[HN Gopher] Rolling Airframe Missile
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Rolling Airframe Missile
        
       Author : cwillu
       Score  : 129 points
       Date   : 2024-02-04 15:24 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.navalgazing.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.navalgazing.net)
        
       | isoprophlex wrote:
       | I'll just comment that that is the most clever website name I
       | came across in a long time!
        
       | metadat wrote:
       | So many great articles on this site. This rainy Sunday is in
       | serious jeopardy of falling off the cliff and being sucked into
       | the gravity well wormhole that is navalgazing.net.
       | 
       | https://www.navalgazing.net/Phalanx
       | 
       | I've always wondered how the Battleship guns with the white dome
       | cylinder chamber above the gattling gun worked, but the
       | background story is way more interesting than I expected.
       | Apparently it's called a Phalanx, and no, a person doesn't sit in
       | the white cylinder chamber*.
       | 
       | * Despite Battlefield 2 leading me to believe a person occupied
       | the cylinder, anyone remember Wake Island with the USMC carrier,
       | F-35B, and J-10? haha, good times.
        
         | thunderbird120 wrote:
         | The article on VLS is also quite nice
         | 
         | https://www.navalgazing.net/VLS
        
         | poooogles wrote:
         | >...only a handful of cases in which ships equipped with
         | Phalanx have been the subject of missile fire, and none that
         | have actually seen the system tested.
         | 
         | Worth noting that this line is now out of date. Allegedly
         | they've been tested in Yemen recently [1].
         | 
         | 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/houthi-missile-close-us-
         | wars...
        
           | jhartwig wrote:
           | I had thought it had been used during the gulf war in a
           | friendly fire event.
        
             | Simon_ORourke wrote:
             | The Missouri got raked with it from its escort ship - not
             | pleasant for anyone concerned I'd say.
             | 
             | http://billgx.com/2019/10/autonomous-friendly-fire/
        
               | jhartwig wrote:
               | Yep that's the one
        
               | thebruce87m wrote:
               | tldr: the Missouri fired a chaff and the other ships CIWS
               | was all "not in my airspace" and started shooting at it
               | even though the Missouri was behind the target.
               | Interesting, I wonder if the whole battlegroup has synced
               | systems now to avoid such things, e.g. 1) I'm going to
               | launch something, everyone else disregard it as a threat
               | and 2) if a threat has a friendly behind it, don't shoot
               | it.
               | 
               | Maybe 2) is more of a judgement call since a few bullet
               | holes is probably preferential to the alternative.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | IFF in any capacity on Phalanx seems like a poor match.
               | 
               | At ranges that close... you really want a "deconstruct
               | anything in the air" device, not a "consider what you're
               | about to hit" device.
               | 
               | Which I'd imagine has been designer pushback on
               | complicating it and going that route.
               | 
               | Safety through deciding what mode to set it in; not
               | through leaving it alone and forgetting about it.
        
           | thsksbd wrote:
           | And the system failed, requiring the last line of defense
           | machine guns to engage.
        
             | aoki wrote:
             | Phalanx is the US CIWS based on the 20mm Vulcan gun. in
             | other words, Phalanx is the "last line of defense machine
             | guns" to which you are referring.
             | 
             | You may be thinking of Aegis, the integrated combat control
             | system. We don't yet know why the Gravely was unable to
             | intercept the missile further out. Could have been human
             | error, could have been a sea skimmer getting too close
             | before being detected. To date, Aegis has been extremely
             | effective against ballistic missiles and old cruise
             | missiles. But given enough time an enemy can test your
             | potential weak spots.
        
         | whartung wrote:
         | It's a radar directed gun. The dome thing is the radar. Once, a
         | sailor was on top of one and the radar turned on, and it cooked
         | the sailor. That radar has some real power.
         | 
         | The Phalanx motto is "it flies, it dies". It has an autonomous
         | function. Turn it on, and it kills anything in its airspace.
         | However, that's never turned on. WAY too dangerous, there's
         | always a man in the loop.
         | 
         | There's two primary challenges for the Phalanx, also known as
         | the CIWS (though this often pronounced "see whiz").
         | 
         | The first is finding the target in the first place, notably a
         | sea skimming missile, picking it out of the surface clutter.
         | The second is that, once identified, determining that its
         | actually destroyed the target in a timely fashion so as to not
         | keep pumping bullets into a flying debris field.
         | 
         | The system uses the radar to track both the target and the
         | stream of bullets. So, to the radar system, all of the bullets
         | are "tracers" to help the system direct the fire into the
         | target.
         | 
         | Another issue with the Phalanx is that it's not armored, and
         | the possibility of it getting hit by the shrapnel of the
         | missile it took out, is not zero. Unlikely, depending on
         | trajectories, but not zero. The missile may not explode, but
         | it's still a bunch of metal hurtling at several hundred miles
         | per hour.
         | 
         | While designed for the naval environment, the machines have
         | also been deployed, and used in combat, mounted on trailers to
         | be used in forward land positions as point defense against
         | missiles, low flying aircraft, and even artillery shells.
         | 
         | The CIWS was recently used to down a Houthi missile in the
         | conflict currently happening in the Red Sea.
        
           | chasil wrote:
           | Would the Phalanx have stopped a barrage of Neptune missiles,
           | which were reported to have sunk the Moskva?
           | 
           | Was the defensive weaponry on the Moskva unable to defend
           | against the Neptune, or did the crew make mistakes in
           | operating it?
        
             | dilyevsky wrote:
             | It should've had a ciws system. Probably older kashtan--m
             | (there's a newer panstir-m system). My guess it was either
             | inoperable or switched off
        
             | actionfromafar wrote:
             | IIRC Moskva was partly broken.
        
         | WalterBright wrote:
         | I've wondered many times why a radar-directed machine gun isn't
         | used to protect against drone attacks. The drones the
         | terrorists used are rather slow moving, so the gun doesn't have
         | to be that sophisticated. And it should be relatively cheap.
        
           | icegreentea2 wrote:
           | They are to some extent?
           | 
           | One issue of radar-directed machine guns in the context of
           | the Red Sea is that machine gun range is limited, so they can
           | only provide point defense. This means that a warship can
           | only protect itself, and any commercial ships that are -very-
           | nearby.
           | 
           | Yes, you could probably figure out a way to rig up a lot of
           | these onto smaller ships to escort individual ships/convoys
           | through, but hey you go to war with the navy you have.
           | 
           | Unironically, the LCS's might be useful in this role.
           | 
           | More generally, you see stuff like the army's new M-SHORAD
           | having missiles (Stinger+Hellfire) and 30mm + 7.62mm guns.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | I was thinking of the recent drone attack on a military
             | base, where three soldiers were killed.
        
               | icegreentea2 wrote:
               | Oh. Yeah, I mean there's nothing preventing such a system
               | - land based Phalanx is a thing. We also don't know what
               | air defenses were even at the base (maybe they already
               | had land based Phalanx...).
               | 
               | Sounds like the base was caught by surprise.
        
               | swagasaurus-rex wrote:
               | There was a friendly drone returning to base, so their
               | defensive systems were turned off.
        
               | giantrobot wrote:
               | There is such a system, it's called C-RAM and is
               | basically a Phallanx mounted on a trailer. You can find
               | videos of them working at bases in Iraq recently. There's
               | also smaller systems in development like M-SHORAD and
               | MADIS (Army and Marines respectively if I remember
               | right).
               | 
               | Whether stuff like that is deployed to a particular base
               | is a question of them being available and the particular
               | location being well supplied enough to use them. The
               | M-SHORAD and MADIS systems are designed to mount on light
               | vehicles so they can be deployed more readily and to
               | smaller forward positions.
        
               | wolverine876 wrote:
               | Isn't it the same problem - you need complete sensor and
               | shooter coverage of the entire perimeter. Bases are
               | pretty large - much larger than ships.
               | 
               | Also, as Hamas did, an attacker can try to overwhelm one
               | point of defense, which means your sensors, targeting
               | computers, and shooters need lots of extra availability
               | (extra equipment and soldiers) everywhere.
               | 
               | I don't think you'd want the perimeter of a base covered
               | with auto-targeting/firing guns. And also, on what does
               | all that metal (bullets) land?
        
           | envalid wrote:
           | If a target is moving slow enough it can be difficult to
           | track. Similar to how you can defend against radar missiles
           | by 'notching' aka flying perpendicular so the relative
           | velocity of the target is near zero. Radar typically relies
           | on the dopplar shift caused by the target moving to eliminate
           | clutter.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | The solution then would be to have two radars a distance
             | apart, so they can triangulate.
        
               | jcrawfordor wrote:
               | Locating the target isn't the problem, you don't need a
               | Doppler shift to calculate range by time of flight. The
               | problem is detecting the target at all. Radar in these
               | sorts of defense environments will pick up an enormous
               | number of returns off of the carrying vessel and sea
               | surf, which is actually a rather difficult problem for
               | radar because it reflects in myriad directions, it moves,
               | etc. By far the easiest way to select an "interesting"
               | radar return is to use Doppler shift to find something
               | that is moving very quickly. That can't be just a wave,
               | it has to be a missile.
               | 
               | The problem is that rotary wing drones are very slow
               | (compared to missiles) and so they don't present an
               | obviously different shift from the background. A lot of
               | R&D is going on right now into better ways to select
               | slow-moving, low-cross-section objects like drones from
               | the background.
               | 
               | This sort of thing is much more difficult for missile
               | defense than the more conventional radar application of
               | airspace surveillance, because for several reasons
               | (including the fact that this makes radar detection hard)
               | missiles tend to come at you from close to or below the
               | horizon. This means you're getting a huge amount of
               | clutter (radar returns from the environment) around them.
        
               | icegreentea2 wrote:
               | Not to minimize the challenges, but I think it's worth
               | pointing out that a lot of the drones of topical interest
               | are -not- quadcopters.
               | 
               | The Houthis (for example) have been using UAVs (Samad and
               | Qasef) are prop driven fixed wing drones with total mass
               | in the 50kg+ class (and warheads in the ~20kg class).
               | They have max speeds of 200+ kph, wingspans in the 2-5m
               | range. The Samad has ranges in the 1000km+ range.
               | Obviously, they could slow down in terminal stages of
               | attack, and I have no idea what their stall speed would
               | be like.
               | 
               | These are more akin to the Shahed class drones that
               | Russia has been deploying in Ukraine (though still much
               | smaller), than the FPV drones we see attacking
               | tanks/trenches.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | The British used radar guided artillery to knock down
               | wave after wave of V1s, which flew at around 400mph.
               | Surely we could do better today.
        
               | icegreentea2 wrote:
               | Totally. I just guess the US didn't
               | procure/deploy/use/turn-on the appropriate systems.
               | Plenty of other posts in the comments identifying
               | potential modern (and modern-ish) solutions that match
               | your parameters.
        
               | robbiep wrote:
               | Really? I had heard that sometimes pilots would nudge
               | them off course or shoot them down but nothing about
               | artillery, I thought radar came along a bit too late to
               | use it for targeting with regard to the V1
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | I thought so too, but lately I have heard and read
               | accounts akin to a lot of what happened in late WW2 with
               | regards to radar technology was _highly_ classified and
               | much didn 't enter the history books.
               | 
               | Pilots shooting and nudging definitely happened but
               | likely other, more advanced stuff happened too. The
               | germans had fully automatic radar controlled flak guns.
        
               | lupusreal wrote:
               | > _Automatic gunlaying (using, among others, the SCR-584
               | radar) and the proximity fuze played an important part in
               | Operation Diver, (the British operation to counter the V1
               | flying bombs). Both of these had been requested by AA
               | Command and arrived in numbers, starting in June 1944,
               | just as the guns reached their free-firing positions on
               | the south eastern coast of England. Seventeen per cent of
               | all flying bombs entering the coastal 'gun belt' were
               | destroyed by guns in the first week on the coast. This
               | rose to 60 per cent by 23 August and 74 per cent in the
               | last week of the month, when on one extraordinary day 82
               | per cent were shot down. The rate increased from one V-1
               | for every 2,500 shells fired to one for every hundred._
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCR-584_radar#Operational_u
               | se
               | 
               | > _90mm anti-aircraft guns were normally operated in
               | groups of four, utilizing the SCR-584 microwave computer
               | and being controlled by the M9 Director. The SCR-584 was
               | accurate to about 0.06 degrees (1 mil) and also provided
               | automatic tracking. Direction and range information was
               | sent directly to the M3 Gun Data Computer, and M9
               | Director, which directed and laid the guns automatically.
               | All the crews had to do was load the guns._
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M9_Gun_Director
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | I'm talking about a land based system to defend military
               | bases from drone attack, not sea borne vessels.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | If they can't see the target, how do they shoot missiles at
             | it?
             | 
             | I've wondered the same as the GP: Why not just send a wall
             | of metal at the drone from one of these things?
             | 
             | If not that, why not traditional anti-aircraft fire, with
             | projectiles that explode in shrapnel clouds?
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | > _Why not just send a wall of metal at the drone from
               | one of these things? If not that, why not traditional
               | anti-aircraft fire, with projectiles that explode in
               | shrapnel clouds?_
               | 
               | If this had been the 1950s or early 60s, every advanced
               | military on the planet would have been able to do exactly
               | that.
               | 
               | However, both aircraft (MiG-19+) and missiles were
               | speeding up.
               | 
               | At some speed, it becomes impractical to solve a high-
               | speed aircraft or missile problem with a gun. [0]
               | 
               | Consequently, development from the 70s on turned to
               | missiles capable of dealing with these threats.
               | 
               | Which left the only remaining systems mostly consequences
               | of failure to upgrade (e.g. the German Gepard).
               | 
               | As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat itself, but it
               | rhymes...
               | 
               | [0] See: M19 (1945) > M42 (1953) > MIM-46 (1960-63,
               | cancelled) > M-163 (1965) > MIM-72 (1967) https://en.m.wi
               | kipedia.org/wiki/M19_Multiple_Gun_Motor_Carri...
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M42_Duster
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-46_Mauler
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M163_VADS
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-72_Chaparral
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | The drones used by terrorists are homemade and slow
               | moving.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | But those weren't the primary threat military defense of
               | ~1965-2020 was designed against. (Higher then) Lower,
               | faster, and/or stealthier were the worries.
               | 
               | And aside from the economically-mobilized war that
               | Ukraine is fighting (and Russia is gradually shifting
               | to), it's unclear if capability or cost need to be
               | optimized. For every conflict economically less than
               | that, capability wins.
               | 
               | I expect the FPV quadcopter grenade-on-a-drone solution
               | will be looked back on like the Toyota Hilux tactical --
               | effective when introduced, but superceded and dominated
               | by specialized systems produced by military industry.
        
           | tyingq wrote:
           | Maybe hard to sort out small drones from large birds?
        
           | antoniojtorres wrote:
           | That space is currently littered with all kinds of new
           | projects given the urgency. One that has stuck with me is the
           | German Rheinmetall Skynex which works the way you are
           | describing. It's like a really high tech flak cannon. There
           | are neat videos of it on youtube.
        
           | ranger207 wrote:
           | Radar is essentially a searchlight shining up into the night
           | sky. If you have a radar-directed machine gun pointing into
           | the sky, it's relatively easy to triangulate where the
           | emitter is and direct artillery to take it out.
        
           | ianburrell wrote:
           | The US has Mk38 canon on lots of ships. The Mod3 added radar.
           | Its primary focus is against small boats and could probably
           | work against USV that Ukraine has been using against Russia.
           | I hope the Navy is working in modifying to work against small
           | and medium drones.
           | 
           | The other thing that might help against drones are the
           | automated weapons stations hat are on lots of vehicles. I
           | think I read about project to add radar and automated
           | targeting of drones.
        
           | avar wrote:
           | I'd think the primary defense against drones on a naval
           | vessel would be that the ship's made of metal, and doesn't
           | have squishy humans wandering around (unless it's a carrier).
           | 
           | IOW a very small drone also means a very small payload.
        
             | windexh8er wrote:
             | The size of the payload is still a significant problem if
             | your enemy is close with many drones. This video [0] shows
             | a Russian missile cruiser being sunk by Ukrainian drones
             | recently in the Black Sea. The problem these boats have
             | with drones is that they are slow all around compared to a
             | rather nimble drone which can react to its operations. As
             | can be seen in the video multiple drones are used to sink
             | the large ship.
             | 
             | Edit: A better article around the situation and
             | effectiveness of the drones is at [1].
             | 
             | [0] Video Russian missile cruiser "Ivanovets" destroyed by
             | sea drones at January 31/February 1 in Black Sea -
             | https://v.redd.it/hevs3v05hyfc1
             | 
             | [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/01/ukraine-
             | sea-dr...
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | I think they were referring to aerial drones, which tend
               | to have limited capacities for cheap ones.
               | 
               | Those were seaborne (naval) drones carrying about 1000 kg
               | of explosives each if I remember correctly.
        
           | foofie wrote:
           | > I've wondered many times why a radar-directed machine gun
           | isn't used to protect against drone attacks.
           | 
           | You mean something like Germany's Gepard?
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard
        
         | saiya-jin wrote:
         | Went for Phalanx article immediately too when I saw the link, I
         | guess there is just something about that 20mm beast throwing
         | massive tungsten slugs at even crazier speeds that no missile
         | can compete with (for attracting readers).
         | 
         | These things require super quick reactions, operator is
         | optional (and thats why no real usage in combat, USN ends up
         | turning it off often in situations where they don't want to
         | risk absolutely destructive friendly fire.
         | 
         | Now if everything will be eventually 'ai'-infused, well, fuck.
         | Navy apparently doesn't trust automation with their lives much,
         | and fancier neural network with unpredictable decision paths
         | ain't gonna improve things.
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | You always want a human in the loop. FDS sometimes drives
           | into trucks or disengages randomly. Automated defence systems
           | shoot at stuff they consider to be a threat, and that can be
           | anything from non-combatants to friendlies. Or just the
           | enemy, but the particular attack might be a diversion, hence
           | a human might hold the defence back. Also just for stealth,
           | radar is a giant beacon leading right to back to you. As is a
           | rapid fire 20 mm cannon.
           | 
           | Unless we have General AI, in which case, well, you'd still
           | want a human in the loop, just at different level.
        
         | paulmd wrote:
         | Phalanx: "is it for me???"
         | 
         | https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/13kd6m0...
        
       | CafeRacer wrote:
       | I wish you could control with arrows or `wasd`. Or if at least it
       | showed a message explaining how controls work. Took me a bit to
       | figure out controls on a laptop.
        
         | qwertox wrote:
         | Did my adblocker block out a game on that page or did we read
         | different articles?
        
           | throwanem wrote:
           | I believe that was meant for
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39189285, "Missile
           | Game".
        
       | droro wrote:
       | I had always wondered whether there was a missile that was spin
       | stabilized with minimal control surfaces like this one. They
       | mentioned it only had two control fins, but not whether they are
       | independent. It seems possible to steer a spinning missile using
       | a single actuator if the control pulses are precise enough.
        
         | icegreentea2 wrote:
         | From
         | https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/techdigest/Content/techdigest/pdf/...
         | it seems that the two control fins are driven off a single
         | shaft/motor - so they are not independent.
         | 
         | The RAM uses single plane tracking - basically imaging that
         | it's only ever steering in pitch. But because it's constantly
         | rolling, "pitch" will sweep over both axes and control to zero.
        
           | 13of40 wrote:
           | Yeah (and apologies if I get this wrong after 30 years) with
           | a rolling airframe, you can have two fins on the same axis
           | that "wiggle" back and forth at the same frequency as the
           | rotation of the missile. Direction control comes from the
           | phase of the movement, so the fins are pushed in the
           | direction you want to go when it rotates to that point.
        
         | amenhotep wrote:
         | Vikhr also does this, and Starstreak and M1156 both use a
         | clutch to transfer force from a freely spinning fin assembly at
         | the nose to the rest of the projectile when appropriate,
         | achieving guidance without _any_ movable control surfaces!
         | Missile designers are very clever.
        
         | lazyeye wrote:
         | Just curious....what else have you always wondered about?
        
         | saiya-jin wrote:
         | newer versions have 4 fins... better read the actual article,
         | pretty good stuff there
        
         | Fatalist_ma wrote:
         | BTW That's a pretty common control scheme for Soviet and
         | Soviet-derived ATGMs.
         | https://thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/soviet-atgm...
        
       | LispSporks22 wrote:
       | I don't think these systems will work against cheap, tiny drones
       | or swarms of drones. eg. Russian ships vs Ukrainian boat drones.
        
         | ranger207 wrote:
         | Probably not. They were designed to take out multi-ton
         | supersonic cruise missiles so they need a larger warhead than
         | would be required against drone swarms. Of course, since
         | they're so large and capable they certainly could take down _a_
         | drone, and then it becomes a question of how large the incoming
         | swarm is.
         | 
         | Now, if the incoming swarm is large enough, then either each
         | drone carries a tiny amount of explosives, or each drone is
         | large and expensive. The US Navy has been building ships to
         | protect against mass swarms of incoming cruise missiles since
         | about the 60s or so, so if the incoming drones are large enough
         | then you could also use larger missiles against them and rely
         | on the RAM only for whatever leaks through.
        
         | cgearhart wrote:
         | That's what the lasers are for.
         | https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/10/19/...
        
       | wolverine876 wrote:
       | Always important to look critically at the person speaking (I
       | mean to imply nothing about them, just sharing what I found):
       | 
       |  _It [the blog] grew out of my time as a tour guide on the
       | battleship Iowa (BB-61) in Los Angeles, and although I now live
       | halfway across the country, Iowa is still one of the mainstays of
       | this blog. It also came from my frustration with existing
       | sources, which tended to be either way too high-level or too
       | technical, with very little to bring an interested general
       | audience up to speed. ..._
       | 
       |  _I 've been a military geek since I was in grade school,
       | although my affections didn't settle on matters naval until after
       | I graduated college with a degree in aerospace engineering. ...
       | Unfortunately, I didn't like my actual job, and ended up getting
       | another job in Oklahoma, doing work on military aircraft._
       | 
       | https://www.navalgazing.net/About
       | 
       | Certainly they should understand how flying machines work. I
       | dunno about their history. :)
        
         | lapsed_pacifist wrote:
         | bean used to post long and in depth posts into the
         | SlateStarCodex Open Threads, then someone helped him set up his
         | own site, and here we are. He organizes meetups at Naval
         | History sites too.
        
       | wolverine876 wrote:
       | > The use of a gun limited effective range to no more than 1500
       | yards
       | 
       | Aren't sniper rifles effective at that distance (if they hit)? A
       | weapon not constrained to human limits in dynamic movement, heat,
       | sound, pressure, size, etc, isn't effective at a much greater
       | distance?
        
         | unwind wrote:
         | I am no expert but I imagine one important tradeoff is between
         | cartridge power (necessary for long range with sufficient
         | energy) and cartridge size/mass, these systems have high rates
         | of fire (because trying to hit very fast-moving targets) and
         | that can't be easy with a giant cartridge.
         | 
         | What happened to "Metal storm"?
        
         | laverya wrote:
         | How long does it take for a bullet to reach 1500 yards? Around
         | 2 seconds. How confident do you have to be in the movement of
         | your target to hit them with a 2 second lead? Very. (Or you can
         | follow the CIWS methodology and throw quite a few bullets at
         | once)
         | 
         | The effective range isn't limited by the ballistics of the
         | weapon (The 20 mm shells it fires will easily go 5+km), it's
         | limited by actually hitting the damn thing you're aiming at.
        
         | ranger207 wrote:
         | Sniper rifles are firing a single shot, the bullet is smaller,
         | and snipers can take significant time to prepare. I've heard of
         | snipers firing a few hundred yards away from their target first
         | to see exactly how their shot will be affected by drop and wind
         | and only then aiming at their target. Sniper rifles have much
         | less stress on them imposed by firing the cartridge than a
         | Phalanx; a 12.7x99mm cartridge is nothing compared to 20x102mm.
         | Finally, a sniper is firing a single carefully aimed shot; a
         | Phalanx is firing 75 rounds a second from six rotating barrels.
        
           | wolverine876 wrote:
           | How does that reduce effectiveness of a Phalanx against a
           | drone? With all that metal flying, the pinpoint accuracy
           | problem seems solved.
        
             | icegreentea2 wrote:
             | The M61 (the gun the Phalanx is built around) apparently
             | has a 80% dispersion of ~5 milliradians (see this amazing
             | reddit post complaining about DCS - note that the evidence
             | points to a range of values - I think 5 milliradians is a
             | fair summary https://old.reddit.com/r/hoggit/comments/eyddn
             | 3/m61_and_gau8... ). At 1500m that works out to a 75cm
             | radius (I'm pretty sure its radius...) disc.
             | 
             | Assuming your firing at a missile flying right at you, and
             | assuming a Cold War era threat (so say a Kh-22 fired from a
             | Tu-22M), you're talking about a 92cm diameter target (46cm
             | radius) that you're trying to hit.
             | 
             | In reality, things are worse because in addition to
             | dispersion, your actual point of aim of your stream of
             | bullets will be effected by external factors (like wind).
             | 
             | You can see how in the scenario layed out above, you do
             | actually have what seems to be a reasonable chance of
             | landing a few hits when you're spewing out hundreds of
             | rounds within seconds. But you can also see how quickly the
             | odds go to crap as you push the range further and further.
             | 
             | I think that gets to the reality of what the "effective
             | range" value is. It is a rule of thumb designed to help
             | weapons officers quickly determine how best to react in a
             | scenario.
             | 
             | Remember that CIWS was envisioned to be deployed in a
             | scenario where USN ships would be subject to saturation
             | attacks by supersonic anti-ship missiles from multiple
             | bearings and sources. Phalanx itself only has a magazine of
             | ~1000 rounds, which is good for maybe only 10s of firing,
             | so you really do need to conserve ammo.
        
         | jabl wrote:
         | The shell itself flies considerably longer, although 20mm
         | shells start to slow down and drop much more quickly than even
         | slightly bigger shells like 30mm (see e.g. the Goalkeeper CIWS
         | for a similar concept using the same 30mm gun as the A-10
         | aircraft).
         | 
         | It's a question of hitting the target with a usefully high
         | probability. At longer ranges dispersion is higher, so even if
         | the aim is correct there's a chance it won't hit. And think of
         | how it works; it shoots out a stream of shells, and tracks the
         | target and the shells with radar. But what if the target is
         | doing some evasive maneuvers, which AFAIU many anti-ship
         | missiles do in their final phases? The shells fly out at about
         | 900 m/s, and a subsonic missile flies at maybe 300 m/s. So by
         | the time the shells whizz by the missile it has moved a quite
         | considerable distance, and while the radar tracking can apply
         | the correct amount of lead (with a Kalman filter or similar to
         | take into account measurement noise), if the missile is doing
         | some unpredictable maneuvers that might not help. With the
         | missile closing at 300 m/s, you don't have very many cycles of
         | shoot-see-where-the-shell-goes-adjust-aim before the missile
         | slams into the ship.
         | 
         | And to make matters worse, there are also supersonic anti-ship
         | missiles. Now evasive maneuvers in the high-density air at the
         | surface isn't really a concept that works out for Mach 3
         | missiles, but, well, the missile compensates by flying as fast
         | as the cannon shells.
         | 
         | Hence stuff like this RAM thingy is seen as a better system
         | against high-end anti-ship missiles.
        
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