[HN Gopher] What a major solar storm could do
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       What a major solar storm could do
        
       Author : fortran77
       Score  : 81 points
       Date   : 2024-02-26 16:17 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.newyorker.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.newyorker.com)
        
       | bryanrasmussen wrote:
       | archive.org:
       | https://web.archive.org/web/20240226163016/https://www.newyo...
        
       | superkuh wrote:
       | Long article for something that can be summed up in two
       | paragraphs. The primary danger is plasma from a CME or solar
       | energic particles from a flare causing a rapid compression of the
       | geomagnetic field by dynamic pressure and the the rate of change
       | in magnetic field inducing large currents in very long conductors
       | (power grid, pipelines, etc) down on earth.
       | 
       | If the large backbone transformers in the grid are not outfitted
       | with fast ground fault interrupters they would be damaged and the
       | grid for large regions would go down. There are no backup
       | transformers waiting. It would take a few to many months to
       | produce and install new backbone transformers even in normal
       | times. It might take more when the grid is down. This lack of
       | electricity would have compounding effects.
       | 
       | A much lesser worry is the satellites in orbit getting deep ion
       | charging and sparking and getting damaged.
        
         | idontwantthis wrote:
         | So easy and cheap to prepare for, and the potential destruction
         | is basically infinity, but here we are.
        
           | superkuh wrote:
           | Indeed. There was a strong push for funding for installing
           | and mantaining fast ground fault interrupters after the EMP
           | Commision in congress in 2001 (http://www.empcommission.org/)
           | determined it was the best solution. And then again in 2008.
           | But nothing actually happened besides words.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | I'm not sure that we haven't already prepared for this.
           | Lightning is a thing and fast grounding transformers are the
           | solution to that.
           | 
           | As a kid, thunderstorms commonly knocked out the grid. Now as
           | an adult I've rarely seen the power go out (It usually
           | happens due to someone ramming a power line with their car).
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Seemingly in these threads a lot of people don't understand
             | solar storms at all.
             | 
             | When lighting hits you get a few microsecond burst of a
             | whole lot of power that gets dumped to ground. Your
             | grounding will get very hot from this, but typically you're
             | not getting hit constantly all day in the same grounding
             | location.
             | 
             | Now imagine this. You start getting excess power to the
             | point it's starting to drive primary movers on the grid.
             | You disconnect them because you don't want bad shit
             | happening to your generators. But your grid is still
             | generating power, in some places an awful lot of power that
             | is acting more like DC rather than AC. So you're going to
             | dump this to ground right? Have you ever welded? Because
             | when you dump power to ground it's still power and it makes
             | things hot. Unless you build in massive heatsinks you're
             | going to have a problem.
        
               | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
               | Your telegraph lines start catching on fire, eh?
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Honest question, because I don't know: _Are_ fast ground
           | fault interrupters  "cheap and easy"? I mean, sure, they're
           | cheap and easy compared to replacing transformers. But they
           | don't just grow on trees, either. What's the lead time on
           | getting one?
        
             | idontwantthis wrote:
             | I meant the transformers. We're talking a relativey modest
             | amount over a century or more. Governments can handle it.
        
           | lenerdenator wrote:
           | Every single instance of "being prepared" has to go past an
           | accountant who has to make the math, math for the next 90
           | days. The conversation will go something like this.
           | 
           | Engineer at electric company: "We'd like to get this project
           | on the calendar for the quarter; should make the equipment
           | more resilient against the risk of solar storms."
           | 
           | Accountant at electric company: "What are the odds this solar
           | storm happens in the next quarter?"
           | 
           | Engineer: "We cannot accurately predict the timing of a solar
           | storm; however, as time goes on, the probability of a solar
           | storm causing damage to our equipment gets closer to 1."
           | 
           | Accountant: "That's not enough certainty when compared to the
           | necessity of profitability." _scratches grid hardening off
           | priority list_
           | 
           | Now, "prepared" means "society not collapsing", and
           | "profitability" means that a retired couple can buy a
           | timeshare on a golf course in Florida where they can swing
           | until the dementia sets in, but priorities are priorities.
        
             | njarboe wrote:
             | > Engineer: "We cannot accurately predict the timing of a
             | solar storm; however, as time goes on, the probability of a
             | solar storm causing damage to our equipment gets closer to
             | 1."
             | 
             | Engineer: "We cannot accurately predict the timing of a
             | solar storm; however, over a long enough timeframe, the
             | probability of a solar storm causing damage to our
             | equipment is close to 1."
        
             | gamblor956 wrote:
             | That's not what the accountants do at a company.
             | 
             | The accountants are given the receipts after the engineers
             | have already spent company money, and their job is to
             | _account_ for that spending.
             | 
             | The _finance_ department are the people who decide whether
             | the engineers get to spend the money. (They 're also known
             | as the FP&A team = financial planning and analysis.)
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | I thought the engineers turned in the receipts in hopes
               | of being reimbursed for the critical purchase that the
               | accountants then get to decide if it meets their
               | definition of critical.
        
         | cogman10 wrote:
         | I'd have to imagine that now-a-days these transformers are all
         | or mostly fast grounding. If they weren't, I'd expect lightning
         | storms to be a much bigger and more frequent issue.
        
           | chatmasta wrote:
           | The vendors who sell fast grounding transformers must love
           | these articles...
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | Lighting rarely hits transformers directly nor does it
           | commonly hit the carrier lines. Typically you see a wire
           | along the top that's grounded that 'catches' the lighting at
           | the highest point and sends it to ground. Also lightning is
           | pretty easy to arrest over short burst because of it's large
           | influx and short duration.
           | 
           | It's kind of like the difference between a single (smallish)
           | wave caused by a boat and a tsunami. The boats wave can cause
           | damage but it's typically very limited. Meanwhile the tsunami
           | doesn't stop coming and becomes your environment. Fast
           | grounding doesn't mean much when dumping to ground stops
           | working because the ground gets so hot it's a resistor.
        
           | chankstein38 wrote:
           | I feel like you're underestimating how old so much of our
           | grid is. There are lines near my house (in a rural area) that
           | are still just held up by warped bent poles with white
           | ceramic insulators on them, a (hopefully) beefier version of
           | what you'd see on an old electric fence before people started
           | using plastic. Obviously old poles and cabling doesn't mean
           | the transformers are outdated but I wouldn't be shocked.
        
         | mattmaroon wrote:
         | This is what I dislike about the New Yorker. It's a literary
         | circle jerk. I get that you want to show me what a great writer
         | you are, but I don't really need to hear about growing up on
         | Alcatraz at the start of the article about a solar storm. If I
         | want to read something that's 10x as long as it needs to be to
         | get the point across I'll just pick up another Gladwell book.
        
           | lenerdenator wrote:
           | You think that's bad, wait until you see the recipe blog ;)
        
             | mattmaroon wrote:
             | Haha at least there's a "jump to recipe" link usually. I
             | wish New Yorker had a "jump to the point" button.
        
           | Aaronstotle wrote:
           | Its my biggest gripe with the New Yorker, their articles are
           | incredibly long winded and meandering at times.
        
             | digging wrote:
             | I really need an Abridged New Yorker feed. I love about
             | 20-30% of their articles, by volume, but they're so, uh,
             | "well written", that they're difficult to even scan for
             | high-value information.
        
           | tchock23 wrote:
           | It's not just the New Yorker. This "Gladwell-ification" of
           | non-fiction has been happening for a long time now.
        
         | GeoAtreides wrote:
         | > Long article for something that can be summed up in two
         | paragraphs
         | 
         | Sure, you can answer the question "What can a major solar storm
         | do to our planet?" in two paragraphs, why not, if one would
         | need a very quick, very short summary of what a major solar
         | storm could to our planet.
         | 
         | But.
         | 
         | Some people might want a more in-depth answer, going into great
         | detail. Some people might want so much detail that they might
         | read a whole-ass book about a subject.
         | 
         | Long form articles are not bad or unwanted; they bridge the
         | space between a short summary and a book (along with essays,
         | studies, etc). What is bad, though, is thinking everything
         | should be reduced to a short two paragraph summary, or a 1min
         | tiktok video, or a video. All mediums of communication have
         | their uses and their niches, serving different needs.
        
           | welder wrote:
           | This isn't a more in-depth answer... it's a biography of a
           | man researching solar flares.
        
             | ytx wrote:
             | Perhaps that's what people are actually reading the new
             | yorker for :P
        
       | anarbadalov wrote:
       | Isn't this the same author who wrote that feature a decade ago
       | speculating on the potential for a massive earthquake along the
       | Pacific Northwest? It's too early in the week, but I'm
       | bookmarking this for a weekend read. Incidentally, there's been
       | news about huge solar flares in the last week (e.g.,
       | https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/22/solar-flar...).
        
         | DrBazza wrote:
         | Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9 on the Richter
         | scale. Seeing what Microsoft's business back up plan for that
         | is, would be interesting, especially since Seattle would be the
         | largest affected city.
        
           | jpalawaga wrote:
           | I lived in Vancouver bc and in general they're prepared. The
           | office building I worked from had many earthquake supply
           | cabinets that had rations, water, thermal blankets, and we
           | all knew where the community muster points were. They had
           | people come in to talk about the risks and remind you about
           | earthquake preparedness.
           | 
           | In general it's going to be a disaster, but people are
           | prepared for it (as much as one can be anyhow)
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | > Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9
           | 
           | More precisely, it's 8, the average is 500 years, and the
           | last one was in 1700.
        
             | DrBazza wrote:
             | Cunningham's law eh? :)
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Ha! I had forgotten it had a name, but I guess that
               | works.
               | 
               | There is a fair bit of variability in the 500 year
               | average, and 8 is still a seriously large earthquake, so
               | preparations are definitely justified IMO.
        
             | shkkmo wrote:
             | That's not precisely accurate. The cascadian subductions
             | zone uas produced magnitude 9 quakes in the past.
             | 
             | The results I've seen (from a decade and a half ago) pegged
             | the probability of a magnitude > 9 in the next 50 years at
             | 1/10 and a magnitude > 8 at 1/3.
             | 
             | The 500 years average is if you look at the last 7 events.
             | 7 is a horribly low sample size and if you extend the
             | timescale, that average drops by half and indicates we are
             | past the 250 year average.
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | Statistically a lot of things are overdue. Like the big flood
           | in California. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-
           | content/uploads/2013/10/Dettinger_I...
        
           | ianburrell wrote:
           | The chance for Cascadia magnitude 8 is 37% is next 50 years,
           | and magnitude 9 is 15%. The 37% chance is for the southern
           | section, and 15% is for the full fault.
        
         | frognumber wrote:
         | My TL;DR is that we should be prepared for major disasters. I
         | would love it if my tax dollars paid for:
         | 
         | - stockpiles of food and medicine
         | 
         | - various shelters
         | 
         | - excess local manufacturing capacity
         | 
         | - transparent, public, reviewable plans for different
         | contingencies
         | 
         | - subsidized making normal consumer devices more robust (e.g.
         | repairable, RF-hard, etc. -- anything which can be done at
         | reasonable cost)
         | 
         | - training and coordinating responders, including something
         | like the National Guard or territorial defense forces, but more
         | general in scope.
         | 
         | - making sure we can produce everything we need to survive
         | locally (food, medicine, and the infrastructure to support
         | those)
         | 
         | ... and so on.
         | 
         | It's hard to predict the next disaster, but we should be ready.
        
           | whartung wrote:
           | FEMA and State agencies have been advocating people get at
           | least a 3 day bag ready in there house for each family
           | member.
           | 
           | A better plan is for two weeks.
           | 
           | Back in the day, with the first surge of the Avian flu,
           | Governor Schwarzenegger ordered an bought a large supply of
           | respirators, "just in case".
           | 
           | That stock pile was released and not maintained by later
           | administrations. Then COVID hit.
           | 
           | The problem with something like a Carrington event is that
           | the potential impact is very widespread. The large bulk of
           | our disaster planning is local. The planning rightly expects
           | the cavalry to come to the rescue directly. Katrina was a
           | poster child of both a good and bad response. The Houston
           | boat lift is another. The rest of the country rallies and
           | pivots to the disaster area sending material and people to
           | aid the stricken.
           | 
           | Having a 2 week store when you can shelter in place is a Good
           | Plan for a very large majority of potential disasters. It
           | doesn't work great for fire or floods (where you lose your
           | home, and thus have no place to shelter). But the plan is to
           | be able to maintain for the 2 weeks while the cavalry
           | arrives.
           | 
           | The problem with something like a Carrington event, is the
           | disaster is no longer localized. But very wide spread, thus
           | that cavalry that was planned for is probably not coming. Not
           | soon. Not in time. And the rules have changed dramatically.
           | It's a nightmare scenario. Despite the wide spread
           | devastation of the Tsunami, it, too, was localized, and aid
           | flowed quickly, even across the sea. With a Carrington event,
           | not so much.
           | 
           | This is where, ideally, communities must rally themselves, on
           | their own initiative, to share resources and manage as best
           | they can. As you can imagine, some communities may be able to
           | do this better than others. But your 2 week supply for your
           | family is now likely better used to support others in your
           | community. For every Ant preparing for winter, there are a
           | lot of Grasshoppers. And they get unruly when they get
           | hungry.
           | 
           | It would be unprecedented, and the only real course is to
           | muddle through best we can. State and Federal disaster
           | planning may or may not help here. Back in the day, the USDA
           | running the Welfare programs stockpiled and delivered food
           | (the infamous "government cheese"). Today they just offer
           | debit cards. I don't know if there are warehouses of cheese
           | and peanut butter standing by anywhere any more.
           | 
           | Still, you can do you part, you can do your best. Engage with
           | your neighbors, stockpile a bit more food (don't need to fill
           | the garage with a year supply of dried beans, but an extra
           | case of tuna won't hurt). Make your preparedness part of a
           | continuing cycle of giving, as your stockpile starts reaching
           | the 6 month due date, donate it to a food pantry, and get
           | some more. But reaching out to your neighbors can help a lot,
           | get them to work on their 2 weeks supply.
           | 
           | Its not all about guns and gear. It's more about civility,
           | and having a little more food or blankets to share with
           | others in times of crisis. No reason to expect to feed the
           | whole neighborhood, but don't expect them to leave you alone
           | with your stocked garage while they go hungry.
        
       | mmanfrin wrote:
       | My scifi prediction is that if the worst predictions of AGI come
       | to fruition that a Carrington event would actually save us
       | (albeit we'd be radically changed).
        
         | foota wrote:
         | You're adding your one hope for humanity to the training set?
         | :)
        
           | fhars wrote:
           | It's post 2022, it will not be used.
        
         | fritzo wrote:
         | I think it's more likely that a self-intrested AGI would save
         | us from a Carrington event
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | but where's the scifi-ness fun of that?
        
           | JohnMakin wrote:
           | How could a thing that doesn't exist yet or remotely have
           | support for it save us from an event that has near certainty
           | of 1?
        
       | gene-h wrote:
       | Much of the damage to the power grid can mostly be mitigated by
       | turning off electricity, although this is a difficult thing for
       | power companies and grid operators to do. One issue this article
       | doesn't discuss is the risk to undersea internet cables[0].
       | Undersea fiberoptic cables need repeaters, these need
       | electricity, so they have very long conductors and it's expected
       | that sea water's conductivity could make induced currents worse.
       | Shutting off power won't necessarily work, because induced
       | currents could be 100x more than the equipment is rated for.
       | Although, global connectivity is still likely to exist.
       | 
       | [0]https://ics.uci.edu/~sabdujyo/papers/sigcomm21-cme.pdf
        
         | Wieldable4640 wrote:
         | Turning the power off would work, but is that feasible? Even if
         | we'd be able to spot the CME, would then have enough time left
         | to shut down the entire power grid?
         | 
         | The time between detection and the CME hitting us would
         | probably be measured in minutes. I don't think it's possible to
         | shut down the grid in that timeframe.
        
           | digging wrote:
           | Yeah I question if it's something we even _could_ do.
           | 
           | But even if is, it's going to kill and hurt a lot of people.
           | Probably _less_ than setting every electrical device on (half
           | of) the planet on fire or whatever, but good luck convincing
           | people of that when their dad is on dialysis or all their
           | food spoils and they can 't get to the store.
        
           | javajosh wrote:
           | I say this only half in jest, but could we not request that
           | an adversary trigger their malware to shut down our grid?
           | When life gives you lemons...
        
             | yifanl wrote:
             | Wouldn't such an adversary always choose the option that
             | causes us more damage?
        
           | onenukecourse wrote:
           | We can, and have, shut off large portions of the grid in
           | seconds.
           | 
           | Take the 2003 blackout. Yes, the whole shut down took 15
           | minutes (?). But thats because it was a cascading effect that
           | had to travel down the lines. Once the fault was detected by
           | a particular segment of the grid, the relays responded in
           | milliseconds. They have since the 1920s? Add in an "incoming
           | solar flare" fault condition and we can trip the whole grid
           | in seconds and send a start signal to the diesel generators
           | to warm up to bring her back up.
           | 
           | Pretty nifty trick.
           | 
           | Question is why would we? The grid has been undergoing a lot
           | of strengthening against EMPs and flares for decades. Its not
           | obvious to me that a flare can take it out, especially if we
           | shed dumb loads (partial blackout, say data centers) before
           | it hits to give the conductors and transformers head space.
        
             | spdustin wrote:
             | If we had done enough to mitigate EMPs, the nuclear powers
             | of the world wouldn't have space-based nuclear EMPs as the
             | first step of their attack plan. We still do, and so does
             | Russia.
             | 
             | Geomagnetically-induced current is different from the
             | plain-vanilla EMPs anyway--GIC can last for hours.
        
               | roenxi wrote:
               | We might easily be unprepared, but that the military
               | tries things that might not work. Military attack is all
               | about trying things that _might_ cripple the enemy and
               | /or increase the cost of an effective defence. So an EMP
               | isn't necessarily because it is expected to do horrific
               | damage. It is just part of a thorough test of an
               | adversaries preparations, making it harder to protect
               | their infrastructure.
        
               | AnarchismIsCool wrote:
               | I fail to understand why we don't do more to make
               | equipment robust to this kind of thing. There's a whole
               | range of problems that this solves looong before we get
               | to general nuclear exchange.
               | 
               | If stuff was shielded, isolated, and grounded better,
               | everything from your phone to your WiFi would work a lot
               | better and have longer range. Wind slapping power lines
               | together wouldn't destroy everything plugged in inside
               | your house and solar flares wouldn't be more than a
               | passing concern. The design changes to affect all of this
               | aren't remotely expensive or difficult, we just don't.
        
             | nothisisntright wrote:
             | > We can, and have, shut off large portions of the grid in
             | seconds.
             | 
             | Speaking from personal experience, this is BS. During a bad
             | wind event, a bunch of lines came down, started a huge
             | forest fire around 10 or 11pm which was heading for a small
             | town with 50-70mph winds. First responders couldn't get in
             | to warn anyone because the downed lines were energized, so
             | they called up the power plant. The whole process to de-
             | energize took hours. There is a kill-switch now, but most
             | power plants apparently can't shut off the juice in a
             | matter of seconds, and they may not even have a plan to do
             | so in an emergency.
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | It is feasible.
           | 
           | In https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event it is
           | estimated that the time from spotting the flare to the solar
           | storm was 17.6 hours. That's plenty of time.
           | 
           | The problem is figuring out how big the event is, and how
           | directly it will hit us. So while we have over 17 hours to
           | prepare, there might be some false positives due to our
           | limited prediction skills. And, no matter the real
           | consequences, people have limited patience for large economic
           | disruptions over things that turned out to be nothing.
        
             | kurthr wrote:
             | Even better, if you turn off the electricity and prevent
             | major destruction and nothing happens (other than the power
             | down/up) then you're the one who caused "the problem".
             | 
             | There's no reward for fixing a problem that doesn't happen
             | and that people don't want to believe even exists. Bonus,
             | if other networks are damaged while yours aren't, it must
             | be _because_ you protected your network so you 're
             | responsible!
        
           | tejtm wrote:
           | CME are "Coronal Mass Ejection" with mass being the operative
           | word here. Electromagnetic radiation (electrons photons) can
           | make the trip between sun and earth in about 8 minute but
           | anything with neutrons or protons (such as the coronal
           | plasma) takes much longer as in, a day and a half to several
           | days. CME are not hard to spot leaving the sun with even with
           | tiny amateur telescopes (the sun does not require much in the
           | way of light gathering) so even without the professional
           | scopes (SOHO) with dedicated satellites leading and trailing
           | earth orbit constantly viewing around the edge of the sun as
           | seen from earth or being able to acoustically "hear" (if you
           | can call 5 minute pressure waves sound) the far side of the
           | sun, it is not conceivable to me we would not be warned a CME
           | was incoming, doing something about it is another story.
        
           | ianburrell wrote:
           | It takes 15-24 hours for CME to arrive at the Earth after
           | solar flare. The particles are much slower than the radiation
           | which arrive immediately. We have pretty good prediction if
           | CME will hit Earth.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | Does ~8 minutes qualify as immediately, or are you doing
             | the physicists thing of rounding to 0?
        
               | ern wrote:
               | For practical purposes in this case it's immediate right?
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | I can do a lot in 8 mins. If you had 8 minute warning for
               | an earthquake, what could you do? Luckily, we get more
               | notice than that now for tornadoes, but 8 minutes is
               | enough time to seek shelter. In 8 minutes, there's plenty
               | of time to ctrl-s on everything, and then close apps and
               | shut down computers.
               | 
               | The problem is communicating to everyone when that 8
               | minutes starts and how much time is left.
        
               | jakeinspace wrote:
               | But the point is that we'll have 15-24 hours, not 8
               | minutes.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | That may be your point, but not the point to which this
               | thread started.
        
               | thfuran wrote:
               | >If you had 8 minute warning for an earthquake, what
               | could you do
               | 
               | That's not how it works. There may be detectable
               | precursors that could actually give warning, but the 8
               | minutes referenced is the time it takes light from the
               | sun to reach earth. It's immediate in the sense that it
               | is physically impossible to detect that before those 8
               | minutes have already elapsed and the light is hitting
               | your detectors. You could try to move your detectors
               | closer to the sun to detect earlier, but any signal you
               | can possibly send back to earth goes at the same speed,
               | so it doesn't help.
        
         | spdustin wrote:
         | > Much of the damage to the power grid can mostly be mitigated
         | by turning off electricity
         | 
         | That isn't entirely true.
         | 
         | I guess, in reality, "turning off electricity" can work, if
         | "turning off" means shutting down generation at the same time
         | throughout an entire interconnected grid and physically
         | disconnecting literally every transformer throughout that
         | transmission grid before they're cooked by geomagnetically-
         | induced current (GIC).
         | 
         | Induced DC current alone can heat the windings in high-voltage
         | transformers to the point of catastrophic failure, and that's
         | assuming they can disconnect the AC current already flowing
         | through the windings--if they can't, it heats even faster. This
         | can possibly be mitigated by using a CT or hall sensor combined
         | with a separate winding to cancel out the flux in the
         | transformer's core, but I suspect that kind of work hasn't been
         | done because there's no cost benefit.
         | 
         | Some electricity providers have relaying systems in place meant
         | to protect equipment, but the last time that was tested in
         | real-world conditions (1989, in Quebec) they failed to prevent
         | equipment damage.
         | 
         | That says nothing about the transmission lines themselves, most
         | of which are nowhere near protected from GIC, and could either
         | overheat or allow enough DC to flow through smaller pole-
         | mounted transformers , which magnetizes them and dramatically
         | reduces their serviceable life (if not outright destroying
         | them).
         | 
         | In the case of Hydro-Quebec, GIC didn't cause equipment damage;
         | their protection systems--the stuff meant to "turn off the
         | electricity"--allowed damage to occur anyway.
        
       | nntwozz wrote:
       | Wild thought, is any nation preparing for this as an opportunity
       | to attack?
       | 
       | For example Russia using its whole arsenal to create maximum
       | chaos to create some opportunities, or North Korea invading South
       | Korea. Pakistan, China and Iran could def. also be cooking
       | something.
       | 
       | Might as well go balls to the wall now that the enemy is weakened
       | and you have a lot less to lose. Especially if your economy is
       | mostly self-sustained and doesn't rely on globalization to
       | function properly.
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | Sure but what happens after they can't destroy everything? You
         | get WW3 or some NATO response or worse
        
         | spdustin wrote:
         | Not a wild thought. The China, Russia, and the US (if not the
         | other nuclear powers) have made known their plans to use a
         | nuclear electromagnetic pulse as the first phase of any attack.
         | 
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse#..
         | .)
        
           | tempestn wrote:
           | With that being the case, you would think that grid hardening
           | would not have trouble getting funding, as a matter of
           | national security.
        
             | spdustin wrote:
             | Hardening essential comms and energy infrastructure has
             | been funded. Trouble is, the rest of us don't benefit from
             | the government redundancies, since they're focused on
             | continuity of government rather than continuity of the
             | electorate.
        
           | SahAssar wrote:
           | That seems to be talking about using EMP as a targeted
           | weapon.
           | 
           | I think the question was more if any countries have ready
           | made plans to exploit the natural disaster for military gain.
           | Like does any country have a standing order to in the case of
           | massive global disruption subdue or attack their geopolitical
           | rivals?
        
       | rglover wrote:
       | I find it interesting that last week, we had a nationwide AT&T
       | outage and one of the causes speculated on local news outlets
       | (within a couple hours) was a solar flare [1]. Now, less than a
       | week later, we have articles in the New Yorker priming thoughts
       | about solar storms.
       | 
       | Why is this relevant? Consider where that speculation started:
       | local news networks [2].
       | 
       | It's worth reading Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars [3] if you
       | haven't already to understand why it's worth me mentioning this.
       | Easily dismissed as "conspiracy nonsense," but it's worth asking
       | "why this, why now?"
       | 
       | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7scPFH0aq9U
       | 
       | [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksb3KD6DfSI
       | 
       | [3] https://archive.org/details/silent-weapons-for-quiet-wars-
       | or...
        
         | beedeebeedee wrote:
         | I just read the pamphlet "Silent Weapons to Quiet Wars" that
         | you suggested and would say it is not worth reading.
         | 
         | There is not much in it, besides a (presumably) faked origin
         | and typesetting, a brief analogy to physics and electronics,
         | hushed talk of banks and domination, and a lot of hand waving
         | and winking at the reader
        
           | rglover wrote:
           | There's a lot more to it than that and I'd encourage people
           | to form their own opinions. It maps fairly close to our
           | current reality, even if that mapping is uncomfortable for
           | some to read. Considering the publication date, you can use
           | abductive logic to say "yep, all of this chaos was
           | intentional."
        
             | beedeebeedee wrote:
             | > There's a lot more to it than that
             | 
             | I disagree. It gestures to a lot more (operational
             | research, electronics, physics, etc), but just loosely
             | points to them to make analogies. If you have no
             | familiarity with those subjects, it is better to read about
             | them elsewhere. If you are familar with them, then the
             | analogies just seem shallow and don't provide to the
             | pamphlet other than to fluff it up to make it seem more
             | scientific than it is.
             | 
             | The rest of it refers to bankers (Rothchild!), domination
             | and sub-nations. It also has a presumably fake origin
             | story, and smacks of being a modern Elders of Zion like
             | work.
             | 
             | I didn't know anything about this pamphlet other than what
             | you posted before reading it (and I only read it because it
             | has a provocative title), but I would suggest to anyone
             | else not to waste their time- go read instructive books on
             | operational research, cybernetics, etc, instead of this
             | pretending to be a secret book from the 70's
        
               | rglover wrote:
               | > I didn't know anything about this pamphlet other than
               | what you posted before reading it.
               | 
               | You didn't read it, then (you replied to me within 30
               | minutes).
        
               | beedeebeedee wrote:
               | I did read it- it is very short :)
        
         | mrexroad wrote:
         | > Easily dismissed as "conspiracy nonsense"
         | 
         | That's because it is conspiracy nonsense. It's totally bonkers
         | if you read it with an actual open mind... as opposed to a mind
         | already seeking to reinforce notions about some NWO and that
         | most others are simply cattle with their brains tuned off.
         | 
         | TBH, Reddit is a better place for fancy math and circuit
         | diagrams to be taken at face value to help perpetuate
         | conspiratorial systems thinking.
        
           | tempestn wrote:
           | I read much of it as well, and agree with the conspiracy
           | nonsense evaluation. Many references to supposed secret
           | meetings held between international/university/etc. elites in
           | one year or another with no specifics or evidence whatsoever.
           | It's literally conspiracy nonsense.
        
       | runjake wrote:
       | http://archive.today/UcMvZ
       | 
       | (In case web.archive.org is blocked at your workplace.)
        
       | aerostable_slug wrote:
       | Something to add to the mix:
       | 
       | For those who don't know, capital expenditures that are funded
       | out of a rate case make investor-owned utilities money. If you
       | can get the relevant regulatory body (often a public utility
       | commission) to approve raising rates to cover x dollars of grid
       | resilience projects, the utilities will happily take the money
       | and go forth and implement.
       | 
       | The trick is justifying the spend to said regulators. This is
       | hard with black swan events and regulators that are explicitly
       | tasked with being ratepayer advocates, guarding against the
       | utilities unnecessarily gold-plating things to get a greater rate
       | of return for their investors. It's not like the utilities don't
       | want the money, or the "work" of doing it, or anything like that.
       | Rather, if PG&E went to CPUC and asked for several billion
       | dollars to build a hardened bunker filled with things like
       | transformers that may never be used in the lifetime of the people
       | signing the documents (but the profits realized by the rate of
       | return on the CAPEX will immediately go to investors), they'll
       | likely get laughed out of the room. This issue complicates the
       | discussion about grid resilience, because it can seem to Jeff &
       | Jane Ratepayer (/taxpayer if we're talking national projects)
       | it's all just an excuse to route regular people's money to
       | executives & investors over something that won't happen, the rich
       | get richer, yadda yadda yadda.
        
         | spdustin wrote:
         | Or, in the case of Texas, where there are no regulators that
         | have done so...
        
       | andrewinardeer wrote:
       | I wonder if a solar storm can get so intense that the aurora
       | borealis or aurora australis is visible during daylight hours?
        
         | ljoshua wrote:
         | See the Carington Event:
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
         | 
         | It doesn't discuss seeing it during the day, but it was visible
         | in places where it would never otherwise be.
        
       | Geisterde wrote:
       | Pick me! I think it would upset people, at least until after
       | dinner has passed. After that, and once people have figured out
       | who has a functional ice maker and whos cars still run, I think
       | its back to the grind.
        
       | johnea wrote:
       | It was a dark and stormy night... as I grew up on Alcatraz? 8-/
       | 
       | tl;dr never made to anything having anything to do with solar
       | storms...
        
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       (page generated 2024-02-26 23:00 UTC)