that has nothing to do with privacy, tax
             | records aren't private from the government? That's just bad
             | tax enforcement.
        
             | dontupvoteme wrote:
             | Don't give aussies any ideas, they tried to make
             | mathematics illegal. Sometimes they take the worst aspects
             | of the british and americans and make it their own
        
               | killingtime74 wrote:
               | By far the worst thing we have is lack of protection on
               | whistleblowers. There's multiple facing decades in jail
               | right now. Even a change in governments didn't stop the
               | prosecutions
        
         | Nifty3929 wrote:
         | This is not a technology or privacy problem - it's a
         | legislative one. If it's illegal to do X, then it seems
         | reasonable for the gov't to enforce that - the more efficiently
         | the better. And if enforcing it seems wrong, then maybe it
         | shouldn't be a law.
         | 
         | For another toy example, what if speed laws in the US were
         | fully enforced 100% of the time - they would be yanked
         | immediately, because they are dumb and mostly just used to fund
         | the police. We only tolerate them because they aren't enforced
         | on us very often as individuals. It's like a medium-skill
         | lottery to see who pays for the police.
        
           | medion wrote:
           | The technology is an enabler and it creeps into everything
           | and before you know it we are where we are today.
        
           | ahtihn wrote:
           | > what if speed laws in the US were fully enforced 100% of
           | the time - they would be yanked immediately, because they are
           | dumb and mostly just used to fund the police
           | 
           | Or maybe people would adjust their behavior and respect speed
           | limits? Laws that are sporadically enforced at the discretion
           | of police officers are awful. It just enables discrimination.
        
       | tptacek wrote:
       | I don't really understand the privacy concern here. To wit:
       | insurers can demand _actual inspection_ of your home when making
       | underwriting decisions. The condition of your house is very much
       | their business. Why is an aerial photograph of your roof, which
       | everybody in the world already has on Google Maps, such a big
       | deal?
        
         | worik wrote:
         | The problem is the culling
         | 
         | Insurance companies are very keen to get as much risk as
         | possible off their books before the climate gets even more
         | extreme in its volatility
         | 
         | Good goes with bad, so long as the bad goes, some good going
         | too is undesirable but OK because they are aware if the
         | catastrophic climate events looming
         | 
         | The insurance companies are behaving logically, probably
         | legally IANAL, but for people who are simply caught in the wash
         | it is unfair
         | 
         | This is part of the huge systematic disruptions we are all
         | going to have to adapt to, or die from, due to climate change
         | 
         | Worrying times
        
           | Nifty3929 wrote:
           | Insurance companies are keen to align risks with premiums.
           | The more accurately they do so, the less volatility they will
           | have. And in the short run, probably more profit as well.
           | This also helps consumers, where lower-risk folks will
           | overpay less, and higher-risk folks will be required to lower
           | their risk or contribute more in premiums.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | You (say) have a trampoline. I do not. We share an insurer.
           | Our insurer asked, when you applied, if you had a trampoline.
           | Your trampoline materially increases the risk that insurance
           | is going to have to pay to cover a lawsuit on your property.
           | You lied, and said you didn't. I am now paying to subsidize
           | your trampoline.
           | 
           | Why shouldn't I want them to be running drones over our
           | houses? Worrying times... for pirate trampolines!
        
             | RomanAlexander wrote:
             | Wouldn't said trampoline simply not be covered by the
             | policy since you lied about it? The agents are checking a
             | box and the underwriter is sticking in a boilerplate
             | "Customer said no trampoline therefore trampolines are
             | excluded from this policy" text
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | It depends on the policy, but either way, this is the
               | kind of risk we're talking about managing with culls:
               | trampolines, and bad roofs. I pay to keep my house up.
               | You (say) don't. Why should I be OK with subsidizing your
               | resulting claims with higher rates?
               | 
               | I think there's a sort of weird subtext in the "risk
               | pooling" discussions on this thread that "risk pooling"
               | is a way for people who don't replace their old roofs to
               | get protection from the people who do. But that's not at
               | all the concept! You refusing you repair your roof isn't
               | an act of god; it's just recklessness.
        
               | NovemberWhiskey wrote:
               | It's worse than that actually; say the liar's house burns
               | down and the insurance adjuster finds the trampoline in
               | the garden after the fact. As I understand it, the
               | insurer can void the entire contract.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | I mean, the insurer in that case discovered that the
               | client was defrauding them. If you steal $100 from
               | someone's cash register, buy scratchy lotteries with it,
               | win $200, and put the $100 back in the register, you're
               | still a thief. That's the logic here: you gambled on a
               | pirate trampoline and feel like you should have won.
               | 
               | I don't know if it really is the case that your insurance
               | can be voided over material misrepresentations unrelated
               | to your claim, but certainly there's no moral argument
               | that it shouldn't work that way.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | It isn't always fraud or lying - you apply for insurance.
               | Insurer asks you a million questions. One is "do you have
               | a trampoline"? You honestly answer "No". The fine print
               | of the application form says you have to tell them if at
               | any time your answers change. After a while, you forget
               | it even asked you about a trampoline. Then, you get your
               | kid a trampoline. Per insurance fine print, you are
               | suppose to inform the insurer of this change in
               | circumstances immediately, but you've forgotten that.
               | 
               | Also, it depends on the jurisdiction, but while the
               | insurer can try to void the whole contract, courts don't
               | always let them do it, especially if the policyholder
               | convinces the court it was an innocent mistake or
               | oversight rather than a deliberate lie.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | This is not a good example of "fine print", because
               | trampolines are notorious sources of injury. It's like if
               | you added a pool to your property and didn't tell your
               | insurer because you "forgot the fine print". You can
               | plead that, but if I was your neighbor, I'd be rooting
               | for the insurer. Knowing about the dangers of things you
               | set up on your property is on you.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | We used to have a trampoline. We never once told our
               | insurer about it. When I first applied for the insurance
               | (at the same time we bought the house), I have no memory
               | of being asked if we had one (we didn't at the time). I
               | don't remember ever seeing that question from them,
               | although I can't be completely certain it wasn't on some
               | piece of paper and I didn't notice it. If they never ask,
               | I'm under no obligation to tell them.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Look, I hear you, but at some point this has to be on
               | you. The CPSC has a thing dedicated to trampolines. The
               | Mayo Clinic has articles about it. It is a huge cause of
               | injuries of minors around the country. I'll grant that
               | this is slightly more obscure an issue than swimming
               | pools, but there are tons of swimming pool buyers who
               | would make similar claims ("nobody told me swimming pools
               | were that risky, this is just fine print mumbo jumbo"),
               | and I don't think anyone here would entertain those.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | Well, I'm not in America, and I'm wondering if this is an
               | American thing?
               | 
               | I just checked my insurance policy. The word "trampoline"
               | never once occurs in it. I don't think my insurer cares
               | about trampolines.
               | 
               | If I think about it: given the absurdly large payouts for
               | some injury lawsuits in the US, I understand why American
               | insurers might be particularly sensitive to things that
               | might induce injury, like trampolines. Given Australian
               | courts tend to be much more modest in the damages they
               | award, I can see why Australian insurers might not see
               | them as something worth paying any special attention to.
        
               | pxeboot wrote:
               | > Wouldn't said trampoline simply not be covered by the
               | policy since you lied about it?
               | 
               | This doesn't stop expensive lawsuits, even if they
               | ultimately don't pay the claim.
        
           | wombatpm wrote:
           | Insurance companies want money to come in and never go out.
           | If they could they would sell life insurance to dead people
           | and homeowners insurance to the homeless.
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | The irony here is that's what insurance customers want,
             | too: to incur arbitrary risks and have other more
             | responsible customers pay for them.
        
             | trogdor wrote:
             | Businesses want to maximize profits, but an insurance
             | company that doesn't pay claims will quickly have no
             | customers.
        
           | delfinom wrote:
           | Lol my dude, trampolines in backyards being a rejection
           | reason has nothing to do with climate change.
           | 
           | Yes climate change has caused an upheaval in some
           | geographical regions.
           | 
           | But there are many economic forces at play, from the
           | treatment of real estate as an investment making every home a
           | million dollars to insurers all being reinsured by a ever
           | smaller pool of reinsurers.
        
         | sarchertech wrote:
         | It's an issue of scale. Similar to police tracking phones.
         | Police have always been able to assign an officer to follow a
         | suspect, but it's expensive and therefore rarely done.
         | 
         | If insurance companies can cheaply inspect everyone's house
         | from space, the end result will be to lower prices for people
         | with homes in perfect condition and raise them for everyone
         | else.
         | 
         | This is potentially problematic because the people with houses
         | in poor condition are the least able to afford added costs in
         | general.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | Why is it not a good thing if insurance is more accurately
           | priced? Insurance isn't a redistribution mechanism. And
           | dilapidated roofs aren't a social good. Municipalities have
           | _actual_ redistribution schemes to make these kinds of
           | repairs.
           | 
           | I'll note that there's nothing at all redistributive about
           | sneaking a trampoline onto your property, too.
           | 
           | Further, I'll note that working class people also take pride
           | in their houses and pay to keep them up, and they too are
           | being asked to subsidize people who are getting rate breaks
           | from false assessments.
           | 
           |  _Later_
           | 
           | My municipality will make an interest-free loan of up to
           | $25,000 to cover the kinds of property repairs we're
           | discussing, if you're income-qualified (ie: not too rich to
           | just pay to replace your own roof).
        
             | drekipus wrote:
             | Isn't insurance entirely a redistribution mechanism?
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Not in the sense evoked by customer purchasing power.
        
               | compiler-guy wrote:
               | No. It's a risk pooling mechanism.
               | 
               | If a group of ten people all have a one in one-thousand
               | per year chance of a million-dollar loss each year, then
               | their annual premium will be:
               | 
               | 10 x 0.001 x $1,000,000 = $10,000 (plus some
               | administrative overhead and assuming a very basic risk
               | model)
               | 
               | It has nothing to do with who is rich and who is poor or
               | making anyone come out ahead of their own losses.
        
             | smodo wrote:
             | Lol that's precisely what it is. It redistributes the cost
             | of accidents. Across all its members, paid forward.
             | 
             | Just don't get insurance and nothing of yours will pay for
             | anything belonging to anybody else.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | No, it's not. The idea of a risk pool is that everyone's
               | catastrophic risks cancel out, not that people who
               | replace their roofs also chip in to cover hail and water
               | damage for people who don't.
        
             | rolandog wrote:
             | Because everything is turned as a cash-grab by corporations
             | and prices never go down.
        
               | dgoldstein0 wrote:
               | In some states insurance rates are regulated. Definitely
               | know they are in California.
               | 
               | That said whether the regulators are effective in keeping
               | costs down is a different issue. But my not-very-deep
               | understanding is that risks are rising, e.g. large
               | wildfires in the US West, and increased hurricane
               | frequency and strength on the Gulf Coast, and the only
               | way to deal with that for the insurers is to raise
               | prices, or drop customers - sometimes to the point of
               | abandoning the market altogether. This sounds like
               | another piece in that trend.
        
             | sarchertech wrote:
             | I'm not arguing what insurance should be I'm merely talking
             | about the end result of this technology.
             | 
             | I guarantee you income is correlated with state of home
             | repair. If insurance companies can more easily access state
             | of repair, lower income individuals will end up paying more
             | than they did previously.
             | 
             | Regardless of whether that is fair, it is a change from the
             | status quo, and it's obvious why some people would consider
             | that problematic.
        
         | imgabe wrote:
         | I think the issue is that in some cases the information is
         | inaccurate and there are sometimes limited avenues for a
         | customer to object if their insurance is cancelled based on
         | inaccurate information.
         | 
         | To the extent that the information is accurate, I agree. If you
         | make an agreement with a company and buy insurance based on
         | your statement that you don't have a pool, but then you do have
         | a pool, I don't see any reason why we should be upset that you
         | didn't get away with lying to the insurance company.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | They can generally decline coverage for any reason, for what
           | it's worth; they could cancel without aerial footage just on
           | the hunch that you didn't replace your roof, or they could
           | mass-mail their customers demanding proof of roof
           | replacements.
           | 
           | (The article and other things I'm reading suggest that
           | cancellations are because footage finds trampolines and pools
           | --- in which case I don't even understand how anybody can
           | have sympathy. It's fine to have insurance risks on your
           | property! But disclose them!)
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | They can also use the info to decide if they allow a renewal.
           | 
           | They can decide not to renew for any reason - including that
           | they just decided not to do house insurance at all anymore.
        
           | pants2 wrote:
           | Last time I was shopping for home insurance, an agent told me
           | I was too close to a canyon, which I thought was strange
           | because there are no canyons near me. They sent me a
           | screenshot of the fire danger map where clearly it had the
           | wrong location / coordinates for my address (they thought I
           | was about a mile from where I really live).
           | 
           | I pointed them to my address on Google Maps which has my
           | correct location, but they said their system isn't wrong and
           | the address coordinate mapping can't be changed anyway. Go
           | away.
           | 
           | Then another insurance company told me the same thing. I
           | thought maybe I was going to be uninsurable completely based
           | off of a computer error.
           | 
           | Luckily, Lemonade has smarter systems and got my location
           | right, so I was able to get insured with them. But I'm not
           | sure what I would do without lemonade.
        
         | gxs wrote:
         | In these cases, the argument is always of the type you just
         | mentioned.
         | 
         | "What's the big deal the data is already available, relax". On
         | top of that, it comes with an air of condescension as if no one
         | had ever thought about that before.
         | 
         | One concern with things like this is that it's different when
         | you have to send someone out to inspect a home vs inspecting
         | thousands of homes at a time. Once you have data in that
         | volume, you can start to infer things that do borderline
         | encroach on privacy.
         | 
         | What is the case here, and it might be what you were trying to
         | point out, is that this kind of data is already collected
         | regularly and is by the books legal. The concern here is simply
         | at the application.
         | 
         | At this point the cats out of the bag and the best we can hope
         | for is at least some level of protection through legislation.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | Again: insurers can and do demand _home inspections_ when
           | underwriting. This is strictly less intrusive than common
           | existing practices in insurance.
        
       | kmbfjr wrote:
       | Allstate refused to offer a policy quote because my house is
       | fuzzed out on its street view photo from 2011.
        
       | switch007 wrote:
       | We are sprinting towards a dystopia of "computer says no".
       | Decisions taken affecting your life and finances made by
       | computers delivered by minimum wage powerless staff.
       | 
       | I'm sure healthcare insurance companies are inspired by the
       | actions of the home insurance companies. "you declared you never
       | smoked but our drone footage shows you and a plume of smoke in
       | the same area. The AI detected it as cigarette smoke. Your
       | coverage is cancelled and this is our final decision. "
        
       | d--b wrote:
       | A legal question here: are we allowed to shoot down a drone that
       | snoops over our house?
        
       | superultra wrote:
       | My good friend works as an insurance agent. According to him,
       | insurers are dropping customers based on _anything_ right now.
       | It's caused chaos in the agency business, particularly in certain
       | states.
       | 
       | My bet is aerial images are just one way of many that they're
       | dropping customers.
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | > If your roof is 20 years old and one hailstorm is going to take
       | it off,
       | 
       | It amazes me that people in the US would even consider installing
       | a roof that would only last 20 years.
       | 
       | In the UK, you wouldn't consider reroofing anything that your
       | grandparents remember being installed. Ie. Stuff doesn't get
       | reroofed till it's 100 years old. Even then, you'll normally
       | inspect and only replace the damaged bits.
       | 
       | My 350 year old house still has part of its original roof and
       | slate tiles etc.
        
         | hikingsimulator wrote:
         | The weather in the US can be wild compared to what Western
         | Europe is used to. England doesn't have to deal with the same
         | events.
        
           | rvba wrote:
           | Those Ukrainian concrete buildings can take a bomb and still
           | stand...
        
         | zwayhowder wrote:
         | My house is about 100 years old and still has the original
         | concrete tile roof, with a stack of spare tiles under the house
         | ready if needed.
         | 
         | An extension that was done in the 1980s has had to have its
         | roof replaced once already due to what I have to assume was
         | poor workmanship by the builder.
        
         | EligibleDecoy wrote:
         | It's called "money." That is the reason. Slate roofs are common
         | in the UK, and using synthetic slate is $7-12/sqft, whereas
         | bitumen/asphalt shingles which are common in the USA cost
         | $0.50-$1.00/sqft. Average home in the USA is 2,200 sq ft with a
         | roof size of 1,700 sq ft. So $1,700 vs $11,900 is quite a
         | difference (and that was being most generous, excluding
         | installation costs, etc) So basically, average person who owns
         | a house has a big house, and big roofs are already expensive.
         | Regardless of wanting to get a high quality roof that would
         | last more than 30 years, that requires capital - more than the
         | average owner really has access too. Sources:
         | https://www.architecturaldigest.com/reviews/roofing/slate-ro...
         | https://www.architecturaldigest.com/reviews/roofing/shingle-...
         | https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/average-square-footage-...
         | https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/roofing-stats/
        
           | sologoub wrote:
           | Materials may cost that, but you are not getting a roof
           | replaced for $1,700. Maybe $17,000 and even then it's pushing
           | it on the coasts especially. Labor and other overhead costs
           | have really gone up and contractors don't want to deal with
           | small jobs. Sad really.
           | 
           | I've never seen slate roofs in California, so not sure if
           | these are to code here. We looked at metal and other
           | materials, but the problem is the weight is different, so now
           | you are engaging an engineer to evaluate structure,
           | submitting plans, dealing with code updates. Or just new
           | asphalt shingles every 15-20 years. The payoff isn't there
           | and folks don't tend to keep houses for generations, unlike
           | in the UK.
        
         | majormajor wrote:
         | Different types of storm are one thing.
         | 
         | I think the biggest difference, though, is that the
         | stereotypical single family US home of the 19th/20th century US
         | expansion is on a large plot of land and has - so far - been
         | one to get remodeled/expanded/revised several times in a
         | hundred years. Houses are generally treated as mutable things,
         | and people also often expect to move within a few decades,
         | spending more to put in something that will hold up a hundred
         | years instead of twenty seems foolhardy to many. If you sell it
         | the buyer will likely want a cosmetic refresh; if you keep it,
         | you likely will too.
        
         | IggleSniggle wrote:
         | If you think that's wild, consider that the standard practice
         | in Japan is to buy land and build new...even if that means
         | tearing down the building that is currently built there. As a
         | result, buildings are built more according to the rules of
         | fashion, and building to last longer than the current occupant
         | would seem like a foolhardy waste of money.
        
         | duped wrote:
         | No one is building homes to last 150 years in the United
         | States, and very rarely do people want to buy homes built a
         | century ago.
         | 
         | Where I live we call a century-old home a "tear down" because
         | it's probably in horrible condition. There are a handful in my
         | neighborhood but they get sold at a discount, usually for new
         | construction.
        
       | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
       | Works where archive.ph is blocked:
       | 
       | https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?d=1812931943850&w=GaxRXZW2Vc...
        
       | dbg31415 wrote:
       | I think this is fine, BUT...
       | 
       | I think they should have to give people time to fix the problem
       | before dropping them.
       | 
       | A neighbor literally just got a letter in the mail, "We think
       | your trees are over your roof. Policy cancelled immediately."
       | 
       | There should be a warning period, "Hey we saw this, and if you
       | don't fix it in 90 days we'll have to drop you."
       | 
       | Insurance companies are free to do inspections, but there's still
       | the stress that getting a notice like that does to someone.
       | 
       | These days, who even reads letters from insurance companies in
       | the mail?! I mean, I just chuck anything with a logo in the
       | recycling.
       | 
       | And, from what I can tell, the insurance company dropped my
       | neighbor when they sent the letter... so he didn't even know he
       | wasn't insured until he got the letter.
       | 
       | Anyway... these companies aren't your friends. They're all out to
       | screw you.
       | 
       | USAA screwed me over bad recently, to the tune of nearly $300k...
       | they forced me to use their contractor (or we won't cover your
       | temp housing), said not to worry and promised me a "5 year
       | workmanship warranty" on the work done by their contractor... but
       | when the contractor was utter shit, they put me through their
       | mediation, where their mediator said, "Yeah all this work done by
       | the contractor is junk, it all has to be re-done... if they don't
       | fix it, we'll eat their lunch!" but ultimately they didn't
       | enforcing any of that with the contractor and let the contractor
       | off without any consequences -- even insisted I pay the
       | contractor. "Oh you had no right to expect the work would be
       | professionally done..." the contractor said in court. It was all
       | total BS. And they said, "USAA may promise you one thing, but
       | contract we have means we aren't liable for any damages to your
       | house, 35-foot trees we killed, foundations we cracked, garage
       | doors we backed into, things our endless stream of disorganized
       | day-laborers stole, etc..." USAA's mediation process was really
       | just a play to run out the statue of limitations on the contract
       | too, I felt. =P
       | 
       | Live and learn... but insurance companies are heartless bastards.
       | You can't trust them, and even the "good" ones will screw you if
       | they can. Tell you one thing, and do another...
       | 
       | If you have a flood, call your lawyer first, the insurance
       | company second, and the water mitigation folks third. Get it all
       | in writing, take more photos than you ever thought necessary, and
       | hope you have an adjuster who isn't having a crappy day that day.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-04-06 23:00 UTC)