[HN Gopher] Ask HN: What is a 2024-2030 moat for AI
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Ask HN: What is a 2024-2030 moat for AI
What are the key moats and competitive advantage in the AI
industry(specifically if one is working in the Generative AI space)
for the next 6 years? Some simple examples, you are building on
powerful technologies: AI forecasting based on graphcast, or an
assistant based on GPT or computer vision based on Roboflow and
Scale API. Products like Perplexity is built on GPT and others and
Rabbit is built on Perplexity. Looking ahead to the years 2024 to
2030, it becomes increasingly crucial to identify the moats that
can help AI companies maintain a sustainable competitive advantage.
Some say this is users, data or compute. But what makes sense for
1-3 person team.
Author : jonas_kgomo
Score : 7 points
Date : 2024-01-30 21:42 UTC (1 hours ago)
| nextos wrote:
| It's hard to say. Good moats, at least mid-term, are rarely
| algorithms. It's usually data and infrastructure.
|
| However, for some applications I am interested in, I think that
| robust representation learning solutions could give a significant
| edge.
|
| But that is mostly an open problem in high-dimensional spaces.
| stuartaxelowen wrote:
| And not just data, but hard to match data generators. I'm
| skeptical of the defensibility of any given licensed dataset.
| baq wrote:
| Text written by real humans after 2023.
| Vitaly_C wrote:
| Or, are the machines training us to train them to train
| themselves?
| fwungy wrote:
| For a small team operating in the Generative AI space from 2024
| to 2030, key moats and competitive advantages lie in specialized
| models, unique training datasets, and efficient model fine-
| tuning. Developing highly specific algorithms tailored to
| particular domains, combined with a focus on transfer learning
| and fine-tuning techniques, enables superior performance in niche
| markets. Hybrid approaches, blending generative AI with other
| technologies, can offer innovative solutions with broader
| applications. Ethical AI practices, user-centric interface
| design, and community engagement contribute to building trust and
| user satisfaction, while agile development and rapid iteration
| allow small teams to adapt swiftly to market needs. Intellectual
| property protection, including patents and unique methods,
| establishes legal moats, and strategic partnerships and ecosystem
| integration broaden product reach. The ability to stay informed
| about industry trends and regulatory changes is crucial for
| making informed decisions and maintaining a competitive edge in
| the dynamic Generative AI landscape.
| uf00lme wrote:
| Has a 1-3 team moat ever really existed with new technologies? My
| best guess would be to somehow get your tech embedded into the
| defence industry.
|
| My goto moat test: is there an obvious 'death by Amazon' route?
| Amazon can strike fear into entire industries with scale and
| capital. Very few tech companies could withstand a full frontal
| assault by Amazon. I can't see how this trend won't get worse if
| AGI occurs during our lifetime.
|
| The only reason there is not more AI or robots doing the majority
| of the work available to humans, is either it's cheaper to hire
| humans or companies just haven't gotten around to it yet.
| tqi wrote:
| I think successful AI companies in 2030 will get there through a
| combination being above some minimum threshold of technical
| competence and execution and luck (right place, right time, right
| professional network). I think the former is probably lower than
| we'd expect, while the latter is much more important than we
| expect. I also think that in 2023, we will tell ourselves that
| those companies were inevitable because XYZ obvious reasons
| created a moat.
| bhag2066 wrote:
| The moats are 1) network effects, 2) switching costs, 3)
| economics of scale, 4) low cost producer, and 5) brand. So an AI
| technology where each new user makes it more valuable for the
| existing users, there are data lock-ins that prevent customer
| switching, training costs are spread across more users, there is
| access to lower cost chips/storage/compute and a brand that
| attracts more users.
|
| OpenAI already appears to hit a number of these categories.
| chris-orgmenta wrote:
| May I add: 6) Any anti-AIcorp legislation (that the current
| incumbents may encourage, which does not affect themselves) -
| legislative barriers to entry?
|
| I am not convinced they have truly managed this yet - It is a
| concern of mine though.
| throwbadubadu wrote:
| Love to look stupid.. as foreign speaker and after reading all
| comments and also all translations in the dictionary, I still
| have only a vague meaning of "moat" in this context. Could
| someone define precisely please?
|
| Things like "network effects" vs "1-3 team moat" vs "human
| written text" now totally confused me.. what will protect it?
| What will be the most precious? Who succeeds?
| stuxnet79 wrote:
| In this instance 'moat' simply means an advantage that will
| prevent direct competitors from undercutting your business.
| throwbadubadu wrote:
| Makes sense, thanks for superquick reply :) Then I'd say
| nothing even close to certain..
| fragmede wrote:
| in this context, a moat is something that only you can do, and
| no others can copy it. If I make a product with a feature that
| no one can copy, then no one can take it away from me and I'll
| always be able to make money off of that.
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