[HN Gopher] Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dom...
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       Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
        
       Author : MilnerRoute
       Score  : 44 points
       Date   : 2024-03-31 21:55 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
        
       | MilnerRoute wrote:
       | The title is from CNBC's home page -- which is also the title in
       | the title tag of the web page (and visible in the tabs).
       | 
       | Further down the page, CNBC has a less specific title -- that
       | "Tesla's awful quarter has Wall Street on edge ahead of delivery
       | numbers"
        
       | lesuorac wrote:
       | > Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the standard version of the SU7 will
       | sell for the equivalent of $30,408 in China, a price he
       | acknowledged would mean the company is losing money on each sale
       | 
       | Isn't dumping banned by the WTO?
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | Many US companies are also losing money on EV sales. I think
         | dumping is more specific than just losing money you have to be
         | selling in foreign markets for lower prices than you charge
         | locally.
         | 
         | "Ford is losing money on each EV it sells"
         | https://www.npr.org/2023/08/11/1193083777/ford-electric-vehi...
        
           | gnfargbl wrote:
           | Indeed:
           | 
           |  _> Dumping is, in general, a situation of international
           | price discrimination, where the price of a product when sold
           | in the importing country is less than the price of that
           | product in the market of the exporting country._
           | 
           | -- https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_info_e.htm#
           | :~....
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | Sorry edited that a few times, thanks for the link.
        
           | maxerickson wrote:
           | Are they losing money on the incremental production, or not
           | selling enough volume to cover development costs?
        
         | zztop44 wrote:
         | A Chinese company losing money on sales in China isn't dumping
         | and has nothing to do with the WTO.
        
         | impossiblefork wrote:
         | "Since 11 December 2019, the Appellate Body is no longer able
         | to deliver binding resolutions of trade disputes. Nor can it
         | guarantee the right to appellate review. New appointments to
         | the WTO's Appellate Body are blocked."
         | 
         | This is due to the US blocking appointments to the Appellate
         | Body. Basically the US does not want WTO rules to be binding,
         | and want to be able to invoke national security to override any
         | WTO rule without having this permit any kind of trade measures
         | in response.
         | 
         | Edit: I don't think this is necessarily terrible. The MFN rule
         | is a problem for countries that form close associations in
         | trade blocks, like the EU, so its destruction is probably good.
        
         | amou234 wrote:
         | Xiaomi isn't dumping (yet), but BYD is, and US is already
         | keenly aware of Chinese dumping of electric vehicles years ago,
         | that's why US currently has the 25 percent tax on Chinese made
         | autos that Trump started in 2018, and Biden has continued since
         | [1]. And that has so far prevented BYD and its Chinese EV peers
         | (90 makers so far, but looking like 2-3 bankruptcy each month)
         | from entering US market. Republican lawmakers and Trump are
         | also looking to apply a 100% tariffs [2]
         | 
         | Europe, the slow hare to US's rabbit, finally woke up in 2023,
         | but just barely. They kicked off an inquiry into tariffs on
         | Chinese EV vehicles in October 2023, and would take up to a
         | year to finish [3]. These tariffs looks to be retroactive, as
         | they have started requiring Chinese EV vehicles to be
         | registered [4]. Europe, albeit slow witted, probably isn't
         | going to willingly allow China to kill its own car industry,
         | especially since China is actively helping Russia in attacking
         | Europe.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/3/4/24087919/biden-
         | tariff-c...
         | 
         | [2] https://fortune.com/2024/03/16/trump-100-tariff-for-cars-
         | mad...
         | 
         | [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-
         | subsid...
         | 
         | [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-moves-slap-retroactive-
         | tar...
        
       | photonbeam wrote:
       | It's fairly easy to point at things that have annoyed customers
       | that they call features, like missing wheel stalks and poor
       | autowipers
        
         | Flyer4637 wrote:
         | The autowipers are so bad on my 3 lol. I have to manually
         | toggle them.
        
         | speedgoose wrote:
         | The CEO too. I know a few people who refuse to buy a Tesla
         | because of him.
         | 
         | People buy Volskwagen, Porsche, Ford or Renault cars without
         | thinking about the actions of the previous people attached to
         | the manufacturer.
        
           | fred_is_fred wrote:
           | Your friends have a point. Volkswagen to my knowledge isn't
           | currently actively spreading conspiracy theories or boosting
           | the voices of fascists.
        
             | Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote:
             | There was the whole diesel-gate thing with volkswagen which
             | was pretty shadey.
        
               | speedgoose wrote:
               | And the whole Nazi history.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen#History
        
               | fred_is_fred wrote:
               | Yes I am aware. Henry Ford was also problematic. There's
               | a difference between present day which will impact my
               | life and the lives of my kids and something that is 80
               | years old. I have gay family members and a daughter and I
               | worry about what this election cycle will do to both. VW
               | isn't going to change that, Musk might.
        
             | gnfargbl wrote:
             | Even more importantly from a strictly business point of
             | view, the CEO of VAG isn't telling his engineers to make
             | the customer experience significantly worse to save $50 of
             | parts on a $50k vehicle.
        
               | speedgoose wrote:
               | VW is saving money on stupid things on their vehicles.
               | Hard plastics, terrible buttons on the steering wheel,
               | tiny screens and bad sound systems on the default models
               | to invite you to pay more...
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | People also do things like travel to and buy products from
           | Germany without thinking about the actions of the previous
           | people running that country.
           | 
           | One difference is that a man in the high castle is running
           | Tesla _today_.
           | 
           | (...Not that I have a lot of love and goodwill for other
           | industrialists in the general.)
        
         | darth_avocado wrote:
         | The biggest problem has been that they stopped innovating ever
         | since the CEO decided his focus was needed more on an app he
         | found mildly annoying that he ended up buying accidentally
         | because he couldn't contain his bravado.
         | 
         | Model 3 and Model Y era had the momentum they needed and
         | instead of focusing on expanding to other segments or offering
         | more range of models, they decided they needed an impractical
         | truck. They could be building bespoke 500k luxury cars with
         | Rolls Royce or a 30k hatchback or a 40k crossover.
        
           | krapp wrote:
           | You really believe all of the innovation at Tesla was being
           | done by Musk? The cybertruck was _his baby._
        
       | xyst wrote:
       | I wonder if Bill Gates is still shorting TSLA [1].
       | 
       | [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-bill-gates-
       | super-m...
        
         | ta1243 wrote:
         | Tesla is overvalued to any rational player, but the market can
         | stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
         | 
         | Gates on the other hand can certainly stay solvent for longer
         | than you or me.
        
       | gravescale wrote:
       | I still have never understood the valuations. Sure, they'd make
       | sense if Tesla ended up being the only game in town, forever. But
       | even though they undoubtedly have been streets ahead in many
       | places for a long time and Western manufacturers have been caught
       | on the back foot, the Asian players are snapping at their heels,
       | and (some of) the Western brands are slowly waking up. And even
       | if they weren't, I don't see how Tesla would have been able to
       | dig a moat wide enough to last so long that a trillion dollar
       | valuation could be realised before they become just another EV
       | brand in the pack.
        
         | FireBeyond wrote:
         | Tesla is a Schrodinger, depending on the narrative needed:
         | 
         | They're David going against the Goliath of "the dinosaurs",
         | "legacy auto".
         | 
         | And then their fans like to remind people of the (IMHO
         | laughable) market cap. You know, the market cap that says Tesla
         | is worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia,
         | General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault,
         | Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi. COMBINED. But wait,
         | there's more, also worth more than all of these AND several
         | Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng.
        
         | bobthepanda wrote:
         | With the recent NACS deals they have basically also become
         | _the_ charging network of choice in North America, which is
         | certainly worth something.
        
           | peutetre wrote:
           | With North America slowing working toward a common EV plug
           | and CCS winning the charging standard war, North American EV
           | charging will become more like Europe. Charge any brand of EV
           | on any brand of charging network, just as nature intended. No
           | more vendor lock in.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | NACS is winning, not CCS.
        
               | peutetre wrote:
               | NACS is CCS. It's CCS type 3. It's why older Teslas can't
               | charge on NACS chargers without a retrofit. They can't
               | talk CCS without upgrades.
               | 
               | Don't get confused by the branding.
        
             | ta1243 wrote:
             | The lockin is at the charger level. Fill up with petrol?
             | Drive up, tap your card, fill up. At some places you fill
             | up then go into the shop and tap your card.
             | 
             | Electric? Drive up, work out which of the dozen of apps
             | there are, try to download it, hold your phone in the other
             | hand to try to get a signal, finally download it, then
             | register, sell your personal data, then finally you can try
             | to work out how to charge your car.
        
               | peutetre wrote:
               | More sensible infrastructure regulation in Europe.
               | They're mandating contactless payments on charger. No app
               | required: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-
               | news/electric-...
               | 
               | Even on Tesla's newer dispensers:
               | https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s
               | 
               | It's true that North America still has a long way to go
               | on EV infrastructure, but it will get there eventually.
        
         | yyyyz wrote:
         | Because once the valuations are proven incorrect they just sell
         | the company on to the next fool trying to justify the
         | valuation. Look at Twitter, complete failure of the company,
         | totally worthless but the legal system and media prop it up,
         | even though it's only ever lost money.
        
       | sschnei8 wrote:
       | Steering has gone out twice on a family member's Model Y. N=1
       | example but plenty of other companies now make EVs and they do a
       | decent job of it... shedding 29% still leaves the company at an
       | astronomical valuation, ~100bn larger market cap than Toyota.
        
         | dmbche wrote:
         | Also, steering-by-wire is not exclusive to electric cars, it's
         | common ICE's as well - so it's even more apalling to have
         | catastrophic steering failure on a new car, it's not the
         | bleeding edge of tech.
        
       | DustinBrett wrote:
       | The company is so far ahead that it doesn't matter as long as
       | they can keep executing on their plans. Not a popular opinion
       | right now because of the Musk hate, but Tesla is not like other
       | companies and Elon is not like other CEO's.
        
         | deadbabe wrote:
         | They are not far ahead. We've seen peak Tesla, competitors are
         | catching up fast.
        
           | DustinBrett wrote:
           | Tesla has no competition. Cars is a small part of what they
           | do.
        
             | hervature wrote:
             | Tesla's most recent 10-K (numbers in millions of $):
             | 
             | """
             | 
             | Automotive sales: 78,509
             | 
             | Automotive regulatory credits: 1,790
             | 
             | Automotive leasing: 2,120
             | 
             | Services and other: 8,319
             | 
             | Energy generation and storage segment revenue: 6,035
             | 
             | """
             | 
             | Which part are you referring to when you say cars is a
             | small part?
        
               | chimpanzee wrote:
               | > Which part are you referring to when you say cars is a
               | small part
               | 
               | The future.
               | 
               | (I'm a quick learner.)
        
             | sumedh wrote:
             | > Tesla has no competition.
             | 
             | Didnt Elon himself say that Chinese EVs are their biggest
             | competition right now.
        
         | peutetre wrote:
         | Far ahead in what?
        
           | DustinBrett wrote:
           | Building the future.
        
             | DonHopkins wrote:
             | Sheez. And brainwashing, apparently.
        
               | DustinBrett wrote:
               | Every time I hear one of you haters, I think the same
               | thing, fyi. The difference is I think about things when
               | they come out and you have your mind set on hating.
        
               | arcticbull wrote:
               | People will continue to call you out in this way because
               | when asked "what do you think they do better" you replied
               | with some handwaving nonsense. If you replied with some
               | specific points, ideally quantifiable and backed by data,
               | you would get quite a different response.
        
               | samtheprogram wrote:
               | This. "Building the future" is just asking for a
               | similarly lazy retort.
        
             | ideamotor wrote:
             | (tm)
        
             | jug wrote:
             | All companies and all individuals are part of building our
             | single future and our future is hardly a Tesla dominated
             | one.
        
             | alkonaut wrote:
             | Last time I checked there is basically zero revolutionary
             | things with Teslas cars, their battery tech, or
             | manufacturing processes. Whatever advantage they had in
             | range, charger network, manufacturing, side-businesses etc
             | at least superficially seems to be pretty marginal. Sure, a
             | marginal advantage can be huge in a competitive market, but
             | building the future sees to be a bit hyperbolic.
             | 
             | Oh, in the US they started off with revolutionizing the
             | buying experience. But that of course only worked because
             | the US dealer model was there to be disrupted. Elsewhere
             | that advantage didn't exist either.
        
         | lvl102 wrote:
         | So Tesla is not like other companies...that survived secular
         | changes. Tesla demographics changed quite a bit in the past
         | five years.
        
           | DustinBrett wrote:
           | Well I don't know what you mean by secular changes. I can't
           | speak to what has changed in the last 5 years as far as
           | staff. But they still seem to be planning big and thinking
           | the same way. They are the slow giant.
        
         | viraptor wrote:
         | It starts being less likely though. The plan was to make the
         | expensive models fund the mass production. The cheap versions
         | of 3 already happened, meanwhile other expensive brands got
         | higher level driver assist, and other cheap brands got both
         | lower cost and better quality of low end. They're months away
         | from not being ahead at this point and there's nothing
         | announced yet that could change it. What do you think they can
         | keep executing on?
         | 
         | They still have the charging network, but that's due to
         | everyone else failing more than them succeeding. At some point
         | someone else will overtake them too.
        
       | PreachSoup wrote:
       | It's just a matter of time. China is making ev like android
       | phones. Other car companies are also catching up. The high profit
       | margin of Tesla cannot last forever
        
         | amou234 wrote:
         | It's not a matter of time, cars and the car industry are
         | treated as national security. Chinese EV cars will be even more
         | tariffed in US and Europe in 2024/2025
        
           | PreachSoup wrote:
           | We were talking about Tesla's profit margin and evaluation in
           | the thread. Not sure if you replied to the wrong post
        
         | ansible wrote:
         | I'm just concerned about battery safety with Chinese EVs. I've
         | seen more than a few video clips of Chinese EVs just
         | spontaneously catching fire (not from an accident).
         | 
         | I would be more confident in owning a Chinese-made EV if it
         | conforms to appropriate battery safety standards, and that
         | those standards are enforced by USA regulations.
         | 
         | I'm sure at least half the problems with the Chinese EVs are
         | the inadequate regulatory environment created by the PRC.
        
       | gerdesj wrote:
       | "Investors are concerned about auto sales as the company faces
       | increased competition from China and disruptions in Europe."
       | 
       | Tesla have practically defined the market so far. They made EVs
       | cool, created a comparatively vast world wide charging
       | distribution network and so on. Now we have competition, proper
       | competition. Mind you some of it is a bit shag, but nonetheless
       | there is competition, and a lot of it is pretty good.
       | 
       | I drive a thing called a MG4. I went to school in Abingdon near
       | to where the Morris Garage originated. My Dad had an MG Midget,
       | back in the '60s. The car I drive is Chinese, it just has MG
       | plastered on it.
       | 
       | My MG4 (its the extended range version) has comparable range to
       | most of the current crop of EVs and is also comparably cheaper,
       | and somewhat smaller, so less space. Swings and roundabouts. My
       | point is that there is a lot more variety now than say five years
       | ago. There is Polestar (from Norway) and Volvo and ... and.
       | 
       | However, what all the johnny come lately's lack, which Tesla has,
       | is its charging network. They have lost their lead in style and
       | all that S3XY wankery - all the rest can do a reasonable job in
       | looking cool/menacing. They do have a lead in infrastructure and
       | should capitalise on it. I suggest opening it up to everyone and
       | expand as fast as they can possibly manage/acquire.
       | 
       | The real winners will be the energy suppliers. If you can ensure
       | you are the flogger of the hardware that consumes that energy
       | then its win/win. Swallow your pride: partner with everyone and
       | get them to brand their stuff as Tesla.
       | 
       | If Tesla manage to bugger this up (given their head start) then
       | they only have themselves to blame and the market will be
       | merciless.
        
         | gerdesj wrote:
         | Just in case I didn't spell it out:
         | 
         | ICE: You buy a Ford/Volvo/VAG and you run it on Shell, Esso, BP
         | etc EV: You buy a Tesla, power it with Tesla. Buy another EV -
         | power it with ... electricity
         | 
         | Tesla seem to have go this early on and then perhaps lost
         | focus.
        
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