[HN Gopher] TSMC is having more luck building in Japan than in A...
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TSMC is having more luck building in Japan than in America
Author : helsinkiandrew
Score : 144 points
Date : 2024-02-25 08:39 UTC (14 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
| helsinkiandrew wrote:
| https://archive.ph/PtzWL
| asah wrote:
| The US doesn't want domestic chip production, it wants chip
| production that's not at risk of the Chinese. As a very reliable
| partner, Japan works fine for this purpose.
| ksec wrote:
| Exactly. Along with South Korea. Which is why I find it strange
| US insist it has to be on US soil. When I dont see how they
| could compete without at least a yearly $10B subsidies.
| maxglute wrote:
| Anything within 30minutes of PRC theatre missile range
| doesn't add any geopolitical security to US semi supply
| chain. Further extending semi supply chain to SKR/JP if
| anything is potentially worse than TW because US provides
| them with security guarantee, in region where US is weakest
| relative to PRC, making them even more enticing targets along
| with US security infra in those countries. The maximally
| secure supply chain one is on CONUS, and not because it can't
| be hit, but due to escalation risk of targetting CONUS.
| zbrozek wrote:
| The US doesn't want new domestic anything. We have made it
| nearly impossible to build housing, transmission lines, power
| plants, factories, etc. It seems like the only thing we still
| know how to do and also want to do is roads.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> It seems like the only thing we still know how to do and
| also want to do is roads._
|
| And military equipment.
| selectodude wrote:
| We can't even make enough shells for Ukraine.
| supertrope wrote:
| Because NATO war plans depend on air power instead of
| getting bogged down in artillery duels.
| thereisnospork wrote:
| Boy is NATO going to have egg of their face then if they
| can't secure air superiority. Something something no plan
| survives contact with the enemy.
| noitpmeder wrote:
| It's my belief NATO could easily secure air superiority
| in any conflict where they commit forces entirely.
|
| Instead in Ukraine we have a proxy war where NATO
| countries are hesitant and reluctant to over commit.
| riku_iki wrote:
| NATO countries excluding US depleted air munitions within
| month in Libya:
| https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/nato-runs-short-on-
| some...
|
| Also, artillery shells is much cheaper way to deliver
| precise and fast strikes in urban environment compared to
| running aircrafts, so maybe such plans are not effective
| if this is really the plans.
| 15155 wrote:
| Take a look at the invasion of Iraq during Desert Storm
| and realize this isn't as big of a deal as one might
| think.
| HideousKojima wrote:
| NATO doctrine assumes we will have air superiority and
| has very few considerations for scenarios where that
| isn't the case.
| unglaublich wrote:
| A direct consequence of how the West treats real estate as an
| investment.
|
| People bet 10 x their yearly income on a property, and then
| they will do anything in their power to make that value rise,
| or at least not fall: NIMBYism. They will block any effort
| that potentially lowers the value of their property.
|
| And I don't think you can blame them, as we can't expect them
| to voluntarily lose a lot of money.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _direct consequence of how the West treats real estate as
| an investment_
|
| It's a direct consequence of NEPA privatising environmental
| review together with our lack of tort reform.
| rayiner wrote:
| Yes.
| givemeethekeys wrote:
| People bet a much bigger multiple in Asian countries. US
| real estate is cheap.
|
| Not to mention, the incredible 30 year fixed mortgage.
| yowzadave wrote:
| I don't think this is true in Japan?
|
| https://cheaphousesjapan.com/house-prices-in-japan/
| bugglebeetle wrote:
| Not in Japan they don't. Housing, outside of central
| Tokyo, is a depreciating asset (and even sometimes is
| there). Japan also has fixed rate mortgages that are
| currently offered at a lower interest rate than in the
| US.
| tonyarkles wrote:
| I'm not sure if this is still the case but for quite a
| while house prices in Japan seemed to be basically just
| the land value. It was expected that the first thing
| you'd do after buying a 20-30 year old house was to
| demolish it and build your own. And since population
| growth in Japan has flatlined and gone negative it's not
| a big surprise to me that they don't have a ton of demand
| for new land/housing.
| bart_spoon wrote:
| Some Asian countries, perhaps. In Japan, real estate is a
| (in)famously bad investment. Lots of real estate actually
| loses value over time, more like a vehicle in the US.
| givemeethekeys wrote:
| Japan, where the economy has been flat and the population
| has been falling for a while now is perhaps not a great
| counter example.
|
| Oddly enough, according to this:
| https://resources.realestate.co.jp/living/how-affordable-
| is-... homes in the US are still more affordable than
| those in Japan.
|
| I only did a quick search and clicked on the first
| result, btw, so take that with a boulder of salt.
| CoachRufus87 wrote:
| And weapons.
| mportela wrote:
| > It seems like the only thing we still know how to do and
| also want to do is roads
|
| Except it's usually done in a more expensive and slower way
| than in other advanced economies
| giantg2 wrote:
| We can't pump out lawyers and laws like we do and expect
| regulatory related delays/costs to actually decrease.
| Lazonedo wrote:
| >It seems like the only thing we still know how to do and
| also want to do is roads.
|
| And maybe not.
|
| >But the Texas Department of Transportation says converting
| paved roads to gravel is the only safe plan it can afford.
|
| https://www.texastribune.org/2013/08/19/conversion-of-
| roads-...
|
| > Omaha's Answer to Costly Potholes? Go Back to Gravel Roads
|
| https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/07/us/omahas-answer-to-
| costl...
|
| A pretty sad trend that keeps on growing.
|
| America has lost the ability to build and maintain. It's
| slowly deconstructing and dismantling itself.
| throwup238 wrote:
| That's not a problem with building, tons of people in the
| US know how to lay down asphalt and make concrete because
| its a very local industry (the materials are too heavy to
| be economical long distance). It's a problem with white
| flight and the post-war suburban expansion that way
| overbuilt the supporting road system without considering
| how much it would cost to maintain in the future.
|
| Now as more and more of the deferred maintenance bills come
| due, they have to make the hard decisions they should have
| made a long time ago.
| downrightmike wrote:
| USA has never been able to maintain, we rely on constant
| expansion to increase taxes and then the Federal Gov't
| comes out and pays for the road repairs because the states
| would need to charge at least twice as much tax as they
| currently do.
| gray_-_wolf wrote:
| > As a very reliable partner, Japan works fine for this
| purpose.
|
| It is pretty close to China, so in case of a war, it is not
| exactly great location (from US point of view).
| sergers wrote:
| And you know, natural disasters.
|
| Usa definitely not immune, but it's been seen how Japan
| getting hit with disaster affected the tech industry in past
| years.
|
| Production if anything spread out of Japan as a result.
| tjpnz wrote:
| Japans gain. There are already a bunch of local businesses
| setting up their own factories nearby to service it. This is
| going to be bigger for Kumamoto than Kumamon.
| mrpippy wrote:
| Japan isn't as threatened as Taiwan, but is still liable to
| earthquakes, tsunamis, and is uncomfortably close to both North
| Korea and Russia.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> uncomfortably close to both North Korea and Russia_
|
| North Korea has a main beef with South Korea and is full of
| starving people equipped with WW2 tech has no airforce and
| some nukes with questionable functionality, while Russia
| can't even move past Eastern Ukraine with all its power let
| alone venture into other areas.
|
| How are they a threat to other nations?
| IsTom wrote:
| > nukes with questionable functionality
|
| They seem to have ballistic missiles and they don't need to
| be particularly accurate to hit _somewhere_ in Tokyo.
| fweimer wrote:
| North Korea is currently involved in a proxy war in Europe,
| so it can't be _that_ short on resources.
| hef19898 wrote:
| All tgey have decades worth of production of artillery
| shells for Soviet guns, AK-style rifkes and ammo for
| those. Stockpiles, basically. And even those will run
| out. And before that happens, North Korea will slow down
| deliveries to Russia, after all the massive ammount of
| conventional guns pointed at Seoul are one of North
| Koreas trumo cards.
| falserum wrote:
| They dont need to conquer the country, they just need to
| damage the factory.
|
| (Only tiny bit relevant Russia allegedly blew up ammo depo
| in Czech republic in 2014 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2
| 014_Vrbetice_ammunition_war...)
| ben7799 wrote:
| North Korea has a major beef with Japan. They're still
| holding a grudge over being occupied in WW2.
|
| Interestingly a bunch of NK's aging infrastructure was
| supposedly built by the Japanese.
| verteu wrote:
| > The US doesn't want domestic chip production
|
| Wasn't the entire point of the CHIPS Act to "authorize roughly
| $280 billion in new funding to boost domestic research and
| manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States, for which
| it appropriates $52.7 billion" including "$39 billion in
| subsidies for chip manufacturing on U.S. soil"?
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act
|
| edit: I see -- The point of the article is that Congress's goal
| has been hindered "on the ground" by conflicts with
| construction unions, negotiations over profit-sharing with the
| US government, and environmental regulations that slow
| construction.
| WarOnPrivacy wrote:
| > Wasn't the entire point of the CHIPS Act to
|
| America has a huge number of interests. CHIPS is well
| announced but it's separate and apart from most of those
| interests.
|
| CHIPS is what we say we want.
| kevin_thibedeau wrote:
| It's a subsidy to prop up critical defense manufacturing. It
| will be of little benefit for consumer goods. It makes no
| sense to give Micron a new fab in the midst of layoffs with
| no prospect for future growth. It makes a lot more sense
| considering that Boise is an easier target for China than
| Syracuse.
| jacknews wrote:
| So TSMC are getting paid by the Japanese government to build the
| fab, some local big tech-related companies have also invested and
| partnered, and Japanese workers are less 'truculent' aka more
| easily coerced, than Americans.
|
| I mean, companies should weigh the frictions of doing business in
| different regions, but it can't be the only consideration when it
| comes to global policy on where things are made and why.`
| downrightmike wrote:
| China's missiles can Taiwan, they can hit Japan just as easily.
| spywaregorilla wrote:
| Some elementary geopolitics may disagree with you.
| tomohawk wrote:
| If it moves, tax it.
|
| If it keeps on moving, regulate it.
|
| If it stops moving, subsidize it.
|
| - Ronald Reagan
| iamtheworstdev wrote:
| holy shit what a misquote. For anyone that wants the whole
| quote:
|
| > Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few
| short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving,
| regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."
| nox101 wrote:
| Even that expanded quote doesn't entirely make it clear he
| was criticizing the government
|
| Here's the entire thing
|
| https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-
| state-...
| tjpnz wrote:
| It's Ronald Reagan though. Should be clear to most with a
| very elementary understanding of US politics what he's
| saying.
| Filligree wrote:
| Most people wouldn't really have that understanding.
| weebull wrote:
| If labour relations are a problem in American then there's no way
| they are expanding into Europe.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| TSMC is already expanding in the EU, specifically in Dresden,
| Germany. Because EU skilled labor is much cheaper than US
| skilled labor and in some aspects US unions are more powerful
| than unions in EU. That's why the EU is already full of semi
| fabs and other kinds of factories.
|
| Worker's rights are not an issue when labor is 30% of what they
| would have to pay in the US for the same skill/talent. US
| skilled workers don't have it any worse than EU skilled
| workers, often way better. This isn't flipping burgers at McD's
| where you have no bargaining power and need unions and labor
| regulations to protect you.
|
| And you need a lot of skilled people to operate a heavily
| automated semi fab: PLC programmers, opticians, physicists,
| material scientists, contractors, HVAC, electricians, plumbers,
| construction workers, Q/A, etc and irrespectable of workers
| rights, all those have much lower bargaining power for high
| wages in the EU than in the US, due to market supply/demand.
|
| Otherwise there would be no investments in the EU and nobody
| would be making stuff here at all.
| kranke155 wrote:
| 30%? You think they pay 30 percent US wages?
|
| You might be thinking of two very different things - in the
| US wages are higher but social benefits that employers pay
| for are lower. In the EU you might pay a lot more per worker
| than his wage since you pay much higher taxes.
| pylua wrote:
| Over the past 10 years the us dollar has gained in strength
| a lot compared to other countries. Perhaps if we want to
| bring this stuff back into the country the currency needs
| to be devalued. I assume it will be naturally devalued over
| time, even compared to other countries, considering the
| national debt.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| A friend of mine is a phd post-doc in the EU doing some
| fancy research I don't comprehend with lasers that has
| applications in the semi industry. He's paid about 40k
| Euros. His peers form the US he meets at conferences
| working in the same field make upwards of six figures, over
| 3 times as much, for the same work. So yes, I'd say my math
| was about right on the money.
|
| If you wanna hire skilled workers in the US it'll cost you
| 2-3x more than in EU, taxes and all included.
| silverquiet wrote:
| Healthcare being outrageously expensive in the US and
| being borne largely by employers doesn't seem to help
| either. Ironically, I see it as a negative for the
| employees as well since it forces them to be dependent on
| their employer in the event of a medical situation.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| Which is more expensive for an employer? US healthcare or
| EU workers' rights that include 25+ paid vacation days,
| unlimited paid sick leave, difficult to fire, etc while
| American workers don't, but get bigger wages instead?
|
| I don't know the exact answer, but what I'm trying to say
| is that there's no free lunch for employers in either
| location, but I'm pretty sure they do their homework on
| this and they know the exact answer when they decided to
| open up shop somewhere.
| silverquiet wrote:
| If I had to guess, I'd keep my finger down on US
| healthcare because it's just so expensive. When you don't
| pay your employees that much, sick time isn't as
| expensive either, and US workers in the actual industries
| we're talking about tend to get at least decent treatment
| (for the time being at least); it's the wage-slave,
| burger-flippers and laborers we've deemed as truly
| disposable.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| Sure, but we're not talking about burger flippers at McDs
| here.
|
| Those definitely cost more and have better working
| conditions in the UE than the US, but that's OK for McD,
| because the burgers flipped in the EU by the costlier
| workforce don't get exported worldwide, but get consumed
| locally and therefore all this is reflected in local
| prices for local consumers which have no competition from
| imports from abroad.
|
| But when we talk about skilled workforce for the semi
| industry and the products being fungible and exported
| worldwide, the equation can start to flip.
| silverquiet wrote:
| Another fair point, but I would think the semi industry
| (at least the segment that TSMC plays in) would be about
| the most advanced, least fungible good in the history of
| the world; they can literally only be made by that
| company. It's somewhat akin to commercial airliners -
| despite Boeing occasionally forgetting to fasten the
| doors to the fuselage, they have no shortage of orders
| because there are only two companies that can build these
| planes, with I think much of the assembly done in the US
| or EU. Essentially these things sit at the very apex of
| the world's current manufacturing capability.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> at least the segment that TSMC plays in) would be
| about the most advanced, least fungible good in the
| history of the world; they can literally only be made by
| that company_
|
| Not really. The margins Nvidia earns designing their
| chips are far higher than what TSMC earn fibbing them.
| TSMC actually has coemption. Samsung are only one node
| behind which is just enough to drive price competition
| down. Meanwhile Nvidia has no competition. You wanna be
| where Nvidia is, not where TSMC is.
|
| OF course, this might change in the future either way.
| elteto wrote:
| Not negating your anecdotal evidence but this is not even
| a fair comparison. Is 40k post-tax? Where does your
| friend in the EU live? Germany? Or Italy? Dresden or
| Torino? Where do his US peers live? Arizona? Or LA?
| Worlds of difference. Is it 3 figures but below $150k?
| Also, salary is _not_ the only cost of having an
| employee. In the US actual employee costs vary between
| 1.5x and 2x salary. What is the equivalent in the EU?
| voxl wrote:
| no way in hell a postdoc in the US is making 6 figures.
| Postdoc salaries are typically 40-60k
| bgnn wrote:
| Depends on the EU country. Phd students earn more than
| 40k during their studies in NL, and a starter salary for
| a phd is 80k or so. Add the social security contributions
| on top, it's closer to 100k Euros for the employer.
|
| 40k would be high for Greece ir Portugal though. I guess
| it's the same for US, depends where you are
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| The more worker's rights the less work?
| whimsicalism wrote:
| Sectoral bargaining agreements are less problematic wage-wise
| than employer unions.
| rayiner wrote:
| I just got back from vacation in Japan. It's completely
| unsurprising that American mid-skill workers are worse at
| cooperating on delicate large scale manufacturing than Japanese
| ones. The culture and habits of a country's population makes a
| difference, and the coarsening of Americans has been quite
| apparent to me over the last 30 years. I bet this delta between
| US and Japanese workers wouldn't have existed in 1960.
| kranke155 wrote:
| What? Really? You think the gap between 1960s American workers
| and Japanese workers was smaller?
| electriclove wrote:
| It was still wide then but even wider now.
| appleiigs wrote:
| Especially with the US social media trend of anti-work and
| quiet-quitting
| dingnuts wrote:
| > the coarsening of Americans has been quite apparent to me
| over the last 30 years
|
| sorry, the what of Americans?
| pfisherman wrote:
| I know! Who has ever thought of Americans as a particularly
| refined bunch? I know that we don't think of ourselves that
| way.
| rayiner wrote:
| How old are you? When my family came to northern Virginia
| in 1989, it was quite polished, conformist, and orderly.
| The George H.W. Bush East-coast WASP culture still
| dominated. The current generation of "think for yourself"
| "don't let anyone tell you what to do" kids was percolating
| through the education system, but they were not yet running
| anything.
|
| You can still see pockets of this. I was in Salt Lake City
| a couple of years ago and it was amazing. I was also in
| Iowa, and the older folks were pretty orderly, but you can
| see among the younger folks that southern redneck culture
| has been spreading.
| bart_spoon wrote:
| Salt Lake City/Utah is rapidly losing that culture as
| well.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> It's completely unsurprising that American mid-skill workers
| are worse at cooperating on delicate large scale manufacturing
| than Japanese ones._
|
| Watch the 1986 movie "Gung Ho" starring Michael Keaton, about a
| Japanese car company opening a fab in the US. It's amazingly
| witty and funny.
|
| The gist is that Japanese workers (and Asians in general) are
| expected to sacrifice their personal life for the good of the
| company with all the downsides that incurs for them, while
| American workers want to do the bare minimum at work and also
| expect to be paid significantly more than workers in Asia
| (duh!).
|
| In the globalized world of today (let alone the 1980's),
| manufacturing is a race to the bottom in terms of cost where
| you need to squeeze your labor as much as you can to keep costs
| down, and high income countries like the US, can't compete, nor
| do they want to because they have better options to pump up
| their GDP, like printing USD.
|
| So why do we keep discussing this over and over again? Working
| in factories competing with Asia kinda sucks for the 21 century
| wealthy westerner so they don't want to do it like in Asia,
| which is what it takes to keep prices low and consumers happy.
| So opening factories under these conditions seems like you're
| setting yourself for failure form the start.
| rayiner wrote:
| > So why do we keep discussing this over and over again?
| Working in factories competing with Asia kinda sucks for the
| 21 century wealthy westerner so they don't want to do it like
| in Asia, which is what it takes to keep prices low and
| consumers happy
|
| What's the alternative for your average American? They don't
| want to work like Asians in a factory, but they also don't
| want the dead-end service jobs that are the alternative in an
| economy where the real productive work is done overseas.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| Going into finance/tech or blue collar jobs if you don't
| want to go into debt. Have you seen how much
| plumbers/electricians/handymen earn? You don't need a
| university degree to earn good money.
| Nokinside wrote:
| Maybe it's not just the wage cap.
|
| There is plenty of semiconductor industry in the US but it's
| differently specialized and they compete for the same pool of
| engineers. Nvidia, AMD or Broadcom don't have fabs, but they
| hire engineers from the same pipeline as fab companies.
|
| It's few years since I was hiring EE majors in the US, but it
| felt that skilled people with EE master's are harder and harder
| to find every year. I think USC and CMU are the only ones that
| produce quantity and quality. MIT, Stanford, and Berkley
| produce quality but not quantity.
| selimthegrim wrote:
| Caltech?
| Nokinside wrote:
| If I remember correctly Caltech is in the quality over
| quantity group as well. Something like 100 - 150 graduates
| per year.
|
| Here is some data:
|
| CHIPPING AWAY ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING THE LABOR MARKET GAP
| FACING THE U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
| https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-
| content/uploads/2023/07/SI...
|
| >67,000, or 58%, of new jobs across manufacturing and
| design will risk going unfilled by 2030.
|
| Another nugget from Fig 6: More than half of the MS
| graduates in semiconductor-related engineering fields are
| foreign and 80% of foreign Master's leave the U.S.
|
| People in the US keep asking "Should I go to college?" and
| "Who needs calculus?"
| bsder wrote:
| > It's few years since I was hiring EE majors in the US, but
| it felt that skilled people with EE master's are harder and
| harder to find every year.
|
| Semiconductor pay is _dogshit_ compared to software. And
| everything is going to be in the office at whatever crap city
| has the fab--no remote work for you.
|
| Any EE smart enough to be good at stuff for a fab is smart
| enough to GTFO to software.
|
| The solution: cough up some damn cash.
|
| I have to use my microscope to go hunt for the world's
| tiniest violin when I hear companies complaining about hiring
| EEs.
| Vt71fcAqt7 wrote:
| >I bet this delta between US and Japanese workers wouldn't have
| existed in 1960.
|
| There was a larger delta then because US workers were much more
| skilled than Japanese ones in 1960
| ReflectedImage wrote:
| But Japan has a collapsing population due to said work ethic,
| which is a far more serious problem in the long run.
| ohnoitsahuman wrote:
| So does America.
|
| We've disguised it with massive immigration.
| radiator wrote:
| I agreen that also in America the population is collapsing,
| but I don't believe it is because of the work ethic.
| rayiner wrote:
| Has the Japanese work ethic gotten more intense since 1950,
| when their birth rate was well over three children per woman?
|
| I suspect the proximate cause of the drop is the hysteria
| about overpopulation that gripped all Asian countries in the
| 1960-1990s. The governments there raised two generations of
| people socialized to believe that having too many kids was
| bad for the country.
|
| Japan and Korea never had anything as barbaric as China's
| one-child policy, but the government heavily propagandized
| population control during the second half of the 20th
| century. They imposed taxes on families with more than two
| kids, heavily promoted abortion and sterilization, etc.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| Japan has the highest fertility rate in asia
| reducesuffering wrote:
| Not even close. One, Asia is a big place and includes
| countries like Pakistan with 3.56 fertility rate, and two,
| if you meant East Asia, North Korea has 1.8 tfr to Japan's
| 1.3.
| triceratops wrote:
| Asia consists of several more countries than China, Japan,
| and the Koreas.
| userbinator wrote:
| In 1960, the perception of consumer goods quality was entirely
| the opposite between US and Japan than it is today. "Made in
| Japan" was considered the same as "Made in China" today.
| spywaregorilla wrote:
| Yeah. On the broader level, look at the transit system of
| Tokyo. So many different companies cooperating so closely and
| making investments for the public benefit. Unfathomable in the
| US.
| subtypefiddler wrote:
| It boils down to
|
| - Labor relations (unions in Arizona pushed back agains Taiwanese
| workers build the factory)
|
| - Local partners (Denso/Sony and Toyota investing in Japanese
| project, TSMC on its own in the US)
|
| - Subsidies (Japan delivered on promises, US didn't)
|
| - Ambition (12nm-28nm in Japan, 4nm in US)
|
| It seems the US gov is not very serious about it while Japanese
| gov surely is. It sounds self-inflicted.
|
| (edit: formatting)
| schainks wrote:
| The US government currently is inhabited by one political party
| whose goal is to hinder US interests in any way possible while
| complaining that the US doesn't do enough to bolster said
| interests.
|
| So yes, part of the government is serious, while another part
| is serious about doing the opposite, which does produce the
| intended effect: public perception that the US government is
| not serious about these things.
|
| What it will take for all political interests to align for the
| sake of US interests? Probably turning off financial lobbying
| from shadow money groups.
| Pigalowda wrote:
| Says you! I think it's important for my political party to
| only a function when it has majority control over the
| executive, legislative, and judicial branches as well as
| majority control over provincial governance.
|
| Once we have that we can show our voters how disappointment
| really feels. It needs to feel so soul crushing we completely
| implode our party and die out in irrelevance. That's my
| thoughts on it anyways.
| throwanem wrote:
| How _dare_ you suggest a political party should offer some
| material benefit to its supporters in exchange for their
| effort and partisanship!
| huytersd wrote:
| Political influence isn't going to align if two sides of the
| country are irrevocably misaligned on some fundamentals
| (racism, LGBT etc.). There's no middle ground (mainly LGBT)
| on these issues so it's going to have to come down to a
| pseudo civil war with one side prevailing.
| hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
| As a gay person, this seems fundamentally wrong to me.
| There was even _more_ distance among the parties on most
| LGBT issues 25 years ago, but the ability of the parties to
| compromise on anything is much, much worse now than it was
| then.
|
| I also think there is much more "crossover" on LGBT issues
| than one may believe. Tons of Republicans are pro-gay
| marriage, and tons of Democrats have real concerns about
| allowing trans women to compete in women's divisions in
| sports.
| huytersd wrote:
| The trans thing is the deal breaker when it comes to the
| right. We never saw massive resistance to gay anything
| for the last decade or so.
| zzozzo wrote:
| There's definitely middle ground that could be negotiated
| if the will was there. For example, regarding the T (of
| LGBT), a liberal stance on people presenting how they want,
| and making it unlawful to discriminate against them for it.
| But at the same time, protecting single-sex spaces rather
| than redefining them in terms of "gender identity", and not
| punishing others for exercising freedom of speech and
| belief.
|
| So if Bob wants to call himself Brenda, wear a frock and
| make-up, and take drugs to grow breasts, then that's fine
| and he shouldn't be fired from his job for doing so. But
| this doesn't give him access to women's spaces, and if any
| of his colleagues don't want to refer to him as "she" then
| they shouldn't be censured for doing so either.
|
| This stance also protects LGB who may want to organize
| same-sex groups, such as lesbian speed dating or gay men's
| saunas, without having individuals of the opposite sex
| imposing themselves for self-identity reasons.
| huytersd wrote:
| If the prevailing notion is Bob is playing dress up as a
| woman I don't think there would ever be a problem with
| the right. The left would never agree with that.
| zzozzo wrote:
| I think it depends on which factions of the right and the
| left. As I understand it, left-wing radical feminists
| mostly already hold that view. And some on the socially
| conservative right may still object to Bob/Brenda
| teaching their children, for example.
|
| However I do believe this position, or one very similar
| to it, could be enough of a middle-ground compromise to
| satisfy most people.
| tarsinge wrote:
| That's not what I got from the parent. Besides, everyone
| is dressing up one way or another depending on the
| situation. The problem is putting all your identity into
| it. And conversely also imposing on others that some
| characteristics you find important in your own belief
| system should be part of their identity. Extreme left and
| extreme right both have issues with that.
| crooked-v wrote:
| A serious question: Do you believe that this person
| https://www.instagram.com/laith_ashley/, who is a
| transgender man, should be made to stay in women's spaces
| and use womens' restrooms?
| zzozzo wrote:
| Yes I do. Part of the middle ground compromise on this
| issue would be for people in general to be more accepting
| of those who don't conform to traditional gender roles
| and presentations, such as the masculine-styled woman
| whose Instagram you linked.
|
| Another potential middle-ground position on this issue is
| for third spaces to be made available to those
| individuals who don't feel comfortable in the spaces
| designated for their sex. For example, India has laws
| mandating this for their Hijra demographic.
| mikewarot wrote:
| The US government is currently inhabited by one political
| Duopoly, the RepubliCrats, who cater to the interests of the
| 0.001%, who keep us divided. It's been that way since at
| least 1970, if this set of interviews from 1970 is to be
| believed[1]
|
| [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeeA-IU45pc
| bigstrat2003 wrote:
| Amen. Both parties are equally hostile to my freedom and
| well being. I would love to have another option, but
| Americans have been brainwashed by the parties in power to
| think that they are "wasting" their vote if they vote for
| anyone else. I have voted third party in every election
| since I turned 18, but as long as that pernicious lie
| continues to spread nothing will change. It's a dumpster
| fire and I don't expect it'll ever be fixed in my lifetime.
| UberFly wrote:
| I'm honestly not sure which one you're referring to.
| e40 wrote:
| Must be the Republicans because they have been trying to
| strangle government for decades by making it look
| incompetent so they can point to it and say "see, I told
| you."
| TaylorAlexander wrote:
| Edit: I misread the comment
| downrightmike wrote:
| You read their comment wrong.
| somethoughts wrote:
| What states in the US should do is create a special economic
| zone where foreign companies can have have more freedoms with
| respect to labor relations initially.
|
| Then slowly convert those special economic zone into a normal
| commercial zone once critical mass has relocated to that
| location.
|
| I think the technical prowess w.r.t. semiconductor development
| and fab building probably exists in the US but its spread
| across the country in random locations.
|
| I think the issue in Arizona is you have a bunch of non-
| semiconductor construction companies attempting to bid on very
| specialized construction projects. As such they include a bunch
| of overhead in putting together the teams and ramping up on the
| technology.
| CPLX wrote:
| No. They shouldn't.
|
| I can't think of a worse American policy idea than giving
| preferential treatment letting companies exploit American
| workers more aggressively, but _only_ if the owners of the
| company who will profit from this are not American.
| ccorcos wrote:
| I don't think the exception would be just for foreign
| companies. It could be a geography set aside for free trade
| and no tariffs. This kind of thing worked very well in
| Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and (the entire country of) Singapore
| for example.
| fshr wrote:
| We don't need to eat the whole pie! We'd still get the
| taxes, wages, institutional training to develop skilled
| labor, and onshoring. Let them keep their IP and profit
| from their evolution.
| somethoughts wrote:
| This is about temporarily allowing companies such as TSMC
| to bring in their specialized fab building construction
| companies to get these mega projects built on time instead
| of insisting on fully local non-specialized labor.
|
| I think the key part of the proposal that you are missing
| is that it eventually (i.e. after a decade) gets rolled
| back to a normal economic zone and the special foreign
| privileges get rolled back.
|
| What you want is just insist that a small contingent of
| local specialized project teams be allowed to shadow the
| foreign teams. Its a bit of a marshmallow test for unions.
| CPLX wrote:
| That kind of thing already exists. It's trivial for large
| and well resourced foreign companies to bring in
| specialized foreign teams to work alongside American
| workers.
|
| What's happening here is TSMC just wants to undercut
| local wages.
|
| There are actually people who have gone in and done real
| reporting in the situation beyond reading press releases.
|
| https://prospect.org/labor/2023-08-11-econ-commentators-
| tsmc...
| petermcneeley wrote:
| I propose a name for your "special economic zone" could be
| "Galt's Gulch".
| TaylorAlexander wrote:
| I'm sure the point about labor unions is true in this case, but
| I did a quick search and it seems labor union participation is
| even higher in Japan. 17% in the Japan and 10% in the USA.
|
| I think in many ways we do labor unions wrong in the US, and
| from my cursory knowledge it seems like the Taft-Hartley act
| has a lot to do with it. That concentrated union power in the
| leadership which created an opportunity for more corruption,
| and also weakened certain powers that would make labor
| struggles more useful. Of course in Japan, they would likely
| use Japanese workers due to strong nationalist sentiment so
| this particular issue wouldn't occur.
|
| I'm only saying this because some will read your comment and
| take away "labor unions bad". I suspect that the truth is we
| aren't doing labor unions properly here, and also the desire to
| use Taiwanese workers suggests there is something lacking about
| the US education system. It is of course reasonable for US
| workers to want a chance, but we need to make sure they are
| worthy of that chance. You can leave it up to the market to let
| people find higher education, but that's going to leave smaller
| numbers in the end due to how wealth is distributed in this
| country. If you want higher numbers of educated workers, more
| provisions for affordable education are required.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| Labor unions in different countries are completely different.
| For example, China has almost 100% union participation but it
| isn't very meaningful. In some countries, unions are merely
| fronts for organized crime, in Japan and Northern Europe they
| are more like active partners.
| TaylorAlexander wrote:
| Sure. This reinforces the point that labor unions are not
| inherently a problem, but the way we do labor unions
| certainly can be. Most rhetoric I hear in the US is if the
| former type. I only know bits and pieces but it sounds like
| perhaps we could learn from how Germany does labor unions
| (and higher education and healthcare for that matter).
| mhh__ wrote:
| 12nm Vs 4nm seems like a big deal
| bparsons wrote:
| Japan is just better at building stuff. They have very advanced
| industrial policy which ensures that they have the capacity to
| manufacture goods and build stuff better than anyone else in
| the world. Even if the US had a functioning political system,
| it would still take decades to catch up.
|
| The IRA is a good first step, but it doesn't begin to address
| the underlying problems in the US economy. If you let the free
| market decide everything, it will always be more profitable to
| invest your money in a SAAS company or a suburban strip mall.
|
| The two countries are optimizing for very different things, and
| are dealing with a very different set of conditions.
| renewiltord wrote:
| The US is pretty good for a bunch of stuff. I'm hoping to one day
| also be a rent extractor. Like, all I have to be is a local
| organization somewhere and I can pull out some fictional required
| environmental review studies (waivable if you use our existing
| studies for $1.5 m) or required local community input (also
| waivable if you've used our org for outreach) or required hiring
| from my labour union. The US Gov supplies from a large pool of
| money. You just need a tiny fraction of that and you can
| parasitize to great personal wealth.
|
| Lots of sucker W-2 employees working while you can be a
| millionaire off other people's wealth. A startup that
| industrializes this process could do it to every project in the
| US and easily become a few billion. The hard part is concealing
| the relationship between the diverse entities, and watching out
| for the existing guys pulling this scam.
| selimthegrim wrote:
| I have definitely seen an LLM for government grants startup
| fundraising
| shortsunblack wrote:
| The simple truth is that due to decades of lack of investment,
| chronic individualism, poor vocational schooling and inflated
| university degree costs, US workers cannot compete. They are less
| competent, less disciplined, less skilled. Some of this is due to
| no fault of their own, while some of this is also due to the
| culture. This manifests in every facet of American industrial
| capacity -- from "toothpick and tissue paper" home construction
| to most basic manufacturing like injection moulding, where moulds
| are used far past their serviceing periods to churn out margins.
| barry-cotter wrote:
| Americans capable of being productive at TSMC cost too much for
| TSMC to afford. They can get better paying jobs with better
| work life balance, easily. Japan has a similarly terrible work
| culture and is much poorer than the US, like Taiwan, so TSMC
| has much less cultural mismatch to deal with.
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| This is a great response that sounds convincing. Right now
| high IQ hard working americans can choose law, finance,
| medicine or software for a pretty high ROI.
|
| I think this is less true in other countries, so those
| capable folk might be more evenly spread throughout various
| engineering fields.
| rayiner wrote:
| This is true. My parents wanted a doctor and an engineer.
| And while my brother and I both got STEM degrees, we ended
| up in law and finance, because those fields pay way more.
|
| I'm convinced that this is bad for your average American.
| It's good for the small slice of the population making high
| salaries at banks, law firms, advertising companies, etc.
| But that drives financialization of the economy, which is
| probably worse for the average worker. It might be better
| for the median American to cut down those industries and
| shift the economic mix to industries that create more solid
| middle class jobs.
| dctoedt wrote:
| > _It might be better for the median American to cut down
| those industries and shift the economic mix to industries
| that create more solid middle class jobs._
|
| Serious question: How, exactly?
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| Hopefully some of the large, profitable companies will
| eventually see it as an existential threat to have such a
| dependency on a single nation, and subsidize paying high
| comp for chip engineers and even manufacturing.
|
| This already happens to some degree slightly higher on
| the stack. For example firmware engineering is not
| generally a high paying subfield of programming, but at
| FAANG companies the comp is very high.
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| >we ended up in law and finance, because those fields pay
| way more.
|
| Compared to STEM research or an EE sure, but is this true
| compared to say, MD or FAANG software engineer?
|
| (assuming the same level of competence. I don't think
| every L3 AMZN engineer could hack it as a surgeon or
| something).
| resolutebat wrote:
| One data point that supports your assertion: Japan has 29
| lawyers per 100k population. The US has 4,000.
| dmurray wrote:
| Source for this? The ABA [0] gives a much more believable
| figure of 1.3 million "active lawyers", which is almost
| exactly 400 per 100k. So I suspect you are off by an
| order of magnitude, but perhaps you have a different way
| of counting lawyers.
|
| [0] https://www.abalegalprofile.com/demographics.html
| bg24 wrote:
| Agree. Nitpicking just one important things. A small % of US
| workers can compete. That's why we see best-in-class companies
| born in US.
|
| But mass workers... NO. So you are correct.
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| Why does this not apply to software?
| ohnoitsahuman wrote:
| Because a spark of genius is better than rote diligence in
| software.
|
| Say what you want about Americans, but few of them are
| wickedly clever and intelligent at the same time.
| selimthegrim wrote:
| What's the difference?
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| Hmm, i'm speculating but I'm thinking even the entry
| level software engineer has a lot of room to possibly
| fuck something up. Even if your architect/staff engineer
| comes up with a fantastic system, there's still the
| possibility of the jr engineer screwing up their tiny
| piece and implementing a 2^n solution and then the whole
| system crumbles.
|
| Conversely, there's room for (constrained) creativity
| from the bottom level as well.
|
| This _sounds_ quite different than say, chip
| manufacturing where I imagine there's more or a binary
| "you did the thing" or "you didn't". However I have very
| little insight into the process so I'm likely over
| simplifying.
| fragmede wrote:
| intelligence is broad cognitive capability, while
| cleverness is more about being quick and inventive in
| solving problems or handling situations
| rayiner wrote:
| A small number of 10x engineers can make world-beating
| software. Meanwhile, for most other engineering and
| manufacturing fields, you need a large number of skilled (but
| not genius-level) workers working in careful coordination and
| giving it 110% over a sustained period of time.
| pylua wrote:
| It's not so simple. There were previous articles posted on here
| months ago basically saying that the building standards are
| much higher in the United States in terms of permits and
| certifications and that is what is slowing things down. Sectors
| are heavily regulated in the United States which comes with a
| very high price tag, however, they are often done for the right
| reasons.
|
| If American workers are expected to follow the rules but other
| countries have less strict rules with different tradeoffs,
| maybe the regulations need to be examined.
| fallingknife wrote:
| Is there any evidence that the standards are actually higher
| and not just more expensive, time consuming,.and
| bureaucratic?
| KerrAvon wrote:
| Both things can be true. I'm sure there are ways to
| streamline the bureaucracy. But if you ignore Chesterton's
| fence you get Superfund sites dotting the landscape. The
| rules exist for reasons.
| fallingknife wrote:
| Rules always exist for a reason but as often as not the
| reason is to justify the existence of bureaucratic
| gatekeepers and not the actual stated reason for the
| rule.
|
| Unless there is a lower incidence of workplace accidents
| and environmental contamination at US facilities as
| compared to equivalent Japanese facilities then the
| additional rules are pure dead weight loss. And I have
| not seen any evidence that our factories are any safer or
| cleaner than Japan's.
| pylua wrote:
| Some rules are put in place to prevent situations that
| are extremely unlikely to occur in the first place, but
| are more catastrophic when they happen. Trying to compare
| incident rates would not account for how well rounded a
| system of rules really is. I would suggest that the best
| course of action would be to follow the advice of our
| fellow countrymen who drafted these rules, then ask other
| countries to follow it if they want to sale products in
| our country.
| fallingknife wrote:
| Why would I trust the rules made by my own government if
| I can see that other more productive countries are
| building things better and faster than us?
| paulmd wrote:
| > Rules always exist for a reason but as often as not the
| reason is to justify the existence of bureaucratic
| gatekeepers and not the actual stated reason for the
| rule.
|
| No, that's merely a reflection of your anarchistic and
| misanthropic worldview. Most people would not agree at
| all that "most rules" serve only to justify gatekeepers.
|
| You are free to jump the fence and fall into the gorilla
| exhibit if you want but there is still a very good reason
| the rule exists. And the fact that you apparently see
| such rules as a "minority" speaks more to you than
| anything.
| pylua wrote:
| Here is one the articles I was referencing.
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-
| mic...
|
| When I read through it again it I realized many problems
| seem similar to common issues in software projects.
| maxglute wrote:
| I think if TW standards is good enough to build 3nm chips
| on an earth quake zone, it's good enough for US. We're
| talking about building leading edge semi conductor not
| housing, which granted TW is hilariously bad at.
| pylua wrote:
| Apparently that is not what the regulations say? I don't
| think us employees / employers are able to go against the
| regulations without legal consequences.
| maxglute wrote:
| I'm more addressing the point that US building
| regulations (when it comes to fabs) has "higher
| standards" vs just being more onerous. Which your second
| sentence in original point addressed but I missed.
| kyrra wrote:
| "for the right reason"
|
| When companies have a choice to build in other countries then
| import product into the US, they will do that cost benefit
| analysis. If a country overly regulates and industry, it will
| just be made elsewhere.
|
| When politicians pass laws that just cause jobs to be
| outsourced so they can say they are doing "the right thing"
| but not attempt to force other countries to follow, all you
| are doing is virtue signalling and killing jobs.
| pylua wrote:
| That's the key thing -- not expecting other countries to
| follow the standard we set. At times it is also even the
| same values. It's absurd that we don't do this.
| CPLX wrote:
| You don't have to let imports flow into the country without
| assessing costs to that as well. These are all policy
| choices.
| jahewson wrote:
| That's protectionism and it makes us all poorer.
| rayiner wrote:
| A lot of those regulations also boil down to individualism
| and inability to balance social needs against individual
| desires. In the US, major infrastructure project that could
| serve hundreds of thousands of people can be held up by a
| handful of individuals whose property might be affected by
| the project. This sort of individual consideration is baked
| into most of our regulatory frameworks.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| The right reason is a preference, i.e. some in our state
| think the right reason is to prevent building so that
| manufacturing is done in other countries.
| bart_spoon wrote:
| It's important to differentiate between standards and
| regulation. It's entirely possible that the US has far higher
| bureaucratic red tape to navigate that increases costs and
| time but doesn't actually produce superior quality products.
| Gibbon1 wrote:
| Having dealt with standards and regulations in the US the
| problem isn't so much the regulations as the people enforcing
| them are adversarial. And they don't care about the costs
| they are imposing. I've also heard trades in the US behave in
| adversarial ways towards each other that would get them
| banned from future work anywhere else.
|
| Tidbit: The biggest driver of cost overruns is delays in
| construction. Adversarial permitting, trades, and the courts
| allowing disinterested parties to delay projects drives this
| in the US.
|
| Recent one I saw. 2000 sqft vacant lot filled with trash and
| weeds remains undeveloped because it would take years to get
| the variances and permits to build on it.
| downrightmike wrote:
| Those regulations are paid in blood, and we aren't going to
| accept any different.
| baggy_trough wrote:
| All of them?
| downrightmike wrote:
| You betchya
| beaeglebeached wrote:
| That's a cool story, but not true in all of Arizona. I
| built in Arizona and without code inspections or anyone
| checking I follow regulations. They probably just tried
| to build in a fascist shithole like Maricopa or Pima
| county where people with such deranged regulatory
| thinking congregate for their mental illness self support
| group.
|
| In my county we figured out that ' paid for in blood' was
| bullshit invented by corrupt inspectors and contractors
| and we voted to eliminate it. Draw a rectangle on a map
| and after that it's green light.
| thereisnospork wrote:
| At a previous job, planning regulations forced a mid 5
| figure expense for a dumpster enclosure[0] complete with
| roof and handicapped access. You know, in case someone in
| a wheel chair or on crutches needs to pull a dumpster out
| for collection.
|
| Whose blood wrote that regulation?
|
| [0]Next to grandfathered buildings who just chain their
| dumpsters to the alleyway, of course.
| meowtimemania wrote:
| What do you mean by paid in blood? Who's blood?
| supertrope wrote:
| American companies are higher up on the value chain. Fabless
| chip companies are more profitable than ones with fabs.
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| Until there's an embargo or...a blockade. There's probably
| value in sacrificing some profit for a hedge.
| GenerWork wrote:
| Building houses out of wood isn't necessarily a bad thing. It
| may be a bad thing in Florida due to termites and the fact that
| reinforced concrete can better resist hurricane force winds,
| but in California it's a good thing because wood can flex in a
| potential earthquake.
| fragmede wrote:
| We have civil engineers making skyscrapers that can withstand
| earthquakes made out of steel and concrete and mass dampers.
| Wood can flex in a potential earthquake, that's true, they
| used that in Japan centuries ago, but we've got better
| materials and technology today. We build houses out of wood
| because it's cheap, not because it's any good. Noise travels
| through wood way too well and that makes urban living a
| nightmare. As we try to cram more people together, we need to
| build things out of materials that are better so that you
| can't hear your neighbors coughing at night through your
| shared wall.
| AussieWog93 wrote:
| As opposed to Japan? US workers are pretty famous for being
| hyper-productive and highly skilled...
| CPLX wrote:
| American workers by any objective measure are at the absolute
| top for skills and productivity.
|
| Have you considered the idea that this story is being turned
| into anti-union propaganda?
| neonate wrote:
| http://web.archive.org/web/20240225085540/https://www.econom...
| Guthur wrote:
| Knowing the US modus operandi this was all a ploy to bleed TSMC
| while their own indigenous fab company (Intel) catches up.
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