[HN Gopher] Century-old stone "tsunami stones" dot Japan's coast...
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       Century-old stone "tsunami stones" dot Japan's coastline (2015)
        
       Author : janandonly
       Score  : 146 points
       Date   : 2024-04-01 10:22 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.smithsonianmag.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.smithsonianmag.com)
        
       | pintxo wrote:
       | We are bound to repeat the errors of our ancestors when we forget
       | the lessons they paid for with blood, sweat and tears. Hence why
       | I am afraid of the passing of those who lived through the
       | 1930/40s. I seems we are quickly forgetting lots of what humanity
       | learned during those years.
        
         | dartos wrote:
         | Why do you think that?
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | For one thing, the loosening of the wall between investment
           | banking and deposit banking, which played a role in the 2008
           | near-collapse. We built that wall after the Great Depression
           | showed that it was necessary. But around 2000, people forgot
           | why, and the banks pushed for it to be removed so they could
           | make more money.
        
         | makeitdouble wrote:
         | These lessons aren't forgotten, Japan is as aware of its
         | geography as the Netherlands are of theirs.
         | 
         | Instead tradeoffs are made.
         | 
         | The same way people near forests get their house burned down
         | but rebuild at the same place because they can afford it. Or we
         | deplete underground water because stopping it would be an
         | uphill political battle etc.
         | 
         | I can't imagine any recent catastrophe where the core cause of
         | it would be sheer ignorance of the potential for risk.
        
           | thih9 wrote:
           | About "I can't imagine any recent catastrophe where the core
           | cause of it would be sheer ignorance of the potential for
           | risk.", there are a lot of recent examples. E.g.:
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surfside_condominium_collaps.
           | ..
           | 
           | > The problems had been reported in 2018 and noted as "much
           | worse" in April 2021.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint_water_crisis
           | 
           | > Prior to August 2014, additional chlorine had been added to
           | eliminate bacteria from the Flint River. (...) Following this
           | test, the MDEQ placed Flint on violation notice but did not
           | reveal the information to residents until January 2015.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grenfell_Tower_fire
           | 
           | > Both the aluminium-polyethylene cladding and the PIR
           | insulation plates failed fire safety tests conducted after
           | the fire, according to the police.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Beirut_explosion
           | 
           | > A cargo of 2,750 tonnes of [ammonium nitrate] (equivalent
           | to around 1.1 kilotons of TNT) had been stored in a warehouse
           | without proper safety measures for the previous six years
           | after having been confiscated by Lebanese authorities from
           | the abandoned ship MV Rhosus.
        
         | xyzelement wrote:
         | We do this all over the place. For example, there's the idea
         | that whatever warnings and suggestions are in the Bible are
         | obsolete because we as moderns know better. EG "in the past
         | they needed religion because of X but not we don't."
         | 
         | But the idea is flawed in that if the Bible wrote 3000 years
         | ago about certain virtues and dangers, presumably it is because
         | they had seen what the opposite looks like and thought it was
         | important to codify and pass forward that knowledge in a way
         | that had a shot of being still read thousands of years later.
         | 
         | In other words, our idea to discard the ideas in the Bible is
         | not novel, it is perhaps the same idea that has led to disaster
         | millennia ago that caused the Bible to be what it is to begin
         | with.
         | 
         | It is similar to looking at a "tsunami stone" and saying "why
         | would I heed advice of someone who has never seen a microwave
         | oven when I have modern science."
        
           | simion314 wrote:
           | You mean what? That if we sin (like you know all that giant
           | list of outdated ways to sin like touching a woman when she
           | is menstruating) there will be a giant rain and we will
           | drawn? So did you made your giant boat or first you need to
           | wait for God to tell you to do it in a dream?
           | 
           | Sorry , but some people will not follow those outdated rules
           | and also worship a extremely cruel genocidal inhuman God, if
           | my sin will cause you to have to build a boat to save
           | yourself sorry but I don't care.
        
             | its_ethan wrote:
             | I think if you gave an honest effort at interpreting what
             | he said, you'd find that he's saying there's a reason
             | religion has survived as long as it has.
             | 
             | He's not claiming that your actions are going to cause a
             | biblical flood - that's something you're projecting on to
             | him and, in my opinion, just feels like mockery for the
             | sake of mockery.
             | 
             | He's suggesting that there are generation-spanning lessons
             | that had been learned, both ethical and practical, that
             | made their way into scriptures. Not all the lessons in the
             | Bible (or other religious text) are going to be pertinent
             | to the modern day. To say it contains nothing of value, and
             | that nothing can be learned from, it proves his point
             | exactly.
        
               | simion314 wrote:
               | So your point is that there is a chance that soem
               | microscopic parts in the Bible contain good lessons? I
               | agree, some children stories also have good lesions.
               | 
               | The fact that religion survived or spread does not prove
               | what you imply it proves, it was an useful tool for the
               | powerful to keep the poor in check like
               | 
               | 1 Bible says to pay your taxes
               | 
               | 2 Bible says that is OK to be poor because you will be
               | rewarded later
               | 
               | 3 Bible says that violence is bad so do not attack your
               | lord and try to make justice on Earth, you will get your
               | justice in the next realm.
               | 
               | And so on, a very good tool to manipulate people.
        
             | xyzelement wrote:
             | I think you're misreading what I am saying and injecting
             | some extra anger.
             | 
             | To use a simple example of what I meant - in the west, the
             | secular section of society has below-replacement fertility.
             | In other words, for whatever reason that group is slowly
             | dying off. I hate to say this as someone who was secular
             | most of my life but I think it's objectively true (do you
             | disagree?)
             | 
             | Meanwhile religious folks live in the same world as we do
             | yet somehow are able to maintain 2.5 to 3.5 fertility rate
             | (this is in the US) depending on which version of the
             | "homicidal inhuman G-d" they believe in.
             | 
             | This suggests to me that somewhere in that "religious"
             | operating system is encoded immunity to things that are
             | slowly killing off the unreligious right now. That's the
             | kind of thing I was talking about in my post - we should be
             | very careful about discarding that.
        
               | martinpw wrote:
               | > To use a simple example of what I meant - in the west,
               | the secular section of society has below-replacement
               | fertility. In other words, for whatever reason that group
               | is slowly dying off.
               | 
               | Except that the secular section is also replenished by
               | children of the religious becoming secular, which
               | currently seems to be outweighing the relative birthrate
               | differences and is causing that secular section to be
               | increasing as a percentage of the population.
        
               | MeImCounting wrote:
               | "Looking at the U.S. public as a whole, however, the
               | answer to the question of whether more education is
               | correlated with less religion appears to be yes. Among
               | all U.S. adults, college graduates are considerably less
               | likely than those who have less education to say religion
               | is "very important" in their lives: Fewer than half of
               | college graduates (46%) say this, compared with nearly
               | six-in-ten of those with no more than a high school
               | education (58%)."
               | 
               | I am sure you know of the correlation between affluent
               | people having fewer children and highly educated people
               | tending to be more affluent. I dont think its
               | particularly mysterious or confusing why secular
               | populations have a lower fertility rate. It should be
               | pretty obvious at a glance.
               | 
               | Religion is a lot like conservatism in that it provides a
               | self affirming world view that relies on ethics from
               | centuries past. I am sure there are many highly
               | democratic, rich and ethical conservatives and religious
               | types but generally these traits are indicators of the
               | opposite. There is a reason the past century of progress
               | has allowed such great leaps in education, quality of
               | life etc while being accompanied by an ever decreasing
               | level of religiosity.
        
           | callalex wrote:
           | I'll be sure to tell that to my gay friends, my female
           | friends who don't just shut up and submit, and anybody who
           | puts cheese on a hotdog.
        
             | its_ethan wrote:
             | Make sure you don't also forget to throw the baby out with
             | the bathwater
        
               | callalex wrote:
               | As soon as you are picking and choosing, how are you
               | adhering to any supposed wisdom provided by the divine?
        
               | its_ethan wrote:
               | I'd suggest using your best judgement - no one here is
               | advocating for orthodoxy. Times have changed over the
               | last 2-3000 years, and things that were once practical
               | may not be anymore.
               | 
               | I think you might be assuming that the only
               | interpretation of religious text is that they are all-or-
               | nothing affairs, across the board. One of the core tenets
               | to Christianity is the recognition that everyone is going
               | to sin (or not "adhere to the supposed wisdom of the
               | divine" as you put it) and that they will still be
               | forgiven.
        
             | bregma wrote:
             | Wait, I though the cheesemakers are blessed?
             | 
             | What if it's Whiz?
        
               | k12sosse wrote:
               | I think it's because pork and cow products
        
           | Nevermark wrote:
           | > presumably it is because they had seen what the opposite
           | looks like
           | 
           | Ouch. "Presumably" isn't a logical proposition. Not even
           | close.
           | 
           | I am sure there is wisdom in the different religious
           | heritages. But the religious heritages that lasted were able
           | to do so using a fair amount of practices and beliefs aimed
           | at carrying along commitment to that heritage, as much or
           | more than general wisdom (which has value beyond the
           | religion).
           | 
           | (Not dismissing the value anyone gets from their practices
           | and beliefs, where they don't negatively impact others or
           | treat non-believers dismissively.)
        
             | its_ethan wrote:
             | Who said he was making a logical proposition? He's
             | speculating on an idea - or said another way, he is
             | presuming...
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | If you are going to make a point based on "presuming",
               | you are not just presuming. You are suggesting an
               | implication.
               | 
               | We can all presume, imagine, confabulate. But those are
               | not a good basis for making broad points.
        
             | anjel wrote:
             | Its a very short list of things people won't appropriate in
             | the pursuit of power
        
           | makeitdouble wrote:
           | The Bible is obsolete because the saner parts have been
           | extracted and integrated into either the law system (e.g. the
           | marriage system in the west) or education and social values,
           | and have been refined other centuries of discussion and
           | challenges to come up with a set of rules and principles that
           | can work for our current population density and life style.
           | 
           | And in particular these rules and principles will continue to
           | evolve, where the Bible wont.
           | 
           | What remains proper to the Bible are the funky bits, the
           | outright offensive parts and anachronistic advices.
        
       | thih9 wrote:
       | > Aneyoshi's tsunami stone is the only one found that explicitly
       | describes where to build houses
       | 
       | As for others, "Some act as monuments, giving death tolls from
       | past tsunamis or marking mass graves of the victims. Others offer
       | more direct advice. A tsunami stone in Kesennuma, a city in the
       | Miyagi Prefecture, reads: 'Always be prepared for unexpected
       | tsunamis. Choose life over your possessions and valuables.'" -
       | source: https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/tsunami-stones
        
         | kurthr wrote:
         | If you find coral deposited more than 100ft above sea level,
         | it's another marker of danger... although perhaps on a longer
         | time scale.
         | 
         | Hawaii has several examples of this (coral found at sites over
         | 500ft) from what are assumed to be Mega-tsunami.
         | 
         | https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1610#:~:text=O...
         | .
        
           | thih9 wrote:
           | > another marker of danger
           | 
           | Note that tsunami stones, except one, are not markers of
           | danger, at least not in a precise, spatial sense. They're
           | like memorial plaques, listing past casualties or marking
           | gravesites. See grandparent comment.
        
       | barqawiz wrote:
       | The tsunami stones of Japan serve as a reminder of the timeless
       | battle between human memory and nature's fury.
        
         | peterleiser wrote:
         | "History shows again and again how nature points out the folly
         | of men" -- Godzilla, Blue Oyster Cult
        
           | card_zero wrote:
           | "Oh no, there goes Tokyo" -- Godzilla, Blue Oyster Cult
        
         | themaninthedark wrote:
         | Yeah but that is what makes humans go. The fact we take risks.
        
       | frozenlettuce wrote:
       | In 2011 almost 1k people died after heavy rains in Brazil that
       | caused a whole valley to be flooded (surrounding mountain ranges
       | canalized massive amounts of rainfall into it). On Street View it
       | is possible to see how high the water went, by looking at the
       | stains in the walls
       | https://www.google.com/maps/@-22.3974509,-43.0875373,3a,26.2...
       | Sadly the region is repopulated again - a mix of people building
       | houses to rent to unaware folks, people unwilling to leave behind
       | decades of work, and general faith that they will survive if
       | that's God's will.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2011_Rio_de_Janeiro_fl...
        
         | helsinkiandrew wrote:
         | People have moved into houses built on the "Love Canal" toxic
         | dump in Niagara unaware of its history as probably the worst
         | toxic waste catastrophe in the US:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Canal
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/nyregion/love-canal-toxic...
         | (archive: https://archive.ph/UFJ96)
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | Seattle turned a creosote saturated lakefront area into a
           | city park. And then had to shut it down within a year, scrape
           | all the topsoil off to a deeper depth and replace it.
           | 
           | There are actual creosote superfund sites in Puget Sound,
           | from railroad tie manufacture. For some reason the gasworks
           | weren't one, even though they are a point source of the
           | stuff.
        
             | divbzero wrote:
             | Gas Works Park is the Seattle city park referenced above:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_Works_Park
             | 
             | https://www.seattletimes.com/life/50-years-since-gas-
             | works-p...
             | 
             | The cleanup effort is still ongoing:
             | 
             | https://ecology.wa.gov/blog/june-2023/cleaning-up-cleanup-
             | of...
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | In the southern Midwest and in a few of the arid states, there
         | are areas where flash flooding is a problem. In a heavy
         | rainstorm, the shape of the watershed is such that most of the
         | water shows up at a river or stream bed as a concentrated
         | pulse. That can be particularly dangerous in a seasonal stream
         | bed, because you are more likely to have people in a dry stream
         | bed than a wet one. Of course you also have the problem of
         | people crossing a dry bed and not being able to cross back
         | until the rains stop.
         | 
         | There are some famous videos of people getting caught by flash
         | floods in the Middle East as well. The return of the rains
         | seems to have become a spectator sport and people get too
         | close.
        
       | stuff4ben wrote:
       | > "It takes about three generations for people to forget. Those
       | that experience the disaster themselves pass it to their children
       | and their grandchildren, but then the memory fades,"
       | 
       | Some similarities to lessons from the 1918 flu epidemic that we
       | relearned in 2020. We should build some "COVID stones" so we
       | don't forget.
        
         | jstanley wrote:
         | What are the lessons from COVID?
        
           | SandalsAndSocks wrote:
           | I think COVID (and the 2020 events, especially in the USA - I
           | was living in Minneapolis at that time, so I might be biased)
           | increased mental health awareness. For everyone, but
           | especially for "essential workers".
           | 
           | Supply chain improvements have been made to increase
           | diversification and resilience.
           | 
           | There was a lot of individualism to cast a shadow, but also
           | cooperation and solidarity was shining on a small scale
           | (hobbyist 3d-printing and donating shields and face mask
           | relief thingies), but also globally.
           | 
           | Without getting into the healthcare and technology
           | advancements we accomplished as a species.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | I guarantee you stock prices will go up in ten years when
             | new CEOs dismantle all that redundancy in order to improve
             | profit margins for two quarters.
        
           | huytersd wrote:
           | The best things that came from COVID is increased WFH and
           | mRNA vaccines.
        
           | stuff4ben wrote:
           | For me, it's being prepared essentially. Having a supply of
           | masks, toilet paper, meds, emergency supplies, etc.
        
           | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
           | I came out of it fine. I wish some other people had learned:
           | 
           | - That a respiratory disease can spread quickly before you
           | show symptoms, and kill millions
           | 
           | - That even though the government is wrong a lot, sometimes
           | they're right about important things
           | 
           | - That you don't get to defect from polite society one day
           | and then whine about being an outcast the next. Of course I'm
           | mad at people who refused to take any precautions at all.
           | They made things worse.
        
             | themaninthedark wrote:
             | Here are my takeaways:
             | 
             | - The government will lie to you because it is not
             | prepared.
             | 
             | - They will then spin on a dime with no consequences and
             | all those who were towing the line will switch with them.
             | 
             | - Those who follow the government's direction will
             | ostracize people in both cases and doesn't matter because
             | they are "right".
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Chaos helps no one. It's why even the democratic world
               | has martial law.
               | 
               | We may be wrong together but at least we are together.
               | Having people running in three directions at once will
               | get everyone killed in wartime or disaster. Once the
               | avalanche starts it is too late for the pebbles to vote.
        
               | themaninthedark wrote:
               | I strongly disagree; People have agency, rocks and
               | geological forces do not.
               | 
               | >We may be wrong together but at least we are together.
               | 
               | Is a great way to get everyone killed.
               | 
               | We, in the west love to tout how our diversity and free
               | thinking makes us better than those who do not have those
               | values. What I saw were a bunch of countries that wished
               | they could rule the populace in the same manner as China
               | and Saudi Arabia.
               | 
               | If we can not uphold our values when we face
               | difficulties, then they are not values.
               | 
               | You speak of martial law and preventing chaos. Envision
               | the outcry and response if Trump had enacted such a
               | policy in early February when members of the Democratic
               | Party were encouraging people to gather in crowds to show
               | support for Chinese New Year?
        
               | numpad0 wrote:
               | I'm not so sure. To me it seems people just could not
               | stand masks to the point it actually created ongoing
               | planetary scale mental health crisis. :shrug:.
        
             | mistermann wrote:
             | Is it acceptable to get mad at all suboptimal behaviors
             | during that debacle, or only a subset of them? And if a
             | subset: who decides, how do they decide, and who made the
             | decision that this is the obligatory structure that we all
             | must adopt without being asked for agreement?
        
             | OCASMv2 wrote:
             | > That even though the government is wrong a lot, sometimes
             | they're right about important things
             | 
             | They weren't right during the pandemic though. From
             | initially refusing to acknowledge the situation to lying
             | and cohercing people into taking untested injections whose
             | side effects on the population remain unknown, and of
             | course censoring and character assassinating anyone who
             | dared rise any objections against its conduct. And lets not
             | forget actively avoiding finding out the origin of the
             | virus because it wasn't politically convenient during an
             | election year.
        
               | wewtyflakes wrote:
               | This does not seem to disprove the statement of "That
               | even though the government is wrong a lot, sometimes
               | they're right about important things".
        
               | OCASMv2 wrote:
               | In the context of the pandemic response, without any
               | specifics on what they got right I think it does.
        
               | wewtyflakes wrote:
               | To disprove "That even though the government is wrong a
               | lot, sometimes they're right about important things", you
               | would have to prove that the government is wrong _all_
               | the time about important things. You just mentioned some
               | things you think the government got wrong, but that is
               | covered by the clause "That even though the government is
               | wrong a lot" anyway. So it then just seems you wanted to
               | soapbox about covid and governments, even if that isn't
               | your intent.
        
               | OCASMv2 wrote:
               | In the context "lessons we learned from covid that we
               | shouldn't forget", "the government is sometimes right
               | about important things" cannot be one of them without
               | specifics on what is it they supposedly got right.
        
               | wewtyflakes wrote:
               | How about wearing masks, minimizing in-person
               | interactions, and funding medical research, during the
               | height of the pandemic? Those seem reasonable.
        
               | OCASMv2 wrote:
               | > wearing masks
               | 
               | Reasonable at first. Once it was known that the virus is
               | transmitted via aerosols then forcing masks was the wrong
               | thing to do, specially on children. Useless and damaging.
               | 
               | > minimizing in-person interactions
               | 
               | What benefit did it achieve? As a quarantine it was too
               | leaky and it also led to mass psychological distress.
               | 
               | > funding medical research
               | 
               | What medical research? For some reason, the most obvious
               | approach, repurposed drugs, was nowhere in sight. If
               | anything demonizing it was the official policy (ie. the
               | smear campaign against ivermectin).
        
               | wewtyflakes wrote:
               | > Useless and damaging.
               | 
               | This seems like a ridiculous thing to say; both useless
               | _and_ damaging? Even if one of these things were true,
               | they can't _both_ be true.
               | 
               | > What benefit did it achieve?
               | 
               | Minimizing the spread of covid.
               | 
               | > What medical research?
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed
               | 
               | > the most obvious approach, repurposed drugs, was
               | nowhere in sight
               | 
               | Didn't the J&J vaccine use a more traditional approach?
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janssen_COVID-19_vaccine
               | 
               | Also, people tried repurposing drugs (see
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin#COVID-19).
               | 
               | So your claim of "nowhere in sight" is incorrect.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | > Reasonable at first. Once it was known that the virus
               | is transmitted via aerosols then forcing masks was the
               | wrong thing to do, specially on children. Useless and
               | damaging.
               | 
               | And that's the reason we have governments for. So that
               | people like you can't do unlimited damage. You can
               | privately hate the government, but as long as you follow
               | the rules, the damage is contained.
               | 
               | Masks saved people, including children:
               | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9968482/
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | We had infrastructure that would handle a pandemic and
               | that fuckface traitorous loser dismantled it.
        
               | OCASMv2 wrote:
               | What specifically would have been different with that
               | infrastructure in place?
        
               | snakeyjake wrote:
               | >cohercing people into taking untested injections
               | 
               | The vaccines were extremely well-tested and anyone saying
               | they weren't is either lying or was lied to by a liar.
               | 
               | They did not follow the typical drug approval process.
               | 
               | That does not mean they were not tested.
               | 
               | I was one of the test subjects.
        
               | OCASMv2 wrote:
               | > The vaccines were extremely well-tested and anyone
               | saying they weren't is either lying or was lied to by a
               | liar.
               | 
               | Starting human trials before animal trials were finished
               | is not what I'd call "extremely well-tested".
               | 
               | The standard testing procedure takes years. These
               | injections were forced upon hundreds of millions of
               | people after only a few months of testing, and that's
               | even assuming that what little testing was done was done
               | properly.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | > From initially refusing to acknowledge the situation to
               | lying and cohercing people into taking untested
               | injections whose side effects on the population remain
               | unknown
               | 
               | You're spewing bullshit right here. COVID vaccines went
               | through clinical trials and had a great safety profile.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | The worst was a local meetup member who worked for a
             | company that either made vaccines or worked in virology and
             | still didn't get his vaccinations. He had all these
             | bullshit reasons he dressed up as science. He got screamed
             | at by the oldest person in the group and stopped showing
             | up. But goddamn.
             | 
             | Vaccines don't work on everyone who takes them, and they
             | tend to be less effective in the elderly. Every one of
             | those people are counting on the rest of us to not bring
             | shit to their doorsteps.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | Funny. What appear to be the "lessons of COVID" appear to be
           | a reinforcement of people's own beliefs. One could just as
           | well "learn from COVID" that:                   The
           | government is correct when they request large-scale public
           | health interventions and you should go along with it when it
           | makes large scale interventions since some of these require
           | coordination on an urgent time-scale.
           | 
           | and just as well that                   Paternalism does not
           | work. Providing diktats from the throne result in some
           | quarter of the population revolting against the idea, causing
           | coordination failure.
           | 
           | Whether one chooses the former or the latter seem entirely
           | dependent on one's preconceived beliefs.
        
             | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
             | And also on whether or not one is aware of the number of
             | deaths avoided by government action, and the documented
             | existence of disinformation networks which were - and still
             | are - promoting extremes of polarised social division and
             | self-harm.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | It is perhaps worth noting:
               | 
               | - it is not possible to be aware of aware of the number
               | of deaths avoided by government action, because counter-
               | factual reality is not accessible; humans typically
               | substitute a simulation in response, but often do not
               | know that has occurred
               | 
               | - there is no requirement for documentation ("documented
               | existence of disinformation networks") to be accurate
               | 
               | - in some cases, and for various reasons (choice of
               | inadequate variable types in one's analysis/cognition,
               | ie: "existence", cultural norms), it is not possible for
               | documentation to be accurate and comprehensive, and this
               | is one of those times
               | 
               | - in some cases it is not possible to apply this sort of
               | level of rigor, this seems to almost always be one of
               | those times (all people on all sides are engaged in
               | deceit, intentionally or not), at least so far in
               | humanity's evolution
               | 
               | - In most serious organizations, an event of this scale
               | would prompt a post incident analysis, there seems to be
               | little sign that anyone considers this event serious
               | enough to justify such an analysis (COVID seems to have
               | triggered one of the many paradoxes in the system in that
               | it is super serious, but also not, _simultaneously_ )
               | 
               | - this list is far from exhaustive
               | 
               | - humans will have very interesting (and typically
               | predictable) reactions to the contents of this list, or
               | others like it (the system is susceptible to a list based
               | attack?)
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Some people got twisted up in Fauci's stated estimates
               | being off by a factor of two, and people using bad math
               | to say they were off by a lot more than that.
               | 
               | When only 25% of the population has been exposed you
               | expect 1/4 of the projected death toll. Then multiply by
               | 2 and now you're pushing an order of magnitude. But what
               | we are seeing is a pretty steady .9% mortality rate for
               | people who are exposed.
               | 
               | Meanwhile the fatality rate for this last flu season was
               | 1/16th of COVID (which is another comparison they liked
               | to make).
               | 
               | The problem with 1% is that almost everyone will know
               | someone who died. But they took it like the odds of
               | winning the lottery. Let's just gamble that's a small
               | number!
        
               | lurking15 wrote:
               | > But what we are seeing is a pretty steady .9% mortality
               | rate for people who are exposed.
               | 
               | The distribution of risk is almost entirely concentrated
               | on people who have so few years left in their life
               | compared to the rest of humanity whereas the burden of
               | all the interventions falls squarely on the young, who DO
               | propagate humanity into the future, and who are at
               | essentially no major risk.
               | 
               | Representing covid as a .9% generalized risk is nothing
               | short of willful (self?) deception.
        
             | veidr wrote:
             | I don't think so -- in this specific case (and probably you
             | can extrapolate to some degree in a generic way) one of
             | those viewpoints has proven to be more
             | successful/adaptive/helpful than the other. Even though
             | they are both "true" to a degree.
             | 
             | I mean, there are all sorts of confounding factors, but in
             | a rough sense we are now able to look at various
             | populations (countries, states, or even friend/acquaintance
             | cohorts) that leaned into one or the other of those
             | positions, and compare how they fared.
        
               | padjo wrote:
               | Are you aware of any good studies that have done this and
               | reached strong conclusions?
        
           | eej71 wrote:
           | I agree with what I think is the implied premise of your
           | question - which - I'd make explicit as - its not clear we
           | can agree what the lessons even were?
           | 
           | For example, was it good that we closed parks? Remember when
           | sand was poured into skateparks? Or the parks in NYC were
           | padlocked? Was it good that we closed schools for so long?
           | Remember the amount of shaming that happened when some people
           | went to the beaches? Remember when the grocery stores had
           | arrows about which way the direction of the aisle went?
           | Remember how long we handed out bacteria wipes as though it
           | was spread through dirty surfaces?
           | 
           | I'm not sure us peons in society are the only ones who need
           | to learn lessons here.
        
           | wpietri wrote:
           | If you look at the flu seasons, I think one of the lessons is
           | that relatively modest behavioral and infrastructural changes
           | could radically reduce harm from respiration-transmitted
           | diseases. However I think it's a lesson that went mostly
           | unlearned.
           | 
           | The future I was expecting was a strong increase in
           | ventilation, widespread adoption of CO2 measurements in
           | public spaces (in the same way we measure temperature and
           | humidity now), and experiments with things like UV to reduce
           | disease particle viability. Along with behavioral changes,
           | like staying home when sick, some continued use of masking,
           | and use of mRNA techniques so people get something like
           | quarterly vaccines that cover all the diseases we're trying
           | to keep in check.
           | 
           | What I instead got was an anti-science politicization of
           | reasonable public health measures that 20 years ago would
           | have been inconceivable. And then a giant collective shrug
           | where we see plenty of ongoing death and a continuing rise of
           | long Covid such that we have millions partly or wholly
           | disabled. Including with brain fog, a symptom that I, as a
           | programmer, would fine particularly devastating.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | Two of my local haunts have UV lights and a number of
             | places have much better ventilation now. It's not every
             | place but it's some.
             | 
             | The other thing we should bring back are brass and silver
             | handles. Both of which can kill surface germs almost
             | instantly. It has to be unlaquered though and you'll find a
             | lot of brass coated in plastic to keep it from corroding.
        
         | musha68k wrote:
         | Time to do everything to keep the memories and learnings of
         | WWII alive. 79 years ~ 2.6 generations
        
           | mantas wrote:
           | Looking at drama around Ukraine war, it's already lost.
        
             | ekanes wrote:
             | I see the opposite. A nation state aggressively attempted
             | to take over another, and the world reacted swiftly and
             | largely in unison. The lesson seems learned, at least for
             | now. If the lesson had been lost, everyone would have done
             | nothing.
        
               | jewayne wrote:
               | Except half of Americans are rooting for Putin.
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | > Except half of Americans are rooting for Putin.
               | 
               | Both "half" and "rooting" are exaggerations. No need for
               | that. But yes, a depressing number of one party's
               | politicians are willing to use Ukraine foreign policy as
               | a domestic division issue.
        
               | jstanley wrote:
               | Doesn't it take 2 sides to make something a division
               | issue?
        
               | jewayne wrote:
               | Your mom milks babies for their blood.
               | 
               | Now, don't go and make this a division issue by
               | disagreeing with me.
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | Do you also think it takes two sides to start a war?
               | 
               | What on Earth was Ukraine thinking of by taking Russia's
               | bait and getting involved in its own invasion!
               | 
               | /light humor
        
               | jewayne wrote:
               | I do not feel that is an exaggeration whatsoever. About
               | half of Americans would prefer to see Russia win the war.
               | I think I'm getting downvoted for speaking the plain
               | truth.
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | > About half of Americans would prefer to see Russia win
               | the war.
               | 
               | My brother in pro-democracy, you are _literally_
               | exaggerating right now. If half the US adult population
               | people really wanted Russia to conquer Ukraine, you would
               | be able to easily cite polls showing it in rather stark
               | terms.
               | 
               | Yes, it's definitely become a red/blue partisan issue,
               | and yes, Republican "leadership" needs to be raked over
               | the coals for their extended support for the Emperor's
               | New Clothes, and yes, if Russia won they'd probably make
               | up a bunch of "this is fine" nonsense... However!--Even
               | if you assumed _every single person of any party_ who
               | thought  "the US gives too much aid" was _actually_ a
               | crypto-Putinist hiding their dark desires for an outright
               | Russian victory... Well, that 's still only 37%. [0]
               | 
               | That far-reaching assumption almost certainly wrong
               | through, especially since general sentiment toward Russia
               | has almost hit rock-bottom. [1] That's why nobody even
               | _bothers_ polling for  "which country would your rather
               | see win."
               | 
               | [0] https://apnews.com/article/poll-ukraine-aid-
               | congress-b772c97...
               | 
               | [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1642/russia.aspx
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | The NATO countries reacted in unison.
               | 
               | The rest of the world cares as much as we do about the
               | wars in Africa.
        
               | zdragnar wrote:
               | > the world reacted swiftly and largely in unison
               | 
               | The western world. Don't forget that the early economic
               | sanctions were largely ignored by the BRICS countries,
               | which make up ~45% of the world's population.
        
           | roughly wrote:
           | What's particularly worrying is the dwindling number of
           | people who've actually been in the presence of an atomic
           | detonation.
        
             | vanderZwan wrote:
             | Being in the presence of an atomic detonation will do that
             | to you, I suppose.
        
               | roughly wrote:
               | Yeah, there's a real sweet spot there - close enough to
               | really get the immensity, far enough away to tell people
               | about it.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | The last atomic test was in 1992, so we have some years
               | left.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | The rise of nazism in America says we are already too late.
           | We do tend to have slightly shorter memories than Europe.
           | Learn from our mistakes.
        
             | iamthirsty wrote:
             | > The rise of nazism in America says we are already too
             | late.
             | 
             | This isn't a new thing, unfortunately.
             | 
             | Given that the KKK has been around for 100+ years -- and
             | the fact that the Eugenics movement really started in the
             | United States[1] (so clearly so that Hitler mentions it in
             | Mein Kampf), Nazism & Hyper-Nationalism have been in and
             | out of fashion for over a century and we are still here.
             | 
             | [1]:https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-guarded-gate-
             | daniel-okr...
        
           | 1letterunixname wrote:
           | Yep. This is the average societal memory horizon. The
           | absolute cultural memory horizon tends to be roughly 250
           | years (10 generations) as that's about when most
           | civilizations fail. At least once every generation, there is
           | a moral or cultural test event that pushes that civilization
           | writ large closer to disorder or makes it stronger by
           | recovery, preparedness, and prevention.
        
         | DudeOpotomus wrote:
         | The Fourth Turning and his newer one, The Fourth Turning is
         | Here by Neil Howe goes into this phenomenon and how it shapes
         | society and humanity. It's roughly 80 years in length and
         | covers 4 generations of archetypes. Every society, every
         | culture, everywhere for as long as we know...
        
         | 1letterunixname wrote:
         | 1918 not-Spanish "Spanish" A/H1N1 flu _pandemic._
         | 
         | Pandemic commandments:
         | 
         | 0. Thou shalln't eat wild animals.
         | 
         | 1. Thou shalln't mix wild animals and animal agriculture.
         | 
         | 2. Better yet, thou shalln't eat any animals to prevent this
         | entire risk category.
        
       | helsinki wrote:
       | I'll never forget the first time I saw this phenomenon in
       | Miyakojima, Okinawa.
       | 
       | https://photos.app.goo.gl/uJwtiT34si7yK4C56
        
       | ngcc_hk wrote:
       | Should mark 2015 as this is old article. As there is a nuclear
       | melt down, guess the mark in history and memory is very
       | different.
        
       | logtempo wrote:
       | remind me of hunger stones :
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunger_stone
        
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