[HN Gopher] Webb and Hubble confirm Universe's expansion rate
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       Webb and Hubble confirm Universe's expansion rate
        
       Author : thunderbong
       Score  : 180 points
       Date   : 2024-03-11 20:49 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.esa.int)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.esa.int)
        
       | JohnMakin wrote:
       | This sort of brushes on it but for a long time there was hope at
       | resolving the Hubble Tension by saying that Hubble telescope's
       | measurements were incorrect, because that would be the most
       | simple explanation. This was not the case, so if anything, the
       | mystery deepens. I don't know for certain but I believe Hubble's
       | estimation has been widely accepted for a while though, because
       | we've been using the 13.8 billion cosmological age estimate ever
       | since I started brushing up my layman's understanding of the
       | subject.
        
         | orra wrote:
         | > we've been using the 13.8 billion cosmological age estimate
         | ever since I started brushing up my layman's understanding of
         | the subject.
         | 
         | I remembered the age of the universe as as 13.7 billion years,
         | but I wasn't sure why that was.
         | 
         | Well, the initial WMAP results in 2003 supported an age of 13.7
         | billion years. Later results nudged this upwards to 13.8
         | billion years. Of course, all the results have error bars.
        
           | explaininjs wrote:
           | > Of course, all the results have error bars.
           | 
           | Not to mention the underlying philosophical assumptions, such
           | that the "rate of time" has been constant across all of...
           | time.
           | 
           | Aka: How do we know a "year" 13 Billion "years" ago bears any
           | resemblance to one now? What would it mean for it not to?
        
             | fooker wrote:
             | Philosophical indeed, as it's impossible to define the idea
             | of a rate of time, when the idea of rate is defined in
             | terms on time itself.
        
             | dartos wrote:
             | I'd assume that we have some notion of how the laws of
             | physics have changed, if at all, since the Big Bang.
             | 
             | We measure time in vibrations of a cesium isotope IIRC
        
               | db48x wrote:
               | No, we measure the frequency of vibrations of _light_,
               | not of a type of atom. Specifically, it is light emitted
               | by cesium atoms that are transitioning from one specific
               | energy state to another specific energy state. Although
               | this is arbitrary, it is highly reproducible and would
               | give precisely the same measured lengths of time at any
               | point since the big bang.
        
               | elashri wrote:
               | That assumes that fundamental laws of physics did not
               | change (will not change). This is what we believe and
               | have no evidence otherwise. This is important since we
               | rely on measuring atomic transitions of cesium atoms
               | which itself were formed/forming billions of years after
               | the big bang itself.
               | 
               | The laws of physics invariance under time is a core to
               | our understanding. It would be very disrupting if we
               | found otherwise.
        
               | yongjik wrote:
               | Fun fact: the Oklo reactor, a _naturally occurring_
               | nuclear reactor that was active more than a billion years
               | ago, was used to test if physical constants were the same
               | in ancient times.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_rea
               | cto...
        
             | speak_plainly wrote:
             | Time in this context is just an arbitrary measurement. Like
             | extrapolating the calendar back to the Big Bang which is
             | when space/time began, another way to think about time.
        
             | dwattttt wrote:
             | How do we know <anything>? Observations we can make plus
             | models that relate those to the things we can't observe
             | directly.
        
         | perihelions wrote:
         | Here's a graph of the contradictory measurements (JWST data not
         | yet included),
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Determining_the...
         | (caption: _" Value of the Hubble constant in (km/s)/Mpc,
         | including measurement uncertainty, for recent surveys[54]"_)
        
       | gregorymichael wrote:
       | What are the implications?
        
         | kromem wrote:
         | Basically it means that we can't regard the Hubble result as a
         | mismeasurement and the age of the universe seems to be
         | different depending on how you measure it.
         | 
         | From the article:
         | 
         | "The bottom line is that the so-called Hubble Tension between
         | what happens in the nearby Universe compared to the early
         | Universe's expansion remains a nagging puzzle for cosmologists.
         | There may be something woven into the fabric of space that we
         | don't yet understand."
        
           | washadjeffmad wrote:
           | Sounds like they don't want to spoil everyone's research
           | grants!
        
             | jdiff wrote:
             | Outside of the tinfoil, it just sounds like the universe is
             | complex and not always predictable.
        
               | washadjeffmad wrote:
               | I meant it as a comment on the phrasing. Potentially
               | jeopardizing a field's cash flow is a legitimate worry,
               | and I see a few have felt that, as well.
        
               | bigbillheck wrote:
               | There's a whole lot of open problems in cosmology,
               | nobody's going to be out of work if they solve this one.
        
               | harywilke wrote:
               | It's amazing that barely a 100 years ago The Great Debate
               | in astronomy was weather the Milky Way was the extent of
               | the universe or things like Andromeda were their own
               | 'island universes'. In the 1920s, Edwin Hubble showed
               | that Andromeda was far outside the Milky Way by measuring
               | Cepheid variable stars. These are the same stars that we
               | are measuring today in this debate.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Debate_(astronomy)
        
           | techwiz137 wrote:
           | I just think it means the expansion rate is not a constant,
           | but a variable.
        
         | mr_mitm wrote:
         | Either we live in an unusually under dense region of the
         | universe or our models are wrong ("new physics").
        
           | amethyst wrote:
           | Or it's a simulation and someone keeps pushing changes to
           | production.
        
             | cwillu wrote:
             | Which would also count as new physics.
        
               | yreg wrote:
               | With even more literal meaning of new.
        
             | lajr wrote:
             | I wonder if their introspection is good enough to have our
             | population on a Grafana dashboard somewhere
        
             | queuebert wrote:
             | Somewhere aliens are making fun of how shoddy our
             | simulation is coded.
        
             | brcmthrowaway wrote:
             | It's definitely a simulation at this point
        
             | ducttapecrown wrote:
             | All the expert software engineers agree this is the most
             | likely explanation. Have physicists looked into this?
        
             | imzadi wrote:
             | Someone keeps running gparted on our partition
        
       | nsilvestri wrote:
       | This URL is a stub, and the full article can be read at
       | https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Webb/W...
        
         | cwillu wrote:
         | Added bonus: it has 50% less animated "responsive" design.
        
       | FredPret wrote:
       | Unbelievable how much we can work out from just the odd photon
       | hitting us from somewhere in the great unknown.
        
         | golemotron wrote:
         | Occam's Razor does a lot of heavy lifting.
        
         | daxfohl wrote:
         | It's astounding to me that space is so empty that in the
         | billions of light years from here to the edge of the universe,
         | there's less total interference than what you get from a small
         | cloud.
         | 
         | And if it wasn't, then we'd have no way of knowing about any of
         | this.
        
         | CobrastanJorji wrote:
         | "The odd photon hitting us" is also a pretty good description
         | of eyesight, radio, and fiber optics.
        
           | fooker wrote:
           | Clearly the even photon is for parity checking and error
           | correction ;)
        
       | westurner wrote:
       | Hubble's law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law
       | 
       | Expansion of the universe:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_the_universe :
       | 
       | > _While objects cannot move faster than light, this limitation
       | only applies with respect to local reference frames and does not
       | limit the recession rates of cosmologically distant objects_
       | 
       | Given that v is velocity in the opposite direction, and c is the
       | constant reference frame speed of light; do we account for
       | velocity in determining whether light traveling at c towards
       | earth will ever reach us?                 v - c < 0 if v>c
       | v + c > c if v>0
       | 
       | Are tachyons FTL, is there entanglement FTL?
       | 
       | How far away in light years does a mirror in space need to be in
       | order to see dinosaurs that existed say 100 million years ago?
        
         | blackbear_ wrote:
         | > do we account for velocity in determining whether light
         | traveling at c towards earth will ever reach us?
         | 
         | As far as I know this is not necessary because the speed of
         | light is constant regardless of the velocity of both the source
         | and the observer (this is Einstein's special relativity:
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity)
        
       | tzs wrote:
       | A little background based on a few articles about this plus my
       | recollection of PBS Space Time videos on this: There are at least
       | two ways to try to figure out the rate of expansion of the
       | universe (which is called the Hubble Constant).
       | 
       | * From variations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) which
       | are the result of certain conditions in the early universe it is
       | possible to figure out what the expansion rate should be now.
       | 
       | * From looking at very distant galaxies and noting how far away
       | they are and how fast they are receding from us the expansion
       | rate can be calculated.
       | 
       | Theory says that these should give the same expansion rate. When
       | the rates were first found using those two methods they gave
       | different results, but the error bars on both were large enough
       | to overlap. People expected then that further refinement of both
       | methods to decrease the error bars would converge to some common
       | value.
       | 
       | That did not happen. Refinement of the CMB measurements got to 67
       | +/- 0.5, and refinement of the galaxy distance/speed method got
       | to 73 +/- 1. Those do not overlap.
       | 
       | This non-overlap between the possible ranges given by the two
       | methods is called the Hubble tension, and it is one of the most
       | irksome problems in cosmology.
       | 
       | Possible explanations include:
       | 
       | * Some sort of error in how we measure the variations in the CMB.
       | 
       | * Some sort of error in the distant galaxy distance or speed
       | measurements, which until the James Webb telescope were almost
       | entirely Hubble telescope measurements.
       | 
       | * We're missing something in our understanding of the physics.
       | 
       | These new results add a bunch of data from the James Webb
       | telescope, which observes in different wavelengths than Hubble.
       | These results fit with the Hubble measurements.
       | 
       | They do _not_ resolve the Hubble tension. What they do is remove
       | most doubt that the distant galaxy results involve some sort of
       | Hubble measurement error. I believe cosmologists are pretty
       | confident of the CMB measurements, and so this will be
       | interpreted as telling us that the Hubble tension is not just a
       | problem with our measurements. There is either physics that we
       | got wrong or physics we need to discover.
        
         | rf15 wrote:
         | This, together with the endless philosophising around dark
         | energy, dark matter and whatnot paints a pretty strong arrow
         | towards our models having some flaws when it comes to their
         | large-scale application. I hope to live long enough to see
         | where we made our mistake and get a better model.
        
           | pishpash wrote:
           | Almost every model we build of more trivial things based on
           | observation always turns out to be not really right. I cannot
           | imagine why one of the universe that has had multiple version
           | updates in the last 100 years to not also be grossly
           | mistaken. I also don't expect the full model to be simple or
           | beautiful. We may be thinking wishfully based on massive
           | extrapolation and cutting corners to suit our narrow view
           | into the world.
        
       | rmbyrro wrote:
       | The scale of the universe sometimes feels terrifying to me
        
         | swader999 wrote:
         | It's not if you consider we can only move at less than the
         | speed of light or that we go on forever.
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | The thing that strikes me, is the detailed image description.
       | That looks like good fodder for an ML visitor.
        
       | harywilke wrote:
       | Dr.Becky goes over this in a video [0] from a year ago about the
       | divergent results obtained by the two main ways we measure the
       | rate of expansion. Cosmic Microwave Background Vs. Supernovae. As
       | the accuracy of each method has improved, the end results have
       | diverged.
       | 
       | [0] 'theJWST just made the "Crisis in Cosmology" WORSE'
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hps-HfpL1vc&t=858s
        
       | luxuryballs wrote:
       | those are some pretty old energy waves
        
       | arcastroe wrote:
       | I've asked this question before, but I don't think I received a
       | good answer, so figured I'd try asking again.
       | 
       | How do we know that galaxies are accelerating away from us and
       | not moving at constant speed? People often point to the
       | observation that the further away a galaxy is, the faster it
       | appears to be moving away from us, implying acceleration.
       | 
       | However, wouldn't we expect to see the same observation even
       | without any acceleration? Imagine there are some objects in space
       | all moving in random directions and speeds, relative to Earth.
       | After long enough time, all objects will appear to be moving away
       | from Earth, even if they were moving towards it initially. And
       | after long enough time, the objects that move fastest should be
       | farthest away, by the simple definition of speed!
       | 
       | In short, even if galaxies weren't accelerating, we would still
       | see that the further away a galaxy is, the faster it recedes.
        
         | Steuard wrote:
         | You're right: the "more distant galaxies are moving away
         | faster" point is just Hubble's original observation of an
         | expanding universe. It's not an argument for cosmic
         | acceleration. (If you see people making that claim, they're
         | probably either speaking carelessly or not experts themselves.)
         | 
         | The conclusion that the expansion is accelerating was a quite
         | recent result: 1990s, I believe. It's based on careful
         | measurements of supernova explosions of a type with computable
         | intrinsic brightness in increasingly distant galaxies, and the
         | exact pattern seen in their apparent redshifts vs. apparent
         | brightness. It was a shocking discovery when it came out, with
         | two separate teams announcing the result pretty much neck and
         | neck. There's also independent and compatible evidence for
         | acceleration from the exact pattern of variations in the
         | temperature of the cosmic microwave background seen at
         | different points in the sky.
        
         | runeb wrote:
         | Their light is more red shifted the farther away they are. I'm
         | no expert on this, but I believe in a constant-speed scenario
         | they would have equal red shift no matter the distance
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | If we can travel faster than light does it blow up the theory
       | that the universe expands? Because if we can travel faster than
       | light the universe is theoretically be infinite if I can go to a
       | point pas the furthest reaches of stars/matter.
        
       | mjfl wrote:
       | It is very fortunate that the universe is expanding. This
       | provides a virtually unlimited source of energy.
        
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