[HN Gopher] Research shows that people who BS are more likely to...
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       Research shows that people who BS are more likely to fall for BS
       (2021)
        
       Author : mgh2
       Score  : 78 points
       Date   : 2024-03-16 17:01 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (uwaterloo.ca)
 (TXT) w3m dump (uwaterloo.ca)
        
       | heisenbit wrote:
       | This explains BS bubbles.
        
       | d-z-m wrote:
       | > They also identify two types of bullshitting-- persuasive and
       | evasive. "Persuasive" uses misleading exaggerations and
       | embellishments to impress, persuade, or fit in with others, while
       | 'evasive' involves giving irrelevant, evasive responses in
       | situations where frankness might result in hurt feelings or
       | reputational harm.
       | 
       | > the researchers examined the relations between participants'
       | self-reported engagement in both types of BSing and their ratings
       | of how profound, truthful, or accurate they found pseudo-profound
       | and pseudo-scientific statements and fake news headlines.
       | 
       | By their own definition, it seems like the people most inclined
       | to impress and mislead in situations where frankness might result
       | in reputational harm(in other words a real BSer) wouldn't admit
       | to engaging in BS behavior at a rate above a non-bullshitter.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | That's a useful distinction.
         | 
         | From the press release: _" Ratings of how profound, truthful,
         | or accurate they found pseudo-profound and pseudo-scientific
         | statements and fake news headlines."_ Does that mean the people
         | being tested were just shown the headline? Usually, that's not
         | enough information to decide if something is bullshit. So, were
         | they basically asking their subjects to guess?
         | 
         | The actual paper [1] is paywalled. US$12.00. The press release
         | does not link to the paper, nor does it give a full citation,
         | but it does give enough info that the paper can be found. A
         | useful metric is that if something makes a strong but unusual
         | claim, and the supporting data is hard to access, it's usually
         | bullshit.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/...
        
       | Lalabadie wrote:
       | I've been working with my first client who, I've come to
       | recognize, is _very_ susceptible to believing exaggerated claims.
       | This is someone who would enthusiastically dive into a cult if
       | the right person told him it's nicer there, but instead he's tech
       | entrepreneurship, so AI is always three weeks away from allowing
       | him to replace all his employees.
       | 
       | In the meantime, everyone in the design team keeps sending back
       | content that he's requested from ChatGPT instead of an actual
       | copywriter. Because everyone here, like everyone on HN, can
       | easily tell the difference, but he can't/won't.
       | 
       | What seems to be very difficult with someone like this is, they
       | participate in hype cycles because not doing so leaves them
       | feeling like _everyone knows something_ and they don't. They
       | don't want to be the idiot left behind when something good
       | happens, so they dive into every enthusiastic movement or belief
       | that comes in range. They don't have the ability or will to suss
       | out that each wave is made up of people exactly like them.
       | 
       | TLDR: High energy, low critical thinking.
        
         | cushpush wrote:
         | >AI is always three weeks away from allowing him to replace all
         | his employees.                 Well isn't that a temporal
         | oddity
        
           | ozymandias1337 wrote:
           | They are constantly shifting the goal posts.
        
         | passion__desire wrote:
         | the best way to spot a bullshitter is to ask them
         | 
         | A series of 5-7 why drill down questions expanding on a
         | particular word you don't understand or do understand.
         | 
         | And if they aren't quick to respond or don't answer don't know
         | or aren't out of their depth , you know they are bullshitting.
         | 
         | technique borrowed from Feynman's "why magnets work video"
        
           | gwervc wrote:
           | That works with almost every topic. Two-three questions
           | you're in the bachelor degree level depth, 4-5 master one,
           | 5-6 phd, 7 only God knows.
        
             | antisthenes wrote:
             | You can definitely get to the God level if you start with
             | the question of why are elementary forces and constants the
             | values that they are ;)
        
               | euroderf wrote:
               | "Tell me what are your three favorite dimensionless
               | constants, and why."
        
           | nuancebydefault wrote:
           | I _think_ I can very easily spot BS. That has its
           | downsides... I very easily get very annoyed with BS.
           | 
           | I know a few people who as good as constantly BS. It's a
           | puzzle to me what drives them, and why it seems like they
           | even don't know they are BSing. Is there some psychological
           | explanation, I'm curious.
           | 
           | I was thinking about giving examples to state my point, but
           | in fact every somewhat sane person must have had those 'WTF
           | are they saying' moments.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | I think part of it is that BS is commonly quite effective.
             | Good BSers are commonly good at getting information out of
             | people and feeding it back to them as a kind of echo
             | chamber. Most people will not pose adversarial information
             | (that is say something purposefully wrong) to see if the
             | BSer agrees with it and parrots it back. The BSer confirms
             | the other persons worldviews at the same time spouting
             | whatever crap it is they are selling. Very common tactic in
             | grifters.
        
             | sufficer wrote:
             | One example I can easily recall is some guy bsing about his
             | arena rank in wow. I wasn't good, but I asked enough
             | questions to determine he was absolutely bsing to the point
             | of laughter.
             | 
             | Like the kind of kid that says he has a GF that lives in
             | another city or state or even Canada lol
        
           | JKCalhoun wrote:
           | I assume this video: https://youtu.be/MO0r930Sn_8
           | 
           | Even from within the first few seconds you can tell Feynman
           | is already annoyed with the interviewer. It's possible that
           | there is some history here: there may have already been a
           | long run of questions and he's now become tired of it.
        
           | mistermann wrote:
           | They can simply counter with "bad faith", "you're being
           | pedantic", etc. Wins literally every time.
        
           | JanisErdmanis wrote:
           | Feynman did not bulshit the answer as the interviewer does
           | not have a capacity to understand the phenomena any deeper
           | and he gives all valid reasons why. If instead he would have
           | jumped to writing down a Hamiltonian and constructing a
           | partition function from which magnetization could be derived
           | for a magnet it would have killed the interviewer in
           | obscurity.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | There are enough people like this where for better or worse,
         | keeping up with these hype trains has become a solid investment
         | strategy. Imagine getting in early enough on BTC, or DOGE, or
         | AMC, or GME, or NVDA, or whatever comes next instead of
         | cynically scoffing it off (for valid reasons) on its
         | fundamental merits. You'd be singing a different tune I'm sure
         | after it explodes and you've cashed out leaving the zealots on
         | whatever subreddit holding the bag.
        
           | JKCalhoun wrote:
           | I've wondered from time to time why I never could find it
           | within myself to become a street preacher.
        
             | 082349872349872 wrote:
             | Surely you could find it within yourself to become the
             | _Life of Brian_ boring prophet?
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqaQ_Bhgmrc
        
           | 10000truths wrote:
           | Relying on the greater fool theory to make your money only
           | works until it doesn't.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | The boom/bust cycle. As they say, the hardest part of the
             | market is timing.
        
             | andrewflnr wrote:
             | I don't know, if you get out early enough and only invest a
             | portion of your previous winnings into the next cycle, it
             | only has to work long enough for you to build a decent nest
             | egg. But I suppose the average cycle chaser doesn't think
             | like that...
        
         | wolverine876 wrote:
         | It could be that their agenda is different from yours. Their
         | agenda, as leader, is to keep all the balls in the air, keep
         | everyone energized, everyone feeling trusted, the whole
         | enterprise moving fast. A way to do that is to just keep
         | charging forward with enthusiasm, at any target that's
         | available. The movement and energy and trust is the thing.
         | 
         | The what and how is not for your client; it's not for the CEO
         | (or not for a certain kind of CEO). That's for you and the
         | employees. The CEO's job is to lead, inspire, motivate, provide
         | resources.
        
           | smugglerFlynn wrote:
           | I am yet to find a highly skilled person who gets excited by
           | "moving fast" aka charging towards bullshit targets backed by
           | unrealistic time/quality expectations. And getting highly
           | skilled people bored or demotivated is the best way to drop
           | all the balls that "leader" tries to juggle.
           | 
           | Seriously, I think this whole Marvel movie style leadership
           | will be seen as a huge red flag and anti-pattern in 10-15
           | years, just like we now look down on those Henry Ford style
           | managers of the 20th century.
        
       | rightbyte wrote:
       | Isn't this some sort of Dunning-Kruger effect?
       | 
       | I.e. BS:ers don't think the listeners understand they are full of
       | BS, so they are more likely to push BS.
        
         | Rury wrote:
         | More like, people who are incompetent cannot determine BS from
         | non BS as well as someone who is competent. People who are
         | incompetent are also more likely to engage in bluffing
         | strategies (ie BS) in order to gain status than someone that
         | can simply rely on their competence.
        
       | bicijay wrote:
       | Maybe its ignorance then...
        
       | vlovich123 wrote:
       | Wouldn't it be ironic if this research turned out to be BS?
        
         | foobarbecue wrote:
         | There's certainly precendent! See Francesca Gino.
        
       | luxuryballs wrote:
       | I feel like it follows because they had first to overvalue
       | "impressive sounding information" in order to decide it was worth
       | lying about. Like someone being star struck by a snake oil
       | salesman.
        
       | robocat wrote:
       | Associated problem: salespeople seem to be gullible when buying -
       | they get taken in by slick salespeople. Given their skills you
       | would think they could spot someone pulling the wool over their
       | eyes. I haven't yet worked out whether it is just admiration for
       | a good snow job or falling for some status game.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | Possible that they are unable to distinguish between bullshit
         | and reality? It would somewhat excuse their own bullshit: they
         | may not _know_ they are bullshitting.
        
           | MenhirMike wrote:
           | That's the problem with some of the best sales people: They
           | are technically not lying because they _actually believe the
           | bs they're telling you_.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Holy shit, salespeople are hallucinating LLMs.
        
               | wholinator2 wrote:
               | Well, can we really ascribe belief to the machine? And
               | they don't usually have a bias in hallucination other
               | than what you're feeding, salespeople absolutely do have
               | a bias
        
             | Arun2009 wrote:
             | I've often seen this phenomenon at play in religions. They
             | are not intentionally lying even when they put forward
             | outrageous claims; they genuinely believe what they say.
        
               | Fnoord wrote:
               | I once went to a conference about a company selling MLM
               | products (I didn't know they were selling MLM products
               | and I was young enough to not know about MLM). They were
               | eating their own dogfood there, and lunch was free. It
               | was at an expensive hotel in my country. There were loads
               | of yuppies there. Everyone wore a suit.
               | 
               | Despite that, the conference felt as if I was at a cult.
               | And the CEO knew I had a couple of questions about his
               | products. He gave me the death gaze / cold stare during a
               | speech. I was in my early 20s, scared shitless.
               | 
               | Now, remember I wrote the conference was as if I was at a
               | cult? I got invited _to_ this conference via a brother of
               | an aunt (cold side). He used to be in a cult. Now he was
               | a hardcore Christian. He got very rich from these MLM
               | products because he was high up in the chain. As they
               | say: the apple doesn 't fall far from the tree.
        
           | Buttons840 wrote:
           | Sounds like cognitive dissonance. It's easy to believe that
           | BS is bad, but hard to recognize BS in others without also
           | recognizing it in yourself. When those beliefs are in
           | conflict the easiest resolution is to stop recognizing BS.
           | 
           | As they say: it's hard for a man to understand something when
           | his paycheck depends on not understanding it.
        
         | foobarbecue wrote:
         | This is so true. My ex's dad was a successful medical device
         | salesman, and a complete rube when it came to buying cars or
         | whatever.
        
         | camhart wrote:
         | Good sales people are genuine. Its easier to genuinely believe
         | in the product you're selling if you're gullible.
        
         | advael wrote:
         | Sales is a great example of how moralizing about tools rather
         | than uses of them creates incoherent beliefs which lead to
         | dysfunctional policy. Most sales people I've met generally
         | believe they're not bullshitting people. Now, their profession
         | selects for persuasion and exerting frame control over social
         | reality, and teaches it, but they use this skillset in a more
         | "legitimate" context than the central examples that get the
         | mean names, so the notion that they are using a skill for good
         | purposes quickly morphs into the belief that it's in fact a
         | different toolkit, because this is the only way we can
         | coherently tell them that they are legitimate but continue
         | attacking grifters not just on their actions but on their
         | competencies and methods
        
       | time4tea wrote:
       | And hilarious that the article about BS is behind a BS, illegal
       | in the EU, cookie banner.
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | Obligatory: Harry Frankfurt's "On Bullshit" [0] is a must-read
       | for everyone interested in some stronger definitions. The full
       | essay is easily found online.
       | 
       | Long as short: BS has not got a lot to do with depth of knowledge
       | or truth value so much as the attitude of the bullshitter.
       | 
       | It's a moral not a knowldge defect.
       | 
       | The Bullshitter is neither a liar nor self-aggrandising as we
       | commonly think, but simply has contempt for the very concept of
       | truth and falsehood. It's like epistemological sociopathy.
       | 
       | Some bullshitters can be very knowledgable too. They pass the
       | five-why questioning but then defect and talk absolute rubbish as
       | it suits them.
       | 
       | I think all LLMs are in essence bullshitters, and I hope
       | something good to help us understand not just consciousness but
       | morality too, will probably come of studying why LLMs are not
       | really "thinking" and holding an interlocutor "in mind".
       | 
       | Not Frankfurt now, but my own observation, if you wire that to
       | the idea that power is the capacity to paint social reality in
       | ones own interests, then unsurprisingly bullshitters are much
       | more common in traditional power roles. LLMs are therefore
       | (rather obviously) dangerous in any role that involves power or
       | decision making.
       | 
       | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bullshit
        
       | pcloadletter_ wrote:
       | It is cutesy to use the word "bullshit" but it seems too
       | colloquial to glean any real information from. What do they mean
       | by "bullshitting?" Any sort of misleading? Pretending you know
       | something when you don't? I guess I'm just tired of reverse-
       | engineering your information to make a good clickbaity headline.
        
         | puzzledobserver wrote:
         | From a cursory glance at the article, they appear to use the
         | word bullshit in the same sense as Frankfurt's essay on
         | bullshit.
         | 
         | Frankfurt's essay goes into a lot of detail about what is and
         | isn't bullshit. If I remember correctly, he differentiates
         | between deception / fraud and bullshit, which he characterizes
         | as lack of concern for the truth. A liar has an untruth they
         | want you to believe, a bullshitter wants you to believe
         | something, they just don't care whether it is an untruth or
         | not.
         | 
         | Now of course, one might complain that Frankfurt hijacked a
         | colloquial word for his idea, but he does spend a lot of time
         | trying to understand the everyday use of the word bullshit.
        
       | ls612 wrote:
       | People who BS (researchers in psychology) are more likely to fall
       | for BS (this sort of social psych research).
        
       | lelanthran wrote:
       | Could be the other way around.
       | 
       | "People who are more gullible are more likely to try a bluff"
       | makes more sense: they aren't aware enough to read the situation
       | and react accordingly. That makes them more gullible as well as
       | more likely to attempt a bluff.
        
         | Anotheroneagain wrote:
         | I think it's more likely that people judge if there is an
         | opportunity to lie by thinking if they would themselves fall
         | for it. So, morals aside, somebody gullible sees the
         | opportunity to lie all the time, while somebody very skeptical
         | may think that they would only embarrass themselves by trying
         | to lie. Or possibly lie unintentionally, giving an evasive
         | reply, incorrectly believing it will be understood that they
         | don't want to answer.
        
       | marcodiego wrote:
       | I call BS.
        
       | droptablemain wrote:
       | The way they've defined "persuasive bullshitting" sounds like
       | would capture 90% of human-to-human interaction.
       | 
       | People almost always have an angle.
       | 
       | I suspect this research itself has an angle as well, making it
       | meta persuasive bullshitting.
        
       | Fnoord wrote:
       | [delayed]
        
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