[HN Gopher] Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of d...
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       Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day
        
       Author : alden5
       Score  : 485 points
       Date   : 2024-01-31 05:31 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.pcmag.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.pcmag.com)
        
       | scohesc wrote:
       | The article mentions that they were able to stream video from a
       | starlink satellite as it was de-orbiting - it would be neat to
       | see the video of that, even if it cuts off as the laser link
       | losing connection (or the satellite burns up)
        
       | SushiHippie wrote:
       | [dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39199368
        
         | dang wrote:
         | OP was posted earliest so I guess we'll merge the other threads
         | hither. Thanks!
        
       | advisedwang wrote:
       | 42M GB Per day = 3.9tbps
        
         | progbits wrote:
         | > M GB
         | 
         | I can hear the SI crying.
        
       | ble wrote:
       | My understanding of the state of the art of inter-satellite
       | optical links is that they have only been used between satellites
       | that are basically in the same orbital plane and in more or less
       | the same orbit. That is, the angle from one satellite to the
       | other changes very very slowly, so that the optics don't have to
       | do much tracking -- and consequently satellites can only form an
       | optical link with other satellites that are ahead or behind
       | themselves in ~ the same orbit.
       | 
       | Cross-plane optical links would have a trickier tracking problem.
       | 
       | While there's no explicit mention of same-plane vs cross-plane
       | optical links, I assume that the first time people have a public
       | cross-plane optical link, they will make a big deal out of it. :)
       | 
       | The article also mentions that SpaceX would need to do further
       | study before using laser links between satellites and ground
       | stations-- this kind of optical link would require both more
       | angular tracking and probably atmospheric correction as well.
        
         | sandworm101 wrote:
         | Tracking is an issue, but doppler can also be a thing. At
         | orbital speed (actually up to 2x orbital speeds) the doppler
         | effect between two satellites can change the frequency enough
         | to cause interference. Moving a scope to track a moving target
         | is one problem, allowing the algorithms to adapt at the
         | frequency shifts on the fly another.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | Indeed Iridium had to deal with the same thing (or I guess,
           | didn't):
           | 
           | " Cross-seam inter-satellite link hand-offs would have to
           | happen very rapidly and cope with large Doppler shifts;
           | therefore, Iridium supports inter-satellite links only
           | between satellites orbiting in the same direction."
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_satellite_constellat.
           | ..
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Don't all satellites orbit in the same direction? Launching
             | retrograde is just throwing away free velocity.
        
               | nightpool wrote:
               | In the context of the full article (https://en.wikipedia.
               | org/wiki/Iridium_satellite_constellatio...), it's clear
               | they're talking about the polar orbits used by the
               | Iridium constellation, which have "seams" around the
               | Atlantic and the Pacific as the "first" set of satellites
               | passing north-to-south overlap with the "last" set of
               | satellites coming back south-to-north on the other side
               | of their orbits. So of the 6 orbital planes used by the
               | Iridium satellites, each plane covers 1/12th of the globe
               | for each "half" of its over-the-poles orbit. So there are
               | two "seams" where handoff is not supported, one off the
               | eastern seaboard and one roughly over Japan.
               | 
               | There's an animation on linked article that explains this
               | pretty well: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commo
               | ns/thumb/9/90/Ir...
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | Ah I didn't realize they have all of their stats in polar
               | orbits, that's interesting. Starlink is mostly equatorial
               | afaik, the higher latitudes aren't very well covered.
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | Most of Starlink's orbits have an inclination of 53
               | degrees, which I wouldn't really call equatorial anymore.
        
               | amlozano wrote:
               | The Iridium satellites are in what you might call
               | "parallel" orbits, if you stretch the meaning of the word
               | a little bit.
               | 
               | The wikipedia link above explains it well:
               | 
               | """ Orbital velocity of the satellites is approximately
               | 27,000 km/h (17,000 mph). Satellites communicate with
               | neighboring satellites via Ka band inter-satellite links.
               | Each satellite can have four inter-satellite links: one
               | each to neighbors fore and aft in the same orbital plane,
               | and one each to satellites in neighboring planes to
               | either side. The satellites orbit from pole to same pole
               | with an orbital period of roughly 100 minutes.[8] This
               | design means that there is excellent satellite visibility
               | and service coverage especially at the North and South
               | poles. The over-the-pole orbital design produces "seams"
               | where satellites in counter-rotating planes next to one
               | another are traveling in opposite directions. Cross-seam
               | inter-satellite link hand-offs would have to happen very
               | rapidly and cope with large Doppler shifts; therefore,
               | Iridium supports inter-satellite links only between
               | satellites orbiting in the same direction. """
               | 
               | The 'seams' have interesting implications for latency
               | when I was working on Global Data Broadcast.
        
             | amlozano wrote:
             | There were some experiments with communicating over Iridium
             | to small cube-like sats back in the day, but we couldn't
             | make the system on a chip beefy enough to do the Doppler
             | shift calculations on the fly and survive a launch; it was
             | close though. I think its possible to do now.
        
           | ble wrote:
           | Links between satellites closing range near 2x orbital speed
           | have two problems: - bigger doppler - the lifetime of the
           | link is much shorter
        
           | dreamcompiler wrote:
           | Doppler is not a big problem with lasers because the carrier
           | frequency is so much higher than RF that it doesn't matter;
           | it's bang-bang AM modulated.
           | 
           | I'm assuming two things: That something like Manchester
           | coding is being used so that some clock skew is tolerable,
           | and that the laser carrier is not in fact being frequency or
           | phase modulated. Last I checked FM and PM of optical
           | frequencies was not yet practical outside of laboratories,
           | but I'm happy to be corrected.
        
         | ortusdux wrote:
         | > "Another really fun fact is that we held a link all the way
         | down to 122 kilometers while we were de-orbiting a satellite,"
         | he said. "And we were able to downstream the video."
         | 
         | > For the future, SpaceX plans on expanding its laser system so
         | that it can be ported and installed on third-party satellites.
         | The company has also explored beaming the satellite lasers
         | directly to terminals on the Earth's surface to deliver data.
        
           | FpUser wrote:
           | So what happens to the laser beam when there are clouds?
        
             | hrkfmud50k wrote:
             | maybe it could route around the clouds via some other
             | satellites
        
             | odyssey7 wrote:
             | Interesting parallel to solar panels.
        
             | caymanjim wrote:
             | The lasers aren't used for ground-to-satellite comms. While
             | they refer to some of them maintaining a link through the
             | atmosphere, the lasers are intended for satellite-to-
             | satellite communication way above the atmosphere.
        
             | indolering wrote:
             | It would fall back to radio and/or other connections. The
             | laser connection would probably be sold at a discount rate
             | due to the variable level of service.
        
             | Tuna-Fish wrote:
             | There are some wavelengths that maintain decent signal
             | quality through cloud cover, and even rainstorms. I cannot
             | find the paper right now, but iirc Tightbeam (formerly from
             | the Google _sharks with lasers_ team, now spun out as
             | Aalyria), demonstrated space to ground comms in adverse
             | weather with negligible packet loss and something like 40%
             | reduced bandwidth.
             | 
             | The customer terminals will likely never connect through
             | lasers (because a laser can only point in one direction at
             | a time), but moving the ground station uplink to a laser
             | link sounds very beneficial.
        
         | Symmetry wrote:
         | Right. The Iridium network had communication between satellites
         | in different orbital planes passing each other but that was a
         | pretty unusual capability.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | I wonder how iridium actually handles the tracking (or if
           | it's just slow enough and lack of attenuation in free space
           | just lets them blast it).
           | 
           | And if they have zones where they don't go to adjacent
           | orbits, but instead go up or down within their orbit for the
           | handover between orbits.
        
             | lxgr wrote:
             | Supposedly they use steering, since the horizontal azimuth
             | to adjacent-plane satellites varies from 0 to 65 degrees
             | across an orbit:
             | https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA348174.pdf
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | It doesn't get into it too much on pages 14 and 15, but
               | it indeed suggests that they probably exclusively use the
               | "intra-orbital" links closer to the poles to get data to
               | a satellite where the inter-orbital links are more
               | practical.
               | 
               | I believe Iridium had way more downlinks than they used
               | to pre-bankruptcy. I guess volume constraints were less
               | of an issue, so ok to hop around more in space.
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | This has more details: https://fcc.report/IBFS/SAT-
               | MOD-20131227-00148/1031348.pdf
               | 
               | Apparently it only happens above/below 68 degrees
               | latitude, so the next satellite with a working inter-
               | orbital-plane connection is at most one hop ahead or
               | behind.
               | 
               | https://spaceflight101.com/spacecraft/iridium-next/ has
               | some more photos and diagrams; seems like they're really
               | mechanically steered even on the NEXT constellation.
        
           | akira2501 wrote:
           | They do have counter rotating planes though, so there are
           | places where two satellite tracks next to each other moving
           | in opposite directions, and these pairs of satellites cannot
           | use the cross plane communication mode.
           | 
           | Additionally, their inter satellite links use regular Ka band
           | radio.
        
         | sephamorr wrote:
         | Take a look at the slides from the presentation, I think the
         | geometry clearly shows cross-plane links in the mesh. Having
         | worked on these types of systems, I've had more difficulty with
         | the lookahead angles (rx from where the target was, tx to where
         | it will be due to speed of light) than the tracking -- fine
         | tracking performance was required for all modes, and it largely
         | became a GNC and acquisition time issue (since they're
         | ephemeral) for the cross-plane links.
        
           | stcredzero wrote:
           | GNC?
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | Guidance navigation and/or control
        
             | nightpool wrote:
             | Guidance, navigation and control
        
           | ble wrote:
           | The "routing in the mesh" slide? Definitely given where the
           | satellites are in that picture some of the links would have
           | to be cross-plane, it's just the whole thing looked so messy
           | (even with it being geo-referenced on a globe) that I didn't
           | know whether to consider it a "real routing example" vs a
           | "notional routing example that we overlaid on the globe".
           | 
           | Sounds very cool that cross-plane links are doable, even if
           | they have predictable complications compared to in-plane.
           | 
           | I would have thought that someone would make a big deal (have
           | a press release, e.g.) out of successfully establishing
           | cross-plane links, but maybe it just doesn't seem that
           | impressive to people who already have good enough precise
           | predictive ephemerides or satellite states to make those
           | links in the first place.
        
           | nomel wrote:
           | _In general_ , how is the initial alignment performed?
           | 
           | Is there rough pointing, followed by some rastering, until
           | the sensor gets a hit? Maybe with some slight beam widening
           | first? My assumption is that you would want exactly one
           | laser, one sensor module, and probably a fixed lens on each?
           | Is the sensor something like a 2x2 array, or pie with three
           | pieces, to allow alignment? Or is it one big sensor that uses
           | perturb and observe type approach to find the middle?
           | 
           | Also, is there anything special about the wavelengths
           | selected? Are the lasers fit to one of the Fraunhofer lines?
           | 760nm seems like a good choice?
        
             | barbegal wrote:
             | There's an interesting paper on the subject of alignment
             | here. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?ar
             | ticle=4...
        
             | sephamorr wrote:
             | Alas there is no 'in general'. Acquisition is often the
             | secret sauce due to, among other challenges, the extremely
             | tight alignment requirement -- thermal shifts, satellite
             | wobbling, etc, are all critical to manage.
             | 
             | On wavelengths, if you're trying to hit 100gbit+, you're
             | probably having to use coherent optics, and there aren't
             | many technology options or wavelengths on the market.
        
               | _0ffh wrote:
               | You got it exactly right! I worked on a simulation model
               | of the complete optical setup of a laser terminal with
               | movable mirrors and all including the fricking servo
               | motors and a simple orbital model for the relative
               | satellite positions. Plus an interface to drop in the
               | actual acquisition and tracking code used on the embedded
               | control system. All of that just to be able to do
               | reasonably realistic simulations for verification and
               | tuning of the secret sauce.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | A laser that transmits data at 100Gbps can also transmit at
             | 1 bit per second with an additional path loss of 110
             | decibels.
             | 
             | You'd normally achieve this by transmitting a well-known
             | pseudorandom sequence. You also need clock stability into
             | the ppb range.
             | 
             | A path loss of 110 decibels is _huge_. It can easily
             | account for your lenses being hugely off axis.
        
               | sneak wrote:
               | What books or webpages do I read to learn how to
               | understand the why of your first sentence?
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | This is from the Shannon-Hartley theorem, the 'power
               | limited case':
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon%E2%80%93Hartley_the
               | ore...
        
         | _0ffh wrote:
         | Nah, I once did a job for a guy and they did LEO-GEO distances
         | alright iirc and LEO-Earth in the mid-end 2000s, which has to
         | deal with some pretty high angular velocities, if not as
         | potentially high as LEO-LEO when they don't happen to be
         | relatively nicely aligned. (In case that sounds strange, the
         | guy was one of the two owners of a small, very specialized
         | company that in turn was subcontracted by a rather bigger
         | company. These laser terminals were quite the beasts and not
         | really cheap.)
        
         | calrain wrote:
         | I'll assume there is a lot of double/triple (or higher)
         | accounting going on here as data is sent through multiple relay
         | hops to get the intended target.
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | With 266,000 acquisitions per day, I suggest they are regularly
         | doing links across orbital planes.
         | 
         | If they could only do in-plane links, they would have barely
         | any acquisitions per day, because most links would stay up for
         | long periods of time.
        
       | mschuster91 wrote:
       | > The lasers, which can sustain a 100Gbps connection per link
       | 
       | > Brashears also said Starlink's laser system was able to connect
       | two satellites over 5,400 kilometers (3,355 miles) apart. The
       | link was so long "it cut down through the atmosphere, all the way
       | down to 30 kilometers above the surface of the Earth," he said,
       | before the connection broke.
       | 
       | How do these tiny satellites achieve this kind of accuracy and
       | link quality when they're shooting around Earth with 17.000 miles
       | an hour?
       | 
       | (Meanwhile, me on Earth, has link quality issues due to a speck
       | of dust on a fiber connector)
        
         | ugjka wrote:
         | Given this is Gen3 and Gen4 now being launched, it took some
         | figuring out
        
         | sumtechguy wrote:
         | Relative to the origin satellite I would assume the others are
         | in a fairly fixed position to it. Remember they try to keep
         | them spaced out and even coverage. That means the things are
         | not moving around wildly relative to each other. But to us they
         | are wizzing by. For example I know I am relatively moving
         | fairly quickly to the earths core and pretty fast around the
         | center of the sun. But from my PoV everything around me looks
         | stationary. Also there is not a lot of dirt up there.
        
         | diggan wrote:
         | > (Meanwhile, me on Earth, has link quality issues due to a
         | speck of dust on a fiber connector)
         | 
         | It's incredible really. I remember when I was a kid living with
         | my mom on an island, we got broadband relatively late (compared
         | to the rest of the country), as the island required antennas
         | for getting mainland and the island linked, instead of cables.
         | I think it was set up that way because of costs or something,
         | remember it being expensive...
         | 
         | Regardless, the antennas were setup and we finally got
         | broadband, but every time it got a bit windy and/or rainy, the
         | links started to have huge issues, especially if the lake got
         | lots of waves, then the connection simply disappeared.
         | 
         | And now it seems almost like magic to me how the same setup is
         | literally done but way above our heads, in a really hostile
         | environment like space.
        
           | dkasper wrote:
           | In some important ways space is actually the least hostile
           | environment. But yeah, it's still amazing and has its own
           | challenges.
        
         | polishdude20 wrote:
         | Phased array antennas probably have a lot to do with this. You
         | can aim the signal more accurately and faster than any
         | mechanical system ever could.
        
           | Tuna-Fish wrote:
           | Laser links are not using phased array antennas. It's a
           | physically moving "turret" with a laser and another with a
           | receiver. And they need to be separate units, because the
           | speeds and distances involved are long enough that you are
           | not receiving from the same direction as you are sending.
        
             | topspin wrote:
             | > that you are not receiving from the same direction as you
             | are sending
             | 
             | It's a thrill to think about that. Starlink is really out
             | there.
             | 
             | I bet this is lost on a lot of people. Not to patronize
             | anyone, but what Tuna-Fish is pointing out is that due to
             | the speed of light, the distance between satellites and
             | their relatives velocities, when one satellite is beaming
             | data to another satellite it must aim where the receiving
             | satellite will be, as opposed to where it is now, when the
             | light arrives. Further, the receiver must be looking at
             | where the transmitter was back when the signal was sent, as
             | opposed to where the transmitter is now. And because this
             | is all bidirectional, each satellite must send and receive
             | in different, continuously changing directions at the same
             | time.
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | I understand what you're saying... But lets check.
               | 
               | Assuming the lenses are about 2 inches across (from
               | photos) and they are 1310nm IR lasers:
               | 
               | https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=single+slit+diffract
               | ion...
               | 
               | So we have a minimum beam width of 0.0014 degrees.
               | 
               | And the speed of light round trip distance is say 3.3
               | milliseconds.
               | 
               | So the question is, does the angle between the satellites
               | change faster than 0.0014/0.0033 = 0.42 degrees/second?
               | 
               | Well the worst case is one satellite heading north at 7.4
               | Km/s and another heading south at 7.4 km/s. Lets assume
               | the satellites are 550 km apart (the distance between
               | planes at the equator), and use the small angle
               | approximation... Comes out as 1.4 degrees per second.
               | 
               | So yes, these satellites do need the ability to aim
               | transmit and receive in different directions! (although
               | they might be able to just defocus the beam a little when
               | angles are changing fast to trade off throughput for
               | design complexity)
        
           | yencabulator wrote:
           | Surely the lasers aren't phased arrays.
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | The current Starlinks satellites aren't small. They are almost
         | a ton and 13ft by 9ft.
         | 
         | Even the original ones weren't that small weighing 570lb.
        
         | stefan_ wrote:
         | Their exact position in space can be calculated very precisely.
         | The Starlink terminals do this as well.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | The rate of change of their relative positions is what matters.
         | At 5400km distance this is likely slowish so that tracking is
         | not a big issue as long as position is well known, which it is.
         | 
         | Re. Link quality: laser, line of sight, most of the trip is in
         | vacuum and the rest in very sparse atmosphere. So interferences
         | are likely quite low.
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | 3M just invented a new fiber interconnect thing to mitigate the
         | dust issue: https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/data-center-
         | us/applications/inte...
         | 
         | Maybe the future of usb in 10 years :)
        
       | lupusreal wrote:
       | > _" We actually serve over lasers all of our users on Starlink
       | at a given time in like a two-hour window"_
       | 
       | I can't figure out what this sentence means.
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | That any SpaceX user who has a connection established for >2h
         | will have their data sent not via the classic path "ground -
         | satellite - ground" at least once during the connection, but
         | via "ground - satellite 1 - satellite 2 - ground".
        
         | NelsonMinar wrote:
         | I think it means pretty much all Starlink users have at least
         | some data go over laser links every two hours. Which is a bit
         | of surprise to me, if true. I have a year or so of fine-grained
         | latency detail taken with IRTT on a Starlink connection, I
         | should sit down and see if I can see times I'm using a
         | satellite. Latency is highly variable in Starlink though so
         | it's pretty noisy data.
        
           | gibspaulding wrote:
           | Have you posted that data anywhere? I'm currently on a 10mbps
           | DSL connection and considering StarLink, but have so far been
           | scared away by the cost and concerns about latency, so I'm
           | always on the lookout for real world data.
        
             | regpertom wrote:
             | My pings roughly 60-80 no matter if I'm going to a friends
             | server down the road or across the world. Before starlink,
             | my rural internet would be lucky to get below 120. For what
             | that's worth.
        
           | quailfarmer wrote:
           | Hey, I'm very curious if you've seen any improvement in
           | latency over the past month.
        
       | 7e wrote:
       | Global internet traffic is estimated to be 3 yottabytes per day.
       | So Starlink is now carrying one of out every 77 million parts of
       | worldwide traffic. Wow, that's small.
       | 
       | EDIT: there's some confusion information out there. With a more
       | conservative estimate of 150.7 exabytes per month, Starlink gets
       | 1 part of 119, which is more impressive.
        
         | uoaei wrote:
         | The quoted number is only for inter-satellite laser links, not
         | for other methods of information transmission.
        
           | bagels wrote:
           | Most of the traffic is probably just bounced off the
           | satellite down to the nearby ground station still.
        
         | jlmorton wrote:
         | Where do you get 3 yottabytes? That is difficult to believe. I
         | see 150 exabytes per month [1], about a thousand times less.
         | 
         | https://gitnux.org/internet-traffic-statistics/ [1]
        
           | 7e wrote:
           | https://www.statista.com/statistics/216335/data-usage-per-
           | mo...
        
       | sys_64738 wrote:
       | Is that a lot?
        
       | heeton wrote:
       | Don't you mean 42million Gigabytes?
        
         | Alifatisk wrote:
         | Isn't that equivalent? What does it help to use GB instead of
         | PB?
        
           | heeton wrote:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39199368
        
         | ortusdux wrote:
         | I was going to put 336,000,000,000,000,000 bits/day, but it
         | seamed a bit overkill.
        
           | MeImCounting wrote:
           | *seemed
           | 
           | I dont think theres anything having to do with seams or
           | fabric in this conversation
        
             | versteegen wrote:
             | Been quite a lot of discussion of both of those things in
             | this thread!
        
       | Scoundreller wrote:
       | So which points are getting "faster than fibre" latency because
       | of this? Extra distance up and down, but make up for it on the
       | long-haul.
       | 
       | Won't beat HF radio though.
        
         | edgyquant wrote:
         | Why would we expect faster than fibre?
        
           | Cu3PO42 wrote:
           | The speed of light in a vacuum is roughly 50% higher than the
           | speed of light in fiber.
        
             | andrewpolidori wrote:
             | Is attenuation in a vacuum also better?
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | yes, glass has a non zero amount of absorption which is
               | why Erbium amplification is required.
        
             | edgyquant wrote:
             | The area between a starlink receiver on the ground and a
             | satellite isn't a vacuum
        
               | gkfasdfasdf wrote:
               | That's a great point, I was curious so I looked it up.
               | Google offered the following:
               | 
               | "The speed of light in air is about 299,705 kilometers
               | per second, or 2.99705 x 10^8 meters per second. This is
               | almost as fast as light travels in a vacuum, slowing down
               | by only three ten-thousandths of the speed of light."
               | 
               | So seems like the speed of light in atmosphere is still a
               | lot faster than fiber.
        
               | delecti wrote:
               | The speed of light in air is 99.97% of that in a vacuum,
               | vs about 2/3 of c through fiber.
        
             | ortusdux wrote:
             | I will note that this is the case for conventional fiber-
             | optic cable. The newer hollow-core fiber cables transmit
             | light at nearly c. As far as I know hollow-core has not
             | seen wide-spread use, but it will be interesting if trans-
             | continental connections switch over.
        
               | ByThyGrace wrote:
               | Will adopting the new cables everywhere mean nearly
               | halving latency all across the board? Sans routing
               | latencies.
               | 
               | This would be huge for realtime gaming across continents.
        
               | Cu3PO42 wrote:
               | Any stretch of fibre you replace with hollow core fibre
               | will see latency reduced to two thirds of what it was
               | before. (It would be half if the speed of light in it
               | were double what it is in normal fibre, but it's only 50%
               | faster).
               | 
               | You say sans routing latencies, but these are very much
               | significant for intercontinental communication:
               | 
               | I get 6ms ping to AWS eu-central, which is less than
               | 100km by air from me. I get 114ms to AWS us-east-1, which
               | is roughly 6500km. Now 6500km / (2/3 * c) = ~32ms. So if
               | there were a fibre running in a straight line, time in
               | the fibre would be 32ms. Of course it isn't running in a
               | straight line, so let's say 50ms are pure "light
               | traveling through fibre". Switching all of that to
               | hollow-core would cut that to 33ms, so that's a savings
               | of 17ms or roughly 15% of my total latency.
               | 
               | This is still a very nice savings, but very far off from
               | cutting latency in half.
               | 
               | (Also, it's a single hop from my company network to DE-
               | CIX, one of the largest internet exchanges in the world,
               | so I feel confident saying my results aren't skewed by a
               | bad uplink.)
        
           | stcredzero wrote:
           | Also, as pointed out elsewhere, the number of hops is the
           | biggest contributor to latency.
        
         | oger wrote:
         | That could already be the case. Round trip time to the ~500km
         | orbit is about 4 milliseconds (+ all other network elements
         | before, after and in between). They claim to have a >5000km
         | link running for significant time. Now think of a fibre link of
         | that length and how many repeaters / routers will be needed due
         | to attenuation and physical constraints. I can clearly see a
         | path where Starlink laser links could be a viable option to
         | subsea cables - at least for some priority traffic...
        
           | baq wrote:
           | a few random outages which happened near places some
           | oligarch's yacht has visited recently and it'll become _the_
           | priority backhaul.
           | 
           | I see folks in the Pentagon doing a collective /phew that
           | this project is online in the next decade, multiple times.
        
         | ggreer wrote:
         | Optical fiber has an index of refraction of around 1.6, so
         | signals travel at around 0.6c. For a perfectly straight cross-
         | continental link (5,000km) with no delays from
         | amplification/retransmission, that's about 26 milliseconds.
         | Assuming the satellites are directly overhead, Starlink adds
         | another 500km up and down, making the minimum possible latency
         | around 20 milliseconds. The real number might be slightly
         | higher or lower depending on the location of the satellites.
         | 
         | My guess is the real latency depends mostly on the latency of
         | relay nodes (either satellites or routers on earth), not the
         | medium through which signals travel.
        
           | minhazm wrote:
           | Number of hops definitely matters more usually. For example
           | I'm about 150 miles from Azure East US 2 (richmond, va), and
           | at the speed of light that should be sub 2ms round trip, but
           | actual latency to it is ~30ms. But I'm sure I'm going through
           | dozens of switches/routers to get there. What Starlink buys
           | you is that you get to go straight to a satellite, then a
           | laser in a vacuum to other satellite(s) and then a ground
           | station that's likely already at an IXP or very close to one.
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | Could also be shit routing.
             | 
             | Some big ISPs here refused to locally peer with some
             | cheaper providers, so some packets to a local data centre
             | (5 miles away) in Toronto would round trip through Chicago
             | and back.
             | 
             | If they wanted a direct connection; they wanted them to pay
             | for transit.
        
         | oh_sigh wrote:
         | It's possible for starlink to beat radio, because radio can't
         | always go straight to the target. If I wanted a radio link from
         | NY->Tokyo, what would that path look like?
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | True, it would be bouncing around between ground and the
           | atmosphere (when it works at all).
        
           | ianburrell wrote:
           | It would look like the HF radio bouncing off the ionosphere.
           | I have contacted someone in Japan from Oregon. The downside
           | of HF is that the bandwidth is low with 30MHz across the
           | entire band.
           | 
           | There was company recently wanting to do high-frequency
           | trading on HF because of the quickest path.
        
             | oh_sigh wrote:
             | I'm curious how much the curved route affects the effective
             | speed of communication with skywaves. You also have many
             | situations where communication becomes impossible due to
             | space weather or other atmospheric phenomena.
        
         | 7e wrote:
         | Starlink adds a latency penalty of tens of milliseconds going
         | through the atmosphere. Each round trip is four hops through
         | the clouds. I expect most of this delay is forward error
         | correction, combined with lower bandwidth of the radios.
         | 
         | On top of that, you may have queuing in each satellite.
         | 
         | Finally, the satellite laser links aren't pointing exactly in
         | the direction you want to your packets to travel. They're at
         | some diagonal, and the packets need to tack back and forth,
         | which wastes distance. Think the streets of Manhattan.
        
       | bilinguliar wrote:
       | Are they using Mynaric technology?
        
         | axus wrote:
         | Internet says no: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/german-space-
         | lasers-company-...
        
       | jstummbillig wrote:
       | I have absolutely no idea how that number relates to any
       | comparable operation. Can anyone add a banana for scale?
        
         | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
         | 10 minutes of 4k video is ~30GB.
        
           | jstummbillig wrote:
           | Knowing the size of a video file is exactly not the
           | information, that would help me put this number in a
           | meaningful perspective with any comparable operation.
           | 
           | How do I think of 42 petabytes in terms of an ISP? Is that a
           | lot? How does it compare to other satellite providers? How
           | does it compare to 4G capacities? Is this a small country
           | worth of traffic or just any ol' data center? I have no
           | intuition about traffic at this scale.
        
             | theropost wrote:
             | 42 million gigabytes per day, or if we are working with
             | 30GB for 10min of 4k movies - 233,000 hours of ultra HD
             | movies per day
        
               | deathanatos wrote:
               | It's 42 PB per _day_ , though.
        
               | besnn00 wrote:
               | per day*
        
               | e12e wrote:
               | > 42 million gigabytes per second
               | 
               | Per day?
        
               | WheatMillington wrote:
               | Over estimating by a factor of 86,400.
        
               | MeImCounting wrote:
               | I still dont think this is what the OP was asking for.
               | This is in the context of an individual-HD video is an
               | individual perspective. More helpful would be a
               | comparison to say a small town or a major city or state.
        
           | SirMaster wrote:
           | I feel like this is a bad example.
           | 
           | Most people's experience with 4K video is through a streaming
           | service, and 10 minutes of 4K video on a streaming service is
           | more like 1-1.5 GB.
           | 
           | Or a UHD Disc perhaps where 10 minutes is 3.5-7 GB.
        
           | zetsurin wrote:
           | Based on 2160p movies i've seen around the very largest max
           | out at around 100, and 40 is more common, so this seems
           | wrong.
        
             | Thaxll wrote:
             | We're not talking pirated movie here, think Netflix and
             | Youtube.
        
               | caymanjim wrote:
               | Netflix and Youtube streams are less GB/hour than a
               | typical movie rip. Roughly 3GB/hour at 720p and 8GB/hour
               | at 4K. A decent-quality pirated 4K movie is more like
               | 20GB/hour. A high-quality rip is 40GB/hour.
        
         | colordrops wrote:
         | If you've got a laptop with a terrabyte drive, it would be
         | 42,000 full laptops worth of data.
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | Implementing a "comparable operation" to this satellite
           | network using laptops instead is going to be really expensive
           | fuel-wise, I think.
        
             | jonathankoren wrote:
             | "Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full
             | of tapes hurtling down the highway."
             | 
             | -- Andrew Tannenbaum
        
           | madeofpalk wrote:
           | If you have a laptop with a petabyte drive, it would be 42
           | full laptops worth of data!
        
             | colordrops wrote:
             | Might as well get a 42 petabyte drive.
        
         | whycome wrote:
         | > If you took a petabyte's worth of 1GB flash drives and lined
         | them up end to end, they would stretch over 92 football fields.
         | 
         | https://info.cobaltiron.com/blog/petabyte-how-much-informati...
        
           | organsnyder wrote:
           | That's actually a somewhat useful visual.
        
             | vikingerik wrote:
             | Not really unless you're using 1 GB flash drives from
             | fifteen years ago. 256 GB is now common, which would make
             | that petabyte less than 1 football field. (It's only 4096
             | such drives.)
        
               | dtgriscom wrote:
               | You can buy a 1TB microSD card for $150 now.
        
               | danparsonson wrote:
               | What a time to be alive! Even those of us without a
               | football field can lay out huge amounts of data in a
               | straight line.
        
               | tempmac wrote:
               | dang I can hear the youtube channel voice
        
               | ziddoap wrote:
               | > _Not really unless you 're using 1 GB flash drives from
               | fifteen years ago_
               | 
               | 1GB flash drives are still 1GB today.
               | 
               | > _256 GB is now common, which would make that petabyte
               | less than 1 football field. (It 's only 4096 such
               | drives.)_
               | 
               | If we're completely changing what we're using for scale,
               | you can fit a petabyte on ~10 100TB drives, which is like
               | 3% the length of an olympic swimming pool.
        
               | NooneAtAll3 wrote:
               | ...how large is a football field?
               | 
               | is it supposed to be actual football one or the field for
               | handegg?
        
               | aidenn0 wrote:
               | American Gridiron football, though Rugby League and Rugby
               | Union (two other forms of football) use similar length
               | fields/pitches. An Association Football pitch is almost
               | always longer than a Gridiron field, depending on how you
               | measure (it is typical to exclude the end-zones when
               | measuring a Gridiron field, and while Rugby and Gridiron
               | football have a playable area behind the goal (or try)
               | line, Association Football does not.
               | 
               | As a side-note Canadian Gridiron football uses a longer
               | field than American Gridiron football, though (measuring
               | between the goal lines) still slightly shorter than a
               | typical Association Football pitch.
               | 
               | Australian Rules Football is on a field typically longer
               | even than an Association Football pitch, though I don't
               | believe there is a regulation limiting the size.
        
         | permalac wrote:
         | EMBL-EBI's open transfer systems provide ~5PB of data each
         | month.
         | 
         | ftp.ebi.ac.uk for example.
        
         | stcredzero wrote:
         | Better yet, a work in a 35 foot long Twinkie.
        
         | new_user_final wrote:
         | Bangladesh, the whole country, usage 2,300Gbps as of 2021. So 1
         | Petabyte per hour?
         | 
         | Edit: It's international traffic. YouTube, Facebook video has
         | local cache server by ISP.
        
           | MeImCounting wrote:
           | This is a useful scale of comparison and what I think OP was
           | after
        
             | jstummbillig wrote:
             | OP agrees
        
         | theteapot wrote:
         | 486GB/s
        
         | nharada wrote:
         | Assuming it's a constant data transfer rate, this is 3,889
         | Gbps. This is
         | 
         | - About 4,000 customers worth of maxed out Gigabit internet
         | 
         | - ~243,000 simultaneous Netflix 4K streams
         | 
         | - 1.6% the capacity of the latest BlueMed undersea fiber cable
        
         | danbruc wrote:
         | According to a quick search the average US household is closing
         | in on 600 GB of traffic per month, that makes 42 PB per day the
         | internet traffic of 2.1 million households. Incidentally the
         | second picture in the article says 2.3M+ customers. With an US
         | average of 2.5 people per household that is the traffic of 5
         | million people or 1.5 % of the US population.
        
       | latchkey wrote:
       | I sit in my hot tub at night and see 1-2+ satellites go over
       | every single time I'm out there.
       | 
       | Which also makes me wonder how many of the shooting stars I've
       | seen recently are just old starlinks burning up.
        
         | gnrlst wrote:
         | How do you spot a satellite? I've never seen one.
        
           | kirubakaran wrote:
           | The Starlink ones look like Santa's sleigh
           | https://i.imgur.com/4S0vbfY.gif
        
             | qayxc wrote:
             | Only directly after deployment, though.
        
             | perilunar wrote:
             | Nice image. The Starlink V2 are bigger though, so fewer per
             | launch (~15 vs ~60).
        
           | giancarlostoro wrote:
           | Probably out in a rural area far enough away from a major
           | city its easier to see them.
        
           | TheAlchemist wrote:
           | It depends where you live certainly - if you live close to a
           | big city you will probably never see them. But there are
           | places - like New Zealand - where you can see them fairly
           | often. There are some online trackers you can use.
        
             | dmd wrote:
             | I live 10 miles from Boston and I've seen them a whole
             | bunch. I've used
             | https://james.darpinian.com/satellites/?special=starlink
        
           | latchkey wrote:
           | To me, they look like little white dots moving across the
           | sky. Brightness can change as they move too. It'll start off
           | bright and then as it goes away it eventually disappears
           | entirely. Since I usually sit in the same position in the hot
           | tub, I've come to notice that I usually see one of them cross
           | a pretty specific path from north to south, so I've gotten
           | used to looking in that part of the sky as I'm sitting there.
           | It happens so frequently, I get a little disappointed if I
           | don't see one!
           | 
           | Planes are similar, but tend to have flashing or colored
           | lights and obviously aren't as far away.
           | 
           | I'm in a big city, but close to the ocean so I have a bit
           | less light pollution. The city is also heavy military, so
           | that could be part of the frequency.
           | 
           | Update: if you're near any of the spacex launches, you can
           | watch the rocket too. I'm house sitting in Irvine, CA and saw
           | the Monday launch go right near the house. Amazing to watch
           | the plume from the rocket!
        
             | aqfamnzc wrote:
             | I guess they disappear as they approach the horizon because
             | the light is spread/absorbed too much by going through more
             | atmosphere?
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | I actually see them disappear long before they get to the
               | horizon. My guess is just less reflected light on
               | whatever is shiny on the satellite.
        
               | m2fkxy wrote:
               | that and/or entering the Earth penumbra.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | In higschool we did an experiment with one of our science
               | teachers based on this fact. We measured the duratuon of
               | the iridum flares and could use some basic geometry to
               | estimate how high their orbit is based on where the
               | shadow of the earth is.
               | 
               | I don't remember the details anymore, but it was one of
               | the coolest practical experiments we did.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | My impression was that you can only see them as they
               | reflect sunlight in your direction. As the angle formed
               | between you, the satellite and the sun changes, you will
               | first not see the satellite, then see, then not see it
               | again.
               | 
               | And of course, if it is 3am, and there is no sunlight at
               | any altitude because the sun is on the other side of the
               | world, no satellites are visible.
               | 
               | I could be wrong.
        
             | streb-lo wrote:
             | Just throwing this out there, but has anyone else seen
             | 'formations' of satellites? I've only seen them once but
             | there were about 5 to 10 (it was a while ago) of what I'm
             | assuming are satellites moving in a line formation at high
             | speeds across the night sky. They're too distant and too
             | fast to be planes so I'm assuming they are some sort of
             | military formation of satellites?
        
               | unwiredben wrote:
               | That's often a recently launched StarLink formation --
               | the bunch up in a line when deployed, and have to be
               | maneuvered over several weeks to spread out and take
               | different orbits.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | > They're too distant
               | 
               | I don't know how you would know that. People are very bad
               | at seeing distances at these scales.
               | 
               | If they were indeed satelites they could be starlink
               | satelites. They are put into orbit as a bunch together
               | and then they spread along their orbital path as they
               | take up their position.
               | 
               | This article has a picture, maybe you can check if it is
               | similar to what you have seen?
               | https://earthsky.org/space/spacex-starlink-satellites-
               | explai...
               | 
               | If you could recall more details then maybe we can figure
               | out more exactly what this might have been. (Such as
               | where you were, which direction you were looking at, when
               | did this happen, how fast did they cross the sky and how
               | far the dots were from each other. Were the line spread
               | in the direction they were moving or sideways?)
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | I saw ISS in formation with visiting spacecraft a couple
               | times - once with Space Shuttle back in the day and at
               | least once with Dragon. Looks pretty interesting. :)
        
           | qayxc wrote:
           | If the seeing is good it's actually possible to spot up
           | hundred satellites with the unaided eye. Due to light
           | pollution, it's unlikely to spot one in most places, though.
           | The ISS at least should be easily visible due to its size,
           | even in places that aren't particularly dark.
        
           | flir wrote:
           | Even in a city you stand a chance if you've got high walls
           | around you. A courtyard garden for example. Just lie back and
           | stare up.
        
           | qwertox wrote:
           | It's usually a somewhat like a fast moving little but visible
           | star. Fast as in it would usually cross 1/4 of the visible
           | sky within 20 seconds or so.
           | 
           | You should try to find one once, with the help of an app.
           | It's not that difficult.
        
           | embedded_hiker wrote:
           | The easiest satellite to see is the ISS. NASA provides times
           | when it can be seen from any given place. I subscribe to the
           | SpotTheStation mailing list.
           | 
           | In general, you can see a satellite when it is overhead and
           | illuminated by the sun. In the evening, it will appear in the
           | west, moving towards the east ( almost all satellites go this
           | way, not just ISS ). As it goes farther east, heading towards
           | darkness, it will fade away. The ISS is bright enough to see
           | a reddish tinge as it passes through sunset light.
           | 
           | Shooting stars go much faster than satellites.
        
             | yencabulator wrote:
             | Yeah. With Starlink satellites, you need a lot of luck with
             | the conditions to see them. I've seen them a handful of
             | times and I'm in a relatively dark sky location.
             | 
             | ISS is often visible in the middle of the day even in
             | bright midday Southwest sun, if you know where & when to
             | look.
        
           | drynewton wrote:
           | https://james.darpinian.com/satellites/ Put in your location
           | and it will tell you when and where to look at the sky to see
           | one. Works great for me and hopefully it will work for you.
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | 1. The satellite needs to be passing overhead at an angle
           | where you can see it, and clear skies etc.
           | 
           | 2. The sky needs to be dark enough to see it (so twilight or
           | night)
           | 
           | 3. The satellite needs to be illuminated by the sun.
           | 
           | 4. The satellite needs to reflect enough light that you can
           | see it.
           | 
           | Basically this happens just before sunrise, and just after
           | sunset. So the ground and sky are dark (allowing you to see
           | through the atmosphere), and the satellite - being at high
           | altitude - is still illuminated.
           | 
           | As they pass overhead, you can often see them suddenly vanish
           | as they pass into the Earth's shadow.
           | 
           | The International Space Station is a good one to find, as
           | it's quite bright (very large).
           | 
           | There are various websites and apps; some phone apps use the
           | GPS and magnetometer to show you what direction and time to
           | look, and a search tool to look for visible objects at your
           | location. It used to be really good with the old Iridium
           | satellites, which gave a bright flash due to their large flat
           | antennas.
        
             | WanderPanda wrote:
             | I remember chasing one of the iridium flares and it was
             | very bright, even during the day
        
             | carlosjobim wrote:
             | In short: after sunset.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | > Basically this happens just before sunrise, and just
             | after sunset.
             | 
             | I've seen plenty of satellites in the middle of the night,
             | from very dark areas (wilderness). They look like stars,
             | only they move more quickly. These observations go back a
             | decade, at least.
        
               | burnished wrote:
               | That doesn't seem right, why would they be bright?
        
               | steve_adams_86 wrote:
               | They reflect sunlight for some period of the evening and
               | morning, before the sun is shining where you are and
               | illluminating the sky too much.
        
               | KeplerBoy wrote:
               | so not in the middle of the night.
        
               | CrazyStat wrote:
               | That depends on the altitude. GPS satellites at 10000km
               | can be lit up in the middle of the night. Starlink
               | satellites at 500km can't.
        
               | KeplerBoy wrote:
               | Ah yes, of course you're right. After all the moon is
               | nothing but a satellite either.
        
               | wolverine876 wrote:
               | Between when the sun first disappears below the horizon
               | and when (nearly) all its light disappears, i.e., the end
               | of astronomical twilight when the Sun's center is 18 deg
               | below the horizon, seems to be about 90 minutes.
               | 
               | https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/different-types-
               | twilig...
               | 
               | It's been awhile, but I'm pretty sure I've seen these
               | much later than that. I'm talking about lying in a
               | sleeping bag, looking up at the amazing starfields of
               | pitch-black wilderness nights (tip: never use a tent
               | except in extremis - look what you're missing!).
        
               | jfoutz wrote:
               | I grew up in a rural area, on a moonless night, without a
               | fire, as well as giving your vision some time to adjust
               | to the darkness, you can see crazy amounts of stars along
               | the Milky Way plane.
               | 
               | I would guess, reflected moonlight (moon over the
               | horizon) would be enough to light up the dot well enough
               | to see unaided.
        
               | wolverine876 wrote:
               | That's a very good question. I'm sure of what I've seen,
               | many times over years:
               | 
               | I can tell you that they look like stars - so much that I
               | need a reference point, an actual star or planet, to
               | verify they are moving and not a 'stationary' star
               | (judging movement being otherwise very difficult at that
               | distance). They move very steadily, horizon to horizon,
               | or as far as I can track them. A wild guess, based on
               | memory, is one might take 5 or 10 minutes to cross
               | between my horizons (usually I'm not on a plain - trees,
               | hills, mountains may elevate my 'horizons' and reduce the
               | distance).
               | 
               | Natural celestial object? No way a star is moving that
               | fast relative to other stars and Earth's horizons.
               | Asteroid? That seems hard to believe, due to size and
               | illumination. Comet? Are there lots of tiny ones? I never
               | see tails. Maybe a meteorite entering the atmosphere that
               | doesn't yet have a tail?
               | 
               | Other human-made objects? Airplanes would look bigger and
               | have colored, blinking lights - I've seen plenty of
               | airplanes at night. Maybe there are higher flying
               | airplanes without the colored and blinking lights? Are
               | they illuminated whitish, and so far away they'd look
               | like stars?
               | 
               | I've seen them so many times, I'm confident that I could
               | take anyone to a wilderness area on a clear night and
               | find one within 15-20 minutes, probably less.
        
               | wkat4242 wrote:
               | > A wild guess, based on memory, is one might take 5 or
               | 10 minutes to cross between my horizons (usually I'm not
               | on a plain - trees, hills, mountains may elevate my
               | 'horizons' and reduce the distance).
               | 
               | Yup 5-10 minutes is right. It depends on the orbit
               | altitude and the height of the pass.
               | 
               | You can use sat tracker apps to identify which one you're
               | seeing. I do this sometimes because I'm a ham radio
               | operator and I track the one I want to use sometimes with
               | a directional antenna.
               | 
               | > No way a star is moving that fast relative to other
               | stars
               | 
               |  _No_ star moves relative to other stars when viewed from
               | earth. They are all so far away they appear static. The
               | starscape rotates as a whole (well it doesn 't, the earth
               | does, but to the observer it seems that way), but
               | relative to each other they absolutely don't move.
               | 
               | If they do move, it is definitely a sign to stop drinking
               | :) :)
               | 
               | > Asteroid? That seems hard to believe, due to size and
               | illumination.
               | 
               | Also asteroids move way faster across the sky than a
               | satellite. And they're rare except during that time of
               | the year when they're really common.
               | 
               | > Comet? Are there lots of tiny ones? I never see tails.
               | 
               | Comets are incredibly rare in this galactic
               | neighbourhood.
               | 
               | > and Earth's horizons. Asteroid? That seems hard to
               | believe, due to size and illumination. Comet? Are there
               | lots of tiny ones? I never see tails.
        
               | mr_toad wrote:
               | > Asteroid? That seems hard to believe, due to size and
               | illumination.
               | 
               | And the distance - most asteroids pass by much further
               | out than even the moon, so their motion would be hard to
               | detect.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | I was mostly referring to the brightest things like the
               | ISS, Starlink and (formerly) Iridium satellites, which
               | are in low Earth orbit.
               | 
               | Higher orbits are visible for longer, due to the angles
               | involved: because they're so high, such satellites can
               | remain illuminated with the Sun further below the
               | horizon. The Moon is the most extreme example: it's
               | almost never in Earth's shadow.
        
               | wolverine876 wrote:
               | > because they're so high, such satellites can remain
               | illuminated with the Sun further below the horizon. The
               | Moon is the most extreme example: it's almost never in
               | Earth's shadow.
               | 
               | Very good point.
        
           | pxeger1 wrote:
           | My tip is that the very central part of your field of view
           | has worse night vision than the rest (trading off for higher
           | resolution instead), so if you spot something moving in your
           | peripheral vision, don't try to look straight at it or it'll
           | disappear; instead, look slightly to the side, and it'll be
           | easier to see (although maybe blurrier).
        
           | nativeit wrote:
           | It takes several minutes for your eyesight to adjust enough
           | to spot them with the naked eye. You can use websites to know
           | when one is likely to pass overhead. Choose a suitable time
           | (see: everyone else, basically right after dusk), and then
           | lie down and stare up about 15-minutes ahead. Mushrooms are
           | optional, they increase the chances of seeing _something_ but
           | decrease the chance that what you saw was real.
        
           | wkat4242 wrote:
           | I can guarantee you you have.
           | 
           | You probably just thought it was a star or a plane. They move
           | but relatively slowly (even a fast LEO sat will cover the sky
           | in about 5 minutes). They look just like a star apart from
           | moving slowly. Depending on angles they can look pretty dim,
           | especially the latest SpaceX sats. But the ISS is usually
           | really bright because it's so huge and technically it's also
           | a satellite.
           | 
           | You can tell them apart from a plane because they don't
           | flash.
           | 
           | Edit: But yes there are several conditions that need to be
           | met to see them like the other posters have mentioned. But
           | every clear night near dusk or dawn you will see sats for
           | sure. There are just so damn many in LEO now.
        
             | hengistbury wrote:
             | Some satellites do appear to flash because they are
             | tumbling: https://www.satobs.org/tumble/tumbleintro.html
             | 
             | The flashing of satellites will generally be gentler than
             | the short burst strobing of an aircraft.
        
         | qayxc wrote:
         | > Which also makes me wonder how many of the shooting stars
         | I've seen recently are just old starlinks burning up.
         | 
         | Probably close to none. The lifetime of the satellites is about
         | 5 years give or take. According to this page [1], a total of
         | 355 satellites have deorbited over the past roughly 5 years.
         | That's an average of about 71 per year or about one every 5
         | days.
         | 
         | Since planned disposals are done over uninhabited areas (e.g.
         | the pacific ocean), the likelihood of spotting one is very low.
         | 
         | Hope that helps answer your question, even it wasn't
         | necessarily meant seriously :)                   [1]
         | https://starlinkinsider.com/starlink-launch-statistics/
        
           | latchkey wrote:
           | No, I love this data! Thank you.
        
           | aetherspawn wrote:
           | If someone makes a mistake and the satellite deorbits in the
           | wrong place, am I likely to be impaled by a satellite screw
           | or something travelling at terminal velocity?
        
             | latchkey wrote:
             | China is still working on those reusable rockets...
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDufpRp57ok
        
             | oconnor663 wrote:
             | No, they burn up. You can think of how much work goes into
             | the heat shields on spacecraft that are supposed to survive
             | reentry. Satellites have none of that.
        
               | scottlamb wrote:
               | I also think a screw at terminal velocity might not be
               | particularly dangerous, similar to the popular "will a
               | penny dropped off the empire skyscraper kill you?"
               | question.
               | 
               | ...which I suppose is closely related. The deorbiting
               | satellite burns up because all that potential energy goes
               | into heat because of the ~friction~ [edit: compression,
               | thanks for the correction] that limits it to that low
               | terminal velocity.
        
               | iamgopal wrote:
               | Heat is Not because of friction but compression of air
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | Starlinks are actually built so that nothing sizeable
               | remains at all after reentry. This even delayed the laser
               | coms a bit, as the original laser mirrors were too sturdy
               | & so pieces of them could theoretically make it through.
        
             | mlindner wrote:
             | Actually the person you replied to somewhat incorrectly.
             | They're not targeted re-entries because the on-board
             | propulsion of Starlink is too low to precisely control the
             | re-entry location. However instead the satellites are
             | designed to be intentionally "demisable" meaning that every
             | portion of the satellite should vaporize/turn to char/dust
             | during re-entry.
             | 
             | Put another way, every kilogram of Starlink spacecraft has
             | as much energy "stored" in it's motion as around 4-5 tons
             | of TNT.
        
               | weregiraffe wrote:
               | You mean 4-5 kg of TNT. Starlink is not relativistic yet.
        
               | qayxc wrote:
               | > Actually the person you replied to somewhat
               | incorrectly. They're not targeted re-entries because the
               | on-board propulsion of Starlink is too low to precisely
               | control the re-entry location.
               | 
               | SpaceX says otherwise, see [1]                  SpaceX
               | spokesman James Gleeson, when asked about the 10
               | satellites, said SpaceX is "performing a controlled de-
               | orbit of several first iteration Starlink satellites,"
               | using onboard propulsion.
               | 
               | There's a difference between unscheduled deorbiting (as
               | happened to about 40 satellites after a solar storm in
               | February 2022) and a scheduled deorbiting manoeuvre
               | trigged by ground control. Starlink satellites use
               | electric on-board propulsion (Krypton powered Hall
               | thrusters) that doesn't run out as quickly as chemical or
               | cold gas gas thrusters. There's also not much precision
               | needed to avoid major population centres - Earth is
               | pretty big after all.
               | 
               | [1] https://spacenews.com/spacex-launches-fourth-batch-
               | of-starli...
        
           | macspoofing wrote:
           | >The lifetime of the satellites is about 5 years give or
           | take. According to this page [1], a total of 355 satellites
           | have deorbited over the past roughly 5 years.
           | 
           | Wow ... is it economical to replace the entire constellation
           | every 5 years? How does the business side work? Or is it just
           | a great money-burning party?
        
             | try_the_bass wrote:
             | This is a large part of why they're pushing so hard on
             | Starship. Falcon 9 is great and wildly economical, but it's
             | not enough to make Starlink profitable in the long term.
             | They need Starship to make that happen.
             | 
             | They also want to make Starlink satellites bigger, which
             | also requires Starship's much larger diameter.
        
         | steve_adams_86 wrote:
         | There are so many that I spot them with my telescope while
         | watching the sky with some frequency. In the last year I've
         | probably caught 6 or so. It's just a spot of light passing
         | through the view, nothing spectacular, but I think it would
         | have been virtually impossible 20 years ago.
        
         | whalesalad wrote:
         | The first time I saw the long line of starlink satellites in a
         | dark rural area it was unreal. Straight up looked like aliens
         | invading.
        
         | meroes wrote:
         | As someone who also spends a decent amount of time outside at
         | night, do you also see a ton of shooting stars?
         | 
         | I see them 1/3 of the time in outside for 30 minutes or more
         | I'd say. Thought they were much rarer. Only seems a Starlinkn
         | train once.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | But how do they beam copies of the space to space links down for
       | wiretapping, as Iridium does?
        
         | supertrope wrote:
         | At the ground stations
        
           | inemesitaffia wrote:
           | GS is layer 2. It's done at the POP's like every other
           | company
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | Starlink is rolling out "direct to cell" connections, where
           | the satellites connect directly to GSM cell phones. Is any
           | ground station involved in a cell to cell call?
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | You could imagine a situation where they can do that.
             | 
             | But practically what happens is the phone connects to a
             | sat, the sat connects to a local ground station, then
             | across conventional fiber to another ground station, up to
             | a sat and then down to the other phones.
             | 
             | The are likely doing that because regulation and so on. But
             | the do what you suggest.
        
               | Animats wrote:
               | That wastes half the bandwidth of the system. Will Musk
               | put up with that?
        
       | 7e wrote:
       | If I send one byte and it hops through ten satellites, is SpaceX
       | counting that as ten bytes of data?
        
       | why_at wrote:
       | Random thought I just had: What are the odds of a rocket launch
       | crossing through one of these laser links on its way to a higher
       | orbit and disrupting traffic for a fraction of a second?
       | 
       | I know space is really big and so the odds of a rocket hitting a
       | satellite on its way up are incredibly low, but now we're talking
       | about lots of lines between each satellite rather than just the
       | satellites themselves. Are the odds still tiny?
       | 
       | Not that it would be a big deal if it happened, just curiosity.
        
         | elevatedastalt wrote:
         | I think they are still tiny. Also don't networking systems
         | routinely deal with temporary link disruption?
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | What does that have to do with the odds of rocket induced
           | dropped packets?
        
             | pests wrote:
             | Any rocket induced dropped packets will just be resent
             | after the rocket has passed or will be routed over other
             | links.
             | 
             | Lets not forget about clouds, birds, airplanes, hot hair
             | balloons and tons of other things that separate the ground
             | from space.
             | 
             | We have protocols and networks already designed today that
             | deal with this exact problem.
        
               | wrboyce wrote:
               | I don't think there are many birds, aeroplanes, nor hot
               | air balloons in LEO? Are there?! (I doubt clouds too, but
               | meteorological phenomena perhaps?)
        
               | belthesar wrote:
               | I think the GP is saying that we already deal with these
               | problems with downlinks, so accounting for similar
               | problems on crosslinks is a known, and expected quantity.
        
               | pests wrote:
               | Yes thank you, forgot to link everything together. We
               | already have point-to-point optical and deal with these
               | issues.
        
         | versteegen wrote:
         | > the odds of a rocket hitting a satellite on its way up are
         | incredibly low
         | 
         | Aside, but it's not left to chance. They only launch when
         | there's a gap in the space traffic.
        
           | bdamm wrote:
           | Fair, but they don't compute and probably can't know the
           | laser paths between Starlink nodes.
        
         | ra wrote:
         | It doesn't matter what the odds are; loss of connectivity is
         | going to happen. Packet loss is common across the internet,
         | fortunately we have protocols that can deal with this.
        
         | burnished wrote:
         | Interesting question. It used to be zero, before the satellites
         | and before the rockets, but now is probably not zero.
         | 
         | I think you could take the time a rocket would be in the way
         | and compare it to the time it would take any given satellite
         | link pair to make an orbit to form an estimate of the chance of
         | a single interference. Then multiply by rockets and satellite
         | pairs to form an overall estimate.
        
           | MadnessASAP wrote:
           | I've done some research, I don't have a probability but from
           | what I've found. A Falcon 9 shortly before stage 1 separation
           | is around 50km altitude[0] doing ~2000 m/s. Preseperation the
           | F9 is 70m tall, add 130m for plume[1] so 200m total. At 2000
           | m/s it'll cover it's own length and plume in 100ms. If the
           | laser link is running at 100 Gbps that's 10Gb of data lost.
           | 
           | Which is actually a lot more then I estimated when I started
           | this math, kinda puts into perspective more then 1 of the
           | scales at play here.
           | 
           | Tl;dr Rockets are fast, data is apparently faster.
           | 
           | [0] Apparently on its longest distance link Starlink
           | intersected 30km altitude
           | 
           | [1] Ref: my ass
        
         | andy_ppp wrote:
         | It's absolutely incredibly small, think of how large the
         | surface area of a sphere of LEO and the surface area of these
         | lasers linking the vertices of the 5,289 satellites. The gaps
         | between them are probably hundreds of kilometres. I would
         | imagine that each link has multiple routes so if there was a
         | failure traffic can still be routed in the same way the
         | Internet has many routes.
         | 
         | https://satellitemap.space is pretty amazing but a Starlink
         | satellite looks massive on there, really at the scales we are
         | talking they wouldn't even be a pixel. Do we know how many of
         | the satellites are actually interlinked by lasers?
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | There's no friction in space. So the question is not how wide
           | the plume of a rocket engine gets, but how spread out does
           | the vapor trail need to be before it stops being an optical
           | impediment?
        
             | andy_ppp wrote:
             | Volume is even larger than area...
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | You're being condescending. That belongs on Reddit, not
               | here.
               | 
               | If you're in low earth orbit you're traveling through
               | rocket exhaust. That doesn't mean you're seeing enough to
               | affect optical transmission gain. Or orbital decay. But
               | the notion that you're going to miss because there's
               | 100's of kilometers between fast moving satellites?
               | That's the part of this conversation that deserves
               | condescension, if anything.
        
               | andy_ppp wrote:
               | Until one of us does the actually maths and builds a
               | model of the probability of intersection I guess our
               | intuition on this being different is fairly irrelevant,
               | either of us could be wrong. I didn't really think much
               | about my comment, maybe it was patronising I don't know.
               | I try not to treat the comments I write here (or receive
               | here either) with much seriousness, often you can take
               | most things I say here as me thinking out loud rather
               | than some planned sarcasm or as you say Reddit type
               | posting.
        
       | therealmarv wrote:
       | I hate that PCMag ignores browser preferred language lists. It
       | switches the language on my geo IP address which is a language I
       | cannot read.
        
         | shoelessone wrote:
         | This is a serious annoyance for me all day long, across the
         | internet. Have you found most sites respect your preferred
         | languages list?
        
           | Symbiote wrote:
           | For Google, I found setting my browser to "Accept-Language:
           | en,sv" when I live in Denmark was sufficient -- just English
           | and they seem to assume I can't configure the browser and
           | want the local language.
           | 
           | PCMag serves me English, with "en-GB,en", though I don't know
           | if they would support Danish anyway.
        
       | joshspankit wrote:
       | I'm waiting for two things:
       | 
       | 1. Full-circumference world round-trip latency sat to sat (yes it
       | has to go to ground to "count" but I just want to know what the
       | number is)
       | 
       | 2. Deployed LEO servers running with laser communication to the
       | Starlink satellites. Preferably gaming or CDN since either is a
       | great way to verifiably test the limits.
        
       | mrb wrote:
       | So that is "432 Mbit/s per laser, and 9000 lasers total". I don't
       | know you guys but I find that statement much more relatable than
       | "42 PB/day". Interestingly, they also say each laser "can sustain
       | a 100Gbps connection per link" (although another part of the
       | article even claims 200 Gbit/s). That means each laser is grossly
       | underused on average, at 0.432% of its maximum capacity. Which
       | makes sense since 100 Gbit/s is probably achievable in ideal
       | situations (eg. 2 satellites very close to each other), so these
       | laser links are used in bursts and the link stays established
       | only for a few tens of seconds or minutes, until the satellites
       | move away and no longer are within line of sight of each other.
       | 
       | And with 2.3M customers, that's an average 1.7 Mbit/s per
       | customer, or 550 GB per customer per month, which is kinda high.
       | The average American internet user probably consumes less than
       | 100 GB/month. (HN readers are probably outliers; I consume about
       | 1 TB/month).
        
         | garciasn wrote:
         | Netflix uses 3-7GB an hour. The average person is spending
         | 4-5hrs a day watching TV. I'd say most are above 100GB/month.
         | 
         | But that's me.
        
           | kuchenbecker wrote:
           | Do you have a source on the 4-5 hrs?
        
             | garciasn wrote:
             | https://www.statista.com/statistics/420791/daily-video-
             | conte...
             | 
             | 300+ minutes a day for TV + vMOD (streaming services).
             | Since no one actually watches TV anymore, at least not
             | through traditional TV, I summed them.
        
           | carlhjerpe wrote:
           | Yep, but that data originates from the providers network and
           | never leave the providers network, so they probably don't
           | count it towards your usage the same way.
           | 
           | I don't think that breaks net neutrality either, which the
           | FCC seems to be reimplementing
           | 
           | Edit: see https://openconnect.netflix.com/en/
        
             | ajross wrote:
             | They absolutely count it the same way. Comcast just gives
             | me a number for bytes used, with a limit of (IIRC) 1.2TB
             | above which they start metering. Our family of four comes
             | dances around hitting that basically every month. The
             | biggest consumer actually isn't video, is my teenage
             | gamer's propensity for huge game downloads (also giant mod
             | packs that then break his setup and force reinstall of the
             | original content).
             | 
             | I think a few hundred GB for a typical cord-cut household
             | is about right.
        
             | joecool1029 wrote:
             | All my data usage is over LTE and NR. On one line it mostly
             | gets used for streaming video (YouTube,plex,twitch) and
             | averages around 500GB/mo. I rent a line to a friend and
             | he's doing over 10TB/mo on mostly machine learning stuff
             | and astronomy data.
             | 
             | T-Mobile absolutely counts all data used over the network,
             | my voice lines go QCI 9 (they are normally QCI 6) when over
             | 50GB of any kind of data usage each month, the home
             | internet lines are always QCI 9. I don't have congestion in
             | my area so it does not affect my speeds. This is QoS
             | prioritization that happens at physical sector level on the
             | tower(s).
        
             | ancientworldnow wrote:
             | This obviously has no relevance for starlink which does not
             | have local datacenters for cdn purposes. All that bandwidth
             | is going through the satellites right before it reaches the
             | user.
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | I wouldn't be surprised if starlink doesn't at least
               | experiment with making the satellites a big bunch of CDN
               | nodes.
               | 
               | Imagine they put 10TB of flash memory on the satellites
               | and run virtual machines for the big CDN companies
               | (cloudflare, Google, Netflix etc).
               | 
               | I reckon that 10TB is still big enough to service a good
               | little chunk of internet traffic.
        
               | vardump wrote:
               | I guess the problem is that most of the useful bits of
               | that 10 TB are going to be most of the time somewhere far
               | away from the target audience.
               | 
               | You have to share that 10 TB with everything on that
               | satellite's orbit.
        
               | oger wrote:
               | Definitely sounds like a no-brainer / reasonable next
               | step.
               | 
               | Most ISPs have CND appliances in their racks to save on
               | uplink bandwidth. And from a satellite perspective the
               | uplink (in this scenario: the downlink from the satellite
               | to the gateway) definitely is the expensive bottleneck.
               | 
               | You want to avoid congestion and every bit of caching
               | could be helpful.
               | 
               | Then it comes down to the mass and power budget (and the
               | reliability of flash drives in space) - but that doesn't
               | seem too terrible.
        
           | seemaze wrote:
           | Who has 4-5 hrs a day to watch television? ..or am I
           | completely out of touch?
        
             | edude03 wrote:
             | _actively_ watch? Probably not many. Having it on as
             | background noise however? 5 hours is pretty easy
        
               | colordrops wrote:
               | Is that still a thing with young people? I associate
               | leaving the TV on in the background as an older
               | generation thing.
        
               | dguest wrote:
               | I'm middle aged. This kind of background noise sounds
               | terrible to me.
               | 
               | Maybe I just grew up in a quiet place.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | There are people who like to hear other humans blathering
               | on all around them. Then there are sane people.
               | 
               | We're outnumbered.
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | John Von Neumann liked to do math with the TV on as
               | background noise. Genius.
        
               | jimmy76615 wrote:
               | I heard all those stories about Von Neumann working like
               | that. According to a biography, his wife once designated
               | a room as his office and he became very angry about that
               | since it was too quiet for him to work there.
               | 
               | Personally I need almost complete silence in order to get
               | anything done, his abilities in this regard always
               | fascinated me.
        
               | extraduder_ire wrote:
               | It's just a different kind of environmental requirement.
               | 
               | It's useful for some people to have recognisable sounds
               | going on while they work, so they have something to latch
               | their focus if they lose it for a second. Whether that be
               | music, or every seinfeld episode on a shuffled loop on
               | the TV.
               | 
               | I have found it useful in the past to listen through
               | every song I have on shuffle while I read, which was nice
               | when I took a few-seconds break every couple of pages and
               | came across a song I wouldn't have picked out otherwise.
               | Alt-tabbing out of a podcast or something completely
               | wrecks my focus on both for some reason though.
        
               | lukan wrote:
               | It _is_ terrible, yet quite some people rather have that
               | distracting noise, than hear their own thoughts.
               | 
               | For some it is just the illusion of having more people
               | around them, though.
        
               | msp26 wrote:
               | When you have permanent background noise in the form of
               | Tinnitus already it's an improvement.
        
               | offices wrote:
               | I grew up being accustomed to having the TV as background
               | noise but stopped watching it when I moved out. Now, when
               | I visit my parents, it's honestly quite difficult for me
               | to focus on conversation - there's a machine in the
               | corner making deliberately attention-grabbing sights and
               | sounds. So I think your experience is normal & I
               | empathise with the generation that complained about TV
               | ruining family life.
        
               | psd1 wrote:
               | Same and same and same, but I know exactly why I won't
               | leave the telly on - I'm very susceptible. It grabs me.
               | Even though I have no interest in ads or even 95% of
               | programming. It's not a pleasant feeling.
        
               | thecatspaw wrote:
               | I mean I use youtube lets plays or twitch streams for
               | that, but yes its still a thing.
        
               | fennecfoxy wrote:
               | If Millennial still = young then yeah, YT or something in
               | background on TV, doing something on laptop (dev, or
               | photo editing or other) and then occasionally phone over
               | laptop as well to reply to chats and stuff.
               | 
               | I would kill for some decent high res wide fov AR
               | glasses.
        
               | Izkata wrote:
               | Millennials are currently in their late 20s to early 40s.
        
               | GoblinSlayer wrote:
               | It's a normie thing coping with unbearable ringing
               | emptiness of mind. My sister and niece (7yo) do it.
        
             | hprotagonist wrote:
             | watch, or leave running as background noise ...
        
               | Tempest1981 wrote:
               | Any recommendations for shows that make good background
               | noise? I wish they had more concerts.
        
               | MeImCounting wrote:
               | Happy british baking children! I dont know what its
               | called but it is on netflix and they are indeed happy,
               | british and they bake. Or just put on Asianometry if you
               | need to focus a bit more. I must have been through his
               | back log a dozen times at this point. There is something
               | about that mans voice that helps relax and focus like
               | nothing else
        
               | alickz wrote:
               | the ones i see most often are: The Office, Futurama,
               | Simpsons, Friends, Brooklyn 99, How It's Made (my
               | favourite)
               | 
               | kids these days mostly use youtube or twitch for
               | background noise i think
        
               | sublinear wrote:
               | For me it depends on what I'm doing. During working hours
               | I have Soma FM playing at a low volume. Otherwise I'll
               | probably have cooking videos or history documentaries
               | playing as the background noise.
        
               | GoblinSlayer wrote:
               | Shouldn't audio (radio) suffice for that?
        
               | Cheer2171 wrote:
               | "What's a radio?" the kids ask.
        
             | Brybry wrote:
             | According to historical Nielsen data[1] from 1991 to 2009:
             | most Americans.
             | 
             | Even back to 1950, for per household data, it was above 4
             | hours.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2009/average-tv-
             | viewing-for...
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Thats per household, not per person. That's different.
               | And households also tended to get smaller.
        
               | Brybry wrote:
               | The 1991 data and on was 4+ hours per person (older than
               | 2). 7-8 hours per household.
               | 
               | They didn't have per person for the 1950 to 1990 data,
               | only household (pdf in the link).
        
               | solardev wrote:
               | 2022 data from the BLS:
               | https://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t11A.htm
               | 
               | Men spent 3 hours a day watching TV, and women 2.5 hours.
               | But TV time is lower (around 2 hrs/day) from ages 20-44,
               | then increases again after 45 and peaks at 75 years old
               | at nearly 5 hours a day.
               | 
               | Households _without_ kids watch more TV, which surprised
               | me.
        
               | Brybry wrote:
               | That's a nice find. I think BLS leisure time data is from
               | the American Time Use Survey [1] which I think is asking
               | something similar to this questionnaire [2] on page 22.
               | 
               | I'm not sure that's saying _household_ time. For example,
               | when they survey a household it wasn 't clear to me if
               | they survey everyone in the household or just one person.
               | If it's one person then it sounds like they collect how
               | that one person (age 15+) spent their own time and if
               | there were kids in their household.
               | 
               | So then it'd be accurate to say that individuals in
               | households _without_ kids watch more TV as a singular
               | activity (the survey doesn 't allow simultaneous
               | activities).
               | 
               | In comparison Nielsen used TV viewing diaries and
               | automated data collection meters. You could have the TV
               | on in the background while doing chores and it would
               | still count.
               | 
               | It's interesting that the 2009 ATUS survey [3] had a 2.82
               | hour/person average because that's fairly different from
               | the Nielsen data (4 hours 49 minutes/person).
               | 
               | I wonder if this difference is people underreporting in
               | ATUS or Nielsen overreporting or a factor of differences
               | in limitations in ATUS (no simultaneous activities
               | allowed, 15+ age limitation) or Nielsen.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/atus/data.htm
               | 
               | [2] https://www.bls.gov/tus/questionnaires/tuquestionnair
               | e.pdf
               | 
               | [3] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/atus_062220
               | 10.pdf
        
             | dr_dshiv wrote:
             | Children, sadly.
        
             | adl wrote:
             | Families sharing an internet connection. Kids watch 1 o 2
             | hours each, mom and dad another hour each.
        
         | tonetegeatinst wrote:
         | Yeah 1TB seems average for anyone in IT who is really into
         | data.
         | 
         | I'm kinda pissed their is no local ISP competition in my
         | area....and iv tried reaching out to companies with little
         | success...or they say were expanding to your area soon but will
         | not say when.
         | 
         | 10GB symmetric fiber isn't hard. Hell I'd use more bandwidth if
         | I could but I'm stuck with no fiber atm
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | Data might get counted multiple times as it takes many laser
         | hops to reach its destination.
        
           | mrb wrote:
           | Good point.
        
         | yosito wrote:
         | I think the average Instagram or TikTok user must be using more
         | than 100GB/month. And if you count YouTube and Netflix, it's
         | probably more than that.
        
           | calvinmorrison wrote:
           | Is resolution going to peak? Like speeding on a highway are
           | there diminishing returns? On the other hand, bandwidth
           | availability seems to also drive demand...
        
             | tw04 wrote:
             | > Is resolution going to peak?
             | 
             | It should. At some point you are beyond any difference a
             | human eye can detect on a tv or monitor you're sitting less
             | than 10ft away from.
             | 
             | It probably won't though because capitalism means there has
             | to be a reason to sell you a new widget and 3D was an utter
             | failure.
        
             | spense wrote:
             | > Is resolution going to peak?
             | 
             | not for awhile. apple vision / oculus will stream (4k/8k)
             | 3d movies.
             | 
             | https://developer.apple.com/streaming/examples/
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | Sure, but "4k" is still being used as a differentiator for
             | streaming companies in how much they charge. Even then they
             | serve up some pretty compressed streams where there's room
             | to do less of that for a noticeable notch in quality.
             | 
             | There's of course a limit. The "native" bitrate equivalent
             | of your retina isn't infinite.
             | 
             | Next step though is going to be lightfield displays (each
             | "pixel" is actually a tiny display with a lens that
             | produces "real" 3D images) and I assume that will be a
             | thing, we shall see if it does better than the last
             | generation of 3D TVs/movies/etc. That's a big bump in
             | bitrate.
             | 
             | There's also bitrate for things like game/general computing
             | screen streaming where you need lots of overhead to make
             | the latency work, you can't buffer several seconds of that.
             | 
             | The next gen sci-fi of more integrated sensory experiences
             | is certainly going to be a thing eventually too. Who knows
             | how much information that will need.
             | 
             | When more bandwidth becomes available, new things become
             | possible, sometimes that are hard to imagine before
             | somebody gets bored and tries to figure it out.
             | 
             | When I'm futzing around with ML models, I'm loading tens of
             | gigabytes from disk into memory. Eventually something like
             | that and things orders of magnitude larger will probably be
             | streamed over the network like nothing. PCIe 4.0 x16 is,
             | what 32 GBps? Why not that over a network link for every
             | device in the house in 10 years?
        
             | numpad0 wrote:
             | Two things:
             | 
             | Resolution is always determined by angular resolution at
             | viewing distance, even for analog TVs(they were smaller and
             | further away), and also,
             | 
             | Videos on Internet is always heavily compressed - the
             | "resolution" is just the output size passed to the decoder
             | and inverse of minimal pattern size recorded within,
             | technically not related to data size. Raw video is h * v *
             | bpp and have always been like low to dozen Gbps.
             | 
             | Just my bets, the bandiwth may peak or see a plateau, but
             | resolution could continue to grow as needed for e.g.
             | digital signage video walls that wraps around buildings.
        
           | bluedino wrote:
           | This is being downvoted but it's probably about right.
        
           | bhdlr wrote:
           | My smart TV used 483 GB in the last 30 days
        
         | jgalt212 wrote:
         | > And with 2.3M customers, that's an average 1.7 Mbit/s per
         | customer, or 550 GB per customer per month, which is kinda
         | high. The average American internet user probably consumes less
         | than 100 GB/month.
         | 
         | Dead internet theory (alive and well!)
        
         | StanislavPetrov wrote:
         | "Customer" may refer to households, not individuals, in which
         | case it could be numerous internet users soaking up data per
         | customer.
        
         | schiffern wrote:
         | >these laser links are used in bursts and the link stays
         | established only for a few tens of seconds or minutes, until
         | the satellites move away
         | 
         | The way Starlink satellites are in orbit, the same satellites
         | will remain "ahead" and "behind" you in the orbital plane.
         | Those laser links (specifically!) will remain relatively
         | persistent. This arrangement is similar to Iridium FYI.
         | 
         | FTA: "in some cases, the links can also be maintained for weeks
         | at a time"
        
           | mrb wrote:
           | _FTA: "in some cases, the links can also be maintained for
           | weeks at a time"_
           | 
           | I think there is a lot of variance. The article also states
           | about 266,141 "laser acquisitions" per day, which, if every
           | laser link stayed up for the exact same amount of time, with
           | 9000 lasers, means the average link remains established for a
           | little less than an hour: 9000 (lasers) / 266141 (daily
           | acquisitions) * 24 * 60 = 49 minutes
           | 
           | So some links may stay established for weeks, but some only
           | for a few minutes?
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | I would guess that the links between satellites on the same
             | orbit stay for weeks, but the ones that cross between
             | orbits have to constantly re-established.
        
               | schiffern wrote:
               | Correct.
               | 
               | I believe Starlink (like Iridium) doesn't even try to
               | establish connections "across the seam," ie the one place
               | the satellites in the adjacent plane are coming _head on_
               | at orbital speed.
               | 
               | This make side-linking easier because the relative
               | velocity is comparatively low, but in general you
               | unavoidably still need to switch side-link satellites (on
               | one side) twice per orbit. Hence 49 minutes: this average
               | must be calculated _per connection_ not per second, so
               | the front /back links (plus random noise) count less, so
               | it only drags the average from 45 minutes up to 49
               | minutes.
        
               | try_the_bass wrote:
               | _I believe Starlink (like Iridium) doesn 't even try to
               | establish connections "across the seam," ie the one place
               | the satellites in the adjacent plane are coming head on
               | at orbital speed._
               | 
               | The slide showing the multiple possible paths traffic can
               | take seems to disagree with this statement?
        
         | gleenn wrote:
         | Just because they seem grossly underused, there are probably
         | plenty of other non-ideal constraints like power usage for
         | instance.
        
           | dredmorbius wrote:
           | Thermal management is also a tremendous problem in space. All
           | power generated must be radiated away, and satellites
           | effectively sit inside a vacuum insulator.
           | 
           | I'd be interested in what the sustained power/thermal budget
           | of the satellites is.
        
         | robomartin wrote:
         | > That means each laser is grossly underused on average, at
         | 0.432% of its maximum capacity.
         | 
         | Don't forget that every communication protocol has fixed and
         | variable overhead.
         | 
         | The first is a function of the packet structure. It can be
         | calculated by simply dividing the payload capacity of a packet
         | by the total number of bits transmitted for that same packet.
         | 
         | Variable overhead is more complex. It has to do with
         | transactions, negotiations, retries, etc.
         | 
         | For example, while the theoretical overhead of TCP/IP is in the
         | order of 5%, actual overhead could be as high as 20% under
         | certain circumstances. In other words, 20% of the bits
         | transmitted are not data payload but rather the cost of doing
         | business.
        
         | feedsmgmt wrote:
         | Where did you get that 100GB/mo number from? 4K streaming eats
         | up data transfer quickly. Comcrap & friends knew what they were
         | doing making arbitrary data caps that sounded like a big number
         | at the time. Wireline data caps should be illegal.
        
         | bottlepalm wrote:
         | Most customers aren't served by lasers, their data goes up to
         | the satellite and down to the nearest gateway. Lasers serve
         | customers out of range of a downlink gateway, and the traffic
         | probably travels the minimum hops needed to get to one.
        
           | whazor wrote:
           | But with lasers, it makes sense to route your packets via
           | space. For example traffic to a different continent would be
           | faster (and cheaper) through space. Furthermore, I assume
           | lasers have more capacity than gateways, so they could
           | increase capacity of one satellite by bundling with more
           | gateways.
        
             | beejiu wrote:
             | I thought that Starlink always "landed" to a base station
             | back in the same jurisdiction? I think relaying through
             | space could open a regulatory can of worms.
        
               | psd1 wrote:
               | What kind of worms?
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | Bypassing spying, geofencing and other regulatory stuff,
               | perhaps? Also curious what the can of worms might be.
        
               | beejiu wrote:
               | All countries have strict regulations on radio waves,
               | whether that's sending or receiving. The UK for example
               | requires a license for base stations that stipulates
               | things like geographical boundaries, etc.
               | 
               | You can't freely blast radio waves into a country without
               | falling subject to its varying regulations, but the
               | regulations for "pre Starlink" satellite
               | broadband/phones/etc are fairly well established.
        
               | lucioperca wrote:
               | Well maybe it makes sense for US costumer to send their
               | traffic down from Starlink in Canada and then via fiber
               | to the USA? I do not really see the problem if the
               | traffic is encrypted and forwarded.
        
               | solardev wrote:
               | Does this count for radio waves beamed in from space
               | (like GPS)?
        
             | quailfarmer wrote:
             | Unfortunately, the routing to make this feasible doesn't
             | exist yet. Users need a single IP address from a range
             | that's homed at a single PoP. Starlink doesn't support
             | user-user connections through the mesh, you need to go all
             | the way out to your PoP, then over to the other users PoP,
             | then back through Starlink to that user.
        
               | solardev wrote:
               | Are you talking about peer-to-peer connections between
               | two Starlink users, like if they were both in the same
               | satellite's range but separated by a really tall mountain
               | between, etc.?
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | There's probably redundancy in the links. In other words, A
         | sends a MB to B which sends it to C, that's 1 MB of information
         | transmitted to customers but 2 MB of laser transmission.
        
         | cranberryturkey wrote:
         | if you stream you use a lot more than 100gb/month. I use around
         | 1tb with a family of 3.
        
         | Hadriel wrote:
         | i think even more relatable is how many customers they can
         | handle at say 200 mbps
        
         | p1mrx wrote:
         | The first slide says "9000+", suggesting that the number of
         | space lasers is slightly _over_ 9000. I feel like that 's an
         | important distinction.
        
           | Tade0 wrote:
           | Most likely it's a reference to the "it's over 9000!" meme.
        
         | deepGem wrote:
         | There is one key issue of keeping lasers aligned for long
         | durations between satellites and even between a satellite to a
         | ground station. There are vibrations in satellites and even a
         | tiny bit of that vibration translates to beam misalignment. Am
         | not an expert though. That could explain the bursts.
         | 
         | So it's hard to sustain the theoretical 100GPS connection for
         | hours let alone days across 2 end points which are in constant
         | motion.
        
         | hnaccount_rng wrote:
         | I'd have guessed they count "delivered bytes" not "transmitted
         | bytes" and then you need to take into account each leg of the
         | transfer. Which for starlink is at least two (for the simple
         | bend pipe situation) and up to potentially something like ?20?
         | (for a "halfway around the globe, totally starlink"
         | connection). The latter is probably statistically negligible,
         | but even the factor two would give ~2% utility. Which, taking
         | into account, that at least 2/3 of the orbit time is spend out
         | of reach of anywhere useful, this would give something like 1
         | in 10 possible bytes being transmitted. Which is much better
         | than I'd have guessed if asked blindly
        
         | try_the_bass wrote:
         | _That means each laser is grossly underused on average, at
         | 0.432% of its maximum capacity. Which makes sense since 100
         | Gbit /s is probably achievable in ideal situations (eg. 2
         | satellites very close to each other), so these laser links are
         | used in bursts and the link stays established only for a few
         | tens of seconds or minutes, until the satellites move away and
         | no longer are within line of sight of each other._
         | 
         | I think I agree that each laser is grossly underused on
         | average, but if you read the article, there's quotes about the
         | uptime of these links. They're definitely not just "used in
         | bursts [of] a few tens of seconds or minutes".
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | My parents moved in and, being old, stream TV all day (instead
         | of cable) and end up using about 40 GB per day with 1080p. We
         | keep hitting our max of 1.2 TB set by our cable company
         | (because there are others in the home!).
         | 
         | I should probably see if my router can bandwidth limit their
         | mac addresses...
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | In the long run that could become a massive strategic advantage
       | for the US. A 2nd layer of resilience over undersea cables
        
         | bagful wrote:
         | A privately-held strategic advantage?
        
           | supriyo-biswas wrote:
           | Offloading the risk on private players, reduces the amount of
           | government investment required, and shields them from any
           | criticism, should the project fail.
           | 
           | Also, if it is that strategically important, the government
           | can just buy SpaceX.
        
             | roywiggins wrote:
             | They probably wouldn't have to buy them, if there's a war
             | on they probably have enough legal tools to just require
             | SpaceX to sell them whatever capabilities they have.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_195
             | 0
        
           | roywiggins wrote:
           | It doesn't really matter who owns it as long as it can be
           | bent towards national goals when it matters.
           | 
           | American vehicle manufacturing was a strategic advantage
           | during WWII because they swiftly pivoted to selling tanks to
           | the government instead of cars to civilians.
        
             | forgot-im-old wrote:
             | It's already been bent towards missile defense
             | https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Military_capabilities
        
           | dotnet00 wrote:
           | Plenty of US strategic advantages are privately held or
           | otherwise very dependent on the private sector. It's fine
           | because the company can't really leave the US.
        
           | Havoc wrote:
           | At that level of strategic usefulness ownership stops
           | mattering if shit hits the fan. It'll simply get
           | commandeered.
        
           | lannisterstark wrote:
           | Like all other US defense companies, why not? Do you think US
           | Navy produces their own ships?
        
             | dredmorbius wrote:
             | The distinction here is that ships are _built_ by
             | nongovernmental private enterprises, whilst Starlink is
             | _operated_ by a nongovernmental private enterprise. With a
             | somewhat volatile executive.
             | 
             | Which isn't unprecedented. But it's also far from the
             | equivalence your comment suggests.
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | The US military already uses commercial satellite
               | communication systems.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | and commercial sensor system like 'Planet'.
               | 
               | and commercial cargo transport.
               | 
               | And lots of other stuff.
        
             | bell-cot wrote:
             | Note that, _historically_ , the US Navy had plenty of its
             | own shipyards, and _did_ produce many of its own ships.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:United_States_Navy_s
             | h...
             | 
             | But that's mostly been "optimized away" in more-recent
             | times, in the name of Capitalism and Campaign Donations.
        
         | le-mark wrote:
         | Real time video and telemetry for military drones that's nearly
         | immune to electronic warfare counter measures is the real end
         | game. The fpv drone carnage in Ukraine is currently limited to
         | the contact lines plus or minus a few kilometers. Satellite
         | comms change that drastically. Yes it's available now but
         | highly restricted.
        
           | techopoly wrote:
           | But not immune to missiles. Russia's already threatened to
           | target Starlink satellites. Maybe they're bluffing, or not,
           | but it does offer a reminder that these are just floating
           | computers in the sky.
        
             | mindwok wrote:
             | How feasible is it though once the network reaches a huge
             | size? Starlink satellites are tiny, and they've been
             | deploying thousands of them over the last few years. I
             | imagine it would take enormous resources to shoot them
             | down, especially if the US does treat them like a strategic
             | resource and adds more for redundancy.
        
               | supertrope wrote:
               | Even if anti-satellite missiles are too expensive to be
               | used to shoot down thousands of targets, the ground
               | stations could be bombed instead. Hacking the control
               | plane and sending de-orbit commands could be even
               | cheaper.
        
               | jessriedel wrote:
               | The new generation of Starlink satellites have laser
               | connections between them (which is what the article is
               | discussing). They can send data to the other side of the
               | globe to a friendly country for the ground link. (That's
               | a less efficient use of the inter-satellite bandwidth, of
               | course, but worth doing for war.)
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | Starlink satellites use inter-satellite lasers and can
               | send those signals arbitrary distances via multiple
               | satellites. Taking out a ground station will just require
               | routing changes and the constellation will continue to
               | perform.
               | 
               | And you can't just wave around "hacking the control
               | plane". Russia's been trying to interfere with Starlink
               | for a while and they haven't had any long term success.
               | And finally, even if the did somehow get access to the
               | control systems at SpaceX, the satellites can't de-orbit
               | quickly. It takes weeks to de-orbit, over which time they
               | could be commanded to reverse course.
        
               | lucubratory wrote:
               | The huge size of the network is itself a risk. Kessler
               | syndrome is something everyone is currently trying to
               | avoid, but if you wanted to intentionally induce it you
               | could just start launching giant payloads of tiny ball
               | bearings into their orbits, or take down enough of them
               | that the shrapnel becomes equivalent to that anyway.
               | Starlink is low enough that the debris from even a full
               | Kessler syndrome cascade will deorbit very rapidly, but
               | we're still talking a 3-5 year timeframe, not months, and
               | trying to rebuild capacity in that period will just
               | worsen + extend the problem.
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | This is something commonly misunderstood. Kessler
               | syndrome is a statistical process that happens over many
               | years. It is not a sudden cascade like is seen in movies
               | like Gravity. Statistical processes are not what
               | militaries are interested in.
               | 
               | It's actually thought that Kessler syndrome is kind of
               | already happening right now, which is why there's a lot
               | of push right now to try to de-orbit the very large
               | pieces of debris, so they can't act to form further
               | debris.
        
               | lucubratory wrote:
               | It happens as fast as it happens. Any actual projection
               | would depend on the specific orbits, masses, volumes,
               | materials, and numbers of satellites - Starlink's orbits
               | have a lot of satellites now. There's a very big
               | difference between "everyone trying to avoid it" and "one
               | of the world's largest space programs trying to cause it"
               | in terms of how much we should be worried about it
               | happening for any given orbit in the near term.
               | 
               | The reason it's a scary outcome is because it's an
               | exponential. It can look like an isolated incident or
               | incidents, then the next day be not practically
               | stoppable.
        
               | robbiep wrote:
               | Why can't every satellite have a small rocket/firework
               | like thing on the back pointing out to the expanse and if
               | the power goes out or it doesn't receive a signal from
               | the dead man's switch for long enough then it ignites?
               | Even with a big mass you don't need to give it much of a
               | shove downwards in a zero friction environment to speed
               | the de-orbit period up.
               | 
               | I'm sure I'm missing something but it just seems like a
               | no brainer to make the deorbit process speed up with
               | something relatively failsafe, as opposed to
               | hopefully/maybe saving a bit of fuel to push it that way
               | eventually
        
               | FeepingCreature wrote:
               | Satellite failures often involve uncontrolled spinning.
               | So you've turned a piece of debris in a known stable path
               | that will eventually deorbit into a piece of debris on an
               | unknown but potentially energetic orbit.
               | 
               | Satellites do have deorbit thrusters, but they're a lot
               | more deliberate. I think Starlink have a whole separate
               | remote controllable system just for deorbit control.
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | Pretty feasible for anyone who has enough ballistic
               | missiles to target about 5000 targets, or is willing to
               | invest a couple billion into stocking 5000 overpowered
               | fighter-launched missiles. Starlink isn't that high up,
               | and in military terms 5000 targets isn't _that_ much.
               | 
               | The effort of getting a ballistic trajectory that peaks
               | at 500km is a lot smaller than reaching a stable orbit of
               | that height. And just like WWII aircraft you don't need
               | to hit them, just produce enough shrapnel in their vague
               | vicinity.
               | 
               | The biggest hurdle is the universal international
               | condemnation you would receive for such an act
        
             | petesergeant wrote:
             | There's no way Russia can afford to make a significant dent
             | in the number of Starlink satellites, even assuming their
             | ASAT missiles aren't mostly filled with water rather than
             | rocket fuel as a result of corruption.
        
             | mlindner wrote:
             | Yes effectively immune to missiles. SpaceX launches a new
             | batch of 22 satellites on average every 4-5 days right now
             | and if needed can launch a new batch every 3 days. You'd
             | have to shoot down thousands of satellites to create enough
             | of a service gap, and keep shooting down the new ones. And
             | the problem is only getting harder with time. Unless you're
             | building up an armada of thousands of anti-satellite
             | missiles that you need to maintain at the ready to do this
             | task, you're not really taking the system down.
             | 
             | I should add that anti-satellite missiles are _large_
             | missiles. The missiles of this size in the US arsenal are
             | SM-3 missiles (or larger). The number even the US has is
             | only in the high hundreds to possibly low thousands. That's
             | completely out of the ability of Russia. It's maybe
             | possible for China but not in their current stockpiles.
        
             | mynameisnoone wrote:
             | Missiles are expensive compared to tiny, cheap satellites.
             | 
             | Laser beams are also the replacement for ASAT.
        
         | usrbinbash wrote:
         | A strategic advantage depending on the whims of a single
         | provate company.
         | 
         | Sounds great, what could possibly go wrong?
        
         | itomato wrote:
         | Assuming imminent domain and pursuant seizure.
        
       | throwaway2037 wrote:
       | Somewhat tangential: I assume that Starlink is not yet
       | profitable. How many customers do they need to become profitable?
        
         | BluSyn wrote:
         | I recall reading they were profitable on a quarterly basis at
         | end of 2023.
        
       | mmaunder wrote:
       | The amount of bleeding edge innovation that is rapidly developed
       | and deployed into production in Musks companies is incredible.
        
         | itsoktocry wrote:
         | > _The amount of bleeding edge innovation that is rapidly
         | developed and deployed into production in Musks companies is
         | incredible._
         | 
         | SpaceX for sure.
         | 
         | Hard to argue that Tesla is "bleeding edge" anymore; they
         | maintain some advantages, but have fallen behind in other
         | domains.
        
           | misiti3780 wrote:
           | What are you talking about - weather you think it will work
           | or not, no other company is collecting training data and
           | attempting to solve FSD in the same order of magnitude as
           | Tesla. (last is saw, TSLA collects more video data in 1.5
           | years then Waymo does in 1 year)
           | 
           | FSD12 is end-to-end neural nets and the videos are pretty
           | impressive. Who else is doing that ?
        
       | hk1337 wrote:
       | Isn't the user experience with starlink pretty abysmal for the
       | average user? Both the service and the customer service?
        
         | inemesitaffia wrote:
         | It's pretty average ish.
         | 
         | You can try it out for 30 days and form your own opinion.
        
       | karim79 wrote:
       | Has anyone tried Starlink? I super curious as to whether it's a
       | decent drop in replacement for the ISP have been using at home,
       | and have had trouble with since day one. I won't mention any
       | names (but I will say that it sounds a bit like Smodabone). What
       | is the latency like? The variability of the up/down? Does it do
       | what it says on the tin? Is (non-professional) online gaming a
       | go?
        
         | freedomben wrote:
         | Been using it since it was first available. Latency is fine,
         | speeds are good and steady. Occasional outages of several hours
         | every few months or so, but improving as time goes on.
         | 
         | Only complaint is that their DHCP server is buggy so if you
         | don't use their blessed router, you can expect outages when you
         | get transitioned to a new base station and starlink expects
         | your IP to have changed, but it doesn't, or sometimes when your
         | IP lease expires. Took me months to figure out that was the
         | issue. I run almalinux on my router so I just have a script
         | that checks a heartbeat and if it gets interrupted it will
         | nmcli down the wan interface and back up, which usually gets a
         | new IP. Though sometimes it will give the special IP to my
         | router that is supposed to go to the blessed router.
         | 
         | Overall I do recommend, but have a backup ISP if always up is
         | important.
        
         | madaxe_again wrote:
         | My experience, a year of use - 300Mbps down pretty
         | consistently, 40Mbps up, 40-60ms latency, fine for gaming for
         | the most part, and the drop outs are unnoticeable short when
         | they do infrequently happen. Never had an outage more than 10
         | seconds.
         | 
         | They've also nearly halved the price since I signed up.
        
         | itsoktocry wrote:
         | > _Has anyone tried Starlink? I super curious as to whether it
         | 's a decent drop in replacement for the ISP have been using at
         | home_
         | 
         | I use it when I'm venturing around my rural area, which has
         | spotty (or zero) LTE and broadband. It's awesome for that,
         | literal game-changer.
         | 
         | But it does suffer from downtime, sometimes poor reception, bit
         | of lag, etc. It's the difference between 99% uptime and
         | 99.999999%; you'll notice if you're using it all day, every
         | day. It's also more expensive than my home broadband for lower
         | speeds. I don't think you could replace your ISP, unless your
         | ISP is pretty bad.
        
       | mise_en_place wrote:
       | 4 nines uptime is great, but I would think the SNR matters more
       | in a packet switched network like this. There are conditions that
       | may lead to a very low SNR.
        
       | mrbonner wrote:
       | Wait, I thought only Kuiper has laser.
        
       | hasoleju wrote:
       | I just noticed that they were launching their first satellites in
       | 2019. It's impressive that they are now able to casually talk
       | about the different routing options for the data streams to
       | remote areas just 5 years after that.
       | 
       | At first this sounded like an utopian dream but now it looks like
       | common infrastructure that has a place in everyones life.
       | 
       | This must have been the same feeling when the first landlines
       | were installed. The very first lines were a sensation and then
       | after only a few years it becomes normal quickly.
        
         | loceng wrote:
         | I think it's likely a bad idea at this point to bet against
         | Elon - he seems to make more good decisions than bad decisions,
         | and is able to attract and keep the talent that is enabling his
         | companies to snowball exponentially towards reaching the
         | abundance of the universe.
         | 
         | My deepest hope currently is that the riches of the universe
         | now on the horizon of being relatively easily accessible, in a
         | systematic and efficient way, will lead to the military
         | industrial complex profit seeking to redirect their efforts to
         | mining the riches of the our solar system and beyond, rather
         | than likely mostly inadvertently driving for hell on Earth.
        
           | robbiep wrote:
           | Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future
           | performance.
           | 
           | You can't deny (I don't think) that the things he's done are
           | amazing. He's in the zone where he's smelt too many of his
           | farts though, and believes he can do no wrong, which is
           | historically a very bad place to be. I hope, for all of the
           | awesome things he's said he'd like to do, that they don't
           | come agutsa due to that
        
             | aetimmes wrote:
             | > the things he's done are amazing
             | 
             | The things he's _purchased_ are amazing.
        
               | merman wrote:
               | This is obviously untrue. what you're really saying is "I
               | don't agree with Elons views so it would be uncomfortable
               | for me to think that he has some admirable qualities, so
               | I don't allow myself to think about it"
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | The things he purchased were fine. They became
               | revolutionary under him.
               | 
               | The man has a lot of flaws and since covid drifted into
               | ideologies I don't agree with. I also wouldn't buy a
               | Tesla. But there is no denying that both Tesla and SpaceX
               | revolutionized their respective industries. And it seems
               | safe to say that neither would have managed to do this
               | without Musk. And at least SpaceX manages to sustain a
               | substantial lead over the competition and continues
               | revolutionizing industries.
        
               | joenot443 wrote:
               | It's amazing the mental gymnastics otherwise intelligent
               | people reach for just to allow themselves to feel
               | superior over someone whose politics they disagree with.
        
               | Manabu-eo wrote:
               | SpaceX, the topic of this thread, was wholly started by
               | him, with him being very hands own since the beginning
               | till at least the first F9. Just watch any fab tour with
               | him, be the old ones from 2005 or the new ones at Texas.
               | 
               | He is also a founder at Tesla, as when he entered the
               | round A financing Tesla was just three guys, some
               | networking, and nothing more. Even the "Tesla" trademark
               | and logo registration was made by SpaceX people. He
               | didn't found his own car company with just J. B. Straubel
               | (another Tesla founder who was being paid by him to
               | develop electric car batteries at the time) because he
               | thought it would be better to cooperate with that other
               | group that was was inspired by the same idea and he
               | though he would be able to concentrate more on SpaceX
               | that way. He was wrong and had to take the CEO position
               | on Tesla later to avoid bankrupcy, move the Model S
               | design headquarters to SpaceX, etc. And it's now nothing
               | like what it was when he first put money on it.
        
             | mensetmanusman wrote:
             | Past performance is the only data available to help predict
             | the future.
        
               | prossercj wrote:
               | Don't forget about prophecy
        
               | loceng wrote:
               | Prophecy generally falls in line with "any sufficiently
               | advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
               | 
               | If you have enough real-world data, and learned the
               | patterns of history, along with fundamental principles
               | that seem to be precursors or prerequisites to change,
               | then a prophet is more or less someone with a honed and
               | an extended-expanded open mind neural network compared to
               | most.
               | 
               | P.S. It's why it's a really good idea to allow immigrants
               | fleeing from communist countries, as they'll be best and
               | perhaps first to detect and sound the alarm bells if
               | fascism patterns begin to emerge in their new country.
        
             | joenot443 wrote:
             | > Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future
             | performance.
             | 
             | This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong
             | heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm
             | earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other
             | areas of your life?
             | 
             | If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past
             | performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that
             | decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and
             | fundamental part of decision making, I'm fascinated you've
             | gotten along thus far without it.
        
               | robbiep wrote:
               | I treat my life as a series of independent variables...
               | much like HN comments where sometimes sticking the snappy
               | retort in regarding a brilliant but flawed individual
               | might jolt someone out of their hero worship, but point
               | taken
        
               | merman wrote:
               | "past performance is a poor indicator of future
               | performance" is quite a weak statement. It's the one of
               | the best predictors there is. There are very few
               | exceptions. When you were called out you doubled down
               | with complete nonsense. If everything were a series of
               | independent variables, then every day after work, how do
               | you decide whether to return home to your loving spouse
               | (of many years) and children, why not go to a bar and
               | find some strange? Why bother calling up your longtime
               | friends to hang out, why not go to a bar and talk to the
               | person next to you - a lifetime of (past) friendship is
               | no indication of future kinship! Why bother writing a
               | response to a forum post, when one moment from now,
               | everything will be independent of everything else, and
               | you have no expectations of feeling the same way?
               | Finally, you excuse any flaws in your travesty of ideas
               | by claiming that sniping at "Elon worshipers" is such a
               | just cause that it excuses any sort of flawed thinking.
               | This is a fine demonstration of echo chamber thinking.
        
             | Shocka1 wrote:
             | > Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future
             | performance.
             | 
             | Really?
             | 
             | It's my understanding Elon isn't popular anymore (I could
             | care less), but this point does not help whatever it is
             | you're trying to say. I deal a lot with statistics and
             | making predictions from past performance, and you most
             | definitely can determine future performance with a high
             | amount of accuracy. This shouldn't really need said.
             | 
             | You are probably right about him smelling too many of his
             | farts, but you really hurt your main thesis right off the
             | bat with that first claim.
        
       | eterevsky wrote:
       | That's around 3.9 Tb/s, in case you are wondering.
        
       | hypertele-Xii wrote:
       | Is it possible one of these laser satellites miss and hit you in
       | the eye? Would that blind a man?
        
         | hasoleju wrote:
         | No. The focus of a laser beam is not constant over these large
         | distances. It is the same effect you get if you use a laser
         | pointer over large distances. The spot becomes large quickly.
        
       | Denote6737 wrote:
       | 3.65 days of downtime isn't going to be winning any prizes.
        
         | vardump wrote:
         | If near a ground station, can't the satellites just use their
         | standard radio links to cover that?
         | 
         | Might be an issue for Antarctica and major seas.
        
       | gotmedium wrote:
       | When will we see data centers in space?
        
         | ryankrage77 wrote:
         | I think the biggest hurdle would be heat dissipation. Solar
         | power is plentiful, but all that energy then has to be radiated
         | away somehow.
        
       | ijhuygft776 wrote:
       | This post currently has 420 points, I bet Musk would like that
       | (wont vote to keep it this way)
        
       | testemailfordg2 wrote:
       | My novice view....Laser connections are point to point, so they
       | can be between satellites....But to the end user equipment,having
       | those many point to point laser connections might be too
       | difficult or impractical to achieve...So that's where they use
       | radiowaves, which means any satellite over the horizon can talk
       | to a dish...
        
       | sheepybloke wrote:
       | Just for context, here's SDA's Open Standard on how they expect
       | to do connections over Optical Links. I assume the starlink
       | terminals work in a similar manner:
       | 
       | https://www.sda.mil/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/SDA_OCT_Stand...
        
       | sonicanatidae wrote:
       | But how much of that data is insane right-wing conspiracy
       | theories? lol
        
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