[HN Gopher] Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before...
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       Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before it exploded
       over Berlin
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 72 points
       Date   : 2024-01-23 14:05 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.livescience.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.livescience.com)
        
       | PorterBHall wrote:
       | Headline: "...exploded over Berlin" Body: "...producing a bright
       | but harmless fireball visible for miles around."
        
         | blueflow wrote:
         | Someone is getting paid for clicks.
        
         | Xylakant wrote:
         | It also wasn't over Berlin, but like 60 kilometers away.
        
           | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
           | And I live 2 hours' drive outside of DC but if I'm talking to
           | someone not from the region I just say "DC area" if asked
           | where I live.
           | 
           | It's pretty common to reference a nearby place name that is
           | well known/recognized versus a place name that might be more
           | accurate but leaves most receivers/readers/etc thinking
           | "...where?"
        
             | yencabulator wrote:
             | The article did not say "Berlin area", so your "DC area" is
             | not the same.
             | 
             | If something happens over your house, is it "over
             | Washington"?
        
         | peddling-brink wrote:
         | I really don't see that as misleading. Do you? Evocative
         | imagery for sure, but that's surely less boring than "the
         | specimen exhibited an incandescence of magnitude..."
        
           | rzzzt wrote:
           | It boils down to whether the main goal is to have fun or read
           | something factual. If "west of Berlin near Nennhausen" ===
           | "over Berlin", I don't know what to say.
        
             | AlbertoGP wrote:
             | Same as "Gigafactory Berlin".
        
               | rzzzt wrote:
               | There's an agglomeration area around Berlin(-Brandenburg)
               | which is similar to a sibling commenter's "DC area"
               | example (of course smaller). The Gigafactory is just
               | outside this imaginary dotted line; Nennhausen is way
               | over to the West.
        
               | AlbertoGP wrote:
               | I see, just checked it up on a map and you are right of
               | course, thanks for the correction.
        
       | tocs3 wrote:
       | "but this one was unique because it was first detected by
       | scientists roughly three hours before impact -- only the eighth
       | time that researchers have spotted one of these space rocks
       | before it hit."
       | 
       | Maybe I did not read close enough but how is it "first"?
        
         | kvdveer wrote:
         | "first detected", meaning this asteroid wasn't detected before.
         | They don't claim anything about earlier detection of other
         | asteroids.
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | They do claim that this asteroid is somehow unique.
           | 
           | The best I can guess is that 8 of these have been detected
           | before they hit, but only this one was detected 3 hours
           | before it did. The rest must have been detected with longer
           | or shorter times before impact (presumably longer).
           | 
           | Alternatively, perhaps it is unique because of its small
           | size, at only 1 meter.
        
         | teraflop wrote:
         | The word "first" in that sentence means the first detection of
         | _this_ asteroid, not that it was the first asteroid detected in
         | the same way.
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | then what imparts the "unique" characteristic?
        
             | olddustytrail wrote:
             | I think "unique" is being used in the figurative sense of
             | "very unusual".
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | Interesting, I have literally never head it used that
               | way. Doubly so in the same sentence as the comparable
               | events.
               | 
               | Im not trying to debate, just surprised that is even
               | considered an option.
        
         | feoren wrote:
         | The other responses actually have this a bit wrong: this was
         | unique among "bright fireball" asteroid impacts, because before
         | it impacted (second), it was (first) detected. "First" is
         | referring to the order of events: detection first, impact
         | second. Not referring to the first of its kind, or even the
         | first detection of this asteroid. It's saying these types of
         | impacts usually just appear in the sky without first being
         | detected by observatories. Although it's clearly not "unique"
         | if that's the 8th time this has happened. The article is just
         | kinda poor quality.
        
       | throwaway4aday wrote:
       | Really burying the important takeaway at the bottom:
       | 
       | Starting in 2025, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile --
       | funded by the National Science Foundation -- will catalog the
       | solar system from the ground...
       | 
       | "It took us 200 years to discover all the asteroids we know to
       | date, about 1.2 million asteroids," Mario Juric, the Rubin
       | Observatory's solar system discovery team lead and the director
       | of the University of Washington's DiRAC Institute, told
       | Astronomy. "In the first three to six months of Rubin, we will
       | double that."
       | 
       | That's one additional ground based observatory coming online in
       | the Southern hemisphere. If we get our act together and build a
       | lot more of these and other space based observatories we're going
       | to see the true scope of the "shooting gallery". We really need
       | to raise public awareness of this, as a planet based civilization
       | we are taking our chances by ignoring the problem and assuming
       | everything will be fine for a hundred or a thousand more years.
       | All of our efforts at averting a climate catastrophe will be for
       | naught if we get smoked by a rock big enough to fill the
       | atmosphere with particulate matter and drop global temperatures
       | for years afterward let alone anything bigger resulting in global
       | firestorms and tsunamis.
        
         | oceanplexian wrote:
         | Doesn't even need to be a planet killer, even a small object
         | like the Tunguska event hitting a large city (Like NYC) would
         | cost trillions in damage and millions of lives, the equivalent
         | of a nuclear bomb going off. The cost to build some
         | surveillance and technology to mitigate it would be far less.
         | 
         | And prevention wouldn't require Bruce Willis to blow it up with
         | nukes, like the DART mission all you'd need is to hit the space
         | rock with a fast moving, small probe and alter its course by a
         | millionth of a degree far enough out, could be the difference
         | between hitting a city, landing in the ocean, or not hitting
         | earth at all.
        
           | vorticalbox wrote:
           | I read somewhere about the idea of sending white paint to
           | coat one side this would cause one side to get hotter and
           | cause the asteroid to spin sending it off course.
           | 
           | I'm quite sure it wouldn't work but was an interesting idea.
        
             | readyplayernull wrote:
             | The problem is that they rotate. Maybe an electronically
             | controlled jet that triggers only when aligned in the right
             | direction.
        
               | truculent wrote:
               | Presumably it would be more efficient to use jet to
               | stabilise it, so that the painted deflector can take
               | effect
        
               | zamadatix wrote:
               | If you can detect it early enough an absolutely miniscule
               | amount of force can multiply over time to an enormous
               | difference in position later on. Much less force than
               | would be required to stop it from spinning or sending
               | material to act as a deflector.
        
           | lencastre wrote:
           | Challenge accepted!
        
           | MichaelZuo wrote:
           | A Tunguska event exploding over Moscow could even trigger the
           | 'Perimeter' system without human intervention. And likely
           | most of the missiles are pre-programmed with US targets...
        
           | echoangle wrote:
           | The probability of that is really low though, theres not a
           | lot of area with dense population when looking at the whole
           | earth. And for your redirection to work, you would need
           | really precise trajectory predictions while still very far
           | away so a small impulse is enough.
        
         | hyperthesis wrote:
         | Wouldn't the most dangerous trajectories be the hardest to
         | observe?
         | 
         | Of those 1.2 million orbits, how many are dangerous?
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | Don't forget, occasionally the trajectories get perturbed.
           | 
           | If it helps you sleep at night, over the billions of years
           | earth has been in its current orbit, it's already 'eaten' all
           | the high risk asteroids.
           | 
           | What we're dealing with now are very much the long-long-long
           | tail hazards.
           | 
           | Which do exist.
           | 
           | But the earths crust was molten in it's early life due in
           | some large part due to persistent and high volume infalling
           | asteroids, and that time is long gone.
        
         | Ma8ee wrote:
         | > All of our efforts at averting a climate catastrophe...
         | 
         | Uh, which efforts?
        
       | gnicholas wrote:
       | I was interested to learn about the mentioned 2013 meteor that
       | resulted in injuries. Not sure how I didn't hear about that when
       | it happened. My takeaway is that if you see something that looks
       | like it's a bright fireball, close your eyes and turn away. And
       | apparently move away from windows. Funny to see that the "duck
       | and cover" exercises they do in schools are actually useful for
       | (extremely rare) events like this. [1]
       | 
       | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor
        
         | zoklet-enjoyer wrote:
         | I'm surprised you didn't hear about it either. That was widely
         | covered and talked about IRL at the time. Craziest thing I ever
         | seen. All the dash cam videos just mesmerized me. I still think
         | about it often.
        
           | eichin wrote:
           | Yeah, it made a lot of mainstream media. (It was also pretty
           | much the _only_ thing on space-youtube and russian-dashcam-
           | youtube for weeks :-) Sort of  "The Dark Knight"-esque use of
           | a massive array of distributed cameras as an observatory...
        
         | opello wrote:
         | > Funny to see that the "duck and cover" exercises they do in
         | schools are actually useful for (extremely rare) events like
         | this.
         | 
         | I thought we knew that despite modern criticism that duck and
         | cover was effective for those outside of some range given a
         | nuclear explosion?
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_and_cover#Efficacy_during...
         | 
         | I also think that those exercises haven't been done in schools
         | for quite some time. I never did them despite plenty of fire
         | and severe weather drills.
        
       | gmuslera wrote:
       | This one had 1m of diameter, so didn't manage to reach the
       | ground. And by very far most of the ones that get close to Earth
       | have less than 30m of diameter.
       | 
       | But the problem of late discovery are the ones that are (far?)
       | bigger than this ones, the ones that manage to reach the ground
       | in sizes much bigger than a pebble. Are we detecting all the
       | dangerous ones (and little less dangerous but big enough), and
       | with enough anticipation? Had been in recent times surprises of
       | big enough asteroids passing close enough?
       | 
       | I suppose that in the end, we are playing with odds. It didn't
       | happened for long enough, most that get close is harmless, and I
       | suppose that if there are some harder to be detected (i.e.
       | darker/low reflective ones?) they should not be the majority. But
       | from time to time we have events that reminds us the bet we are
       | playing.
        
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