[HN Gopher] Digital forgeries are hard
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Digital forgeries are hard
        
       Author : ingve
       Score  : 143 points
       Date   : 2024-03-14 09:26 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (mjg59.dreamwidth.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (mjg59.dreamwidth.org)
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | Reality: Casual forgery is pretty easy. Forgery that will stand
       | up to expert examination is very hard. And impossible if you're a
       | bungling incompetent, as this guy seems to be.
        
         | nullc wrote:
         | A thing to keep in mind is that many of these forgeries Wright
         | has _successfully_ been using for a number of years. They
         | fooled people!  "If it's stupid but it works, it's not stupid".
         | 
         | One thing I've realized during the case is that the kind of
         | scrutiny people apply when they get handed a document as
         | "proof" is not the same as the scrutiny they'd apply if handed
         | a document they know is fake and they simply need to find
         | proof.
         | 
         | In the former case people just tend to confirmation bias
         | themselves, they check a few things and say "yep checks out".
         | While in the latter case, they'll much more quickly say "well
         | if it's authentic, then all the version numbers should check
         | out, lemme go check those".
         | 
         | The former kind of check is almost completely ineffective
         | against an intentional forgery unless it was made by someone
         | dramatically less competent that you. Validation for "proof"
         | sake must use the second process of assuming it false and
         | looking for the evidence of it.
         | 
         | There is nothing fundamentally wrong with accepting a document
         | on its face, but you shouldn't deceive yourself that you've
         | validated something. If someone is giving you a document to
         | prove something then you have to accept a serious possibility
         | that it was fake, otherwise why bother looking at the document
         | at all?
        
       | Macha wrote:
       | There's also been a few cases over the years of forged documents
       | being spotted by changing MS Word font defaults:
       | 
       | One example: https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/calibri-
       | controversy...
        
         | gjvnq wrote:
         | Skill issue.
         | 
         | They could've easily used Times New Roman like their teachers
         | probably instructed them. /hj
        
       | hammock wrote:
       | I'm reminded of the theory that the 2017 DNC email leak was
       | forged to look like it had come from a Russian, when a deeper
       | analysis suggested it had come via local thumb drive:
       | https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2017/08/23/exclusive-n...
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | There is this theory of the Moebius. A twist in the fabric of
         | space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape.
        
           | woah wrote:
           | Imagine repeating the same day as a Hillary '16 campaign
           | staffer over and over for eternity
        
       | BoppreH wrote:
       | I wonder why we don't have better (widely trusted and used)
       | timestamping services. It has always been easy to prove that
       | something happened _after_ a certain time: take a photo of today
       | 's newspaper, mention stock prices, etc.
       | 
       | But proving that an event happened _before_ a certain time, like
       | in the article, is a lot harder. You can send someone an email
       | through a trusted gateway, but people can only check by having
       | access to that mailbox, or trusting the person who has access.
       | And I know about PKI timestamping, but I 've never seen them used
       | for legal cases, maybe because the complexity erodes trust.
       | 
       | Are there any good solutions that would convince a non-technical
       | judge?
       | 
       | Edit: I remember _Twitter_ [1] being used for this purpose, but I
       | don't know if today I'd trust a hash dropped there, given how
       | much it's evolving and/or struggling.
       | 
       | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26609183
        
         | mananaysiempre wrote:
         | Don't know how convincing it'd be in court, but Open
         | Timestamps[1], a free service that operates by publishing
         | Merkle tree hashes to the Bitcoin ledger and can give you
         | independently-verifiable proofs after a while, still exists
         | even if it doesn't seem to be under active development. (I
         | think Keybase tried something like that some time ago as well,
         | they already had most of the parts in place, but then they
         | decided to use their own something-or-other-coin and I stopped
         | paying attention.)
         | 
         | [1] https://opentimestamps.org/
        
           | vintermann wrote:
           | A good example of using bitcoin for something that was
           | entirely possible with regular old public key cryptography.
           | Matthew Richardson's Stamper has been running since 1995.
        
         | sp1rit wrote:
         | > Are there any good solutions that would convince a non-
         | technical judge?
         | 
         | I feel like the best you can do is either to publish a
         | cryptographically secure hash or to publish something encrypted
         | and share the key/password when you want to reveal the secret.
        
           | BoppreH wrote:
           | But publish it where, though? It has to be:
           | 
           | - Publicly accessible.
           | 
           | - Timestamped.
           | 
           | - Immutable (or at least with edits marked as such).
           | 
           | - Widely trusted (or too big to be bribed in small cases,
           | e.g., Google).
           | 
           | - And keep those features for many years.
           | 
           | Twitter was surprisingly good at that in the past, but no
           | more. Blockchains, as mentioned in other comments, give
           | excellent immutability; but the field is such a minefield
           | that I'd struggle to find a trustworthy blockchain explorer.
        
             | OkayPhysicist wrote:
             | Take out a personal ad in a newspaper.
        
             | __jonas wrote:
             | It's funny given the context of this case that this would
             | be one of the rare times when using a blockchain would have
             | actually been useful
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | Publish a document hash in the newspaper classifieds. Media
             | should still be getting permanently archived by National
             | Archive or Internet Archive.
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | Why would you trust only one Blockchain explorer? You'd
             | trust the blockchain by using several explorers, and by
             | confirming that they all agree on the same value, to
             | assuage any fears you have about any one particular
             | blockchain explorer lying to you. Write your own, even, if
             | your level of confidence needs to be that high.
        
           | nullc wrote:
           | > Are there any good solutions that would convince a non-
           | technical judge?
           | 
           | Judges can be aided by expert reports.
           | 
           | And not all judges are non-technical.
           | 
           | The fact that you _can_ defend your documents with timestamps
           | is often enough: the other side won 't challenge them knowing
           | that they are likely to lose the challenge.
        
           | upofadown wrote:
           | If you can prove the existence of the encrypted thing before
           | some point in time than you could prove the existence of the
           | unencrypted thing before some point in time.
           | 
           | There isn't any way to do this without one or more trusted
           | third parties. Traditionally that would involve someone like
           | a public notary or a lawyer.
           | 
           | I was amused to find that there is a service that
           | cryptographically timestamps things over email via PGP that
           | has been running since 1995:
           | 
           | * https://www.itconsult.co.uk/stamper/stampinf.htm
        
         | SmooL wrote:
         | This is/could be a legitimate use of blockchain, e.g. see
         | https://gwern.net/timestamping
        
           | BoppreH wrote:
           | Oh, there's a Gwern page about that. That's perfect, thanks
           | for the link.
        
         | OkayPhysicist wrote:
         | For most purposes, mailing something to yourself for the
         | postmark and keeping the envelope sealed would probably be
         | adequate. It's possible to forge, but tricky enough.
        
           | johnmaguire wrote:
           | As far as I know, this is pretty much the gold standard.
           | 
           | Note that you need to send First Class to get a postmark in
           | the US - not standard Priority Mail.
        
           | grkvlt wrote:
           | you realise it is possible to mail _unsealed, open_
           | envelopes, right? doesn 't seem that tricky...
        
         | weinzierl wrote:
         | There used to be a service that published your hashes in the
         | New York Times. Satoshi must have known about it because it is
         | mentioned in the Bitcoin paper.
        
         | nullc wrote:
         | Allow me to plug my co-defendant's project:
         | https://opentimestamps.org/
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | _> But proving that an event happened before a certain time,
         | like in the article, is a lot harder._
         | 
         | If you _know_ you 're going to have to prove it, there are
         | loads of options. Absolutely loads.
         | 
         | The issue is simply that _this guy 's a fraud_ so he's gotta
         | come up with a story about why he didn't use any of them.
        
         | mike_hearn wrote:
         | _> Are there any good solutions that would convince a non-
         | technical judge?_
         | 
         | The judge in this case is actually very technical so that's not
         | a problem.
         | 
         | Regardless, the easiest and most direct way to timestamp
         | something is to use the standard RFC 3161 timestamping servers.
         | There are many, located in different countries and run by
         | different people, and the format is straightforward and
         | standardized. Support is built in to products like Acrobat. You
         | can attach multiple timestamps from different sources to a
         | single file. They are free. It can be explained to non-
         | technical people in a not extreme amount of time, and courts /
         | law firms in any country can easily find expert witnesses who
         | can verify such timestamps and testify to the court as to their
         | veracity.
         | 
         | For emails there's also DKIM, which signs email including the
         | date header. Again, plenty of people who can verify those
         | signatures, so emailing something to someone else and then
         | getting a copy of the raw email will do it (don't email to
         | yourself, that skips the signing process).
         | 
         | Disclosure: I took part in this trial as a witness and
         | testified against Wright.
        
           | sweetjuly wrote:
           | Note that DKIM does not necessarily sign the message
           | contents. [1] DKIM is only really (in a general sense)
           | intended to provide cryptographic proof that the originating
           | server is permitted to send it. If you need a non-reputable,
           | dated message, you really should use time stamping servers.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DomainKeys_Identified_Mail#
           | Con...
        
           | TillE wrote:
           | Yeah it's odd to see a bunch of people proposing ideas for
           | cryptographic timestamps (on the blockchain!) when anyone who
           | has worked with digital signatures should know about RFC3161.
           | 
           | Of course for verification it's important that the timestamp
           | comes from a reputable CA and not some random server you set
           | up.
        
         | blipvert wrote:
         | If only there was some sort of globally distributed,
         | cryptographically verified database of some sort that could be
         | used for this purpose ...
        
           | fragmede wrote:
           | We'd first have to admit that Bitcoin isn't a total scam and
           | might actually be useful for something, and we can't have
           | that now, can we?
        
             | recursive wrote:
             | We would need to admit no such thing. In fact, it's
             | possible that it's simultaneously not a scam, not
             | practically useful, and also suitable for this purpose.
             | 
             | Stuff on the block chain has a problem asserting anything
             | that's not on the block chain, which is what a lot of
             | people want to use it for. In this case, it's a bitcoin
             | solution to a bitcoin problem. It's all in-universe so to
             | speak.
        
       | alilleybrinker wrote:
       | (Assuming this is the same case; I haven't been following Craig
       | Wright closely)
       | 
       | It looks like the case was very swiftly decided against Wright.
       | Here's reporting from The Guardian about it today:
       | https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/14/australia...
        
         | toyg wrote:
         | I always wonder about people like Wright... how does such a
         | brain work? Why would one invest so much of his life and
         | reputation on brazen lies and forgeries? He's been caught so
         | many times, surely nobody can take him seriously anymore, it's
         | over, time to move on - but here he is, forging emails and
         | logs, digging deeper and deeper, turning his life more and more
         | into a farce. Why?
        
           | Analemma_ wrote:
           | There's pretty broad consensus that Craig Wright is a
           | pathological liar. And I'm not using that as an idiom for
           | "dishonest person", I mean it in the psychiatric term of art
           | sense [0]: he probably has an actual compulsion to lie
           | stemming from some kind of psychological damage, which
           | doesn't stop even when he's caught red-handed (he just
           | invents new even more outrageous lies, even when that's
           | nakedly against his own self-interest). This is confirmed not
           | just by all his behavior re: Bitcoin, but his own mother said
           | at one point he has been like this his whole life. It's. In
           | earlier days of Bitcoin it was causing actual problems, but
           | these days everyone treats him as a carnival amusement and
           | nothing more.
           | 
           | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathological_lying
        
             | bitnorbert wrote:
             | A bunch of bitcoin developers are still facing lawsuits
             | from him, and it still requires a ton of attention from
             | them and is causing them anguish. He may not keep launching
             | lawsuits against random community members, but one of them
             | still has one appeal case and one separate lawsuit against
             | him, for having been mean to him on Twitter.
             | 
             | It's true that most people consider Wright a silly clown
             | these days, but the chilling effect against Bitcoin
             | development is hard to quantify and, I think, wholly real.
             | This is why his latest loss makes today a good day.
        
             | rideontime wrote:
             | From watching the trial, it does seem to be an innate
             | behavior for him, effortlessly spinning "plausible" stories
             | to account for everything he's challenged on, that would
             | sound convincing to somebody without the technical
             | knowledge to understand what he's talking about.
        
           | breck wrote:
           | The active steps to disguise the truth are hard to
           | understand. Maybe some sort of brain damage? Or maybe a
           | pathological disorder that I don't understand.
           | 
           | However, if I try to assume a good intent, here's what I come
           | up with:
           | 
           | CW knows he is not Satoshi and his case is laughable.
           | However, by chance he happens to be in a unique position
           | (relative to everyone else) where as long as he pushes his
           | case, he keeps attention on the mystery of Satoshi . Maybe
           | that is his goal all along, and his calculations show that he
           | increases the odds of the true creator being revealed by
           | pushing his false claims.
           | 
           | I mean, the anonymity of Satoshi is puzzling. BitCoin is the
           | _only_ major modern invention with an anonymous creator,
           | AFAIK. I guess the most bothering aspect of the whole thing
           | is not that I don 't know who Satoshi is, it's that I know
           | there are people out there who do know (maybe in the dozens,
           | hundreds, or low thousands). It's annoying that there are
           | state secrets like that. So if that is CW's intent behind all
           | his puzzling immature actions, then there's an interesting
           | argument to consider that his actions might have a positive
           | ends.
        
           | Canada wrote:
           | Why? Set the chart to max:
           | https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin-sv
        
       | lolc wrote:
       | Wow this guy is a prolific forger! Not knowing the details of the
       | case, doesn't he risk getting a book thrown at him for
       | introducing forged evidence?
        
         | mike_hearn wrote:
         | Yes. He is at grave risk of the Crown Prosecution Service
         | making an example of him, which could result in jail time.
        
           | shmeeed wrote:
           | No doubt he expects to be able to talk his way out of that.
        
       | malux85 wrote:
       | Holy smokes isn't forging evidence a crime?
       | 
       | Even if it's hard to prove exactly that he did it, there's a
       | strong motive and means and a lot of pretty shocking evidence of
       | forgery here.
        
         | bitnorbert wrote:
         | He left court on a Friday, did the email forgery in the article
         | over the weekend, and was back in court on Monday. Forging
         | evidence is always bad, but doing it _during the trial_ in
         | response to something he was cross-examined on? That has to be
         | particularly bad.
        
           | nullc wrote:
           | Not just that, but he attempted to _plant_ the forgery in the
           | mailbox of his former legal representation!
           | 
           | Maybe that won't be treated as seriously as it should be
           | because people don't realize that it very much could have
           | worked!
        
       | ryan-c wrote:
       | This is about Faketoshi Notamoto, right?
       | 
       |  _click_
       | 
       | Yup.
       | 
       | This guy is a pathological forger and is _bad_ at it.
       | 
       | Here's my write-up from when he got caught doing naughty things
       | with ECDSA:
       | 
       | https://rya.nc/sartre.html
       | 
       | (as noted by another commenter, "pathological" is literal in this
       | case)
        
         | rwmj wrote:
         | The weird thing is being bad at it hasn't stopped him. (That
         | and there's some billionaire behind the whole thing, which
         | probably helps.) This article was interesting:
         | https://rorycellanjones.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bitcoin
        
         | ixwt wrote:
         | Wouldn't it be trivially easy to prove that oneself is Satoshi
         | Nakamoto? Just signing arbitrary messages with one of the many
         | wallet addresses from the first Bitcoins mined? Assuming of
         | course, that those early keys didn't end up like so many: on a
         | hard drive, in a land fill.
        
           | ghostpepper wrote:
           | He claims he destroyed the keys while medicated after being
           | released from hospital
           | https://twitter.com/bitnorbert/status/1757745072974475270
        
       | 1-6 wrote:
       | Craig Wright sounds like a bad liar
        
         | bitnorbert wrote:
         | In my opinion, he's a conman, as in confidence man. His lies
         | aren't high quality, but he tells them with great confidence,
         | which sadly is appealing to many people. He can answer any
         | accusation on the spot without hesitation. He's vague, so you
         | kind of feel like what he just said contradicted something he
         | said earlier, but most people's reaction is that they must have
         | misunderstood him earlier. He's very good at technobabble; if
         | you don't know that much about technical stuff, he can come off
         | as highly knowledgeable. He will use emotion as necessary.
         | 
         | Over the eight years he's been at this, he has built up a cult
         | following of people who worship the ground he walks on and will
         | defend him ferociously at every opportunity.
         | 
         | Yes, he's a bad liar, but very few people can do what he does.
        
         | nullc wrote:
         | You likely haven't witnessed him in person. For subjects he is
         | expecting his lies are delivered with perfect fluidity and
         | almost messianic confidence. He easily slips into raw
         | belligerence that absolutely shuts down most people.
         | 
         | He is an expert at statements that brim with sound and fury but
         | which signify nothing, and so although they covey some
         | impression their content leaves nothing to falsify.
         | 
         | He immediately deceives many people. Some of his approach is
         | polarizing, particularly the technobabbling-- people either
         | fall hard for him or see right through him-- but generally a
         | conman only needs to fool some people, not everyone.
         | 
         | The technobabbling even sometimes works on technical people,
         | particularly when they go in pre-awed by him, they assume that
         | misunderstandings are errors on their part.
         | 
         | Like if you met Knuth and asked him a question and he replied
         | with a bunch of jargon you've barely heard about but it doesn't
         | really sound right... you're not going to suddenly start
         | thinking he's a big fake, right? you're going to assume you're
         | the clueless one.
        
       | bitxbitxbitcoin wrote:
       | Just Ask Craig Wright.
        
       | reaperman wrote:
       | This reminds me of a paper[0] whose thesis is _" We enumerate the
       | requirements that a censorship-resistant system must satisfy to
       | successfully mimic another protocol and conclude that
       | "unobservability by imitation" is a fundamentally flawed
       | approach."_ It relates to censorship-resistant communication
       | systems such as SkypeMorph, StegoTorus, and CensorSpoofer which
       | aim to evade censors' observations by imitating common protocols
       | like Skype and HTTP.
       | 
       | This is essentially "digital forgery" at the protocol level. I
       | wonder if the thesis could be shown to be generalizable to most
       | digital forgery, or even forgery in general.
       | 
       | 0: https://people.cs.umass.edu/~amir/papers/parrot.pdf
        
       | nullc wrote:
       | This is a great point that hasn't been aired enough. I'm thrilled
       | to see outsiders reading the expert reports-- which are
       | themselves fascinating reading.
       | 
       | I'm one of Wright's defendants and have spent the last several
       | years of my life trapped in this involuntary puzzle hunt.
       | 
       | Often people read the conclusions on the documents and say "man
       | this guy Wright is a total idiot"-- and while I don't disagree
       | with the sentiment, it's the wrong conclusion to draw from the
       | documents.
       | 
       | These debunks seem simple once they've been pointed out to you.
       | But the problem that a forger has is that they must get
       | EVERYTHING exactly right. The anti-forger, on the other hand,
       | need only identify one solid flaw.
       | 
       | Wright's stupidity wasn't so much in any particular error (okay,
       | well a couple were kinda dumb: like backdating documents by
       | robotically replacing all past tense with future tense, turning
       | him into nostradumbass.)-- but the scale meant that it was
       | inevitable the he would make errors.
       | 
       | Unfortunately he's been learning and for the most part his later
       | forgeries had a lot less metadata to go on. If he gets too many
       | more tries he may be able to start producing unfalsifiable
       | forgeries. I'm really homing the judgement is forceful enough to
       | meaningfully shut him down.
        
         | mjg59 wrote:
         | Thanks! The quality of the expert witness statements is
         | astonishing, and the sheer scale of the work carried out in a
         | relatively short period of time is something I just can't
         | imagine. Do you know if there's any likelihood of the
         | opposition's expert witness statements (or Craig's remaining
         | witness statements) being made public?
        
           | nullc wrote:
           | They'll be made public. They're also good, though I think
           | you'll agree ours are more interesting-- as our side found
           | close to a strict superset of issues.
           | 
           | I think in particular the Lynch (one of Wright's expert)
           | report on the LaTeX files is interesting because it took a
           | different approach than Rosendahl -- so it wasn't as
           | duplicative: Rosendahl tried using legacy tools against the
           | files, Lynch used current tools the combination was
           | particularly fatal to Wright because if only one approach had
           | been used Wright would have claimed that the other approach
           | would have produced results that supported his case.
           | 
           | (Rosendahls' report itself is a great work in its own right,
           | in spite of being a LaTeX user for >20 years I learned quite
           | a few things from it).
           | 
           | I wish we'd gotten access to Wright's 22 million lines of
           | chatgpt traffic since September, that might have been
           | particularly interesting! -- the abuse of LLM's in the case
           | is itself something of public interest that sadly wasn't
           | adequately ventilated in the trial because we weren't able to
           | get the relevant records. But there were pretty good
           | indications that Wright used ChatGPT directly to create
           | forgeries, aid in the construction of other forgeries, and to
           | pad out his witness statements in a bit of a volumetric
           | attack.
           | 
           | The Bitcoin legal defense fund has tried to get out most of
           | what it could lawfully put out, -- skipping a few things with
           | privacy issues-- but once the trial started the priority
           | shifted to managing the case.
           | 
           | The default openness of the US courts may well have been the
           | real hero in all this: documents and statements made public
           | in the kleiman case boxed wright in from every angle. Its
           | important that materials from this case are made public
           | because it may not, unfortunately, be the last we hear from
           | wright. Even where the US case didn't make some things
           | public, it make their existence public which in some cases
           | enabled us to obtain them: e.g. we were able to get all of
           | Gavin's communications with Satoshi which had previously been
           | provided to Wright and whose existence Wright tried
           | desperately and ultimately unsuccessfully to deny.
           | 
           | The UK court openness is less by default, but the parties
           | have a substantial ability to publish things-- allowing the
           | parties to get things much closer to US practices.
        
         | rideontime wrote:
         | Did you get to see any of Ramona's box of last-minute
         | handwritten evidence? While I'm glad you didn't have to deal
         | with it and drag things out further, I'd love to see more
         | entertainingly obvious forgeries, like the notepad dated '07
         | that wasn't printed until 2012.
        
           | nullc wrote:
           | Yes. hehe. Mixed feelings on that. It's fun to dunk on his
           | forgeries, but they all have risk.
           | 
           | I very much did not enjoy having to read a large amount of
           | handwritten nonsense on a short fuse during the trial... and
           | in some sense he was successful with them in that he wasted
           | an enormous amount of time that could have been spent on
           | something else, an they likely won't weigh against him
           | substantially if at all since they didn't get used.
        
       | esafak wrote:
       | A more serious case of this took place in Turkey two decades ago,
       | and involved the jailing of a significant fraction of the
       | military leadership. So it amounted to a judicial coup against
       | the military. The son-in-law of one of the generals (Cetin Dogan)
       | analyzed a piece of the evidence, a Word document ostensibly
       | dated 2003, and proved that it contained anachronisms dating it
       | to at least 2007.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sledgehammer_(alleged_coup_pla...
        
       | mcdonje wrote:
       | Interesting article, but the headline seems dubious. What's the
       | opposite of survivorship bias? Because it seems like the
       | population of good forgeries would be hard to quantify.
        
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       (page generated 2024-03-14 23:00 UTC)