[HN Gopher] An extreme ice-age climate 700M years ago
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       An extreme ice-age climate 700M years ago
        
       Author : belter
       Score  : 79 points
       Date   : 2024-02-09 14:54 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (astrobiology.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (astrobiology.com)
        
       | dangrossman wrote:
       | (Of course) there's a startup trying to commercialize this
       | process. Lithos pays farmers to spread crushed volcanic rock on
       | their farm fields to absorb atmospheric CO2, and then sells
       | carbon capture credits to companies like Stripe, Alphabet,
       | Shopify and Meta.
       | 
       | https://www.lithoscarbon.com/
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | In my semi-informed opinion, this approach is the most likely
         | to yield substantial CO2 reductions in the first half of the
         | century. While industry is greening, the process is slow on the
         | timescales required to arrest climate change. Industrial
         | acceleration of existing carbon capture processes seem much
         | more likely to yield results, in the latter portion of the
         | century - carbon capture will still be useful to _lower_
         | atmospheric CO2.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | Electricity decarbonization is the single most impactful
           | thing anyone can do right now. But a large margin.
           | 
           | Transportation decarbonization is the second most impactful
           | thing. And anything else comes far behind those two.
           | 
           | That said, just because some action isn't on the top 2, it
           | isn't reason to stop doing it. And besides, yes, we will need
           | to reduce the atmospheric CO2 at the second half of the
           | century, and this is probably what will yield results
           | fastest. It's all the better if we just start right now.
        
             | staplers wrote:
             | Always refreshing to see someone with their facts straight.
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | Electricity decarbonization won't occur in the amount
             | required prior to 2060. We're still building net-new coal
             | plants, and existing coal plants will be allowed to
             | continue operating. The baseline load/peak load problem of
             | renewables has yet to be solved (but progress is being
             | made).
             | 
             | I can see a world where _globally_ the typical transit is a
             | BEV for heavy equipment, transit, and _some_ shipping all
             | charged by renewables sometime in 2070-2080. However the
             | lifetimes on gas cars, heavy equipment, and power plants
             | being built _today_ range from 20-50 years. We are unlikely
             | to force early retirement of that infrastructure at a
             | global scale within the next 20 years.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > We're still building net-new coal plants
               | 
               | I wonder about that. Will they be subsidized? At the same
               | time are also closing down functional coal plants because
               | their operational cost can't be recouped now that they
               | compete with renewables.
               | 
               | (Yeah, in all likelihood, everybody involved is actively
               | refusing to think and talk about that on the hopes that
               | they will have left this job by then. And the people
               | putting money there are probably trying to sell their
               | shares away to another loser before it.)
               | 
               | Any way you cut it, those new coal plants will only get
               | operational at all if people decide to constantly burn
               | some money in them.
               | 
               | > However the lifetimes on gas cars, heavy equipment, and
               | power plants being built today range from 20-50 years.
               | 
               | Yes, and that means we can replace up to 5% of our
               | transportation emissions by year without increasing our
               | capital depreciation. That is in stark contrast to the
               | norm in that you are supposed to do some net investment
               | to adapt to any random change.
               | 
               | If you decide (by regulation, morality, or whatever) to
               | actually sink money on the change, you can get there much
               | faster.
        
               | vondur wrote:
               | I'm thinking the Coal plants will be built in newly
               | industrializing economies, as it's the cheapest way to
               | provide constant cheap power. China is still building
               | Coal Power plants and so is India. The US hasn't built
               | one in a decade and is closing existing ones.
        
               | bamboozled wrote:
               | Renewables are cheaper than coal ?
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | It's complicated. But Coal can not survive in a market
               | where both renewables and natural gas exist. The same
               | applies to nuclear.
               | 
               | When they are producing energy, renewables are about an
               | order of magnitude cheaper than coal (and falling).
        
               | elbasti wrote:
               | Unfortunately, you're both right.
               | 
               | Decarbonization _is_ the best thing to do by a large
               | margin, both in a cost-benefit sense and in a net impact
               | sense. It 's stupid to burn coal to produce $X worth of
               | electricity and then spend many multiples of $X just to
               | remove a tiny fraction of the carbon.
               | 
               | But you're also right that decarbonization won't occur in
               | the amount required by 2060.
               | 
               | Which, quite frankly and plainly, just means we're
               | fucked. Not even going into positive feedback loops of
               | natural methane emissions due to warming arctic and
               | tropics.
        
               | wkat4242 wrote:
               | Yeah when Obama said we're the first generation to feel
               | the effects and the last one able to do anything about
               | it, he was right. One way or another we're locked in now.
               | 
               | Of course there are still options to avoid the worst but
               | they'd require such an immediate turnaround and
               | international collaboration at a time when geopolitical
               | polarization and tensions are ultra high. I just don't
               | see it happening.
        
               | AtlasBarfed wrote:
               | We're about to enter a world where wind solar EV have the
               | clear economic advantage over coal gas ice. Production is
               | semi scaled. And yet it is slow as molasses.
               | 
               | Yet the carbon capture people think a cost line item no
               | advantage except regulatory requirement will scale out
               | faster? Yeah, ok.
               | 
               | Carbon capture and hydrogen cats, science and engineering
               | aside,Val ways trace back to oil and gas media and
               | lobbying. Its just fud at the policy level.
        
               | gwright wrote:
               | > We're about to enter a world where wind solar EV have
               | the clear economic advantage over coal gas ice.
               | 
               | I don't think this is true unless you assume some
               | imminent improvement on grid scale power storage.
               | 
               | News reports about how cheap wind and solar are with
               | supporting data based on levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
               | completely miss the fact that intermittent power sources
               | are not substitutes for base load generation. To approach
               | true substitution you have to include overbuilding the
               | intermittent sources or spending money on very expensive
               | storage systems (that may not even exist yet). In either
               | case the cost goes up considerably.
               | 
               | IMHO:                   * don't turn off nuclear plants
               | * invest in more cost effective nuclear power         *
               | invest in more effective energy storage         * invest
               | in more effective solar/wind         * don't pretend that
               | energy infrastructure can be legislated into existence
        
               | AtlasBarfed wrote:
               | * don't turn off nuclear plants
               | 
               | --- I agree
               | 
               | * invest in more cost effective nuclear power
               | 
               | --- I could diatribe about this a long time, but
               | basically I think solid fuel is a dead end in nuclear
               | plant economics, but the entire industry is focused on
               | solid fuel rod huge pressurized dome. I think truly
               | effective nuclear will take a lot of government
               | investment and novel thinking. Or materials breakthroughs
               | that make LFTR/MSRs cheap.
               | 
               | * invest in more effective energy storage
               | 
               | -- EVs will take care of this, probably sulfur batteries
               | 
               | * don't pretend that energy infrastructure can be
               | legislated into existence
               | 
               | -- it can be subsidized effectively though. See: china.
        
             | adolph wrote:
             | > just because some action isn't on the top 2, it isn't
             | reason to stop doing it
             | 
             | Since you don't quantify a cost-benefit of any action, how
             | have you arrived to this effort ordinality?
             | 
             | Given a ranking, would any efforts in combination have
             | higher impact than a higher ranked effort alone?
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Well, I meant it by cost.
               | 
               | The marginal costs for those top 2 are quite public. For
               | electricity it's negative, electric cars cost some 30%
               | more than normal ones.
               | 
               | They are reasonably easy to estimate for things like
               | spreading carbon-capturing rocks around (or you can use
               | the price of phosphate-rich rocks, it should be similar).
               | It's not a very expensive thing to do, but way more
               | expensive than those 2.
               | 
               | Marginally, there isn't a lot of synergy between those
               | different options. But if you push them to levels much
               | higher than the ones we have now it becomes clear that
               | decarbonizing electricity will become a bottleneck to
               | almost everything.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | > just because some action isn't on the top 2, it isn't
             | reason to stop doing it.
             | 
             | This this isn't wrong, be careful. Many of those proposing
             | action outside of the top two are really trying to distract
             | you from fixing the real problem. Many things outside of
             | the top two need a ton of research before we can fix them -
             | by getting you to spend your time and effort on that
             | research you don't do anything about the top 2 which we can
             | solve today. Thus the entrenched interests (mostly big oil)
             | are pushing you to look at things outside of the top two
             | knowing you can't solve them today, and while you are
             | looking there they can sell more [oil or whatever].
        
               | jjk166 wrote:
               | Conversely, hyper focusing on the top two can also be a
               | distraction. There isn't a single pool of resources and
               | labor that is being managed by a single entity. The
               | people spreading rocks on fields are not the same people
               | building solar panels or producing electric vehicles.
               | Reducing funding spent on carbon capture does not
               | inherently increase the funding for renewables.
               | Researching cleaner concrete manufacturing does not
               | inherently decelerate coal plant phase out. While
               | reducing CO2 emmissions from the two biggest sources
               | would be a huge win, people have been trying to achieve
               | that for decades, and even in the most optimistic
               | scenario it's a battle that will continue for another few
               | decades. In the meantime there is a lot of other stuff
               | that can be worked on in parallel. Waiting around for a
               | silver bullet to solve everything is a great way to get
               | nothing done, and so those who want nothing to get done
               | point out the limitations of various proposals without
               | putting forward options that put those specific resources
               | to better use. Further, when you tell people that
               | everything is insignificant compared to this one great
               | challenge, and that challenge is something that people
               | don't see much rapid progress on, it leads to defeatism -
               | why should I buy an energy efficient heat pump when
               | people on the other side of the world are currently
               | building hundreds of coal plants? Again this is taken
               | advantage of by malicious actors who turn that defeatism
               | into resentment of even trying to make things better.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Well, not on this one case.
               | 
               | Spreading CO2 capturing material is a very viable way to
               | help. And we must research capture anyway, because we
               | surely will need it.
               | 
               | This kind of action is the carbon credit system working
               | like it was supposed to work, and a really good example
               | to use to turn it into a tax that gets negative to
               | whoever is capturing.
               | 
               | But I do agree, one has to always be careful not to fall
               | for polluter's propaganda.
        
             | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
             | I think your top two are somewhere in the top three.
             | 
             | We also need to get to a place, culturally, where we can
             | have calm rational conversations about how many people we
             | can reasonably ask this planet to support. At middling
             | timescales, fewer people is better than greener tech. Some
             | will see that as opting out of progress but there's really
             | a lot of opportunity to offset it by doing a better job of
             | investing in the people we already have.
        
               | proee wrote:
               | Why is this being downvoted? What is the argument for
               | unregulated populations?
        
               | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
               | It's hard to get elected on a "tell people they're not
               | allowed to have kids" platform.
               | 
               | I think there are less heavy handed ways to get us from a
               | place where it's assumed that you'll have kids to a place
               | where it's respected but not encouraged, but when people
               | hear you talking about population growth as a problem to
               | be solved, they immediately assume that you're about to
               | propose something awful.
        
               | bamboozled wrote:
               | It's more likely hard to get get elected by impacting
               | the. Economic growth story? People already having less
               | kids.
        
               | Borg3 wrote:
               | Thats right. Unfortunately, most people have they mindset
               | fixed on never ending growth. We need more people, more
               | cars, more everything. Yet, those people seems to barelly
               | understand basic math and physics. Numbers do NOT lie.
               | All that cool stuff that happened post WWII was because
               | if cheap energy, very cheap. But its going to end. You
               | can either have 10B ppl living in poor conditions or 200M
               | people living in good conditions.
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | > We also need to get to a place, culturally, where we
               | can have calm rational conversations about how many
               | people we can reasonably ask this planet to support.
               | 
               | I disagree, that's a dangerous trap. Oh, sure, it seems
               | reasonable and sagacious at first glance, but that's what
               | makes the eventual misdirection/procrastination so
               | insidious! _Long-term planning is not automatically wise
               | planning._
               | 
               | ________
               | 
               | To illustrate, imagine that:
               | 
               | 1. There's a local park with houses around it.
               | 
               | 2. Some people periodically dump their trash in it.
               | 
               | 3. The trash-piles are getting kind of big and stinky
               | now.
               | 
               | 4. A well-meaning neighbor says: "What we _really_ need
               | is to get a place, as a community, where we can have calm
               | rational conversations bout _how many_ people can live
               | near this park. "
               | 
               | 5. (Bonus) Many of the biggest trash dumpers agree:
               | "Exactly, _literally everybody here_ is to blame, and
               | especially people moving in and /or having too many kids!
               | The only way forward is a very thorough and lengthy
               | symposium with multiple committees to develop
               | recommendations to stop that kind of thing."
               | 
               | ________
               | 
               | In that analogy, it's easier to see that your neighbor's
               | proposal is--er--less than practical, because (A) the
               | immediate problem isn't actually _total_ visitor
               | count,(B) we 'll never reach full consensus, and (C) any
               | consensus number would still meaninglessly unenforceable.
               | 
               | So it can't really help, but it can harm by creating
               | unnecessary discord and will prevent/delay practical
               | changes like "Anything you bring must be taken back out",
               | or "Littering: $X fine."
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | It's punishing the innocent on behalf of the guilty. For
               | some reason people really like to do that, in lots and
               | lots of contexts.
        
             | vlovich123 wrote:
             | I'm not so convinced about the efficacy of transportation
             | decarbonization, at least at the personal EV cars level. It
             | kind of feels the same as when governments in California
             | harp on personal water use and restaurants giving you a
             | glass of water with your meal when the largest consumer of
             | water use by a large margin is industry and farming.
             | 
             | Looking at [1], COVID when probably the most number of
             | people stopped driving and individual energy needs
             | plummeted, our CO2 emissions and fossil fuel energy use
             | dipped marginally. I think the reason is that shipping,
             | airline, and commercial transportation (ie trucks) consume
             | the most and those aren't getting off fossil fuels any time
             | soon. [2] indicates that cars and buses together contribute
             | ~7% to global emissions. Aviation and shipping individually
             | are bigger CO2 emitters than the total amount used by
             | personal vehicles.
             | 
             | Also these reports are hilarious (is that the right word?)
             | to read. They use phase out to mean "no co2 emissions from
             | this sector" while politicians say phase out to mean "no
             | new sales/construction of co2 emitters in this sector".
             | Completely phasing it out will take much much longer.
             | 
             | It's good for us to do the work and cars are a meaningful
             | contributor, but the biggest impact would actually be
             | shipping + aviation + trucking. Unfortunately those are
             | also the hardest problems and the ones EVs won't touch any
             | time soon (maybe trucking but even then I think we're stuck
             | with diesel for quite a while). Shipping probably needs
             | nuclear power and aviation needs some kind of zero emission
             | fuel (hydrogen probably won't cut it). Heck we haven't even
             | removed lead from aviation fuel and that doesn't even
             | require an engine change.
             | 
             | [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
             | 
             | [2] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport
        
               | mnw21cam wrote:
               | > ...restaurants giving you a glass of water with your
               | meal...
               | 
               | Seriously?
               | 
               | The average person in the westernised world probably uses
               | something between 100 to 400 litres of water for washing
               | and flushing per day, _personal use actually in their
               | house_. And drinks around 2 litres in the same amount of
               | time. External water use on behalf of that person for
               | example for growing food and manufacturing things is even
               | more. Having a glass of water wasted at a restaurant is a
               | complete negligible non-issue. How ridiculous.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | Well the generous argument is that the average person
               | isn't eating out so much, but yeah welcome to Californian
               | water culture. It's brain dead because of entrenched
               | farming and industry interests.
               | 
               | They also tell you to cut back on personal usage. But
               | that amounts to 10% compared with agriculture's 40% (used
               | to grow economic crops like alfalfa which we send to
               | China, not food crops) and 50% is lost to the
               | environment.
               | 
               | > Initial water savings came mainly from more efficient
               | indoor plumbing and fixtures; more recent efforts have
               | also focused on reducing outdoor use, which accounts for
               | nearly half of all urban use.
               | 
               | https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | > It kind of feels the same as when governments in
               | California harp on personal water use and restaurants
               | giving you a glass of water with your meal when the
               | largest consumer of water use by a large margin is
               | industry and farming.
               | 
               | Except that it isn't:
               | 
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/1185535/transport-
               | carbon...
               | 
               | > when probably the most number of people stopped driving
               | and individual energy needs plummeted, our CO2 emissions
               | and fossil fuel energy use dipped marginally.
               | 
               | Because the reduction was a percent of half of less than
               | a third of CO2 emissions. People stopped commuting to
               | work but they still went to the store, or had more things
               | delivered from the internet in a giant UPS truck.
               | 
               | > I think the reason is that shipping, airline, and
               | commercial transportation (ie trucks) consume the most
               | and those aren't getting off fossil fuels any time soon.
               | 
               | Why not? Trucks can do in the same way as cars. Rail is
               | the _easiest_ to electrify -- a  "diesel locomotive" is
               | actually an electric locomotive with a diesel generator
               | on it. Add a third rail or electric gantry and you don't
               | need the generator, and put some batteries in the
               | locomotive and you can get by partial coverage. Container
               | ships are predominantly cargo by weight and have some
               | significant leeway in terms of generation methods with a
               | poor energy density -- or you can go the opposite way and
               | use a nuclear reactor as you say.
               | 
               | The hard one is aviation, but it's only ~2% of total CO2
               | emissions and the worst case scenario is biofuels, which
               | would be more expensive but is a known working technology
               | in the absence of any lower cost alternative.
               | 
               | The really hard one is heating in the winter, because
               | it's a large proportion of CO2 emissions but is inversely
               | aligned with solar generation and can't be significantly
               | scaled back on a cold day to account for intermittent
               | generation from wind. That's the thing where nuclear
               | seems like the best option.
               | 
               | But you don't have to solve the hard problems before
               | adopting the known solutions to the easy problems.
        
             | rsynnott wrote:
             | Eh, not sure about those top two. Depends on the
             | circumstances, but in many countries there's _huge_
             | potential to reduce energy use via insulation improvement
             | and that sort of thing.
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | Can it really be that simple? I'll remain skeptical until I
           | see some numbers.
           | 
           | But it would be cool if I could travel to a quarry and crush
           | rocks for a while, and it would actually meaningfully help
           | with the climate.
        
           | mytailorisrich wrote:
           | Carbon capture may be useful, even necessary, but the amounts
           | needed to make any difference means that massive industrial
           | processes are needed.
           | 
           | As a species we emit 35 billion tons of CO2 _per year_. So I
           | would think we 're talking capture in at least the hundreds
           | of millions tons a year range.
        
             | wkat4242 wrote:
             | And also massive amounts of energy and materials required
             | to build all the equipment to do it at that scale, and the
             | land to place it.
             | 
             | I don't see this being viable at a scale that matters until
             | we've solved a lot of other problems first.
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | The material already is somewhere. Why would it need to
               | move?
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | Rocks are very dense. We are extremely good at mining and
             | moving rocks. We produce 30 billion tons of concrete per
             | year.
             | 
             | Naively, you would expect that producing and distributing
             | crushed rocks sufficient to capture carbon would be
             | equivalent to at most 10x the concrete industry. In
             | practice, it's likely closer to 1x.
        
               | GeoAtreides wrote:
               | > Rocks are very dense
               | 
               | Slighty off-topic, but I'm curious: what do you think
               | requires more energy to move, 35 billion tons of steel or
               | 35 billion tons of feathers?[*]
               | 
               | [*] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fC2oke5MFg
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | heh - I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that it
               | takes more vehicle volume to move 35 billion tons of
               | feathers. As Vehicle volume is correlated to vehicle
               | weight, moving feathers will be more expensive :P
               | 
               | but in all seriousness, the correspondence to rocks is
               | beneficial as it's not obvious just how much mass
               | industry moves in 2023. If you add in waste rock at
               | quarries the numbers rise precipitously. A single shovel
               | bucket can move 20 tons.
        
           | _Algernon_ wrote:
           | My just as semi-informed opinion is just the opposite. All
           | the evidence I have seen suggest that carbon credits amount
           | to little more than greenwashing.
           | 
           | There was a discussion just a couple of weeks ago here on HN
           | about a project which gave more efficient cooking stoves and
           | sold the estimated savings in terms of carbon as credits.
           | Only problem was that it massively underestimated the actual
           | carbon saved.
           | 
           | A couple of years ago the Guardian did some investigating
           | where forests which was under no threat of deforestation
           | being sold as carbon credits _as if they had saved the entire
           | forest from deforestation_.
           | 
           | Probably in part confirmation bias, but also I don't think
           | that a fix to a market that has externalities is to ductape
           | it with a new market that has new externalities. That just
           | provides _more_ loopholes for evasion.
           | 
           | Estimating carbon emissions avoided by a project is a messy
           | and subjective process in the best of cases. Even more so
           | when large amounts of capital is at risk.
           | 
           | Currently it looks like companies get the PR benefits of
           | being "net emissions neutral" while the carbon credits they
           | purchased to become so will be shown to be little more than
           | fraud a couple of years later.
        
             | rcxdude wrote:
             | For sure not all carbon credits are created equal, and a
             | lot (especially the cheaper ones) are bunk. For any project
             | which claims to be carbon neutral through purchasing
             | credits, you need to look at what those credits are
             | actually doing and assess whether it is actually removing
             | carbon from the atmosphere or not. Basically don't throw
             | the baby out with the bathwater: most carbon credits are
             | bunk, but don't assume that any given project is bunk just
             | because they are selling carbon credits.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | Except that this makes the entire concept bunk, because
               | what the company cares about is the ability to claim
               | carbon neutrality in their PR, which they'll do by
               | choosing the credits that are the cheapest, which will be
               | the ones that are a fraud.
               | 
               | The actual way to fix this is to price carbon. You don't
               | get money for not burning down a forest, you pay money if
               | you burn down a forest, or burn coal. Then you refund all
               | of that money to the public so it isn't a net tax, it's
               | just an incentive to not emit carbon, because only the
               | people who emit carbon pay the tax but everybody gets the
               | refund.
        
           | vlovich123 wrote:
           | Something everyone seems to ignore is thermodynamics when it
           | comes to recapture. Capturing co2 will require at least
           | roughly the same amount of energy as we got releasing it. In
           | practice quite a bit more. I don't care how cheap solar
           | panels get, recapture is insanely expensive.
           | 
           | There's a reason none of the carbon recapture companies talk
           | about how much energy they use per ton of co2 captured.
           | 
           | For a sense of scale, last year we emitted 40Gigatons of co2
           | in the air. If I'm reading [1] correctly this corresponds to
           | over 120k TWh of energy that we generated from just that co2.
           | That's an insane amount of energy capacity we need to
           | overbuild past net 0 (and it's cute when people think solar
           | will get us there by 2050).
           | 
           | And these numbers are still growing each year and at best we
           | maybe have put a dent in the second order derivative but we
           | haven't started the downward trend.
           | 
           | And COVID showed how much of an impact a mass scale reduction
           | in personal co2 caused when basically most people stopped
           | driving - it was a blip in [1]. This shows us roughly the
           | impact that EVs attached to renewables will have - most of
           | the CO2 is from industry, shipping, airline transit,
           | concrete, etc. Those things are decarbonizing very very
           | slowly and it's not a "slow and then all at once" kind of
           | thing. The only way to overbuild enough capacity is to build
           | an insane amount of fission power plants, but I suspect we're
           | rapidly crossing the point where even that would work since
           | the ecological damage caused by global warming isn't going to
           | be reversed (eg the ice caps won't reform, the extinct
           | species won't come back, etc).
           | 
           | [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
           | 
           | Edit: for those downvoting me, I would appreciate if you
           | explained where I'm factually incorrect. Unless the downvote
           | is just an emotional response to uncomfortable data, which I
           | understand.
        
             | jjk166 wrote:
             | That would only be true if you were trying to change carbon
             | back into energy dense hydrocarbons. Accelerated weathering
             | exposes rock that reacts with CO2 without any external
             | energy input. The reaction actually produces energy, though
             | not enough to be used as a practical power source. You need
             | to do work to expose the rock, but this can be orders of
             | magnitude less than the energy released when the CO2 was
             | produced.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | OK point taken, but that's actually a very small point
               | when you run the numbers.
               | 
               | Industrial scale direct air capture technology right is
               | ~1200KWh per ton of CO2. And this energy cost is non
               | linear - as we scale up, the lower CO2 concentration in
               | the air will result in higher energy costs being needed
               | to extract the remaining. I don't think exposing the rock
               | will be cheaper or can even scale as a process but harder
               | to say. But that energy used is largely waste - sure
               | we'll maybe find a use for some of the co2 but then
               | that's also not sequestration and will release some of
               | the captured co2 back into the air.
               | 
               | Using those numbers means we'd need to be spending 48TWh
               | to capture the carbon we emit each year, which is almost
               | half of our current global energy production. Those are
               | massive numbers. Of course you could overbuild less and
               | slowly extract the co2, but then climate change gets even
               | more baked in.
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | The technology being discussed is not direct air capture.
               | However even in the context of 1200 KWh/ ton, that works
               | out to .04*1200 = $48 per ton. Wind generally runs 4
               | cents per kwh rate, and there is limited need to
               | distribute electricity to high intensity areas.
               | 
               | In total, that means we could sequester all global CO2
               | emissions for ~1.68 Trillion dollars per year - or 1.9%
               | of global GDP. This is a small fraction of the estimated
               | costs of economic disruption of climate change, why
               | wouldn't we spend money on this?
        
         | wiz21c wrote:
         | website: "With 3 tons of basalt application you can capture up
         | to 1 ton of CO2. Our software optimizes both for crop yield and
         | carbon capture -- making your land as productive as possible
         | while you earn revenue from carbon removal."
         | 
         | Should I read: 1 CO2 ton effectively captured after discounting
         | CO2 emitted for basalt extraction and dispersion ?
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | no, it sounds to me that it requires 3 tons of basalt to
           | capture 1 ton of CO2. it does not read like it is making any
           | claims beyond that. it reads to me as if you're putting words
           | into it on your own.
        
           | dj_gitmo wrote:
           | I am also curious how much carbon is released to extract and
           | spread that 3 tons. I'm guessing it's still a net carbon-
           | negative, but that's still a lot of material to be moving
           | around.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | It's gross not net. The way they minimize is that they use
           | basalt waste (so they don't dig for it, it's been dug for)
           | and they deliver as local as they can so there's hopefully
           | low transport costs. I don't know if moving basalt waste is
           | something mines already do and if they specifically count
           | that.
           | 
           | I suppose one could argue that by reducing the cost of
           | getting that waste away, they're effectively incentivizing
           | mining. You'd need a more sophisticated model to see if this
           | will work.
        
             | barbazoo wrote:
             | This probably makes more sense in a context where mining
             | and transport was done carbon neutrally. Similar to how
             | switching to an EV doesn't automatically lower your CO2
             | bill if the electricity you use is dirty but it allows for
             | decentralized improvements (i.e. renewable energy) that
             | roll out without the individual having to do anything.
        
           | mytailorisrich wrote:
           | Only basalt absorption judging by the wording, and that
           | sounds optimist (unsurprising for marketing material):
           | 
           | " _One tonne of basalt captures 0.153-0.165 tonne CO2,
           | depending on infiltration rate (400-1200 mm /a), reactive
           | surface area (3.7-15 m2/g) and CO2 partial pressure
           | (41.1-3000 Pa). When the infiltration rate is high (1200
           | mm/a), the CO2 capture capacity of basalt is exhausted after
           | 9.5-11.4 years._" [1]
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-022-10320-0
        
           | feoren wrote:
           | Yikes, that is a terrible ratio. A single emission source is
           | considered an "insignificant" CO2 emitter if it emits less
           | than 100,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. People don't
           | realize just how much CO2 is being emitted; it's staggering.
           | This seems way worse than (albeit not an alternative to)
           | planting a tree.
        
             | jjk166 wrote:
             | The issue is that trees release that CO2 back into the
             | atmosphere when they eventually die and decompose. Only
             | expanding the coverage of living forest actually captures
             | carbon, and it's a one time thing. As a reference, an acre
             | of forest in Maine stores about 400 tons of CO2, putting
             | away about 8 tons per year until it reaches maturity. To
             | expand forest coverage you're either taking land that was
             | previously deforested for some reason (for example
             | agriculture), in which case you're competing with that
             | alternative land use, or you're planting trees in an area
             | that never had forest, almost certainly because the
             | location is not naturally conducive to forest, meaning you
             | need to expend substantial resources to make it (possibly
             | literally) take root. You can get more out of it by burying
             | trees after they die such that they can't decompose, but
             | this is a substantial labor investment.
             | 
             | With weathering, the carbon is permanently locked away and
             | as long as there is more rock to weather you can keep
             | capturing more and more carbon. We already produce billions
             | of tons of waste rock each year as a byproduct of mining.
             | The bottleneck is entirely the extraction of desired
             | resources from that rock. If we didn't care about that,
             | it's really easy to just blow up massive quantities of rock
             | to dramatically increase the exposed surface area.
        
           | light_hue_1 wrote:
           | No. There's no way that this is carbon negative.
           | 
           | Lithos is almost certainly one of the many scam CO2 projects.
        
         | barbazoo wrote:
         | Thanks for sharing!!!
         | 
         | This is all voluntary right? As far as I can tell [1] the US
         | doesn't have a carbon pricing system so this is really
         | dependent on companies being interested in the positive PR this
         | leads to?
         | 
         | [1] https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data
        
         | wkat4242 wrote:
         | Why put this on farmland? We need farmland to produce food. And
         | it can be used for other plants too which capture CO2.
         | 
         | Better put this absorbing rock in places we don't need for
         | other stuff like deserts and salt lakes
        
           | entropicdrifter wrote:
           | It doesn't hurt the soil nor the crops and there are already
           | people actively managing the soil composition of farmland.
           | Logistically it's much easier to ship stuff to farms than the
           | middle of nowhere because there are existing supply lines.
        
           | ben_bai wrote:
           | It is also a fertilizer, providing Carbon and Minerals to the
           | farmland.
        
           | jandrewrogers wrote:
           | Crushed basalt can be used as a substitute for mined
           | fertilizer that would need to be applied anyway, notably
           | potassium and phosphorus. It is one of the reasons volcanic
           | soils tend to be fertile. The rock leaches significant
           | quantities of mineral that are important for plant growth.
        
       | bloopernova wrote:
       | In case anyone else is like me and wanted to know more about
       | silicate rock erosion absorbing CO2:
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonate%E2%80%93silicate_c...
        
       | duxup wrote:
       | A recent PBS documentary did a great job talking about all the
       | changes the earth has gone through:
       | 
       | https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/the-history-of-earth-i...
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | "We're sorry, but this video is no longer available."
         | 
         | Why bother posting the link?
        
           | Kerrick wrote:
           | For me the "no longer available" message only flashes
           | briefly, replaced with a login UI to log into a service
           | called OPT Passport so I could (ostensibly) watch it.
        
           | stagger87 wrote:
           | Works for me.
        
           | duxup wrote:
           | Works for me but I'm in the US, member.
           | 
           | Also handy to know if you might want to find it elsewhere.
        
           | whycome wrote:
           | Did it say "no longer" or just "not"?
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | It said "no longer". I use said now instead of says, as I
             | just went back to the page, and now the videos all have
             | posters saying it is available with their "passport"
             | accounts. I have perused the PBS site before looking for
             | older content and have been presented with the no longer
             | available message in the past. Which always baffled me.
             | Like, you're the producer of the content. Why is it not
             | available to _you_ of all people?
        
           | toni wrote:
           | Here is an hour long video explaining every stage the earth
           | has gone through:
           | 
           | The Whole History of the Earth and Life -
           | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SkeNMoDlHUU
           | 
           | It's really mind boggling how many times earth has seen a
           | mass extinction, followed by life appearing again.
        
             | revscat wrote:
             | As far as I can tell every mass extinction was caused by
             | climate changes.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | But learning if those climate changes can/could be
               | prevented is valuable lessons. If an asteroid impacted
               | caused the changes, preventing an asteroid strike is
               | close to possible _now_. Super volcano eruption would be
               | much less avoidable. Maybe in a few hundred years someone
               | can look back to see if the mechanization of man made a
               | preventable difference. It just might not be man that is
               | doing the looking.
        
       | Miraltar wrote:
       | A good video about carbon and mass extinctions (more than 1h
       | long) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxTO2w0fbB4
        
       | lainga wrote:
       | There is a positive feedback loop between ice cover and Earth's
       | overall albedo. (i.e. more shiny white ice = more sunlight
       | reflected = colder Earth = more shiny white ice...)
       | 
       | Model climates seem to require a LOT of added greenhouse gases,
       | before they tip back over into a "hothouse Earth" (don't be
       | fooled! that means our Earth with glacial and interglacial
       | periods), which happens in a very short time.
       | 
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.3269
        
         | codexb wrote:
         | There's also a positive feedback loop between ice cover and
         | increasing atmospheric CO2, since an Earth covered in ice
         | prevents a lot of the natural absorption of CO2, allowing the
         | atmospheric CO2 to rise via volcanic outgassing.
         | 
         | There's also a theory that a sudden decrease in solar radiation
         | can trigger iceball earths --
         | https://news.mit.edu/2020/sunlight-triggered-snowball-earths...
        
       | carapace wrote:
       | So now we know why Gaia evolved humans: geological regulation of
       | CO2 levels wasn't cutting it. She got sick of 57 million years of
       | ice and made multicellular lifeforms to grow a better regulator.
        
         | zikduruqe wrote:
         | > So now we know why Gaia evolved humans:
         | 
         | She wanted plastics.
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rld0KDcan_w
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | There is a major legitimate scientific controversy that the
       | article doesn't even get into, and it's about this claim:
       | 
       | > "Dr Dutkiewicz said: "At this time, there were no multicellular
       | animals or land plants on Earth. The greenhouse gas concentration
       | of the atmosphere was almost entirely dictated by CO2 outgassing
       | from volcanoes and by silicate rock weathering processes, which
       | consume CO2.""
       | 
       | This is really hard to be sure about - and the biosphere at the
       | time was having steady major effects on the atmosphere, in
       | particular atmospheric oxygenation via photosynthesis, which
       | might have drawn down atmospheric methane - possibly the most
       | important greenhouse gas at the time - leading to cooling (this
       | is the biogenic origin theory of Snowball Earth). See:
       | 
       | (2019) "Great Oxidation Event and Snowball Earth"
       | 
       | https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019asbi.book..261T/abstra...
       | 
       | The subject is still open, with no highly convincing evidence for
       | one cause or the other.
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | Yes, that claim is weird.
         | 
         | While there were no multicellular animals and land plants,
         | there were abundant green algae (Chlorophyta), red algae
         | (Rhodophyta) and blue-green algae (Cyanobacteria), both
         | unicellular and multicellular, all of which were producing
         | dioxygen, while consuming carbon dioxide.
         | 
         | Because there where abundant algae consuming carbon dioxide,
         | but the unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria that could produce
         | carbon dioxide might have been less abundant, this should have
         | had an important contribution to the decrease of the CO2
         | concentration.
         | 
         | These 3 kinds of algae had already been abundant for several
         | hundred millions of years, since more than a billion years ago.
         | 
         | It is likely that the concentration of carbon dioxide had been
         | decreasing for a long time and when there has been a time
         | interval with diminished production of volcanic carbon dioxide,
         | also accompanied with extra volcanic rocks able to combine with
         | the existing carbon dioxide, all these have tipped the balance
         | causing the glaciation, but the contribution of the excess
         | algae has probably been greater than that of the CO2-absorbing
         | volcanic rocks.
        
       | jtwaleson wrote:
       | I believe I understand how snowball earths can arise (more plants
       | -> less greenhouse gasses -> colder climate). What I don't get is
       | how snowball earths can get out of the cold spiral. Is it
       | catastrophic meteoric events? Volcanoes adding more CO2 without
       | any plants to consume it?
        
         | Zamicol wrote:
         | Yes volcanoes. "The Story of Earth" touches on it. Good book.
        
         | matkoniecz wrote:
         | I remember supervolcano eruptions being postulated as way to
         | break cycle.
         | 
         | (in addition to longterm heavy volcanism/impacts)
        
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