[HN Gopher] Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adop...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat
       pumps
        
       Author : LinuxBender
       Score  : 238 points
       Date   : 2024-02-09 15:11 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wired.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wired.com)
        
       | vundercind wrote:
       | > Death is coming for the old-school gas furnace--and its killer
       | is the humble heat pump.
       | 
       | Uh, you still need a furnace (though it could be electric) if you
       | live somewhere that ever _really_ gets cold, right?
       | 
       | [edit] I mean, seeing it presented as a furnace replacement is
       | weird to me. I've always seen it sold as an air conditioner
       | replacement that also happens to heat (with weird characteristics
       | that often confuse people--they'll think their heat is broken,
       | because the air coming out is only _kinda_ warm, not very-warm
       | like furnace heat) when it's not _really_ cold out.
        
         | spiderice wrote:
         | Yes. I live in Utah and have a heat pump and gas furnace. I am
         | told the heat pump is really efficient at medium-cold
         | temperatures, but not so much on really cold days.
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | I believe heatpump technology has improved over time. Also,
           | "less efficient but still functional" is an adequate option
           | for really cold days.
        
             | Loughla wrote:
             | Less efficient but still functional means my home was 50
             | degree inside instead of 67 when it was -1 for two weeks
             | here.
             | 
             | On older homes, with much worse insulation, this would
             | immediately be a problem.
             | 
             | Heat pumps are great, but they absolutely need some kind of
             | emergency heat back up.
        
               | loeg wrote:
               | > Less efficient but still functional means my home was
               | 50 degree inside instead of 67 when it was -1 for two
               | weeks here.
               | 
               | No, that's just not functional. "Less efficient" means
               | consuming more joules of electricity but still providing
               | the required function.
               | 
               | > Heat pumps are great, but they absolutely need some
               | kind of emergency heat back up.
               | 
               | They include it. You were sold an inadequate pump for
               | your situation.
        
         | adastra22 wrote:
         | Heat pumps are still more efficient, but you'd need damn good
         | insulation (or a really big heat pump) in super cold weather.
         | Furnaces scale-up pretty well on the other hand.
         | 
         | If your locale gets life threateningly cold though, I'd feel
         | more comfortable with a furnace because of the fewer moving
         | parts. Burn gas, get heat, dead simple.
        
           | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
           | Funny enough in the short term I've lived in my house, I
           | already had a winter where the furnace quit.
           | 
           | It's a high-efficiency one with a control board (Nobody can
           | convince me FCS isn't Fire Control System) and a separate
           | draft motor.
           | 
           | One of the vacuum sensors went out and the furnace couldn't
           | prove it was safe to run, so it would turn on the draft
           | motor, suspect a clog, and then shut it back off.
           | 
           | An easy fix but not as simple as lighting a Bunsen burner.
           | And I haven't seen the electrical cord for it, I'm not sure
           | how I would hook it to a generator if I lost power. The water
           | heater oddly enough is battery-powered, so I guess I could
           | just fill the tub with hot water.
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | Heatpumps have resistance heating backup for the exceptional
         | periods when it is too cold to make use of the compression
         | system. Most people live somewhere a heatpump would work well.
        
           | vundercind wrote:
           | Oh, I've not see that kind, only the sort where the "e heat"
           | feature on the thermostat is tied to a separate furnace.
        
           | heironimus wrote:
           | Problem is, if everyone has resistance backup and it gets
           | really cold, I doubt if the grid could keep up.
        
           | giantg2 wrote:
           | This also assumes a resilient grid, which may not be the case
           | for large areas of the rural US.
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Cutting edge heat pumps can now work down into the sub zero (F)
         | temperatures. Manufacturers have really been pushing hard on
         | this in recent years. But these units still are more expensive
         | than your run of the mill ones.
        
         | nitsuaeekcm wrote:
         | The best mental model for a heat pump is that they can maintain
         | a certain temperature differential, say 80F. If it gets to be
         | 0F outside and you want it to be 70? You don't need to switch
         | to a fully separate heating system, you just need to warm up
         | either the incoming or outgoing air an additional 10 degrees
         | via a small resistance heater. The super wide range heat pump
         | systems will do that automatically, and the principle really
         | applies to any differential you could want.
        
           | VBprogrammer wrote:
           | The wide range ones are basically two heat pumps back to back
           | using different working fluids. They should only be used in
           | applications where they are really required as there are
           | obviously impacts to the COP.
        
           | JadeNB wrote:
           | > The best mental model for a heat pump is that they can
           | maintain a certain temperature differential, say 80F. If it
           | gets to be 0F outside and you want it to be 70? You don't
           | need to switch to a fully separate heating system, you just
           | need to warm up either the incoming or outgoing air an
           | additional 10 degrees via a small resistance heater.
           | 
           | Are your 70 and 80 switched? What you describe doesn't sound
           | like it needs any addition.
        
         | kj4ips wrote:
         | I have a pair of heat pumps in a dual zone setup, each of them
         | has a backup electric furnace as part of its indoor air
         | handler. Newer ones can keep running without that even into
         | quite cold areas.
         | 
         | The thermostat just sees the resistive heaters as another
         | phase, so I have three phases, and if it doesn't see a temp
         | rise within a certain time of calling for phase 1/2, then it
         | goes to phase 3. Mine also has support for an external
         | temperature probe, that can skip 1/2 if it is already too cold.
         | 
         | I also have other ways to make heat if I have a prolonged
         | electrical outage, but outside of maintenance, I've not used
         | that.
        
         | loudmax wrote:
         | What's _really_ cold? There are heat pumps that are advertised
         | as working at -15F. On the days when it gets that cold, your
         | heat pump will need to switch to electric heat. So on those
         | days, your heat pump is no better than an electric furnace. On
         | all other days that the heater is running, the heat pump is a
         | far more efficient option.
        
         | epiccoleman wrote:
         | From my limited experience, I'd say yes - you still need a
         | furnace.
         | 
         | I converted my garage into my office by adding a mini split
         | AC/heat pump. The garage walls, door, and attic are insulated -
         | but it's still a garage, which means that it's not nearly as
         | well insulated as a regular room in a house.
         | 
         | The unit is 18k BTUs, which is quite oversized for the size of
         | the garage. I made this choice because the heat pump BTUs are
         | significantly less than cooling BTUs. This is definitely
         | obvious, experientally - the unit can make my garage
         | uncomfortably cold even in the peak of summer.
         | 
         | But even though this unit is supposedly rated for operation in
         | temps down to about -20F, when winter gets really cold, it
         | struggles to keep the space warm. Once the temps are below
         | about 20F or so, I usually add a space heater to the mix,
         | which, combined with warm clothes, makes working out here at
         | least tolerable.
        
         | rootbear wrote:
         | I live in Maryland and the first townhouse I owned, in the late
         | 80s to early 90s, had a heat pump. It included an auxiliary
         | electric heater for days that it got really cold. I don't
         | remember it coming on all that often. (There was a light on the
         | thermostat to indicate when it was on.) My current townhouse
         | has a gas furnace. I plan to move soon into a single level
         | home, more appropriate for an old greybeard, and I'll have to
         | evaluate then if I want to switch to a heat pump, if the house
         | doesn't have one already.
        
         | rimunroe wrote:
         | Note: this is only true for air-source heat pumps. Ground
         | source-heat pumps aren't affected by ambient air temperature,
         | but they're also much more expensive and require suitable
         | ground. Also, I hear air-source heat pumps have made
         | significant advances lately in how well they handle sub -15
         | degC temperatures.
        
         | mikeyouse wrote:
         | > _Uh, you still need a furnace (though it could be electric)
         | if you live somewhere that ever really gets cold, right?_
         | 
         | For now - and only in part of the country. Most of the newest
         | models can output 100% of their rating down to something like
         | -5oF -- they're easy enough to oversize as well, so if your 99%
         | heating load is e.g. 48,000BTU, a 60,000BTU heat pump that's
         | only outputting 80% of rated BTUs due to the extreme cold can
         | still cover the full design load.
         | 
         | Here's the spec sheet for the newer Mitsubishi hyper heat
         | models - 87o output at -4oF and 76% output at -13oF -- very few
         | places in the states ever get that cold:
         | https://static.appliancesconnection.com/attachments/D5bf5709...
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | I like the redundancy of natural gas. So far, in less than 40
           | years, I have been kept warm for multiple days on 3 separate
           | occasions by having access to gas while the electricity did
           | not work. Also, I was able to keep cooking.
           | 
           | One of the states in the article is Oregon too, where I have
           | family that just a few weeks ago lost electricity for 4 days,
           | but were able to use an electric generator to keep the air
           | handler going and gas to heat the the house and cook.
           | 
           | I fear heat pump only heat will fail exactly when I most need
           | it not to.
        
             | vundercind wrote:
             | Yeah if my heat were 100% electric I'd have to install a
             | wood heating-stove to feel like I wasn't being
             | irresponsible. Or maybe get a couple portable kerosene
             | heaters.
        
               | VBprogrammer wrote:
               | I think a sensible option, if you live in a place where
               | electrical grids goes out for a couple of days fairly
               | routinely, would be a transfer switch and a generator. If
               | sized well enough you could use it to run a resistance
               | heater (the cheap portable type) to keep one or two rooms
               | warm in an extreme scenario.
        
               | sudden_dystopia wrote:
               | Pipes freeze and burst, whole house has to stay warm.
               | It's not just about comfort or safety.
        
               | nsguy wrote:
               | If you warm up a few rooms to comfortable then it's hard
               | to imagine the rest of the house being at freezing
               | temperature. It's going to be some sort of gradient. But
               | sure, this is a concern/consideration.
        
             | dhosek wrote:
             | My ex-wife had a two-day power outage last month (it was
             | only a few hours at my apartment) during a cold snap. She
             | has gas heat, but the problem is that the heat gets
             | circulated by fans1 which are powered by-- _electricity_.
             | 
             | She had to get a hotel room for the night because she
             | wasn't comfortable sleeping with the gas fireplace on.
             | 
             | [?]
             | 
             | 1. I would guess that thermostats also powered by
             | electricity not working would add to the complication.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Of course, but gas utility supply means a much smaller
               | generator is needed just to operate the fans and
               | thermostat and much less on-hand fuel is needed to
               | operate the generator.
               | 
               | Natural gas is just a very convenient and very dense
               | source of energy when you need it most.
        
               | dhosek wrote:
               | In the entirety of my life, most of which has been in the
               | Chicago area, I have never seen a home with a generator
               | for the fans and thermostat of a home. For that matter,
               | the only home generator I ever saw was one my grandfather
               | bought which he only used once to see if it worked.
        
           | vundercind wrote:
           | I'd say -15degF or lower is something you need to design for
           | at least into the light-blue area on this map:
           | 
           | http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tdK_AMaZ9pg/Vb51WrvPDhI/AAAAAAAAD5.
           | ..
           | 
           | Which is quite a lot of the country.
           | 
           | Light blue is a _typical_ Winter low point in the -10degF to
           | 0degF, which means you _will_ see -15degF or lower often
           | enough to worry about it.
        
             | hardcopy wrote:
             | Meh. I live in Wisconsin. It's fine.
             | 
             | > Our modeling finds that even if Focus incentivizes
             | 800,000 heat pumps with electric resistance backup (10
             | times the number of heat pumps as it did furnaces in the
             | past four years), the state will still be able to meet its
             | electricity demand with currently operating power plants,
             | even on the coldest days. Depending on the efficiency of
             | the heat pump, in-state winter generation capacity would
             | still exceed peak demand by 1,400-4,300 MW on the coldest
             | day.
             | 
             | https://rmi.org/three-questions-wisconsinites-are-asking-
             | abo...
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | Fortunately, they have county-by-county data (and hourly
             | data if you so desire) that spells out the design criteria
             | for heating systems;
             | 
             | https://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/bldrs_lenders_raters
             | /...
             | 
             | Though heat pumps are unique in that they produce less heat
             | as the colder it gets - A few hours of -15o every few years
             | shouldn't be the primary consideration in spec'ing a system
             | that still produces 75% of its heat in that worse case.
             | 
             | I live in that blue area and ran through all of the math
             | and considerations recently - I pulled the hourly
             | temperature data for 6 years. Of the 94,000 data points in
             | that period, a total of 26 hours were below -5o:
             | https://imgur.com/a/P7A3kan
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | The dataset is typical winter low for 1984-2014. Earth is
             | warming thanks to climate change, and the lowest lows have
             | notably warmed. See, e.g., https://xkcd.com/1321/. In my 12
             | winters of living in the light blue zone, I think I've
             | spent like a grand total of 36 hours or so in sub-0degF
             | temperatures, and that was pretty much the one period
             | mentioned in the xkcd comic.
        
           | dkasper wrote:
           | i think this explains the oversizing. 76% seems pretty good,
           | but a lot of places do get to negative temperatures once in a
           | while, maybe once every year or two, and that's when you
           | _really_ want the heat to work.
        
           | semiquaver wrote:
           | We have a set of those hyper heat mini splits to supplement a
           | hydronic system which wasn't expanded to several additions.
           | They're generally great but during the Midwest's recent
           | extremely cold snap down to a week or two of negative
           | temperatures they were pretty disappointing and could not
           | keep up. We ended up having to close off a few parts of the
           | house to keep the temperature reasonable in the rest. I think
           | that trusting heat to a heat pump system is not yet feasible
           | in much of the Midwest and northeast.
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | Yeah, we're remodeling right now - our design specs say
             | heat pumps should be able to cover 100% of our load but we
             | also have a few rarely used gas fireplaces and some space
             | heaters in case that doesn't work out. Though like someone
             | else mentioned, the bigger change will be reacting to power
             | outages. A small camping generator can provide enough
             | energy for to keep a gas furnace blower running whereas you
             | need a very large generator to operate the heat pump.
        
           | o11c wrote:
           | Temperature rating is irrelevant if the outdoor unit turns
           | into a solid block of ice before it gets that low.
           | 
           | Oddly enough, it tends to snow when it's cold. Even rain can
           | a problem since the nature of a heap pump means the unit is
           | cooler than the surroundings.
           | 
           | So often for a few nights of the year, the alleged "heat
           | pump" actually just falls back to electric heating.
        
             | nsguy wrote:
             | The outdoor unit goes through heating cycles though to
             | prevent that. I'm in Vancouver, BC, where it doesn't get
             | _that_ cold but my unit had no problem when it was snowing
             | and -15C or so outside. It did have to work pretty hard
             | though. We don 't have electrical heating backup for the
             | heat pump but we do have a gas fireplace as backup (so I
             | _know_ the heat coming from the vents is 100% heat pump,
             | not an electric heater in line).
        
         | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
         | Technology Connections seems pretty happy with his. I think he
         | lives in Chicago, admittedly not the coldest place, but it does
         | snow every winter in that region.
         | 
         | He said 2.9 coefficient of efficiency average over a heating
         | season for him - https://youtu.be/7J52mDjZzto?t=1522
        
         | orwin wrote:
         | Depends on the heat pump, and the quality of your house.
         | Hopefully houses in northern US states are of better quality
         | than houses in California or West Virginia/South Ohio, so a
         | furnface might not be needed.
         | 
         | Because for the scandinavians reading the thread and with the
         | "It works in my country", US house build quality, in my
         | experience, is even worse than UK houses build quality (and
         | that's a pretty low bar).
        
         | carapace wrote:
         | No, you need better insulation.
         | 
         | (And maybe a rocket stove combined with a heat storage
         | hypocaust.)
         | 
         | https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2017/03/heat-storage-hypoc...
        
       | herpdyderp wrote:
       | The states listed are:                 - California       -
       | Colorado       - Maine       - Maryland       - Massachusetts
       | - New Jersey       - New York       - Oregon       - Rhode Island
        
         | nostrademons wrote:
         | So the usual blue-state suspects, minus Washington and a bunch
         | of the New England states.
        
           | virtue3 wrote:
           | places where heat pumps are not going to work well when it
           | drops to freezing / below freezing.
        
             | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
             | Our Diakin was working at -15F but Po Lil PumpPump was
             | struggling.
             | 
             | I had to have floorboard heat on for that week. So, it does
             | work (not if you buy a cheaper unit not made for your
             | climate) but it works a lot better above freezing.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Several red states (the TVA) have had heat pumps as normal
           | for decades. Now heat pumps work better and so they should
           | extend to the other states.
        
         | 082349872349872 wrote:
         | representing ~1/3 of 2022 GDP
         | 
         | (via
         | https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/stgdppi3q23....
         | )
        
           | jtbayly wrote:
           | I don't see how the GDP has anything to do with this.
           | 
           | What percent of the population those states make up might be
           | somewhat interesting at least.
           | 
           | But even then, 90% of new installations requires us to know
           | what percent of installations those states make up, and
           | population isn't necessarily (but could be) a good corollary
           | for that.
        
         | subsubzero wrote:
         | Interestingly enough, That list of states besides Colorado and
         | Maine all were the biggest losers of population in 2023,
         | meaning people are leaving these states.                 -
         | California -0.9       - Maryland -0.5       - Massachusetts
         | -0.6       - New Jersey -0.5       - New York -1.1       -
         | Oregon -0.1       - Rhode Island -0.3
        
           | melling wrote:
           | 60 million people live in California and NY.
           | 
           | 9 million in NJ
           | 
           | 4.2 million in Oregon
           | 
           | 7 million in Massachusetts
           | 
           | 6 million in Maryland
           | 
           | 1 million in Rhode Island
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | They are also rich states that are pricing out people rather
           | than building housing.
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | Largely because that's the list of places where housing is
           | super expensive:                 https://en.wikipedia.org/wik
           | i/List_of_U.S._states_by_median_home_price            #2
           | California    $554K       #3 Massachusetts $422K       #5
           | Colorado.     $397K       #6 Oregon        $361K       #8 New
           | Jersey    $335K       #9 New York      $322K       #10
           | Maryland     $308K       #13 Rhode Island $300K       #25
           | Maine        $242K
           | 
           | And where income is highest:                 https://en.wikip
           | edia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_income
           | #1  Maryland      $90K       #2  Massachusetts $89K       #3
           | New Jersey    $89K       #5  California    $85K       #9
           | Colorado      $82K       #14 New York      $74K       #15
           | Rhode Island  $74K       #18 Oregon        $71K       #32
           | Maine         $64K
           | 
           | People are moving out because it's desirable to live there
           | and hence there's a lot of competition for housing. If you're
           | _not_ one of the top earners in the state, you can increase
           | your _relative_ standard of living by moving somewhere where
           | it 's cheaper.
        
             | hexis wrote:
             | "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded"
        
           | bagels wrote:
           | What are the units?
        
         | Detrytus wrote:
         | Why would anyone need a heat pump in California, given the
         | climate there? I can understand north-eastern states, but not
         | this. Is it a case of mindlessly jumping on "progressive"
         | bandwagon?
         | 
         | EDIT: I actually spent one winter in San Diego, and apartments
         | there don't even have any heating installed (except occasional
         | fireplace in the living room). I know that more to the north it
         | might get worse, but by how much?
        
           | jtbayly wrote:
           | You still need heat in California, one way or another,
           | especially further north. What would you suggest as a method
           | of heating in CA?
        
           | BorgHunter wrote:
           | Heat pumps are much more common in warm areas than cold ones,
           | because the difference between an A/C and a heat pump is
           | really just the ability to reverse the refrigerant flow, and
           | they're very efficient at heating in mildly cold weather. I
           | grew up in Florida, and pretty much every house there had a
           | heat pump even thirty years ago, with electric resistive
           | heating that kicks in when ambient temperatures drop below
           | 40F or so. Where heat pumps don't work so well is when
           | ambient temperatures are very cold, which is why adoption in
           | northern states has been much slower.
           | 
           | EDIT: My grandparents' house had a thermostat that looked
           | like this:
           | https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/uqsAAOSwTVlbyNN9/s-l1200.jpg
           | They would call very cold (for Florida) weather "blue light
           | weather", because the blue "aux heat" light would turn on on
           | their thermostat, indicating that the system had switched
           | from the heat pump to the resistive heat strips.
        
             | Detrytus wrote:
             | My sister just got a heat pump installed in her new house
             | in Poland, where temperatures occasionally drop to 0
             | Fahrenheit. I wouldn't say they only work in "mildly cold
             | weather" - as per new EU policy heat pumps will be one of
             | the few legal heat sources, even in countries such as
             | Sweden.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | I consider a winter where the coldest it gets is 0F a
               | mild winter. The important thing isn't average or normal
               | it is the worst case. I've personally seen -25F here in
               | the last 10 years - it was only one time and lasted about
               | a week, but that means the HVAC system needs to work down
               | to at least -25F just in case.
               | 
               | I don't know what the climate is like in Poland. Maybe 0F
               | is as cold as you ever get and you are okay. Maybe your
               | system will work to -20F even though you haven't tested
               | it. But your might have a system like mine that while it
               | can deliver heat at 0F, it is sized such that below 30F
               | it can't deliver enough heat (I have the backup system
               | for those colder days)
        
           | mperham wrote:
           | Because even California dips below 68F and so your house gets
           | cold.
        
           | blackguardx wrote:
           | Heat pumps make lots of sense in California. It gets hot
           | enough to want air conditioning and still gets cold enough to
           | need heat in much of California. California has many types of
           | climates. Even in the desert areas like near Joshua Tree, you
           | will still need heat in the winter. It snows there.
        
           | aidenn0 wrote:
           | I live in one of the mildest parts of California and I still
           | have a gas furnace (no AC though). Heat pump actually makes
           | _more_ sense given that the winters rarely dip below
           | freezing, so heat pumps can work in a fairly high COP range.
        
           | dhosek wrote:
           | I used to own a house in Claremont, California (east edge of
           | L.A. County). It had a furnace that I never used until one
           | winter it got super cold (under freezing as I recall) and I
           | discovered that the pilot light for the furnace was broken
           | and had to call out the gas company1 to fix it and because
           | everyone else was having similar issues it took two days for
           | them to come and fix my furnace. I grew up in Chicago and was
           | never so cold as that.
           | 
           | [?]
           | 
           | 1. They fixed minor furnace issues like this for free.
        
           | callalex wrote:
           | Everything was built in the 40's-60's and the average amount
           | of insulation is 0. I live in the mildest part of CA, the San
           | Francisco Bay Area. Today the overnight lows were in the mid
           | 30's and the high will be about 50. Without heating my indoor
           | temperature would be around 50 which I find unacceptable.
           | 
           | I'm not sure what your bogeyman "progressive" bandwagon has
           | to do with not wanting to live in 50deg living spaces?
        
           | ajross wrote:
           | For the same reason people in California install heat and air
           | conditioning? Heat pumps aren't a new product market, they're
           | a more efficient variant of products the market already buys.
        
           | crftr wrote:
           | I live in San Diego and energy prices are relatively
           | expensive. We installed solar two years ago and routinely
           | overproduce 3+ MWh.
           | 
           | Now, with a heat pump, the wife and kids can set the
           | thermostat for their comfort and I am less anxious about the
           | monthly bill. The freedom was worth it, for us.
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | Ever wonder why it's called a "heat pump" rather than a
           | heater? It's because they work in both directions, and that
           | means that you can have the system which keeps you cool in
           | the summer also keep you warm in the winter rather than
           | having a separate system. This is especially nice because if
           | you don't use a heater much, you don't know that it'll work
           | when you need it: where I lived in San Diego, the condo
           | complex had radiant heat in the floor in every unit but once
           | in a decade a cold snap meant people really needed it ... and
           | some of my neighbors learned theirs no longer worked.
           | 
           | The efficiency wins from a better quality system are nice,
           | too. I live on the east coast now and went all electric a few
           | years back. Our energy costs in the winter went up modestly -
           | not much because heat pumps are great on all of the not
           | incredibly cold winter days we get in the mid-Atlantic - but
           | the savings in the summer versus the cheap AC the previous
           | owner had purchased were substantial. The savings up front
           | for a less efficient unit get eaten up pretty quickly if you
           | use it regularly.
        
       | avery17 wrote:
       | Tried to get one in NJ and no one wanted to install one. Everyone
       | we got a quote from tried really hard to talk us out of it. We
       | ended up going with gas cause it was cheaper but I'm not happy
       | about it. Gas is just the new oil, once everyone is hooked
       | they'll jack up prices like they did with oil.
        
       | danans wrote:
       | A big issue right now is the oversizing of heat pumps by HVAC
       | contractors who are used to sizing gas furnaces using very simple
       | btu/hr/sqft calculations.
       | 
       | A contractor should do some kind of heating need analysis, at the
       | least by studying old utility bills, and ideally by doing a
       | Manual J heat loss calculation for the house. But almost none of
       | them do that.
       | 
       | There are some startups attempting to handle these design steps
       | as a service, but the construction industry is slow to adopt new
       | technology.
        
         | jacobolus wrote:
         | Can you explain why this is a big issue?
        
           | zbrozek wrote:
           | The simplest devices are on or off. If they are grossly
           | oversized they cycle a lot and make homes less comfortable by
           | pushing a huge volume of hot or cold air briefly.
           | 
           | Variable speed compressors are better, but blowers may not
           | also be variable speed. So you'll get better efficiency but
           | may still suffer a feeling of draftiness.
           | 
           | A properly sized variable speed unit will operate within some
           | optimal band of efficiency and constantly output nearly the
           | minimum necessary air volume to achieve the target
           | temperature.
        
           | danans wrote:
           | Higher up front equipment costs , discomfort, potential
           | humidity issues, higher energy costs, shortened equipment
           | life, increased noise.
        
           | supertrope wrote:
           | Combustion furnaces deliver very hot air so they can cycle on
           | once in a while and then turn off. Heat pumps deliver warm
           | not hot air so they have to run longer cycles. The slower
           | rise in room temperature can even mean that it makes more
           | sense to set a constant temperature on your thermostat
           | instead of letting the temperature fall when you're away
           | during the day (the conventional logic to save energy).
        
           | moribvndvs wrote:
           | I've had one for three years. While I generally love it, it
           | cools too fast, which means it sucks at removing humidity,
           | actually increases it a little. The installer over-
           | provisioned.
        
             | Tarrosion wrote:
             | I've heard this before -- that oversized cooling units
             | (whether standalone AC or part of a heat pump) mean muggy
             | interiors in the humid seasons. But...why? I'd think that a
             | fixed amount of air compressed in the compressor means a
             | fixed amount of condensation runoff from the unit, and it
             | wouldn't matter much whether it's a big unit running
             | occasionally or a small unit running frequently. Why is
             | that wrong?
        
               | lbotos wrote:
               | I don't think it's about duty cycle -- it's seriously
               | about speed of temp change and I _think_ dew point.
               | 
               | But yes, I have a heat pump and in NYC Summer I cannot
               | run it on anything but low otherwise it _increases_ the
               | humidity. It took me a few weeks of looking at the temp
               | humidity graphs to understand that point.
        
               | BenjiWiebe wrote:
               | As it was explained to me, it _is_ about duty cycle. The
               | condensation doesn 't instantly accumulate enough to make
               | droplets and run all the way down the drain, so if the
               | compressor only runs briefly the condensation is still on
               | the fins and evaporates again. You need to keep the
               | compressor going long enough that you actually have water
               | running down the drain, instead of condensing/evaporating
               | cyclically.
        
               | throwup238 wrote:
               | It's not a fixed amount of condensation because the air
               | around the AC only has so much humidity. It quickly
               | condenses just a little bit of water and then shuts off
               | before the humidity in the rest of the house can
               | redistribute to replace the now dry air. By running for
               | longer it allows the water in the rest of the house to
               | actually make it to the compressor.
        
               | danans wrote:
               | > I'd think that a fixed amount of air compressed in the
               | compressor means a fixed amount of condensation runoff
               | from the unit
               | 
               | It's not compressing air (like in a car tire). It's
               | compressing a refrigerant. That refrigerant goes through
               | phase changes (liquid to gas).
               | 
               | One major issue is that for most ACs, the compressor is
               | cycled on and off according to the target temperature
               | (via a thermostat, usually at a single location), not
               | humidity. That means humidity can rise without the AC
               | kicking on to bring it down. Remember in most typical
               | houses, temperature and humidity are not very uniformly
               | distributed.
               | 
               | Furthermore, if the humidity rises high enough before the
               | AC kicks on, and then the AC kicks on at high power, you
               | can get sudden localized cooling and then condensation of
               | humidity to liquid water inside the building, which leads
               | to other problems, especially if it happens behind the
               | walls.
        
               | throw0101c wrote:
               | It takes time for the humidity to be removed out of the
               | air: a 'particular' cubic foot (metre) of air that passes
               | over the coils can be cooled quite quickly, but won't be
               | dehumidified as quickly.
               | 
               | So when the unit runs it can drop the temperature by the
               | necessary (e.g.) 5F (2C), but it may only drop the
               | humidity by 5%, when it needs to drop by (say) 10%. So a
               | 'too-short' run-time can adequately cool the air, but not
               | necessarily remove moisture.
               | 
               | It's also easier to generate 'excess' humidity by
               | bathing/shower than it is to generate excess heat
               | (cooking could generate both). So the humidity can creep
               | up in value while the temperature stays more steady.
        
               | randcraw wrote:
               | The volume of air that passes through the heat pump must
               | be cooled (or warmed) at the same rate as it is
               | dehumidified, unless humidity control can be done
               | independent of the pump. If you oversize the pump, the
               | house is cooled faster than it is dehumidified, and the
               | air reaches the desired temp before it reaches the
               | desired humidity, and the compressor turns off while the
               | air is still humid.
               | 
               | It's possible to independently add humidity when heating
               | -- using a mist gun -- but not to remove it during
               | cooling. However, if the heat pump has a "dry mode" it
               | can dehumidify without also cooling by switching back and
               | forth between heat and cool mode. If not, to dry the air
               | further, it must cool it further.
        
             | mypalmike wrote:
             | Would a central dehumidifier help solve that?
        
               | danans wrote:
               | Yes. In some very humid climates like the Southeast US, a
               | central dehumidifier might be necessary (although they
               | are not yet common in those climates). But in northern
               | climates which tend to be drier, a right-sized AC or heat
               | pump is all you need.
        
             | HumblyTossed wrote:
             | Does your thermostat allow you to "over cool" in order to
             | get the humidity down to a comfortable level?
        
         | Mountain_Skies wrote:
         | Other than higher cost for the heat pump unit, are there any
         | other issues with having one that's oversized for heating? My
         | understanding is that for cooling, having one that is oversized
         | can be a problem because of humidity issues, which also makes
         | me wonder what can be done if a space has an imbalance between
         | the size needed for cooling versus what it needs for heating.
        
           | danans wrote:
           | > Other than higher cost for the heat pump unit, are there
           | any other issues with having one that's oversized for
           | heating?
           | 
           | - Short cycling leading to lower equipment life (also true
           | for gas furnaces, although heat pumps have more moving parts)
           | 
           | - Greater discomfort as the house heats up rapidly then cools
           | down rapidly (especially if it has a leaky building
           | envelope).
           | 
           | - Higher peak electric loads, possibly during hours of high
           | electricity prices, leading to higher electricity costs.
           | 
           | > My understanding is that for cooling, having one that is
           | oversized can be a problem because of humidity issues,
           | 
           | Yes, because moisture will build up when it isn't running.
           | 
           | > makes me wonder what can be done if a space has an
           | imbalance between the size needed for cooling versus what it
           | needs for heating.
           | 
           | Many heat pumps have different output ratings for heating and
           | cooling modes to deal with this. Often however, this has as
           | much to do with the distribution of the heated/cooled air and
           | placement of supply registers, which is often an afterthought
           | when the system is purposely oversized (which is presumed to
           | make up for lack of air distribution design).
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | No there is not IF the heat pump is variable speed/flow. Many
           | modern ones are, but most old ones are not, and it is really
           | hard to tell if a new one is. In fact you want one oversized
           | as if it is the correct size for cooling it cannot make
           | enough heat when it is cold (it can make heat, just not
           | enough)
           | 
           | If you get a normal single speed heat pump see the other
           | reply - there are significant downsides.
        
         | seltzered_ wrote:
         | A possibly helpful thread related to the heat pump retrofit
         | process and the need to assess context for each home:
         | https://twitter.com/karakara98/status/1598718540365938688
         | 
         | The other thing I've kept thinking about is the replacement
         | interval , material input (compressor, refrigerant, etc.) and
         | ease of maintenance. They generally have a lifetime of 10 years
         | IIRC.
        
           | danans wrote:
           | > The other thing I've kept thinking about is the replacement
           | interval , material input (compressor, refrigerant, etc.) and
           | ease of maintenance. They generally have a lifetime of 10
           | years IIRC.
           | 
           | The compressor and refrigerant should never have to be
           | replaced as a maintenance item. The compressor should be
           | cleaned off occasionally since it's outdoors, especially if
           | you live in an area with high dust/pollen, but that's no
           | different than an AC. The interior air handler maintenance is
           | the same as for any furnace or AC system. The lifetime is
           | also similar to a similarly built AC.
        
         | bagels wrote:
         | I'd much rather have oversized than undersized and still be
         | sweating inside when it's hot outside.
        
       | genmud wrote:
       | What a clickbaity, poorly written and sensational article.
        
       | kspacewalk2 wrote:
       | The only thing that's holding me back in electrifying more of my
       | life is my jurisdiction's track record in long-term planning for
       | grid and supply capacity. If I switch water heating, home heating
       | and transportation to electricity, and they fuck up again,
       | that'll affect me way more when rates start rising or shortages
       | begin. I'd rather they work out the kinks without me and be a
       | late adopter. For example, I will not be among the first 50% of
       | drivers to switch to fully electric. Being a one-car household I
       | believe we've already done more for the environment than 2 car EV
       | households simply by taking one vehicle off the roads.
        
         | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
         | Yeah I'm waiting for a carbon tax to pass somewhere. I'm an
         | environmentalist but why spend extra money being good when
         | there are still assholes driving lifted pickups with loud
         | exhausts and widened axles they don't need?
         | 
         | My next car will be a plug-in Prius though. My old boss had one
         | and almost never had to put gas in it. All-electric commute
         | with a range extender / emergency heater
        
       | vdaea wrote:
       | >"It's a really strong signal from states that they're committed
       | to accelerating this transition to zero-emissions residential
       | buildings,"
       | 
       | Heat pumps are zero-emissions now. Shipping them and replacing
       | your gas furnace also emits no carbon.
        
         | firebat45 wrote:
         | Have you ever tried running a gas furnace off of a solar panel?
         | 
         | "Accelerating a transition" != "this has been 100%
         | accomplished"
        
           | vdaea wrote:
           | I skipped the part of the article that says that the heat
           | pumps will always be accompanied by solar panels.
        
             | supertrope wrote:
             | The idea is that electrification enables a future where
             | electricity generation transitions to low emissions. A gas
             | furnace will always burn gas. In Canada electricity is
             | called hydro because it nearly all hydroelectric. So buying
             | an EV zeros out tailpipe emissions and electric generation
             | emissions are also very low.
        
       | seiferteric wrote:
       | Heat pumps look great and definitely planning on getting one (or
       | many) when my hvac system needs replacing, as well as a heat pump
       | water heater. In NorCal I think they are a no-brainer since it
       | doesn't get that cold to begin with, though I am unsure of what
       | options exist to replace a central AC/furnace system, or if it is
       | better to get several smaller ones throughout your house. Though
       | I have to laugh since it was only a few years ago there were news
       | articles decrying air conditioning as a climate disaster are now
       | claiming heat pumps are a climate savior...
        
         | Slevin11 wrote:
         | It is technically the correct climate; but unfortunately the
         | incorrect place for them, given the electricity costs and
         | propensity for large power outages during storms (read: times
         | when you actually need heating).
         | 
         | If you are in one of the cities with public utilities where
         | electricity is cheap, then go for it, great choice. But on
         | PG&E, the monetary proposition is awful compared to a gas
         | heater, modern wood stove, or masonry / rocket mass heater.
         | 
         | Given the extreme excess of wood in the region (that otherwise
         | ends up in huge forest fires), it makes a lot of sense to be
         | running an efficient wood stove / masonry / mass heater.
         | 
         | The big loss is of course automation, so it pays to have some
         | automated backup source of heat for when you are out of town,
         | but that could just be whatever heating method you are using
         | already.
         | 
         | If you are already heating using electric baseboards though,
         | yes, definitely move over to a heat pump. It will save you a
         | lot of money. Not as much as natural gas or the others, but
         | savings are savings.
         | 
         | Also, there are plenty of ducted air source heat pumps that
         | work as drop in replacements for gas furnaces. Use one of them
         | if you already have a ducted system that works well and do a
         | heat pump replacement.
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | > Though I have to laugh since it was only a few years ago
         | there were news articles decrying air conditioning as a climate
         | disaster are now claiming heat pumps are a climate savior...
         | 
         | Because they're completely coherent but for some reason you're
         | not thinking any further than "they're essentially the same
         | device"?
        
         | samatman wrote:
         | It's substantially cheaper in energy to cool buildings in the
         | hot parts of the world than it is to heat buildings in the cool
         | parts of the world. I've seen the sort of articles you're
         | referring to, in the US at least, they're thinly-disguised
         | political screeds based on nothing other than the fact that
         | there are more Republicans in the air-conditioned parts of the
         | country.
        
       | scythe wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/NkfeK
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | Hijacking my own comment:
         | 
         | I feel like I started talking about heat pumps a long time ago.
         | I'm unable to find evidence for this before 2021. Anyway, it's
         | certainly hit the cultural mainstream really fast over the last
         | couple of years, and the story on the street is...
         | manufacturers are running at capacity, installers have long
         | waiting lists, some people are getting systems installed that
         | aren't right for their space (too big or too small) and
         | regretting it.
         | 
         | It's good that we're doing this, but it feels like a microcosm
         | of our general cultural impatience. There's a limit to how much
         | government subsidies can speed the adoption of a new
         | technology. There are going to be issues with hiring a bunch of
         | technicians to install heat pumps really fast if they suddenly
         | don't have as much work in five years. The Spanish solar-energy
         | debacle of the early 2010s rings in my head.
         | 
         | Maybe instead of setting big, distant, ambitious-sounding
         | targets, we should set shorter, smaller, more gradual targets,
         | and update every couple of years to accelerate in a sustainable
         | way. It's pretty easy to say that the way to decarbonize the
         | economy is "as fast as reasonably possible"; forecasting how
         | fast that will be is hard, unnecessary, and potentially
         | distracting.
        
       | chankstein38 wrote:
       | Thank you, that's all I really cared about but I had "read my
       | last free article" so I couldn't even find that out. I'm so tired
       | of the internet.
        
         | mrpopo wrote:
         | I want a "Netflix of information". Let me pay 30EUR/month for
         | unlimited information access, quality, no clickbait and no ads.
         | 
         | Of course, seeing what happens with Netflix now, I guess it
         | wouldn't last long until things turn back to the old way...
        
           | jzawodn wrote:
           | I guess that's sort of the value proposition of Apple News+
           | if you're in their ecosystem, right?
        
             | ashryan wrote:
             | In general, yes. But it's also the "Netflix of information"
             | in that discovery is difficult, and you're fighting an
             | opaque algorithm working behind the scenes.
             | 
             | I'd love the information subscription but with, say, a
             | NetNewsWire-style interface: reverse chronological feeds
             | and search box.
        
           | pocketstar wrote:
           | inkl has pretty good variety of news sources for a reasonable
           | subscription fee, i subbed for years then started using apple
           | news. Unfortunately i cannot recommend inkl because you have
           | to email support to cancel your subscription, they offer a
           | 50% discount if you try to cancel but that business practice
           | of sign up with one click, email support to cancel i cannot
           | condone.
        
           | deeviant wrote:
           | It's the most obvious thing ever, and it, of course, will
           | never happen.
           | 
           | The new media companies seem completely oblivious to how
           | people consume information. I touch 10+ news sources a day,
           | at a minimum. There is no way in hell I'm going to subscribe
           | to 10+ new services.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | I would bet they know how people consume information, they
             | don't know how to sufficiently capture revenue from it or
             | if copy pasting it on a different website is sufficiently
             | easy.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | > I want a "Netflix of information". Let me pay 30EUR/month
           | for unlimited information access, quality, no clickbait and
           | no ads.
           | 
           | Used to be you simply paid your ISP and -bam- that was it:
           | you had the Netflix of information at your fingertips. Now
           | everyone has their hand out.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | Many people have their hand out, because many people think
             | working for free is not a good deal for them.
        
         | sev1 wrote:
         | You can read it on Ars: https://arstechnica.com/tech-
         | policy/2024/02/these-states-are...
        
         | malermeister wrote:
         | archive.ph will help in cases like that :)
        
         | dang wrote:
         | (We detached this subthread from
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39315648)
        
       | rconti wrote:
       | Bay Area, just beginning a remodel+expansion of our home. We've
       | never had air conditioning, and our gas furnace is well over 20
       | years old. We'd likely need to upsize the furnace anyway, and for
       | resale reasons if nothing else, adding A/C (and the attendant
       | larger ducts or whatever else) is a no-brainer while we have the
       | house apart.
       | 
       | A heat pump is absolutely a no-brainer in our case. I like being
       | able to get away from natural gas, although I must say, moving
       | all electric means we'll be held hostage more and more to PG&E.
       | (We have solar, but it'll be well below our needs once we had
       | square footage and the heat pump, and don't want to get screwed
       | by NEM 3.0).
        
         | zbrozek wrote:
         | PG&E electric rates are so high that it's operationally more
         | expensive to use a heat pump than a condensing gas system. The
         | heat pump is the better deal practically everywhere else in the
         | contiguous US.
         | 
         | I'm installing a heat pump system in PG&E territory as part of
         | a remodel, but pairing it with a large solar system.
        
           | TheBlight wrote:
           | Aren't PG&E gas rates substantially higher than their
           | electric rates?
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | There are a couple ways to interpret what you're saying:
             | that PG&E charges a higher rate relative to the national
             | average for gas vs. electricity, which is what I think you
             | mean, and that PG&E charges more for a joule of gas than a
             | joule of electricity.
             | 
             | Presuming you meant it the first way, it's still possible
             | that heating with gas is cheaper, since the national
             | average for a joule's worth of natural gas is quite a bit
             | cheaper than the same for electricity.
        
             | zbrozek wrote:
             | Their price per joule of electricity is higher than per
             | joule of gas by more than the coefficient of performance of
             | a heat pump. You are better off getting thermal energy by
             | burning gas if your energy provider is PG&E.
             | 
             | The story only gets worse once you start carefully
             | accounting for baseline allowances.
        
       | readthenotes1 wrote:
       | Every state should be doing it it's a part of the inflation
       | reduction act
       | 
       | https://www.rewiringamerica.org/app/ira-calculator
       | 
       | Plus a lot more
        
       | david422 wrote:
       | I recently got heat pumps in the hopes that I could phase out my
       | oil furnace. What I can say so far is:
       | 
       | The temperature is wildly inconsistent. I don't know if this is a
       | software issue, a hardware issue, or just the way heatpumps work.
       | I've had the installer come back and look at it, I've had the
       | heat pump rep come and look at it too. They basically checked
       | everything and tried to convince me this is normal.
       | 
       | With oil, I can set the temperature to, say, 70, and the
       | temperature will stay at 70.
       | 
       | With heatpumps, I can set a temperature and it can vary by ...
       | let's say 8 degrees. That's a lot. I have my bedroom temperature
       | at 66, and the wall thermostat often gets up to 73+. I look at
       | the software and it tells me the room is 68. Is the hardware not
       | reporting the right temp? Does the software just suck? The
       | heatpumps also vary in efficiency, so when it's warm outside it
       | tends to overheat, and when it's cold outside it tends to
       | struggle.
       | 
       | Wondering whether I got lemons or if other people have similar
       | experiences.
        
         | thehoff wrote:
         | We got a heat pump put in about a year and a half ago. We kept
         | the oil as backup for the days its too cold (which if I
         | remember right it switches over to oil somewhere around 40 F.
         | 
         | Our situation is the opposite. The house feels more comfortable
         | overall. Its still a little warmer upstairs where the home
         | office and bedrooms are but generally around the house it feels
         | a little more consistent.
         | 
         | You can definitely tell when the oil furnace kicks in as the
         | air is noticably hotter. But when that happens the house gets
         | warmer faster and gets a little too hot before it turns off
         | again. And stays a little too hot for too long.
         | 
         | We went with a midrange system. In hindsight I do kind of wish
         | we went with a different installer who was pushing a more
         | "cadillac" type system where the fan (according to him) would
         | always be (or just about) on but be variable in speed basically
         | keeping the house at the right temp more often and slightly
         | more savings.
        
         | oramit wrote:
         | It sounds like something is wrong with your installation. That
         | behavior certainly isn't normal for heat pumps and I would get
         | a new vendor. I had a heatpump in my Condo and those things
         | were rock solid, from 20 degrees to 110 I never had issues. In
         | my new house we have a gas furnace and are experiencing the
         | same behavior this winter you describe where the programmed
         | temp and the actual temp in the room wildly diverge.
         | 
         | Just this morning I woke up to it feeling chilly. The
         | thermostat said it was 65 and the programmed temp was 68 but it
         | wasn't running. When the furnace runs it works great but
         | something is off with the controller system. I need to call the
         | heating people....
        
         | theogravity wrote:
         | I had my heat pump installed in Dec. The contractor really
         | screwed up where they wired the zoning incorrectly - the upper
         | floor thermo controlled the lower damper and vice versa,
         | meaning that the pump would run almost indefinitely because the
         | thermostat would never register the temp of the opposing floor.
         | 
         | It took me a full week to troubleshoot this (what helped was I
         | bought a thermometer and placed it next to the thermostat to
         | verify temperature readings) and when I realized what was
         | happening, the contractor came and re-wired things, and now
         | things work like how it should. The temperature stays
         | consistent for both floors.
         | 
         | So definitely test your dampers.
        
           | david422 wrote:
           | > the upper floor thermo controlled the lower damper and vice
           | versa
           | 
           | I have 2 floors with multiple units and I was running around
           | with a wall thermometer taking measurements. This was
           | actually my guess as well since the temperatures seemed to
           | align this way. But the installer assured me it was wired
           | correctly .... I might need to find someone else to check
           | things.
        
         | dralley wrote:
         | That is simply not normal. I have a heat pump downstairs
         | (albeit a fancier Mitsubishi one) and it stays within one
         | degree of the target temperature at all times. It's much more
         | comfortable and stable than it was with the previous gas
         | furnace or the gas furnace we still use for the upstairs, and
         | it handled the temperature dropping into the low teens
         | overnight with no issues.
        
         | Siecje wrote:
         | 8 degrees is not normal+/- 1 C is what I experience.
        
         | nsguy wrote:
         | I'll put in another "not normal". I have a heat pump and the
         | temperature stability seems better than the furnace. It takes
         | longer to change but once it gets there it's very stable. With
         | every AC system it can be a challenge to get different regions
         | to be perfect but that shouldn't be worse with an air pump.
        
         | gniv wrote:
         | Did you check the hysteresis value? I've had similar issues
         | with some radiators, and the hysteresis was set to 0 (don't
         | know why it's even allowed), which caused it to run a lot more
         | than normal.
        
       | beej71 wrote:
       | Our neighbors are getting one (Central Oregon). Install price:
       | $15,000. Or $20k with two additional heads.
       | 
       | I have baseboard heaters, and even I don't know if I could make
       | up that cost before the heat pump needs replacement.
       | 
       | Every year now, though, it seems like we add one to the number of
       | days we need AC, something that was unnecessary when I first
       | moved here, so that would be nice...
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | [dupe] wasting our time OP
       | 
       | Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39288940
        
       | readingnews wrote:
       | I just replaced a furnace... everyone I called for a quote would
       | not touch a heat pump with a 20foot pole, or they wanted prices
       | that were 2X what a separate furnace and AC would cost to
       | install. It was very strange. This is the second home where I had
       | this experience.. basically, they really did not want to install
       | it. I ended up going with gas as no local person would
       | install/warranty a heat pump, or, it was priced so high it was a
       | non-starter (e.g. a gas furnace is $4k, the AC is $4k, making it
       | $8k, _but_ if you want a heat pump, well, that is going to be
       | $15,999.85.)
       | 
       | This was recently, btw, as in last month. I am still kind of
       | shaking my head.
        
         | huytersd wrote:
         | If you're somewhat rural the contractors just don't have the
         | experience to do it so they try to quote you out of the
         | decision. I had to shop around until I found a contractor that
         | had done this before and I was able to get a whole home heat
         | pump for about the same price as a regular furnace/AC system
         | (because of the rebates).
        
           | TheBlight wrote:
           | How well do they function? Do they provide nice consistent
           | heat? How's the noise? Sorry to clog up HN with a random
           | request of a product quality review but I'm in the market
           | right now to replace my furnace as well. Thanks.
        
             | demondemidi wrote:
             | Heat pumps need to come with an electric heater because
             | pumps stop working below 30 deg F.
        
               | wtallis wrote:
               | They come with an electric heater, but they don't stop
               | working until far below freezing point. It's normal for a
               | heat pump to still be better than pure resistive electric
               | heating even at 10degF.
        
               | headsupernova wrote:
               | This isn't true, the latest models work at temps far
               | below that. There are still thresholds where you'd want
               | another source, but they're very functional even in the
               | upper Midwest.
        
               | SOLAR_FIELDS wrote:
               | Ground source heat pumps are available that go down
               | significantly lower than 30F. They are more expensive.
               | Though running the electric wires is also very expensive
               | due to their inefficiency. Typical heat pumps are often
               | better suited for warmer climates because of this
               | 
               | It also appears that the tech for the more typical air
               | source heat pumps has improved significantly in recent
               | years which makes it more viable for colder climates
        
               | virtue3 wrote:
               | I believe they run a heat conductive fluid through heat
               | exchange coils in the ground. This allows you to pump
               | heat into the ground during winter and extract said heat
               | (not sure how accurate this is) during the winter.
        
               | BobaFloutist wrote:
               | You're not storing the heat that's underground, it's just
               | that the ground is a huge thing with massive heat storage
               | capacity that doesn't notice weather as much as above
               | ground does.
               | 
               | If above ground ranges from 0-100 degrees F, underground
               | likely ranges from like 64-68 degrees F, which makes it
               | really energetically "cheap" to get to your preferred
               | temperature range, heating to idk 70 at most and cooling
               | to probably not even 65.
        
               | Fuut wrote:
               | This is just not true at all.
               | 
               | Why do you even respond if you don't know enough about
               | heat pumps?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | It is practically true. Sure my heat pump can make heat
               | below 28F - but it was sized for cool my house in summer
               | and so it cannot make enough heat anymore and so I need
               | the backup heat.
        
               | demondemidi wrote:
               | Oh, sorry, I guess I was brainwashed by the "anti heat
               | pump mafia". I had this conversation with three HVAC
               | installers but according to this thread any HVAC
               | installer that speaks ill of heatpumps is old and stupid.
               | Recently, I stayed at an AirBNB recently that had a
               | heatpump and the temps dropped during the deep freeze and
               | it was running 100% of the time and failing. The AirBNB
               | owner said it was brand new and I would be responsible
               | for excessive electricity use. They didn't charge me.
               | Based on this, I am sooo glad I replaced my dead furnace
               | with gas three years ago and steered clear of heat pumps.
               | 
               | But do go on about how I don't know enough.
        
               | lkbm wrote:
               | Old heat pumps didn't do well in old temperatures. In the
               | 80s and 90s, a heat pump couldn't handle freezing temps.
               | 
               | Modern heat pumps do fine well below 0 degrees Celsius.
               | Here's one that's great to -15 C and okay down to -25
               | C[0]. If you search cold-climate heat pumps, you'll find
               | plenty of information about how modern heat pumps are
               | fine in most the temperatures you'll find in most of the
               | US (including up north).
               | 
               | (I have heard that a lot of them are still only available
               | in Europe, but you can definitely find some in the US.)
               | 
               | [0] https://carbonswitch.com/best-cold-climate-heat-pump/
        
               | antisthenes wrote:
               | I mean, instead of an argument you responded with some
               | kind of rant about your Airbnb experience.
               | 
               | So his point still stands.
        
               | huytersd wrote:
               | Not true, mine goes down to 23F with negligible decrease
               | in efficiency and still functions after that, but with
               | reduced efficiency.
        
             | gertlex wrote:
             | One anecdote I've seen is that the right way to run them is
             | to maintain a near-steady-state temperature in the house,
             | including overnight. I'm not sure if that's maybe a bit
             | extreme and just how they suggest use to non-savvy home-
             | owners, but it makes sense... They're not going to blast
             | out heat to raise the house temperature 10 degrees in an
             | hour in the morning. Spreading heat-increase over several
             | hours is more feasible. Good insulation presumably helps a
             | bunch, too.
             | 
             | For a similar reason, heat pump water heaters tend to have
             | a larger storage tank, as they take longer to heat the
             | water and you want more of a usage buffer.
        
           | TuringNYC wrote:
           | >> I had to shop around until I found a contractor that had
           | done this before and I was able to get a whole home heat pump
           | for about the same price as a regular furnace/AC system
           | (because of the rebates).
           | 
           | Not sure the trouble is over. You are only good until you
           | need servicing, and then you need to shop around again.
           | Servicing is even worse, because it is an acute problem and
           | you are under so much time pressure to solve the issue.
           | 
           | Sometimes even the company that sold the unit does not honor
           | their warranty. They shut down. They re-incorporate under a
           | new company, etc.
        
           | bonton89 wrote:
           | A guy at work doesn't have a heatpump, just some really high
           | efficiency oil boiler. He lives in a rural area and basically
           | had to become an expert on maintaining and repairing it
           | himself because no one seems to know how to service the
           | thing.
           | 
           | My father had similar issues with his new boiler although in
           | his case after constant failed repair attempts his local
           | place finally hired some guy who knew what he was doing.
           | 
           | There's also rebates on heatpumps around here but local
           | forums seem to suggest that the installers are super backed
           | up and quote "go away" prices. You can't get the rebate
           | unless you go with a state approved installer, so even if you
           | can install it yourself you're out of luck. Seems like
           | they've just raised their prices to compensate for the rebate
           | since they already had to much work.
        
           | bluedino wrote:
           | > If you're somewhat rural the contractors just don't have
           | the experience to do it so they try to quote you out of the
           | decision.
           | 
           | Or they're so busy they can pick and choose their jobs. I had
           | a quote to replace a 12 foot section of pipe come in at $700,
           | not even two hours worth of work.
        
           | readingnews wrote:
           | I thought of that, I am not rural (town is about 300,000
           | people)... Perhaps that is rural in some areas I guess.
           | 
           | The HVAC contractors here are pretty small, maybe they do not
           | want to take the risk.
           | 
           | As someone else said, if I had more time, I would have
           | purchased a few DIY split systems... I might do that for AC
           | only, as I did not replace the AC at that time.
        
         | jazzyjackson wrote:
         | wait I didn't know I could replace my AC with a heat pump, can
         | I replace my noisy AF condenser that's always grinding and
         | hissing or do heat pumps make the same noises
        
           | lolinder wrote:
           | A heat pump is just an air conditioner that can be run in
           | reverse. Replacing your air conditioner might help if it
           | makes the noise because it's old and broken, but if you just
           | really dislike the sound of an air conditioner it probably
           | won't help much.
        
             | modeless wrote:
             | Maybe one of the new variable speed ones would help?
        
             | ericd wrote:
             | The variable speed inverter ones tend to be much quieter
             | than the old single-stage ones that most people have, fwiw.
        
               | lolinder wrote:
               | Ah, right! I actually have a variable stage regular AC
               | unit, so that's not a benefit unique to heat pumps,
               | that's something you can get by replacing your AC unit in
               | general.
        
           | SOLAR_FIELDS wrote:
           | A heat pump is the same technology as what your condenser is
           | doing, just in reverse. So you could otherwise just think of
           | an air conditioner as one half of the heat pump in this case.
           | So no
        
           | jlawrence6809 wrote:
           | A heat pump is just an AC that can move heat in either
           | direction so you should be able to.
        
           | wtallis wrote:
           | AC is just a heat pump that doesn't give you the option of
           | running it backwards. There can be good and bad
           | implementations of either.
        
             | czbond wrote:
             | New to heat pumps. Can I replace sub-components of an
             | existing AC system with a heat pump for benefits of both?
        
               | jvanderbot wrote:
               | You have just constructed a heat pump.
               | 
               | Heat pumps have the benefits of both.
        
               | briffle wrote:
               | I'd be very interested as well. My gas furnace is only a
               | few years old, but my AC system is probably 10 years old.
               | If I could replace just that with a heat pump, and leave
               | my gas furnace in place as a backup, that would be ideal.
        
               | nixgeek wrote:
               | You can do that. It's very common in New England to go
               | this way because the heat pumps generally only work down
               | to -15F and then you need to switch to furnace for heat.
        
               | turtlebits wrote:
               | You can install non ducted mini splits, which is what I
               | did.
               | 
               | I left my oil furnace intact and added 4 high wall units
               | (each bedroom and living room) with 2 outdoor
               | condenser/compressors.
               | 
               | I still use my oil furnace when it gets below 40.
        
               | widdakay wrote:
               | I'm surprised this isn't more common. The only difference
               | between a heat pump and standard air conditioner is a
               | reversing valve. These are usually $50-$100, and just
               | require one more wire to the thermostat. In colder
               | weather, defrost and fancier controllers are needed, but
               | for mild climates the reversing valve is really all that
               | is needed.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | You are dealing with different pressures on the
               | refrigerant lines, but honestly that shouldn't really
               | matter all that much. You also need a bit of logic for if
               | the condenser starts freezing over to temporarily reverse
               | the flow (and turn off the home fan) to defrost.
               | 
               | But otherwise, yeah, almost identical and a little crazy
               | they'd cost much more over a typical install.
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | In theory but not practice. No one makes that kind of
               | conversion kit, and there are enough "minor" differences
               | (e.g. heat pumps need a defrost mechanism where AC's are
               | presumed to operate with hot ambient air) to make it
               | impractical.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Not really. You replace your existing AC with a split
               | heat pump. It's not a mix-and-match situation, but the
               | heat pump will both heat and cool and, if you already
               | have existing ductwork that's correctly sized, you should
               | be fine to just drop in a heat pump. (In an extreme
               | heating dominated climate, you could have ducts that are
               | too small for a heat pump, but adequately sized for AC
               | and a furnace. That's pretty uncommon though.)
        
               | sumtechguy wrote:
               | Things like the ducts plug right in.
               | 
               | Other things like the blower and condenser may need to be
               | swapped out. It also depends on how old your system is.
               | The controller will probably most certainly need to be
               | swapped out. Do the normal thing with contractors like
               | that. Call 3 different dudes have them come out and give
               | you an estimate. Tell them you want quotes for partial
               | swap out, full swap out, and 3 different price points.
               | Within a couple of weeks you will have most of the
               | knowledge you need if you want to do it.
               | 
               | My parents when they switched out they replaced both the
               | indoor unit and outdoor too because they were 30+ years
               | old at that point.
               | 
               | Now you probably have NG? If so you can also leave that
               | fairly in place as is. I did that with my prev house.
               | Then have the heat pump for when it is warm outside. Then
               | switch over to NG when it gets to a particular temp. I
               | set it to switch over at about 30F. I could have gone as
               | low as 15 with that unit. It worked decently for most of
               | the time. Where I live it maybe gets in the 20s for about
               | a week a year at most. So the heat pump worked decently.
               | 
               | One thing though I would say is if you have a older home
               | especially 1990 or older start with the insulation. It is
               | _wildly_ cheaper to get and gets you part of the way
               | there. Many power companies even run deals where they
               | will help you buy it.
        
               | esaym wrote:
               | A "heatpump" is an AC with a reversing valve. Yes you can
               | just get a reversing valve and have some hack cut and
               | solder it in for you. I'd assume any normal contractor
               | would charge $1000+ for that job though. It would take
               | multiple hours for a tech when instead he could make
               | multiple house calls in that same time (and possible
               | making more money doing house calls). So that is why you
               | won't find someone to do it. It make no sense. Right now
               | on ebay you can get a "Goodman 4 Ton 14 SEER Heat Pump"
               | for $1800 delivered to your doorstep.
               | 
               | Oh and I guess another thing a heatpump has that an AC
               | doesn't is a defrost controller board. You'd need one of
               | those too.
        
           | twiceaday wrote:
           | No, it's actually worse. The heat pump will make that same
           | compressor noise when cooling in the summer AND heating in
           | the winter.
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | Your experience is extremely common. Residential HVAC
         | contractors tend to be extremely conservative, and don't adopt
         | new technologies quickly, or even attempt to understand them. I
         | had some flexibility in time in replacing my 50 year old gas
         | furnace, so I was able to call about 8 contractors before I
         | finally found one who was comfortable with the tech and wanted
         | to do it.
        
           | ajross wrote:
           | Yeah, it's not an innovative sector, though a lot of the
           | blame belongs with the hardware manufacturers and not the
           | installers. FWIW, the quotes I got for installation weren't
           | that awful. But getting it hooked up to the Nest thermostat
           | turned out to be a 2-day process and require a subcontractor
           | to show up.
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | I've installed two Nest thermostats and there's industry
             | standardized color-coding and functionality and Nest
             | conforms to that. (I don't doubt that you had that problem,
             | but I think that speaks more to the incompetence of the
             | original installer than to the complexity of installing a
             | thermostat with a screen.)
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | I think it was more that the heat pump itself _really_
               | wanted to be integrated with the Carrier Official
               | Thermostat (which I think might have been an ecobee but
               | can 't remember), and the documentation on how to run it
               | in legacy/standard/on-off mode was missing or confusing.
        
             | CharlieDigital wrote:
             | Probably a bit more nuanced than that.
             | 
             | A lot of the installers run small businesses. If one of
             | these units goes wrong or if they do the install wrong
             | because it's new to them, then that's lost time and lost
             | revenue rectifying it.
        
         | Dowwie wrote:
         | where are you located? I was quoted 14k to replace a gas
         | furnace for a single family in NJ
        
           | ecshafer wrote:
           | Unless that's a massive furnace that's robbery. In philly I
           | replaced my furnace for $6k 2 years ago.
        
             | Dowwie wrote:
             | Got two quotes thus far and they're in the same ballpark. I
             | asked for quotes in December 2023, 2 months ago. Bergen
             | County, NJ.
        
         | UncleOxidant wrote:
         | Had exactly the same experience recently. It seems like there
         | are plenty of good mini-split heatpump systems that will work
         | down to 0F (or even lower) without any kind of backup heat
         | source. But if you're replacing a forced air furnace that feeds
         | an existing ducts the only options are heatpumps that need to
         | have backup heat under 30F. So essentially you're buying 2
         | furnaces in one which increases the cost. I'm in the PNW where
         | it rarely goes below 10F so the minisplit systems would work
         | fine without backup.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | That is what I got: a heatpump good to about 28F, and natural
           | gas backup. I still save a lot of money over the previous 50
           | year old propane furnace. However so many variables changed
           | at once I can't say if it was worth it.
        
           | sgerenser wrote:
           | There's plenty of central split heat pumps that can function
           | just fine below 30F. Look for ones marked "hyper heat" or
           | advertised for use in cold climates. As long as the heatpump
           | can handle down to 0F or so, then your backup heat only
           | really needs to be an electric resistance heat strip
           | (inefficient, but very cheap) since it would be used so
           | infrequently.
           | 
           | OTOH, if you're replacing a gas furnace and already have A/C,
           | then installing a new gas furnace + heat pump shouldn't cost
           | much more than a new gas furnace + new A/C.
        
         | yterdy wrote:
         | Reminds me of the hissy fit plumbers made over no-flush
         | urinals.
        
         | IndrekR wrote:
         | That sounds like a fantastic opportunity for a fresh company to
         | take over the market. Heat as a service.
         | 
         | It costs about 2kUSD to get air to air exchange heatpump
         | installed here (minisplit, includes the cost of the pump, EU).
         | Takes approx 3 hours.
        
           | turtlebits wrote:
           | Yes, HVAC contractors in the US massively overcharge.
           | 
           | I saved ~ 10k doing the install myself. The equipment is
           | inexpensive, labor can be upwards of 2x equipment cost.
        
             | aqfamnzc wrote:
             | Do you feel like the number of invisible footguns was
             | manageable? That's always my concern with diy trades stuff,
             | the things that seem fine at install but come back to bite
             | you 6mo later.
        
               | exhilaration wrote:
               | There's a bunch of DIY heat pump install videos on
               | YouTube, I watched this one recently:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79C2StyNlBg Honestly it
               | convinced me that it's beyond my skillset.
        
               | mauvehaus wrote:
               | In general with contractors, you aren't paying for them
               | to do the simple stuff right. You're paying them to get
               | the one or two weird bits of the job done quickly and
               | efficiently because they've seen something like it before
               | and have the tools and parts on their truck.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | That is why I didn't try to DIY. Sure I'm confident I
               | could get it installed. However I'm sure that I would
               | discover after the old furnace was tore out that I'm
               | missing some part/tool and so off to the store - what
               | would take a pro a single day would take me 3 weekends at
               | best: time that I don't have HVAC.
        
               | aqfamnzc wrote:
               | That's what I was asking about. How likely I am to
               | succeed at a DIY job seems to depend on the number of the
               | "weird bits" as you describe them.
        
             | mauvehaus wrote:
             | I looked into doing my own heat pump install. At least here
             | in Vermont, you can't buy one without a refrigeration
             | license[0] because of the ozone depletion issues with
             | refrigerants. You _also_ have to buy one from an in-state
             | supply house to qualify for some of the incentives. Not all
             | supply houses will sell to muggles.
             | 
             | My experience was that it was simpler and quicker to pay
             | someone despite having basically the simplest possible
             | installation: inside and outside units on opposite sides of
             | the same exterior wall. The guy was great, and recommended
             | a unit with an easily removable blower wheel for the dusty
             | wood shop application[1]. I wouldn't have gotten there on
             | my own, for sure. And he made sure that it qualified for
             | the incentives. The list is long, and the models that are
             | actually in production/available change pretty regularly.
             | 
             | Technically, it can be a pretty simple job. Practically,
             | local regulations and circumstances might sway things
             | towards hiring it out.
             | 
             | I say all this as someone who is a fairly competent shade-
             | tree mechanic. I've done an engine swap and replaced a
             | couple of clutches (transmission seal failure and previous
             | owner's poor work; I know how to drive stick)
             | 
             | [0] I'm playing fast and loose with the exact words; it's
             | been a few months since I looked into it.
             | 
             | [1] Cooper-Hunter, which is a Midea brand
        
         | jxramos wrote:
         | what were the justifications, did you ask out of curiosity for
         | them to share what was driving their decisions?
        
         | Casteil wrote:
         | Price gouging seems like standard practice for HVAC companies.
         | 
         | I'd like to replace my 25+ yr old system (gas furnace/AC) with
         | a new gas furnace & heat pump so I can have the option of
         | heating with gas or electricity... but when I ran this by an
         | HVAC technician who was here for a service call, I got the same
         | kind of exorbitant figures thrown at me with the heat pump in
         | the equation.
         | 
         | Same technician wanted $750 to replace a control board when my
         | furnace had gone out during a blizzard - I sourced my own & did
         | it myself for <$150.
        
         | acchow wrote:
         | For heat pumps, you actually want to start at the
         | manufacturers. Their website or customer service will help find
         | servicers in your area.
        
         | tilwidnk wrote:
         | We've owned three homes, our first one had a heat pump. In
         | Virginia. It generally sucked. It wasn't as good as real A/C in
         | the summer and wasn't as good as gas or electric heat in the
         | winter. I hope to never end up in a place that uses a heat
         | pump.
        
           | ikiris wrote:
           | ... what do you think real ac is?
        
             | tilwidnk wrote:
             | https://www.thisoldhouse.com/heating-cooling/reviews/heat-
             | pu...
             | 
             | "Heat pumps use refrigerant to condition the air in your
             | home by adding or removing heat through thermal exchange."
             | 
             | "Air conditioning is a cooling system that circulates cool
             | air into an enclosed space, creating a comfortable
             | atmosphere and improving indoor air quality."
             | 
             | "Air conditioners generally last longer than heat pumps
             | because air conditioners only run when the air needs
             | cooling, while heat pumps operate year-round."
        
               | lkbm wrote:
               | > "Heat pumps use refrigerant to condition the air in
               | your home by adding or removing heat through thermal
               | exchange."
               | 
               | This is what air conditioners do, too.
               | 
               | > "Air conditioning is a cooling system that circulates
               | cool air into an enclosed space, creating a comfortable
               | atmosphere and improving indoor air quality."
               | 
               | This is what heat pumps do, too.
               | 
               | These are two sentences that describe the same process,
               | just in different words.
               | 
               | The last quote is potentially relevant: a heat pump is an
               | air conditioner that can run in reverse to provide heat
               | in the winter, so you're running it in both situations,
               | and thus for more time.
        
         | ghufran_syed wrote:
         | I'm in Northern california, I just got a heat pump installed by
         | these guys: https://www.heliosclimate.io/ - a YC company btw,
         | for those who think they just fund consumer apps :)
         | 
         | Overall it was a great experience, there were some minor issues
         | immediately after installation that got dealt with quickly and
         | efficiently. I think the list price was similar to what you
         | were quoted, but in northern california (menlo park, peninsula
         | clean energy) there were around $5000 of grants/tax incentives,
         | and an interest free loan from pce for the rest, over 5 years
         | meaning our monthly repayment should be about equal to the
         | reduction in our gas bill.
         | 
         | We already had solar and batteries, otherwise I would NOT want
         | to put myself at the mercy of PGE and their crazy electricity
         | rates. But as they reduce the payment rates for solar
         | electricity, the heat pump becomes a better deal.
        
       | nostrademons wrote:
       | These states really need to get their electric rates down if they
       | want to accelerate adoption of electrification technologies.
       | 
       | We were planning to fully electrify our house + transportation in
       | the next few years. PG&E rate hikes and net metering policies put
       | the damper on that. It's now more expensive to fuel a vehicle
       | with electricity than gas, so I'm charging my PHEV at work and
       | using gas for the rest. We have solar + battery sized for the
       | existing usage of our house (gas heating, cooking, and vehicles),
       | because that's what PG&E would let us interconnect. Upgrading the
       | size to support a heat pump or EV would make us lose NEM2, so
       | we've just chosen to defer those upgrades until NEM3 is rolled
       | back or NEM4 comes out or there's new technology or the
       | Californian government falls.
       | 
       | In a way this is the market doing what it's supposed to. There's
       | a shortage of electricity because of everyone doing
       | electrification upgrades, so the price of electricity rises,
       | which incentivizes people to defer further electrification
       | upgrades until the grid can handle it. But if states actually
       | want adoption, they need to solve the utility bottlenecks and
       | increase generation capacity to support all the new usage.
        
         | shadowpho wrote:
         | > It's now more expensive to fuel a vehicle with electricity
         | than gas
         | 
         | How is that possible? Even at 20c/kWh it's still a good 4x cost
         | difference I though
        
           | widdakay wrote:
           | PGE goes up to 66c/kwh during peak now and in San Diego I
           | think is >70c/kwh. Off peak base is 34c/kwh for PG&E. Gas is
           | $4.5-$5/gal so break even I think ends up being near 50mpg
           | ish for a 300wh/mi EV.
        
             | brewdad wrote:
             | I'm not in CA, so genuinely curious. When you quote 66
             | cents/kwh is that the marginal rate for an addition kwh or
             | is that averaging in fixed costs? I pay about $20/mo just
             | to have an active service line to my house, even if I were
             | to shut off the breaker and not use any power. But my
             | marginal rate is about 18 cents/kwh.
             | 
             | I would call my rate 18 cents but not sure if we are doing
             | an apples to apples comparison.
        
               | svachalek wrote:
               | Marginal rate. SDGE is insanely expensive.
        
               | FullyFunctional wrote:
               | I find my (NorCal) PG&E bill extremely (and
               | deliberately?) inscrutable, but for the most recent
               | statement, the Off-peak net price was $0.427/kWh and
               | $0.466/kWh on-peak.
        
           | floatrock wrote:
           | Napkin math:
           | 
           | My crossover EV gets 2.5-3.5 mi/kWh. Call it 3. / $0.2/kWh =
           | 15 mi/$
           | 
           | Avg fuel economy in US ~ 25mpg. At $3.50/gal that's 7 mi/$
           | 
           | So at 20c/kWh, your dollar goes roughly twice as far on
           | electric. California has been seeing brutal rates, though --
           | 40c/kWh not uncommon.
           | 
           | Californians can play games with Time-of-Use rates (charge at
           | night), get onto EV-specific rates, be on a CCA which tend to
           | not have the try-to-not-burn-down-the-state adjustment fees,
           | get solar +/- NEM2 vs NEM3, etc., so your numbers may vary.
           | And different cars will have different MPG's of course. But
           | all of that is to say, "more expensive to fuel a vehicle with
           | electricity than gas" is not necessarily wrong in California.
        
             | aidenn0 wrote:
             | Where in California can you get gas for $3.50/gal?
        
               | qmarchi wrote:
               | Yuba City, CA. According to GasBuddy
               | 
               | ZIP: 95950
               | 
               | https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=39.0898424447186
               | 9&l...
        
             | burkaman wrote:
             | Gas in California is $4.50+ at the moment.
        
               | zbrozek wrote:
               | 3.78 at Mathilda and Maude in Sunnyvale
        
           | callalex wrote:
           | PG&E charges more like $.50 and it will soon be $.60-&.70.
           | The regulator is corrupted and the infrastructure is failing
           | because PG&E spent money that was supposed to be for
           | infrastructure maintenance on share buyback programs. As a
           | result the infrastructure failed and killed a ton of people,
           | so now the utility is in even more debt because of the
           | restitution owed.
        
           | gertlex wrote:
           | 20c/kWh? Not in California... Try 35c/50c peak or worse.
           | 
           | Even if you have solar, and got in before NEM3.0, that's
           | still not an incentive to electrify, when you're just selling
           | the non-peak energy to the grid for the increasing rates that
           | PG&E is charging/planning... (if that income-based minimum
           | monthly bill thing happens, this maybe changes a bit)
           | 
           | Not sure about the current gas/electricity per mile costs as
           | I'm still driving a 15 y/o gas car.
        
             | gnicholas wrote:
             | > _(if that income-based minimum monthly bill thing
             | happens, this maybe changes a bit)_
             | 
             | FYI, some legislators (including very left-leaning ones)
             | are moving to repeal this pending change:
             | https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-progressive-california-
             | epipha...
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | At 20c/kWh, that's ~5c/mi. For there to be a 4x cost
           | difference, a gas car getting 30 mpg would have to be paying
           | $6/gal for gas.
           | 
           | In MA, I bought gas yesterday in our ICE car for $3.10/gal.
           | Our electricity is $0.27/kWh. An ICE car getting 31 mpg is
           | $0.10/mi for energy. Our EV getting just under 4mi/kWh is
           | $0.07/mi for energy.
        
           | gnicholas wrote:
           | I have a not-terribly-efficient PHEV (2014 CMAX), and
           | depending on where we are in our tiered monthly usage it may
           | be more expensive to use electricity. We still do, since the
           | cost difference isn't huge and it's nice to ride with less
           | emissions/noise. But it is maddening that PG&E charges so
           | much that this is even possible (in CA, where gasoline prices
           | are also sky-high!).
        
           | turquoisevar wrote:
           | Can't speak for PG&E, but I know from experience that it's
           | cousin SDG&E (the most expensive in the country I believe)
           | will charge more than 60C//kWh in the summer during certain
           | times of the day and I've even had it be over 80C/ at certain
           | times if memory serves me right.
           | 
           | They've recently retired and restructured a bunch of rate
           | plans, but almost all historical and current rates can be
           | found on their website[0]. Somehow they still managed to keep
           | things nice and complex.
           | 
           | Keep in mind that none of these reflect so called CCA
           | pricing, which is another story in of itself. Same for the
           | "baseline allowance" after which rates go up, although
           | they've now seemed to have structured is a discount to
           | somewhat simplify rate comparisons.
           | 
           | 0: https://www.sdge.com/total-electric-rates
           | 
           | Edit: Got curious so looked at some statistics. Top lists of
           | most expensive electricity rates all mention Alaska and
           | Hawaii, ok fair enough, but even in the contiguous states
           | California isn't even mentioned somehow.
           | 
           | At the same time there are articles like[1] these[2] that
           | claim SDG&E was the most expensive (at the time).
           | 
           | So I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not sure.
           | 
           | 1: https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/fox-5-asks-sdge-
           | why...
           | 
           | 2: https://www.cbs8.com/article/money/amped/san-diego-has-
           | the-h...
        
         | nostromo wrote:
         | > These states really need to get their electric rates down if
         | they want to accelerate adoption of electrification
         | technologies.
         | 
         | I wish. Instead they'll just do what they're doing in my home
         | city, Seattle: ban gas furnaces and other forms of heating
         | entirely while raising electric rates even further. The masses
         | will cry that you have to be rich to live here, and they'll
         | respond to that by raising taxes and spending the raised funds
         | on consultants and bureaucrats studying electric utility
         | inequities. I wish I was making this up.
        
           | whateveracct wrote:
           | Come down to Tacoma. I got > $1k in rebates from the gas
           | company replacing my 20yo furnace + water heater with a HE
           | gas furnace and a gas tankless water heater.
           | 
           | Housing prices are up now, but early pandemic it was like
           | just south of $600k for a 3k sqft house built in the late
           | '90s in a nice neighborhood.
        
         | tomohawk wrote:
         | Just looking at my street, which is not old infrastructure,
         | they would have to replace all the electric lines, all the
         | transformers, and all the panels in all of the houses if
         | everyone here decided to have EVs. If everyone went to 100%
         | electric heat, it would be even worse.
         | 
         | We have dual fuel heating (heat pump, oil burner). It's
         | prohibitively expensive to run the heat pump below 32F (0C),
         | but the oil works great then, and is way cheaper. Just like the
         | heat pump is cheaper at warmer temps. The heat pump won't work
         | at all at 0F (-18C), so it's a non-starter to only use air
         | based heat pumps for all of our needs. We've tried to get
         | quotes for geothermal, but we'll just have to wait for the next
         | big recession to do that.
         | 
         | As an engineer, I just have to shake my head at the unrealistic
         | timelines being pushed by politicians. All that does is
         | increase cost and drama.
        
           | remotefonts wrote:
           | >>As an engineer, I just have to shake my head at the
           | unrealistic timelines being pushed by politicians. All that
           | does is increase cost and drama.
           | 
           | Do you really think that's a coincidence? Not being snarky,
           | just curious.
        
         | paulmd wrote:
         | it isn't just california either, deficient and neglected
         | infrastructure is basically a national-scale problem.
         | 
         | around my area we blew up _two_ substations during a heatwave
         | last summer. we constantly get brownouts at 4-6pm during the
         | post-work peak load such that I 'm almost not even comfortable
         | running the freezer/etc anymore (brownouts are really hard on
         | motors). and now you want to push all the gas heating (and this
         | area gets cold!) onto the grid too?
         | 
         | a lot of this is that urban and suburban areas are subsidizing
         | rural and ex-rural areas - _more than half of my bill_ is
         | already capacity-charges and delivery fees and not the actual
         | cost of the electric, and we 're still blowing up substations
         | regularly due to strained and overloaded infrastructure. Where
         | is the money going? Mostly to keeping miles and miles of power
         | lines out to the middle of nowhere, I'd think.
         | 
         | That's a problem America is going to face in a lot of "ghost
         | town" scenarios - when "the mine dries up" or "the train
         | doesn't stop here anymore" and a place stops existing, the
         | infrastructure costs to service the 20 people still living
         | there don't. Repaving the roads every couple of years, plowing
         | and salting them during the winter, etc aren't free and the
         | reality is that in some areas there's really almost no economic
         | activity anymore to justify the cost. We just have covenants
         | and mandates that prevent ever undoing it. And that runs up the
         | bills for everyone else.
         | 
         | We have 400k people in this county of 700mi^2, and that's
         | suburban, not-particularly-dense either. Another county we have
         | 40k people in 2700 mi^2. Should everyone in the former have to
         | subsidize the lifestyle of the latter? We are talking about 2
         | orders of magnitude less density here, while it's not quite 1:1
         | there's no doubt they are incurring _significantly_ higher
         | infrastructure costs for their lifestyle and we are paying for
         | it.
         | 
         | And since people won't pay for it, what we end up with is
         | _everyone 's_ infrastructure falling into neglect, to pay for a
         | handful of rural customers.
        
         | callalex wrote:
         | > In a way this is the market doing what it's supposed to.
         | There's a shortage of electricity because of everyone doing
         | electrification upgrades, so the price of electricity rises
         | 
         | PG&E electricity rates have absolutely nothing to do with free
         | markets. The only thing setting PG&E rates is corruption and
         | incompetence, but mostly corruption.
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | Customer choices in _response_ to electric rates is
           | absolutely free markets, though.
           | 
           | I think that there's a lot wrong with the utility system in
           | California (and the corruption actually _incentivizes_
           | incompetence - the only way for executives to increase
           | profits, make the stock go up, and get higher bonuses is to
           | increase their costs, so PG &E is very good at inflating
           | costs by doing stuff like burning down cities). But _given_
           | that PG &E is as incompetent as they are, the logical market
           | response is to make yourself as independent from them as
           | possible.
        
             | bagels wrote:
             | They are using their lobbying power to prevent this. They
             | want their cut regardless of service. Income based minimum
             | monthly payment of $92/mo and nem 3 changes.
        
             | super_moose1 wrote:
             | Electricity in California is not a free market though.
             | 
             | When I lived in Texas I could choose my electricity
             | provider and see what different rates they charge for
             | electricity to choose a provider.
             | 
             | In California I can choose Edison for my electricity or
             | have no electricity.
        
         | burkaman wrote:
         | > It's now more expensive to fuel a vehicle with electricity
         | than gas
         | 
         | This is very hard to believe, what are you paying for
         | electricity? California gas prices are also way above the
         | national average at the moment. Here's a per-state comparison
         | from last year, I'm sure it's a bit out of date but I doubt
         | things have completed flipped in a single year:
         | https://energyinnovation.org/2023/07/27/ev-fill-up-savings/
        
           | GloriousKoji wrote:
           | I live in the Bay Area California and get electricity from
           | PG&E. I use a minimal amount of electricity and I paid 43
           | cents/kWh last month. Gas from Costco is $4/gal right now. I
           | have a plugin-hybrid which does 4miles/kwh and 45mpg or in
           | terms of money: 9.3miles/$ on electricity and 11.25gas-
           | miles/$ on gasoline.
           | 
           | But maybe you don't actually care about fuel efficiency, then
           | you have an argument that it's cheaper to fuel a Tesla Model
           | 3 instead of a BMW M3.
        
             | burkaman wrote:
             | Thanks that's helpful, and just found an overview of
             | current rates that matches what you're saying:
             | https://www.pge.com/content/dam/pge/docs/account/rate-
             | plans/...
             | 
             | I think it is still true in California that an average EV
             | is cheaper to fuel than an average gas car, but if you have
             | a very efficient hybrid then it's a bit cheaper than a pure
             | EV.
        
             | gcheong wrote:
             | "I paid 43 cents/kWh last month"
             | 
             | I live in the Bay Area as well and I have an EV (2015 Fiat
             | 500e), and am on the PG& Home Charging EV2-A plan. I charge
             | my car between 12am and 3pm and pay $0.28/kwh, 29kwh/100
             | miles and I should be getting about 12.3miles/$.
        
               | Gibbon1 wrote:
               | I think it's always instructive to break out all the
               | costs of owning a car on a per mile basis.
               | 
               | I but about $700/year in gasoline. And pay about
               | $600/year insurance. And drive about 6500 miles a year.
               | 
               | So insurance and gas are both about 10 cents a mile. I
               | think depreciation and maintenance are higher at about 15
               | cents/mile. So 50 cents a mile. IRS says a business can
               | write off 67 cents a mile.
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | PG&E is 62 cents/kwh for peak rate above-baseline, I believe
           | 52 cents/kwh for off-peak (which most EV charging would be).
           | Gas prices where I'm at are around $4.20/gal. I ran the
           | numbers for my Mazda CX-90 PHEV SUV, which gets about 1.7
           | mi/kwh on electric and about 23 mpg gas. It's about 30
           | cents/mile on electric and about 18 cents/mile on gas.
           | 
           | For this tank only I have been charging at home (and at work,
           | and anywhere I can), because I want to see how much mileage I
           | can get out of a tank with full PHEV driving. In this regard
           | it hasn't disappointed; I'm at 1200 miles and just passed
           | half a tank of gas. But once I have a baseline for how much
           | of my driving _can_ be done on electric, I 'll probably
           | switch to just charging at work (where it's free) and using
           | gas for most other driving, because it's so much cheaper.
        
             | burkaman wrote:
             | I see what you're saying, that makes sense for that
             | vehicle. I think pure EVs tend to get about twice as many
             | miles per kWh as your car, so for an average pure EV
             | compared to an average pure ICE I think the EV is still
             | cheaper to fill up, although it is pretty close with these
             | prices.
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | It's not really the pure EV vs. hybrid factor, it's the
               | weight. The CX-90 is a really big (5200 lbs) 8-seater.
               | Hence why its gas mileage is only about 23. It's also
               | very heavily terrain & road dependent, eg. for roads with
               | lots of stop signs in the hills, I get 0.6 mi/kwh or 8
               | mpg, but for flat highway driving it's about 3.0 mi/kwh
               | or 40 mpg.
               | 
               | A typical EV would get more like 4 mi/kwh, but then, the
               | equivalent ICE car would get more like 35 mpg. The
               | delta's a little bit closer because of peculiarities of
               | the CX-90's powertrain, but not a whole lot.
        
             | gcheong wrote:
             | You should look into a PGE EV time of use rate plan if you
             | can charge your car between 12am and 3pm - that should drop
             | your rate for charge down to about 34 cents per kWh (though
             | on my last bill mine was 28 cents per kWh).
             | 
             | https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-plans/find-your-best-
             | rat...
        
         | qqqwerty wrote:
         | The PG&E rate increases have a lot more to do with wildfires
         | than it does with supply and demand. Look at SMUD rates, super
         | affordable. I will agree though that it has been super
         | frustrating for these rate increases to be hitting right around
         | when electrification is picking up steam.
         | 
         | With that said, unless you are comparing the most efficient ICE
         | against the least efficient EV's you should still see savings
         | with an EV. If I charged our EV at the peak electricity rate
         | (which I rarely do) it still costs about half as much as a
         | fairly average ICE vehicle on a per mile basis. Compared
         | against some of the most efficient ICE vehicles (hybrids like
         | the Prius) I would still come out ahead, maybe by only 20%
         | though. But again, that is comparing the worst case scenario
         | where I only charge at peak rates. In practice we probably
         | average around half of the peak rate from a mix of at home, at
         | work and around town charging.
         | 
         | I will admit though that it is not a particularly good look for
         | CA regulators to be pushing electrification so hard while also
         | allowing huge rate increases. It ends up looking like a huge
         | handout to the investor owned utilities. And the proposed rate
         | changes that implement an income based fix charge are
         | absolutely idiotic. With batteries coming down in price we
         | could soon see the economics of going off grid become much more
         | attractive, which would further exacerbate the situation (CA
         | IOUs will need battery adopters to stay connected to the grid
         | to help with intermittency)
        
         | oramit wrote:
         | This is one of my big annoyances as well. Whatever happened to
         | the idea of electricity that was too cheap to measure?
        
           | selectodude wrote:
           | We had a collective meltdown at the idea of nuclear power.
           | I'm currently paying 1.7 cents per kWh in Chicago.
        
       | yellow_postit wrote:
       | moved from oil furnace to heat pump in Seattle (with electric
       | strip backup)
       | 
       | Seems like a perfect fit for our weather patterns but was
       | definitely not the most economical option as it kicked off a
       | domino effect of upgrades I wasn't missing before.
       | 
       | Its no where near as "cozy" as the oil heat was, and the
       | temperature of airing coming from the vents is significantly
       | lower than the oil system. So the domino of upgrades is now
       | looking at insulation, windows, etc. Which likely all needed
       | upgrades in our old home anyway, but it's been a journey.
        
         | nsguy wrote:
         | I did the same in Vancouver, BC. We took advantage of
         | incentives to improve our insulation and to make the switch.
         | E.g. we just fixed our crawl space.
         | 
         | The heat pump did struggle a little during the more extreme
         | cold weather we saw a few weeks back (going down to -15C) but
         | we've kept our natural gas fireplace as backup and "assist".
         | 
         | I'm pretty sure it's a little more expensive to run with a heat
         | pump, so you need to be willing to pay more for reducing your
         | carbon footprint. The incentives do help though. Similar to
         | switching to an EV which we also did for similar reasons. I
         | think if you're purely looking at $$$ then it's not necessarily
         | the optimal decision.
        
         | bullfightonmars wrote:
         | I did the same this past thing, the best part about it is the
         | reduction in cost for heating from 300+/mo to ~25/mo, The
         | downside is that it was terribly expensive to install, it ran
         | me 40k to install the new heat pump and air handler.
        
           | brewdad wrote:
           | That's why I stuck with a gas furnace and traditional AC when
           | I was looking a few years ago. My heating and cooling costs
           | are only about $800-1000 a year. Spending an extra $8-10k up
           | front in hopes of reducing that figure simply doesn't pencil
           | out. Maybe by the time I'm in the market for a new system it
           | will.
        
         | ebcase wrote:
         | I'm going through this process currently (getting estimates
         | from local HVAC contractors, SF Bay Area), and their general
         | guidance so far is to get a Hybrid electric + gas heat pump
         | config.
         | 
         | The electric heat pump alone isn't sufficient compared with
         | gas, and the "add-on" you get to add more heat to the heating
         | output is like a space heater, thus very expensive month to
         | month.
        
         | turtlebits wrote:
         | In Seattle as well. I kept my oil furnace and added mini splits
         | to each room.
         | 
         | What helped the most for my old house was attic insulation. I
         | spent around $700 to buy blown-in packs (and got free machine
         | rental) and got my attic to around R-40. I'm able to set my
         | thermostat 5 degrees higher without any change to my energy
         | bill.
        
       | nostromo wrote:
       | I have mixed feelings about our heat pump system.
       | 
       | Yes, it's efficient. But it breaks about once every other year.
       | Last winter the compressor circuit board malfunctioned and cost
       | $5k to fix. Two years ago it was another issue entirely.
       | 
       | All of our savings have been lost to service calls. I'm not super
       | price sensitive, but it's still a pain when the heat goes out in
       | the middle of winter and all the service techs are booked up.
       | 
       | This is a Daikin system, which I thought was a pretty standard,
       | respected brand. But like a lot of things built today, it just
       | wasn't built to last.
       | 
       | If we ever have to replace it, we're going to have to rip open
       | half of the house to remove the heating lines. It'll be a
       | nightmare.
       | 
       | I had a heat pump water heater at our previous home, and the
       | compressor also broke after a few years. We just operated it as
       | an old-fashioned electric water heater after that because it
       | would cost more to fix than it would to replace. And both sounded
       | like a pain.
        
         | nsguy wrote:
         | I got a TOSOT. So far so good.
        
         | liminalsunset wrote:
         | I'm wondering if many of the failures in electronically
         | controlled equipment are due to power surges etc. It may be
         | worth having a whole-home (or equipment specific) surge
         | protective device installed, which will protect the power
         | electronics (which have very minimal surge protection built in)
         | from anything else happening on the line (particularly if there
         | are storms where you live often)
        
         | cyberax wrote:
         | > If we ever have to replace it, we're going to have to rip
         | open half of the house to remove the heating lines. It'll be a
         | nightmare.
         | 
         | Why? Assuming you have a split unit, the lines are just copper
         | pipes and will work with any other heatpump.
        
           | nostromo wrote:
           | Potentially, yes. But when we asked about this we were told
           | that not all heat pumps and head units are compatible -- so
           | we seem to be locked in based on brand, model, and
           | refrigerant type.
        
             | peteradio wrote:
             | I think people may be aware of your price insensitivity.
        
             | jmtulloss wrote:
             | FWIW there are different sizes but they are standardized
             | and you can adapt most sizes to each other (although on the
             | compressor side you only would want to size down). If you
             | ever need to replace it you'll need to be careful with the
             | line sizes but you should be able to find a compatible unit
             | to your existing install.
             | 
             | Controllers, otoh, are a different story. You will probably
             | need to replace your head units if you also replace the
             | compressor with a different brand. Same story with being
             | careful about line size.
             | 
             | Refrigerant isn't a big deal as you'll need to flush it and
             | repressurize anyway if you replace these parts.
        
               | nostromo wrote:
               | Thank you. You're more helpful than the last service tech
               | we talked to. :)
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | > so we seem to be locked in based on brand, model, and
             | refrigerant type.
             | 
             | Oh, that's totally true for newer models. They no longer
             | use simple dry-contacts interfaces, but instead have
             | complicated digital protocols between head units and the
             | compressor.
             | 
             | So quite likely you'll have to replace them all.
             | 
             | But you won't need to open up the walls and replace the
             | piping.
        
         | teaearlgraycold wrote:
         | How cold are your winters? My heat pumps are doing fine but
         | it's NorCal so they never have to work too hard.
        
         | ikiris wrote:
         | Sounds like you got seriously taken advantage of by the
         | contractors you've been using.
        
         | antisthenes wrote:
         | > Last winter the compressor circuit board malfunctioned and
         | cost $5k to fix.
         | 
         | Ok, so it sounds like you got scammed. HVAC circuit boards cost
         | $100.
         | 
         | > Two years ago it was another issue entirely.
         | 
         | Which was?
         | 
         | > All of our savings have been lost to service calls. I'm not
         | super price sensitive
         | 
         | Yeah, obviously, if you're willing to spend $5k on a service
         | call.
         | 
         | > If we ever have to replace it, we're going to have to rip
         | open half of the house to remove the heating lines.
         | 
         | Heat Pump units can just go in place of a regular AC unit. They
         | can use existing ductwork and coolant lines. Not sure why you
         | ran heating lines everywhere? Do you have a mini-split unit per
         | room or something?
        
       | prpl wrote:
       | Which models are y'all using out there on HN, and for what square
       | footage/location?
       | 
       | I'm in SF and have a gas heater, but a 115 year old house with
       | only 4 vents (none in bedrooms), and it's been cold. I'd like to
       | replace, maybe DIY, but not sure.
        
       | robszumski wrote:
       | One issue with heat pumps is they are more complex in terms of
       | modes they can be in, especially if you have multiple zones. I
       | was troubleshooting an auxiliary heat issue and had to pull from
       | the Ecobee API just to make sense of what was happening on cold
       | nights across zones.
        
       | aidenn0 wrote:
       | Anyone know what sort of electrical requirements there are for
       | these? We currently have a gas furnace and gas range. My
       | electrical panel is full (we used up the last of it installing
       | 220V for the clothes dryer), and the furnace is on the opposite
       | side of the house from the electric panel, under a different
       | roofline.
       | 
       | I'm going to at some point get an electrician in to look at
       | things and see what the options are, but my house just isn't
       | wired for it currently.
        
         | spamizbad wrote:
         | Assuming your home has 200 amp service you should be fine.
         | Typically if your panel is out of space and more circuits are
         | needed, you'll need a subpanel installed (just a smaller panel
         | that handle some of your circuits). Alternatively an
         | electrician may just recommend you upgrade to a bigger panel.
         | Either way most of your costs are likely going to be on the
         | labor side.
        
         | ajross wrote:
         | You don't need space in the panel as clearly you already have a
         | circuit breaker for your existing air handler. It will be a
         | bigger line though, my house in Portland got a central heat
         | pump and handler that wants 40A.
        
           | aidenn0 wrote:
           | I would _not_ put it past the people who wired this house to
           | have shared circuit for the furnace blower with the bathroom
           | right next to it, but we 'll see.
        
         | mapmap wrote:
         | If you have lighting circuits that previously were incandescent
         | but are now all LED, you might be able to combine some of them
         | on a single 15 amp breaker.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | If you have AC, this replaces the AC and so uses that breaker.
         | If you don't have AC you need space for a breaker in the panel
         | - but this is easy to get (add a sub panel - $500)
         | 
         | The real question is what kind of service you have. If the
         | power company cannot deliver enough power then you need more
         | power and this will cost you at best $4000 to replace your
         | panel, and could be in the tens of thousands depending on what
         | your power company wants.
        
       | mdasen wrote:
       | One of the big problems with heat pumps in New England is that
       | our electricity costs 1.7x the US average (https://www.eia.gov/el
       | ectricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...).
       | 
       | If you're in the South, a heat pump makes perfect sense. You're
       | going to want AC anyway and it'll be way more efficient and save
       | a ton of money when you want heat. In most of the country, even
       | if it gets cold your electricity prices are still a ton cheaper.
       | Iowa/Kansas/Missouri/Nebraska get cold, but their electric rates
       | are less than half ours.
       | 
       | Heat pumps do work into freezing New England temperatures, but
       | they're a bit less efficient as it gets to zero fahrenheit. That
       | wouldn't matter if our electric rates were more reasonable, but
       | at our high rates a heat pump would probably cost me an
       | additional $50/mo in the winter (compared to natural gas). That
       | isn't so bad and our electric rates might come down as offshore
       | wind actually starts happening. Plus it might actually be cheaper
       | than gas given that mini-splits would mean I could choose which
       | rooms I want to heat rather than heating the whole place as a
       | single zone. Plus there's the option to get solar power to drive
       | down prices.
       | 
       | But I think the biggest issue in New England (and California)
       | will probably be the high cost of electricity. In most of the
       | country, heat pumps are a huge no-brainer.
        
         | bruce511 wrote:
         | I'm not in NE, so forgive me if this is obvious, but high
         | electricity prices might make solar attractive to you.
         | (Unrelated to the heat-pump question.)
         | 
         | I'm in a similar high-priced environment, but we get a fair
         | amount of sun. I'm getting around a 16% return on capital based
         | on electricity usage reduction.
        
           | jauntywundrkind wrote:
           | New England just doesn't have a lot of light. The time to
           | return on investment is commendurately longer. And in the
           | winter it's much worse.
           | 
           | NREL has solar availability maps. Alas the scale sucks;
           | there's great monthly average views, but all done with the
           | same yearly average scale, so during the summer everything is
           | the same full-red potential (>5.75 kWh/m^2/d) and during the
           | winter everything is (mostly) the same low potential
           | (<4kWh/m^2/d). Still, one can kind of read some pattern from
           | fall/spring & see how a lot of NE looks a lot like, say,
           | Seattle (<<4 average). https://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar-
           | resource-maps.html
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | Solar is so cheap it usually still makes sense financially
           | even in areas without a lot of sun, but less so.
           | 
           | Lots of cold places in northern latitudes have short winter
           | days that are overcast more often than not yielding only a
           | little solar energy for a big chunk of the year.
        
           | david422 wrote:
           | I use solar, but using heat pumps and an electric car uses
           | maybe 3x more electricity than my roof can produce.
        
             | newZWhoDis wrote:
             | Higher efficiency panels + vertical panels would help. Most
             | houses have decent south-facing walls.
             | 
             | Ground mount is also an option in many places.
        
               | k12sosse wrote:
               | Live underground and convert your whole yard to arrays of
               | panels!
        
         | lex-lightning wrote:
         | Alright, maybe I'm out of touch, but I don't think electricity
         | is expensive in California.
         | 
         | Even during 115 degree heatwaves in a 70-year-old, 3-bedroom,
         | single-family home. Most I paid was $100 in a month with 2
         | people with gaming computers working from home.
         | 
         | Not everyone has that kind of money, but my point is that most
         | people have cell service and other services which add up to
         | more than electricity costs.
         | 
         | That's fine, I make no judgement of what people spend. I'm just
         | setting a comparison. For how much value electricity provides
         | us and how much we use it, I wouldn't call it expensive, even
         | in California.
         | 
         | YMMV by city, but it wasn't an issue in Sacramento. The real
         | monster is climate change, and so here we have a chicken-and-
         | egg problem combined with wealth disparity.
         | 
         | I think we need comprehensive social program packages to
         | address this.
        
           | bagels wrote:
           | How? It's $0.52/kwh here, and before that rate increase, we
           | were paying (edit) $278/mo in the summer for similar (70 year
           | old 3 bedroom house), and slightly lower temepratures.
        
             | lex-lightning wrote:
             | Time-of-day program with SMUD. Ran the AC as cool as it
             | could go before peak, turned it off during peak. At move-in
             | we dumped multiple feet of insulation (more than code
             | requires) into the place. At worst it got to 80 degrees.
             | 
             | Might have been a bit over $100, but I'm just as
             | flabbergasted at your $278.
        
               | lex-lightning wrote:
               | Lol. Dogpile away. Imma count my money I saved and sit
               | here in my early retirement.
        
               | what_ever wrote:
               | I think you are out of touch. You need to compare the PGE
               | rates with SMUD to get the picture.
               | 
               | https://www.smud.org/en/Rate-Information/Residential-
               | rates
               | 
               | https://www.pge.com/assets/pge/docs/account/rate-
               | plans/resid... (PDF File)
               | 
               | PGE's off-peak rates are 3x SMUD's off-peak rates. PGE's
               | peak rates are 1.5x to almost 2x of SMUD's peak rates.
        
             | tomschlick wrote:
             | For context of how crazy that is... here in OH we pay
             | ~$0.12/kwh
        
               | secabeen wrote:
               | Another factor is topography. Ohio is pretty flat and
               | running power lines around it is not that hard.
               | California is big and has lots of rugged terrain. It
               | costs a lot more to bring power to the small town in the
               | California mountains, and those costs have to be paid by
               | the urban and sub-urban customers of our large state-wide
               | utilities.
        
           | GoatOfAplomb wrote:
           | With the latest PG&E rate hike, my off-peak rate is 33c/kwh
           | and the highest peak rate in 66c. I think the national
           | average is 19c? That seems like a pretty drastic difference
           | to me.
        
             | mcbishop wrote:
             | The cost relative to other places is a different
             | consideration than the value per dollar relative to our
             | other expenses. OP is speaking to the latter.
        
           | acchow wrote:
           | Can you share your rate during that period? Makes for a
           | simpler comparison
        
           | gnicholas wrote:
           | When I looked into this, I learned that we pay 2x what
           | neighboring states pay.
        
             | floxy wrote:
             | Looks like California has the 3rd highest rate after Hawaii
             | and Rhode Island:
             | 
             | https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/
        
           | nkingsy wrote:
           | Let's say 30 kWh per day is the norm to run ac in the summer.
           | 
           | Assuming $.40 per kWh, which is lower than my PGE rate,
           | that's $360 per month just to run the ac.
           | 
           | Not sure what kind of setup you have. $100 is my bill if I'm
           | not home in the winter and leave everything off.
        
             | lex-lightning wrote:
             | I'm picking up a sentiment from the downvotes so let me
             | defend: I'm not lying lol.
             | 
             | SMUD time of day. Ran the AC super cold during the night
             | (so it would run the entire off-peak period). Ran it
             | somewhat cool during mid-peak. Didn't use it at all during
             | peak.
             | 
             | Other appliances I only ran at night.
             | 
             | Installed lots of insulation at move-in.
             | 
             | Like I said in OP, Sacramento. YMMV.
             | 
             | But in any case I'd argue $360 is still not _expensive per
             | se_ given the value you're getting. How many square feet
             | were you cooling? What else was operating?
             | 
             | It's just about perspective. I was responding to the claim
             | that electricity is expensive.
        
           | losvedir wrote:
           | FYI, a monthly bill is essentially useless information. How
           | big is your house? What are you using it for? How efficient
           | is your fridge? Your A/C? How much is the fixed cost part of
           | the bill? Etc.
           | 
           | I'm assuming, since you mention Sacramento and peak hours,
           | these[0] are your rates? Next time, share those so folks in
           | other places can compare. That page has these:
           | 
           | Summer:
           | 
           | * Off-peak: $0.1425 kWh
           | 
           | * Mid-peak: $0.1967 kWh
           | 
           | * Peak: $0.3462 kWh
           | 
           | Non-Summer
           | 
           | * Off-peak: $0.1151 kWh
           | 
           | * Peak: $0.1590 kWh
           | 
           | That's pretty high, but I think middling to low for
           | California. For comparison, in my town outside Chicago, we
           | have a year-round all-day rate of $0.12 kWh.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.smud.org/en/Rate-Information/Residential-
           | rates
        
           | TheOsiris wrote:
           | yeah, there's absolutely no "maybe" about it, you are
           | definitely out of touch :). I don't know in what way exactly,
           | but something is off. What is your per kwh rate exactly? You
           | might be getting some kind of subsidies that you are not
           | aware of, perhaps? I used to live in a 1200 sqft house in LA
           | without any AC or anything consuming too much electricity,
           | and 10 years ago before all the rate hikes I was still paying
           | more than $100/month in west LA.
        
           | BobaFloutist wrote:
           | That's because you're on SMUD, not PG&E, so you're not
           | getting charged to cover the maintenance and liabilities of
           | above-ground high-voltage power lines going into a forest on
           | a mountain in the middle of nowhere.
        
         | bagels wrote:
         | Right, the heat pump will reduce energy use to maybe 1/3 of a
         | gas furnace, but natural gas is something like 6x cheaper for
         | the same amount of energy, so it is an expensive folly.
         | 
         | If California is serious about this, they need to reign in the
         | utilities to reduce prices and or stop the attacks on solar
         | installation.
        
           | mullingitover wrote:
           | Southern Cali resident here: I got a mini split system
           | installed a couple years back, and last year's eye-popping
           | surprise gas bill inspired me to start running it backward
           | for heat instead of using the furnace.
           | 
           | Pricewise, it's actually a wash. My electric bill went up by
           | about $100 a month, whereas during the winter my gas bill was
           | running about $100 a month to run the furnace (aside from
           | that one random $600 bill one month last year that inspired
           | this change). I've been using the mini split all winter and
           | it's been great.
        
             | CaliforniaKarl wrote:
             | Thank you for posting that. Although the cost of
             | electricity is important, when deciding on using a heat
             | pump for heat, the big question is the cost of electricity
             | for heating, relative to the cost of the fuel you are
             | already using (natural gas, propane, oil, etc.).
             | 
             | It's definitely annoying to calculate! Since a heat pump's
             | efficiency can vary with the outside temperature, it takes
             | a bit of work to estimate your potential added electricity
             | cost.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Also cost of capital for installing the heat pump, if a
               | new installation.
        
             | thelastgallon wrote:
             | Its a wash when gas prices are at historical lows:
             | https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm
        
               | Spivak wrote:
               | That isn't the table you actually care about because it
               | doesn't hit the residential customer like that. The
               | nominal $/therm in my area has been stable for the last
               | 10 years which might be artificial but to my bank account
               | it's all the same.
        
           | exe34 wrote:
           | Is there a reason heat pumps use electricity? I would have
           | thought the same approach would work with gas - you only need
           | to burn a fraction of the gas to drive the "fridge"
           | backwards?
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | You seem to be missing something fundamental here, I'm not
             | sure what it is. How do you think heat pumps work?
        
               | Arrath wrote:
               | OP has a point, fundamentally you could drive the heat
               | pump by a little gas turbine, or bridge the gap with a
               | gas powered generator.
        
               | theteapot wrote:
               | Combined Heat and Power (CHP) is big in Europe.
        
               | exe34 wrote:
               | What I had in mind was that heating and cooling using an
               | air-conditioner, a fridge or a "heat pump" is
               | fundamentally the same thing, and electricity is just one
               | way of driving it. Ultimately you have a gas that you
               | compress to release heat (outside for AC, inside for heat
               | pump), which then expands (inside for A/C, outside for a
               | heat pump). The compressor can run off a pedal bike for
               | all it cares.
        
             | david422 wrote:
             | I think you are back to where you started. If it was
             | cheaper to use gas to run a heat pump then everybody would
             | just run generators in their houses off of gas instead of
             | using electrical lines.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | That has been proposed. Well the proposal was to run a
               | small engine powering a generator, then you cool the
               | engine to heat the house, while the electric is sold (or
               | otherwise powers the house). However modern gas furnaces
               | are > 90% efficient and it is hard to get an engine that
               | efficient for heat (remember the engine will be running
               | indoors so it needs to not fill the house with noise of
               | CO). I think no matter how you look at it, you can't make
               | this system more efficient than just using the furnace to
               | generate heat without the engine.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | _> I think no matter how you look at it, you can 't make
               | this system more efficient than just using the furnace to
               | generate heat without the engine._
               | 
               | I don't think that's right: look at micro-CHP (Combined
               | Heat and Power) systems: they run an engine to generate
               | electricity, and then capture the heat for heating. I
               | don't think you can get them for residential in the US
               | though.
        
               | jhallenworld wrote:
               | Honda sold one for the US, but it didn't catch on or
               | something:
               | 
               | Well I found this, they used the heat for hot water:
               | 
               | https://global.honda/en/newsroom/news/2012/p120925eng.htm
               | l
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | In MA this actually does work at first glance: a 23%
               | efficient Generac 7171 is rated for 9kW at full output on
               | natural gas, and uses 127 ft3/hr (1.37 therms). This is
               | $0.30/kWh at $2/therm, compared to the $0.323/kWh I pay
               | the power company. If you were doing this for real you'd
               | put in the work to find something more efficient than
               | this unit, which would then be enough to make up for the
               | cost of the generator and the maintenance.
               | 
               | Except it's not legal to do this, and even if it were
               | there'd be a lot of hassle.
        
             | dahinds wrote:
             | Gas fired heat pumps do exist, they're called absorption
             | heat pumps.
             | 
             | https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/absorption-heat-pumps
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | This is how you can have propane powered refrigerators.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | Utilities cost excesses in California are largely PG&E paying
           | for its liability for causing wildfires in places where
           | people probably shouldn't live anyway.
           | 
           | For example Silicon Valley Power which serves Santa Clara (or
           | something like that) has rates that are literally half as
           | much as PG&E.
           | 
           | In Minnesota I'm paying for Xcel Energy's mistakes in Texas.
        
           | gnicholas wrote:
           | > _stop the attacks on solar installation_
           | 
           | I've not heard of any attacks, just reductions in subsidies
           | (tax credits, net metering). Can you share what you're
           | referring to?
        
             | TheOsiris wrote:
             | isn't that an attack? removing/reducing subsidies removes
             | incentives for people to install more solar
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | I don't generally view the removal of subsidies as being
               | "attacks". I view that as the end of the free money.
        
               | janpieterz wrote:
               | Depends how you see it. If you assume a neutral state of
               | no incentives, adding benefits to stimulate growth and
               | later removing this benefits once growth is achieved can
               | be seen as "attacking this positive state" or simply
               | "bringing back to neutral".
               | 
               | I moved to SoCal recently and didn't realize things like
               | net metering even existed, so when people started to rant
               | about these new measures I was very surprised to learn
               | about them, and especially about people presuming these
               | things to be "normal".
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | > _when people started to rant about these new measures I
               | was very surprised to learn about them, and especially
               | about people presuming these things to be "normal"._
               | 
               | I think at first people were (reasonably) scared that net
               | metering might go away with no grandfathering for
               | existing installations. People had a reasonable reliance
               | interest in maintaining at least some of their existing
               | benefits for the payoff period of their panels.
               | 
               | Once it was clear that existing installations would be
               | grandfathered, I didn't hear much ranting anymore -- just
               | people who were bummed that a subsidy was going away (or
               | people rushing to get in under the wire).
        
             | what_ever wrote:
             | Is net metering a subsidy?
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Absolutely.
               | 
               | If a customer is permitted to buy as much electricity as
               | they want at a fixed price while also being able to sell
               | as much as they can at a different time at a fixed price,
               | it seems like there's an obvious subsidy happening
               | anytime they sell electricity at other than when the
               | wholesale price is the highest or buy other than when the
               | wholesale price is lowest. (In areas with an excess of
               | solar generation capacity, these distortions become quite
               | large.)
               | 
               | (I'm still all for these subsidies on the balance of
               | factors; we just shouldn't pretend that they're not
               | subsidies.)
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | If few people use net metering it's kind of fair. Your
               | solar installation generates electricity, any excess gets
               | delivered to your neighbors. The electricity is providing
               | the infrastructure for that without making any money on
               | that specific transaction (it gets deducted from your
               | meter and added to your neighbors' meter), but that's
               | easy enough to account for in base fees.
               | 
               | The issues start if too many people do net metering.
               | Imagine everyone has a solar roof and reaches net-zero
               | electricity. You can still maintain the infrastructure
               | with base fees, but the electricity company still has to
               | run power plants in the morning and evening when demand
               | outstrips solar supply, and for baseload in the night.
               | And during the day there's now an oversupply of
               | electricity that they somehow have to sell.
               | 
               | In commercial electricity generation many countries have
               | a kind of spot market for electricity, where prices are
               | determined by demand (down to the minute) and available
               | supply. Prices can go close to zero if lots of solar and
               | wind capacity is available, or far above the price
               | charged to consumer for capacity to cover the evening
               | peak. If we changed consumer prices to more accurately
               | reflected this "true" market price (plus markup for the
               | grid operator), with prices changing by the minute, net
               | metering would be pretty fair. But so far there's little
               | desire to dump all that complexity on regular consumers.
        
               | Jochim wrote:
               | > Prices can go close to zero if lots of solar and wind
               | capacity is available
               | 
               | Negative prices aren't uncommon during quiet periods in
               | the summer.
        
               | secabeen wrote:
               | > You can still maintain the infrastructure with base
               | fees
               | 
               | In theory yes, but the grid has not used properly scoped
               | base fees to pay for infrastructure. Delivery costs of
               | power are more than half the total cost; to get to a
               | base+generation model, you'd probably see monthly
               | connection fees for Electricity in the $100+ range for
               | many Americans.
        
               | jrockway wrote:
               | I don't think there's any obligation for people's
               | financial trickery to be sustainable. Like, a new power
               | pole costs (say) $1000 regardless of how many watts are
               | going through the wires attached to it. Someone has to
               | pay the person that cut down the tree and hauled it to
               | its final location money. That they loan you money on the
               | infrastructure and you repay through using electricity
               | isn't the actual cost model, it's just a pricing model
               | people are OK with. When it stops working, the model will
               | have to change.
               | 
               | I always laughed about the pricing structure of the
               | business ISP that I worked at. We charged $1000 to
               | install your service, then $1000 per month (without a
               | contract). This was a financial game; we would lose money
               | if you cancelled after your first month. I always thought
               | the pricing should be $15,000 to install, and then $5 per
               | month. That's closer to what the actual costs are. But
               | instead of you going to the bank to get a loan to pay the
               | $15,000, we hid that for you. It made more people sign
               | up, and we had a better source of funding than bank
               | loans. But, at the end of the day, we would have been out
               | of business if a bunch of people signed up and didn't
               | pay. If that happened, I imagine the pricing would have
               | changed to reflect actual costs.
        
             | KptMarchewa wrote:
             | Removing those subsidies while keeping fossil fuel ones is
             | kind of attack.
        
             | SECProto wrote:
             | All electricity generation throughout the US is subsidized
             | in various ways already - eg low interest loans for new
             | generation capacity, programs for low income earners, not
             | (or not effectively) charging for carbon and methane
             | emissions, low fuel taxes on sources used for electricity
             | generation. The "subsidies" you list help make a desirable
             | energy source compete on a more level playing field -
             | matching benefits that competing energy sources already
             | receive.
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | My understanding is that when utilities buy energy from
               | solar farms, they do so based on the demand and available
               | supply, meaning that solar farms get paid more or less
               | depending on these factors. But with net metering for
               | residential solar installations, utilities are buying
               | independent of supply/demand, which gives the residents a
               | subsidy even vis-a-vis other solar producers.
               | 
               | I understand that all kinds of energy production methods
               | are subsidized, but if net metering lets residential
               | solar owners get paid more for the energy they produce
               | than solar farms would be paid, I don't see how that's
               | anything but a subsidy.
        
               | SECProto wrote:
               | There are all kinds of complications - commercial solar
               | isn't dispatchable so it does tend to get lower rates
               | than most other sources. In my jurisdiction residential
               | (net metering) customers are only allowed to install a
               | certain numbers of panels - corresponding with household
               | energy consumption and assumed production levels (i.e.
               | your monthly bill will never be negative - at lowest
               | you'll be paying distribution charges and 0 for
               | consumption). With low levels of residential solar
               | installation, locally installed panels can help balance
               | the grid as it is consumed on distribution lines and
               | doesnt need transmission lines (conversely, high levels
               | can unbalance the grid).
               | 
               | > if net metering lets residential solar owners get paid
               | more for the energy they produce than solar farms would
               | be paid, I don't see how that's anything but a subsidy.
               | 
               | Paying them nothing would be even more unfair (and that's
               | the only option available where I am at least - net
               | metering or no household generation)
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | > _Paying them nothing would be even more unfair (and
               | that 's the only option available where I am at least -
               | net metering or no household generation)_
               | 
               | I wasn't suggesting this. The phased rollback of net
               | metering in California (the state mentioned in my
               | original parent comment as "attacking" solar
               | installation) means that solar owners will still get
               | paid, just not as much as before. I'm sorry that you live
               | somewhere that this middle option isn't available -- the
               | two extremes are indeed less fair!
        
               | beembeem wrote:
               | The "phased rollback of net metering" is a bit more
               | extreme than you suggest. Have you heard of income-based
               | billing? [1]
               | 
               | [1] https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/working-for-
               | you/sdge...
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | I have heard of income-based billing, but that will apply
               | regardless of whether you own solar panels. Also, some
               | legislators are trying to repeal it before it goes into
               | effect. [1-2]
               | 
               | 1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-progressive-california-
               | epipha...
               | 
               | 2: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39320388#39320860
        
               | SECProto wrote:
               | > phased rollback of net metering in California
               | 
               | Thank you for this clarification - I thought the
               | discussion about changes to net metering was general, not
               | California specific. Reading [1] about the changes to net
               | metering in California, it seems reasonable, especially
               | as it has high solar penetration. Hopefully it will (like
               | many things) lead the way so that load shifting becomes
               | simpler/more economical throughout North America.
               | 
               | [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/08/18/decoding-the-
               | changes-to...
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Most US solar farms have a power purchase agreement
               | that's independent of real time market prices. Solar
               | farms agree because being paid 2c/kWh or whatever for the
               | first X years guarantees they can repay all loans.
               | Utilities agree because it's guaranteed to save them
               | money.
               | 
               | Those power purchase agreements then makes it really easy
               | to get loans.
        
             | WarOnPrivacy wrote:
             | > > stop the attacks on solar installation
             | 
             | > I've not heard of any attacks, just reductions in
             | subsidies. Can you share what you're referring to?
             | 
             | I do appreciate a softball.
             | 
             | https://duckduckgo.com/?va=c&t=he&q=political+attacks+on+so
             | l...
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | I guess you didn't actually click through to the links;
               | they refer to windmills, solar panel pricing issues in SE
               | Asia, and various other topics (I'm sure some links
               | involve the CA govt attacking solar, but the first
               | several didn't). Maybe next time you can post a couple
               | links that you've actually read, instead of just giving
               | the impression that there are scads of attacks at your
               | fingertips?
        
             | bagels wrote:
             | California specific: income based minimum pricing, and
             | 'wholesale' pricing for power sent to the grid.
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | Income-based base billing is indeed terrible, but it is
               | not an attack on solar. You'd pay it whether you have
               | panels or not. Also, legislators have apparently come to
               | their senses and are looking to repeal it. [1-2] As for
               | the pricing for power sent to the grid, I did mention the
               | changes to net metering, which offer grandfathering for
               | existing installations.
               | 
               | 1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-progressive-california-
               | epipha...
               | 
               | 2: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39320388#39320860
        
             | brlewis wrote:
             | I'm not the OP, but probably https://pv-magazine-
             | usa.com/2024/01/30/arizona-proposes-sola...
        
               | gnicholas wrote:
               | OP was complaining about CA, and this appears to be an
               | proposed law in AZ. It could affect CA utility prices
               | because it relates to export, but it's not up to CA to
               | decide what laws are passed in another state, governing
               | the usage of land in that state.
        
           | GenerWork wrote:
           | >If California is serious about this, they need to reign in
           | the utilities
           | 
           | Why would they reign in one of the best ways to ensure that
           | Calpers remains solvent?
        
           | gregwebs wrote:
           | There are second order effects from natural gas use in an
           | actual furnace that aren't taken into account in price of
           | energy comparisons. A furnace has to either
           | 
           | 1) exhaust out air initially drawn from the house which must
           | be replaced by cold outdoor air coming into the house (this
           | requires more heating of the house) 2) take in fresh cold air
           | for combustion and exhaust that (which requires extra energy
           | to heat up the cold air)
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | All modern furnaces I've seen take #2 - use air from
             | outside. Despite that they can get to 99% efficient. It
             | doesn't take much energy to heat up that cold air.
        
               | giobox wrote:
               | My experience in the US at least is that its not uncommon
               | for the furnace air intake to draw air from inside the
               | house (my last two homes in PNW as one example).
        
               | zbrozek wrote:
               | California resident here. Both of my last two places with
               | gas furnaces combust unconditioned air.
        
               | CaliforniaKarl wrote:
               | The furnace my parents (who live in Ohio) installed 10+
               | years ago uses outside air for combustion, not
               | conditioned inside air. As it's older, it's not got a 99
               | AFUE, but it's high (I think in the low 90s).
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | That used to be very common in the US, and there are a
               | lot of old systems still working. However every new
               | furnace I've seen is installed to use outside air. Using
               | outside air needs $100 more in parts and labor and it
               | prevents air balance issues in modern well sealed houses.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | You could get high efficiency with a furnace that uses
               | inside air, but they're basically no longer installed.
               | 
               | 20 years ago quite common.
        
           | TheSoftwareGuy wrote:
           | Or, they could increase the price of natural gas (perhaps
           | using a tax)
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | In the continental US you get ~2x the heat from burning
           | natural gas in a combined cycle turbine to run a heat pump
           | than you would from using a high efficiency gas furnace.
           | 
           | The market price of electricity vs gas varies quite a bit
           | through time and various distortions of the market. Currently
           | gas is cheap, but you want to compare historical averages
           | when buying something that lasts 15+ years not simply look at
           | current rates.
        
             | Aloha wrote:
             | I don't think your math adds up.
             | 
             | Combined cycle is like at most 70% efficient, subtract 10%
             | of distribution, you end up with 60%.
             | 
             | At 50f my 5T heat pump takes 6.6 kWh to generate 50,000
             | BTU.
             | 
             | 6 kWh of energy takes 71cf of gas to make - accounting for
             | transmission and generation losses.
             | 
             | 71cf of gas will make 71,000 BTU of heat, assuming an 80%
             | efficiency furnace, that comes out to 56,000 BTU usable.
             | 
             | Yes a heat pump will vastly outperform resistive strip heat
             | - but not even an 80% gas furnace.
        
               | stephen_g wrote:
               | What kind of system do you have that is only giving you
               | (if I've converted the those very confusing units
               | correctly) a COP of 2.2 at 10deg C? That's really very
               | poor... There are air-to-water units that can achieve COP
               | > 4 at 0deg C, and even a good air-to-air should still be
               | over COP 3... I'd expect to see a COP like that at -15deg
               | C or below on a modern unit...
        
           | newZWhoDis wrote:
           | The point you're missing is electricity should never be
           | expensive, if it is then you're doing something very stupid.
        
           | smcleod wrote:
           | Natural gas won't stay cheap. It was cheap here in Australia
           | 10 years ago and now it's so expensive no one can afford to
           | run gas heating and it's only going up. Now (thankfully) the
           | government has banned the installation of new gas heating and
           | a lot of people are getting rid of gas cooking, hot water
           | heating etc... it's for the best.
        
             | maxglute wrote:
             | I remember a recent investor report posted on HN about
             | declining health of permian basin, and the economics of
             | extraction will increasingly not make sense in 10 years.
             | Seems like no brainer if shale and by connection LNG is on
             | way out. Might also explain Biden stalling LNG expansions
             | especially with NATO on the hook, maybe it's cynical
             | electioneering to his base, but maybe the future of cheap
             | US LNG is not bright vs renewables.
        
           | Areading314 wrote:
           | Solar isn't a useful source of energy for heating in
           | California, since the demand is almost entirely during winter
           | mornings/evenings where the sun is down.
        
         | oooyay wrote:
         | Yeah, I made this mistake this year. I pumped $20k into a heat
         | pump system, coming from what used to be Natural Gas. I wasn't
         | given any kind of relief because I live in Oregon where most
         | relief is income based. Then at the beginning of the year PGE
         | announced a 20% rate hike. My house is covered in trees, so
         | solar isn't really an option. I really regretted my decision
         | once I got a $300-$400 bill for heating three months in a row.
         | In the summer I now have AC where I didn't at all before, but
         | it hardly makes up for the cost of a heat pump during winter. I
         | probably won't be doing any of these kinds programs again.
        
           | jdeibele wrote:
           | I'm moving from Portland to McMinnville in a couple of
           | months. Price of kwh goes from $.1945/kwh to about $.0720.
           | I've noticed that McMinnville Water & Light doesn't help pay
           | for EV connections, etc. compared to Portland General
           | Electric but at almost 1/3rd the cost, they probably don't
           | need to.
           | 
           | MW&L is community-owned, PGE is traded on the NYSE. They both
           | buy a ton of hydro from the Bonneville Power Administration.
           | 
           | https://findenergy.com/providers/mcminnville-water-and-
           | light... gives an average. Actual per kwh rate is cheaper but
           | there's a $16.10 customer charge to have an account.
           | https://www.mc-power.com/wordpress/wp-
           | content/uploads/pdf/ra...
           | 
           | https://portlandgeneral.com/about/info/pricing-plans
        
           | newZWhoDis wrote:
           | $20k for a heat pump is sky high, you better have gotten a 24
           | SEER2 state of the art fully variable system for that.
           | 
           | If they sold you a 14 SEER1 for that then you got absolutely
           | screwed.
        
         | theteapot wrote:
         | > Heat pumps do work into freezing New England temperatures,
         | but they're a bit less efficient as it gets to zero fahrenheit.
         | 
         | What's the temperature in the ground? Did you look at a ground
         | source heat pump
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_source_heat_pump)
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | I have - the cost of installing such a system makes it
           | questionable if it will ever be worth it. I've seen a few
           | places that have it and they work great year round and are
           | cheap to operate. However the payoff from the install if 50+
           | years despite the cheap costs. Everyone hopes the install
           | lasts that long, but a lot can go wrong in 50 years. (the
           | equipment probably won't last 50 years, but that will be
           | cheap enough to replaces, it is the pipes in the ground that
           | better last 50 years)
        
             | htek wrote:
             | A large chunk of cost is drilling the holes for the loop.
             | New, compact drilling rigs that use 10' drill sections are
             | a good deal cheaper to run labor-wise and require less
             | space to maneuver. Costs will come down as more companies
             | switch to these rigs.
        
               | martythemaniak wrote:
               | What are some examples of these new drilling rigs?
        
           | aurizon wrote:
           | The big cost for ground source HP, is the large area you have
           | to dig with 4 foot deep trenches. I have seen one where the
           | installer digs 2 trenches about 16 feet apart and 30 feet
           | long down to 6 feet. They then use a soil drill to make about
           | 50-60 holes between the trenches and insert 17 foot plastic
           | pipes(1 inch diameter) They then connect the pipes on each
           | side to a common pipe(3"), all well sealed ABS pipes below
           | the frost line. This allow for a large volume of coupled and
           | warm(55 degrees) that the heat pump extracts/deposits heat as
           | needed for heating/cooling the home. This drilling is a lot
           | cheaper than a dozen or more 3 foot trenchs for the water
           | loops.
        
         | xutopia wrote:
         | I'm in Canada and we have heat pumps with secondary heat
         | sources for when it gets really cold. Mine is with gas.
        
           | jefftk wrote:
           | These sorts of programs generally require you to disable your
           | existing heating system, and don't allow you to run it only
           | in warmer weather.
           | 
           | Ex, Massachusetts: https://www.masssave.com/-/media/Files/PDF
           | s/Save/Residential...
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | Note that's for the whole home $10K rebate only. For the
             | per-ton rebate, you can leave the existing fossil fueled
             | appliance installed and connected. (It's also new for 2024;
             | the 2023 rules allowed you to leave the appliance in to be
             | used for supplemental heat during extreme cold or during an
             | equipment outage. https://www.masssave.com/-/media/Files/PD
             | Fs/Save/Residential... )
        
           | fnbr wrote:
           | Yup, me too. And with my Nest thermostat, I can manually
           | configure the crossover point. I did so at the economic
           | balance point (where the heat pump is cheaper than my gas
           | furnace).
        
         | jefftk wrote:
         | That's right. In MA I'm paying a marginal $0.316/kWh for
         | electric and $1.999/therm for natural gas, heating a two-family
         | 10-person building. Switching to a heat pump would be an
         | additional $1k/y in heating costs, and that's ignoring the cost
         | of the system (which is substantial even after the $20k MA
         | subsidy this article discusses).
         | 
         | More: https://www.jefftk.com/p/running-the-numbers-on-a-heat-
         | pump
        
         | 1minusp wrote:
         | Large drilling costs from where I am in the south due to ground
         | being mostly (lime?)stone: makes it cost-infeasbile. Other
         | areas might have it easier though.
        
         | thelastgallon wrote:
         | If electricity is costly, it makes sense to put solar panels.
         | Consolidate all energy (transportation - EV, HVAC - electric,
         | induction stove, heat pump water heater), put solar panels, and
         | wipe off all energy bills. Every household can save $400 - $800
         | on utility bills.
        
           | lotsoweiners wrote:
           | I'm not in New England but I'm imagining that the cold
           | winters there are accompanied but plenty of cloudy skies as
           | well. In that case solar might not be a great option.
        
         | taude wrote:
         | Also, doesn't states like MA import a not-insignificant amount
         | of natural gas from elsewhere to convert to electricity? Would
         | like to hear about what's more efficient: direct natural gas
         | heating vs natural gas -> electricity -> heat pump...
        
           | twoodfin wrote:
           | Yes, and for nominally climate-driven reasons MA has
           | constrained the construction of pipelines and other
           | facilities that would allow the cheaper delivery of natural
           | gas for cheaper electricity... thus discouraging consumers
           | like me from moving to electrical utilities that would net
           | reduce emissions.
        
         | deepsun wrote:
         | Why wouldn't heat pump work on gas?
         | 
         | It's already done -- RV fridges work on propane directly,
         | without converting it to electricity. A fridge is a heat pump.
        
           | RandallBrown wrote:
           | Apparently they do, but they're not common for houses yet.
           | 
           | https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/absorption-heat-pumps
        
       | jwells89 wrote:
       | I have an aging gas furnace that's about due for replacement and
       | a heat pump may be in the cards.
       | 
       | Something I'll need to research is how a heat pump would compare
       | to electric heated flooring, though because the way my house's
       | HVAC system is set up the upper floor is heated before the lower
       | floor, which exacerbates the natural temperature difference that
       | results from heat rising and means the lower floor can be chilly
       | while the upper floor is warm. My AC is fairly new still too
       | which makes me think that installing heated floor in the base
       | floor, letting heat rise to heat the upper floor with the old
       | furnace remaining as a backup might be smarter.
       | 
       | Electricity costs aren't too bad here ($0.10-$0.14/kWh) so
       | switching from consuming gas to consuming electricity won't
       | impact bills too much.
        
         | sgc wrote:
         | You can do both. For example:
         | https://www.arcticheatpumps.com/radiant-floor-heating-with-h...
        
           | jwells89 wrote:
           | Had heard of this and it's cool, but would involve tossing my
           | still-good AC unit which doesn't feel great unless the
           | installer offers trade-ins or something (which doesn't seem
           | likely).
           | 
           | Will consider going with a heat pump nonetheless.
        
       | mypgovroom wrote:
       | Eh I don't hate heat pumps, but they are not the answer
        
         | progman32 wrote:
         | Answer to what?
        
       | billfor wrote:
       | Has anyone found a good way to control all the features of a heat
       | pump with home automation? I've been lookin at Daikin and
       | Mitsubishi but Daikin no longer has an open api and I don't see
       | much on Mitubishi. It seems like every heat pump comes with its
       | own proprietary remote, and the thermostats and Wi-Fi modules (if
       | available) don't integrate well.
        
         | qmarchi wrote:
         | I have a suite of LG Minisplits installed in my apartment.
         | While there isn't a distinctly open API, there's an integration
         | that you can add to Home Assistant for access to the platform.
         | 
         | From there, I've got a few automations including:
         | - Automatically turning off "conflicting" units (Heat vs Cool)
         | - Schedules (set bedroom to cool at night) and "Away" modes
         | - Temperature overrides using custom built temperature sensors
         | (BME280 to the rescue)       - Access and control via voice
         | (via Google Assistants)
         | 
         | Unfortunately, the integration is reliant on the cloud, but you
         | can connect a "traditional" relay based thermostat to them as
         | well (with the loss of variable load control for the outside
         | unit).
        
         | thebestmoshe wrote:
         | I'm in the same boat as you. As far as I can tell the only
         | option is something like Sensibo, which uses IR.
         | 
         | I would love to know if there is a better way to do this.
        
       | callalex wrote:
       | Every home in America should have a Heat Recovery Ventilator.
       | They are extremely simple mechanically, yet because of their
       | rarity they are still way to expensive to justify the cost
       | instead of just opening a window. Policy could help a lot here.
        
       | newhotelowner wrote:
       | We use PTAC at the hotel and we only buy with a heat pump. It
       | reduces electricity bills significantly in winter. It's not a new
       | tech, but it has gotten more efficient over the years.
       | 
       | I am surprised that all these companies are charging arms and
       | legs for heat pump units. PTAC is about $100 extra if you get it
       | with a heat pump.
       | 
       | If you don't have access to natural gas, heat pump water will
       | save you a lot in winter.
        
       | readams wrote:
       | I recently had to replace my air conditioner, and I looked into a
       | heat pump, which in theory should be almost the same thing as an
       | air conditioner, but it was so much more expensive than the AC
       | that it was impossible to justify.
        
       | photonbeam wrote:
       | Need to bring down electricity prices for this to be viable in
       | many places
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | I looked into heat pumps in north east - didn't make any sense
       | financially given cost of installation. break even was 10+ years.
       | With that timeline I might as well wait.
        
       | ursuscamp wrote:
       | As always with these things, if they actually increase the value
       | for home-owners, then people will naturally begin to select them
       | on their own over time. However, if they do not increase value,
       | then you will just be hamstringing your state by forcing people
       | to use inferior products.
        
       | freetime2 wrote:
       | I hear a lot of horror stories on HN every time the subject of
       | heat pumps comes up. Things like high costs, units not defrosting
       | properly in winter, etc. Most of these stories tend to be for
       | central air conditioning units.
       | 
       | I think that mini-splits could be a much better introduction to
       | heat pumps for a lot of folks. They are cheap, easy to install,
       | and the units in my house have been running 12 years as our only
       | source of heating/cooling with zero maintenance. (The
       | manufacturer recommends replacing after 10 years, but they are
       | still working fine). This is in an area where we get a lot of
       | snow in winter, but temps almost never fall below -10c.
       | 
       | And you can keep your existing furnace as a backup or secondary
       | heat source.
        
         | exitzer0 wrote:
         | Mini-splits seem like they are the future for the value
         | conscious and light-weight DIY crowd.
         | 
         | These systems are quite simple in design and implementation
         | while also offering a pretty effective way to control
         | temperature in a zoned way in various parts of the house. They
         | also can be had in 120V sizes making them far easier to
         | accomidate for solar-powered households, etc.
        
         | bamboozled wrote:
         | I run mine in a similar climate to what you're describing. Air
         | based, not ground or water. Absolutely zero problems at all.
         | 
         | Either I have some magic heat pump or a lot of the horror
         | stories are overblown or based on using out of date technology.
        
       | stainablesteel wrote:
       | those states specifically? every time they do something in unison
       | it turns out bad imo
        
       | JustLurking2022 wrote:
       | The only thing stopping me from buying a great pump is how
       | unreliable the power grid is in my area. Lines are above ground,
       | with numerous trees overhanging them so a snow storm is high risk
       | for a power outage at a time I can least afford it, as road
       | conditions may prevent seeking shelter elsewhere. Conversely,
       | with a furnace and a small generator to run the blower, I can
       | keep heat on through a couple days without power.
        
       | torpid wrote:
       | I live in an old furniture factory converted into lofts. LEED
       | certified of course, with mini splits instead of forced air in
       | each unit. This is in the midwest.
       | 
       | For the past 11 years, every season it's failed to maintain
       | minimum temperature of 68 degrees when it hits below 5 degrees
       | outside, or maintain cooling in the summer. Another adjacent
       | building built 2 years after this one with the exact same setup,
       | same story. The complex had resorted to providing residents
       | temporary space heaters up until this year where now they are
       | prohibited by the city from using it to maintain minimum temps
       | thanks to changing the code.
       | 
       | The sheer amount of costs associated they've dumped into the
       | maintenance of this mini split system, along with the electricity
       | costs (electricity is included with rent) is mind boggling and
       | certainly will offset any gains.
        
         | jrockway wrote:
         | Emergency heat was under-installed. In the midwest, you have to
         | have it, and it will suck down a ton of electricity for the
         | handful of days a year you need it. Being entirely reliant on
         | mini-splits without resistive emergency heating is a very
         | strange choice, and it's not what heat pump advocates are
         | recommending.
         | 
         | The idea behind heat pumps is to eliminate the need for the
         | natural gas distribution infrastructure. As the infrastructure
         | ages, more pipes will crack (emitting greenhouse gasses, not to
         | mention blowing up), and the cost will go up. Meanwhile, more
         | renewable electricity is coming online, driving the cost down.
         | (It is a much harder problem to replace every gas furnace in
         | the US versus replacing every power plant in the US. That's why
         | the process is starting early with "hey, maybe you don't want
         | to replace your furnace".)
         | 
         | Right now, it probably doesn't make a lot of sense to have a
         | heat pump for the average midwestern house unless you have a
         | pretty big solar installation. But in the future, the day will
         | come where "we're going to pipe explosive gas into your house"
         | is simply not done anymore. That will come in the form of gas
         | companies not being able to maintain their infrastructure at
         | the prices they charge, declining fossil fuel reserves,
         | international demand to lower emissions, etc. It's not a crisis
         | today, but today is not a bad day to start looking towards the
         | future.
         | 
         | (I'm looking forward to replacing my gas stove with an
         | induction stove. CO2 levels are through the roof whenever I
         | cook to the point I have to open windows. I don't need to be
         | breathing all of that.)
        
           | clhodapp wrote:
           | Aren't space heaters and emergency heat essentially the same
           | thing? It seems strange for the city to ban space heaters
           | when they really ought not to be worse than any other
           | resistive heater
        
           | waynesonfire wrote:
           | > it's not what heat pump advocates are recommending.
           | 
           | sure seems like someone is. could it possibly be the heat
           | pump salesmen? the idea behind heat pumps is to sell heat
           | pumps.
           | 
           | In the event you're cold, maybe you should get a furnace too.
           | But that wasn't part of the sales pitch. Regardless, there
           | are now two appliances you have to maintain. Tell me again
           | how much money this saves?
        
             | NewJazz wrote:
             | _Tell me again how much money this saves?_
             | 
             | Who said that was the goal?
        
         | worik wrote:
         | What are "mini splits "?
        
         | Whatarethese wrote:
         | Sounds like some pretty poor planning. Modern heat pumps
         | including the ones that I'm familiar with work down to around
         | -5F. They aren't very efficient obviously at that low temp but
         | mine also has a resistive backup that fires up if needed.
        
       | bamboozled wrote:
       | It's so strange why we're doing all this now. Why not 20 years
       | ago?
       | 
       | Better late than never but it's a shame...
        
       | switch007 wrote:
       | I don't have a good feeling about retrofitted heat pumps at all.
       | The government is pushing too hard.
       | 
       | In the UK we have poor insulation, noise concerns (dwellings very
       | close together), high electricity rates, periods of sub zero
       | temperatures in winter and from what I can gather a lack of
       | skilled fitters in this space.
       | 
       | All together it doesn't make a convincing argument
       | 
       | Plus all the comments here about broken systems, high electricity
       | costs, inadequate temperatures etc doesn't fill me with hope
       | 
       | Yes I've heard every rebuttal ("but Nordics", "your fitter was
       | bad", "you under specced", "you over specced" etc)
       | 
       | Building code should have solved insulation issues decades ago.
       | Heat Recovery systems etc instead of relying on drilling holes in
       | to window frames as the primary source of ventilation
        
       | nelblu wrote:
       | I have mixed feelings about heat pumps. Where we live winters
       | aren't too harsh - our coldest night would be around -18C and for
       | the most part January/February hovers around -10C at night. Our
       | main heating is oil-based hot water baseboard radiator which I
       | think is THE BEST type of heating solution from comfort
       | standpoint. But few years ago we installed two mini-split heat-
       | pumps which work great and save us a ton of money - BUT they
       | don't heat the house evenly and you must leave all indoor doors
       | open for effective heating. There is an option to convert the
       | main heating to a geothermal heat-pump heating up the water but
       | that is quite an expensive solution right now. For now I am never
       | giving up oil in the foreseeable future.
        
         | smcleod wrote:
         | -18C is very cold!
        
         | bouncing wrote:
         | FWIW you can also get heat pumps that feed into regular central
         | heating. The split units are nice because you can heat
         | different rooms to your liking but if you prefer a central
         | approach, that's also possible, just like it is with a furnace.
        
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