[HN Gopher] Tesla Q4 2023 Earnings Report [pdf]
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Tesla Q4 2023 Earnings Report [pdf]
Author : mfiguiere
Score : 48 points
Date : 2024-01-24 21:57 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (digitalassets.tesla.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (digitalassets.tesla.com)
| epolanski wrote:
| Unsurprisingly to anyone who understands how tough the auto
| industry is, Tesla's long term growth expectations were not
| realistic.
|
| On the other hand having the best selling vehicle on the planet
| is a gargantuan achievement Tesla should be proud of.
|
| Curious about its future beyond cars. Musk described Tesla like
| 15 startups under one company.
| mgiannopoulos wrote:
| Tesla Energy generated a record $6B in revenue in 2023, up 54%
| YoY. So, that's something to look at.
| alphabettsy wrote:
| It might be the strongest growth prospect going forward.
| Other EVs using their chargers and commercial customers using
| their power solutions.
| bdcravens wrote:
| Tesla's end game is infrastructure, not cars.
| mgiannopoulos wrote:
| Also, auto gross margins ex credits, came in at 17%. It marks
| the end of four consecutive quarters of margin decline, up from
| 16.3% in the Sep-23.
| nine_zeros wrote:
| Infinite growth is a fantasy. But Tesla certainly pushed a
| lethargic market to the future. An epic company at the whims of
| the quarterly analyst.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| They sold cars to stoke demand for batteries [1] and prove the
| world could move to EVs. They used battery manufacturing to
| scale up to build and sell utility scale storage [2]. Nimble
| companies should always be prepared to pivot and maximize
| opportunities based on core competencies if they are to survive
| (Kodak and Xerox are examples of not doing this). If their EV
| business becomes second to legacy auto, but the org keeps
| expanding power controls and storage, is that a loss? They
| already forced every other automaker to go electric. The global
| energy market is somewhat larger than the light vehicle market,
| and batteries will be required to phase out every last fossil
| generator (not for energy arbitrage primarily, but for grid
| stability). The product is riding the global energy transition.
|
| (early Tesla investor, no current exposure)
|
| [1]
| https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g...
|
| [2] https://www.tesla.com/megafactory
| dragontamer wrote:
| Except Panasonic owns the cell-manufacturing portion of the
| Nevada Gigafactory. And Panasonic can sell those cells to
| anyone.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| But they don't, because Tesla's demand is voracious and
| they are a proven partner. Relationships matter.
| epistasis wrote:
| Cars are a much higher margin way to sell storage than
| selling it without the attached car. Or at least that has
| been the justification in the past for Tesla prioritizing
| shipping cars over more grid storage.
|
| I don't think that's changed, as grid scale storage is a cut
| throat market. Maybe residential storage paired with solar
| will have higher margins, but the limit there is regulatory,
| and there's also ample competition in the solar market.
|
| Which is to say, cars really seem to be Tesla's best bet and
| core driver of other value, IMHO.
| jandrese wrote:
| Yeah, their valuation being based on the assumption of infinite
| exponential growth was always going to smack into the cold hard
| reality of the S curve at some point. But Tesla could lose a
| massive amount of valuation and still be overpriced, especially
| compared to other large car companies like GM, Ford,
| Stellantis, BMW, and BYD.
|
| The only thing saving Tesla from being absolutely clobbered in
| the market today, at least in the US, is the competitors doing
| some baffling and outright dumb things with their own EVs. Like
| Toyota announcing that they think EVs are a fad and aren't
| worth pursuing. Or GM ditching its only EV that actually sells
| for some vague promise of a car that is at least 2 years away.
|
| I also think the lower numbers for last year are due to dumping
| tons of money into a truck platform that seems unlikely to be a
| good seller. I'm expecting that once you factor in all of the
| R&D costs the Cybertruck will be a net negative for Tesla with
| poor sales and low (for Tesla) margins.
| b33j0r wrote:
| They oversold the Cybertruck for how long it took and what it
| ended up being/costing. The market for it was maybe
| irrationally exuberant a few years ago, but a lot of that
| evaporated just from consumer ADHD and years of examples of
| new tech ideas with more options.
|
| (Speaking of the ADHD customers, I guess I can get $100
| back?)
| coliveira wrote:
| Tesla is lucky in the US, but in several parts of the world
| BYD is beating them hard. BYD is selling the most units, and
| they are not even allowed to compete in the USA.
| chollida1 wrote:
| Numbers:
|
| - Q4 Gross Margins 17.6%, EST. 18.1%, down 6.12% YoY
|
| - Q4 automotive margins 17.2% ahead of 16.3% Q3, bullish
|
| - Q4 Adjusted EPS $0.71, EST. $0.73c, down 40% YoY
|
| - Q4 FCF $2.06B, EST. $1.45B, up 45% YoY
|
| - Q4 Rev. $25.2B, EST. $25.9B, up 3% YoY
|
| - Solar deployed 41 Megawatts, not very exciting, really lagging
| competitors here.
|
| - revenue from credits sold to other companies was $433M down
| from $550 Q3
|
| - this should eventually go to zero over the next 10 years
|
| - 1.2M Model Y's sold,
|
| Notes:
|
| - EV sales in general rose by about 50% last year in the US
|
| - TSLA now under 50% of EV market in the US, still absurdly good,
| but falling
|
| - TSLA note growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than 2023, but
| refused to offer guidance
|
| - energy storage doubled 2022, that's pretty awesome
|
| - when will they stop manufacturing the S and X, they are pretty
| minimal compared to the Y & 3 now
|
| Look for:
|
| - next gen(cheap cross over) "leaked" this morning, is that due
| to bad numbers? - expected to deliver
| 100,000/week of these after ramp up - will this be
| built outside of hte US to save money?
|
| - dojo computer talk ($1B is alot to put into this space)
|
| - will they break out cyber truck, or hide those numbers, note,
| they dodged it and said it would take a long time to ramp up
|
| - V12 FSD notes. What data will they release and will the shift
| to NN to manage handling instead of hard coded rules work out?
|
| - what are they making from super charging?
|
| Thoughts:
|
| - broke down below $200, options call writers win,
|
| - Solar disappointing again, when will they spin that out and
| focus?
| jandrese wrote:
| > - will this be built outside of the US to save money?
|
| I hope not since that would disqualify it for the tax credit.
| mrkstu wrote:
| I believe Mexico would still qualify to to the free trade
| agreement.
| newfocogi wrote:
| May be a typo but I'm seeing 10,000 next gen vehicles per week,
| which is an order of magnitude less than you stated. Otherwise,
| thanks for the great summary!
| makeitdouble wrote:
| Selling 50% more vehicles to end up with only 3% more revenue
| is pretty big.
|
| I'd assume we see a other big changes in the coming year with
| either way stronger diversification or a huge dip in revenue
| when the discounts' effect disappears and car sales slow down ?
| cbeach wrote:
| I'm surprised to see 38% YoY increase in Tesla deliveries (page
| 8) in the last 12 months, despite the high interest rates (thus
| expensive consumer finance) and the high price point of Tesla's
| current range.
|
| By comparison, Honda sales increased 33%, GM 14.1%, Ford 7.1%,
| Toyota 6.6%, VW 6.7%, Stellantis down 1%
|
| https://www.cbtnews.com/car-manufacturers-report-impressive-...
|
| https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/around...
|
| When Tesla release its $25K car, and when interest rates drop, I
| suspect the march of Tesla on its rivals will continue apace.
| jliptzin wrote:
| You're subject to the same interest rates no matter what
| vehicle you purchase. Base model 3 is not any more expensive
| than a typical new ICE vehicle especially with the federal
| credit, plus you save on gas and maintenance.
| KerrAvon wrote:
| and you get to broadcast your Nazi-adjacent virtue.
| mvdtnz wrote:
| What is the matter with you?
| TMWNN wrote:
| Pure, undiluted Musk Derangement Syndrome in action
| bdcravens wrote:
| I don't think it's fair to assume every customer is
| adopting the values of that company's owner/leader. I say
| this despite being someone who canceled a Model 3 order and
| went with a different EV because of Elon's values.
| jandrese wrote:
| Base model 3 doesn't qualify for the tax credit. The only
| Model 3 you can buy with the credit is the much more
| expensive Performance edition.
| jliptzin wrote:
| Was that true in 2023? Don't know just what my friend told
| me when he bought his model 3 a few months ago. He decided
| to pull the trigger on it because it was the same price as
| a brand new camry
| lvl102 wrote:
| That gross margin is coming down as competition ramps up. They
| have two more years before Toyota rolls out new batteries. That
| doesn't even include Rivian's cheaper competition model which
| they will reveal in March. They have no FSD. They have no AI.
| They have no "robots". All vaporwares. Doesn't help public
| opinion of Elon Musk and Tesla changed dramatically in the past
| 24 months. Progressives rather drive ICE than a Tesla.
| B1FF_PSUVM wrote:
| > two more years before Toyota rolls out new batteries.
|
| "Or the horse may learn to sing."
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(page generated 2024-01-24 23:00 UTC)