[HN Gopher] NASA loses contact with Ingenuity Mars helicopter
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       NASA loses contact with Ingenuity Mars helicopter
        
       Author : basementcat
       Score  : 113 points
       Date   : 2024-01-20 18:35 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.space.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.space.com)
        
       | throwup238 wrote:
       | Run! Go! Get to the choppa, Perseverance!
       | 
       | I've been saving that one for _years_.
        
       | chiph wrote:
       | They should definitely drive the rover to see what happened.
       | 
       | Question: Can Ingenuity autorotate to a landing in the Martian
       | atmosphere?
        
         | beej71 wrote:
         | I'd bet no, given how thin the atmosphere is and how fast they
         | have to spin the rotors to stay aloft.
        
         | dredmorbius wrote:
         | From TFA:
         | 
         |  _" Perseverance is currently out of line-of-sight with
         | Ingenuity, but the team could consider driving closer for a
         | visual inspection," NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in
         | Southern California, which manages both robots' missions, said
         | via X on Friday._
         | 
         |  _Close_ inspection may not be advisable due to difficult
         | terrain:
         | 
         | <https://mastodon.social/@65dBnoise/111789132803382896>
        
           | zokier wrote:
           | There seems to be some spots almost directly south
           | (-southeast) from the landing site (300-400m away maybe?)
           | that look like they would be reachable without descending
           | down to the riverbed and ripples. And I think that's the
           | general direction Percy is going towards anyways (mostly
           | west), so it wouldn't even be a huge detour to go check it
           | out. I'd guess it would be mostly matter of how good of a
           | path would be available there, but eyeballing it seems
           | relatively benign.
        
       | tedivm wrote:
       | This is pretty sad but also pretty amazing. The original plan was
       | for five flights of around 90 seconds each, and it looks like it
       | finally failed on flight 72 with a total from all flights of two
       | hours, eight minutes and eighteen seconds of flight time. All of
       | this in an extremely thin atmosphere.
        
         | roughly wrote:
         | NASA's got a history of their rovers overperforming like this.
         | Between this and Webb, it's hard to argue they're not the best
         | out there.
        
           | jasonpeacock wrote:
           | It's less about being the best (no criticism of NASA) but
           | rather engineering decisions to _guarantee_ the planned
           | mission, which means you over-engineer and thus get extra
           | performance/reliability. You're not willing to accept the
           | statistical risk that may end a mission early.
        
             | roughly wrote:
             | I agree that it's not strictly that NASA engineers are
             | better engineers, but I do think there's part of this
             | that's both cultural and becomes actual capability - I
             | think even if you gave most engineering organizations the
             | budget and mandate that NASA has, they still wouldn't be
             | able to pull off something like Webb because they don't
             | have the practice of it*. Capacity both builds and
             | atrophies over time, and most places don't work to that
             | standard often enough to maintain the capability to do so
             | even if they wanted to.
             | 
             | (*I don't necessarily mean the practice of shooting a
             | rocket into space and launching a telescope, but the
             | ability to build an object that can perform that exactly to
             | its specifications under those kinds of circumstances.)
        
               | falserum wrote:
               | Mostly, with any endeavour, you never start in advanced
               | state, you have basic solution, then refine and grow it.
               | I guess formula would be: tech skills x organisational
               | quality x budget x iterations already under the belt. Any
               | of these factors can bring down the total result to zero.
               | Not an easy task trying to control all of these.
               | 
               | Nasa, congrats on successful mission, which now ended.
        
               | rrdharan wrote:
               | > with any [E]ndeavour
               | 
               | I see what you did there.
        
               | nordsieck wrote:
               | > I think even if you gave most engineering organizations
               | the budget and mandate that NASA has, they still wouldn't
               | be able to pull off something like Webb because they
               | don't have the practice of it
               | 
               | IMO, Webb is a bad example. It was super over budget,
               | late, and experienced a litany of problems.
               | 
               | In contrast, most un-manned NASA projects are roughly on
               | budget and generally have few issues. And even the ones
               | that do, NASA often figures out how to correct them like
               | the Hubble telescope.
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | > In contrast, most un-manned NASA projects are roughly
               | on budget and generally have few issues.
               | 
               | This is simply not true. Maybe for some of the smallest
               | Discovery or New Frontiers missions, but then those
               | aren't actually built by NASA/JPL.
               | 
               | Mars Sample Return is also famously insanely late and
               | over budget, and so have been most flagship missions.
        
             | superjan wrote:
             | I speculate that beyond that, extra longevity can also be
             | used to increase your budget. If you plan for six months
             | operations, you have a lower mission budget. They won't
             | shut you down after six months as long the device is still
             | working.
        
           | alentred wrote:
           | I am in absolute awe of the results of research and
           | engineering at NASA and many other space agencies for that
           | matter. Nevertheless, I wonder: how much of the
           | overperformance is in fact about playing it down in the first
           | place?
           | 
           | For example, what requirements for the Ingenuity helicopter
           | were set for the engineers? Five flights or a 100 of flights?
        
             | jdewerd wrote:
             | Definitely a substantial portion of it, but we should be
             | far more scandalized by the damage your typical runaway
             | hype machine does to otherwise brilliant achievements than
             | by NASA's successful efforts to wrangle expectations.
        
           | edf13 wrote:
           | Under promise, over deliver... that's the smart engineering
           | way.
        
             | The_Colonel wrote:
             | No, it's not. As the other commenter nicely explained, this
             | is mostly a byproduct of a very, very low tolerance of
             | failure and extremely difficult conditions, like the
             | impossibility to test it beforehand in the real
             | environment.
             | 
             | Under promise, overdeliver, is a nice way to say that
             | you're dishonest with the client. The fact you can
             | overdeliver means you're making some trade-offs elsewhere,
             | e.g. in design/production price, time, weight or somewhere
             | else.
             | 
             | Overdelivering is a nice byproduct, but it shouldn't be the
             | goal.
        
               | lttlrck wrote:
               | When I see it used it's as a device to set expectations
               | when there are so many variables at play that any promise
               | or commitment would be foolish, lead to disappointment
               | with no upside. And that's how I'd interpret it here too.
               | 
               | It has nothing to do with dishonesty. Though I have no
               | doubt that it might be used that way, that's fraudulent
               | and a whole different ball-game commercially.
        
           | giantrobot wrote:
           | It's not overperforming per se. NASA spacecraft/probes have
           | primary, secondary, and auxiliary missions. Everything on the
           | probe is designed and built with an eye to being able to
           | complete secondary and auxiliary missions but the guarantee
           | (insofar as anything can be) is the probe can accomplish its
           | primary mission.
           | 
           | Unfortunately this leads to uninformed reporters to make
           | stupid claims like "a probe only designed to last 90
           | days...". There's no self destruct or planned obsolescence in
           | NASA probes. They don't have an egg timer set to 90 days and
           | then explode.
           | 
           | The probes are _designed_ to last at least as long as the
           | ability for their consumables /power supply lasts. Consider
           | the stresses of launch, transit through space, and
           | insertion/landing are way worse than day to day conditions
           | for a lot of probes. If they can survive all of that rolling
           | around a desert is relatively easy (in comparison). If
           | Ingenuity made one successful flight there was little reason
           | it couldn't make more so long as it had the appropriate power
           | available and the Martian Space Defense didn't shoot it down.
           | 
           | Ingenuity didn't overperform, it performed according to its
           | actual design and construction. It only overperformed
           | misinformed media expectations.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | > this leads to uninformed reporters to make stupid claims
             | like "a probe only designed to last 90 days...".
             | 
             | C'mon let's not blame the reporters. NASA pushes this line
             | - why do think everyone repeats it, using the same language
             | almost every time? You can even see it here on HN.
        
           | dotnet00 wrote:
           | It comes down to the fact that a poorly educated public and a
           | ruling class of parasites has made it so NASA has negative
           | room for failure. If they don't completely overperform on
           | everything, someone will get dragged before Congress or into
           | a hitpiece, potentially canceling other projects.
           | 
           | Just recently we had a former NASA administrator testifying
           | to a House subcommittee that the entire private space push
           | was a failure and that all the contracts should be cancelled
           | to restart Artemis with the usual SLS-style corruption.
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | > It comes down to the fact that a poorly educated public
             | and a ruling class of parasites has made it so NASA has
             | negative room for failure.
             | 
             | Both basically true yet overdone. Fundamentally the US has
             | an extremely strong punitive blame culture. Too strong, in
             | that it is a distraction, a spectacle, and inhibits
             | resolution of an actual problem, if one even exists. I
             | don't mean this just in government: it's a fundamental part
             | of the American _Weltanschauung_ , one oddly rarely
             | discussed. It seems to be so fundamental that it's simply
             | taken as a given, like the old "fish doesn't know it's wet"
             | metaphor.
             | 
             | FAA is a good example of an organization that implements an
             | opposite approach: crash investigations follow a "what
             | happened so we can address it, not punish" in air crashes,
             | sometimes causing people to complain that "nobody was
             | punished." But without the threat of punishment people are
             | more willing to speak freely, so that hardware or
             | procedures that need changing can actually change.
        
               | ordu wrote:
               | I don't know about USA politics to have an opinion on the
               | matter, so I'd rather believe you assesment. But I want
               | to add another point of data. Or rather point of view
               | from outside.
               | 
               | My experience of communication and collaboration with
               | individual Americans points to the opposite direction.
               | They are focused on a problem solving, not on a blame
               | assignment. I can compare with my fellow Russians, I
               | can't play games with them, because they kill all the fun
               | looking for someone to blame.
               | 
               | But at the same time, if we take a look at our Russian
               | politicians... If they even look for someone to blame,
               | they look for a blatant scapegoat.
               | 
               | So, I mean, it seems like a complete reverse. Probably it
               | is a coincidence or a result of a flawed methodology, but
               | still...
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | > Fundamentally the US has an extremely strong punitive
               | blame culture.
               | 
               | Unless its about people in cars murdering people.
               | 
               | > Too strong, in that it is a distraction, a spectacle,
               | and inhibits resolution of an actual problem, if one even
               | exists
               | 
               | With cars the blame isn't that strong and it still
               | inhibits solving the real problem.
               | 
               | > what happened so we can address it, not punish
               | 
               | I agree that addressing issue is first most important.
               | But we should also hold people accountable too.
        
               | gumby wrote:
               | > > Fundamentally the US has an extremely strong punitive
               | blame culture.
               | 
               | > Unless its about people in cars murdering people.
               | 
               | Sadly I disagree. Blame is almost inevitably
               | assigned...to the victim. In NYC if you drive a truck you
               | can flatten cyclists with impunity because the consensus
               | is always that it was the cyclist's own fault.
               | 
               | >> what happened so we can address it, not punish
               | 
               | > I agree that addressing issue is first most important.
               | But we should also hold people accountable too.
               | 
               | What we need is for motor vehicles to stop crushing the
               | innocent. That's what I mean when I talk about punishment
               | as a distraction.
        
         | rufus_foreman wrote:
         | Underpromise, overdeliver.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | Five nines engineering.
        
         | wolverine876 wrote:
         | While I think NASA is the most incredible organization in human
         | history, be wary of simple underpromising-and-overdelivering:
         | 
         | If everything they build lasts longer than expected, not only
         | are they giving bad estimates (which perverts allocation of
         | resources), they are way too smart and experienced to be doing
         | it unintentionally.
         | 
         | Now if Ford Motor underpromised on your car, telling you it
         | would last 2 years, you wouldn't buy it in the first place -
         | you'd never find out that it really lasts 10 years. But I
         | suspect NASA gets away with it because everyone is blown away
         | by even the underpromised result - helicopters on Mars, holy
         | sh-! - and also nobody has experience with how long Martian
         | helicopters typically fly.
        
           | tracerbulletx wrote:
           | Or the estimates are based around guaranteeing a high
           | statistical chance they hit the estimate which is perfectly
           | fine to do.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | Yes, same thing - and I think we can assume that NASA has
             | people smart enough to know it's the same thing.
        
             | Buttons840 wrote:
             | Yeah, I've often wished organizations I've worked for would
             | define what an "estimate" is. Do they want an estimate I
             | think there's a 50% chance we'll hit, or do they want an
             | estimate I think there's a 99% chance we'll hit? In my
             | experience they want the 50% estimate and expect us to hit
             | that estimate 99% of the time.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | A 99% chance of lasting 5 flights is likely the same build as
           | a 50% chance of lasting 72.
           | 
           | OTOH there is approximately 0% chance a Ford is going to last
           | 10 years without any maintenance or repairs.
        
           | gizmo686 wrote:
           | They never said the helicopter would break down after 5
           | flights. They said it was designed for 5 flights. Shipping it
           | to Mars is expensive and slow, so they build in a lot of
           | margin to increase the odds that they meet the requirements.
           | 
           | Take a much more common example: expiration dates. A product
           | going bad before its expiration date is an issue. Potential a
           | massive one that could kill people. A product that remains in
           | good condition after its expiration date is fine. As a
           | result, expiration dates almost always occur far before the
           | product actually expires.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | > They never said the helicopter would break down after 5
             | flights. They said it was designed for 5 flights.
             | 
             | That is salesperson talk. NASA has been doing public
             | communication half a century too, and they know what people
             | will take from it.
        
           | sitharus wrote:
           | It's more like Ford sell you a car that's guaranteed to have
           | no breakdowns or need oil changes for the first two years. It
           | might run a lot longer, but you they only promise two years
           | so you plan to use it for that long.
           | 
           | If it broke in those two years you'd be very upset, but if it
           | does last longer that's a bonus.
        
           | duxup wrote:
           | >be wary of simple underpromising-and-overdelivering
           | 
           | Is that actually the case when it comes to the helicopter in
           | question?
        
       | jncfhnb wrote:
       | It's kind of hard to imagine a river without life. Life seems so
       | quintessential to the mental image of a river.
        
         | KyleBerezin wrote:
         | Check out photos of the Onyx river in Antartica.
        
       | robotnikman wrote:
       | Its surprising how long those electronics lasted considering they
       | were just regular off the shelf components and not rad-hardened
        
         | wolverine876 wrote:
         | Why wouldn't they use better than off-the-shelf components for
         | job like this one? That doesn't seem like a money-saving
         | decision.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | COTS FTW
         | 
         | There's a big argument going on in military procurement right
         | now about the high $ state of the art drones vs cheap &
         | adequate.
        
       | roughly wrote:
       | Somehow I forgot we're flying a helicopter on Mars. For all the
       | other bullshit we do as a species, we do get up to some pretty
       | neat stuff, too.
        
         | Loughla wrote:
         | It's astounding to me that we're capable of flying a remote
         | vehicle on a literally other planet, but we also kill each
         | other in large numbers over whose god is correct.
         | 
         | Genuinely astounding to me, and slightly disappointing.
        
           | Mountain_Skies wrote:
           | We kill for lots of reasons, some as trivial as wanting the
           | pocket change another person has on them.
        
           | c22 wrote:
           | No doubt someday we'll be killing people on other planets
           | with remote vehicles.
        
           | OmarShehata wrote:
           | "killing each other over whose god is correct" is a profound
           | misunderstanding of humanity. That's not why humans kill each
           | other now, or in any time in history. It is and always has
           | been simple & rational game theory: fear of the other tribe
           | killing you for your resources, or just simply because
           | they're afraid you might kill them for _their_ resources.
           | 
           | For example, this is (one of) the core reasons of why peace
           | in Israel/Palestine is so hard (each side fears accepting
           | sovereignty of the other side means they will continue to
           | encroach and wipe them out).
           | 
           | Humans are pretty clever and ingenious at all levels
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | That's true sometimes, but sometimes people just want to
             | take what their neighbors have. Russia's government faced
             | no risk of Ukraine attacking, or NATO for that matter. They
             | just wanted Ukraine.
        
           | wolverine876 wrote:
           | Remind me why we are killing each other? Is it for survival?
           | 
           | OT: We know everything we need to survive and prosper very
           | well - imperfectly, but with margin of error to spare,
           | including capable political systems. The people still killing
           | are just criminals who want to steal and murder.
        
           | squarefoot wrote:
           | Could be worth plotting a chart that shows how many of those
           | who kill over some deity related reasons could also be part
           | of those who design, build and operate remote vehicles on
           | another planet, and the other way around.
        
         | dontupvoteme wrote:
         | I forgot which probe and celestial objects it was, but at one
         | point NASA was investigating a moon around Jupiter or Saturn,
         | thought about dumping it there for nice photos (it was out of
         | fuel iirc) and then they realized that it might have life on
         | it.
         | 
         | So they intentionally crashed it into the planet instead as to
         | not potentially contaminate said moon - possibly our first
         | implementation of the prime directive!
        
           | dotnet00 wrote:
           | We did that with Cassini on Saturn, and we intend to do that
           | with Juno on Jupiter.
           | 
           | But, on the other hand, while measures are taken to ensure
           | that spacecraft headed to other bodies are not contaminated,
           | we've also found that life still often manages to find a way.
           | So I thibk the various landings on Mars, and the lander on
           | Titan (plus the quadcopter heading there later this decade)
           | are somewhat likely to have brought along some extremely
           | resilient (but dormant) life anyway.
        
       | ChrisBland wrote:
       | It has lost contact before and come back online. Sometimes the
       | communications signals can get blocked, expect the rover to more
       | closer to get a visual and attempt to establish contact. If the
       | helicopter lost signal it goes into an auto land mode similar to
       | what drones do when they lose signal.
        
       | NooneAtAll3 wrote:
       | I'll be waiting for Mars Guy[1] video before forming an opinion
       | 
       | It has already happened before, when the helicopter flew far
       | ahead of the rover and just stayed there until rover caught up
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/@MarsGuy
        
       | hyperthesis wrote:
       | oblig. https://xkcd.com/695/
        
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