[HN Gopher] How China Built BYD
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       How China Built BYD
        
       Author : thelastgallon
       Score  : 82 points
       Date   : 2024-02-18 16:43 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | sds357 wrote:
       | https://archive.is/pVDKq
        
       | bookofjoe wrote:
       | dup: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39382472
        
       | latchkey wrote:
       | Not sure why they'd name a car after a bird that shits
       | everywhere. -\\_(tsu)_/-
        
         | iancmceachern wrote:
         | Don't most birds do this? Couldn't you make this comment about
         | any bird?
        
           | latchkey wrote:
           | I live at the beach, seagulls are a special breed. It is
           | thought that they aim for humans too.
           | 
           | My comment still stands.
        
             | thriftwy wrote:
             | Soviet luxury cars for big bosses were called that also:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAZ_Chaika
             | 
             | I guess when you don't live near the coast, seagulls have
             | this romantic, sea faring, travel vibe.
        
             | iancmceachern wrote:
             | I live at the coast too.
             | 
             | I think they're remarkable. I think it's pretty cool how
             | they pick up mollusks and clams and such, drop them from
             | high on the rocks and sidewall to break them open to eat.
             | Clever.
        
         | yanellena wrote:
         | First thing I though when I saw this brand. 'Seal', 'Dolphin',
         | 'Seagull'. They should have perhaps asked a agency to brand
         | these cars a little better.
        
       | outside1234 wrote:
       | Subsidies, mandates, stolen technology, no environmental laws or
       | worker protections
        
         | magic_man wrote:
         | The biggest challenge is the battery which is what byd
         | originally made. Electric motors have been around for a long
         | time. The first cars were electric.
        
           | robin_reala wrote:
           | The first cars were steam, although electric cars were an
           | important part of the overall mix when they started becoming
           | more widely sold.
        
         | demondemidi wrote:
         | Tesla or BYD?
        
         | vdaea wrote:
         | No environmental laws or worker protections? Is this based on
         | truth or prejudice?
         | 
         | Subsidies and mandates are good when the EU does them but bad
         | when China does them?
        
           | google234123 wrote:
           | Western companies have been basically shut out of the Chinese
           | market since the beginning-even more is now. A huge trade
           | imbalance should have naturally balanced itself out in a true
           | free market. The fact it's been so distorted for decades
           | shows how bad it is. A rebalancing must occur and will be
           | good for everyone in the long run
           | 
           | Chinese policy making has been hugely protectionist and
           | interventions lost for decades.
        
             | rodgerd wrote:
             | Chicken tax.
        
               | google234123 wrote:
               | So...? Tariffs are just like subsidies or taxes, a
               | transfer of money between one sector and another sector
               | in the economy
        
             | robin_reala wrote:
             | Not sure that's entirely true, especially if we're talking
             | cars. Volkswagen China is around 50% of VW sales, and
             | Mercedes sells 40+% in China for example. If we're talking
             | US cars, they're typically too focused on US market desires
             | for other countries.
        
               | google234123 wrote:
               | With mandatory transfers of all technology and giving up
               | 51% ownership of the forced joint ventures?
        
       | Dunedan wrote:
       | What baffles me is Tesla's paralysis compared to BYD. Wasn't
       | Tesla's goal to do rapid expansion to stay on top of everybody
       | else volume wise? Nowadays Giga Berlin produces way less vehicles
       | than anticipated and the only new factory being planned is Giga
       | Mexico, which also seems to proceed slower than expected. In
       | addition while the next vehicle from Tesla will probably be a
       | smaller and cheaper car, it's still at least a year before
       | they'll be able to ship it. All that while Tesla seems to have
       | lots cash at hand, so why don't they expand more aggressively?
        
         | rapsey wrote:
         | They have the most popular car in the world how are they
         | paralyzed?
        
           | petee wrote:
           | I couldn't find a single list that had Tesla anywhere near
           | #1; source?
        
             | sidibe wrote:
             | For individual models I've seen Model Y as #1. But seems
             | like growth has stopped, so paralyzed is still appropriate,
             | and they only have 2 models that sell significant numbers
        
               | formerly_proven wrote:
               | Most other OEMs have (way way) more than four models, so
               | that kind of list doesn't really make much sense to begin
               | with.
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | The Model Y is the most popular car in the US only if you
               | don't classify pickup trucks as cars. Pickup trucks
               | dominate car sales in the US.
        
             | modeless wrote:
             | The Tesla Model Y was the world's best-selling vehicle in
             | 2023. Hard to imagine you looked seriously and were unable
             | to find that out.
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y
        
           | ein0p wrote:
           | Quick search suggests BYD made 3.02 million cars in 2023.
           | Tesla: 1.8M
        
             | kurthr wrote:
             | Yes, but half of BYD's cars are hybrid. Only ~1.6M are EV.
             | They've also been around making batteries since 1995 and
             | ICE cars since 2003.
             | 
             | It's not like Tesla's subsidies have been small, but BYD's
             | have been enormous.
        
               | patientzero wrote:
               | Sounds like a Tesla killing recipe for the existing
               | automotive industry.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | As they should have been in both cases. For most uses EV
               | is superior, and this is the only way for Chinese
               | manufacturers to meaningfully tackle the broader markets
               | worldwide. You can't compete with ICEs and hundreds of
               | billions of dollars invested into that manufacturing
               | capacity, supply chains, and know how. But you can
               | entirely sidestep the whole thing. Which is what the
               | Chinese are doing.
        
           | makeitdouble wrote:
           | Individual model sales don't make much sense as a metric when
           | makers are diversifying. The model Y has 1.2M sales for a
           | total of 1.8M Tesla cars in 2023, where Toyota alone is at
           | 11.2M.
        
         | ein0p wrote:
         | Perhaps they know something we don't. The news outlets won't
         | shut up about EV demand "slipping". That could be because they
         | don't like Musk, but it could also be real. In a post-truth
         | society there's no way to know.
        
           | green_goober wrote:
           | You can always read financial reports like 10-Ks and see what
           | the company says and what their number say. Numbers like that
           | don't really lie.
           | 
           | The media has never been a "source of truth" at the best they
           | act as watchdogs, at the worst they are propaganda. You can
           | still find answers for yourself but good information has a
           | time cost.
        
             | ein0p wrote:
             | Demand is a lagging indicator, and worse, they have to plan
             | well ahead for how it changes. Building multiple billion
             | dollars worth of production capacity ahead of a severe
             | recession would be a potentially fatal decision.
        
               | green_goober wrote:
               | You can always use leading indicators (unemployment,
               | inflation) to estimate future car sales, then extrapolate
               | the EV market share based on current growth numbers. It's
               | not perfect but it's not like large institutions somehow
               | have a crystal ball. They are likely doing the same, just
               | with better models.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | The only leading indicators you need in the car market
               | are days of inventory and recent price actions.
               | 
               | Tesla's have deep discounts, suggesting a decline in
               | demand. The end. Inventory is harder because they lack
               | dealerships, but it doesn't seem difficult to find a
               | Model3/ModelY right now at all.
               | 
               | -------
               | 
               | For other EVs like Ford Mustang MachE, days of inventory
               | are rising and prices are declining as well as
               | incentives.
               | 
               | It's not just Tesla, it's a wide group of EVs that were
               | overproduced.
               | 
               | https://caredge.com/guides/fastest-and-slowest-selling-
               | cars-...
               | 
               | Go browse some stats yourself.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | You're considering those metrics as though they're
               | independent from APR on loans, which could easily double
               | from where they are now in case we enter a recession and
               | rate hikes prove ineffective. Try to sell an expensive
               | car on a loan with an eye watering APR of, say 10-12%.
               | This did actually happen in the past, and could very well
               | happen again.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | > recession
               | 
               | You've got it backwards. Recessions cause rate-drops.
               | 
               | > Try to sell an expensive car on a loan with eye
               | watering APR of, say 10-12%. This did actually happen in
               | the past, and could very well happen again.
               | 
               | Rate-hikes cause us to lose demand. Yes. But we can see
               | that Toyota demand remains strong with less than 30-days-
               | of-inventory on the average.
               | 
               | So the rate-hikes from the current Fed plan are causing
               | expensive cars (like EVs) to lose demand, while cheaper,
               | more-reliable ICE / Hybrid cars from Toyota are selling
               | like hotcakes.
               | 
               | Yes, I'm watching interest rates and am trying to
               | understand how our economy shifts because of them. But at
               | this base level, EVs are doing worse (and the stats prove
               | it), while cheaper cars (namely ICE/Hybrids) are doing
               | far better right now than anyone expected.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | Don't look at recent recessions which happened under
               | almost zero rate regime. Look at the Carter era
               | recession. Consider as well the cost of "printing money"
               | if the rate reaches double digits, and the cost of
               | refinancing the existing debt load.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | You've got my wording reversed.
               | 
               | I said: recessions cause rate-drops. Which has always
               | been true. Rate-drops don't always cure recessions, but
               | its one of the first moves a central bank will make to
               | try to fix a recession.
               | 
               | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
               | 
               | That's 2020, 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1979 where a
               | recession immediately caused a rate-drop.
               | 
               | We have to go all the way back to 1974 before we had
               | inflation so high that the central bank kept rates high
               | even during a recession. (Dropping rates causes
               | inflation, so its a balancing act). Even then, interest
               | rates dropped to bring us out of the recession of 1974.
               | 
               | After that, we have 1969, 1959, and 1957 recessions, all
               | three of which caused interest rates to drop.
               | 
               | So 9/10 times, a recession caused an immediate drop in
               | interest rates. And the last 1 time (1974), the recession
               | _eventually_ caused the bankers to drop rates.
               | 
               | > Consider as well the cost of "printing money" if the
               | rate reaches double digits, and the cost of refinancing
               | the existing debt load.
               | 
               | You've got it backwards. Increases rates destroy money.
               | Lower-rates print money.
               | 
               | That's why the central bank lowers rates during
               | recessions, its an indirect way to print money (or
               | perhaps more accurately, expand M2).
               | 
               | Raising rates, like what we're doing today, destroys
               | money (or more accurately, contracts M2). We're
               | destroying money today with 5%+ interest rates because
               | we've seemingly made too much in the 2020 recession /
               | COVID19.
        
               | tomcam wrote:
               | Discounts seem to be $2K for a $47K Model Y long range
               | picked from inventory---is that actually deep or can I
               | find better deals?
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-y/2022/
               | 
               | > Price: The 2022 Tesla Model Y starts at $64,990. A
               | Model Y Performance model starts at $67,990. Fully
               | loaded, a Performance model can exceed $80,000.
               | 
               | Is there any other car, EV or otherwise, that is seeing a
               | 33%+ decline in price over the last two years?
               | 
               | Other EVs are seeing deep shadow-discounts. I'm seeing 0%
               | or 1.9% APY financing, which comes out to a few $x,000
               | savings over the term of the loans. Its an interesting
               | trick to reduce prices without changing the MSRP, but I'm
               | perfectly aware of these games.
               | 
               | Still, no one is doing the depth of discounts like Tesla
               | is doing right now. Granted, all EV makers (Ford F150
               | Lightning, Subaru Solterra, etc. etc.) have discounts of
               | some kind, or at least financing-1.9% or other "shadow
               | discounts". But nothing on the level of wtf 30%+ declines
               | like Tesla.
        
               | mavhc wrote:
               | Tesla sell more EVs in USA than everyone else combined,
               | partially because they can cut prices. Is any other
               | company even making a profit selling EVs in USA?
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | The comparison is a little weird because Tesla changes
               | their pricing a lot.
               | 
               | The Model 3 price is down ~25% year over year:
               | 
               | https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-3/2023/ (Long Range MSRP
               | $45,990)
               | 
               | https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-3/2022/ (Long Range MSRP
               | $57,190)
               | 
               | But that's still higher than its release price in 2017:
               | 
               | https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-3/2017/ (Long Range MSRP
               | $45,200)
               | 
               | And the "target price" for this thing was supposed to be
               | $30,000.
               | 
               | It's hard to do the same comparison for the Model Y
               | because it was originally released in the middle of the
               | COVID supply chain problems, but notice that the year
               | you're using was the high water mark. The Model Y
               | Performance was $69,190 in 2022 but $61,190 in 2021:
               | 
               | https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-y/2021/
               | 
               | 2022 - 2023 was -32% but 2021 - 2023 was only -16.5%,
               | which itself presumably had some of the supply chain
               | issues priced into it.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | Both unemployment and inflation numbers are known to be
               | fake though. They're specifically designed to make the
               | government look good. One would be a fool to rely on them
               | exclusively.
        
               | green_goober wrote:
               | Then I guess nothing is truly measureable and we should
               | never attempt to make predictions.
        
               | ipaddr wrote:
               | If unemployment and inflation rates are politically gamed
               | nothing is truly measurement?
               | 
               | Many things can be measured. And unemployment is
               | measuring something but not what it's titled suggests.
               | It's measuring some group of people who qualify as
               | looking for work within a specific timeframe. Someone
               | looking for work for a few years is deemed to employed by
               | this calculation some might question it.
               | 
               | Changing the definition of a recession is political.
               | 
               | That doesn't mean measurements are incorrect and
               | prediction is impossible.
        
               | green_goober wrote:
               | My comment was sarcasm. OP is being a defeatist to anyone
               | trying to explain that, yes, actually, you can measure
               | these things. You don't need the media to spoonfeed you
               | fake information.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | They are not totally fake, but engineered to show only
               | the good parts. Like when fuel prices drop, and this
               | appears in the data as huge inflation reduction, when in
               | fact food and shelter prices are growing faster than
               | anyone wants to admit.
        
           | Lonestar1440 wrote:
           | I don't like the "post truth" trends in politics either, but
           | I don't think there was _ever_ a time when treating  "news
           | outlets" as "truth" was actually a good strategy. They've
           | always had biases, blind spots, and agendas - just like they
           | do now.
        
           | cedilla wrote:
           | Or maybe they are just fucking up since their CEO is occupied
           | with other things. Or they face an uphill battle against an
           | opponent that is essentially state-backed. Or it's just very
           | hard to scale up a car manufacturer, even if you want to very
           | hard.
           | 
           | History shows that no company ever was as superior to its
           | competition as it may seem at their height. Shit's hard yo.
        
           | thebruce87m wrote:
           | There are almost daily reports of demand falling despite
           | sales still going up (just not as fast). The general public
           | are being conditioned by these articles to believe sales are
           | going down. Obviously someone benefits from this narrative as
           | it's being pushed pretty hard.
        
           | roncesvalles wrote:
           | If I had to gander a guess, most of people who were going to
           | buy an EV have already bought one, and a certain percentage
           | of the market will always be impenetrable so long as charging
           | a car battery is more inconvenient than filling up a gas
           | tank.
        
             | Tostino wrote:
             | Far from the truth. I have been building PEVs since I was
             | in my teens (ebikes, scooters, a boat). When it came to buy
             | a new car for the first time in my life in 2020, there were
             | no EV options that would do what I needed (large cargo
             | capacity, 6+ seats, not extremely expensive, decent range
             | for road trips).
             | 
             | Sorry, I'm not spending 100k on a vehicle.
             | 
             | So I ended up getting a Palisade for around 32k, and my
             | wife and I share that, at least until until better (and
             | cheaper) EV options appear.
             | 
             | Luckily I can use my ebike for most of my around town
             | travel, and that is way less of a carbon footprint than
             | adding an extra vehicle to the roads.
        
             | rstuart4133 wrote:
             | That would be a very game guess, given up until last year
             | EV sales look to be rising quadratically or better.
             | https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-
             | car-...
             | 
             | It's more likely EV sales are driven by cost. They have
             | always been more expensive than ICE cars, so they only
             | eaten into the luxury market up until now so the rises you
             | see are increasingly bigger bites out of the luxury market.
             | But the primary cost is batteries, and a blip during COVID
             | aside the cost of batteries has dropped every year. EV are
             | approaching the cost of ICE cars now, if you include a bit
             | of hand waving about maintenance costs.
             | 
             | Once they cross cost threshold and drop below the cost of
             | ICE cars, that quadratic curve will go exponential for a
             | while. Chargers will spring up like weeds, because you can
             | make money out of them and they cost far, far less to build
             | and run than a gas station.
        
           | TulliusCicero wrote:
           | I recently bought an EV and it's obvious that they still have
           | some significant downsides: expensive up front and poor
           | public charging situation, mostly.
           | 
           | The ID4 we got is very comfortable to drive around in, but
           | doing a road trip in Winter feels out of the question. Not
           | that it'd be completely impossible, mind, but I'm pretty
           | confident it'd be a pain in the ass. We'd need to stop more
           | frequently than in our CRV, for a longer period of time each
           | time, and the whole situation with electric car chargers are
           | that sometimes they're broken or working worse than expected,
           | or they're all taken (and it takes way long for a spot to be
           | freed up than at a gas station), or there's problems with the
           | software running the charger, etc.
           | 
           | It'd also be nice if it charged faster and had more range
           | too; it's not terrible on those metrics, but I wouldn't say
           | it's great. Certainly not comparable at all to gas cars.
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | Most people don't do roadtrip. They just charge at home.
             | 
             | If you drive a tesla, a supercharger stall is usually
             | available. No other kind of chargers I found either work,
             | or are compatible with my tesla.
        
               | TulliusCicero wrote:
               | Yes, this is exactly what we do.
               | 
               | But it would be _nice_ to be able to road trip more
               | easily, and 100% this is an important factor in a lot of
               | people 's decisions, even if road tripping is something
               | they do only infrequently.
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | > Most people don't do roadtrip. They just charge at
               | home.
               | 
               | It's very common for Americans to drive long distances to
               | visit family for holidays.
        
               | loeg wrote:
               | The median American lives within 18 miles of their mom
               | and 80% within "a couple hours."[0] 55% are within an
               | hour's drive of their extended family.[1] The majority of
               | Americans do not drive long distances for holidays. It's
               | common, but like, most people aren't doing it, which is
               | congruent with GP's statement that "most people don't
               | roadtrip."
               | 
               | [0]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/24/upsho
               | t/24up-f...
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-
               | reads/2022/05/18/more-than...
        
               | wcfields wrote:
               | Midwest especially; growing up a one day drive across the
               | entire width of Illinois and Indiana to see relatives was
               | a common occurrence for the holidays and our summer
               | family trip.
        
             | ein0p wrote:
             | Should have bought a Tesla - they had the foresight to
             | actually build their supercharger network which makes
             | longer trips feasible, if not necessarily as convenient.
             | But I go on long roadtrips (by which I mean longer than
             | 200-250 miles) maybe once a year, if that. What you've
             | described is not an issue to the vast majority of Tesla
             | owners.
        
               | TulliusCicero wrote:
               | My wife really disliked the Model Y we took for a test
               | drive, especially the road visualization that you can't
               | turn off for some reason. Can't fully blame her, the
               | thing looked unstable/distracting, and making it
               | impossible to turn off is a bizarre UX decision.
               | 
               | But yes, I'm aware that Tesla has the charger situation
               | handled much better.
        
               | doctor_eval wrote:
               | Does anyone know what that visualisation is about? It
               | doesn't bother me, but it also doesn't help me or give me
               | any useful information.
               | 
               | If it showed me the road behind me, for example, that
               | would be super useful for lane changing. But it doesn't.
               | 
               | I have never once been able to work out what it does, and
               | would love to see the map take up the whole screen, or
               | maybe a list of route instructions could go there.
               | 
               | I also noticed that the "full self driving preview"
               | option seems to have disappeared (it never worked anyway,
               | guessing it's because we drive on the left)
        
               | saratogacx wrote:
               | My assumption was that it was to help build confidence in
               | their self-driving by always showing you what it sees no
               | matter if it is control or not. It does have some effect
               | in that you start to get a feeling of what situations the
               | car has a good idea about the surroundings and when it
               | struggles.
               | 
               | There is probably a "it looks cool" factor that doesn't
               | hurt.
               | 
               | As far as UX options. Providing customization is old-
               | school thinking these days :/
        
               | pests wrote:
               | It does show some indicators form proximity sensors.
               | 
               | Pretty much though what the other commentor said - to
               | give a visualization into the self driving for the user.
               | 
               | When traffic cones and street signs were added to
               | Autopilot - you can bet that visualization was updated to
               | show it off.
               | 
               | Same when they added stop light detection.
               | 
               | It makes sense to me. For some, that visualization
               | literally _is_ the AI, for all they know.
        
               | doctor_eval wrote:
               | Agree. I did an 6-hour/500km drive last week in my model
               | 3, we had to charge once. Found a supercharger in the car
               | park of the local golf course.
               | 
               | The anxious feeling about "will the charger work/will
               | there be a space" is real, but the more EVs are out
               | there, the less this is going to be a problem.
               | 
               | My petrol car could have done the trip without
               | refuelling, but it would also have cost, literally, 5x
               | the cost of charging in fuel.
        
               | manmal wrote:
               | Isn't the supercharger network now open to everyone? Or
               | is that an EU only thing?
        
               | TulliusCicero wrote:
               | I checked and no. It seems to only be some a relative few
               | stations.
        
               | opinion-is-bad wrote:
               | Most OEMs have signed deals with Tesla to use their
               | network in the US, but I don't believe these have yet to
               | go into effect.
        
             | coliveira wrote:
             | The truth is that EVs work very well in China and parts of
             | Europe because they have good public transportation, so the
             | EV is used only for minor or infrequent trips. For anything
             | longer they will use trains. In the US the situation is
             | different, you need to use cars for major trips, which is
             | not the best option if you have an EV.
        
               | qwytw wrote:
               | > longer they will use trains
               | 
               | There isn't really any data backing up this claim.
               | 
               | https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-
               | news/w/e...
               | 
               | Planes are much popular and this data seems to include
               | commuters so the proportion of people travelling medium
               | to long distances by train is much lower (and most
               | medium/intercity travel is obviously usually done by car
               | and not trains..)
               | 
               | Amongst other significant issues (e.g. cross border
               | travel) high-speed trains tend to be quite expensive, so
               | unless you're travelling alone a car is usually cheaper.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | This is what I still can't comprehend about Amtrak. I
               | priced out a bus trip to a few states away and it was
               | <$40. Amtrak cost more than a plane ticket. Is it
               | astonishingly overpriced because nobody uses it and then
               | nobody uses it because it's astonishingly overpriced?
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | Train systems require heavy government investment until
               | they can (maybe) produce any profit. But the same is true
               | for other transportation systems: the auto industry is
               | also heavily subsidized at all levels in the US, you just
               | don't hear the numbers.
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | [delayed]
        
               | ambichook wrote:
               | you can fly several states over for $40? damn, if i were
               | to fly from, say melbourne to sydney, capital cities of
               | neighboring states, it'd be at minimum $150 AUD (~$100
               | USD) round trip. interstate travel is way more accessible
               | there huh?
        
               | nkurz wrote:
               | I think you misread him. He was said that the bus (ground
               | transport) was $40, and that the train (Amtrak) was more
               | than a plane. He didn't say how much the plane cost. Your
               | $100 USD for a short flight is probably the low end of a
               | reasonable estimate here in the US too.
        
               | ambichook wrote:
               | ah, yes i see that now, my bad :)
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | In Europe, yes.
               | 
               | https://www.ryanair.com/gb/en/lp/promotion/getaways
               | 
               | That page shows me flights to Bulgaria, France and Italy
               | for around EUR25.
               | 
               | It is more like EUR50 if you aren't flexible, and more
               | again if you need business-friendly times.
        
           | to11mtm wrote:
           | At least in the US, Auto demand has slipped a little bit with
           | the changes to financing, some manufacturers are still being
           | hesitant to offer incentives, and some dealers seem insistent
           | on acting like we are still in full-on covid whiplash
           | shortage mode with slimy upcharges.
           | 
           | Sprinkle in the various reliability issues that have come up
           | recently (regardless of whether they are better or worse than
           | what happens to ICE vehicles)...
           | 
           | Oh, Also, Kinda wondering what's happened to Kia/Hyundai's EV
           | sales due to public perception, I still see probably as many
           | of their EV's as I do GM[0]
           | 
           | [0] It's around this order, not counting plug-in hybrids and
           | M-Plates[1]: Tesla, Ford, Hyundai/GM, Rivian, Polestar,
           | BMW/VW
           | 
           | [1] M-Plate is a "Manufacturer's" License plate. Not all
           | states have them, but mine does and due to where I run into a
           | lot of them. Since they range between prototypes and 'company
           | car' they don't count in the ranking.
        
         | popularonion wrote:
         | I take Elon at face value when he recently said "We kind of dug
         | our own grave with the Cybertruck"
        
           | iamcreasy wrote:
           | It does not sound as ominous if you also include the next
           | line he said.
           | 
           | "We kind of dug our own grave with the Cybertruck. It is
           | going to require immense work to reach volume production and
           | be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford. It
           | will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant cash
           | flow contributor."
        
             | peebeebee wrote:
             | They should have just put everything on Tesla model 2. In
             | Belgium everyone is excited for a 5000 EUR tax cut for EV
             | vehicles below 40000 EUR. Lots of people interested in
             | buying Model 3 and Model Y now. But 35000 EUR is still too
             | much for the general public. If they could've released a
             | model 2 for 25000-30000 EUR instead of the Cybertruck, it
             | would have dominated the EV market.
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | Tesla's are absolutely everywhere in my corner of Europe,
               | which is by all metrics poorer than Belgium. Tesla is
               | already dominating.
        
               | rvnx wrote:
               | Isn't it at least because it is not possible to purchase
               | BYD in your country yet ?
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/best-selling-
               | car...
        
               | speedgoose wrote:
               | It's very much possible to buy a BYD in Norway, yet they
               | don't sell well. I don't know why BYD doesn't try harder.
               | Maybe too small market to bother investing a lot, so they
               | rather import a few cars at too high prices to check the
               | Norway box.
               | 
               | https://elbilstatistikk.no/
        
               | rvnx wrote:
               | Norway is (I believe?) the flagship country for Tesla, so
               | it may be more difficult to pierce.
               | 
               | I remember EV's penetration is super high there.
               | 
               | Very cool link to see the imports!
               | 
               | I was questioning availability of the cars, because I
               | think this is the key issue for BYD.
               | 
               | I wouldn't want to buy a car where you cannot get
               | support.
               | 
               | In Estonia for example, Tesla's are not very popular for
               | that reason, because for a long time, you couldn't even
               | buy them from the official website (so you had to go
               | through gray imports and drive to Finland for the routine
               | maintenance), it's somewhat better now.
               | 
               | But BYD is simply unreasonably difficult to purchase, and
               | if you do, then just doing a routine maintenance (or if
               | you have an accident) sounds much more difficult than
               | Tesla.
               | 
               | Once they solve that distribution problem (and don't get
               | under political sanctions), I think they can be really
               | great cars.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | > Once they solve that distribution problem (and don't
               | get under political sanctions
               | 
               | That's the problem, I believe BYD will be sanctioned to
               | hell in Europe (not to mention USA). They will, however,
               | easily dominate on BRICS and other places outside rich
               | western countries.
        
               | magicalhippo wrote:
               | When we were looking for our next EV last summer, the
               | BYDs all had some weird design elements that killed the
               | vibe for us one way or another.
               | 
               | We ended up with a Renault Megane e-Tech[1], very pleased
               | with it so far. Our garage was built for 1970s cars and
               | can't fit the new monsters, so choice was limited.
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.renault.co.uk/electric-vehicles/megane-
               | electric....
        
             | saiya-jin wrote:
             | Never grokked real market for it - all the toyota hilux
             | owners? These type of cars are basically not used in
             | Europe, you can sometimes see it on farms but almost never
             | on the roads and general population simply doesn't buy
             | them, they are not the best choice since they drive poorly
             | and have high running costs, and also way too big for our
             | roads and parkings.
             | 
             | Also, legendary hilux has solid reliability in brutal
             | conditions (thats why every isis in desert has them,
             | ideally with some gun or rockets mounted in the back). No
             | way some early 1st generation of much more expensive
             | electric car will match that. You want to have that safety
             | of lugging around additional fuel tank or two in jerrycans
             | and refuel in a minute, instead of doing additional mental
             | gymnastic re chargers.
             | 
             | So a bad civilian car, and farmers are very price sensitive
             | so not a great choice for them (now).
        
               | cduzz wrote:
               | Tesla has a history of making low volume prototypes that
               | they sell to weird early adopters and then making high
               | volume cars. The prototypes validate the designs without
               | as much potential for a crushing warranty bill if a
               | technology bet isn't great.
               | 
               | For instance, tesla went through several varieties of
               | battery chemistry in the early days of the S before
               | landing on the setup they ended up sticking with for the
               | model 100 and later models.
               | 
               | The CT is a similar low volume prototype of the maxwell
               | technology dry cell battery stuff, 48 volt and "drive by
               | wire" architecture that is 100% novel. They're really
               | better off just selling it to a smaller number of people
               | until they get the bugs worked out. The stainless steel
               | stuff is cute but not the hard part of the CT.
        
               | ephemeral-life wrote:
               | I think it was an attenpt at the luxury SUV market. A lot
               | of rich people drive huge SUV's, the cybertruck can kinda
               | be a quirkie suv. The hilux type workhorse trucks will
               | never be replaced by anything electric (atleast on the
               | global scale, america might have a chance with the f150
               | lightning)
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | Its kind of funny how people digging Tesla grave when BYD rise
         | is a way bigger problem for all other car companies. Tesla is
         | still producing a huge amount of EV compared to everybody.
         | 
         | Tesla strategy is to have huge factories, not many factories.
         | They are not only building Giga Mexica. There is currently
         | expansion of Berlin and Texas.
         | 
         | In addition to that they have many other things and locations.
         | Such as their own lithium refinement. Battery materials factory
         | in Austin and stuff like that.
         | 
         | > All that while Tesla seems to have lots cash at hand, so why
         | don't they expand more aggressively?
         | 
         | As Musk has pointed out, the real limit isn't money but the
         | ability to hire experts and to manage all these complex
         | projects.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | BYD's battery division is an absolute gold mine like AWS is for
         | Amazon.
         | 
         | BYD is the primary battery supplier for most consumer
         | electronics (you're iPhone or Macbook is using a BYD battery
         | for example).
         | 
         | Tesla doesn't have an "AWS" equivalent to subsidize it's
         | automotive division, as the Solar+Grid Battery+Battery
         | Management Systems divisions have much lower margins and higher
         | upfront cost.
        
           | a1o wrote:
           | > BYD is the primary battery supplier for most consumer
           | electronics (you're iPhone or Macbook is using a BYD battery
           | for example)
           | 
           | Hey, do you have a source for this? I am trying to find this
           | information online but I am failing to find, but it sounds
           | super plausible. In their own website there's not much
           | information other than their batteries are used in other
           | things besides cars - link to the site below
           | 
           | https://www.bydglobal.com/cn/en/BYD_ENProductAndSolutions/Ne.
           | ..
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Apple's Supplier list from FY22 -
             | https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-
             | Supp...
        
               | a1o wrote:
               | Amazing! Thank you! Pretty cool information!
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Company
               | 
               | Somehow it wasn't in theit Wikipedia either - it mentions
               | briefly something about batteries for common electronics
               | but doesn't details or mentioned Apple. Anyway, thanks
               | for the source!!!
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | Np.
               | 
               | Most Chinese corporate information isn't going to be
               | found on English Wikipedia tbh.
               | 
               | It's an insular industry and most OEMs and VARs are
               | Taiwanese, Chinese, Singaporean, Thai, or Malaysian so
               | Mandarin is the preferred language as they're all owned
               | by the SEA Chinese diaspora
        
               | moneywoes wrote:
               | what's the best data source?
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | Idk.
               | 
               | I've grown up reading business news/trade news in the
               | tech industry since I was a kid, my dad was in the
               | industry, and I am as well, so all these names are common
               | to me.
               | 
               | All I can say is any long read business news you see in
               | NYT or WSJ is 3-5 year behind trends.
               | 
               | If it made it to either, it's already at the 4th-5th part
               | of the Gartner Hype Cycle (which itself deserves a hype
               | cycle)
        
               | natpalmer1776 wrote:
               | What information sources would you recommend for the
               | industry?
        
               | m2mdas2 wrote:
               | Same. I thought that I was avoiding bubble as much
               | possible. It seems that I am living in a special bubble.
        
               | B1FF_PSUVM wrote:
               | > any long read business news you see in NYT or WSJ is
               | 3-5 year behind trends
               | 
               | That bad?
               | 
               | Sounds like a business opportunity ...
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | > Mandarin is the preferred language as they're all owned
               | by the SEA Chinese diaspora
               | 
               | Wouldn't the SEA Chinese diaspora be more likely to speak
               | Hokkien? Or maybe Cantonese?
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | I feel like you mixed up BYD and CATL.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Nope.
             | 
             | Apple and BYD had a contract dispute around 2015-17 [0]
             | though it ended up getting dismissed by the USDCNDC, but
             | CATL was always targeting the Power Electronics space like
             | Siemens and Hitachi while BYD cornered the rechargeable
             | battery market by 2010 when Berkshire Hathaway and Samsung
             | took a minority stake in them
             | 
             | [0] - https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USCOURTS-
             | cand-3_15-cv-04...
        
               | tomcam wrote:
               | Profile checks out ;)
               | 
               | Do you have a blog?
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | Maybe. Maybe not.
        
           | pphysch wrote:
           | I heard on the grapevine that 60% of a US "Tesla gigafactory"
           | is actually a Panasonic battery factory. The battery vertical
           | is definitely a critical part of this story.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | I've heard a similar story as well. I think the US
             | factories is partially owned by Panasonic and the Shanghai
             | one is partially owned by CATL.
             | 
             | I don't think Tesla really hired any battery engineers or
             | R&D either come to think of it.
             | 
             | If they did, they would have had an R&D office in Japan or
             | SK who are leaders in Battery Chemistry but I don't think
             | they have a presence there at all.
             | 
             | Most likely Tesla and Panasonic are co-sharing IP with
             | Tesla taking a lead on Battery Management Software (a very
             | hard problem) and Panasonic on Battery Manufacturing and
             | Efficiency (an equally hard problem)
        
               | mavhc wrote:
               | Tesla acquired Hibar Systems in 2019, and Siilion in 2021
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | That's no secret. Here's the Panasonic press release from
             | 2014. "According to the agreement, Tesla will prepare,
             | provide and manage the land, buildings and utilities.
             | Panasonic will manufacture and supply cylindrical lithium-
             | ion cells and invest in the associated equipment,
             | machinery, and other manufacturing tools based on their
             | mutual approval. ... Tesla will take the cells and other
             | components to assemble battery modules and packs."[1]
             | 
             | Panasonic now has another cell factory in North America, in
             | DeSoto, Kansas. This time, Tesla is not the landlord.
             | 
             | A "cell" is a single unit device, and a "battery" is a
             | group of connected cells. Panasonic makes cylindrical cells
             | in standard dimensions. Others assemble the cells into into
             | battery packs. Much of the rechargable battery industry
             | works like that. Plants that make cells are mostly chemical
             | plants, and some of the chemicals are corrosive, toxic, and
             | flammable. Once the chemicals have been canned into a neat
             | little metal can, assembly into packs is a routine
             | manufacturing operation.
             | 
             | It's possible to make integrated batteries. Classic 12 volt
             | lead-acid auto batteries have six cells, producing 2 volts
             | each. BYD is heavily into integrated batteries, with their
             | "blade" technology. There are lots of things that can go
             | wrong in integrated battery manufacturing, but if the
             | process can be debugged, the density is higher and the cost
             | is probably lower.
             | 
             | [1] https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/en140731-3
        
           | nrp wrote:
           | BYD is big in the lithium ion cell and pack space for
           | consumer electronics, but ATL (not CATL) has higher market
           | share in most categories.
        
         | gimmeThaBeet wrote:
         | I mean is it just like, interest rates? Even if they have cash
         | on hand, I'm assuming any big moves they would make are still
         | really capital intensive because it's the auto industry.
         | 
         | By stuff Tesla and Musk have said, they are expecting slowing
         | sales growth, but part of that is also because they said they
         | are developing a new car. But other comments have just been
         | standard demand and competition.
         | 
         | So is it just they don't think it's a good idea to keep
         | expanding at past pace into uncertainty while hurdle rates got
         | much higher?
        
         | JoshTko wrote:
         | A couple of main issues. In the US. Company EVs are currently
         | not possible because they would be too expensive. The 7.5k IRA
         | discount only applies if car and battery are manufactured in
         | the USA. Tesla/panasonic is the only large scale battery
         | manufacturer in the US and capacity is tapped out for existing
         | models. Tesla would need to 4x this capacity to sell compact in
         | the US with sufficient volume/margin. Tesla's Mexico plant will
         | achieve volume production at start of 2026. Second issue Elon
         | messed up. Elon assumed that he would be able to either scale
         | 4680 battery production a lot faster OR FSD would have achieved
         | L4 autonomy by now which would unlock 3x utility of existing
         | fleet via owners lending their car to rideshare when not in
         | personal use. If this happened the need for a compact vehicle
         | would be in theory greatly lessened. Neither happened and Elon
         | has no backup plan. Hence why he is 2-3 years behind BYD in
         | developing a compact EV.
        
           | hbarka wrote:
           | I remember the time when the Nevada Gigafactory was really
           | hyped up. It was supposed to dwarf even the largest Amazon
           | Distribution Center and the plans were expand it to where you
           | could see its octagonal shape from outer space. It was to be
           | in the size of hundreds of football fields. Planes and drones
           | flown by fanboys hovered over the site and posted weekly
           | updates on how magnificent the progress was, like we were
           | watching a modern-day pyramid endeavor. Of course, it was
           | just another Musk distortion field. Today it's only at 30% of
           | the fantastical plans. The stock went up though.
        
             | letmevoteplease wrote:
             | According to this list, even its current state, the Nevada
             | Gigafactory has the most floorspace of any warehouse in the
             | world (5.3 million ft2, followed by Boeing with 4.3 million
             | ft2). Not entirely unimpressive.
             | 
             | https://www.avantauk.com/top-14-largest-warehouses-in-the-
             | wo...
        
               | hbarka wrote:
               | Tesla does impressive things but are the very definition
               | of hype:
               | 
               | Full Self Driving but really lane keeping assist L2
               | 
               | Mother of all factories but really 30% of mother
               | 
               | Vacuum-sealed underground tubes capable of moving people
               | en mass at high speed but really a 15mph underground
               | paved road for Tesla cars
               | 
               | Linear growth of battery density but stuck on same
               | chemistry
               | 
               | Used to have radar but now disabled on cars that have it
               | because vision is like the human eye don't need anything
               | else
        
               | pests wrote:
               | aka we don't want to maintain the vision and radar code
               | bases / theyve drifted apart so lets just work on the one
               | everyone has
        
               | hbarka wrote:
               | There is no drifting apart. If so then there will be full
               | regression to the minimum viable product, the low end
               | Tesla. It was a conscious choice in order to save margin
               | during the chip shortage post-Covid but under the pretext
               | of vision is best. Radar-equipped cars used to be able to
               | see through fog and heavy rain now nerfed.
        
               | pests wrote:
               | I meant they would have had two maintain the logic for
               | vision and radar and new features could be developed for
               | one over the other. Calling it the same thing and trying
               | to support the same settings with both was increasing
               | workload so they decided to just implement the lowest
               | common denominator.
        
           | tw04 wrote:
           | You also forgot stomping on all of his engineers and
           | designers and demanding an untenable design for the cyber
           | truck. All of that wasted time and effort could've been spent
           | on a smaller EV vs a truck that's going to struggle to gain
           | any market share outside of Tesla loyalists.
        
             | mavhc wrote:
             | Can't make a cheap EV until you can make enough cheap
             | batteries
        
               | SR2Z wrote:
               | No, that's not it. I refuse to buy a new Tesla because of
               | some of the less user friendly (and IMO should be
               | illegal) cost cutting measures:
               | 
               | - Horrible QA
               | (https://www.equinoxevforum.com/threads/cracks-
               | developing-in-...) - Extremely customer-hostile support
               | strategies (https://arstechnica.com/tech-
               | policy/2023/08/angry-tesla-cust...) - Absurd cost-cutting
               | measures/temporary bouts of insanity that cripple the UX
               | of their cars: - Why does the Model 3/Y not have steering
               | wheel stalks!? - Why did they try to offer the Model S
               | with only a (bad) yoke!? - Why is there no HUD/gauge
               | cluster on the Model 3/Y!?
               | 
               | I won't even get into just how ugly I (and anecdotally,
               | many of my friends) find the Cybertruck; have you SEEN
               | videos of people trying to actually use it as a truck and
               | it completely failing to function offroad?
               | 
               | All of this stuff is directly attributable to Elon Musk.
               | He's demanding a 25% stake in the company from his board
               | - the same board that was found to be so absurdly stacked
               | in his favor that his last pay package was thrown out.
               | 
               | Shareholders, at this point, should kick this guy out of
               | Tesla and leave him to his true passions: shitposting on
               | Twitter and SpaceX.
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | I agree, not only have they stopped making new sane cars,
               | but they're actively making their existing cars worse!
               | 
               | * no indicator stalks
               | 
               | * no forward/reverse control
               | 
               | * apparently the automatic rain sensor doesn't work/exist
               | (I think that's always been true; I just learned about
               | it)
               | 
               | It very much reminds me of Apple's backwards steps with
               | magsafe, touchbar and the keyboard. Maybe they'll come to
               | their senses but I dunno...
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | > the same board that was found to be so absurdly stacked
               | in his favor that his last pay package was thrown out.
               | 
               | It was thrown out purely on the grounds that the judge
               | didn't like it. The pay package was approved by Tesla's
               | non-Musk general shareholders.
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | Thrown out by a judge in the most corpo state on the
               | country. It was so embarrassingly badly handled they
               | couldn't even rubber stamp it.
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | It was handled fine. If it had been badly handled, it
               | would have been thrown out on those grounds. Instead, the
               | grounds were "there is no reason for Elon Musk to be paid
               | this much".
        
               | doctorpangloss wrote:
               | The batteries could be imported from China.
               | 
               | Or maybe the whole car could be imported.
               | 
               | You could have a cheap EV in America with a stroke of a
               | pen. Thats kind of the point of the article. I mean maybe
               | not on purpose.
        
             | dangus wrote:
             | I'm not one to be bullish on Tesla under Elon Musk but I
             | don't see how the Cybertruck was a waste considering that
             | it's squarely placed in the most popular and profitable
             | segment of the automobile market in North America.
             | 
             | It's almost dimensionally identical to the F-150 and the
             | masculine "look at me" cyberpunk appearance is 100% in line
             | with basically everything about the big three automakers'
             | trucks' demographics.
             | 
             | The only thing BYD can do differently is eat up
             | unprofitable markets like the $20,000 econobox EV.
        
               | Draiken wrote:
               | BYD will have dominated the world before Tesla does
               | anything at this rate.
               | 
               | Here in Brazil, EVs basically didn't exist. Only very few
               | Prius were seen around, and I mean very few.
               | 
               | Now, BYD showed up and everywhere you go you see one. Had
               | Tesla been there, the same would have happened. But they
               | chose to not even try (or weren't competent enough to do
               | it).
               | 
               | BYD is doing the same in many other countries. Pretty
               | soon I can see BYD being the main provider of EVs in
               | multiple countries. Tesla had years of advantage and
               | totally missed the opportunity to expand into those
               | markets craving EVs.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | > which would unlock 3x utility of existing fleet via owners
           | lending their car to rideshare
           | 
           | I still don't understand why anyone ever thought that was
           | going to happen. Even if the autonomy were there, who was
           | really going to use their car for rideshare when they didn't
           | need it themselves? I know some people thought it would bring
           | them a lot of value, because that's what Elon promised. But
           | the reality would have been a classic race-to-the-bottom, and
           | they'd have been lucky to break even after accounting for
           | wear and tear.
        
             | JoshTko wrote:
             | It's not so much most regular people would do rideshare
             | that much. It's more that every new Tesla sold after L4 was
             | achieved would be bought by small biz folks, Uber, etc.
             | specifically to use for rideshare and would pay a premium
             | for both the car and for FSD software.
        
             | pests wrote:
             | It will be awesome when your own car pulls up at 8am to
             | take you to work and there's vomit and trash everywhere,
             | spilled drinks, dirty shoes, stale vape smoke lingering in
             | the air.
             | 
             | Sure there might be rules and fines but people already do
             | all this when there is real human driving the taxi!
             | 
             | Plus, do you really expect everyone to treat your items
             | with the same respect and care you do? Even little things
             | like slamming the doors or scratching up the seats with
             | metal belts or jean studs.
             | 
             | Yeah maybe Tesla will make it right. But at how much
             | effort? How correct will it be fixed?
        
           | mastazi wrote:
           | The IRA discount only applies to the US market, where AFAIK
           | BYD is not even present, right? So it doesn't really explain
           | why Tesla is trailing behind BYD globally.
           | 
           | Or maybe your point is "Tesla is not helped by its government
           | as much as BYD is"? Which could be a fair point.
        
           | pests wrote:
           | Level 4 needs a driver outside of the small existing tests
           | involving geofencing. I don't see how anyone would be loaning
           | out their Tesla's for rideshare anytime soon.
        
         | fnordpiglet wrote:
         | I thought their goal was to stay on top of everyone margin
         | wise. Margin is better than volume in every dimension.
        
           | Closi wrote:
           | Not always - volume is often better than margin if you are in
           | a competitive market and have enough access to capital (other
           | things being equal).
           | 
           | Particularly if you are taking market share from your (higher
           | margin) competitor. If you can sell two cars at half the
           | margin, that _can be_ better than one car at double the
           | margin if your competitor got the other sale, assuming your
           | strategy is to take the market (i.e. wipe out your
           | competitor).
           | 
           | High margins tend to be hard to defend in the long run
           | (without building a moat).
        
         | coliveira wrote:
         | The problem is that, in Germany and the US, Tesla costs are
         | going through the roof. They can expand in China, but probably
         | don't want it. They can also do it in Mexico, but won't be fast
         | either.
         | 
         | The truth is that China has, through government decision,
         | created a full supply chain for EV production, mirroring their
         | success in other areas. The US is several years behind them.
         | Tesla can invest the money in the US to catch up, but it will
         | be very costly, so probably they won't be able to do what you
         | wish.
        
           | api wrote:
           | Bottom line is that private companies can't compete with
           | governments. China heavily subsidizes its industries, far
           | more than the US or Germany, and makes it easy for them to
           | operate.
        
             | blackoil wrote:
             | Very simplistic view. US has also given billions in
             | subsidies to US ev makers and protectionism. One reason
             | Tesla is so big on US is China is not allowed to enter.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | BYD is nominally a private company. What you're really
             | getting at is that governments can subsidize industries to
             | give their domestic companies an unfair advantage, and
             | China does that aggressively.
             | 
             | Other countries could do the same thing or punish China for
             | it via tariffs etc., but doing nothing seems like a bad
             | idea.
        
             | coliveira wrote:
             | The US also heavily subsidizes its industries. It is just
             | not done in a smart way. US money goes mainly into
             | increasing profits of already rich companies, so they have
             | less incentive to innovate and create new products. China
             | spreads its money across the whole industry, so new
             | companies will benefit and create a complete supply chain.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | A lot of Chinese money just goes to zombie SOEs, but are
               | really funding some official's villa and foreign
               | education for their kid. Chinese money can be just as
               | dumb as American money. There were a ton of scammy EV
               | companies selling basically golf carts when China first
               | started subsidizing EV development and sales. It took
               | around half a decade to get rid of those.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | Nothing is perfect, but Chinese strategy is smarter
               | overall. They achieve a lot with less money.
        
           | to11mtm wrote:
           | China had cleaner way to allow corporate barnstorming as
           | well, due to it's general state/status.
           | 
           | Vehicles in china there don't have to be nearly as safe (for
           | better or worse) and range anxiety is less of an issue for
           | many of the residents, thus the tiny Electric vehicles we see
           | that sometimes can't go over 25-35MPH (I think one or two may
           | have even used lead batteies, practically adult sized power-
           | wheels...)
           | 
           | Additionally, BYD had the advantage of being in the LiFePO
           | and mass manufacturing game very early. I remember seeing
           | their booth at the Detroit Auto Show back in... 2008-2010ish?
           | and they had a couple of vehicles out for display. However it
           | became seemed clear they were more interested in showing off
           | battery tech to others and the vehicles in a way felt
           | presented like 'Reference Boards'.
        
         | dandy23 wrote:
         | But why expand if no one buys their cars? There are so many
         | more players selling EVs now both from China and Europe. It's
         | harder to sell when you have competition.
        
         | MomoXenosaga wrote:
         | Musk has many goals. He also does drugs and gets involved into
         | politics. There's only 24 hours in a day.
        
         | roenxi wrote:
         | I'm not sure about this specific case, but the general case is
         | usually that China is using some technique that is illegal in
         | the US. Or sometimes energy policy is the problem.
         | 
         | You mention Giga Berlin for example. Germany is suffering from
         | the EU energy crisis (which really has been an ongoing thing
         | since around 2008 when the per capita downtrend in energy took
         | hold), so it wouldn't be weird if cars being produced there
         | aren't competitive with Chinese-manufactured goods.
         | 
         | Similarly, US manufacturing doesn't seem to have the same
         | vibrancy as Chinese work and the root causes seem to be
         | environmental and labour law. It is also possible that the US
         | just doesn't have the expertise; as far as I'm aware the US
         | doesn't have an answer to Shenzhen (I'm happy to be told this
         | is just ignorance, the US is a big place, but so far no dice).
        
         | Jonanin wrote:
         | FWIW, Tesla's market cap is almost 10x BYD's. So the market
         | does not necessarily agree with this assessment. One reason is
         | that Tesla competes exceptionally well in the international
         | luxury car market. BYD pushes a lot of metal at low margins.
        
         | fatkam wrote:
         | Tesla need to lower costs.
        
       | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
       | Only a Tesla killer if they can beat Tesla in the race to full
       | self-driving.
       | 
       | Talking about self-driving - any ideas what's going on with
       | Tesla's FSD V12?
       | 
       | They published a live stream of Elon Musk driving it, and gave it
       | to exactly _one_ Youtuber, who is now putting up video after
       | video how he drives it.
       | 
       | Both the live stream and the Youtube videos show vastly improved
       | self-driving capabilities.
       | 
       | But if this is real, why don't they push it to customers?
        
         | ein0p wrote:
         | Tesla will not be able to deliver true FSD with its current
         | purely computer vision based stack
        
           | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
           | Why not? How do humans drive if not by vision?
        
             | rvnx wrote:
             | Using sound as well
        
             | ein0p wrote:
             | Because humans drive using general intelligence - something
             | we can't replicate anywhere yet, let alone in a power-
             | constrained car.
        
               | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
               | something we can't replicate anywhere yet
               | 
               | _yet_
               | 
               | That's why it's a race.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | You don't understand. The stack currently deployed in
               | Tesla vehicles _will never be capable_ of anything even
               | remotely resembling AGI. There's just not enough compute
               | there by several orders of magnitude, even if we knew how
               | to do it, which we don't.
        
               | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
               | not enough compute
               | 
               | Which type? Storage? Compute speed?
               | 
               | How do you know what the lower bound for AGI is?
        
             | IncreasePosts wrote:
             | Regardless of the issue processing the data to the level
             | that humans can very quickly, is the camera hardware
             | they're putting in Tesla comparable with human eyes?
             | Specifically with dynamic range - seeing in shadowy areas
             | on a sunny day, or not being totally blinded by a headlight
             | at night?
        
               | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
               | We would have to look at the camera footage of crashes
               | and then think about whether a sufficiently intelligent
               | person could have avoided the crash given those visuals.
               | 
               | My feeling is that yes, with enough intelligence, even
               | low res cameras are sufficient.
        
             | timeon wrote:
             | Self-drive is not about human, is it?
        
             | Veserv wrote:
             | Well, for one, humans have two eyes in front with the same
             | focal length giving us binocular vision. The people at
             | Tesla apparently think humans only have one eye which is
             | why they keep spewing the nonsensical analogy to human
             | perception.
             | 
             | That is just the most glaring error with that analogy. It
             | ignores more subtle issues like how human eyes have higher
             | resolution than 5 megapixels. Human eyes are also much
             | better at contrast, have adaptive focus, are attached to a
             | mobile mount, etc.
             | 
             | The only people who would originate a intentionally
             | deceptive argument that humans can drive with vision
             | therefore Tesla's can drive with their camera setup are
             | undeniably con artists trying to sell a lie. The people who
             | are duped into promulgating that lie can be forgiven for
             | being swindled by those con artists, it is why they are
             | called con artists.
        
           | snovv_crash wrote:
           | The problem is the world modeling and decision making, not
           | the perception.
        
             | ein0p wrote:
             | I work in this field and own a Tesla. It routinely sees
             | things in my garage that aren't there. I would not entrust
             | my life and that of my family to their "FSD", and I know
             | the science does not exist to fix out of domain errors
             | 100%. It is an outstanding product in all other regards. I
             | just wish they'd stop promising the stuff they obviously
             | can't deliver
        
               | snovv_crash wrote:
               | I work in this field too. And I'm not saying the FSD is
               | good. I'm saying cameras are effectively photon counters
               | these days and the leaps forward we've seen in text and
               | image generation from ML, has yet to impact robotics in
               | any meaningful way.
        
         | vehemenz wrote:
         | Trains are better than self-driving cars. China's electric cars
         | don't need self-driving because they have developed world train
         | infrastructure, while the US doesn't.
        
           | ovi256 wrote:
           | Nobody's taking away trains, relax. You'll be able to take
           | them even if others make other transportation choices.
        
       | feverzsj wrote:
       | Tesla is basically against a whole country which has the world's
       | second largest economy. The cheapest model of BYD is around
       | $8,000 and the BYD will get much much more subsidies from the
       | government. Big China companies like BYD, Huawei can literally
       | get infinite funds and other resources from the government.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | More so the fact that BYD's battery division is an absolute
         | gold mine like AWS is for Amazon.
         | 
         | BYD is the primary battery supplier for most consumer
         | electronics (you're iPhone is using a BYD battery for example)
        
           | feverzsj wrote:
           | Yes, with infinite resources, cheapest price, no one can beat
           | them.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Or mostly the fact that Apple decided to make BYD their
             | primary battery supplier in the early 2000s over dozens of
             | other companies.
             | 
             | Batteries are a low margin high skill industry. Battery
             | makers in SK/JP/US/TW decided to go upmarket where margins
             | are much higher and competitive moats stronger (due to R&D,
             | IP, and/or procurement requirements)
        
         | roncesvalles wrote:
         | Meanwhile the US government bipartisanly hates Tesla.
        
           | dragontamer wrote:
           | Sounds like a problem the CEO of Tesla should work on. Or is
           | he too busy Tweeting?
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | He's too busy schmoozing his hand-picked board to give him
             | billions in bonuses for dutifully doing the job of--let me
             | check my notes here--abusing ketamine all day while
             | pretending to be CEO of multiple companies.
        
               | qwerasdf5 wrote:
               | A contractual agreement (that Elon met) is 'schmoozing'?
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | A contract written by yourself (aka: Largest shareholder)
               | given to a board you picked (aka: Chairman of the Board
               | of Directors), giving yourself a payraise (aka: about the
               | CEO's bonus pay) is obviously null and void.
               | 
               | You can't just give yourself a pay-raise. Even if you're
               | the largest shareholder, the controlling member of the
               | board of directors, and CEO of a company.
               | 
               | If you accept the public's money, then the _other_
               | shareholders, even small minority stakes, have a say in
               | the matter.
               | 
               | If you don't like the fact that Delaware looks out for
               | smaller shareholders, you can I guess move out to other
               | states or something. But for the most part, people accept
               | the fact that public companies have rules that go above-
               | and-beyond normal. Wanton acts of corporate corruption
               | aren't tolerated in Delaware.
               | 
               | --------------
               | 
               | The rule in play here is shareholder fiduciary duty. The
               | Board of Directors failed to represent the needs of all
               | of its shareholders like they are legally obligated to
               | do. A large pay-bonus to a CEO who already controls a
               | large stake in Tesla (who'd benefit from Tesla improving
               | anyway) is obviously a bad move. No other CEO in history
               | had such a large share-increase bonus.
               | 
               | In any case, looking out for the little guy is a deeply
               | American value. We understand the problems associated
               | with Tyranny of the Majority. If you want to fully own a
               | company, then stay a private-business (like the Mars
               | family), don't come begging to the public for public
               | money.
        
               | riehwvfbk wrote:
               | Looking out for the little guy is an American value?
               | Walmart and Amazon warehouse employees would like a word
               | with those mythical Americans.
        
               | PaywallBuster wrote:
               | big enough shareholders get to place their own board
               | members
               | 
               | you seem to have it backwards:
               | 
               | > Typically, the board chooses one of its members to be
               | the chairman (often now called the "chair" or
               | "chairperson")
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Board_of_directors
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | https://people.com/human-interest/elon-musk-steps-down-
               | chair...
               | 
               | Elon Musk, IIRC, was Chairman, Largest Shareholder, and
               | CEO when the deal in question / contract was written.
               | 
               | Elon had a spat with SEC who removed him as chair, but
               | Musk remained largest Shareholders and CEO after that.
        
               | qwerasdf5 wrote:
               | This is incorrect. There is no "pay raise" if he doesn't
               | meet his contractual obligations. He almost got 0
               | dollars. How is that a pay raise?
        
               | cj wrote:
               | It's surprising how quickly the HN sentiment on
               | individuals can change. What was the tipping point for
               | musk?
               | 
               | A couple years ago a comment like this would be [dead] in
               | less than a couple minutes.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | When someone says bullshit about rocket science, its hard
               | to argue because we aren't rocket scientists.
               | 
               | When someone says bullshit about mass manufacturing of
               | cars, its hard to argue because we aren't mechanical
               | engineers.
               | 
               | When someone says bullshit about running a website...
               | guess what? Hacker News is full of programmers, venture
               | capitalists, and website owners. Suddenly Elon Musk is
               | speaking our language and what we see from Twitter is...
               | uggghhhh....
               | 
               | Elon Musk hasn't changed much. All that's really happened
               | is that he moved back into a proper technology discussion
               | in a subject people around here are deeply familiar with.
               | The standard levels of bullshit he spouts are
               | insufficient when the audience here has a much deeper
               | understanding of online advertisements, bots, user
               | engagement, UI issues, and the like.
        
               | qwerasdf5 wrote:
               | If they have a deeper understanding of these things, then
               | why haven't they produced a real competitor?
        
               | ambichook wrote:
               | probably because of the classic "making twitter is easy,
               | getting twitter to a billion people is hard"
        
             | qwerasdf5 wrote:
             | Perhaps the government should stop hating, and pushing
             | others to hate?
        
           | m2mdas2 wrote:
           | Defense likes him that is enough I think. They understand
           | Musk's value. I also think that he is having a parallel with
           | Tony Stark persona as a visionary businessman who goes
           | against establishment to achieve his goals.
        
         | eunos wrote:
         | Well the current Premier was a strong backer for Giga Shanghai
         | as well
        
         | jorvi wrote:
         | I hate that we could have $8000[0] EVs in the EU, but
         | Volkswagen+Germany will push the EU to add so many tariffs
         | because they can't match the price-quality ratio. Generally I
         | love the EU, but occasionally.. sigh.
         | 
         | [0] Probably $12500 with transportation, purchase tax etc
        
           | cscurmudgeon wrote:
           | Did EU not learn from funding Russia. It is not a good idea
           | to empower dictatorships.
        
             | jorvi wrote:
             | I sure hope you didn't type this on a mobile device, or any
             | PC made after the 2000s.
        
               | dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
               | You're making his point.
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | His point is overly dogmatic.
               | 
               | With the Russian gas dependence, shutting down supply
               | meant industries would shut down and (with a freak
               | winter) people might be unable to heat their homes.
               | 
               | If Chinese EVs become common in the EU market, it
               | diminishes EU car manufacturing and then China does a rug
               | pull and stops exporting to the EU.. American, Korean and
               | Japanese EV manufacturers will fill the gap in
               | marketshare, perhaps at a slight premium but still well
               | below current EV prices. What horror.
               | 
               | And it isn't like Volkswagen will roll over and die.
               | They'll just face market pressure to innovate and become
               | more efficient.
        
               | cscurmudgeon wrote:
               | Meanwhile, you completely ignore China using EU money to
               | build its offensive capabilities against Taiwan.
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | China must have some magical coffers that they are
               | simultaneously losing $50 billion+ a year on subsidizing
               | Chinese EV makers.. but somehow also earning money on it
               | and spending it on national defense?
               | 
               | I don't like the direction China is headed either, but
               | anyone with even an ounce of pragmaticness realizes that
               | we still live in a world of global trade.
               | 
               | Also, the US is trading with China to the tune of $750
               | 000+ billion a year. So, I guess they should cut off all
               | that trade to stop funding their future adversary.. or
               | perhaps it is not so simple?
        
               | dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
               | Huh? China has something like $4 trillion in reserves
               | plug ongoing taxation, it can and has subsidised EVs and
               | other industries more than that.
               | 
               | The point is that we've made a mistake and we're in a
               | pickle. We're dependent on our adversary and we should be
               | looking to get out of that situation in a way that
               | doesn't disadvantage ourselves further.
               | 
               | Are you just saying there's nothing that can be done?
               | Just looking to change direction is a useful step.
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | > Huh? China has something like $4 trillion in reserves
               | plug ongoing taxation, it can and has subsidised EVs and
               | other industries more than that.
               | 
               | That is not the thing I was giving a counterpoint to
               | though. That was "EU trade is funding aggression against
               | Taiwan" (with the implication that importing cheap EVs
               | would increase the net inflow of capital).
               | 
               | > The point is that we've made a mistake and we're in a
               | pickle. We're dependent on our adversary and we should be
               | looking to get out of that situation in a way that
               | doesn't disadvantage ourselves further.
               | 
               | > Are you just saying there's nothing that can be done?
               | Just looking to change direction is a useful step.
               | 
               | But at least here, we _aren 't_ in a pickle. China has
               | little leverage here, and they can't easily increase that
               | leverage either.
               | 
               | Let me simplify my point: if China wants to massively
               | subsidize the electrification of the EU's car population,
               | why not let them? They won't reach global market
               | dominance, and it both speeds up our electrification and
               | saves our citizens' money. The only one's getting pinched
               | are the shareholders of EU car companies.
               | 
               | I feel similarly about solar panels, even though China
               | _has_ achieved market dominance there. They cannot
               | leverage their position there, because solar panels are
               | not a prohibitively difficult product to set up a supply
               | chain for, and the demand for them is somewhat elastic.
               | It would slow down the closure of fossil power plants and
               | maybe force a few old one 's to reopen, but that's it.
               | With EVs, buyers would just switch over to other brands
               | and part of the global supply would get redirected as EU
               | prices go up.
               | 
               | I worry much more about China's grip on rare metal
               | processing and mid tier chip production. The rare metals
               | go into "everything" hot right now, and everyone is so
               | focused on high-end chip production that they're
               | forgetting how many everyday products run on "low"
               | density chips.
        
               | cscurmudgeon wrote:
               | Subsidies don't mean zero profit. It can even more profit
               | if volume increases and others are driven out of the
               | market.
               | 
               | > Oh yeah, the US is trading with China to the tune of
               | $750 000+ billion a year. So, I guess they should cut off
               | all that trade to stop funding their future adversary..
               | or perhaps it is not so simple.
               | 
               | Again literally just
               | 
               | https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/we-should-improve-society-
               | som...
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | Right right, improving society by _not_ electrifying and
               | instead staying with ICE cars. Get real.
        
               | Epa095 wrote:
               | How is it at all relevant that most of OPs phone is
               | (presumably) made in China?
               | 
               | https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/format:webp/0*R
               | 013...
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | These days, smartphones and PCs are pretty much critical
               | to function in society.
               | 
               | We accept that those are for-the-most part made in China,
               | despite "funding a dictatorship", because we realize that
               | we can't expect someone on median income to pay $3000 for
               | a phone or $5000 for a laptop.
               | 
               | Much as I'd like it to be different, cars are also still
               | critical to function in much of society. We want everyone
               | in EVs ASAP.
               | 
               | Where would one get these good quality cheap EVs, even at
               | some geopolitical cost..
        
               | cscurmudgeon wrote:
               | The way to do that is by funding local companies and
               | increasing density and public transport.
               | 
               | You also made an error. Cars are essential. EVs are not
               | the only type of car.
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | > The way to do that is by funding local companies..
               | 
               | You do not understand the car industry. Giving them
               | _less_ competitive pressure will not increase car quality
               | or lower sales price.
               | 
               | > ..and increasing density..
               | 
               | Increasing density during an already extreme housing
               | crunch? Genius.
               | 
               | > ..and public transport.
               | 
               | I would love to see better public transport, but most
               | voters are not ready to pony up the taxes for a public
               | transit network that has enough fidelity to sufficiently
               | replace cars.
               | 
               | > You also made an error. Cars are essential. EVs are not
               | the only type of car.
               | 
               | Hydrogen is not happening, and staying with ICEs means
               | screwing over the planet.
        
               | cscurmudgeon wrote:
               | Literally https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/we-should-
               | improve-society-som...
        
             | MomoXenosaga wrote:
             | Yes let's hope Trump doesn't win.
        
         | russli1993 wrote:
         | no they don't. For end product sales, China's EV subsidies is
         | the same for all NEVs, Tesla enjoys that too. Chinese
         | provincial governments may provide lumps sum
         | cash/grants/preferential loans/cheaper land for specific
         | projects, factories built in there, and Tesla got that too when
         | it built gigafactory in Shanghai. BWM got preferential land
         | prices and taxes when it build more factories in Liaoning. And
         | these kinds of governmental assistances exist in many
         | countries, including Germany, SK, USA. Another way Chinese
         | government "help" a company is by equity investments. But that
         | is not a blank check and endless funnel of cash. And btw,
         | Chinese government money is also taxpayer money, it's not
         | endless, government is looking for return on whatever benefits
         | in increased revenue in the future, it has to be effective
         | investment. And look at all the uproar when Chinese batteries
         | makers trying to build factories and provide employment in the
         | USA.
         | 
         | So, yes, Chinese government give the same subsidies for Tesla.
         | What does Chinese companies get in the USA? The most
         | discriminatory and certainly illegal rule that is IRA under
         | WTO. IRA subsides are barred legally from giving to companies,
         | not just headquartered in China, but also any Chinese origin
         | entity or any entity in the world that holds 25% more shares,
         | and regardless where the product is made. And not just for end
         | product, any materials, components made by Chinese entities or
         | any entities in the world where Chinese entity holds 25% share
         | regardless where it's made. Does your South Korean anode
         | company board have a Chinese national and Chinese entity
         | invested in your company? You are dead. For that Chinese board
         | member, he/she is forced to resign, for the Chinese investment,
         | is forced to be sold. It's the most discriminatory trade rule
         | ever made. Then there is all the fearmongering, consistent
         | witch hunt against Chinese origin companies and entrepreneurs
         | by the government and congress. It's not even against a company
         | anymore, it's against the entrepreneurs, the founders who got a
         | Chinese name. Anything that has Chinese name in it, you get
         | roasted, shamed, defamed, treated like cockroaches by people in
         | congress. Right now, if you are Chinese person, want work on
         | semiconductors, telecom, batteries, AI, mobile phone apps,
         | internet, biotech, regardless where you are based, US
         | government will defame you, wants everyone in the world to shun
         | you off, to treat you like cockroaches. See what happened to
         | tusimple, Zoom, G42.ai, or so many companies that I can't list
         | here? On a tangent, Shou Chew was in congress and members of
         | congress continued to shame his Singaporean nationality, not
         | even aware Singaporean and Chinese are different. In China,
         | Tesla and Elon Muskc got big publicity and essentially
         | "encourage you to buy" message from the government. What does
         | Chinese entrepreneurs get in the USA? I am using strong
         | language, but this is the truth. No need to suger coat this.
         | 
         | And for Huawei, funny before the USA's witch hunt against
         | Huawei, Chinese telecoms were buying from Ericsson, Nokia,
         | Cisco en mass. And now god forbid we support our own companies
         | when USA, and it coerces other countries to trying to just
         | blatantly kill off Huawei, chop off its head. Huawei may sound
         | like same name to you, but for us its 100K workers and
         | families, who have kids to feed, grandparents to take care of.
         | Then millions of people dependent on Huawei's supply chain,
         | sales networks, service centers. It's one thing if a company
         | doesn't innovate and got out competed in the market. It's
         | totally another when a foreign government attacks the company
         | with the goal of completely chopping its head off. Fair
         | competition is fine, but only when the environment is fair. I
         | am gladly buy an iphone if is better than huawei if they are on
         | level playing field. But right now, I will gladly buy a mate 60
         | pro even if its weaker than iphone. Western media play up all
         | Chinese people are super nationalistic blah blah. It's foreign
         | governments that is attacking our people and families that is
         | making people more nationalistic. US government has sanctioned
         | more than 1000 Chinese entities, trade war, tech war, 10s of
         | millions of people are directly or indirectly affected by US
         | government. There is a joke on Chinese internet now that when
         | US sanctions a Chinese company it's a stamp of approval. By the
         | way, no one has accelerated Chinese domestic semiconductor
         | supply chain faster than US sanctions. No one has promoted
         | Chinese people to buy Chinese products better than foreign
         | governments. Huawei essentially got a martyred brand image
         | after the USA's treatment, the struggle to survive against all
         | odds, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger, the
         | Independence Day story.
        
       | panick21_ wrote:
       | Funny how its always a Tesla killer, rather then a killer of the
       | legacy manufactures. That's the actual story here.
       | 
       | BYD in China more broadly spell doom for GM and friends, far more
       | then Tesla.
        
         | dragontamer wrote:
         | It's Tesla that has a substantial Chinese (and European)
         | footprint where BYD is operating though.
         | 
         | GM/Ford/Stellaris aren't making a push for EVs in China like
         | Tesla is. BYD just doesn't compete with USAs automakers outside
         | of their Chinese footprints. (Maybe European competition since
         | Europe is importing a lot of Chinese EVs in practice right now)
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | > GM/Ford/Stellaris aren't making a push for EVs in China
           | like Tesla is.
           | 
           | China is an incredibly important market for cars, its not
           | about EV or not.
           | 
           | And to just say 'well, see we don't even car about this huge
           | market' isn't really much of a strategy, its just giving up.
           | 
           | My point was not about GM and US companies, it was about
           | legacy EV companies in general. VW has massive problems in
           | China as well. My broad point is that BYD is a problem for
           | everybody.
           | 
           | > BYD just doesn't compete with USAs automakers outside of
           | their Chinese footprints.
           | 
           | But they will. They are currently expanding all over the
           | world. Its a matter of time.
        
             | dragontamer wrote:
             | You think the import tariffs on Chinese cars is going to
             | come down any time soon? Or that American politics would
             | change such that USA would accept a large number of such
             | cars?
             | 
             | If not.... then no. USA pretty much doesn't have to worry
             | about it.
             | 
             | USA can afford higher car prices, and it's a political
             | tradeoff that's really easy to make right now. I'm willing
             | to bet on higher such tariffs if Chinese car prices drop
             | any further.
        
         | fma wrote:
         | You know, GM has twp joint ventures in China, and Wuling
         | especially has popular EVs (behind BYD, and Tesla of course).
         | Below commenter also points out GM isn't aggressive in China...
         | 
         | Maybe should have picked Ford as a better example.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | I was referring to all legacy manufactures. VW is having lots
           | of issues in China.
           | 
           | GM isn't aggressive in China because they know they can't
           | really win.
           | 
           | GM and co attitude being 'who cares about that large market
           | we don't even want to compete' isn't really all that
           | convincing as a strategy.
        
       | mustafa_pasi wrote:
       | How does VC work in China? How did he get his money?
       | 
       | Snooping a bit on Wikipedia, it says that he partnered with his
       | cousin who was some kind of banker.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | For BYD in the 1990s, Family banking.
         | 
         | Specifically within the Hokkien, Cantonese, and Hakka diaspora.
         | 
         | Guangdong+Fujian became a major manufacturing hub because most
         | of the business elite in Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand,
         | Hong Kong, and Phillipines were from the same clans and
         | families in Guangdong and Fujian
         | 
         | Before the 2000s, Manchuria tended to be much richer and
         | industrialized than Guangdong/Fujian because of Russian/Soviet,
         | South Korean, and Japanese FDI along with the fact that it was
         | close to Beijing and was the heartland of the CCP after WW2 so
         | most SOEs were based there.
         | 
         | By the mid-late 2000s, China's financial sector formalized and
         | a IB/PE/VC model similar to that in the US and Israel arose.
        
         | chx wrote:
         | Yeah, well
         | 
         | It is, on paper a private company
         | 
         | But you need to understand this is China. BYD is _extremely_
         | heavily subsidized by the Chinese government. For example, this
         | 2016 article
         | https://www.forbes.com/sites/mclifford/2016/07/26/with-a-lit...
         | mentions
         | 
         | > In the five years ending December 31, 2015, the company
         | reported receiving a total of 2.9 billion yuan ($435 million)
         | in government support.
         | 
         | and that's just the reported support, there are tricks the
         | government can play with for example labor costs, transferring
         | R&D and so forth.
        
       | tomohawk wrote:
       | It's hard to compete against a state backed enterprise,
       | especially when the backing includes a massive industrial
       | espionage operation that keeps tabs on all of your competitors.
        
       | dbcooper wrote:
       | BYD's cars gave crappy suspension. Compared to a BMW on the
       | highway...
        
       | Tiktaalik wrote:
       | They have their own campus monorail that is absolutely wild lol.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | Monorail! LA may be getting a BYD monorail.[1]
         | 
         | [1] https://laskyrailexpress.com/
        
       | christkv wrote:
       | What BYD seems to be doing in spain is the following. cost wise
       | they are no cheaper than the other cars. What they do is front
       | you the government subsidies for evs so the car is cheaper. What
       | happens if you don't qualify for it in the years it takes to
       | process the subsidy. Who knows? Do they write it off or does the
       | ccp cover it as a defacto state subsidy from China?
        
       | misiti3780 wrote:
       | https://archive.is/pVDKq
        
       | mtrovo wrote:
       | It's really hard to find any constructive discussion around
       | Chinese companies here.
       | 
       | Anybody willing to share facts about subsidies, state control or
       | anything that would justify believing that BYD success here is
       | not justified?
       | 
       | For me the whole story of vertical integration of a battery
       | manufacturer company that decided to make EV cars makes a lot of
       | sense.
        
         | late2part wrote:
         | We have always been at war with Oceania.
        
         | h0l0cube wrote:
         | Another narrative that's missing is 'Discretionary government
         | intervention can be good for the market actually', and if the
         | Chinese administration is making big bets on an emerging high
         | value market (batteries and EVs), maybe the traditionally
         | laissez-faire US should take note. That does rely on the notion
         | that China _is_ actively subsidizing and enabling BYD more than
         | the US is for Tesla, and leaving aside their efforts on battery
         | R &D, vertical integration, leveraging lower labor costs etc.
         | as you say
        
       | m2mdas2 wrote:
       | I didn't know much about BYD till the end of the last year.
       | Looked around for more information and found this great video[0].
       | It's a fascinating story actually.
       | 
       | So in west clean energy push is actually a moral obligation for
       | reducing the effects of climate change. Whereas for China it is
       | the main way for future growth, to become less dependent on oil
       | supply chain which it does not control. Also they know that they
       | can't compete in ICE vehicles with the established companies. So
       | they started working on EV long before Elon Musk popularized EV
       | in West.
       | 
       | The subsidized whole EV industry. As a result hundreds of EV
       | companies were created seeing the opportunities. As a result
       | nationwide EV infrastructure was built. Five years ago China did
       | the most unconventional thing. They invited Tesla to build the
       | factories and at a same time removed most subsidies given to
       | local EV companies. So Tesla and local companies were having same
       | equal footing.
       | 
       | It resulted in a pure form of free market competition. It became
       | a bloodbath, a king of the hill type survival game where Tesla
       | sat at top of the hill. As a result of competition innovation,
       | optimization happened. Most of the local EV companies died.
       | Remaining became almost the same level as Tesla and BYD became
       | the new king of the hill (at least in China).
       | 
       | The unconventional decision by China may look foreign to western
       | audience but it actually resonates to us who are raised by Asian
       | families. So if you are a child in an asian households parents
       | most of the time talks about a 'kid next door' who is good at
       | study. The parents frequently tells their child to become as good
       | or better than the 'kid next door',saying that we will give you
       | as good environment within our reach to achieve it. It gives an
       | implicit pressure on the child to become better. Obviously not
       | all become as good as the kid next door but some prevails.
       | 
       | In the Chinese EV market case Tesla was that 'kid next door'.
       | 
       | Edit: Sorry wrong video. Trying to find the video.
       | 
       | Edit2: found the video
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-NcTawauXA . Skip to the 9
       | minute.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ttu55nEtC6o
        
       | 29athrowaway wrote:
       | Why was so much money poured into BYD and nobody cared about
       | designing a proper logo?
        
       | simonstrong wrote:
       | BYD will next buy lithium mines they will manage the whole supply
       | chain. By producing cars in Europe Africa South America they by
       | pass import laws. Ford and GM signed supply deals with BYD
       | technology a day ago. it's just too late to start to research and
       | develop your own Battery many manufacturers will adapt BYD
       | batters otherwise you will miss out of a huge market share. ESG
       | funds and offset carbon credits just going to keep making BYD
       | stronger and stronger.
        
       | bayindirh wrote:
       | > "Frankly, I think if there are not trade barriers established,
       | they will pretty much demolish most other companies in the
       | world," he (Musk) said.
       | 
       | I love this viewpoint. If a country takes a similar approach
       | against the US, same people will go berserk about equality and
       | cry foul. However, when they feel threatened, they can call for
       | the very thing they are against.
        
       | pqdbr wrote:
       | As someone who just took delivery of a BYD Song Plus, I can say
       | I'd be very, very worried if I was BMW's CEO.
       | 
       | And yes, I've owned 5 BMWs before this new BYD.
        
       | comechao wrote:
       | They announced three factories in Brazil. However, cars in Brazil
       | are expensive due to many factors, including taxes and tariffs
       | (see the price of an iPhone in Brazil and try not to be
       | horrified).
        
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