[HN Gopher] U.S. seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Ja...
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U.S. seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Japan, South
Korea
Author : mikhael
Score : 71 points
Date : 2024-03-03 18:32 UTC (4 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (asia.nikkei.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (asia.nikkei.com)
| JacobDotVI wrote:
| Are there any startups working on disrupting US Shipbuilding?
| echelon wrote:
| There should be. This is going to be a huge need.
|
| Autonomous ships will probably also be a big thing.
| Waterluvian wrote:
| Like trains, autonomous ships fundamentally doesn't seem to
| make any sense. What's the upside? Having a crew of 19
| instead of 22?
| ghaff wrote:
| Container ships already have tiny crews relative to the
| amount of goods they transport. The systems are already
| highly automated and you need some level of crew anyway for
| unexpected events, maintenance, etc. The idea that
| "automation" is this magical thing when the labor component
| is already pretty small is just silly.
| cesarb wrote:
| > Like trains, autonomous ships fundamentally doesn't seem
| to make any sense.
|
| Autonomous trains already exist, see https://en.wikipedia.o
| rg/wiki/List_of_driverless_train_syste... for a long list
| of places where it's been implemented. The related article
| at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_train_operation#
| Adva... has a list with six advantages of autonomous
| trains. Many of these advantages would probably also apply
| to autonomous ships (and other kinds of vehicles).
| ghaff wrote:
| In spite of the intro, those seem to pretty much be all
| people-mover/metro systems. They're not long distance
| transport in potentially unpredictable conditions.
| pfisch wrote:
| cheap suicide drone ships full of explosives...
| Waterluvian wrote:
| Okay if we're talking boats, not ships, a ton of things
| change.
| renewiltord wrote:
| Fully autonomous ships are pointless. But automation
| improvements across the US fleet while retaining
| reliability are a significant factor behind America's
| dominance of the seas.
| oneplane wrote:
| Already a thing (mostly remote controlled drone ships). But
| you'll always need mitigating controls for unexpected or low
| frequency events, and it's not always feasible to fly in a
| crew at which point the crew needs to be on board. This
| effectively is the same as the crew that's already there
| right now, so it doesn't actually impact all that much.
|
| The biggest benefit of remote, drone or automated piloting is
| the way you could make better use of a person's time, and
| maybe save a tiny amount of wages, but it's mostly the
| resulting functionality/features/business processes that is
| the benefit, not the headcount cost.
| CHB0403085482 wrote:
| The problem is a skilled labor force for shipbuilding ie. too
| few of them.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| Also union skilled workers who aren't going to tolerate "hire
| fast, fire fast, fail fast."
| astrange wrote:
| Workers are unionized in a lot of overseas industries that
| are more productive than the US. Don't know about Korea but
| they are in Japan and certainly in Europe. Part of it is
| have better union structures than we do; sectoral
| bargaining means any employers and unions spend less time
| fighting each other.
|
| A big problem for US shipbuilding is the Jones Act, which
| is so protectionist it's easier for the industry to flee
| the country entirely than deal with it. It's really harmful
| to our overseas areas like Hawaii and PR too.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| My point was that you will not solve this with a startup,
| because of how a startup must operate due to its inherent
| nature. You must operate this as a long term, sustainable
| operation (perhaps a public private partnership), like
| you would build a nuclear reactor over years or a decade.
| To not do this is to ignore the muscle memory needed to
| retain the core component: teams of skilled labor with
| options.
|
| Boeing is learning this the hard way currently, for
| example, and is in talks to buy the subcontractor (Spirit
| AeroSystems) it spun out:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39571819
| lmm wrote:
| They'll tolerate it if appropriately compensated, e.g. if
| you structured the venture as a workers' cooperative where
| they share the upside as well as the downside.
| whatshisface wrote:
| Unions in the United States are entrenched with a
| particular government-backed structure that puts the
| high-ups far from the working guys... they're not all
| necessarily leftist or willing to accept models other
| than management-and-bargaining.
| baggy_trough wrote:
| The US is too weighed down by legal and regulatory barnacles for
| this to have a chance.
| deycallmeajay wrote:
| Which regulations?
| explaininjs wrote:
| Environmental ones, perhaps?
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=335yX5kj7is
| speedylight wrote:
| Environmental laws are necessary to make sure we're not
| poisoning ourselves or the planet.
| roenxi wrote:
| Environmental, labour, safety and energy are the usual 4
| horsemen that I have seen. Just listing a random point from
| my collection of squeaky-wheel arguments on the topic:
|
| * I frankly don't know how to make it a persuasive message,
| but my experience in English speaking countries is that it is
| generally illegal to make mistakes or skimp on quality. That
| means it is impossible for industries to learn how to do new
| things. Look at the treatment of Boeing after 2 airplane
| crashes for example and ask what that would mean for a new
| company attempting to learn how to operate in the space. With
| no room to fail, it is a challenge for new companies to
| succeed. There were even calls to nationalise them which is
| ... not likely but also not comforting as an investor. It is
| darn risky to put money into manufacturing spaces with
| attitudes like that, it is safer to go with cat picture
| delivery platforms.
|
| * The US has particulate air pollution that is half of South
| Korea's and a quarter of China. It is a pretty reasonable
| guess that air pollution would be mostly industrial
| production that the US would shut down for environmental
| concerns.
|
| * US labour laws are an impediment. That new fab plant that
| TSMC was trying to build in the US seemed to be falling over
| because it was illegal to use skilled, experienced labour.
|
| * The US is seeing declines in per-capita energy availability
| and flat actual production. That is almost certainly a policy
| choice linked to anti-fossil-fuel ideologies, Asia has been
| seeing seeing crazy growth. It is hard to do energy-intensive
| activities like manufacturing in an environment where
| securing energy is a battle.
|
| There have been something like 50 years of anti-industrial
| policy in the west. A lot of the capital was built in
| China/Asia. It should be a literal embarrassment that we're
| being outdone at capitalism by nominal communists and
| legitimate authoritarians.
| astrange wrote:
| Outdated protectionism like the Jones Act.
|
| https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/jones-
| act-...
| anonymous-panda wrote:
| For all the faults of the Jones Act, I don't think that
| explains the challenges of US ship building. If anything,
| it keeps US ship building efforts alive when foreign ships
| would have killed it.
| fyrn_ wrote:
| Considering the existing precedence with Italy and Australia
| (both of which build us navy ships), I doubt it
| roenxi wrote:
| Australia's manufacturing capacity is rather unimpressive and
| the Adelaide military fabrication is a serious effort but at
| least partially a jobs program. We are not the place to look
| if you want to try to challenge China's manufacturing
| prowess.
| amou234 wrote:
| In a separate but combined effort, Europe is seeking to revive
| its artillery shell industry. the production capacity for
| artillery shells in Europe went up 40% since start of war, and
| wants to reach 1.4 million round by end of 2024. However, EU can
| only supply half of promised shells to Ukraine by March. Right
| now EU is having gunpowder shortages. The gunpowder is made from
| specific cotton which mostly comes from China. "Would you know
| it, deliveries of this cotton from China stopped as if by chance
| a few months ago," Breton added [1].
|
| Luckily, recently Czech Republic helped to find hundred and
| thousands of shells for Ukraine recently [2]. Otherwise, because
| of the republican stalling in congress, Ukraine was only firing
| 4000 to 7000 artillery shells per day, while Russia was launching
| 20,000 shells daily [3]. Also very coincidental, Russia has
| started using 122-mm artillery shells that have similarities to
| Chinese-made shells [4].
|
| [1]
| https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/03/02/world/politics/...
|
| [2] https://news.yahoo.com/czech-republic-found-hundreds-
| thousan...
|
| [3] https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nato-
| artillery...
|
| [4] https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-has-started-using-122-mm-
| ar....
| sbierwagen wrote:
| Fun historical fact, at the height of WW1, Germany was
| producing 12 million shells a _month._ Just in the preliminary
| bombardment at the Battle of the Somme the British fired 1.5
| million shells. And now we 're scrambling just to achieve one
| percent of the production we had a century ago.
|
| All that industrial base is long gone, of course. Contrary to
| complaints about war profiteering, artillery shell production
| is not a terribly attractive business. The equipment can't
| easily be repurposed, it's not terribly sophisticated so the
| technological barriers to entry are low, you have one single
| customer, and the faster and better you provide your product
| the quicker the war ends and you go out of business. It's like
| combining the low margins and drudgery of running a factory
| that stamps out spoons, but with the added risk the spoons
| might obliterate the plant if a single worker makes a mistake.
| amou234 wrote:
| I wonder if it's fair to call the hodgepodge of localized
| conflicts WW3 now? It's clear one alliance - Ukraine, Europe,
| US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia,
| Canada, Israel (recently aligned with Ukraine) - is fighting
| another alliance - Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas,
| Houthi. With countries supplying technology, money, military
| stockpiles, and in some ways, foot on the ground. With India
| trying to play both sides, via purchasing Russian oil, but
| involved in Aukus.
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(page generated 2024-03-03 23:00 UTC)