[HN Gopher] Norwegian youth win climate court case against the N...
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       Norwegian youth win climate court case against the Norwegian State
        
       Author : velmu
       Score  : 114 points
       Date   : 2024-01-18 20:08 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.greenpeace.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.greenpeace.org)
        
       | toomuchtodo wrote:
       | Related: https://apnews.com/article/youth-climate-lawsuit-
       | montana-sup... ("AP: Montana Supreme Court upholds landmark
       | climate ruling that said emissions can't be ignored")
        
       | Gys wrote:
       | > rendering the approvals of three oil and gas fields in the
       | North Sea invalid
        
         | xenospn wrote:
         | Norwegian GDP just took a hit
        
           | voisin wrote:
           | It boggles my mind that we allow GDP to not account for
           | externalities to the environment. Like burning a wick, we
           | cheer the flame with no consideration for the dynamite at the
           | other end.
        
             | nathancahill wrote:
             | For a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value
             | for shareholders.
        
             | legitster wrote:
             | It's _gross_ domestic product, not net.
             | 
             | The problem is that anytime someone attempts to quantify
             | the cost of climate change, no one is happy with the
             | numbers.
        
             | diob wrote:
             | Reminds me of the mindset of the species in Pandora's Star
             | by Peter F. Hamilton. They basically accepted that they
             | would die fast due to toxins / radiation / disasters for
             | "progress" / "efficiency", and instead just focused on
             | trucking forward and breeding like mad.
        
             | brutusborn wrote:
             | GDP is just a measure, and it doesn't include
             | externalities. Any state or person is free to make up their
             | own metric that includes it. Call it GDP_E and put it in
             | every government report!
             | 
             | Saying it should include externalities is like saying that
             | the scales at the butchers should include nutrition
             | information with weight: that would be cool but that's not
             | what scales/weight measures are for.
        
             | roenxi wrote:
             | If we're going to include negative externalities then
             | someone has to figure out all the positive ones too. The
             | economic upside of cheap energy isn't being accounted for
             | in the price either, because low prices tautologically
             | can't capture high value per unit and flows on to people
             | further down the value chain.
             | 
             | The challenge of doing so is insurmountable, that way is
             | the madness of centralised planning.
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | The first order negative impact of burning fossil fuels
               | is stuff like pollution, global warming etc. This is not
               | accounted for by the price of these fuels.
               | 
               | The first order positive impacts of burning fossil fuels
               | are accounted for in the price of the fuels. That's what
               | people are paying for. I need to drive a car, here is
               | some money for oil.
               | 
               | What you are apparently talking about are the second
               | order positive impact of fossil fuels. Some upside due to
               | living in an environment of abundant cheap energy. I
               | think you will have to argue more that these second order
               | effects are comparable in size to the first order
               | effects.
        
               | roenxi wrote:
               | Which reminds me; who are these people who are being hit
               | by the pollution and aren't using fossil fuels? They
               | aren't people in Norway; they're all living a lavish
               | lifestyle full of stuff created with fossil fuels. That
               | isn't a real externality. To a first approximation we're
               | already paying for a large chunk of the price for the
               | pollution generated on our behalf.
               | 
               |  _PostScript_ Whoever it is would be much better off
               | getting more access to fossil fuels than having access
               | curtailed. China did not become a wealthy industrial
               | powerhouse with environmentalist policies. The argument
               | that negative externalities are a problem is silly;
               | clearly curtailing fossil fuel access is more damaging.
               | Sucks to be Africa or wherever with spotty oil
               | infrastructure and access. Whether it is technically an
               | externality or not, it is clear that unaffected third
               | parties would benefit from more oil, not less.
               | 
               | The externalities are clearly not being accounted for
               | properly/are not net negative when curtailing a thing
               | causes living standards overall to drop.
        
               | zmgsabst wrote:
               | Global warming is a second order effect of abundant CO2
               | production.
               | 
               | Why does your second order effect count, but not readily
               | available sterile hospital materials made of petroleum?
        
               | bertil wrote:
               | > economic upside of cheap energy isn't being accounted
               | for
               | 
               | It is: we anticipate companies to operate "indefinitely,"
               | which turns to a high market value. Banks sell that
               | stock, pension funds store it, and their activity is
               | accounted for.
               | 
               | What we don't consider (in the GDP, company valuations,
               | bank transactions, or any metric) is how the millions of
               | people who will survive the first mass wet-bulb death
               | event will react.
        
             | Aunche wrote:
             | The cost of oil production in Norway is high compared to
             | most OPEC countries, so net production will mostly flat.
             | They can just loosen their grip a bit. The GDP would drop
             | for nothing.
        
           | bethekind wrote:
           | Whenever Green Peace is happy, GDP always suffers
        
             | Epa095 wrote:
             | In general short term goals (like current GDP) often takes
             | a hit when long term goals (like the cost of the
             | externalities) gets added to the mix.
             | 
             | But you can't just max out that credit card all the time
             | you know.
        
           | elil17 wrote:
           | A country like Norway, with one of the highest GDPs per
           | capita in the world (significantly higher than even
           | America's), is exactly the country that should be thinking
           | about the environment before they think about economic
           | development.
        
             | tordrt wrote:
             | The environmental effects of stopping oil and gas
             | production in Norway are not clear. Norway account for
             | something like 2% of the worlds production. OPEC are
             | already price fixing the market, and could (and propably
             | would) easily replace Norways production. Some reports
             | argue it will even increase emissions due to being replaced
             | by less sustainable produciton.
             | 
             | The developing world is too dependent on oil and gas. Rapid
             | degrowth in global oil and gas production would lead to
             | mass hunger. It is only the developed world who can afford
             | to stop using oil and gas at the moment. We have to replace
             | the worlds energy needs with something else, before we take
             | environmental choices to cut production. Third world
             | countries suffer without cheap oil and gas.
        
       | bethekind wrote:
       | Is this really a win?
       | 
       | You need a strong economy to shift to a Green future. Norway was
       | a small country before oil and gas, now they've made the best use
       | of it out of any country in the world.
       | 
       | Shouldnt they keep their foot on the pedal a little longer?
       | Making new battery technology isn't cheap.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | If a house was on fire, what would you consider a win to put it
         | out? Or would you do everything possible to put it out? As the
         | climate continues to rapidly change, the tolerance for
         | extraordinary measures would rise I would imagine (especially
         | amongst youth cohorts who will inherit the cleanup over the
         | next ~100 years).
         | 
         | Shareholder value had a cost (industrialization in general
         | [1]), and now it must be paid back.
         | 
         | [1] https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2
        
           | brutusborn wrote:
           | Bad analogy. If your house is on fire, there is no
           | opportunity cost to putting it out and there is no
           | uncertainty. You have nothing to lose. If an asteroid was
           | headed for earth you would be on the money, but climate
           | change isn't like that.
           | 
           | It is a relatively gradual change with a lot of uncertainty
           | about the final magnitudes of warming and the actual risk
           | involved. Bad policy to reduce emissions have opportunity
           | costs. E.g. biofuels policy exacerbating starvation in the
           | 3rd world. Read Bjorn Lomborg, he suggests the best policies
           | as well as other problems we should prioritise above climate
           | change. Then read Judith Curry to better understand the risks
           | involved.
           | 
           | It's not black and white and choosing solutions is hard but
           | random countries turning off their fossil fuels is not an
           | effective policy.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | Fossil fuels will need to be left in the ground [1] [2],
             | it's as simple as that. The value of those reserves and
             | assets on books, if not naturally declining to zero, must
             | be forced to zero. If nations or corporations act self
             | interested and don't leave them in the ground [3], what do
             | you expect to be done as the world burns? Nothing? That's
             | not an option.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/climate-majority-of-
             | fossil-f... ("The vast majority of the world's known fossil
             | fuel reserves must be kept in the ground to have even a 50%
             | chance of keeping global temperatures from rising 1.5
             | degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.")
             | 
             | [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8
             | ("Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit
             | global warming to well below 2 degC and to pursue efforts
             | to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degC relative to
             | pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to
             | dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in
             | their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase
             | below 1.5 degC (refs. 2,3,4,5,6,7). Here we use a global
             | energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels
             | that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and
             | globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of
             | limiting warming to 1.5 degC. By 2050, we find that nearly
             | 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent
             | of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 degC
             | carbon budget. This is a large increase in the
             | unextractable estimates for a 2 degC carbon budget9,
             | particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent
             | of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we
             | estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally
             | by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most
             | regions must reach peak production now or during the next
             | decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel
             | projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of
             | the production changes required, because a greater than 50
             | per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 degC
             | requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of
             | uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative
             | emission technologies at scale.")
             | 
             | [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38506585 ("HN:
             | Cop28 president says 'no science' behind demands for phase-
             | out of fossil fuels")
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | It's definitely not that simple. Ask yourself: why did
               | the international committee use 2C as a limit? Why not 3C
               | or 4C?
               | 
               | I suspect is is because it is based on politics and not
               | science but I'm open to being corrected.
               | 
               | Also ask yourself: if fossil fuels are used to produce
               | medicine and fertiliser with zero emissions, why would we
               | want to stop producing them?
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | I don't mean to be rude, in the slightest, but your
               | suspicions are based on nothing but your own opinion
               | (unless you're a climate scientist) and I'm going to
               | defer to subject matter experts. I'm not a scientist, but
               | I listen to them [1] [2] [3]. Your submission history
               | indicates a hint of climate denier [4] and your comment
               | here [5] about carbon capture being in use at scale and
               | successful is an outright falsehood (direct air capture
               | is very expensive and in its infancy, and the cost of
               | sequestering is not included in the cost of fuel
               | consumed), so here we are. I am doing my best to argue in
               | good faith.
               | 
               | > Also ask yourself: if fossil fuels are used to produce
               | medicine and fertiliser with zero emissions, why would we
               | want to stop producing them?
               | 
               | When you can prove this can be done, certainly, I'll
               | agree with you. But there must be evidence, and it must
               | be provided. Hope and misdirection is not a strategy.
               | 
               | [1] https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-
               | on-clima... ("Do scientists agree on climate change? Yes,
               | the vast majority of actively publishing climate
               | scientists - 97 percent - agree that humans are causing
               | global warming and climate change. Most of the leading
               | science organizations around the world have issued public
               | statements expressing this, including international and
               | U.S. science academies, the United Nations
               | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a whole
               | host of reputable scientific bodies around the world. A
               | list of these organizations is provided here [next
               | citation].")
               | 
               | [2] https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
               | 
               | [3] http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-
               | organizations... ("The following page lists the nearly
               | 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the
               | position that climate change has been caused by human
               | action.")
               | 
               | [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36307850
               | 
               | [5] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39047555
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | I work with a few climate scientists so my opinions
               | aren't my own. I referenced 2 researchers above, what is
               | wrong with their opinions?
               | 
               | [4] isn't climate denial, it was an attempt to get some
               | criticism of an interesting heterodox theory, and I found
               | it! [5] CCS is being used at large scale on many
               | projects. Maybe we have different definitions of "at
               | scale" and "successful"
               | 
               | I don't need to prove it can be done: we already produce
               | these with emissions and we already have CCS to avoid
               | these emissions, there is nothing technological stopping
               | this except economics.
               | 
               | The consensus is that climate change is real and I agree
               | wholeheartedly. What I disagree with is exaggerations of
               | the negative outcomes and rejections of technological
               | solutions based on politics rather than science. In this
               | aspect you will find many conflicting opinions.
               | 
               | Also please answer my question about 2C. Asking this is
               | what led me to realising how much of climate policy is
               | based on convenient politics and not science.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | > Also please answer my question about 2C. Asking this is
               | what led me to realising how much of climate policy is
               | based on convenient politics and not science.
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/whats-difference-
               | betwee... ("Explainer: What's the difference between
               | 1.5degC and 2degC of global warming?")
               | 
               | https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-
               | why-g... ("A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures
               | Matter")
               | 
               | https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/1-5-or-2-degre
               | es-... ("1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius of additional global
               | warming: Does it make a difference?")
               | 
               | You keep saying climate policy is based on politics, but
               | you are not providing any evidence of that. Please
               | provide evidence of your assertion this is political. You
               | argue that "there is nothing technological stopping this
               | except economics"; that means it isn't feasible unless
               | proven the economics will improve. A proof of concept
               | does not guarantee scale.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | My evidence is the lack of a basis for 2C and lack of a
               | cogent plan to limit warming to 2C. I tried to find the
               | basis and instead just found lots of IPCC discussions
               | with no scientific basis.
               | 
               | That's why I asked: you can find articles saying that a
               | degree of difference is very important, but not the basis
               | for why 2C is used.
               | 
               | If you are arguing that fossil fuels must be shut down
               | immediately, you must have an understanding of why 2C is
               | used, and the difference in harm between 2C and whatever
               | we end up with if we keep emitting. If you are not aware
               | of this science in these cases then you are basing your
               | beliefs on politics.
        
             | yongjik wrote:
             | The way I understand it, the "uncertainty" about global
             | warming as of 2024 is the same kind of uncertainty as
             | whether an alcoholic with liver cancer can live three or
             | six more months if he continues ignoring his doctor's
             | advice.
             | 
             | I'm open to discussions about different approaches and
             | their relative merits, but we're beyond the point where "we
             | don't know how bad it will get" is a valid argument for
             | anything.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | If you don't know how bad it will get, how can you
               | balance the negatives of remediation?
               | 
               | For example, if the world was ending next year it might
               | make sense to turn off all fossil fuels and eradicate
               | most of the human population. But if it is only a few
               | degrees per century we can consider... better options.
        
               | yongjik wrote:
               | Holy strawman, who said anything about eradicating most
               | of humans?
               | 
               | Let me rephrase: realistically speaking, the things
               | humanity will manage to do in the next 10 years will be
               | such a lukewarm attempt that the chance we will
               | "accidentally" overshoot and create more misery is close
               | to zero.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | Again, If you don't know how bad it will get, how can you
               | balance the negatives of remediation?
               | 
               | We already created misery via starvation due to biomass
               | subsidies, what makes you think our future policies will
               | be harmless?
               | 
               | Of course my example was absurd, but it illustrates the
               | trade offs involved.
        
           | oh_sigh wrote:
           | Will climate change negatively affect Norway? Clearly there
           | are big time losers with climate change, but is Norway's
           | house really on fire? Or is it a house on the other side of
           | town that is on fire and has little chance of impacting
           | Norway's house?
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | "Shareholder value had a cost, and now it must be paid back"
           | 
           | The problem is, it is voluntarily.
        
         | Deprecate9151 wrote:
         | Reading the article, none of that seems to be in scope for the
         | decision. The decision seems to focus on the fact these new
         | locations didn't adequately meet their existing impact analysis
         | requirements in the first place, not that the impact was deemed
         | unacceptable.
        
         | mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote:
         | We already have a massive sovereign wealth fund built from
         | investments seeded by oil income.
         | 
         | Last year, large phosphate deposits were found in Norway,
         | effectively doubling the known world supply. Given a similar
         | taxation model, we could keep growing the wealth fund even as
         | we phase out the oil industry over time.
         | 
         | Though oil industry phase-out is not something with a political
         | consensus behind it right now anyway. Labour and the
         | conservatives tend to reach across the aisle on that topic.
        
       | AnimalMuppet wrote:
       | I'm not an expert on the Norwegian court system, but they seem to
       | have a Supreme Court, so I assume this can be appealed. And,
       | since it's a completely novel[1] ruling, and the state has a
       | large amount of money they could receive if this were overturned,
       | I expect it will be appealed.
       | 
       | [1] "Novel" meaning "without precedent in Norwegian rulings". I
       | did not mean "without foundation" or "unreasonable".
        
         | Ekaros wrote:
         | Seems to be District Court. Seems to be somewhat similar to
         | Finnish system. Where district court basically deliver most
         | random and weird decisions. Then they generally get appealed to
         | court of appeals. Which is more logical place. Likely this will
         | be overturned there. And then end in supreme court...
        
           | kwhitefoot wrote:
           | It was Oslo Tingrett, This is the lowest level ordinary court
           | (there are 23 of them), above is the Lagmannsrett (6 of them)
           | with handles appeals from the Tingrett. Above the
           | Lagmannsrett is the Hoyesterett (High Court) which again
           | handles appeals from lower courts. As far as I know cases
           | cannot be brought directly in the high court but must
           | progress through the lower courts first.
           | 
           | Both tingrett and lagmannsrett are district courts in the
           | sense that the cover specific geographical areas (kretser,
           | circuits).
           | 
           | https://www.domstol.no/no/om-rettssystemet/de-alminnelige-
           | do...
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | Are there now grounds to start shutting down existing oil fields?
       | 
       | Something like 20% of the government budget comes from oil
       | revenue, and the entire pension system (to my understanding)
       | comes from oil funds.
        
         | beepbooptheory wrote:
         | Its funny how things always seem to be set up like that...
         | 
         | Oh, sure, you want the state to stop doing bad environmental
         | things? Well, ok, as long as you pay for it!
        
         | Deprecate9151 wrote:
         | It does not seem so, the artcile indicates the court focused on
         | procedural issues related to the impact assessment required for
         | the permits to build the new oil locations. The issues seems to
         | be focused on the fact they weren't done, or were incomplete. I
         | would imagine only pump locations with similar deficiencies
         | would be in trouble.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | > combustion emissions [from] petroleum extraction are such a
           | significant and particularly characteristic consequence of
           | such projects that they must clearly be considered indirect
           | climate impacts within the meaning of the (EU) Project
           | Directive
           | 
           | It didn't seem particular to the locations. Under this
           | ruling, if the oil gets shipped to India and burned there
           | they would now need to include it in the local impact
           | assessment.
           | 
           | Maybe they just need to resubmit with a new impact
           | assessment? But it does seem like the precedent they are
           | trying to set is to reject _all_ projects based on emissions.
        
             | Deprecate9151 wrote:
             | It may functionally stop all new projects (although I doubt
             | that it will get that far).
             | 
             | I don't see anything implying that existing projects
             | approved under the old framework would need to be re-
             | assessed and shutdown though. That was my main point.
        
               | legitster wrote:
               | If there is legal precedent that carbon emissions from
               | sovereign oil sources potentially violate the UN
               | Convention on the Rights of the Child, there's no reason
               | to believe there would not immediately be new cases
               | opened up against existing projects on the same grounds.
        
               | Deprecate9151 wrote:
               | They could open the cases, but this decision hinged on
               | the permitting process not following the law that it
               | needed to consider emissions, which the Rights of the
               | Chile was a component of.
               | 
               | It is not a given the reasoning used in this decision
               | could be used for oil and gas projects that followed a
               | proper permit process at the time they were granted.
               | There is more reason to believe this case would NOT apply
               | in that situation.
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | And what about the sovereign wealth fund? That money came from
         | historical fossil fuel extraction, after all.
        
           | mthoms wrote:
           | What about it?
        
         | dools wrote:
         | Norway issue their own currency, so 100% of their budget comes
         | from money they spend into existence.
         | 
         | Oil has an impact on their ability to import, and on their
         | ability to meet their own energy requirements.
        
           | abfan1127 wrote:
           | that's not exactly correct given the inflationary nature of
           | printing to "spend into existence." History is filled with
           | crumbled societies printing their own money as mention.
        
           | tordrt wrote:
           | What do you mean by spend into existence? If they collect
           | much more money in taxes and investments than they spend
           | (which they ary), are they then really spending anything into
           | existence?
        
         | bertil wrote:
         | I can't speak intelligently about the relationship between the
         | pension fund and the wealth fund (it is complicated), but I
         | _think_ you overestimate the share of upcoming revenue from oil
         | over the on-going benefit from operating a fund that is betting
         | on sustainable solutions. Someone smarter than me should
         | correct the record here.
         | 
         | However, the key information here is neither side of that
         | contradiction, but that Norway has found a very large deposit
         | of Phosphorous. Until now, Marocco has the largest reserves (by
         | so much it's actually daunting, confusing really, how they
         | didn't end up like the Saudi Arabia of bird poop, which is
         | essential for growing food, so a tad more essential than
         | burning donuts).
         | 
         | Norway seem keen to leverage that the way they leveraged fossil
         | fuels, so I'd expect that fund to grow bigger, faster, and
         | without the discomfort of selling something that could, and
         | most likely will, end up drowning Norwegian towns.
        
       | Luc wrote:
       | Isn't Greenpeace's ideology aligned with degrowth nowadays? I
       | remember reading how they were against carbon capture (and, of
       | course, geo-engineering).
        
         | pretendgeneer wrote:
         | Being against Carbon Capture and geo-engineering is just
         | following the science.
         | 
         | Carbon capture has constantly been shown to just not work at
         | any scale. and geo-engineering causes so many extra problems
         | and will absolutely lead to termination shock at some point.
        
           | madsbuch wrote:
           | can you make a scientific argument that carbon capture and
           | geo engineering will not work at scale.
           | 
           | if not, then you are just littering with words.
        
             | hnbad wrote:
             | Carbon capture technologies produce more carbon emissions
             | than they can capture if you account for the resource use
             | for production and construction. Even when they do slightly
             | better than breaking even the margin is so low that scaling
             | it up is not a meaningful contribution relative to the
             | amount of emissions we would need to counteract. This is
             | unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
             | 
             | Geo engineering to the degree necessary to revert climate
             | change is bad sci-fi, not science, no matter what
             | billionaires selling personal EVs are telling you.
             | 
             | On the other hand we know that we are seeing an immense
             | problem of overproduction which is incentivized by the
             | economic system and impossible to tackle by blaming
             | consumers for bad choices and asking the industry nicely to
             | reduce waste or letting them get away with greenwashing by
             | planting trees and raising honey bees. We could change that
             | but it would require significant market intervention, which
             | we (most Western nations at least) have been ideologically
             | opposed to for decades.
        
           | newsclues wrote:
           | You understand "following the science" arguments are stupid
           | right?
        
             | codetrotter wrote:
             | No. Why?
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | Because science just updates our beliefs, it doesn't
               | produce 'truths' that we can follow. See the Problem of
               | Induction or the Duhem-Quine thesis.
        
               | hnbad wrote:
               | What do you think truth is other than confident beliefs?
               | 
               | Nothing can produce "truths". If you want absolute
               | truths, pick a holy text and decide for yourself what
               | absolute truth you can pin on it.
        
               | newsclues wrote:
               | It's a process not an end state.
               | 
               | "Follow science" and 'follow "the" science' are two
               | different things, and we just need to go back in history
               | to understand that humans did some horrible stuff because
               | of "the" science.
        
               | codetrotter wrote:
               | Hm.. I don't see that distinction in this case.
               | 
               | To me when they say they "follow the science" it does not
               | imply an end state. To me it only implies "everything we
               | know so far".
               | 
               | I am sure that if scientific results showed the opposite
               | of their current idea, they would once again update their
               | view.
        
             | was_a_dev wrote:
             | It isn't if you aren't a scientist in that field. As you're
             | not qualified to do otherwise.
             | 
             | As a physicist in quantum sensing. I follow the science
             | (opinion) of climate scientists as they're the experts of
             | that field. And that opinion is constantly evolving, but I
             | follow that.
             | 
             | Anything else is just being an armchair scientist.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | Surely a physicist is best placed to 'Nullius in Verba'
               | and to do his own research. Climate models are
               | fundamentally physical simulations after all...
        
               | downWidOutaFite wrote:
               | Everything is fundamentally physics.
        
               | was_a_dev wrote:
               | Climate models are fundamentally physical, but I don't
               | have the insight in the field to have the deep insight to
               | make qualified opinions.
               | 
               | I could after significant research as suggested. But that
               | is a significant endeavour, hence following the opinion
               | of the field is typically sufficient.
               | 
               | It's like a fronted developer making comments on kernel
               | development and vice versa. It's both fundamentally code,
               | but different fields.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | I think if you've looked at numerical models then you
               | have enough knowledge to at least judge the underlying
               | assumptions: boundary conditions, numerical stability,
               | discretisation methods, validation methods and results.
               | 
               | In the same way that I can verify a SAT solution, I don't
               | need to know how to code a sat solver.
               | 
               | Unfortunately there are fundamental disagreements about
               | most of the critical parts of climate science, so going
               | by the opinion of the field isn't foolproof (who to
               | choose? How to choose?). Many fields have had false
               | consensus beliefs before, and most of their problems
               | weren't 1000th the difficulty of climate modelling.
        
               | ipaddr wrote:
               | That's called gatekeeping. Wonderful opinions can come
               | for anyone.
               | 
               | A scientist is someone who found someone to pay them.
               | Nothing more, nothing less.
               | 
               | Ignoring ideas unless they came from a brand is the
               | opposite of science. Then you drop your brand (physicist)
               | and expect others to judge your opinion as more
               | important. It didn't work. As a senior physicist in
               | quantum sensing I'm invalidating your brand.
        
               | was_a_dev wrote:
               | Wonderful opinions can come from anyone.
               | 
               | Are these scientifically founded opinions. Not
               | necessarily, hence why "following the science" is valid
               | if you are following experts in their field.
               | 
               | If you're a software consultant, would you take on the
               | opinions from a marketing client on the best algorithm to
               | implement for their solution? Probably not.
               | 
               | If someone put in the effort and time to throughly
               | research the topic and draw an opinion from that.
               | Regardless of their title or their funding, then why
               | would you discount it?
        
           | wahnfrieden wrote:
           | Ideologues won't accept it because they are waiting for a
           | technology solution and these are the best they've seen
           | offered so far. Their optimism is predicated on market driven
           | technology solutions saving us quickly enough. Negativity
           | toward their favorite technology solutions is interpreted as
           | pessimism toward their ideology.
        
           | brutusborn wrote:
           | Carbon capture is being successfully used all around the
           | world. It's in its infancy, but so were solar panels decades
           | ago, and we didn't give up on them.
           | 
           | We don't have enough data on geoengineering to judge yet,
           | there is no real science to follow.
           | 
           | Also I don't understand this attitude of rejecting potential
           | solutions outright. Science doesn't "prove" things, we can't
           | 'follow' it due to the problem of induction. So we should
           | stay open minded and support all potential solutions, not
           | just those we like best.
        
             | barbazoo wrote:
             | Without a massive amount of renewable energy we won't be
             | able use CCS at scale.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | Why not? If we burn gas using CCS and develop a lot of
               | nuclear, we wouldn't even need renewable energy. I'm not
               | saying it's bad, just that it's not essential (and may
               | actually be a distraction in e.g. Germany where it has
               | displaced nuclear development and resulted in coal plants
               | being reopened).
        
               | barbazoo wrote:
               | I should have said "clean energy", you are obviously
               | right about nuclear power.
        
             | bertil wrote:
             | > Carbon capture is being successfully used all around the
             | world.
             | 
             | [Citation needed]
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | > geo-engineering causes so many extra problems and will
           | absolutely lead to termination shock at some point.
           | 
           | This doesn't sound like a terribly scientific assessment.
           | 
           | Climate change is either an environmental disaster and
           | geoengineering would be a huge risk - or climate change is an
           | existential threat to humanity in which case we have nothing
           | to lose. Which is it?
        
             | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
             | >existential threat to humanity in which case we have
             | nothing to lose
             | 
             | Being under threat doesn't justify making things worst. I
             | know I'll die some day but that's not a reason to be
             | suicidal.
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | Existential threat means things can't get worse (you just
               | stop existing).
               | 
               | Ignoring the potential of geoengineering implies you are
               | sure that we have a better solution which will work. I
               | hope we don't have to use geoengineering but I am certain
               | the status quo of hoping renewables and batteries in the
               | 1st world will save us is not going to work.
        
               | IlliOnato wrote:
               | Threat is not certainty. If somebody is out there to kill
               | you, you are under an existential threat, until they are
               | caught. It's not a reason to start playing Russian
               | roulette, saying "I'm already in danger, cannot get worse
               | than that!"
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | The same logic applies to shutting down oil and gas
               | production: if we are not certain, then why risk the
               | downsides?
               | 
               | I'm not saying this is a good way to think, just that it
               | shows the fault in your logic.
        
               | InSteady wrote:
               | >The same logic applies to shutting down oil and gas
               | production: if we are not certain, then why risk the
               | downsides?
               | 
               | You are conflating the cost of not extracting a fraction
               | of a fraction of current production capacity with the
               | risk ending human existence through changing systems we
               | do not have anything close to a full understanding of nor
               | precise control over.
               | 
               | Degrees of risk matter, in fact they are the whole point
               | of GPs logic.
        
             | pretendgeneer wrote:
             | Climate change can be an existential threat to humanity and
             | Geo-Engineering can make it worse at the same time.
        
               | legitster wrote:
               | How can something be worse than an existential threat?
               | 
               | If you knew you were going to die next week, what's to
               | stop you from picking up smoking right now?
               | 
               | The truth is we don't need geoengineering because the
               | truth is that it's not an existential threat for
               | humanity, it's just the future is going to suck really
               | hard for a lot of people if we don't get off our our
               | collective asses.
               | 
               | Going around moaning "we're all doomed and there's no use
               | trying" is exactly the opposite of what we need right
               | now.
        
           | barbazoo wrote:
           | https://messaging-custom-
           | newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/ren...
           | 
           | The rich love using future carbon capture to justify present
           | day inaction.
        
           | downWidOutaFite wrote:
           | Trying to capture carbon out of the air makes zero sense
           | besides as anti climate change propaganda. Why wouldn't you
           | capture the carbon at the source of the emission where it is
           | much more concentrated? I'll tell you why, because then the
           | cost is born by the emitter but they'd rather shift that cost
           | onto society as a whole.
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | I have no idea what Greenpeace's position on carbon capture is,
         | but it's definitely isn't anti-growth to oppose carbon capture.
         | 
         | And when I say "carbon capture" I of course mean "pinning our
         | hopes on carbon capture". If _actual, working, viable_ carbon
         | capture existed then nobody would be against doing it, but that
         | 's a pipe dream. It's always going to be more economic to not
         | burn stuff than to burn it and then unburn it.
         | 
         | Kind of like carbon credits. If they were real they'd be a
         | pretty decent idea, but they're basically full scam.
        
           | IlliOnato wrote:
           | Well, one more condition is needed: scalable. An actual,
           | working, viable carbon capture exists: growing trees and then
           | cutting down and carbonizing them. Unfortunately, this does
           | not scale to offset enough of CO2 in time.
        
         | Barrin92 wrote:
         | >Isn't Greenpeace's ideology
         | 
         | The only thing that's ideological is advocating for a
         | technology that uses virtually as much energy to put carbon
         | back into the ground than the carbon yielded in the first
         | place, when the alternative is to simply not take it out of the
         | ground to begin with.
         | 
         | Carbon capture is like trying to cool your room by leaving the
         | fridge door open or running on the treadmill while eating fast
         | food. Trying to delegitimize efforts just by labelling them
         | 'degrowth' as if that is an actual argument, needs to stop.
         | It's the pro-growth cult that causes us to constantly have to
         | invent solutions for problems that we could avoid in the first
         | place.
        
       | onyxringer wrote:
       | Putin approves. Emissions will stay the same, but you'll by the
       | oil from Russia.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | Correct. Demand is all that matters. This BS is just supply
         | side economics for liberals.
        
           | pxeger1 wrote:
           | Decreasing the supply increases the price, so demand will
           | decrease. Although it's hard to apply classical economics to
           | the oil market when it's so far from a free market (OPEC
           | etc.)
        
       | xiphias2 wrote:
       | I would strongly support focusing on getting rid of wood / coal
       | burning first instead of going for much more efficient gas.
       | 
       | An import tax on coal burning countries (especially China) would
       | push the incentives in the right direction instead of outsourcing
       | the climate externalities to them.
        
         | iknowstuff wrote:
         | Norway has the most heat pumps per capita and coal is 3% of
         | their energy supply, so what prompted this comment?
        
           | ImJamal wrote:
           | What does that have to do with outsourcing to China and
           | others?
        
         | hutzlibu wrote:
         | "China is the world's leader in electricity production from
         | renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of
         | the second-ranking country, the United States. China's
         | renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels
         | and nuclear power capacity"
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China
         | 
         | There are many things you can say about china, but they do take
         | climate change serious (maybe because they have already
         | problems with desertification).
        
           | jahnu wrote:
           | Indeed!
           | 
           | " The International Energy Agency estimates that China more
           | than doubled its solar generation capacity and added two-
           | thirds to its wind generation capacity in 2023."
           | 
           | https://archive.is/b0qif
        
           | hcurtiss wrote:
           | How can you say that when they are simultaneously radically
           | increasing coal power generation, as highlighted in the
           | article? It appears to me they have an "all of the above"
           | strategy driven by their desire for prosperity.
        
         | reducesuffering wrote:
         | You're in a thread about climate change. How is burning wood
         | contributing to climate change? It's a renewable energy source
         | on the scale of ~20 years, in contrast to digging up million
         | year old fossil fuels. Many people around the world use local
         | fallen trees on their property as their energy source, rather
         | than decompose into the same carbon cycle. Would you rather
         | them import fossil fuel natural gas right now? Areas have to do
         | controlled burns of wood anyway to manage forest fires. You
         | only want to prevent the cases where masses of forest is razed
         | with no plan to regrow.
         | 
         | I feel like this is a case where urbanites with no idea how
         | rural life works attempt to legislate their naivety onto others
         | for the worse, like the rural firefighter responsibly managing
         | their property and the forests of their state.
        
         | bllguo wrote:
         | there are millions and millions of people still living in rural
         | villages. how dare they want electricity? they should be
         | sacrificing their already meager quality of life to fix
         | problems that Westerners are disproportionately responsible
         | for, and subsidize profligate Western consumption.
        
         | burkaman wrote:
         | The tax you're describing sounds like it would be illegal under
         | international law and tied up in courts for years if not
         | decades. I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea in
         | principle, but I don't understand why you would have to do that
         | first before taking much more achievable action. There are a
         | lot of people working on this problem, we can focus on quite a
         | bit at the same time.
        
       | whatever1 wrote:
       | Cool cool will the youth also return the money in their oil
       | pension funds?
        
         | avgcorrection wrote:
         | Step one of securing a "pension" is making sure that the world
         | is livable half a century from now. On that account their
         | priorities are correct.
        
           | whatever1 wrote:
           | Their pension needs to be liquidated to pay for reparations
           | and the externalities that oil production caused.
           | 
           | At least this is the Greenpeace standard for businesses.
        
             | avgcorrection wrote:
             | Okay then. Then that's what their next plan of action is. I
             | thought you were going for some kind of burn.
        
         | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
         | "We should improve society somewhat - Yet you participate in
         | society. Curious!" revisited
        
         | thendrill wrote:
         | The pension fund money is not real and will never be seen by
         | the population, it is all controlled by private hedge funds.
         | 
         | Retirement age in Norway is 70... And there are some rumors
         | about going to 72. Also there is talks of increasing taxes on
         | the pensionsts... So what is the point of having a pensions
         | fund if you are never going to retire...
        
           | kwhitefoot wrote:
           | There is no retirement age in Norway. You may start drawing
           | your pension at the age of 62 (unless you haven't contributed
           | enough) but you are not required or even expected to retire.
           | The 70 year limit is the one beyond which your employer can
           | force you to leave without cause.
        
       | burkaman wrote:
       | Title is a little misleading (for me at least), this is not one
       | of the many cases where a group of young people sued their
       | government for a broad violation of their rights. This is a more
       | narrow case where the plaintiffs said the government is supposed
       | to consider emissions impact when approving oil and gas projects,
       | and did not. There aren't really any youth directly involved.
       | 
       | The court didn't say Norway can't drill anymore, just that when
       | you're doing an environmental impact assessment of a new oil
       | field (which is required in Norway) you obviously have to assess
       | the impact of burning the oil. I don't think this is very
       | controversial.
        
         | downWidOutaFite wrote:
         | Natur og Ungdom is a youth group so I don't know why you say
         | youth aren't involved.
        
           | burkaman wrote:
           | Yes sorry you're right, I don't know what I was looking at.
           | Members of that group are 13-25.
        
         | bertil wrote:
         | > new oil field
         | 
         | I was surprised because I assumed Norway wouldn't open new oil
         | fields. I'd say it's "interesting," but what I actually mean
         | isn't publishable.
        
           | belval wrote:
           | Hot take, but I feel like Norway gets greenwashed a lot as
           | better than everywhere else, when they are basically a
           | northern Saudi Arabia in terms of exports with over 70% of
           | their exports being oil and gas.
        
             | Invictus0 wrote:
             | Norway is a beautiful modern liberal democracy, Saudi
             | Arabia is a theocratic desert dictatorship hellhole.
        
               | seb1204 wrote:
               | Having been to both countries I fully agree. However the
               | GP had a point in that the public image of Norway is
               | hydro power and 90% EVs nowadays. The fact that they are
               | a major oil and gas exporter is not as widespread.
        
           | tordrt wrote:
           | Why wouldnt Norway open new oil fields?
        
       | petre wrote:
       | I usually discover after years that these climate action
       | movements were actually sponsored by Russia. It has already
       | happened with the fracking. But then it's too late because
       | they've already produced effects.
        
         | burkaman wrote:
         | Can you link to some times this has happened in the past? I
         | searched and found some opinion pieces and quotes, but no
         | evidence yet.
        
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