[HN Gopher] The Google employees who created transformers
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Google employees who created transformers
        
       Author : marban
       Score  : 307 points
       Date   : 2024-03-20 13:29 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wired.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wired.com)
        
       | CharlesW wrote:
       | https://archive.is/gT5Ot
        
       | whatever1 wrote:
       | I am all in for allowing tax free bloated RnD departments just
       | with the hope that once in a decade idea will propell the overall
       | economy.
       | 
       | The marvel of modern computing is a result of RnD bloat that was
       | done without immediate impact to the bottomlines of their own
       | companies.
        
         | utopcell wrote:
         | Tax-free ? This was a regular Google team.
        
           | bozhark wrote:
           | Maybe they meant revenue free?
        
           | orev wrote:
           | In the US, R&D expenses can often be deducted when filing
           | taxes. I'm sure large companies like Google would be taking
           | advantage of those rules.
        
             | ant6n wrote:
             | Can't all expenses be deducted when filing taxes? I mean,
             | taxes are paid on profit, which is revenue minus expenses.
        
               | mikeyouse wrote:
               | Yeah the person you are replying to was imprecise -
               | there's actually tax _credits_ for R &D expense in the US
               | rather than just tax deductions.
               | 
               | https://www.plantemoran.com/explore-our-
               | thinking/insight/202...
        
               | jdross wrote:
               | Starting this year you need to amortize the R&D expenses
               | over 5+ years, which is going to be brutal for startups.
               | 
               | Losing a lot of money and you can't write off your
               | engineers
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Not to mention the thing about tax credits, but when
               | people say "R&D expenses" they often include quite a lot
               | of investments on their definition.
               | 
               | In fact, it's arguable if anything in R&D qualifies as an
               | expense at all.
        
           | xhkkffbf wrote:
           | What they meant was that the R&D was fully deductible, not
           | amortized over a number of years. It's like saying that a
           | business's electricity bill is "tax-free" because they can
           | deduct it from their revenues immediately.
           | 
           | And as it is, Google certainly paid property taxes
           | immediately on the office building as well as FICA on all of
           | the employees who, of course, paid their own taxes.
           | 
           | But haters of the R&D system love to call it "tax-free".
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | There's the benefit of expensing the costs over
             | amortizating them - but there's also straight up cash in
             | the form of R&D tax credits - it's one method tech
             | companies use to minimize their tax bills:
             | 
             | https://www.plantemoran.com/explore-our-
             | thinking/insight/202...
        
         | abofh wrote:
         | Many inventions of the modern age were largely R&D bloat as
         | you'd describe it - in this age R&D is done in university, spun
         | out into a startup, and dies shortly after the IPO - but
         | there's a flicker of it occasionally lasting on if it can hide
         | under the guise of a tax deduction.
        
         | TremendousJudge wrote:
         | Weren't transistors specifically invented to improve telephone
         | networks?
        
         | amanda99 wrote:
         | I mean this is how the US operates. Other countries continually
         | try to refine their existing industries and societal
         | structures. In the US, you let everything rot and hope that a
         | hail Mary innovation comes out of somewhere and creates a
         | breath of fresh air. It creates quite a wild society, but it
         | seems to have worked for now!
        
       | saadatq wrote:
       | Of note:
       | 
       | " Six of the eight authors were born outside the United States;
       | the other two are children of two green-card-carrying Germans who
       | were temporarily in California and a first-generation American
       | whose family had fled persecution, respectively."
        
         | IncreasePosts wrote:
         | Why would that be of note, especially in America? I think it
         | would be an interesting observation in China or Japan, or some
         | other country which is generally less welcoming to immigrants
         | than the US
        
           | svnt wrote:
           | First generation immigrants are still a tiny minority of the
           | population. The fact that the entire team consists
           | effectively of first generation immigrants says something,
           | probably both about higher education and American culture.
        
             | bugglebeetle wrote:
             | > First generation immigrants are still a tiny minority of
             | the population
             | 
             | Not in California. Last I remember, something like a
             | quarter of the state's population is foreign born.
        
               | svnt wrote:
               | It looks like you are roughly right, but still, a
               | sampling of 8 students from this population is not likely
               | to come up that way (by my calculation 1.4x10^-7)
               | 
               | > All Students in Higher Education in California
               | 
               | > 2,737,000
               | 
               | > First-Generation Immigrant Students
               | 
               | > 387,000
               | 
               | 14% are first-generation immigrants
               | 
               | from: https://www.higheredimmigrationportal.org/state/cal
               | ifornia/
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | That's still a 1-in-4^8 = 1-in-65536 longshot.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | Its really not; hiring within a single firm, especially
               | for related functions, will tend fo have correlated
               | biases, rather than being a random sample from even the
               | pool of qualified applicants, much less the broader
               | population.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > First generation immigrants are still a tiny minority of
             | the population.
             | 
             | About 1/8 of the US population is foreign-born, which is a
             | minority but not a tiny one. In California, its over a
             | quarter.
        
             | 0xcafecafe wrote:
             | Isn't some of it have to do with it being a self selecting
             | sample? If you come to America to study, you were a good
             | student in your resident country leading to more chances of
             | success than the average local citizen. Their children
             | might be smarter on average. Alternatively if you are
             | coming fleeing persecutions you are enterprising enough to
             | set up something for your children. That hard work
             | inculcates a sort of work ethic in such children which in
             | turn sets them up for success. Speaking from experience as
             | an immigrant myself.
        
               | svnt wrote:
               | I think all those are true, but if so the percentages of
               | first-generation immigrants should increase as you ascend
               | the educational pyramid. I believe it does from undergrad
               | to Phd, but not from general population to higher
               | education, so clearly there are at least two very
               | different worlds.
               | 
               | There is a motivation that comes with both trying to make
               | it and being cognizant of the relative opportunity that
               | is absent in the second-generation and beyond.
               | 
               | There are also many advantages given to students outside
               | the majority. When those advantages land not on the
               | disadvantaged but on the advantaged-but-foreign, are they
               | accomplishing their objectives? How bad would higher
               | education have been in Europe? What is the objective,
               | actually?
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | I think you have completely the wrong takeaway here...
             | 
             | The US population is around 330 million. The world
             | population is 8.1 billion people. What is that 4%? If you
             | took a random sampling of people around the world, none of
             | them would be Americans. You're going to need a lot more
             | samples to find a trend.
             | 
             | Yet when you turn around and look at success stories, a
             | huge portion of this is going to occur in the US for
             | multiple reasons, especially for the ability to attract
             | intelligence from other parts of the globe and make it
             | wealthy here.
        
               | svnt wrote:
               | I understand, but reality has to factor in -- to get
               | representative you would have to narrow your sample to
               | English-speaking, narrow it to legal for long-term
               | employment in the US, narrow it to having received at
               | least an American-level higher education...
        
             | cameldrv wrote:
             | One thing is that getting a PhD is a good way to get into
             | the U.S. As a foreigner, many visa and job opportunities
             | open up to you with the PhD.
             | 
             | For an American, it's less of a good deal. Once you have
             | the PhD, you make somewhat more money, but you're trading
             | that for 6 years of hard work and very low pay. The numbers
             | aren't favorable -- you have to love the topic for it to
             | make any sense.
             | 
             | As a result, U.S. PhD programs are heavily foreign born.
        
           | quantum_state wrote:
           | The US is still the place to be, despite its problems...
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Because there are plenty of people in the US who are neither
           | immigrants nor the children of immigrants. In fact, they're
           | probably a significant majority. So to have 8 out of 8 be
           | members of the smaller set is rather unlikely.
        
             | IncreasePosts wrote:
             | Not when you consider that those people were pulled from a
             | worldwide talent pool for a relatively niche topic. If you
             | can recruit anyone you want in the world and end up with
             | 8/8 Americans, _that_ would be weird.
        
           | pksebben wrote:
           | > less welcoming to immigrants than the US
           | 
           | Not sure if we can claim this any more, what with texas
           | shipping busloads of immigrants to NY and the mayor declaring
           | it a citywide emergency, and both major parties rushing to
           | get a border wall built.
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | Conflating illegal and legal immigration is not a useful
             | contribution to this conversation.
        
               | pksebben wrote:
               | The phrasing was "welcoming to immigrants", not
               | "welcoming to the ever shrinking definition of good
               | immigrants established by a bunch of octogenarian
               | plutocrats".
               | 
               | "Illegal" is a concept - it's not conflating to assume
               | that it's not the bedrock of the way people think.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | > "Illegal" is a concept
               | 
               | Illegal immigrant is pretty well defined, an immigrant
               | that didn't come through the legal means. The people
               | hired by Google are probably not illegal immigrants.
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | Illegal is a status more than it is a concept.
               | Immigrating illegally is not the central definition of
               | immigration, any more than shoplifting is the central
               | definition of customer.
               | 
               | America is much more welcoming of immigration, by which I
               | mean _legal_ immigration, than Japan or China. This is
               | not in dispute.
               | 
               | It is also, in practice, quite a bit more slack about
               | _illegal_ immigration than either of those countries.
               | Although I hope that changes.
        
           | pyb wrote:
           | With the current state of Visas for the US, most countries
           | are now more welcoming to migrants.
        
         | bugglebeetle wrote:
         | Yes, this is one of the actually admirable qualities of the US
         | and California in particular. CA has one of the world's largest
         | economies because it attracts and embraces people from just
         | about every part of the world.
        
         | laidoffamazon wrote:
         | The more interesting thing to me is that only one of them went
         | to an elite American undergrad (Duke). Rest went to undergrads
         | in India, Ukraine, Germany, Canada (UToronto has a 43%
         | acceptance rate).
        
       | whywhywhywhy wrote:
       | Looking forward to the inevitable movie about how they invented
       | it and the company failed to productize it because of it's
       | culture and management
        
         | CharlesW wrote:
         | Xerox 2: Electric Boogoogle
        
         | galoisscobi wrote:
         | Same thing is happening with the Figure One robot. There isn't
         | much new in the demo Figure did recently, all the work has been
         | published in the palm saycan paper and other deepmind papers.
         | Google is good at laying golden eggs and not realizing that
         | they've laid them. Then employees get fed up, leave and start
         | their own companies so they can productize their work without
         | management getting in the way.
        
         | UberFly wrote:
         | This is a story that could be written over and over again.
         | Companies with big R&D budgets but not nimble enough any more
         | to take advantage.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | > "Realistically, we could have had GPT-3 or even 3.5 probably in
       | 2019, maybe 2020. The big question isn't, did they see it? The
       | question is, why didn't we do anything with the fact that we had
       | seen it? The answer is tricky."
       | 
       | The answer is that monopolies stifle technological innovation
       | because one well-established part of their business (advertising-
       | centric search) would be negatively impacted by an upstart branch
       | (chatbots) that would cut into search ad revenue.
       | 
       | This is comparable to a investor-owned consortium of electric
       | utilities, gas-fired power plants, and fracked natural gas
       | producers. Would they want the electric utility component to
       | install thousands of solar panels and cut off the revenue from
       | natural gas sales to the utility? Of course not.
       | 
       | It's a good argument for giving Alphabet the Ma Bell anti-trust
       | treatment, certainly.
        
         | tyree731 wrote:
         | On the other hand, Alphabet's inability to deploy GPT-3 or
         | GPT-3.5 has led to the possibility of its disruption, so anti-
         | trust treatment may not be necessary.
        
           | IX-103 wrote:
           | Disrupted by a whom? Microsoft? Facebook? The company
           | formerly known as Twitter? Even if one of these takes over
           | we'd just be trading masters.
           | 
           | And that's ignoring how Alphabet's core business, Search, has
           | little to fear from GPT-3 or GPT-3.5. These models are decent
           | for a chatbot, but for anything where you want reliably
           | correct answers they are lacking.
        
         | lelag wrote:
         | A better example of that behaviour would be Kodak which
         | invented the first digital camera as soon as 1975 then killed
         | the project, because it was a threat to their chemical
         | business.
        
           | jl6 wrote:
           | Digital photography works not just because of the camera but
           | because of the surrounding digital ecosystem. What would
           | people do with digital photos in 1975?
        
             | Andrex wrote:
             | We'll never know. Tech delayed is tech denied.
        
             | lelag wrote:
             | It does not matter. In the 80s, they owned the whole
             | photography market, now they only exist as a shell of it's
             | former self.
             | 
             | By not pursuing this tech, they basically committed
             | corporate suicide over the long run and they knew it. They
             | knew very well, especially going into the 90's and early
             | 2000 than their time making bank selling film was counted.
             | 
             | But as long as the money was there, the chemical branch of
             | the company was all-powerful and likely prevented the
             | creation of another competing product that would threaten
             | its core business, and they did so right until the money
             | flow stopped and suddenly they went basically bankrupt
             | figuratively overnight since the cash cow was now obsolete.
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | Kodak did plenty of great things with digital cameras in
               | the early 2000s. Their CCD sensors from then are still
               | famous and coveted in some older cameras. Go look at the
               | price of a Leica M8 (from 2006) on eBay.
               | 
               | The problem Kodak had is what the person you're replying
               | to is alluding to. They got outcompeted because they were
               | a photography company, not a digital hardware
               | manufacturer. Companies like Sony or Canon did better
               | because they were in the business of consumer electronics
               | / hardware already. Building an amazing digital sensor
               | and some good optics is great, but if you can't write the
               | firmware or make the PCB yourself, you're going to have a
               | hard time competing.
               | 
               | It's not chemical-wing vs digital-wing. It's that Kodak
               | wasn't (and rightly wasn't) a computing hardware
               | manufacturer, which makes it pretty damned hard to
               | compete in making computing devices.
               | 
               | (Granted companies like Nikon or Leica etc did better,
               | but it's all pyrrhic now, because the whole category of
               | consumer digital cameras is disappearing as people are
               | content to take pictures on their phones.)
        
               | jl6 wrote:
               | 1995 would have been a sensible time for them to pivot to
               | digital. 1975 would not.
        
               | davidgay wrote:
               | > In the 80s, they [Kodak] owned the whole photography
               | market,
               | 
               | No, they shared it with Fujifilm (1/3rd each in 1990
               | according to https://pdgciv.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/t
               | finnerty2.pdf). And essentially via film, film processing
               | but no significant camera market share, which is likely
               | far more relevant to the transition to digital.
        
         | tsunamifury wrote:
         | I was privy to the details of this. Sundar blocked the NEMA
         | team from presenting at I/O with its gpt3 level product in the
         | form of a character.
         | 
         | Sundar was afraid of the technology and how it would be
         | received and tried to ice it.
        
           | jimbob45 wrote:
           | How is that not immediate grounds for his termination? The
           | board should be canned too for allowing such an obvious
           | charlatan to continue ruining the company.
        
             | tsunamifury wrote:
             | Two judgements were made to my knowledge:
             | 
             | 1) Google enjoyed significant market status at the time and
             | a leap forward like seemingly semi conscious AI in 2019
             | would be seen as terrifying. Consumer sentiment would go
             | from positive to "Google is winning to hard and making
             | Frankensteins monster"
             | 
             | 2) it didn't weave well into googles current product
             | offering and in fact disrupted it in ways that would
             | confuse the user. It was not yet productized but would
             | already make the Google assistant (which at the time was
             | rapidly expanding) look stupid.
             | 
             | A fictional character companion was not clearly a good
             | path.
             | 
             | All this being said, I integrated the early tech into my
             | product division and even I couldn't fully grasp what it
             | would become. Then was canned right at the moment it became
             | clear what we could do.
             | 
             | Eric Schmidt was the only leader at Google who recognized
             | nascent tech at Google and effectively fast tracked it.
             | When my team made breakthroughs in word to vec which
             | created the suggestion chip in chat/email he immediately
             | took me to the board to demo and said this was the future.
             | (This ironically wound a long path to contribute later to
             | transformer tech)
             | 
             | Sundar often ignored such things and would put on a
             | McKensey face projecting everyone just was far dumber than
             | him and his important problems.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | The first time I met with Eric Schmidt he asked what I
               | did (harvest idle cycles to do scientific calculations),
               | and then we talked about how Google was slowly getting
               | into cloud. I remember him saying "I've tried to convince
               | the board that the cloud is the future of growth for
               | google, but they aren't interested" (this was before GCS
               | and GCE launched).
               | 
               | The second time I met him I presented my project (Google
               | Cloud Genomics) to the board of the Broad Institute, of
               | which he was a member (IIRC the chair) and he was excited
               | that Google was using cloud to help biology.
        
               | eitally wrote:
               | The irony, of course, with that, is that then
               | Google/Alphabet like Microsoft eat its lunch in the space
               | by poorly supporting The Broad and allowing Verily to
               | sign a $150m deal with Azure. Quite a few of the folks
               | who were working on HCLS products in Cloud (were you one
               | of them?) subsequently departed for Verily.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | I worked on the predecessor of HCLS and was pushed out
               | before any Azure deal (and would never have moved to
               | verily). I had set up a relationship between Google
               | Research, the Broad, and Cloud (to apply large-scale
               | Google ML technology in genomics) and all that went away
               | when other folks took it in different strategic
               | direction.
               | 
               | The Broad is still a google cloud customer and verily
               | seems to support all three clouds now, but I'm not aware
               | of the details. The whole thing seemed really strange and
               | unbusinesslike.
        
         | skadamat wrote:
         | Honestly, this is part of the reason why I don't think Google
         | will be a dominant business in 10 years. Searching the web for
         | information helped us service a lot of useful 'jobs to be done'
         | ... but most of those are now all done better by ChatGPT,
         | Claude, etc.
         | 
         | Sure we have Gemini but can Google take a loss in revenue in
         | search advertising in their existing product to maybe one day
         | make money from Gemini search? Advertising in the LLM interface
         | hasn't been figured out yet.
         | 
         | Google (kind of) feels like an old school newspaper in the age
         | of the internet. Advertising models for the web took a while to
         | shake out.
        
       | bigcat12345678 wrote:
       | Transformer == Modern AI? Wow, I dont know where should I start
       | My mind literally stuck at the absurdity
        
         | ozymandias1337 wrote:
         | AI is in the eye of the beholder.
        
           | supportengineer wrote:
           | And in this case, the transformers are more than meets the
           | eye.
        
         | itsoktocry wrote:
         | It's 2024; do we _really_ have to point out the fact that
         | publications take liberties with headlines? It 's been that way
         | forever.
         | 
         | Besides that, are you denying that transformers are the
         | fundamental piece behind all the AI hype today? That's the
         | point of the article. I think the fact that a mainstream
         | publication is writing about the Transformers paper is awesome.
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | OK, so the title should be changed to "8 Google Employees
           | Invented Modern AI Hype"?
        
             | bigcat12345678 wrote:
             | 8 Google Employees authored the Transformer paper, which is
             | the common architecture of all LLMs
        
           | tsunamifury wrote:
           | AI hipsterism
        
           | bigcat12345678 wrote:
           | Modern AI is such a big term that its way off the scale of
           | normal click-baiting...
           | 
           | Modern AI should anything after
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_workshop Not
           | transformer
           | 
           | AI has been people's dream since written history. i.e.,
           | everyone in their own sense would want to invent something
           | that can do things and think for themselves. That's literally
           | the meaning of AI.
        
           | calf wrote:
           | What makes transformers the fundamental piece over say, big
           | datasets, or Moore's law, or deep nets in general, etc?
        
         | J_Shelby_J wrote:
         | Do you think this current AI hype machine came from something
         | other than transformers?
        
           | golol wrote:
           | No, but it is weird to use "modern" here. Modern suggest a
           | longer timeframe. I would say machine learning deep NNs is
           | modern AI. It's just not true that everything not transformer
           | is outdated, but it is "kinda" true that everything not deep
           | NN is outdated.
        
             | cjbprime wrote:
             | > It's just not true that everything not transformer is
             | outdated.
             | 
             | Am not expert, do you have some links about this? i.e. a
             | neural net construction that outperforms a transformer
             | model of the same size.
        
               | pedrosorio wrote:
               | ConvNets Match Vision Transformers at Scale (Oct 2023)
               | 
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.16764
        
               | golol wrote:
               | Well transformers still have some plausible competition
               | in NLP but besides that, there are other fields of AI
               | where convnets or RNNs still make a lot of sense.
        
             | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
             | The phrasing kinda makes sense to me.
             | 
             | Consider "modern" to mean NN/connectionist vs GOFAI AI
             | attempts like CYC or SOAR.
             | 
             | I guess it depends on how you define "AI", and whether you
             | accept the media's labelling of anything ML-related as AI.
             | 
             | To me, LLMs are the first thing deserving to be called AI,
             | and other NNs like CNNs better just called ML since there
             | is no intelligence there.
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | But that's been the case for the last 60 years. Whatever
               | came out in the last 10 years is the first thing
               | deserving to be called AI, and everything else is just
               | basic computer science algorithms that every practitioner
               | should know. Eliza was AI in 1967; now it's just string
               | substitution. Prolog was AI in 1972; now it's logic
               | programming. Beam search and A* were AI in the 1970s; now
               | they're just search algorithms. Expert systems were AI in
               | the 1980s; now they're just rules engines. Handwriting
               | recognition, voice recognition, and speech synthesis were
               | AI in the 90s; now they're just multilayer perceptrons
               | aka artificial neural nets. SVMs were AI in the 00s; now
               | they're just support vector machines. CNNs and LSTMs were
               | AI in the 10s; now they're just CNNs and LSTMs.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect
        
               | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
               | Yeah, but for a while it seemed we'd gotten over that,
               | and in the "modern era" people were just talking about
               | ML. Nobody in 2012, as best I can recall, was referring
               | to AlexNet as "AI", but then (when did it start?) at some
               | point the media started calling everything AI, and
               | eventually the ML community capitulated and started
               | calling it that too - maybe because the VC's wanted to
               | invest in sexy AI, not ML.
        
               | golol wrote:
               | > Consider "modern" to mean NN/connectionist vs GOFAI AI
               | attempts like CYC or SOAR.
               | 
               | Well this is what Im trying to say too!
        
               | mindcrime wrote:
               | _Consider "modern" to mean NN/connectionist vs GOFAI AI
               | attempts like CYC or SOAR._
               | 
               | I dunno. The earliest research into what we now call
               | "neural networks" dates back to at least the 1950's
               | (Frank Rosenblatt and the Perceptron) and arguably into
               | the 1940's (Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts and the TLU
               | "neuron"). And depending on how generous one is with
               | their interpretation of certain things, arguments have
               | been made that the history of neural network research
               | dates back to before the invention of the digital
               | computer altogether, or even before electrical power was
               | ubiquitous (eg, late 1800's). Regarding the latter bit, I
               | believe it was Jurgen Schmidhuber who advanced that
               | argument in an interview I saw a while back and as best
               | as I can recall, he was referring to a certain line of
               | mathematical research from that era.
               | 
               | In the end, defining "modern" is probably not something
               | we're ever going to reach consensus on, but I really
               | think your proposal misses the mark by a small touch.
        
           | mindcrime wrote:
           | No, but "modern AI" and "this current AI hype machine" are
           | not equivalent phrases.
        
           | bigcat12345678 wrote:
           | Current AI hype comes from GPT
           | 
           | Transformer+Scaling+$$$ triggered the current hype
        
         | startupsfail wrote:
         | Transformer is an evolution of large scale training of seq2seq.
         | Diffusion models is an evolution of even older approach -
         | training denoising autoencoders.
         | 
         | It had been a relatively gradual and accelerating progress,
         | with number of people working in the field increasing
         | exponentially, since 2010 or so, when Deep Learning on GPUs was
         | popularized at NIPS by Theano.
         | 
         | Tens of thousands people working together on Deep Learning.
         | Many more on GPUs.
        
         | serjester wrote:
         | Modern AI != Machine Learning. Artificial intelligence has
         | always been about models being able to accomplish a broad swath
         | of tasks that they weren't explicitly trained on. It seems hard
         | to argue we had accomplished this before massive transformers
         | came along.
        
       | mkl95 wrote:
       | I thought level 4+ self-driving was going to be the face of
       | "modern AI"... instead we got this thing
        
         | lelag wrote:
         | Why do you think transformers won't be key in making a level 4+
         | self-driving AI. It seems to me that Vision-capable multi-modal
         | transformers could be the missing part: they can understand
         | what is happening in the world in a deductive way.
         | 
         | The Vision transformer is capable of predicting that a running
         | child is likely to follow that rolling soccer ball. It is
         | capable of deducting that a particular situation looks
         | dangerous or unusual and it should slow down, or stay away from
         | danger in ways that previous crop of AI could not.
         | 
         | Imo, the only thing currently preventing transformers to change
         | everything is the large amount of compute power required to run
         | them. It's not currently possible to imagine GPT4-V running on
         | a embedded computer inside a car. Maybe AI asic type of chip
         | will solve that issue, maybe Edge computing and 5G will find
         | it's use-case... Let's wait and see, but I would bet that
         | transformer will find it's way in many places and change the
         | world in many more ways than bringing us chatbots.
        
           | KerrAvon wrote:
           | Bandwidth alone isn't what prevents 5G from this sort of
           | application, at least in the USA. Coverage maps tell the
           | story: coverage is generally spotty away from major roads.
           | Cell coverage isn't a fixable problem in the near term,
           | because every solution for doing that intersects with
           | negative political externalities (antivax, NIMBYism, etc); if
           | you can get people vaccinated for measles consistently again,
           | then we can talk.
           | 
           | It all needs to be onboard. That's where money should be
           | going.
        
             | cjbprime wrote:
             | Quantized models could absolutely be run in-car. They can
             | already be run on cell phones.
        
               | lelag wrote:
               | If you plan on letting llava-v1.5-7b drive your car,
               | please stay away from me.
               | 
               | More seriously, for safety critical applications, LLM
               | have some serious limitations (most obviously
               | hallucinations). Still, I beleive they could work in
               | automotive application assuming: high quality of the
               | output (better than current SoA) and very high token
               | count (hundreds or even thousand of token/s and more),
               | allowing to bruteforce the problem and run many
               | inferences per seconds.
               | 
               | Clearly we are not there yet.
        
               | cjbprime wrote:
               | Could combine the existing real-time driving model with
               | influence from the LLM, as an improvement to allow
               | understanding of unusual situations, or as a cross-check?
               | 
               | I wasn't intending to say it would be useful today, but
               | pushing back against what I understood to be an argument
               | that, once we do have a model we'd trust, it won't be
               | possible to run it in-car. I think it absolutely would
               | be. The massive GPU compute requirements apply to
               | training, not inference -- especially as we discover that
               | quantization is surprisingly effective.
        
           | TimPC wrote:
           | I think we've found repeatedly in self-driving that it's not
           | enough to solve the problem in the normal case. You need an
           | AI model that has good behaviors in the edge cases. For the
           | most part it won't matter how good the vision models get,
           | you're going to need similar models that can make the same
           | predictions from LIDAR signals because the technology needs
           | to work when the vision model goes crazy because of the
           | reflectivity of a surface or other such edge cases where it
           | completely misunderstands where the object is.
        
             | lelag wrote:
             | I don't quite agree on this one. While I think that Musk
             | choices to go full vision when he did was foulish because
             | he made his product worse, his main point is not wrong:
             | human do drive well while using mostly vision. Assuming you
             | can replicate the thought process of human driver using AI,
             | I don't see why you could not create a self-driving car
             | using only vision.
             | 
             | That's also where I would see transformers or another AI
             | architecture with reasoning capabilities shine: the fact
             | that it can reason about what is about to happen would
             | allow it to handle edge cases much better than relying on
             | dumb sensors.
             | 
             | As a human, it would be very difficult to drive a car just
             | looking at sensor data. The only vehicule I can think of
             | where we do that is submarines. Sensors data is good for
             | classical AI but I don't think it will handle edge case
             | well.
             | 
             | To be a reasonable self-driving system, it should be able
             | to decide to slow down and maintain a reasonable safety
             | space because it is judging the car in front to be driving
             | erratically (ex: due to driver impairement). Only an AI
             | that can reason about what is going on can do that.
        
               | EForEndeavour wrote:
               | > As a human, it would be very difficult to drive a car
               | just looking at sensor data.
               | 
               | What is vision if not sensor data?? Our brains have
               | evolved to efficiently process and interpret image data.
               | I don't see why from-scratch neural network architectures
               | should ever be limited to the same highly specific input
               | type.
        
               | lelag wrote:
               | Can't argue with this logic, more data points certainly
               | helps. I was arguing about vision vs lidar, vision +
               | lidar is certainly better than vision alone.
        
         | whymauri wrote:
         | I think LLMs provide more utility than further dependence on
         | cars.
        
         | minwcnt5 wrote:
         | All modern AI is based on this, including self driving. Check
         | out Waymo's research papers. They even have something called
         | "Wayformer".
        
       | koala_man wrote:
       | In Google's heyday, around 2014, I was talking with Uszkoreit
       | about a possible role on his then NLP team.
       | 
       | I asked "What would you do if you had an unlimited budget?"
       | 
       | He simply said, "I do"
        
         | elevatedastalt wrote:
         | Nice story, but Google's heyday was probably 10 years before
         | that. By 2014 the decline had already started.
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | A little after that. I'd put the heyday between 2003-2010,
           | starting with the GMail launch and ending with the Chrome &
           | Android launches. That period includes GMail, Maps, Scholar,
           | Orkut, Reader, the acquisitions of
           | Blogger/YouTube/Docs/Sheets/Slides/Analytics/Android, Summer
           | of Code, OAuth, Translate, Voice Search, search suggestions,
           | universal search, Picasa, etc. Basically I can look at my
           | phone or computer and basically everything I routinely use
           | dates from that period.
        
             | mistrial9 wrote:
             | GMail, the service that tells every user that they will be
             | indexed and profiled personally for ad leads? _that_ is an
             | achievement ?
             | 
             | GMail was one of the red flags for many that "don't be
             | evil" was not going to be what it appeared. History says
             | that this kind of mass profiling never ends well.
        
               | pests wrote:
               | Gmail doesn't show personalized ads for some years FWIW.
        
           | OldMatey wrote:
           | Agreed. I remember the town hall meeting where they announced
           | the transition to being Alphabet. My manager was flying home
           | from the US at the time. He left a Google employee and landed
           | an Alphabet employee. I know it was probably meaningless in
           | any real sense, but when they dropped the Dont Be Evil motto,
           | it was a sign that the fun times were drawing to an end.
        
         | bigcat12345678 wrote:
         | Hahaha...
         | 
         | I worked at Borg
         | 
         | The quota system can kick in at whatever time the limits are
         | reached.
         | 
         | And GPUs are scattered across borg cells, limiting the ceiling.
         | That's why XBorg was created so that a global search among all
         | Borg cells for researchers.
         | 
         | And data center Capex is around 5 billion each year.
         | 
         | Google makes hundres of billions of revenue each year.
         | 
         | You are asking what people would do in impossible situation.
         | Like "what you do after you are dead", literally I could do
         | nothing after I am dead.
         | 
         | I cannot even understand what I do stands for in the context of
         | your question. The above is my direct reaction in the line that
         | he assumes he had unlimited budget.
        
           | Jensson wrote:
           | > I cannot even understand what I do stands for in the
           | context of your question
           | 
           | That he had a higher budget than he knew what to do with.
           | When I worked at Google I could bring up thousands of workers
           | doing big tasks for hours without issue whenever I wanted,
           | for me that was the same as being infinite since I never
           | needed more, and that team didn't even have a particularly
           | large budget. I can see a top ML team having enough compute
           | budget to run a task on the entire Google scrape index
           | dataset every day to test things, you don't need that much to
           | do that, I wasn't that far from that.
           | 
           | At that point the issue is no longer budget but time for
           | these projects to run and return a result. Of course that was
           | before LLMs, the models before then weren't that expensive.
        
             | bigcat12345678 wrote:
             | Sure, your explanation just matches what I was imaging.
             | Neither the question nor the answer made any sense.
        
             | smolder wrote:
             | I know a Google operations guy who has occasionally
             | complained that the developers act like computing/network
             | resources are infinite, so this made me chuckle.
        
           | ShamelessC wrote:
           | Lighten up.
        
         | changoplatanero wrote:
         | I shared an office with Uszkoreit when I was a phd intern and I
         | always admired him for him having dropped out of his phd
         | program.
        
           | lokar wrote:
           | The HR system has (had?) "abd" as an education level/degree
           | between MS and PhD
        
         | akprasad wrote:
         | Those were fun times! (& great to see you again after all these
         | years). It's astonishing to me how far the tech has come given
         | what we were working on at the time.
        
       | ralph84 wrote:
       | And none of them still work for Google. It's truly baffling that
       | Google's CEO still has a job after how badly he fumbled on AI.
        
         | hotstickyballs wrote:
         | Just like Xerox and Bell. Innovation isn't necessarily their
         | most important job, at least when innovations are being made.
        
         | nemo44x wrote:
         | He was too distracted with all the other things going on under
         | his watch. He spent too much time trying to convince rank and
         | file that it's OK to do business with customers they don't
         | like, trying to ensure arbitrary hiring goals were made, and
         | appeasing the internal activists that led protests and
         | pressured to exit people that didn't fall in line.
         | 
         | This is why the CEO of Coinbase sent the memo a few years back
         | stating that these types of people (not mission focused, self
         | absorbed, and distracting) should leave the company. The CEO of
         | Google should be fired.
        
           | tdb7893 wrote:
           | How has he been appeasing internal activists? He's been
           | pretty clear about firing them
           | 
           | Edit: I'm also unclear on what makes you think he's spending
           | much time on "arbitrary hiring goals". I remember an
           | initiative for hiring in a wider variety, also conveniently
           | much cheaper, locations but there wasn't indication he was
           | personally spending time on it
        
           | calf wrote:
           | It is intellectually dishonest to call the military-
           | industrial complex merely "customers that some Google
           | employees didn't like".
           | 
           | Humans are more than their companies' mission, and your
           | freedom to exercise your political views on how companies
           | should be run inherently relies on this principle, too. So
           | your argument is fundamentally a hypocrites projection.
        
             | srackey wrote:
             | " Humans are more than their companies' mission"
             | 
             | Not when they're on the clock.
             | 
             | Besides, many of the Google employees who are against
             | defense projects are against them because _those projects
             | actively target their home countries_. Much harder problem
             | to fix!
        
         | 0xcafecafe wrote:
         | Among other things (like cloud for instance). I always think
         | Sundar is the Steve Ballmer of Google.
        
         | Thaxll wrote:
         | Well, ads are doing well.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | Their wildest success at Google would have meant the company's
         | stock price doubling or tripling and their stock grants being
         | worth a couple million dollars at most. Meanwhile all of them
         | had blank checks from top VCs in the valley and the freedom to
         | do whatever they wanted with zero oversight. What exactly could
         | Sundar have done to retain them?
        
           | pigscantfly wrote:
           | It would have gone much better for Google if the Brain team
           | had been permitted to apply their work, but they were
           | repeatedly blocked on stated grounds of AI safety and worries
           | about impacting existing business lines through negative PR.
           | I think this is probably the biggest missed business
           | opportunity of the past decade, and much of the blame for
           | losing key talent and Google's head start in LLMs ultimately
           | resides with Sundar, although there are managers in between
           | with their own share of the blame.
        
             | com2kid wrote:
             | They should have been spun out with a few billion dollars
             | budget, no oversight, and Google having 90% (or some other
             | very high %) ownership and rights of first purchase to buy
             | them back.
             | 
             | It is a successful model that has worked again and again to
             | escape the problem of corporate bureaucracy.
        
               | paxys wrote:
               | Interestingly Google itself has followed this model with
               | Waymo. Employees got Waymo stock not Google, and there
               | was even speculation that Google took on outside
               | investors. It's weird to me that they didn't consider
               | generative AI would be as game changing as self driving
               | cars, especially considering the tech was right in front
               | of them.
        
             | lordswork wrote:
             | Funnily enough, the same AI safety teams that held Google
             | back from using large transformers in products are also
             | largely responsible for the Gemini image generation
             | debacle.
             | 
             | It is tough to find the right balance though, because AI
             | safety is not something you want to brush off.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | I thought Google fired it's AI Ethicists a few years back
               | and dismantled the team?
        
               | lordswork wrote:
               | Ethics != Safety. Also, Google still has both afaik
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | I'm not 100% sure I agree...
         | 
         | Google is an ad company at the end of the day. Google is still
         | making obscene amount of money with ads. Currently Gen AI is a
         | massive expense in training and running and is only looking
         | like it may harm future ad revenue (yet to be seen). Meanwhile
         | OpenAI has not surpassed that critical threshold where they
         | dominate the market with a moat and become a trillion dollar
         | company. It is typically very hard for a company to change what
         | they actually do, so much so that in the vast majority of cases
         | its much more effective (money wise) to switch from developing
         | products to becoming a rent seeking utility by means of
         | lobbying and regulation.
         | 
         | Simply put, Google itself could not have succeeded with GenAI
         | without an outside competitor as it would have become its own
         | competition and the CEO would have been removed for such a
         | blunder.
        
           | moralestapia wrote:
           | >it may harm future ad revenue (yet to be seen)
           | 
           | It harms ad revenue at the moment.
           | 
           | For some specific queries (like code-related), I now go to
           | chat.openai.com before google.com, I'm sure I'm not the only
           | one.
           | 
           | AI is the only thing that can put an end to Google's
           | dominance of the web. I also have no idea how Sundar still
           | has a job there.
        
           | CuriouslyC wrote:
           | Google is an AI/ML company that has shoehorned AI/ML
           | researchers into working on ads to pay the bills.
        
           | pchristensen wrote:
           | Classic Innovator's Dilemma case study.
        
           | com2kid wrote:
           | > It is typically very hard for a company to change what they
           | actually do
           | 
           | Microsoft started out selling BASIC runtimes. Then they moved
           | into operating systems. Then they moved into Cloud. Satya
           | seems to be putting his money where his mouth is and working
           | hard to transition the company to AI now.
           | 
           | Apple has likewise undergone multiplet transformations over
           | the decades.
           | 
           | However Google has the unique problem that their main cash
           | cow is absurdly lucrative and has been an ongoing source of
           | extreme income for multiple decades now, where as other
           | companies typically can't get away with a single product line
           | keeping them on top of the world for 20+ years. (Windows
           | being an exception, maybe Microsoft is an exception, but say
           | what you will about MS, they pushed technology forward
           | throughout the 90s and accomplished their goal of a PC in
           | every house)
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | Also, though I dislike it greatly, Microsoft purchasing
             | GitHub was a brilliant way to buy into a growing segment
             | which were natively hostile to what they stand for.
             | LinkedIn, maybe less clever, they only make pocket change
             | on it, but it is profitable.
             | 
             | Google doesn't really do acquisitions on that level. They
             | do buy companies, but with the purpose of incorporating
             | their biological distinctiveness into the collective. This
             | tends to highlight their many failures in capturing new
             | markets. The last high-profile successful purchase by
             | Google, that I recall at least, were YouTube and Android,
             | nearly twenty years ago.
        
               | greiskul wrote:
               | Waze was bought 10 years ago, and I think that one went
               | well. They didn't try to integrate it to the whole Google
               | Account thing, but they definitely share data between it
               | and Maps (so Waze users get better maps, and Google Maps
               | gets better live traffic information).
        
             | sharemywin wrote:
             | Office was the cash cow compared to windows.
        
               | stonogo wrote:
               | Microsoft effectively controlling the PC market as a
               | platform to sell Excel is akin to Google controlling web
               | standards as a platform to sell ads.
        
               | mcosta wrote:
               | Now is Active directory + Office 365 + Teams
        
             | michael1999 wrote:
             | Remember that Microsoft spent 10 years fighting the open
             | internet, and only launched the cloud much later. The
             | Windows business was allergic to the web-model, and they
             | fought it tooth and nail.
        
               | ShamelessC wrote:
               | In fairness, the web model tends to be objectively worse
               | in every way except profits.
        
           | xNeil wrote:
           | It's not about just ad revenue though, is it? Many thousands,
           | if not millions of sites rely entirely on Google Search for
           | their revenue. You cannot simply replace all of them with a
           | chatbot - there are massive consequences to such decisions.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | >It's not about just ad revenue though, is it? Many
             | thousands, if not millions of sites rely entirely on Google
             | Search for their revenue.
             | 
             | I mean these are kind of tangled together. Chatbots
             | actively dilute real sites from what we are seeing, by
             | feeding back into their fake into googles index in order to
             | capture some of the ad revenue. This leads to the "Gee
             | Google is really sucking" meme we see more and more often.
             | The point is, Google had an absolute cash cow and the march
             | towards GenAI AGI threatens to interrupt that model just as
             | much as it promises to to make the AGI winner insanely
             | rich.
        
         | ryandvm wrote:
         | I think the issue is that there is no future for a
         | _trustworthy_ AI that doesn 't completely cannibalize their ad
         | revenue cash cow.
         | 
         | Like, who wants to use an AI that says things like, "... and
         | that's why you should wear sunscreen outside. Speaking of skin
         | protection, you should try Banana Boat's new Ultra 95 SPF
         | sunscreen."
        
           | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
           | Yeah, but isn't the idea to cannibalize your own products
           | before someone else does?!
           | 
           | In any case, consumer chatbots isn't the only way to sell the
           | tech. Lot's of commercial use too.
           | 
           | I don't see why ads couldn't be integrated with chatbots too
           | for that matter. There's no point serving them outside of a
           | context where the user appears to be interested in a
           | product/service, and in that case there are various ways ads
           | could be displayed/inserted.
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | You are not imaginative enough.
        
           | open592 wrote:
           | "Based on the research I have available wearing sunscreen
           | with a SPF at or greater than 95 is the most likely to
           | prevent the harmful effects of sunburn".
           | 
           | Go to google -> Search "sunscreen" -> (Sponsored) Banana Boat
           | new Ultra 95 SPF sunscreen
           | 
           | Oh wow! 95 SPF! Perfect
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | > Like, who wants to use an AI that says things like, "...
           | and that's why you should wear sunscreen outside. Speaking of
           | skin protection, you should try Banana Boat's new Ultra 95
           | SPF sunscreen."
           | 
           | On the other hand, their history suggests most people would
           | be fine with an AI which did this as long as it was accurate:
           | 
           | > ... and that's why you should wear sunscreen outside.
           | 
           | > Sponsored by: Banana Boat's new Ultra 95 SPF sunscreen..."
        
         | seatac76 wrote:
         | I mean if you had the pedigree these people have, the right
         | move is to leave a big company and go start your own thing,
         | there is simply a lot more upside there. You'd be foolish to
         | stay with a big company, not sure what Google could have done
         | here. Not everyone wants to be Jeff Dean.
        
         | mzs wrote:
         | Google doesn't have to try to be the best at AI now, it can
         | just buy whoever is the winner later - a lesson learned from
         | google video.
        
           | robocat wrote:
           | No Google can't just buy the winner.
           | 
           | Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion (and I recall that
           | seemed overpriced at the time).
           | 
           | The way VC works for private companies now is completely
           | different than in 2006.
        
           | vlakreeh wrote:
           | If that winner turns out to be OpenAI and they attempt to buy
           | them it'll be blocked by regulators instantly.
        
       | Thaxll wrote:
       | It's pretty crazy to think that Google is not OpenAI today, they
       | had deep mind and an army of PHDs early on.
        
         | dpflan wrote:
         | What is OpenAI today? Can you elaborate? Google is a varied
         | $trillion company. OpenAI sells access to large generative
         | models.
        
           | bitcharmer wrote:
           | Sure, Google is worth more but they essentially reduced
           | themselves to an ad business. They aren't focused on
           | innovation as much as before. Shareholder value is the new
           | god.
        
             | dpflan wrote:
             | Agreed that Friedman cursed the market with "shareholder
             | theory", and it is a totally subversive and corrupting
             | concept because whatever will increase value is accepted
             | because it's the doctrine.
        
               | glial wrote:
               | Economic "theories" have an annoying way of being self-
               | fulfilling.
        
             | ripe wrote:
             | An ad business is all Google ever was. But they made 20
             | billion in profits last quarter. Why mess with a good
             | thing? Innovator's Dilemma.
             | 
             | Also, to be fair, OpenAI's huge valuation is only a promise
             | right now. Hopefully they will eventually turn
             | profitable...
        
             | codethatwerks wrote:
             | Shareholder value is fine. Share seller value is what is
             | targeted.
        
         | password54321 wrote:
         | Well at the time before Microsoft got involved it was sort of
         | an unspoken rule among the AI community to be open and not
         | release certain models to the public.
        
           | sharemywin wrote:
           | I think that was because it become a product that point.
        
           | pests wrote:
           | To be open and not release? Isn't that at odds?
        
         | cgearhart wrote:
         | I think it's evidence that timing is everything. In the 2010s
         | deep learning was still figuring out how to leverage GPUs. The
         | scale of compute required for everything after GPT-2 would have
         | been nearly impossible in 2017/2018-our courses at Udacity used
         | a few hours of time on K80 GPUs. By 2020 it was becoming
         | possible to get unbelievable amounts of compute to throw at
         | these models to test the scale hypothesis. The rise of LLMs is
         | stark proof of the Bitter Lesson because it's at least as much
         | the story of GPU advancement as it is about algorithms.
        
         | empath-nirvana wrote:
         | The problem is that chatting with an LLM is extremely
         | disruptive to their business model and it's difficult for them
         | to productize without killing the golden goose.
        
           | yobbo wrote:
           | Yes, but Google's search volume would make it impossible
           | either way.
           | 
           | But they are probably using various techniques in analyses,
           | embeddings, "canned" answers to queries, and so on.
        
           | crowcroft wrote:
           | I know everyone cites this as the innovators dilemma, but so
           | far the evidence suggests this isn't true.
           | 
           | ChatGPT has been around for a while now, and it hasn't led to
           | a collapse in Google's search revenue, and in fact now Google
           | is rushing to roll out their version instead of trying to
           | entrench search.
           | 
           | A famous example is the iPhone killing the iPod, and it took
           | around 3 and a half years for the iPod to really collapse, so
           | chat and co-pilots might be early still. On the other hand
           | handheld consumer electronics have much longer buying cycles
           | than software tools.
        
             | autokad wrote:
             | maybe its too early. I almost never google search anymore,
             | a lot of my friends do the same. Kind of like after I was
             | using google for years, lots and lots of people were still
             | using sites like ask jeaves, but the writing was on the
             | wall
        
             | codethatwerks wrote:
             | Google is big enough to avoid innovators dilemma. You just
             | create a new company and leave it alone.
             | 
             | I reckon it is more that you needed special circumstances
             | and series of events to become OpenAI. Not just cash and
             | smart people.
        
           | solomonb wrote:
           | Sounds like Xerox all over again.
        
           | thehappypm wrote:
           | No, I think very few people truly believed that a souped-up
           | SmarterChild would be all that interesting. Google focused
           | more on winning board games.
        
         | scottyah wrote:
         | They'd have to fall pretty far to be OpenAI.
        
       | freddealmeida wrote:
       | Attention models? Attention existed before those papers. What
       | they did was show that it was enough to predict next word
       | sequences in a certain context. I'm certain they didn't realize
       | what they found. We used this frame work in 2018 and it gave us
       | wildly unusual behavior (but really fun) and we tried to solve it
       | (really looking for HF capability more than RL) but we didn't see
       | what another group found: that scale in compute with simple
       | algorithms were just better. To argue one group discovered and
       | changed AI and ignore all the other groups is really annoying.
       | I'm glad for these researchers. They deserve the accolade but
       | they didn't invent modern AI. They advanced it. In an interesting
       | way. But even now we want to return to a more deterministic
       | approach. World models. Memory. Graph. Energy minimization.
       | Generative is fun and it taught us something but I'm not sure we
       | can just keep adding more and more chips to solve AGI/SGI through
       | compute. Or maybe we can. But that paper is not written yet.
        
         | calepayson wrote:
         | I'm studying neuroscience but very interested in how ai works.
         | I've read up on the old school but phrases like memory graph
         | and energy minimization are new to me. What modern
         | papers/articles would you recommend for folks who want to learn
         | more?
        
           | voiceblue wrote:
           | For phrases, Google's TF glossary [0] is a good resource, but
           | it does not cover certain subsets of AI (and more
           | specifically, is mostly focused on TensorFlow).
           | 
           | [0] https://developers.google.com/machine-learning/glossary
        
           | peppertree wrote:
           | If you are in neuroscience I would recommend looking into
           | neural radiance fields rendering as well. I find it
           | fascinating since it's essentially an over-fitted neural
           | network.
        
           | svachalek wrote:
           | Someone put this link up on another discussion the other day
           | and I found it really fascinating:
           | 
           | https://bbycroft.net/llm
           | 
           | I believe energy minimization is literal, just look at the
           | size of that thing and imagine the power bill.
        
           | arcen wrote:
           | He is most likely referring to some sort of free energy
           | minimization.
        
         | voiceblue wrote:
         | > but we didn't see what another group found: that scale in
         | compute with simple algorithms were just better
         | 
         | The bitter lesson [0] strikes again.
         | 
         | [0] http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html
        
           | tracerbulletx wrote:
           | I kind of wonder if the reason this seems to be true is that
           | emergent systems are just able to go a lot farther into much
           | more complex design spaces than any system a human mind is
           | capable of constructing.
        
         | fnordpiglet wrote:
         | In fairness, an article that's about "the Google engineers who
         | incrementally advanced AI" wouldn't sell many advertisements.
        
         | acchow wrote:
         | I guess the same thing happened with special relativity and
         | Poincare was forgotten.
        
         | autokad wrote:
         | I argue they definitely 'changed AI' but definitely agree they
         | didn't 'invent modern AI'.
         | 
         | Personally, I think both compute and NN architecture is
         | probably needed to get closer to AGI.
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | This is a classic... This isn't the first time this piece has
         | been posted before either. Here's one from FT last year[0] or
         | Bloomberg[1]. You can find more. Google certainly played a
         | major role, but it is too far to say they invented it or that
         | they are the ones that created modern AI. Like Einstein said,
         | shoulder of giants. And realistically, those giants are just a
         | bunch of people in trench coats. Millions of researchers being
         | unrecognized. I don't want to undermine the work of these
         | researchers, but that doesn't mean we should also undermine the
         | work of the many others (and thank god for the mathematicians
         | who get no recognition and lay all the foundation for us).
         | 
         | And of course, a triggered Yann[2] (who is absolutely right).
         | 
         | But it is odd since it is actually a highly discussed topic,
         | the history of attention. It's been discussed on HN many times
         | before. And of course there's Lilian Weng's very famous blog
         | post[3] that covers this in detail.
         | 
         | The word attention goes back well over a decade and even before
         | Schmidhuber's usage. He has a reasonable claim but these things
         | are always fuzzy and not exactly clear.
         | 
         | At least the article is more correct specifying Transformer
         | rather than Attention, but even this is vague at best. FFormer
         | (FFT-Transformer) was a early iteration and there were many
         | variants. Do we call a transformer a residual attention
         | mechanism with a residual feed forward? Can it be a
         | convolution? There is no definitive definition but generally
         | people mean DPMHA w/ skip layer + a processing network w/ skip
         | layer. But this can be reflective of many architectures since
         | every network can be decomposed into subnetworks. This even
         | includes a 3 layer FFN (1 hidden layer).
         | 
         | Stories are nice, but I think it is bad to forget all the
         | people who are contribution in less obvious ways. If a
         | butterfly can cause a typhoon, then even a poor paper can
         | contribute to a revolution.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.ft.com/content/37bb01af-
         | ee46-4483-982f-ef3921436...
         | 
         | [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2023-07-13/ex-
         | goo...
         | 
         | [2] https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1770471957617836138
         | 
         | [3] https://lilianweng.github.io/posts/2018-06-24-attention/
        
       | xnx wrote:
       | > Not only were the authors all Google employees, they also
       | worked out of the same offices.
       | 
       | Subtle plug for return-to-office. In-person face-to-face
       | collaboration (with periods of solo uninterrupted deep focus)
       | probably is the best technology we have for innovation.
        
         | tarsinge wrote:
         | > with periods of solo uninterrupted deep focus
         | 
         | Which is usually impossible in the office. So more like a mix,
         | which is what all reasonable people are saying.
        
         | kick_in_the_dor wrote:
         | +1. I worked remotely the past 2 years. I just RTO'd (new team)
         | and it's life-changing when you actually want to get stuff done
         | quickly.
        
       | throw0101d wrote:
       | This 'conversation' with Geoffrey Hinton and Fei-Fei Li goes over
       | a lot of the history of things (1h50m):
       | 
       | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWWgr2rN45o
       | 
       | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E14IsFbAbpI ('mirror')
       | 
       | Goes over Hinton's history and why he went the direction he did
       | with his research, as well as Li's efforts with ImageNet.
        
       | lordswork wrote:
       | It's pretty cool that Google employees can see the first
       | transformer implementation (and the reviewer comments) in cs/.
       | 
       | So many monumental moments in AI history are archived in Google's
       | intranet.
        
       | tinyhouse wrote:
       | It's amazing how much industry changed CS in the last decade.
       | Significantly more than Academia. Resources is part of it of
       | course, but I also think that the majority of best people in CS
       | choose research labs in industry over academia. No surprise here
       | of course - if openai offers you more than $500K a year, why
       | would you go to academia, make peanuts in comparison and worry
       | about politics for your tenure? Then when they get bored at big
       | tech they raise money and start a company.
        
       | nojvek wrote:
       | Google is an Ads company ad the end of the day. They are making
       | 10% revenue from GCloud but still bulk of their profits are from
       | Ads.
       | 
       | If they were threatened, Google could have easily owned the
       | cloud. They were the first to a million servers and exabyte
       | storage scale. Their internal infra is top notch.
       | 
       | Under no circumstances can they damage their cash cow. They have
       | already shown to be UX hostile by making Ads look like results,
       | and Youtube forcing more ads onto users.
       | 
       | The biggest breakthrough an AI researcher can have at Google is
       | to get more ad clicks across their empire.
       | 
       | Google management knows this. Without ad revenue, they are
       | fucked.
       | 
       | That is my biggest fear. That with AI we are able to exploit the
       | human mind for dopamine addiction through screens.
       | 
       | Meta has shown that their algorithm can make the feeds more
       | addictive (higher engagement). This results in more ads.
       | 
       | With Insta Reels, Youtube, TikTok e.t.c "Digital Heroin" keeps on
       | getting better year after year.
        
       | poorman wrote:
       | I'm getting tired of the "Google employee who created X". There
       | is so much prior art it makes me roll my eyes when I see these
       | posts.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-03-20 23:01 UTC)