[HN Gopher] Why are there so many methane satellites?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Why are there so many methane satellites?
        
       Author : bananaphonehome
       Score  : 69 points
       Date   : 2024-03-05 16:14 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (heatmap.news)
 (TXT) w3m dump (heatmap.news)
        
       | codeflo wrote:
       | I get that methane has a strong greenhouse effect, and that
       | climate models need to account for its concentration to make
       | accurate predictions. But in terms of climate activism, isn't
       | worrying about methane mostly a red herring?
       | 
       | My understanding is that it only stays in the atmosphere for 12
       | years or so. It doesn't accumulate over centuries the way CO2
       | does. This means even if we manage to permanently reduce the
       | amount of methane in the atmosphere, it would only be a one-time
       | effect equivalent to not emitting a certain amount of CO2 once.
       | In the long run, the amount of net carbon added to or removed
       | from the carbon cycle, for example from fossil reservoirs, is the
       | only thing that really matters.
        
         | piva00 wrote:
         | It reacts with ozone to decompose into carbon dioxide, so
         | methane not only has a much higher short-lived effect but later
         | turns into CO2.
        
         | etrautmann wrote:
         | That's exactly why it's also worth targeting. Its short
         | residence time means that addressing methane emissions could
         | make a meaningful impact. It's not zero sum - we should address
         | the low hanging fruit of methane emissions while also
         | decarbonizing.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | You can also repurpose oil and gas industry people and
           | equipment as part of this work (the Inflation Reduction Act
           | appropriated funds for this). This provides a graceful
           | rolloff for these folks and the industry as oil for energy is
           | sunset.
           | 
           | https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/through-president-
           | bidens-b...
           | 
           | https://www.energy.gov/fecm/funding-notice-ira-mitigating-
           | em...
           | 
           | https://www.propublica.org/article/the-rising-cost-of-the-
           | oi...
           | 
           | (US centric, but the model transfers)
        
           | bilsbie wrote:
           | Wouldn't that just embolden folks to emit more co2?
        
             | burkaman wrote:
             | It might if companies sell carbon credits based on methane
             | reduction, but that's an argument against the credits not
             | against the actual mitigation action.
        
           | angiosperm wrote:
           | There is a project to get transcontinental ships to add
           | emitters of FeCl3 to their exhaust stacks, to catalyze
           | oxidation of methane. It seems to be getting enthusiastic
           | uptake from shipowners for reasons unknown to me. 10,000
           | ships emitting 100kg a day would be enough to bring
           | atmospheric methane in line.
           | 
           | (Fe seeded to the ocean surface is negligible. This is not a
           | thing to trigger algae production.)
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane_removal
        
         | trompetenaccoun wrote:
         | That's a misunderstanding. The methane stays in the atmosphere
         | a few years until it reacts with oxygen to CO2. So first you
         | have the multiple times worse effect of CH4 and then you're
         | left with CO2, which is still a greenhouse gas. You're left
         | with CO2 either way, even when you burn the methane. That's why
         | it's so bad. And that's why actually when companies or
         | politicians tell you about "clean" gas, it's very misleading.
         | There is significant leakage in production, transport and
         | storage, before the gas even reaches a consumer.
        
           | codeflo wrote:
           | Sure, but the question is still whether that carbon came from
           | a fossil source or was part of the cycle to begin with.
           | 
           | Let's say a cow eats grass, produces methane, the methane
           | gets converted into CO2, the grass grows back. No net
           | increase in CO2.
           | 
           | If, on the other hand, the methane came from natural gas, you
           | have permanently added carbon to the cycle.
        
             | staunton wrote:
             | The "short-term" effect on warming is quite severe and very
             | relevant. Also, while carbon atoms are conserved, methane
             | is not. You can make a lot of methane from biomass without
             | needing to absorb methane to produce the biomass.
        
             | burkaman wrote:
             | > No net increase in CO2.
             | 
             | Accelerating the "natural" cycle is bad even if there is no
             | net increase. A massive forest fire technically doesn't
             | cause any net increase in CO2, but releasing that much CO2
             | at once causes a lot of problems that wouldn't happen if
             | the same amount were released over hundreds of years as
             | those trees died and decayed.
             | 
             | I'm sure some people would argue that burning oil and gas
             | isn't a net increase either, because all of that carbon
             | came from the atmosphere originally. The important question
             | is what emissions will make life worse for humanity, and
             | what can be done to avoid them. Avoidable methane emissions
             | cause real-world problems regardless of their source.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | > the question is still whether that carbon came from a
             | fossil source or was part of the cycle to begin with.
             | 
             | I don't think that matters anymore. At some point, we
             | wanted to reduce atmospheric CO2 to a tolerable level and
             | an obvious approach was to not add to natural emissions.
             | 
             | Now we just need to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. It
             | doesn't do different things based on its source. If we can
             | reduce it by cutting gas production or by cutting some
             | natural source, we should do it.
        
             | gopher_space wrote:
             | In your thought experiment the number of extant cows is a
             | variable determined by human behavior as opposed to
             | inherent regulation. There might be historical population
             | numbers from specific regions where carbon was in
             | equilibrium but that's certainly not where we're at today
             | nor is it a goal of ours.
             | 
             | I think we're only able see some carbon sources as "outside
             | the cycle" due to our infinitesimal lifespans.
        
           | metaphor wrote:
           | > _So first you have the multiple times worse effect of CH4
           | and then you 're left with CO2, which is still a greenhouse
           | gas._
           | 
           | In case anyone else was wondering, the EPA[1] puts a layman
           | figure on that notional multiple:
           | 
           | >> _Methane 's lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter
           | than carbon dioxide (CO2), but CH4 is more efficient at
           | trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for pound, the comparative
           | impact of CH4 is 28 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year
           | period._
           | 
           | [1] https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-
           | gases#m...
        
             | codeflo wrote:
             | But note that at the end of that century, the CO2 is still
             | there and will continue to heat the atmosphere
             | indefinitely. We really need to stop adding carbon to the
             | cycle; optimizing the form of that carbon can only ever be
             | a secondary goal.
        
         | daedrdev wrote:
         | I think the idea is even in those 12 years, it's way more
         | damaging than CO2 will be. Over 100 years, it is 28 times more
         | damaging than C02, despite not being in the atmosphere for most
         | of that time.
         | 
         | Plus doesn't it just break down into CO2 anyway, meaning that
         | methane does its direct damage, plus creates more CO2.
        
           | codeflo wrote:
           | It only creates "more CO2" if the carbon atom wasn't part of
           | the carbon cycle to begin with. That's the case for natural
           | gas, but not for biological sources.
        
         | Scarblac wrote:
         | The half life is 12 years.
         | 
         | So after 24 there's still a quarter, after 36 still an eighth,
         | etc. It's worse than CO2 for a very long time, and then it is
         | CO2.
        
           | codeflo wrote:
           | I just looked it up to be sure. It seems like the mean
           | lifetime is 12 years, which is the figure one uses for
           | calculations. The half life is shorter.
        
         | seadan83 wrote:
         | I think this is like saying "my car payments are $1000 per
         | month for the next 10 years, and my rent is $30 per month for
         | the next 80 years. For my financial health, why am I worried
         | about the car payment when I will be paying rent for the rest
         | of my life and the car payments will be over relatively soon?"
         | The answer to that is the situation might not work out well..
         | If you have a total lifetime budget of $150k, then those car
         | payments are devastating and you would be bankrupt before those
         | 80 years are over.
         | 
         | A kicker, who is to say that methane emissions are one time -
         | and are not themselves increasing and also ongoing?
         | 
         | The analogy is not quite exact, since the "rent payment" is
         | more akin to be on the order of 200 years or so (and not just
         | the one human lifetime), but hopefully it makes the point.
         | 
         | Last, my understanding of the climate science is that we are
         | very worried about getting through even the next 100 years. To
         | explain, there is a window of time that is almost closed where
         | drastic action can arrest further drastic rates of change in
         | climate (by drastic rates, I'm speaking to 1 to 2 degrees C of
         | warming within that time). It is important therefore we get a
         | handle of this problem sooner rather than later (compare us
         | (humans) "fixing" the methane problem 5 years from now compared
         | to 30 years from now). Also keep in mind there are feedback
         | loops that would be irreversible once triggered.
        
       | toss1 wrote:
       | The TFA answers it's question
       | 
       | >>"So why do we keep launching more?"
       | 
       | >>"Despite the small army of probes in orbit, and an increasingly
       | large fleet of methane-detecting planes and drones closer to the
       | ground, our ability to identify where methane is leaking into the
       | atmosphere is still far too limited. "
       | 
       | And a lot of nice detail is provided about particular satellite
       | programs
        
       | cabirum wrote:
       | Because these are either spy sats or even weapons in space
       | disguised as "methane detectors".
        
         | alwa wrote:
         | "Many" seems to mean only a dozen-odd. Which seems like an
         | awfully small number to image the entire earth at meaningful
         | levels of resolution or frequency.
         | 
         | Which also seems to be the article's lesson.
         | 
         | FWIW, it looks like Starlink alone is up to 5,942 satellites in
         | orbit [0] these days
         | 
         | [0] https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html
        
           | llbeansandrice wrote:
           | > it looks like Starlink alone is up to 5,942 satellites in
           | orbit [0] these days
           | 
           | Starlink operates by far the largest constellation of
           | satellites. Definitely the largest commercial constellation.
           | That's like saying Google "just" serves ~8.5bn search
           | queries/day. I might be mistaking your implication tho.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | the field of view from LEO (for Starlink) is so much smaller
           | than from GEO. I'm not sure what the orbit is for the methane
           | satellites, but the number of satellites alone isn't the only
           | factor.
        
           | angiosperm wrote:
           | If SpaceX cared, the Starlink fleet (both satellites and
           | ground stations) could be the biggest, most sensitive radio
           | telescope in the world, without compromising its usefulness
           | as a network. It points in all directions at the same time.
           | With such sensitivity, a very short "exposure" time is
           | plenty.
           | 
           | Each node records a few cycles of analog waveform at a
           | certain atomic-clock time determined by its position, and
           | forwards that to a common collection point to correlate with
           | the others.
        
             | ianburrell wrote:
             | The Starlink satellite antennas all point at the Earth. The
             | antennas are also small compared to radio telescopes. They
             | also listen to specific frequencies. They would make the
             | best radio telescope for detecting Starlink customers.
             | 
             | The customer antennas would make poor radio telescope
             | because the antennas are small. If using array of small
             | antennas as radio telescopes were possible, we would see
             | them. Using interferometry requires measuring positions and
             | times to sub-wavelength. The Square Kilometer Array is the
             | closest, but it is small extent, with large dishes, and
             | many low-frequency antennas.
        
         | cmyr wrote:
         | If you're going to post quite sensationalist speculation please
         | at least provide some attempt at a source or rationale. It
         | doesn't really pass the sniff test that any goverment would
         | bother with this banal subterfuge when they are more than
         | capable of putting secret payloads into orbit, and have done so
         | many times[1].
         | 
         | e.g. this, just the first relevant thing I could find
         | https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/04/26/spy-satellite-successf...
        
           | iraqmtpizza wrote:
           | Secret payloads which are impossible to track via radar or
           | optically either from the ground or via other satellites?
           | Really? Tell me more.
        
             | wongarsu wrote:
             | There was Zuma, the classified satellite that officially
             | failed to separate from the payload adapter and burned up
             | in the atmosphere but was widely speculated to be a
             | successful test of stealth satellite technology, with the
             | satellite successfully reaching orbit and going dark. A lot
             | of talk about us knowing very little, but everyone loved to
             | show off this graphic from a stealth satellite patent [1].
             | Of course if the NRO does a good job and the technology
             | works we will never know that it does.
             | 
             | 1: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTW_zc_W0AEH3Un?format=jpg&n
             | ame=...
        
               | iraqmtpizza wrote:
               | Widely speculated by advanced radar owners and high-power
               | telecope owners? Can you give me a few names?
        
         | wolverine876 wrote:
         | Why would they need a cover story? They launch spy and other
         | secret satellites all the time, openly announcing when many are
         | launched.
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | The post goes into details about coverage vs. resolution and
         | shows you the data from the satellites and your first thought
         | is that it's all a big lie/coverup?
        
       | stratigos wrote:
       | I would guess for the same reason the government consistently
       | buys $1000 hammers and $5000 toilet seats - to mask some military
       | operation theyd rather not publicly report on.
        
       | Alex3917 wrote:
       | FWIW this video has a good explanation of why this new satellite
       | was launched:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhWcFShBAFE
       | 
       | And this New Yorker article has a much more detailed explanation:
       | 
       | https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-climate-action/a-se...
        
       | jauntywundrkind wrote:
       | With permafrost thawing and arctic warming releasing methane
       | clathrates, methane has been on my mind for a while. I wonder if
       | these satellites will also be useful in detecting dispersed wide-
       | area releases like these?
       | 
       | The current publicly available tools like
       | https://methane.jpl.nasa.gov/ seem to focus on showing methane
       | plumes. Which is good & something we are better positioned to do
       | something about. But I wonder if these tools might help us see
       | both impact of the already underway colossally fast climate
       | change we are undergoing, which will only speed up all the faster
       | as these trapped sources make their way out to the atmosphere.
        
         | mturmon wrote:
         | The OP touches on the question of "why the focus on plumes and
         | not on tundra or wetlands", and has a quote from Andrew Thorpe
         | hinting at an answer.
         | 
         | >> "These types of emissions are really, really important and
         | very poorly understood," [Andrew] said. "So I think there's a
         | heck of a lot of potential to work towards the sectors that
         | have been really hard to do with current technologies."
         | 
         | I try to keep touch with work in this area. I think it's a
         | combination of SNR and resolution/coverage. The CH4 from a gas
         | leak is very concentrated and so it puts a strong imprint on
         | the spectrum of light passing through it. The natural sources
         | are more diffuse and have less contrast with the surroundings.
         | 
         | (For earlier airborne experiments, the JPL team [which included
         | Andrew] was using a simple matched filter aligned with the
         | methane absorption bands - now they may be using something more
         | complex. This was able to run on a computer on the airplane
         | holding the sensor as it flew over regions of interest.)
         | 
         | Anyway, for sources with a lower CH4 concentration, there will
         | be a much weaker spectral signature. It will be hard to
         | distinguish from other influencers like water, aerosols/dust,
         | etc., or from instrumental effects that may be correlated with
         | location. (E.g., "sometimes high water concentration has
         | spectral effects that appear as high CH4 concentration, so our
         | CH4 values over moist areas are sometimes too high.")
         | 
         | You can improve the effective SNR by accumulating results over
         | a larger area (of space or time). As noted in OP, the ability
         | to get large-area, frequent coverage is quite new.
         | 
         | And also, CH4 moves, so to combine measurements taken at
         | different times, you need to account for transport. This is the
         | difference between measuring "concentration" (a quantity we're
         | more-or-less directly measuring) and "flux" (an emission rate
         | over time, which we don't get to measure directly).
         | 
         | As noted in OP, the plumes were a low-hanging fruit (or as they
         | say, a fruit lying on the ground. ;-)
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | There's also the aspect of "Ok, you have detected methane
         | release from melting permafrost, what are you going to do about
         | it?" Capping a leaking oilhead is fairly straightforward. What
         | are you going to do about arctic warming other than the
         | generalized fight against global warming that these projects
         | are already doing?
        
       | FranOntanaya wrote:
       | I'd think it's also useful for economists and investors trying to
       | factor activity from other countries without any middle-people
       | obfuscating the data. That kind of information will always find
       | funding.
        
       | jessriedel wrote:
       | Putting aside the climate aspects and just concentrating on
       | companies that are trying to identify methane leaks: If I have a
       | device that can accurately see methane leaks, I am very surprised
       | it's really more economical to put them on satellites than to
       | operate them locally. Yes, I get that you can have one device in
       | orbit that can do the job for multiple companies, but satellites
       | are just fantastically expensive. Unlike photography, where the
       | alternative is to use an also-expensive airplane, why can't
       | companies just survey from the ground?
        
         | falcolas wrote:
         | It's probably simply efficiency. You can check an entire
         | pipeline faster from space than from the air, and from the air
         | vs. the ground. Those efficiencies save a fair bit of money,
         | and probably also lead to earlier detection.
         | 
         | And while they are expensive, we're talking about low single-
         | digit millions of dollars for a satellite which has a lifespan
         | of 5+ years. Relatively inexpensive for the companies who would
         | want to use them.
        
         | dannyz wrote:
         | The short answer is to measure methane you rely on methane
         | absorption features. To do that you need to be looking at a
         | source through the methane plume, from a satellite this source
         | is the ground. From a ground instrument you can use the sun as
         | a source, but it limits the times of day/direction/location you
         | can measure from.
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | Ground-based sampling has different capabilities, e.g. these
         | days you can mount a small mass spectrometer (see the ones
         | going to Mars, the Moon) or related devices on a drone and get
         | data about a much wider range of particulates and compounds.
         | e.g.
         | 
         | "VOC Sampler on a Drone Assisting in Tracing the Potential
         | Sources by a Dispersion Model - Case Study of Industrial
         | Emissions" (2023)
         | 
         | https://aaqr.org/articles/aaqr-23-07-tn-0169
         | 
         | > "Two plants which manufacture petrochemical products at an
         | industrial complex in Kaohsiung City, southern Taiwan, were
         | applied as the targets for VOCs sampling and further
         | qualitative and quantitative analysis in the laboratory.
         | Aromatic hydrocarbons, including toluene of 433 ppb,
         | ethylbenzene and xylenes of 100-200 ppb and phenol of 111 ppb
         | were identified."
         | 
         | US EPA also has a similar program.
        
         | perrygeo wrote:
         | > satellites are just fantasically expensive
         | 
         | Are they? A CubeSat can be launched for less than $100k, and
         | their payload can contain off-the-shelf consumer hardware.
         | That's what some upper-middle class families pay for an extra
         | car. I think you're overestimating the cost of satellites.
         | 
         | At the same time, you're underestimating the challenges of
         | operating a ground sensor network. How would identify which
         | sites to survey from the ground without a broader search? Would
         | the oil industry get to regulate itself? What about temporal
         | variability or detecting flares? How would you detect new leaks
         | and add new sensors? What about large-scale natural leaks that
         | spread over many kms in inaccessible terrain?
         | 
         | Even assuming you could pinpoint the location of every active
         | methane source ahead of time, how would you get a sensor there?
         | How would you secure access for installation and maintenance?
         | How would you ensure connectivity? How would you monitor in
         | areas controlled by hostile governments?
         | 
         | Each of the hundreds of thousands of sites has its own
         | logistical challenges which explode the cost. And because you
         | need to keep the sensor network up to date, it's a constant
         | operational battle, not a one time expense. Compare that to a
         | satellite: the one-shot launch, then lower cost, lower
         | operations, and superior temporal detection abilities and
         | global coverage - not hard to understand why satellites are
         | preferred.
        
           | downWidOutaFite wrote:
           | I mostly agree but the $100k is only launch cost, it doesn't
           | include the engineering and manufacturing of the satellite or
           | the ongoing operational costs.
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | Well funded universities are putting up cubesats. I cannot
             | imagine the operational costs are outside the scope of a
             | serious organization.
        
             | gopher_space wrote:
             | $100k would only hire a single employee, it wouldn't even
             | cover getting them into the field let alone setting up and
             | maintaining infrastructure over the course of a year.
             | 
             | It's possible to reduce this number by taking advantages of
             | labor conditions and goodwill, but that turns out to be a
             | ton of legwork if you want a reliable team in the area year
             | after year.
             | 
             | For example, in an anthro field school you might source
             | local labor by identifying people who want to learn about
             | their ancestors, and you'll expect a lot of community
             | outreach and Q&A sessions around what you're studying.
             | 
             | You could attempt a similar approach for studying methane
             | but I'd personally expect the Q&A sessions to include a
             | heavy undertone of "convince me we shouldn't just kill the
             | people involved", and all of my arguments against would be
             | from the perspective of a system they don't really give a
             | shit about. I'd certainly never put myself in that
             | position.
        
         | Denvercoder9 wrote:
         | > satellites are just fantastically expensive
         | 
         | This has become less and less the case over the last decade or
         | so. There are more or less mass-produced satellite buses now,
         | and a SpaceX rideshare puts 150kg into orbit for less than a
         | million. If you go small, you can probably procure, launch and
         | operate a satellite for less than $1000 per day of usage.
        
         | chris_va wrote:
         | (disclaimer I work on climate/methane mapping)
         | 
         | Companies do survey from the ground, and for large facilities
         | there is often permanent monitoring.
         | 
         | Detecting methane from the ground still requires an expensive
         | instrument, and it covers a very tiny area.
         | 
         | Having said that, a lot of methane leaks are from abandoned
         | well heads, and in many places there just are no economic
         | incentives to care about it.
         | 
         | Anyway, satellites are not cheap from a capex standpoint, but
         | they are surprisingly cheap in terms of $/m^2. A camera moving
         | over the earth at 7km/s mapping a 200km swath can cover a
         | million square km for O($1000). Getting a team with expensive
         | equipment into the field for a day on one site could easily be
         | more than that.
        
         | vineyardmike wrote:
         | I used to work on this at a methane monitoring shop. Others
         | have good points.
         | 
         | Monitoring from the ground using methane sensors that detect
         | the gas directly requires a lot of human labor. You need to
         | send people out to often remote locations to set up bulky
         | tripods full of (still expensive) sensors. You need some
         | expensive data backhaul because these places often don't have
         | cellular access. We were billed by the _byte_ to have a 24 /7
         | contract with uptime guarantees in some of these locations. One
         | big issue is that the companies paying for self-monitoring want
         | _suspiciously low_ false positives (for legal compliance
         | reasons). You have to work with the land owners if you expect
         | them to let you put sensors on their sites. This limits who can
         | access that data compared to a NGO running a satellite, and
         | requires you to filter out "noise" that's probably not noise to
         | appease the customers. They're also not very accurate at
         | detecting source in that close distance. Gases tend to quickly
         | rise above where a human can place a sensor array and the wind
         | and environmental factors play a huge impact. Very few
         | companies are willing to stand behind their physics modeling
         | with any kind of SLA. The human cost also shouldn't be
         | understated: when my coworkers would go and set up these
         | sensors they'd be dizzy for days /weeks due to the emitted
         | gasses they breathed in, our employer basically couldn't find
         | affordable medical insurance for us.
         | 
         | If you want to use spectroscopy/cameras, you can do it from a
         | (small) distance. But it's fantastically expensive equipment
         | that only can be used for 1 site. And the "looking up" angle is
         | worse than "looking down". It's an open question in the
         | industry if the data can be trusted from these setups. You
         | still have a lot of the complexity of maintaining them and
         | exfiltrating the data.
         | 
         | If you want to just fly a plane... that's expensive, you need
         | to do it regularly, you still have a lot of "not actively
         | monitored" time, etc.
        
           | diracs_stache wrote:
           | In calibrating satellites getting folks like you to go out
           | with sensors on the ground to send back well vetted data is
           | an expensive and limiting factor. Much cheaper (and often
           | preferred) to do as much as possible from space and do smart
           | ground processing/data analysis to build confidence.
        
         | seadan83 wrote:
         | > why can't companies just survey from the ground?
         | 
         | From a layman's perspective:
         | 
         | (1) the incentive is not aligned to accurately report leaks
         | [1][2][3][4][5]
         | 
         | (2) Satellites provide global monitoring. This reaches to
         | places/countries/regions that are not regulated, and secondly
         | provides monitoring for natural sources of methane emissions
         | (eg: permafrost). For the latter, even if there is nothing to
         | be done about natural emissions, the more accurate data will
         | provide for better modelling and help humans better understand
         | the Earth's ecosystem.
         | 
         | [1] June 2022: "Oil and gas companies underreported methane
         | leaks, new study shows" https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-
         | environment/2022/06/0...
         | 
         | [2] Oct 2023: "Oil and gas companies are missing significant
         | methane emissions. Here's how to fix that."
         | https://rmi.org/oil-and-gas-companies-are-missing-significan...
         | 
         | [3] "Gross under-reporting of fugitive methane emissions has
         | big implications for industry"
         | https://ieefa.org/resources/gross-under-reporting-fugitive-m...
         | 
         | [4] July 2023: "Australian Fossil Fuels Giants Severely
         | Underestimate Methane Leaks" - "Fugitive -- or hidden --
         | methane emissions in the country are likely underestimated by
         | 80% for coal and 90% for oil and gas, a new report from IEEFA
         | say"
         | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-04/australia...
         | 
         | [5] March 2022 "Stanford-led study: Methane leaks are far worse
         | than estimates, at least in New Mexico, but there's hope"
         | https://news.stanford.edu/press-releases/2022/03/24/methane-...
        
         | OtherShrezzing wrote:
         | Companies and countries tend not to report catastrophic methane
         | leaks (or really any contamination event) unless they're caught
         | in the act. It's absolutely staggering the rate at which
         | methane leaks are identified now that satellite data is being
         | analysed and published.
         | 
         | It'd be much more efficient all round for firms & countries to
         | just test locally & report their methane leaks, but they can't
         | be trusted to do so.
        
         | jasonlaramburu wrote:
         | Ground-based sensors historically undercount methane emissions
         | in 3rd party trials. They have a limited FOV which makes it
         | hard to accurately measure a plume of gas, particularly when
         | the wind blows. I suppose you could create a Dyson sphere of
         | fixed sensors around an O&G asset, but that quickly becomes
         | more expensive than a space based sensor.
         | 
         | Because these leaks can occur spontaneously, you really want
         | real-time, continuous monitoring of a wide area with high
         | resolution. Aerial sensors are impractical for this purpose.
         | Only a large constellation of satellites can offer this.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | How these satellites work (full text):
       | 
       | "Mapping methane point emissions with the PRISMA spaceborne
       | imaging spectrometer" (2021)
       | 
       | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00344...
       | 
       | > "The retrieval of methane from space measurements typically
       | relies on spectrally-resolved measurements of solar radiation
       | reflected by the Earth's surface in the shortwave infrared (SWIR)
       | part of the spectrum (~1600-2500 nm). Methane presents two
       | absorption bands in this region, a weaker one around 1700 nm and
       | a stronger one around 2300 nm. Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and
       | especially water vapor also present optical activity in the SWIR
       | (see Fig. 1)"
        
       | omgJustTest wrote:
       | Methane detection from space![1] will aid in the detection of
       | greenhouse gas emissions from abandoned well-heads, oil-fields,
       | landfills and other large environmental polluters contributing to
       | climate change. The IEA[3] has attributed nearly 30% of global
       | temperature rise to methane, so the detection of the sources is
       | becoming a critical factor in mitigating direct and indrect
       | impacts of climate change. The sensors aboard the MethaneSAT, as
       | well as other deployed capabilities, are largely based IR
       | detections with tunable bandgap materials like HgCdTe[2] arrays.
       | HgCdTe allows for the detection of non-ionizing IR via bandgap
       | tuning of the direct semiconductor CdTe. IR bands, and thus
       | chemical specific detections, can be selected based on the Hg
       | doping. Similar technologies in the James Webb NIRCam enable
       | detection of red-shifted gamma rays that are now heat photons.
       | 
       | [1]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00600-z
       | 
       | [2]https://www.methanesat.org/satellite/
       | 
       | [3]https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-
       | tracker-2022/meth...
        
         | jimnotgym wrote:
         | Imagine the carbon released by putting all the satellites up
         | there!
        
           | jjcm wrote:
           | I was curious on this so did some quick searching around.
           | 
           | Average satellite launch releases 57 tons of Co2 [1]
           | 
           | 2.75 million unplugged wells in the US that output "6.6m tons
           | of Co2 worth of methane" [2], or put in another way each well
           | puts out 2.4T of Co2e each per year.
           | 
           | With these numbers each sat would have to prevent 23.75 years
           | worth of a well being uncapped to recoup the cost of launch
           | (so would have to close one well for 23.75 years, or 24 wells
           | for a little less than a year).
           | 
           | [1] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/carbon-footprint-
           | satellite-to...
           | 
           | [2] https://carboncontainmentlab.org/projects/plugging-
           | abandoned....
           | 
           | (someone more informed feel free to correct any of these
           | numbers, I am not an expert)
        
             | Timshel wrote:
             | > The biggest event was a leak of 427 tonnes an hour in
             | August, near Turkmenistan's Caspian coast and a major
             | pipeline.
             | 
             | From this Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/env
             | ironment/2023/mar/06/revealed...
        
             | nonameiguess wrote:
             | Your link says around 57 tons for a "typical" payload
             | launched by the ESA using an Ariane 6 rocket and <15 tons
             | for a payload that launches from a reusable platform. The
             | parent article says these are launching using SpaceX
             | rockets, which are reusable, so presumably their footprint
             | is lower than an ESA satellite. They're also extremely
             | small satellites and not exactly typical payloads. Possibly
             | they can even fit multiple satellites on a single launch.
        
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