[HN Gopher] In Mongolia, a killer winter is ravaging herds and a...
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       In Mongolia, a killer winter is ravaging herds and a way of life
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 114 points
       Date   : 2024-03-07 01:54 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (e360.yale.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (e360.yale.edu)
        
       | Venkatesh10 wrote:
       | With all the money free flowing in the world and with experience
       | to games like city builder, Builderment.. we can easily share
       | them food, resources from tropical regions.
        
         | netsharc wrote:
         | Easy is debatable, unless you have a huge fleet of helicopters
         | (or maybe drones, because hey, it's the 21st century for some
         | parts of the world). I've been to Mongolia, the vast emptiness
         | is amazing, the article talks about roads but most of it is
         | unpaved dirt track in the steppe. Now imagine a thick layer of
         | snow covering that...
        
           | COGlory wrote:
           | Yeah it's tough for folks to understand the sheer vastness of
           | a place like Mongolia. Combined with a lack of
           | infrastructure, it's still a really unforgiving area.
        
         | xenospn wrote:
         | When I was in Mongolia, I met a group of American peacecorps
         | who helped nomads with planning for winter, and taught them how
         | to better manage their resources to avoid this exact scenario.
         | As soon as they left, the locals reverted back to their old way
         | of doing things.
        
           | heisenzombie wrote:
           | Perhaps there was more to it, but as told -- that's a story
           | of incredible hubris! Truly amazing to fly across the world
           | to tell Mongolians how to live on the steppe.
        
             | marssaxman wrote:
             | It sounds like the Mongolian hosts showed remarkable
             | courtesy by accommodating their guests' odd preferences
             | during the visit.
        
             | xenospn wrote:
             | I would imagine this was a joint venture between the
             | Mongolian and American governments, but you're right.
        
             | RealityVoid wrote:
             | While I get where you're coming from, it's not unheard of
             | cultures finding a local maxima that they are unwilling to
             | leave. I guess it's hard to judge from the outside?
        
               | sct202 wrote:
               | Peace Corps is especially notorious for sending
               | inexperienced agriculture volunteers who's expertise is
               | volunteering 2 months at a WWOOF organic farm, so I would
               | not be surprised if they were just clueless new grads
               | thinking they were saving the world.
        
             | paulcole wrote:
             | Isn't it hubris to think that someone who flew across the
             | world to try to help you isn't worth listening to?
             | 
             | And afterall it's the Mongolians who might starve. Any port
             | in a storm.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Depends on when they showed up. The helpful Americans,
               | that is, in relation to the killer winter.
               | 
               | Judging from a lot of HN discussions so, Americans should
               | really understand the rwluctance of anyone to listen to
               | people from other countries explaining how things should
               | be done. Exihibit A through Z: every single discussion
               | about health care or city planning. Or gun control.
        
               | bcrosby95 wrote:
               | But we're exceptional - they would never work _here_
               | because there 's no way we could manage those things
               | without screwing it up.
        
               | empath-nirvana wrote:
               | The Mongolians have been thriving in the steppes for
               | thousands of years.
        
               | paulcole wrote:
               | Isn't it hubris to think that someone who flew across the
               | world to try to help you isn't worth listening to?
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Anyone with the money can fly across the world to try to
               | help. That doesn't make the help automatically useful.
        
             | randomopining wrote:
             | Yeah sharing knowledge for free is definitely hubris. For
             | sure.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Sure it is, if you have no idea if your knowledge is
               | actully usefull and you push it anyway.
               | 
               | Just imagine how you feel if someone, say a consultant or
               | a agile master, shows up at your work and tells how to do
               | your job without having any experience with it, or the
               | environment you are doing it for. There are even multiple
               | threads on HN every week accusing those consultants of
               | hubris in various ways.
        
               | SR2Z wrote:
               | Presumably they didn't just fly in and wing it, and it's
               | kind of a given that any solutions to this problem will
               | be different to the status quo.
               | 
               | The only thing that shows more hubris than telling
               | foreigners how to live is foreigners dying en masse
               | because they refuse to change their way of life - see,
               | America on cars or gun control.
        
               | dahart wrote:
               | Correct, it definitely can be if it's unsolicited advice
               | and/or if the "knowledge" is low quality, incomplete,
               | difficult to apply, or just ignorant of Chesterton's
               | Fence.
        
               | antisthenes wrote:
               | Yep, snooty early 20-somethings flying halfway across the
               | world to teach people with hundreds years of experience.
               | 
               | For sure that's not just virtue signaling and youthful
               | delusion. For sure.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Let me drop by your workplace and tell you how to do your
               | job. And call you ungrateful when you don't listen to me.
               | I mean, I have no idea what you do for a living and you
               | have no reason to believe I have some special expertise
               | you lack. But hey, free knowledge right?
        
             | blacklion wrote:
             | There was TED Talk from person who tried to teach some
             | African people to grow tomatoes. When tomatoes were almost-
             | reap there were a large herd of hippos and eat all
             | tomatoes, completely, fruits and foliage.
             | 
             | At least, this person (sorry, I can not recall name)
             | acknowledge, that it was naive and hubris!
             | 
             | UPDATE: I was not first:
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39640882 need to read
             | whole thread before answering!
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | As others pointed out already, Mongols are very polite and
           | friendly to visitors. Even people who want to tell them how
           | to live in their own steppes.
        
             | sgift wrote:
             | "Want to tell how to live" - what a bullshit way to read
             | the GP comment. People starved, others tried to help them
             | not to starve. They didn't "tell them how to live". If
             | Mongols want to live like before and starve, sure, that's
             | their privilege, but then I'd say everyone else has done
             | their part. It's not the job of the world to help someone
             | who wants to suffer.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | No idea when OPs story happened, but from his use of
               | "help prepare for winter", I concluded it was _before_
               | the current disaster. Pretty hard to prepare for
               | something when you are right in the middle of it.
               | 
               | And yes, that is hubris.
               | 
               | Also, your comment shows are very deep and troubling lack
               | of empathy. On top of quite a large amount of ignorance.
        
               | godshatter wrote:
               | All this depends on whether the advice was actually
               | objectively good advice or not. Is it hubris to give
               | someone information you think may help them? This all
               | hinges on whether or not they decided not to take the
               | advice because it was crap advice or because they were
               | set in their ways too much to make use of it.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Before you give advice, you ask questions and build the
               | necessary basis that allows you to adopt your knowledge
               | to the particular use case. If you do not do that, you
               | fail. You even fail with good ideas, because you do not
               | get buy in from the people.
               | 
               | So yes, hubris is a rather good word for that kind of
               | behaviour.
        
               | godshatter wrote:
               | Sure, asking questions and building rapport helps... and
               | we have no idea if they did that or not. We don't know
               | how they came about giving their advice to those
               | particular people, we don't know what that advice was,
               | and we don't know why they refused to heed it.
               | 
               | Even if I had the urge to judge them on whether or not
               | they were showing hubris in that situation, I would have
               | to conclude I don't have enough information to do so.
        
           | mmsimanga wrote:
           | I think change is gradual not sudden. It tends to be
           | incremental and also tends to be specific to one area. Often
           | if you are involved in the change you don't notice it as
           | much. My grandmother passed over 20 years ago. As a result of
           | her passing away I didn't go to her village for close on 15
           | years. When I did go the changes I noticed were astonishing
           | to me. 15 years back most of the houses were mud huts. Now
           | most are brick building with mud huts being the exception. It
           | took a while.
           | 
           | Anyone who spends time spreading new and improved ways of
           | doing things I urge you to firstly continue to do so and to
           | also realise change is gradual. Humans
        
           | willismichael wrote:
           | That makes me think of this excellent TED talk:
           | https://youtu.be/chXsLtHqfdM?si=kTaxu3KCBEYYadGA
           | 
           | (Spoiler) The TL;DW The presenter participated in a
           | humanitarian group to establish an agricultural project in an
           | African community. The effort was a disaster - hippos emerge
           | from a river and devoured all of the produce. The presenter
           | shares his insights about how to actually help locals by
           | asking questions instead of telling them what to do.
        
           | tiler2915072 wrote:
           | I also met some nz government workers teaching ppl how to
           | farm. They said most Mongolians weren't interested in working
           | with the dirt. Understandable given their long long history
           | as nomads.
        
             | dahart wrote:
             | > They said most Mongolians weren't interested in working
             | with the dirt.
             | 
             | What a strange statement. Most people in most countries
             | aren't interested in "working with the dirt" as their full
             | time occupation. Are they supposed to be interested in
             | working with dirt more than other countries for some
             | reason, and not aim for science, tech, education, finance,
             | arts, etc? I just looked it up, and Mongolia's economy is
             | around 35% mining and agriculture, with 10% of their total
             | GDP from agriculture, which is quite a bit higher than New
             | Zealand, so their statement seems especially ironic. The US
             | and European economies have an even lower fraction of
             | mining and agriculture, and aspire to get away from manual
             | labor, especially involving dirt.
             | 
             | Also don't forget it's much easier to grow things in NZ
             | than Mongolia: "the high altitude, extreme fluctuation in
             | temperature, long winters, and low precipitation provides
             | limited potential for agricultural development. The growing
             | season is only 95 - 110 days. Because of Mongolia's harsh
             | climate, it is unsuited to most cultivation."
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolia#Agriculture
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | "Agriculture" as a category includes livestock and
               | herding, which make up something like 80% of the
               | Mongolian agricultural industry.
        
               | dahart wrote:
               | Yeah, correct, because it makes more economic sense to
               | herd than farm, for reasons you and I have both given. It
               | doesn't make sense nor help anything for foreigners to
               | waltz in and proclaim Mongolians aren't interested,
               | right?
        
               | robocat wrote:
               | > 10% of their total GDP from agriculture, which is quite
               | a bit higher than New Zealand
               | 
               | Meat was 11% of NZ export income: a huge amount more than
               | the 1.5% for Mongolia[1]. GDP is weird, and comparing
               | sectors or countries is hard. Comparing meat since that's
               | closer to the topic.
               | 
               | > long winters, and low precipitation provides limited
               | potential for agricultural development. it is unsuited to
               | most cultivation
               | 
               | A better comparison is between the South Island of New
               | Zealand and Mongolia. South Island latitude 41S to 47S.
               | Mongolia latitude 41N to 50N. The South Island has "high-
               | country farms" but yes New Zealand farming is far
               | different from Mongolia where the country's altitude is
               | mostly between say 800m and 1600m (along with continental
               | weather). Our agriculture is very different from
               | Mongolia's (and ours is variable: floods in some areas
               | and bad droughts in other areas).
               | 
               | [1] Data: Mongolia Exports of meat and edible meat offal
               | was US$19.73 Million during 2021, Mongolia of total
               | Exports 1324.80. New Zealand had NZD77.2 billion exports,
               | with NZD8.6 billion exports for meat and offal.
               | 
               | > They said most Mongolians weren't interested in working
               | with the dirt.
               | 
               | (Edit: removed inane opinion). Dissecting a second-hand
               | sentence is pointless. Without more context, we can't
               | know what they meant or what they were trying to
               | communicate or the value of their opinion.
        
               | dahart wrote:
               | That's all fair, I'd delete my comment if I could.
               | 
               | > Dissecting a second-hand sentence is pointless. Without
               | more context, we can't know what they meant or what they
               | were trying to communicate or the value of their opinion.
               | 
               | Totally agree. Sharing the second-hand sentence out of
               | context also makes little sense, no? That was the only
               | point I intended to make, and I should have left out the
               | sloppy economic comparison.
        
             | AlotOfReading wrote:
             | Mongolia is an incredibly shitty place to farm outside a
             | couple of valleys with nice microclimates. There's very
             | little infrastructure for the equipment and resources, and
             | any farmers would be competing with Chinese farmers that
             | don't have these constraints and can hit vastly lower price
             | points. Farming is a difficult life in the best of
             | situations, but not doing it in Mongolia is simply common
             | sense.
        
           | pradn wrote:
           | The baseline international volunteers need to demonstrate is
           | that they provided benefit higher than just giving away the
           | cost of their flights to get there.
           | 
           | IE: American volunteer groups going to poor countries to
           | build them schools.
        
         | eunos wrote:
         | They can easily ask China and Russia (and realistically only
         | those two can help massively). Likely they are too prideful tho
        
           | rjzzleep wrote:
           | Can you elaborate? Because as it stands the US throws away
           | 30-40 percent of its own food supply[1].
           | 
           | When Russia supplied free grain to Africa, because they
           | couldn't sell it due to sanctions the West complained that
           | accepting free grain would be "too dangerous a price to
           | pay"[2]
           | 
           | [1] https://www.rts.com/resources/guides/food-waste-america/
           | 
           | [2]
           | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-23/russia-
           | in...
        
             | blue_pants wrote:
             | How generous of them
             | 
             | https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-russian-stolen-
             | grain...
             | 
             | https://web.archive.org/web/20220627050935/https://www.bbc.
             | c...
        
             | empath-nirvana wrote:
             | Shipping free grain to places with food security problems
             | actually does make the problem worse, because it bankrupts
             | local farmers. It's fine in an emergency, but in general
             | it's better to subsidize local farmers than to send food.
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | Yeah, of course. All famines and food shortages happen
           | because the people faced with a shortage are to proud to ask
           | for help... Rihjt...
           | 
           | Any other deep thoughts you want to share?
        
           | DinaCoder99 wrote:
           | Sure, but they can also easily ask anyone. I don't know why
           | it makes sense to shrug off that responsibility onto some
           | nationalist bullshit.
        
         | thriftwy wrote:
         | The problem here is not simply food security, but the fact is
         | that herds represented the capital those rural mongolian held,
         | and now it's gone.
        
         | philomath_mn wrote:
         | Life is not a video game
        
           | mewpmewp2 wrote:
           | Source?
        
       | mikhailfranco wrote:
       | The Mongols deliberately invaded Russia in winter, for two
       | reasons:
       | 
       | - the wide rivers were frozen, so they could just ride across
       | 
       | - Moscow is 15degC warmer than Ulaan Bataar in winter (on
       | average)
       | 
       | Didn't work out so well for Napoleon or Hitler.
        
         | whobre wrote:
         | Not that you are wrong, but Moscow was irrelevant at the time
         | of the Mongol invasion.
        
           | cduzz wrote:
           | I think the point was more "they could do it in their
           | underwear because those parts of russia were a tropical
           | paradise compared to where they came from."
        
             | Wytwwww wrote:
             | The climate in Kyiv is relatively mild to what people would
             | generally associate with the "Russian winter".
        
       | mikhailfranco wrote:
       | Yale article linked to climate change.
       | 
       | Not _caused_ by climate change, but it didn 't write itself, so
       | definitely linked to it.
        
         | sjducb wrote:
         | How would you demonstrate whether something is linked to
         | climate change or caused by climate change?
        
           | klyrs wrote:
           | I'm having some trouble with the delivery, but OC seems to be
           | making a joke that climate change didn't directly cause the
           | paper to be written?
        
       | ronzensci wrote:
       | This yale article seems to be heavily 'inspired' by the WHO
       | article:
       | https://www.who.int/mongolia/news/detail/28-02-2024-severe-d...
        
         | tokai wrote:
         | What is your point? It's not plagiarized, and the WHO 'article'
         | is a _press release_. Which is literally published for other
         | journalists to use as primary sources and statements on events.
         | WHO made their statement to explain their involvement in this
         | event _and_ provide information about said event, so it can be
         | disseminated to a wider audience.
         | 
         | Don't throw such accusations around when they so unfounded.
        
       | brabel wrote:
       | > herds are struggling through both a "white" dzud, in which very
       | deep snow hinders their access to grass, and an "iron" dzud, in
       | which a brief thaw is followed by a rapid, hard freeze, locking
       | pastures in ice.
       | 
       | That's the worst... where I live, the temperature tends to get
       | just above zero after snowstorms, just enough to make the snow
       | wet and more compact, and then when it freezes over again it's
       | basically a piece of ice which takes ages to melt later. I
       | suppose that with the weather previously being more stable, it
       | wouldn't do that often in Mongolia? But now that it both snows
       | more and the temperature varies more widely, this is a recipe for
       | disaster. Hope they find ways to adapt with the help of modern
       | tools, but of course it's easier said than done, specially when
       | they probably don't have any money to invest in things that could
       | help and even if they could, the infrastructure just doesn't
       | exist.
        
         | johnchristopher wrote:
         | > Hope they find ways to adapt with the help of modern tools,
         | but of course it's easier said than done, specially when they
         | probably don't have any money to invest in things that could
         | help and even if they could, the infrastructure just doesn't
         | exist.
         | 
         | Only way so far apparently in Mongolia has been to migrate to
         | cities.
        
           | SR2Z wrote:
           | The overwhelming majority (90%+, IIRC) of Mongolia already
           | lives in Ulanbataar.
           | 
           | They have different winter-related problems there (severe
           | coal smog) but at least they're not at the mercy of ice on
           | the pastures.
        
             | prlambert wrote:
             | Not sure why you think that? The nomadic population is
             | between 25%-30%, two sources: 1) World bank gives 25%
             | "around one quarter of households live nomadic life in
             | Mongolia" https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/counting-
             | uncounted-how-... 1) Wikipedia gives 30%, "Approximately
             | 30% of the population is nomadic or semi-nomadic"
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolia.
             | 
             | Population of of Ulaanbataar is 1.6M, Mongolia as a country
             | is 3.3M. So just under 50% live in the capital city.
        
       | redbar0n wrote:
       | Feedback from a friend who lives in the very West Mongolia who
       | read this article:
       | 
       | " This concerns mostly East Mongolia, and it can be a good thing
       | for the nature, even though it is disastrous for many
       | shepherds/herders. It's now more than 3x as many livestock
       | animals in the country compared to when communism fell in 1990.
       | Over-grassing kills the steppes and makes the desert spread in
       | record speed. So if half of the livestock animal population would
       | die, it would be, as said, good for the nature, but crap for the
       | shepherds/herders.
       | 
       | If you want to see the official animal statistics check out
       | http://1212.mn/en "
        
       | asimpleusecase wrote:
       | I lived in Mongolia in 2000-2001 and the winter then was similar
       | . https://reliefweb.int/report/mongolia/mongolia-snowfalls-upd...
       | 
       | It was a disaster for herders. Then in the spring we had a huge
       | outbreak of hoof and mouth.
       | 
       | What is happening right now is tragic- but I suspect that herders
       | will find a way to endure. They are incredibly resilient people.
        
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