[HN Gopher] The Ruin of Mumbai
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       The Ruin of Mumbai
        
       Author : torts
       Score  : 74 points
       Date   : 2024-03-08 10:56 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (asteriskmag.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (asteriskmag.com)
        
       | alephnerd wrote:
       | The height restrictions and rent control are overstated.
       | 
       | If they were a blocker to slum redevelopment, then similar cities
       | like Delhi (or even neighboring Thane and Navi Mumbai, or nearby
       | Pune) would be equally as decrepit, which they are not.
       | 
       | The major issue is land procurement and failure to minimize
       | encroachment.
       | 
       | India, being a democracy, is limited by public demands. As cities
       | became economic growth engines, a lot of people migrated, but
       | were unable to get housing, and then autarkic India had (and in a
       | lot of cases, still has) socialist style "Development
       | Authorities" manage housing construction within the Tier 1
       | cities.
       | 
       | The development authorities were notorious slow at developing new
       | property, so migrants were forced to encroach land and build
       | slums.
       | 
       | As the first generation of slum dwellers succeeded economically,
       | they began moving out of the slums, but rented out the slum
       | property to newer migrants, and kept a hold on the slum
       | properties waiting for a government to eventually legalize those
       | slum holdings and transfer the land rights to the "basti" owner
       | (this kind of transfer has happened before - most recently in
       | Odisha, Delhi, and Punjab).
       | 
       | Unlike in China, India's democracy (no matter how flawed it is)
       | prevents severely underfunded urban local governments from
       | preventing this encroachment, and politicians actually liked
       | this, as slum dwellers formed voting blocks, and would de facto
       | collateralize their land to grey market financial institutions,
       | which themselves worked under the auspices of those local
       | politicans.
       | 
       | And finally, slum dwellers would organize and place political
       | minefields. There's a reason why tiny temples, mosques, and other
       | religious institutions dot urban India - they aren't just for
       | veneration but also tools to prevent demolitions, as dwellers can
       | rally around protecting the temple or mosque from being
       | demolished (along with the neighborhood), and politicians would
       | have to back down, as Indian elections are won on extremely small
       | margins.
       | 
       | This economics of encroachment occurs in similar developing
       | country like Brazil, Phillipines, and Vietnam as well as former
       | developing economics like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
       | 
       | Slum dwellers are not idiots - just poor. They know they land
       | they are on is worth millions, and most governments are not going
       | to use force to kick them out, and if they do, they WILL fight
       | back. The land they encroached is the closest thing they have to
       | a nest egg.
        
         | selimthegrim wrote:
         | What do you make of the DDC trying to demolish the mosque in
         | Delhi currently then?
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | Mixed bag.
           | 
           | They shouldn't have demolished the historic Akhondji masjid
           | (it is truly ancient), but the slum built around it was built
           | on land that was encroached on.
           | 
           | Delhi is ruled by the opposition AAP.
           | 
           | It's not like Temples don't get demolished either [0], and 4
           | temples were demolished along with the Akhondji Masjid [1]
           | during the Mehrauli demolishment drive.
           | 
           | If it was truly egregious Islamophobia, Indian allies like
           | the UAE and KSA would have called it out like they did Nupur
           | Sharma's extremely insensitive statement 2 years ago.
           | 
           | [0] - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/city/delhi/d
           | elhi-...
           | 
           | [1] - https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-
           | news/mosque-temp...
        
       | jkic47 wrote:
       | In fraught issues like rent control and housing, I often see
       | claims like the one in the article that people moving to cities
       | can see up to a 30% increase in income, but they never seem to
       | factor in the increase in costs, which could be far higher than
       | 30%, leading to a net loss.
       | 
       | Same story with global warming claiming additional deaths due to
       | increased temperatures without the corresponding statistic on
       | deaths due to cold. I am not claiming the point is invalid - just
       | that a fuller picture can make the conversation richer.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | Rent control and Height restrictions aren't enforced in India.
         | 
         | Property contract disputes in India follow the principle of
         | "Jiski lathi, uski bhains" (might makes right // That cow
         | belongs to the guy with the bamboo or iron rod).
         | 
         | The landlord or the tenent can enforce their ideal level of
         | rent based on who can force the other to comply, and civil
         | courts have decades long backlogs so nothing will get done -
         | property disputes make up the majority of cases in India.
        
         | marcinzm wrote:
         | > Same story with global warming claiming additional deaths due
         | to increased temperatures without the corresponding statistic
         | on deaths due to cold. I am not claiming the point is invalid -
         | just that a fuller picture can make the conversation richer.
         | 
         | Studies on this definitely account for both. Of course, given
         | that cold related deaths are already significantly fewer than
         | heat deaths there isn't much to talk about beyond noting the
         | fact that they're essentially irrelevant.
         | 
         | This of course highlights why if one sees something "obvious"
         | that experts miss the response should be to dig into why
         | they're not accounting for it versus assuming they're idiots or
         | malicious.
        
         | taneq wrote:
         | There are some pitfalls in comparing percentages like this. Net
         | profit (or disposable income - it's weird how different the
         | connotations of these terms are) is a much better measure.
         | Consider a farm worker who's paid $10/day, and pays $1/day for
         | bread and board. They move to the city where they're paid
         | $13/day and pay $3/day in living expenses. That's 30% more pay
         | but 300% higher costs. Assuming all else is equal (quality of
         | life etc) are they better off?
        
           | anonyfox wrote:
           | if finances remain equal-ish, then I'd say it depends on the
           | individuum and exact circumstances.
           | 
           | For example I hate living in the countryside or small village
           | - I'd always pick the densest/urban/modern area I can afford
           | to live, just because I crave the buzzing energy and constant
           | novelty and stimulating options around. But other people can
           | be the exact opposite.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | You can also have situations (especially in poor countries)
           | where you go from your $10/day _but able to survive if work
           | stops_ , because you can just grow some food for yourself,
           | survive on very little, etc to being absolutely dependent on
           | a salary or social support if work fails.
        
       | phowat wrote:
       | I 100% clicked the link expecting an article about how the open
       | source PBX software Asterisk was being used in some nefarious
       | way.
        
       | user_7832 wrote:
       | As a Mumbaiker, I would also like to provide a bit of context
       | that may not be obvious (but unfortunately isn't surprising) -
       | the BMC (Municipal Corporation) is considered quite
       | ineffective/corrupt/lazy by most citizens, despite being the
       | richest municipal body in the world (with a budget of [?]59,954
       | crore this year, which I tried to convert to USD but I can't keep
       | track of all zeros). Every year there are numerous deaths
       | especially during heavy rain in monsoon, from potholes flipping
       | bikers to the river not being desilted. There are valid arguments
       | (eg lots of pollution in the river) but the end result isn't
       | pretty.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brihanmumbai_Municipal_Corpora...
       | has more info including controversies.
       | 
       | Also, regarding housing specifically, due to a perpetual
       | population growth and inflation, many buildings sit empty because
       | builders know that people _will_ cave in, even if property is
       | temporarily overpriced and no one is buying them in the short
       | term. Additionally legal disputes often block up other buildings,
       | resulting in large dilapidated buildings sitting in the middle of
       | busy /high-value areas but providing no benefit.
        
         | shrikant wrote:
         | [?]59,954 crore is roughly USD $7.2 billion.
        
         | donbox wrote:
         | INR 59,954 crore is around 7 Billion USD.
        
           | anon291 wrote:
           | I was going to say... for a city with a population almost
           | that of the entire state of California, this is hardly
           | anything. To put that in perspective, California spends
           | 200-300 billion each year.
        
             | snapplebobapple wrote:
             | How do you figured that? Average salary in california is
             | around 10 times that of mumbai and population of greater
             | mumbai is slightly more than half california. That adjusts
             | the comparison to roughly 140 billion mumvai vs 200 billion
             | california. So mumbai is marginally more efficient than one
             | of the worst run us states by roughetrics. I suspect it
             | should be considered worse because corruption at 8k a year
             | average income cuts a lot worse than equivalent percentage
             | corruption at 80k income
        
               | red-iron-pine wrote:
               | PPP doesn't really translate to municipal budgets, and
               | it's also painfully clear from the grandparent that the
               | huge budget doesn't translate to much, even after PPP
               | comparisons.
        
             | user_7832 wrote:
             | Possibly, but things like roads and waterways are much
             | fewer/smaller/shorter, as Mumbai is geographically an
             | extremely small city for its population. It becomes even
             | more obvious statistically once you remove the national
             | park in the north from land area calculations.
             | 
             | In any case, there are lots of factors, but I think most
             | Mumbaikars would agree that the city could be run much
             | better with similar/the same resources.
        
             | blackhawkC17 wrote:
             | Many people seem to struggle with the difference between
             | absolute and proportional values.
             | 
             | Something similar in my country (Nigeria). Many people keep
             | pointing out that Lagos, our most crowded and number one
             | commercial city, has an annual budget of roughly $1
             | billion, meaning there should be world-class
             | infrastructure.
             | 
             | Until I point out that $1 billion is roughly $50 annually
             | per person. Even accounting for labor and cost of living
             | differences, you need at least 20x that before you start
             | expecting world-class infrastructure.
             | 
             | Sure, labor is cheaper, but power plants, buses, and trains
             | are mostly imported and cost a damn lot. No way you're
             | getting first-world infrastructure with third-world budget
             | and taxes.
        
               | danlugo92 wrote:
               | > Until I point out that $1 billion is roughly $50
               | annually per person.
               | 
               | I wanted to make a comparison with New York Metropolitan
               | Area and they spend 20 billion only in traffic stuff.
        
             | dilawar wrote:
             | By purchase parity, 1 dollar is about 23 rupees while
             | exchange rate is around 80. So roughly 4x multiplier is
             | needed to .
             | 
             | In purchase parity, it's 27 billions dollar vs 200-300
             | billion of California. Still 10x less.
             | 
             | I wanted to complain about bangalore garbage and traffic
             | but it will take too much space.
        
         | geodel wrote:
         | > the BMC (Municipal Corporation) is considered quite
         | ineffective/corrupt/lazy by most citizens, despite being the
         | richest municipal body in the world
         | 
         | Well when one divide total budget by population per person
         | won't be much. Economist and even politicians mentioned as much
         | that Indian tax revenues per person are 1/20th of first world
         | but regardless they do think they deserve facilities comparable
         | to developed nations.
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | Municipal Government in India answer to and get funded
           | directly by either State Level planning authorities or
           | Central Government IAS.
           | 
           | Municipal Corporations all over India have minimal autonomy
           | outside of PWD procurement [0].
           | 
           | [0] - https://www.impriindia.com/insights/urban-governance-
           | in-indi...
        
           | user_7832 wrote:
           | Yep that's a fair point, the tax burden in India in general
           | is pretty skewed, however worth noting that Mumbai pays a
           | fairly significant amount of it (especially when factoring in
           | indirect and non income taxes). Iirc BMC's budget is very
           | directly from taxes (very little/no loans or other handouts,
           | though I could be wrong about this).
           | 
           | (Edit: quick googling shows property tax to be the biggest
           | current revenue stream since octroi has gone away after the
           | introduction of a national GST.)
        
             | geodel wrote:
             | Well the flip side of spending all tax revenue of city like
             | Mumbai locally instead of statewide or nation wide there
             | will be even more lopsided development which turns to ever
             | more people coming to Mumbai making infrastructure,
             | pollution and so many other problems worse.
        
       | anon291 wrote:
       | I have never lived in Bombay, but my parents grew up there, and
       | our family history there goes back to before it was even a city.
       | Indians have an insatiable appetite for centralized economic
       | planning that has done nothing but hurt the country. For me, it's
       | inexplicable, but it's often like trying to talk at a wall. It
       | makes American NIMBY's look like transit advocates.
       | 
       | And for all the fascination with bureaucracy, the bureaucracy is
       | never efficient. My aunts and uncles who landlorded there for a
       | while had so much trouble evicting tenants for things that would
       | be trivial in America, such as failure to pay. Courts, municipal
       | officials, just drag their feet. It's a cultural problem, and
       | shocks the American conscience.
       | 
       | Such a sad squandering of potential and a good case study in how
       | culture absolutely affects outcomes.
        
         | gedy wrote:
         | > And for all the fascination with bureaucracy, the bureaucracy
         | is never efficient
         | 
         | Isn't that perhaps the point? Corruption allows everyone to get
         | their hand in the till for money, power, etc. Maybe this drives
         | the "central planning" so that the elites get their graft too.
        
         | addicted wrote:
         | This comment is almost entirely ahistorical.
         | 
         | India as a country is about 75 years old. It's ridiculously
         | young.
         | 
         | India is the largest democracy in the world despite having half
         | as many official languages as American states, and an order of
         | magnitude more spoken languages, cultures and religions.
         | 
         | Despite this India has remained a largely integral state, has
         | seen authoritarian rule and seen it off in a few years, unlike
         | nearly every other democracy formed around the same time has
         | never been ruled by the military for even a moment.
         | 
         | The greatest economic miracle in the history of human
         | civilization, the growth of China was a product of almost
         | complete central planning to the point that the state also
         | coercively controlled the number of kids you could have.
         | Central planning is clearly no barrier to growth.
         | 
         | India, on the other hand has a highly federal system of
         | government. Arguably the last few years have seen a lot more
         | top down management but that's a result of the party in federal
         | government also being in power in most state governments.
         | 
         | The current debate playing out in the world is the exact
         | opposite of what you're claiming. China's success has made
         | central planning and authoritarianism appear highly desirable.
         | India's slower growth has made it appear that federalism and
         | democracy are not popular.
         | 
         | However, as the pandemic is showing, when authoritarians mess
         | up they tend to cause irreparable harm whereas democracies are
         | able to absorb a lot more hits.
         | 
         | Your vision of India is a mirror house vision of a 50 year old
         | India at best.
         | 
         | (Btw, even the court and municipal problems you're referring to
         | is clearly not cultural. India's slow legal system is very
         | clearly a result of sticking to an antiquated British system
         | and not modernizing it to allow, for example, out of court
         | settlements, which has led to massive backlogs that are now
         | being addressed.
         | 
         | And in terms of municipal actions the Indian state is
         | addressing those issues to the point where there are many
         | functions where the Indian equivalent are significantly faster
         | than the U.S. Try getting a passport in the U.S. today vs
         | India.
         | 
         | Try making payments. India is far ahead of the U.S. which is
         | frankly shocking considering the massive head start the U.S.
         | has here.
         | 
         | Try IDs. While Apple is celebrating something like 4 states
         | doing a pilot system of digital IDs which hasn't even grown in
         | the 5 years or so, nearly every municipal ID in India today is
         | digital.
         | 
         | Most civil functions can now be done online.
         | 
         | India has also drastically improved government distributions.
         | While the US government was sending literal checks through the
         | mail over COVID Indian monetary benefits are now directly
         | deposited in a bank account.
        
           | anon291 wrote:
           | > Your vision of India is a mirror house vision of a 50 year
           | old India at best.
           | 
           | Well realistically, this is when my family left, but the
           | article seems to cite the same pain points today.
           | 
           | Also, I think this comment exemplifies some of the issues
           | with Indian society. The moment one levels a criticism,
           | suddenly, the rather pointed criticism is taken as a
           | criticism of society as a whole.
           | 
           | At no point did I criticise India's democracy or accuse it of
           | authoritarianism. There are many centrally planned economies
           | without authoritarianism. Nor is central planning associated
           | with military juntas / coups. At no point did I say anything
           | negative about India's growth story, which as you point out,
           | is astronomical, but slower than China.
           | 
           | Overall, I think India's great. I'm just pointing out some
           | issues that I see. It would behoove you, and Indians more
           | generally, to listen to the criticism without getting
           | confused over what's being criticised.
           | 
           | Also, the existence of centralized planning in a more
           | concentrated form in China does not mean the centralized
           | planning in India cannot be criticized. Again, we must stay
           | tuned to exactly the criticisms I've outlined, not strawman.
           | 
           | > India, on the other hand has a highly federal system of
           | government. Arguably the last few years have seen a lot more
           | top down management but that's a result of the party in
           | federal government also being in power in most state
           | governments.
           | 
           | The US, Australia, Canada, etc all have federal systems. This
           | is hardly an excuse.
           | 
           | > And in terms of municipal actions the Indian state is
           | addressing those issues to the point where there are many
           | functions where the Indian equivalent are significantly
           | faster than the U.S. Try getting a passport in the U.S. today
           | vs India.
           | 
           | How long does an Indian passport take?
           | 
           | > India has also drastically improved government
           | distributions. While the US government was sending literal
           | checks through the mail over COVID Indian monetary benefits
           | are now directly deposited in a bank account.
           | 
           | Again, however ahead India is of the US in terms of bank
           | deposits, does not detract from the criticism that the Indian
           | state and Indian culture as a whole is very into central
           | bureaucracy. Actually, I think the check thing is yet another
           | good example. Checks are an extremely distributed form of
           | payment. Basically anyone can write a check on a piece of
           | paper and banks will accept it (within reason). I can have
           | anyone print my checks, and as long as my information is
           | correct, the bank will cash it. Moreover, check fraud is
           | taken very seriously, so that people aren't just doing this
           | willy nilly. As a whole, the US is fairly high trust, so this
           | distributed model works well, and has certain advantages,
           | such as being able to cash checks anywhere, the ability to
           | easily transfer a check to another payee (just write a new
           | endorsement), etc. I'm not sure what Indian system you're
           | referring to, but for me personally, I like being able to
           | hand over money without having to give my life's information
           | to private brokerages.
        
             | valarauko wrote:
             | > How long does an Indian passport take?
             | 
             | I'd applied for a passport in the summer of 2020, during
             | the height of the COVID lockdown. I could get an
             | appointment at the passport office within a week (socially
             | distanced, reduced capacity), and had my passport in hand
             | the next week. Prepandemic I'd say the average was about 10
             | days, for passport renewal. A fresh passport takes more
             | time since it requires 'police verification', where a cop
             | from your local police station goes physically to your
             | address to verify you actually live there, and gets
             | attestations from your neighbors on how long you've lived
             | at this address.
        
         | valarauko wrote:
         | > our family history there goes back to before it was even a
         | city
         | 
         | Same - my Pathareprabhu ancestors have been in the area since
         | about the 13th century, when the only other people in the
         | region were the Koli fisherfolk.
        
         | elevatedastalt wrote:
         | > evicting tenants for things that would be trivial in America,
         | such as failure to pay
         | 
         | Evicting tenants is a MASSIVE pain in the ass in many American
         | states.
        
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