[HN Gopher] Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dom...
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Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
Author : MilnerRoute
Score : 44 points
Date : 2024-03-31 21:55 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
| MilnerRoute wrote:
| The title is from CNBC's home page -- which is also the title in
| the title tag of the web page (and visible in the tabs).
|
| Further down the page, CNBC has a less specific title -- that
| "Tesla's awful quarter has Wall Street on edge ahead of delivery
| numbers"
| lesuorac wrote:
| > Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the standard version of the SU7 will
| sell for the equivalent of $30,408 in China, a price he
| acknowledged would mean the company is losing money on each sale
|
| Isn't dumping banned by the WTO?
| Retric wrote:
| Many US companies are also losing money on EV sales. I think
| dumping is more specific than just losing money you have to be
| selling in foreign markets for lower prices than you charge
| locally.
|
| "Ford is losing money on each EV it sells"
| https://www.npr.org/2023/08/11/1193083777/ford-electric-vehi...
| gnfargbl wrote:
| Indeed:
|
| _> Dumping is, in general, a situation of international
| price discrimination, where the price of a product when sold
| in the importing country is less than the price of that
| product in the market of the exporting country._
|
| -- https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_info_e.htm#
| :~....
| Retric wrote:
| Sorry edited that a few times, thanks for the link.
| maxerickson wrote:
| Are they losing money on the incremental production, or not
| selling enough volume to cover development costs?
| zztop44 wrote:
| A Chinese company losing money on sales in China isn't dumping
| and has nothing to do with the WTO.
| impossiblefork wrote:
| "Since 11 December 2019, the Appellate Body is no longer able
| to deliver binding resolutions of trade disputes. Nor can it
| guarantee the right to appellate review. New appointments to
| the WTO's Appellate Body are blocked."
|
| This is due to the US blocking appointments to the Appellate
| Body. Basically the US does not want WTO rules to be binding,
| and want to be able to invoke national security to override any
| WTO rule without having this permit any kind of trade measures
| in response.
|
| Edit: I don't think this is necessarily terrible. The MFN rule
| is a problem for countries that form close associations in
| trade blocks, like the EU, so its destruction is probably good.
| amou234 wrote:
| Xiaomi isn't dumping (yet), but BYD is, and US is already
| keenly aware of Chinese dumping of electric vehicles years ago,
| that's why US currently has the 25 percent tax on Chinese made
| autos that Trump started in 2018, and Biden has continued since
| [1]. And that has so far prevented BYD and its Chinese EV peers
| (90 makers so far, but looking like 2-3 bankruptcy each month)
| from entering US market. Republican lawmakers and Trump are
| also looking to apply a 100% tariffs [2]
|
| Europe, the slow hare to US's rabbit, finally woke up in 2023,
| but just barely. They kicked off an inquiry into tariffs on
| Chinese EV vehicles in October 2023, and would take up to a
| year to finish [3]. These tariffs looks to be retroactive, as
| they have started requiring Chinese EV vehicles to be
| registered [4]. Europe, albeit slow witted, probably isn't
| going to willingly allow China to kill its own car industry,
| especially since China is actively helping Russia in attacking
| Europe.
|
| [1] https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/3/4/24087919/biden-
| tariff-c...
|
| [2] https://fortune.com/2024/03/16/trump-100-tariff-for-cars-
| mad...
|
| [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-
| subsid...
|
| [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-moves-slap-retroactive-
| tar...
| photonbeam wrote:
| It's fairly easy to point at things that have annoyed customers
| that they call features, like missing wheel stalks and poor
| autowipers
| Flyer4637 wrote:
| The autowipers are so bad on my 3 lol. I have to manually
| toggle them.
| speedgoose wrote:
| The CEO too. I know a few people who refuse to buy a Tesla
| because of him.
|
| People buy Volskwagen, Porsche, Ford or Renault cars without
| thinking about the actions of the previous people attached to
| the manufacturer.
| fred_is_fred wrote:
| Your friends have a point. Volkswagen to my knowledge isn't
| currently actively spreading conspiracy theories or boosting
| the voices of fascists.
| Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote:
| There was the whole diesel-gate thing with volkswagen which
| was pretty shadey.
| speedgoose wrote:
| And the whole Nazi history.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen#History
| fred_is_fred wrote:
| Yes I am aware. Henry Ford was also problematic. There's
| a difference between present day which will impact my
| life and the lives of my kids and something that is 80
| years old. I have gay family members and a daughter and I
| worry about what this election cycle will do to both. VW
| isn't going to change that, Musk might.
| gnfargbl wrote:
| Even more importantly from a strictly business point of
| view, the CEO of VAG isn't telling his engineers to make
| the customer experience significantly worse to save $50 of
| parts on a $50k vehicle.
| speedgoose wrote:
| VW is saving money on stupid things on their vehicles.
| Hard plastics, terrible buttons on the steering wheel,
| tiny screens and bad sound systems on the default models
| to invite you to pay more...
| vkou wrote:
| People also do things like travel to and buy products from
| Germany without thinking about the actions of the previous
| people running that country.
|
| One difference is that a man in the high castle is running
| Tesla _today_.
|
| (...Not that I have a lot of love and goodwill for other
| industrialists in the general.)
| darth_avocado wrote:
| The biggest problem has been that they stopped innovating ever
| since the CEO decided his focus was needed more on an app he
| found mildly annoying that he ended up buying accidentally
| because he couldn't contain his bravado.
|
| Model 3 and Model Y era had the momentum they needed and
| instead of focusing on expanding to other segments or offering
| more range of models, they decided they needed an impractical
| truck. They could be building bespoke 500k luxury cars with
| Rolls Royce or a 30k hatchback or a 40k crossover.
| krapp wrote:
| You really believe all of the innovation at Tesla was being
| done by Musk? The cybertruck was _his baby._
| xyst wrote:
| I wonder if Bill Gates is still shorting TSLA [1].
|
| [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-bill-gates-
| super-m...
| ta1243 wrote:
| Tesla is overvalued to any rational player, but the market can
| stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
|
| Gates on the other hand can certainly stay solvent for longer
| than you or me.
| gravescale wrote:
| I still have never understood the valuations. Sure, they'd make
| sense if Tesla ended up being the only game in town, forever. But
| even though they undoubtedly have been streets ahead in many
| places for a long time and Western manufacturers have been caught
| on the back foot, the Asian players are snapping at their heels,
| and (some of) the Western brands are slowly waking up. And even
| if they weren't, I don't see how Tesla would have been able to
| dig a moat wide enough to last so long that a trillion dollar
| valuation could be realised before they become just another EV
| brand in the pack.
| FireBeyond wrote:
| Tesla is a Schrodinger, depending on the narrative needed:
|
| They're David going against the Goliath of "the dinosaurs",
| "legacy auto".
|
| And then their fans like to remind people of the (IMHO
| laughable) market cap. You know, the market cap that says Tesla
| is worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia,
| General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault,
| Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi. COMBINED. But wait,
| there's more, also worth more than all of these AND several
| Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng.
| bobthepanda wrote:
| With the recent NACS deals they have basically also become
| _the_ charging network of choice in North America, which is
| certainly worth something.
| peutetre wrote:
| With North America slowing working toward a common EV plug
| and CCS winning the charging standard war, North American EV
| charging will become more like Europe. Charge any brand of EV
| on any brand of charging network, just as nature intended. No
| more vendor lock in.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| NACS is winning, not CCS.
| peutetre wrote:
| NACS is CCS. It's CCS type 3. It's why older Teslas can't
| charge on NACS chargers without a retrofit. They can't
| talk CCS without upgrades.
|
| Don't get confused by the branding.
| ta1243 wrote:
| The lockin is at the charger level. Fill up with petrol?
| Drive up, tap your card, fill up. At some places you fill
| up then go into the shop and tap your card.
|
| Electric? Drive up, work out which of the dozen of apps
| there are, try to download it, hold your phone in the other
| hand to try to get a signal, finally download it, then
| register, sell your personal data, then finally you can try
| to work out how to charge your car.
| peutetre wrote:
| More sensible infrastructure regulation in Europe.
| They're mandating contactless payments on charger. No app
| required: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-
| news/electric-...
|
| Even on Tesla's newer dispensers:
| https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s
|
| It's true that North America still has a long way to go
| on EV infrastructure, but it will get there eventually.
| yyyyz wrote:
| Because once the valuations are proven incorrect they just sell
| the company on to the next fool trying to justify the
| valuation. Look at Twitter, complete failure of the company,
| totally worthless but the legal system and media prop it up,
| even though it's only ever lost money.
| sschnei8 wrote:
| Steering has gone out twice on a family member's Model Y. N=1
| example but plenty of other companies now make EVs and they do a
| decent job of it... shedding 29% still leaves the company at an
| astronomical valuation, ~100bn larger market cap than Toyota.
| dmbche wrote:
| Also, steering-by-wire is not exclusive to electric cars, it's
| common ICE's as well - so it's even more apalling to have
| catastrophic steering failure on a new car, it's not the
| bleeding edge of tech.
| DustinBrett wrote:
| The company is so far ahead that it doesn't matter as long as
| they can keep executing on their plans. Not a popular opinion
| right now because of the Musk hate, but Tesla is not like other
| companies and Elon is not like other CEO's.
| deadbabe wrote:
| They are not far ahead. We've seen peak Tesla, competitors are
| catching up fast.
| DustinBrett wrote:
| Tesla has no competition. Cars is a small part of what they
| do.
| hervature wrote:
| Tesla's most recent 10-K (numbers in millions of $):
|
| """
|
| Automotive sales: 78,509
|
| Automotive regulatory credits: 1,790
|
| Automotive leasing: 2,120
|
| Services and other: 8,319
|
| Energy generation and storage segment revenue: 6,035
|
| """
|
| Which part are you referring to when you say cars is a
| small part?
| chimpanzee wrote:
| > Which part are you referring to when you say cars is a
| small part
|
| The future.
|
| (I'm a quick learner.)
| sumedh wrote:
| > Tesla has no competition.
|
| Didnt Elon himself say that Chinese EVs are their biggest
| competition right now.
| peutetre wrote:
| Far ahead in what?
| DustinBrett wrote:
| Building the future.
| DonHopkins wrote:
| Sheez. And brainwashing, apparently.
| DustinBrett wrote:
| Every time I hear one of you haters, I think the same
| thing, fyi. The difference is I think about things when
| they come out and you have your mind set on hating.
| arcticbull wrote:
| People will continue to call you out in this way because
| when asked "what do you think they do better" you replied
| with some handwaving nonsense. If you replied with some
| specific points, ideally quantifiable and backed by data,
| you would get quite a different response.
| samtheprogram wrote:
| This. "Building the future" is just asking for a
| similarly lazy retort.
| ideamotor wrote:
| (tm)
| jug wrote:
| All companies and all individuals are part of building our
| single future and our future is hardly a Tesla dominated
| one.
| alkonaut wrote:
| Last time I checked there is basically zero revolutionary
| things with Teslas cars, their battery tech, or
| manufacturing processes. Whatever advantage they had in
| range, charger network, manufacturing, side-businesses etc
| at least superficially seems to be pretty marginal. Sure, a
| marginal advantage can be huge in a competitive market, but
| building the future sees to be a bit hyperbolic.
|
| Oh, in the US they started off with revolutionizing the
| buying experience. But that of course only worked because
| the US dealer model was there to be disrupted. Elsewhere
| that advantage didn't exist either.
| lvl102 wrote:
| So Tesla is not like other companies...that survived secular
| changes. Tesla demographics changed quite a bit in the past
| five years.
| DustinBrett wrote:
| Well I don't know what you mean by secular changes. I can't
| speak to what has changed in the last 5 years as far as
| staff. But they still seem to be planning big and thinking
| the same way. They are the slow giant.
| viraptor wrote:
| It starts being less likely though. The plan was to make the
| expensive models fund the mass production. The cheap versions
| of 3 already happened, meanwhile other expensive brands got
| higher level driver assist, and other cheap brands got both
| lower cost and better quality of low end. They're months away
| from not being ahead at this point and there's nothing
| announced yet that could change it. What do you think they can
| keep executing on?
|
| They still have the charging network, but that's due to
| everyone else failing more than them succeeding. At some point
| someone else will overtake them too.
| PreachSoup wrote:
| It's just a matter of time. China is making ev like android
| phones. Other car companies are also catching up. The high profit
| margin of Tesla cannot last forever
| amou234 wrote:
| It's not a matter of time, cars and the car industry are
| treated as national security. Chinese EV cars will be even more
| tariffed in US and Europe in 2024/2025
| PreachSoup wrote:
| We were talking about Tesla's profit margin and evaluation in
| the thread. Not sure if you replied to the wrong post
| ansible wrote:
| I'm just concerned about battery safety with Chinese EVs. I've
| seen more than a few video clips of Chinese EVs just
| spontaneously catching fire (not from an accident).
|
| I would be more confident in owning a Chinese-made EV if it
| conforms to appropriate battery safety standards, and that
| those standards are enforced by USA regulations.
|
| I'm sure at least half the problems with the Chinese EVs are
| the inadequate regulatory environment created by the PRC.
| gerdesj wrote:
| "Investors are concerned about auto sales as the company faces
| increased competition from China and disruptions in Europe."
|
| Tesla have practically defined the market so far. They made EVs
| cool, created a comparatively vast world wide charging
| distribution network and so on. Now we have competition, proper
| competition. Mind you some of it is a bit shag, but nonetheless
| there is competition, and a lot of it is pretty good.
|
| I drive a thing called a MG4. I went to school in Abingdon near
| to where the Morris Garage originated. My Dad had an MG Midget,
| back in the '60s. The car I drive is Chinese, it just has MG
| plastered on it.
|
| My MG4 (its the extended range version) has comparable range to
| most of the current crop of EVs and is also comparably cheaper,
| and somewhat smaller, so less space. Swings and roundabouts. My
| point is that there is a lot more variety now than say five years
| ago. There is Polestar (from Norway) and Volvo and ... and.
|
| However, what all the johnny come lately's lack, which Tesla has,
| is its charging network. They have lost their lead in style and
| all that S3XY wankery - all the rest can do a reasonable job in
| looking cool/menacing. They do have a lead in infrastructure and
| should capitalise on it. I suggest opening it up to everyone and
| expand as fast as they can possibly manage/acquire.
|
| The real winners will be the energy suppliers. If you can ensure
| you are the flogger of the hardware that consumes that energy
| then its win/win. Swallow your pride: partner with everyone and
| get them to brand their stuff as Tesla.
|
| If Tesla manage to bugger this up (given their head start) then
| they only have themselves to blame and the market will be
| merciless.
| gerdesj wrote:
| Just in case I didn't spell it out:
|
| ICE: You buy a Ford/Volvo/VAG and you run it on Shell, Esso, BP
| etc EV: You buy a Tesla, power it with Tesla. Buy another EV -
| power it with ... electricity
|
| Tesla seem to have go this early on and then perhaps lost
| focus.
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